The document summarizes the real estate market effects of the new US tax bill. It notes that home sales in San Francisco plummeted 49.3% year-over-year in December while prices rose 31.7% for homes and 7.9% for condos. The tax bill eliminates or caps popular deductions for mortgage interest, property/income taxes which will significantly impact Bay Area homeowners who pay high taxes. The effects of fewer deductions on housing demand and prices are uncertain but the market will be closely watched.

1. a call and let's discuss your situation
and your options.
The median price of single-family, re-
sale homes in San Francisco was up
31.7% year-over-year in December.
The median price of condos/townhomes
gained 7.9% over last December.
Home sales plummeted 49.3% from
last December and were down 8.0%
for the year.
Condo/townhome sales were down
5.2% from last December and were
down 3.5% for the year.
Multiple offers continue to be the
norm. The sales price to list price
ratio, or what buyers are paying over
what sellers are asking remains at
triple digits: 106.8% for homes and
102.4% for condos/townhomes.
The ratio has been over 100% for
homes since December 2012 and for
condos since February 2012.
Average days on market, the time it
takes from when a property is listed
for sale to when it goes under
contract, was twenty-eight for homes
and forth-four for condos/townhomes.
Sales momentum…
for homes dropped another 8.6 points
to –9.0. Sales momentum for
condos/townhomes rose 0.7 of a point
to –5.5.
Pricing momentum…
for single-family homes rose 2.2
points to +8.4. Pricing momentum for
condos/lofts gained 2.8 points to
+6.8.
Our momentum statistics are based
on 12-month moving averages to
eliminate monthly and seasonal
variations.
This is an extraordinarily tough
market for buyers. It's important to be
calm and realistic. If you don't know
what to do or where to begin, give me
AMSI Real Estate Services
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
(415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
http://www.amsires.com/
CA BRE #01403882
Robb Fleischer
ROBB FLEISCHER | RFLEISCHER@AMSIEMAIL.COM | HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/
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San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
Sales Pricing © 2018 rereport.com
Dec 17 Nov 17 Dec 16
Home Sales: 141 235 278
Median Price: 1,475,000$ 1,500,000$ 1,155,000$
Average Price: 1,951,798$ 1,771,937$ 1,482,342$
SP/LP: 106.8% 111.5% 107.4%
Days on Market: 28 26 43
Dec 17 Nov 17 Dec 16
Condo Sales: 237 268 250
Median Price: 1,135,000$ 1,247,500$ 925,000$
Average Price: 1,283,901$ 1,384,788$ 1,189,712$
SP/LP: 102.4% 103.9% 101.3%
Days on Market: 44 36 48
(Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)

2. The real estate market will be among the sectors
most impacted by the tax bill.
The legislation calls for reduced tax rates for individu-
als with higher standard deductions but institutes
caps on mortgage interest deductions and the deduc-
tion of state and local taxes. The individual cuts ex-
pire in 2025.
How it will shake out is still unknown, but many real
estate experts have been up in arms about the
changes, with the National Association of Realtors
(NAR) initially warning that it could lower home prices
by up to 10% in every state.
The new $10,000 cap on how much local and state
tax can be deducted from federal income taxes will
have an outsized impact on the Bay Area.
Take couples with enough adjusted gross income to
put them in the state’s 9.3% category, that’s income
between $105,258 and $537,499, the state income
tax ranges from $9,786 to $49,987.
Now, let’s get to property taxes. In San Francisco,
the effective tax rate is about 1.2%. Let’s apply that
to the median price of homes sold in 2017, which
was about $1,700,000. Property taxes on homes that
were sold for that amount, or assessed for that
amount, equals $20,400.
Yeah, the new tax bill will not be friendly to home-
owners in the Bay Area, and we haven’t even added
in sales tax paid.
In another blow to future homeowners, the deduction
for mortgage interest has been lowered from
$1,000,000 to $750,000. Existing mortgages will be
grandfathered in. That might give people less incen-
tive to move.
Interest on home equity debt is no longer deductible,
unless the proceeds are used in a trade or business
acquisition or to improve rentals. Home equity debt
includes refinances on your primary or secondary
residences as well as HELOCs.
If the tax bill does result in fewer people moving,
inventory will continue to by abysmal. On the other
hand, the loss of the tax deduction and the lowering
of the mortgage interest deduction will probably cur-
tail demand.
At this point, all we can do is keep a watch on the
market to see how this all plays out.
Although we have cleaned this information from relia-
ble sources, the IRS and CPAs have only had a few
weeks to go through the tax bill. They’re still trying to
figure out all the nuances.
(Continued on page 4)
ROBB FLEISCHER
AMSI REAL ESTATE SERVICES
(415) 447-2009
RFLEISCHER@AMSIEMAIL.COM
CA BRE #01403882
The chart above shows the National month-
ly average for 30-year fixed rate mortgages
as compiled by http://www.freddiemac.com/.
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30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,475,000$ 1,951,798$ 141 28 106.8% 27.7% 31.7% -49.3% -1.7% 10.2% -40.0%
D1: Northwest 1,970,900$ 2,214,170$ 10 48 103.2% 13.0% 6.7% -50.0% 2.4% 14.2% -41.2%
D2: Central West 1,460,000$ 1,533,833$ 24 24 115.3% 23.5% 25.8% -29.4% 14.1% 13.0% -35.1%
D3: Southwest 1,210,000$ 1,206,000$ 8 19 119.7% -10.8% -6.7% -57.9% -6.9% -9.4% -52.9%
D4: Twin Peaks 1,575,250$ 1,856,987$ 19 24 109.8% 27.2% 21.6% -40.6% -0.6% 14.1% -48.6%
D5: Central 2,300,000$ 2,582,053$ 19 25 102.6% 21.1% 20.1% -56.8% -10.2% -0.8% -51.3%
D6: Central North 3,800,000$ 3,800,000$ 1 100 90.6% 56.7% 56.7% 0.0% 42.5% 49.2% -75.0%
D7: North 4,247,500$ 5,061,875$ 8 55 95.1% -32.6% -17.0% 33.3% 4.6% 13.6% -20.0%
D8: Northeast ######### ######### 1 0 0.0% 91.0% 91.0% 0.0% 422.3% 472.7% -66.7%
D9: Central East 1,579,500$ 1,612,222$ 18 20 113.3% 12.8% 11.7% -5.3% -3.4% -8.8% -21.7%
D10: Southeast 1,010,000$ 1,066,515$ 33 25 116.6% 19.2% 24.2% 3.1% 9.2% 10.4% -29.8%
December Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change
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San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2018 rereport.com

3. ROBB FLEISCHER
AMSI REAL ESTATE SERVICES
(415) 447-2009
RFLEISCHER@AMSIEMAIL.COM
CA BRE #014038820
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San Francisco Homes: Days on Market
© 2018 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: SalesMomentum
Sales Pricing © 2018 rereport.com
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San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
Ave Med Units © 2018 rereport.com
Unit
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco 1,135,000$ 1,283,901$ 237 44 102.4% 22.7% 7.9% -5.2% -9.0% -7.3% -11.6%
D1: Northwest 1,025,000$ 1,178,750$ 12 49 103.9% 6.2% -1.3% 33.3% -13.7% -6.5% -14.3%
D2: Central West 1,250,000$ 1,250,000$ 1 55 104.3% 38.9% 16.6% -85.7% 34.4% 25.4% -66.7%
D3: Southwest 1,332,326$ 1,335,815$ 4 14 86.9% 90.3% 54.2% 33.3% 54.0% 54.4% 100.0%
D4: Twin Peaks 832,500$ 1,003,500$ 8 50 106.1% 27.4% 53.6% 300.0% 36.5% 37.7% 100.0%
D5: Central 1,377,000$ 1,361,133$ 30 40 109.7% 10.2% 5.9% -26.8% -5.8% -7.9% -25.0%
D6: Central North 1,110,000$ 1,167,222$ 22 39 107.6% -1.3% 5.5% -45.0% -14.0% -10.6% -31.3%
D7: North 1,500,000$ 1,705,261$ 23 38 102.3% 7.9% 13.7% -28.1% -19.0% -26.3% -17.9%
D8: Northeast 1,185,000$ 1,395,556$ 34 55 0.0% 29.9% 27.1% -26.1% -1.3% -2.8% -24.4%
D9: Central East 1,065,000$ 1,208,289$ 95 43 101.3% 16.8% 19.9% 35.7% -8.1% 2.8% 1.1%
D10: Southeast 999,000$ 985,429$ 7 51 97.5% 24.6% 22.9% 250.0% 19.2% 20.8% 133.3%
December Sales Statistics
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts)
Prices Yearly Change Monthly Change

4. Robb Fleischer
AMSI Real Estate Services
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Please discuss the new rules with your tax
adviser to determine how the changes will
impact your personal circumstances. This
article may not be relied upon as tax or
legal advice.
(Continued from page 2)
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San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
© 2018 rereport.com
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San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median SalesPrice Change
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