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Risks and Market Scenarios
From the 2022 Midterm Elections
Featuring Matthew Bartolini, CFA, CAIA
Weighing the Risks with Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™
2
GOOD
S+P 500
2400
-35 %
S+P 500
4745
+30 %
S+P 500
4190
+15%
UGLY
BEAR MARKET COULD BE
SIMILAR TO ‘70S NIFTY FIFTY
~50% LOSS
STAGFLATION ECONOMY
AVERAGE GAIN AFTER SIMILAR
BEARISH SENTIMENT EXTREMES
ECONOMY AVOIDS
STAGFLATION
TYPICAL RETURN AFTER MID-
TERM ELECTION
MIDTERM ELECTION 2022
BASELIN
E
TYPICAL POST-
ELECTION REACTION
10Y
4.50
+75 bps
10Y
4.00
+30 bps
10Y
2.25
-150 bps
POST-ELECTION
RALLY ON
STEROIDS
ECONOMY BIGGER
THAN ELECTION
CPI
6.0%
-2.25%
CPI
4.0%
-4.25%
CPI
8.0%
-0.25%
3
Disclosures
Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make
recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee
future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed
reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties
with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.
Thank You

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  • 1. Risks and Market Scenarios From the 2022 Midterm Elections Featuring Matthew Bartolini, CFA, CAIA Weighing the Risks with Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™
  • 2. 2 GOOD S+P 500 2400 -35 % S+P 500 4745 +30 % S+P 500 4190 +15% UGLY BEAR MARKET COULD BE SIMILAR TO ‘70S NIFTY FIFTY ~50% LOSS STAGFLATION ECONOMY AVERAGE GAIN AFTER SIMILAR BEARISH SENTIMENT EXTREMES ECONOMY AVOIDS STAGFLATION TYPICAL RETURN AFTER MID- TERM ELECTION MIDTERM ELECTION 2022 BASELIN E TYPICAL POST- ELECTION REACTION 10Y 4.50 +75 bps 10Y 4.00 +30 bps 10Y 2.25 -150 bps POST-ELECTION RALLY ON STEROIDS ECONOMY BIGGER THAN ELECTION CPI 6.0% -2.25% CPI 4.0% -4.25% CPI 8.0% -0.25%
  • 3. 3 Disclosures Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results. Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.