1. Presentation to the Legislative and Regulatory Policy Committee Missouri Association of Realtors® September 25, 2008 Lodge of Four Seasons Jed Smith Managing Director for Quantitative Research NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® The Changing Real Estate Market Trends and Forecasts

4. Annual Existing-Home Sales Includes Single Family, Condos, Coops Home sales have retreated back to pre-boom years, which was then considered to be at healthy levels. In thousand units EXCESSIVE BOOM Source: NAR

5. Recent Monthly National Existing-Home Sales SAAR: A drop from over 6 million to 5 million In thousand units Soft but Stable Sales Source: NAR

6. Missouri: Existing Home Sales Source: NAR

8. Comparison of Three Indexes Trends in National Prices

9. National Home Price Growth Total Homes, Median Sales Price Source: NAR % change from a year ago

10. Missouri Median Home Price Growth % change from a year ago Source: NAR; Data for 2008 are based on first two qtrs.

11. NVAR Median Price Divided by Median Fairfax Household Income Based on NVAR and BEA data

12. Mortgage Obligation Manageable Median as Percent of Income Source: NAR %

13. Mortgage Obligation to Income Historically High in Some Markets Miami Source: NAR

14. Under-Priced Markets With Affordable Mortgage Obligation to Income Source: NAR U.S. Historic Average Similar Trends in Vast Part of Middle America

16. Consumer Confidence Negative Housing, Economic, Financial News, Uncertainties

17. Consumer Confidence--Expectations Slight Upturn

19. Subprime Loan Exposure Source: NAR Estimate

20. Foreclosed Homes Source: NAR Estimate

21. Foreclosure Rates by Loan Type 2008 Q1 % Source: MBA

22. Foreclosure Rate Comparisons (All Loans, 2008 Q2) % Source: MBA

25. GDP Growth % annualized growth rate Source: BEA

26. National Unemployment Rate % Source: BLS

27. Stock Market S&P 500 Index Source: NYSE

28. Single-Family Housing Starts (Major fall – but, good trend to control inventory) Source: Census In thousand units

29. U.S. Job Gains – Now Negative Source: BLS 12-month payroll job changes in thousands

30. Inflation: A Potential Issue (Core CPI Inflation) % change from a year ago

32. Mortgage Rates Source: FHFB

33. Construction Spending Source: Census $ million

34. Employee Compensation % Source: BLS

35. Dollar vs. Euro U.S. Exports Increasingly Competitive Source: BLS

36. Net Exports Goods and Services Some Improvement Current Year Dollars Source: BEA Billions

37. Big Worry - Oil Price Europe: Brent Spot Market Source: Haver $ per barrel

38. Economic Outlook 2007 2008 2009 GDP 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% CPI Inflation 2.9% 3.8% 1.6% Job Growth 1.1% -0.1% 1% Unemployment Rate 4.6% 5.5% 6.0% 10-year Treasury 4.6% 4.0% 4.5%

39. Housing Affordability Index (Median Income/Qualifying Income) * 100 Source: NAR

40. Existing-Home Inventory (From 2 million to 4.5 million; but most are owner-occupied) Source: NAR

41. New Home Inventory (Already Topped Out) Source: Census

43. Pent-Up Demand ? 2005 2007 Comment Total Home Sales (new and existing) 8.4 million 6.5 million 5.1 million in 2008 Jobs (in October) 133.7 million 137.6 million 137.6 million, 2 nd quarter 2008 Wage + Salary (in October) $5.7 trillion $6.4 trillion $6.6 trillion Household Wealth (3 rd quarter) $51 trillion (3 rd quarter) $59 trillion (3 rd quarter) $58.2 trillion, 2 nd quarter, 2008 Home Prices $219,600 $219,000 $215,000, July 2008 Mortgage Rates 5.9% 6.3% 6.2% for 2008