Greek Market Update February 2016

2
Greek Equity Research February 2016
Greek Market Update
Natasha Roumantzi
Tel: +30 210 335 4065
Email: nroumantzi@piraeus-sec.gr
George Doukas
Tel: +30 210335 4093
Email: gdoukas@piraeus-sec.gr
Iakovos Kourtesis
Tel: +30 210335 4083
Email: kourtesis@piraeus-sec.gr
Please see last page for important disclosures and analyst certification.

3
Table of contents
Key Investment Considerations
2015 politics & the market
Politics remain the main risk
Macros remain weak despite early signs of recovery
Non-Financials seem attractive
Company Section
Aegean Airlines (AGNr.AT)
Athens Exchange Group (EXCr.AT)
Autohellas (AUTr.AT)
Coca Cola HBC (EEEr.AT)
Folli Follie Group (HDFr.AT)
Fourlis (FRL.AT)
Frigoglass (FRIr.AT)
Hellenic Telecoms (OTEr.AT)
Jumbo (BABr.AT)
Motor Oil (MORr.AT)
OPAP (OPAr.AT)
PPC (DEHr.AT)
Titan Cement (TTNr.AT)
Piraeus Securities Universe
Important Disclosures
Page
4
5-7
8
9-11
12-18
19
20-22
23-25
26-28
29-31
32-34
35-37
38-40
41-43
44-46
47-49
50-52
53-55
56-58
59

4
Key Investment Considerations
 We update our Top Pick list, which includes Motor Oil, OTE, FFGROUP and Jumbo. MOH enjoys a favorable benchmark margin
environment, as well as favorable FX dynamics. OTE combines attractive valuation multiples with low leverage, produces at least
Eur0.5 bn of free cash flow per year and sets to benefit from rising broadband penetration. FFGRPOUP offers exposure to
growing markets such as the Chinese one and attractive valuations due to recent stock weakness. Jumbo enjoys solid
fundamentals, significant market share gains in Greece and growing international presence due to recent entrance in the
Romanian market
 Apart from our top picks, we have Outperform ratings on Aegean Airlines, ATHEX, OPAP and Fourlis. In the banking sector, we
have an Outperform rating on Alpha Bank
 The valuation of our non-bank universe implies an upside potential of 19.8%, while the DDM model generates an upside of
14.7%
 A positive contribution by the banking sector could render the Greek market as the best performing market in 2016. Greek
banks trade at a c70% discount to their tangible book, while they also enjoy capital ratios of around 19%. A swift conclusion of
the programme review followed by a restructuring of Greek debt could lead bank valuations to double
 Further, OECD leading indicator points to a rebound of the economic activity in Greece. The recent upgrade of Greece by S&P is
another positive signal
 Positive triggers to our valuation include a) the successful and timely completion of the review of the Greek programme; b) a
firm resolution of the Greek debt issue; c) better than currently anticipated economy dynamics with key catalyst being the
privatization programme (i.e. regional airports, ports, Hellinikon and energy market), efficient absorption of EU funds and
possible consumption recovery supported by lower fuel costs; and d) effective management of the banking sector’s NPLs
 Apart from the volatility of the global environment, the key domestic down-side risk is political instability triggered by the
implementation of politically sensitive reforms such as the pension reform

5
2015, a year to remember
• 25 January: 1st Elections, Syriza wins
36.3% of the vote and makes a
coalition govt. with ANEL .
• 24 February: 1st agreement between
Greece and its creditors. Further
negotiations needed to clarify issues.
• 26 June: 4-month negotiations bear
no fruits; PM Tsipras calls a
referendum on creditors’ proposals
for 5 July.
• 28 June: Capital controls initiated;
Athens Exchange to remain closed as
of 29 June.
• 5 July: Referendum yields a 61% No
vote.
• 3 August : ATHEX reopens.
• 14 August: Parliament approves draft
law enacting 3rd bailout.
• 20 August: PM Tsipras resigns.
• 20 September: 2nd elections, Syriza
wins 35.5% of the vote and forms a
coalition govt. with ANEL.
• 31 October: comprehensive
assessment of Greek banks published
• 17 November-14 December : bank
recaps
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2015 in a chart | politics and the market
ATHEX Composite Greek Banks Piraeus Universe
1st elections
Capital controls-ATHEX
ceases trading
ATHEX reopens
2nd elections
Sources: Factset, Bloomberg, Piraeus Securities

6
Increased political risk, the capital controls and
the weakness of the banking sector were the
key highlights in 2015 that led to weakness
across Greek assets.
A tumultuous year for Greek equities and GGBs alike…
-23.6%
-7.5%
8.5%
12.7%
9.6% 6.8%
-7.2%
10.7%
33.5%
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4 ATHEX 2015 performance vs peers
Sources: Factset, Bloomberg, Piraeus Securities
6.00
9.00
12.00
15.00
18.00
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000 ATHEX GI vs 10Y GGB yield 2015
ATHEX GI - Left axis 10y GGB yield - right axis
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
ATHEX Composite vs EuroStoxx600 | 2015 performance
Greece ATHEX Composite STOXX Europe 600 (Rebased)
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
MSCI Greece vs MSCI Europe | 2015 performance
MSCI Greece MSCI Europe (Rebased)

7
…as Banks had a tough year, while non-financials had a much better picture
Greek non-financials had a much better performance
with our non-banks universe retreating by c4%, while
banks literally collapsed before recuperating some of
the losses at the very back end of the year, cutting the
losses to 37.3%. The General Index fell by 23.6% and
the FTSE Large Cap by 30.8%.
Sources: Factset, Bloomberg, ATHEX, Piraeus Securities
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
ATHEX Composite ex-banks vs Greek banks 2015
ATHEX Composite ex-banks Greek banks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180 PS Universe vs ATHEX Composite 2000-2015
Universe ATHEX Composite
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
PS Universe vs ATHEX Composite 2015
Universe ATHEX Composite

8
Politics remain a risk; review of the programme the key focus in the short term
Main short to mid-term challenges
• Pass the Pension reform from the
Parliament
• Resolve the migrant standoff
between EU and Greece
• Pass the review of the Greek
programme
If successful…
• ….will lead to a repricing of Greek assets
higher
• It could at a later stage instigate the
initiation of the talks for a possible
restructuring of the Greek debt
If not successful…
• …will lead to an increase of political risk
• Could shake the foundations of the
Greek coalition government and
possibly lead to early elections
• Will put downward pressure on Greek
assets
Sources: ELSTAT, Piraeus Securities
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1932
1936
1940
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
Greece | Pension reform driven by adverse
demographic trends
Marriages/1,000 persons Births
Syriza (left);
145
ANEL (right);
10
New
Democracy
(centre-right);
75
Golden Dawn
(far right); 18
PASOK
(Centre-left);
17
KKE
(Communists)
; 15 ToPotami
(centre-left);
11
Centrists
(centre); 9
Greek parliament | parties and # of MPs
Syriza and Anel are the
coalition partners in the
Greek government
S&P already discounts the successful review of the Greek programme by
end-March 2016. In this context Greece was upgraded to B- from CCC+
with a Stable outlook on 22 January 2016.

9
Greek Macros remain weak; there are though some early signs of recovery #1
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Average CPI 1960-2015
• Annual CPI remains in negative
territory continuously since March
2013
• Expectations for 2016 call for
marginally positive inflation
• Low oil prices and tight fiscal policy
should keep price growth at bay
• Unemployment remains at elevated levels
especially in the 15-29 age bracket
• Recent fall in unemployment is mainly driven
by the tourism sector and an increase in part
time employment (c9% of total)
75.0
85.0
95.0
105.0
115.0
125.0
135.0
Jan00
Nov00
Sep01
Jul02
May03
Mar04
Jan05
Nov05
Sep06
Jul07
May08
Mar09
Jan10
Nov10
Sep11
Jul12
May13
Mar14
Jan15
Greece | Seasonally adj. industrial production
index 2000-2015
• Industrial production remains at depressed
levels
• All main industrial groupings remain on
negative trajectory although energy
production should pick up in the following
quarters due to low natgas prices
• PMI turning to marginal growth territory
(50.2) first time in 16 months in December
before retreating to 50 in January
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1Q2001
3Q2001
1Q2002
3Q2002
1Q2003
3Q2003
1Q2004
3Q2004
1Q2005
3Q2005
1Q2006
3Q2006
1Q2007
3Q2007
1Q2008
3Q2008
1Q2009
3Q2009
1Q2010
3Q2010
1Q2011
3Q2011
1Q2012
3Q2012
1Q2013
3Q2013
1Q2014
3Q2014
1Q2015
3Q2015
Greece|Unemploymentrate(%)2001-2015
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
1Q 2014 2Q2014 3Q2014 4Q2014 1Q 2015 2Q2015 3Q2015
Greece|Unemploymentrate(%)1Q2014-3Q2015
Sources: EU, IMF, ELSTAT, AMECO, Markit, Piraeus Securities
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
1/31/13
3/29/13
5/31/13
7/31/13
9/30/13
11/29/13
1/31/14
3/31/14
5/30/14
7/31/14
9/30/14
11/28/14
1/30/15
3/31/15
5/29/15
7/31/15
9/30/15
11/30/15
1/31/16
Greek PMI returns to Neutral territory

10
Greek Macros remain weak; there are though some early signs of reversal #2
• Wages for the whole country are at 2
year highs…
• …but domestic demand is still
floundering and is not expected to
grow before 2017
• Construction shows some signs of
improvement mainly due to public
investments
• January-September 2015 building volume and
surface was up by 40.7% and 10.4%
respectively with private activity down in the
low to mid single digits
• Significant fall in productivity from peak to
trough
• No productivity gains in the past 2 years,
while capacity utilization remains at very low
levels..
• …and gross capital formation is very low but
with limited (if any) downside.
Sources: EU, IMF, ELSTAT, AMECO, Piraeus Securities
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
1Q2006
3Q2006
1Q2007
3Q2007
1Q2008
3Q2008
1Q2009
3Q2009
1Q2010
3Q2010
1Q2011
3Q2011
1Q2012
3Q2012
1Q2013
3Q2013
1Q2014
3Q2014
1Q2015
3Q2015
Seasonally adj. Wage Index 2006-2015 (2012=100)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
Total Productivity Greece vs Euro-area 1995-2015
(2010=100)
Greece EuroArea
-18.3%
peak to
trough
flat since 2013
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
2017e
2016e
2015e
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
Greece vs Euro-area | domestic demand YoY chg
Greece Euro-area
2008-15 demand
declined by 35.3%
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
1/1/2000
1/10/2000
1/7/2001
1/4/2002
1/1/2003
1/10/2003
1/7/2004
1/4/2005
1/1/2006
1/10/2006
1/7/2007
1/4/2008
1/1/2009
1/10/2009
1/7/2010
1/4/2011
1/1/2012
1/10/2012
1/7/2013
1/4/2014
1/1/2015
1/10/2015
Capacity Utilization (%)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
4Q2000
3Q2001
2Q2002
1Q2003
4Q2003
3Q2004
2Q2005
1Q2006
4Q2006
3Q2007
2Q2008
1Q2009
4Q2009
3Q2010
2Q2011
1Q2012
4Q2012
3Q2013
2Q2014
1Q2015
Greece | Construction production index 4Q2000-
3Q2015
4Q MA
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0% Gross capital formation (% of GDP, 4Q MA)
Government Households Business (non-financial)

11
OECD Composite leading indicator points to a rebound in economic activity
• After the plunge of the index during the 2015
as a result of the spike in political risk,
sentiment now points to a rebound in
economic activity
• Greece seems to have built expectations of
outperformance vs the rest of the South and
the wider EuroArea.
Sources: OECD, Piraeus Securities
97.5
98
98.5
99
99.5
100
100.5
101
101.5
102
102.5
103
OECD Composite leading indicators
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Portugal
Euro area (19
countries)

12
On historical data, the Greek market does not seem to be attractive …
• Earnings yield for the market now stands at
7.2% marginally lower than the long term
median of 7.6%. On the other hand GGB yields
remain elevated and limit the upside potential
of equities.
• Schiller P/E remains well above long term
averages on the back of a combination of
weak earnings and deflation; however, the
Greek multiple stands well below global levels
Sources: Factset, Bloomberg, ATHEX, Effect, Piraeus Securities
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1/01/2001
6/11/2001
11/19/2001
4/29/2002
10/07/2002
3/17/2003
8/25/2003
2/02/2004
7/12/2004
12/20/2004
5/30/2005
11/07/2005
4/17/2006
9/25/2006
3/05/2007
8/13/2007
1/21/2008
6/30/2008
12/08/2008
5/18/2009
10/26/2009
4/05/2010
9/13/2010
2/21/2011
8/01/2011
1/09/2012
6/18/2012
11/26/2012
5/06/2013
10/14/2013
3/24/2014
9/01/2014
2/09/2015
7/20/2015
12/28/2015
ATHEX dividend yield (ex-banks) vs GGB 10Y yield
Dividend yield 10Y GGB yield
0
10
20
30
40
01/01/01
06/11/01
11/19/01
04/29/02
10/07/02
03/17/03
08/25/03
02/02/04
07/12/04
12/20/04
05/30/05
11/07/05
04/17/06
09/25/06
03/05/07
08/13/07
01/21/08
06/30/08
12/08/08
05/18/09
10/26/09
04/05/10
09/13/10
02/21/11
08/01/11
01/09/12
06/18/12
11/26/12
05/06/13
10/14/13
03/24/14
09/01/14
02/09/15
07/20/15
12/28/15
ATHEX GI Earnings Yield vs GGBs yield
GGB yield Earnings Yield

13
• The plunge of the market during
January, widened the P/E discount to
18.5% vs the long term median from
14.3% at the end of the 2015
• The EV/EBITDA discount vs the
median stands at 11.9%, largely
unchanged vs a month ago
• Schiller P/E of our universe has de-
rated since the highs of last year and
is now hovering around its mean
• In all, the market seems to have
incorporated some EPS downgrades
…Much better picture for our non-financials universe #1
Sources: Factset, Bloomberg, ATHEX, Effect, Piraeus Securities
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Piraeus non-banks Universe; Schiller P/E 2010-now
Schiller P/E Median
0
5
10
15
20
25
1/31/2000
7/31/2000
1/31/2001
7/31/2001
1/31/2002
7/31/2002
1/31/2003
7/31/2003
1/30/2004
7/30/2004
1/31/2005
7/29/2005
1/31/2006
7/31/2006
1/31/2007
7/31/2007
1/31/2008
7/31/2008
1/30/2009
7/31/2009
1/29/2010
7/30/2010
1/31/2011
7/29/2011
1/31/2012
7/31/2012
1/31/2013
7/31/2013
1/31/2014
7/31/2014
1/30/2015
7/31/2015
1/29/2016
Consensus 12m Fwd P/E- PS non financials universe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2/29/2000
7/31/2000
12/29/2000
5/31/2001
10/31/2001
3/29/2002
8/30/2002
1/31/2003
6/30/2003
11/28/2003
4/30/2004
9/30/2004
2/28/2005
7/29/2005
12/30/2005
5/31/2006
10/31/2006
3/30/2007
8/31/2007
1/31/2008
6/30/2008
11/28/2008
4/30/2009
9/30/2009
2/26/2010
7/30/2010
12/31/2010
5/31/2011
10/31/2011
3/30/2012
8/31/2012
1/31/2013
6/28/2013
11/29/2013
4/30/2014
9/30/2014
2/27/2015
7/31/2015
12/31/2015
Consensus 12M Fwd EV/EBITDA-PS non financials
universe

14
• The low double digit discount in terms of
P/E and EV/EBITDA expands significantly
when we look on P/B and P/CF,
suggesting concerns over the balance
sheet valuation and the sustainability of
cash flows
• Comparing our universe with the Greek
corporate bond space, we see equities on
the brink of entering the Buy zone
Much better picture for our non-financials universe #2
Sources: Factset, Bloomberg, ATHEX, Effect, Piraeus Securities, Piraeus Bank (Piraeus Bank’s proprietary corporate bond index includes 15 issues from CCHBC, OTE, Hellenic Petroleum, Intralot, Frigoglass, PPC, Titan, Motor Oil).
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Earnings Yield vs Bond Yield | PS non banks universe vs
Piraeus Bank Corporate Bond Index
<2stdv Sell
>2stdv Buy
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jan-00
Sep-00
May-01
Jan-02
Sep-02
May-03
Jan-04
Sep-04
May-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
May-15
Jan-16
Consensus 12m Fwd P/B- PS non financials universe
P/B Median
0
5
10
15
20
Jan-00
Sep-00
May-01
Jan-02
Sep-02
May-03
Jan-04
Sep-04
May-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
May-15
Jan-16
Consensus 12m Fwd P/CF-PS non financials universe
P/CF Median

15
• The operating margin seems
to have reached a plateau and
slowly moving on an uptrend
• Deleveraging is progressing for
our universe
• The broader market though
remains relatively leveraged
Operating performance on the mend…
Sources: Factset, Bloomberg, ATHEX, Effect, Piraeus Securities,
0
1
2
3
4
5
Net debt/EBITDA, PS Universe vs ATHEX Composite (ex-
banks)
PS Universe (ex-banks) ATHEX Composite (ex-banks)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-00
Sep-00
May-01
Jan-02
Sep-02
May-03
Jan-04
Sep-04
May-05
Jan-06
Sep-06
May-07
Jan-08
Sep-08
May-09
Jan-10
Sep-10
May-11
Jan-12
Sep-12
May-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
May-15
Interest coverage PS Universe (ex-Banks) vs ATHEX Composite
(ex-banks)
Universe (ex-banks)Interest coverage ATHEX (ex-banks) interest coverage)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1/31/2000
9/29/2000
5/31/2001
1/31/2002
9/30/2002
5/30/2003
1/30/2004
9/30/2004
5/31/2005
1/31/2006
9/29/2006
5/31/2007
1/31/2008
9/30/2008
5/29/2009
1/29/2010
9/30/2010
5/31/2011
1/31/2012
9/28/2012
5/31/2013
1/31/2014
9/30/2014
5/29/2015
1/29/2016
PS Universe | EBITDA margin seesm to have stabilized
EBITDA margin
Median

16
We see a 19.8% upside derived from our Non-Financial universe
• We see a c6% upside from end-2015
levels based on our target market caps
and 19.8% based on 22 January
closing prices. Note that our universe
grew 5% last year, while excluding
CCHBC it was down 4%
• From our outperform list we favour
Motor Oil, OTE, Jumbo and FFGRP
53.10%
26.20%
14.50% 14.00% 13.20% 12.60%
1.50%
-1.00%
-6.80% -9.00%
-28.50%
-34.50%
-40.00%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
2015 performance | PS non financials universe
Piraeus Securities Universe valuation (non-financials)
current price
(COB 22-Jan-
2016) Market cap. PT
number of
shares
Target
Market
cap.
Total
Expected
return
Aegean 6.89 492.1 8.50 71.4 607.0 24.6%
ATHEX 4.54 296.8 5.40 65.4 353.0 20.8%
Autohellas 10.95 133.1 10.00 12.2 121.6 -8.1%
CCHBC 18.25 6,712.4 17.00 367.8 6,252.6 -6.7%
Frigoglass 1.62 82.0 2.40 50.6 121.4 48.1%
Fourlis 2.56 130.5 3.85 51.0 196.3 50.4%
FFGROUP * 12.95 867.0 22.40 66.9 1,499.6 73.0%
Jumbo * 9.76 1,327.9 11.80 136.1 1,605.5 20.9%
Motor Oil * 8.91 987.1 14.00 110.8 1,551.0 57.8%
OTE* 7.60 3,725.1 10.20 490.2 4,999.5 34.3%
OPAP 6.39 2,038.4 9.00 319.0 2,871.0 42.5%
PPC 3.32 770.2 3.70 232.0 858.4 13.2%
Total expected upside 17,562.6 21,037.0 19.8%
Source: Piraeus Securities, Greek Equity Research
* Top picks

17
Our DDM model generates a 14.7% upside
Piraeus Sec Non-Banks Universe: 2-Stage Dividend Discount Model (2-Stage DDM)
Inputs Comments
Current Output
Earnings2014 1,385 PS 2015e PV of Dividends during high growth phase1,597
Dividend payout 43.8% PS 2015e PV of Terminal value 18,547
Dividend2014 607 PS 2015e Total Value 20,144
Market capitalization 17,562 Based on the closing prices of 22 Jan., 2016 Current Value 17,562
Upside/(Downside) 14.7%
Phase I: High growth
Expected growth 1.0% 2011-2016 EPS CAGR
Period (years) 4 We assume a 4-year high growth period
Dividend payout 43.8% Assuming an unchanged payout
Risk free rate 0.4% Yield of the 10-year German government bond (EU risk free)
Global risk premium 5.8% EMRP used for developed markets
Country premium 14.3% Assuming 910 basis points bond spread and 1.5x higher volatility for equities
EMRP 20.1%
beta 1.0
Cost of equity 20.4%
Phase II: Stable growth
Expected growth 0.4% Drops significantly (equals the risk free rate)
Period perpetuity
Dividend payout 94.3% Based on fundamentals (Payout = 1 - g/ROE)
Risk free rate 0.4% Unchanged relative to Stage I
Global risk premium 5.8% Unchanged relative to Stage I
Country premium 0.0% Drops to zero
EMRP 5.8% Drops significantly
beta 1.0 Unchanged relative to Stage I
Cost of equity 6.2% Drops significantly
Source: Piraeus Sec Research Department Note: Figures in EURO million unless otherwise stated
Word of caution
The 2-stage DDM bestapplies in cases where there is high
growth potential for a number of years prior tothestable-
growth phase, companies pay dividends that approximate FCFE,
and leverage is stable. As such, our valuation exercise is highly
dependent onthe level of growth projected for both phases, the
length of the high growthphase,the dividend payouts, as well
as the costof equity (risk) assumptions that wemake.

18
We are more cautious than consensus
We stand 5.5% below 2016
consensus mainly due to lower
estimates on PPC and OPAP.
OPAP
PPC
OTE
MOH
EXAE
BELAFFGRP
AEGNOTOEL
FRIGO
CCHFOYRK!
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
-4.00 -2.00 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00
Salesgrowth2016/2015chg(%)
EBITDA margin 2016/2015 chg (pps)
Consensus estimates on PS non financial universe
Sources: Bloomberg, Factset, Piraeus Securities -100.0% -50.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0%
FFGRP GA
FOYRK GA
EXAE GA
CCH LN
AEGN GA
FRIGO GA
OPAP GA
PPC GA
BELA GA
HTO GA
MOH GA
OTOEL GA
Piraeus Securities 2016e estimates vs consensus
0.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
Consensus Net profit 15e Consensus Net profit 16e Consensus Net profit 17e
Piraeus Securities below consensus
6.8% below
Consensus
5.5% below
consensus

19
Company Section

20
3Q 2015 review: Q3 revenues landed at EUR 388.5mn (+11.8%) EBITDAR at EUR 132.3mn
(+17.5%, despite a 9.4% growth YoY in cash costs) and net profit at EUR 67.1mn (+7.2%).
We were expecting revenues at EUR 366mn , EBITDAR at EUR 116.1mn and net profit at
EUR 59.9mn. Given that cash costs were just 2% higher than our estimates or just EUR
5.8mn higher (EUR 290.6mn vs. PSe EUR 284.8mn) the large delta vs. our estimates is
mainly attributed to the much higher top line, which in turn is due to the much lower
decline in the yield (-8%).
Outlook: We are positive on the name due to favourable jet fuel dynamics and
expectations of continuing growth in inbound traffic. Aegean has been resilient, managing
to weather a very difficult period for Greece essentially unscathed, maintaining strong
profitability, good cash flow generation and a healthy balance sheet. The outlook for the
Greek tourism remains positive with the migrant crisis the main downside risk.
Valuation/estimates: We expect Aegean to expand its operating margin in 2016 due to
top line expansion and lower jet fuel costs. Yields should continue falling due to
competition from LCCs and mainly Ryanair. In all we see Aegean expanding its bottom line
in the low double digits. Valuation-wise we, our blended DCF/multiples exercise returns a
target price of EUR 8.5/share, which implies a total upside of 32%, hence we remain
Buyers on the stock. On our target price, the stock is trading 7.3x P/E 2016e, broadly in
line with European flag carriers.
Valuation triggers: Further decrease in jet fuel prices, macro improvement, which will
lead to a strong pick up in domestic demand, loosening of competition from foreign
operators, EUR strengthening vs the USD.
Downside risks: escalation of the migrant crisis, which could have a negative spill over to
inbound tourism, further increase in competition, spike in jet fuel prices, further
strengthening of the USD, weak tourism
Company description: Aegean Airlines is operating 58 aircrafts in 134 destinations of
which 100 are international and 34 are domestic. The airline will have a capacity of 15mn
available seats in 2015 and we estimate that will post a passenger traffic of 11.5mn
passengers.
Aegean Airlines (AGNr.AT) |Low jet fuel price to support profitability
Company data
Market cap. (EUR mn) 492.06
Closing price – Jan.22 (EUR ) 6.89
# of shares (mn) 71.42
Free float (%) 33%
Target Price (EUR) 8.50
Dividend Yield (%) 8.70%
Total Return (%) 32.07%
Rating Outperform
Ratio analysis 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
P/E (x)
6.13 6.54 5.92 4.76
P/E on Target Price (x)
7.56 8.07 7.31 5.88
P/BV (x)
2.27 2.80 2.33 1.93
AEV/EBITDAR (x)
5.10 5.38 5.03 4.50
EV/EBITDA (x)
2.89 2.86 2.27 1.72
Dividend yield
10.11% 8.72% 9.63% 11.97%
ROA
14.32% 12.79% 13.28% 15.10%
ROIC*
11.33% 8.09% 8.43% 9.93%
Key Operating metrics
Total pax (mn) 10.14 11.58 12.65 13.38
Load factor-scheduled services 77.18% 78.11% 78.62% 78.96%
Yield (EUR cents)
9.51 8.74 8.11 7.86
RASK (Revenue/ASK)
7.48 6.71 6.39 6.33
CASK (Cost/ASK)
5.84 5.31 4.97 4.80
*assuming capitalized leasing
George Doukas
Tel: +30 2103354093

21
Aegean Airlines (AGNr.AT) | Income statement
Aegean Airlines - Profit & Loss Statement
EUR mn FY 14 FY 15f FY 16f FY 17f
Sales 911.8 977.9 1,040.3 1,099.7
EBITDAR 209.5 221.5 242.4 274.9
EBITDAR margin 23.0% 22.7% 23.3% 25.0%
EBITDA 118.8 112.8 125.5 153.0
EBITDA margin 13.0% 11.5% 12.1% 13.9%
Depreciation 12.8 14.3 14.1 12.9
EBIT 106.0 98.5 111.5 140.1
EBIT margin 11.6% 10.1% 10.7% 12.7%
Total Financial expenses (11.3) 6.1 5.6 5.4
EBT 94.6 104.6 117.0 145.5
EBT margin 10.4% 10.7% 11.3% 13.2%
Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax 14.4 29.3 33.9 42.2
Net profit 80.2 75.2 83.1 103.3
Net profit margin 8.8% 7.7% 8.0% 9.4%
Dividend 49.8 42.9 47.4 58.9
Retained earnings 30.5 32.4 35.7 44.4
EPS reported 1.12 1.05 1.16 1.45
DPS 0.70 0.60 0.66 0.82
Source: Aegean Airlines, Piraeus Securities Greek Equity Research

22
Aegean Airlines (AGNr.AT) | Balance sheet and cash flow
Aegean Airlines - Summary Balance Sheet
EUR mn FY 14 FY 15e FY 16f FY 17f
Tangible assets, net 193.8 162.1 128.0 117.1
Total non current assets 273.4 214.9 209.8 240.0
Inventory 13.2 7.2 7.6 7.8
Trade debtors 54.0 69.7 77.0 84.4
Cash & cash equivalents 207.5 221.3 258.2 280.5
Total current assets 354.0 339.1 386.3 418.7
Total assets 627.4 553.9 596.0 658.7
Total equity 216.5 175.4 211.2 255.6
Total long term liabilities 125.2 127.0 116.2 116.2
Provisions 3.2 6.5 6.9 7.3
Trade creditors 56.8 84.7 89.0 91.9
Tax payable 15.4 23.5 27.2 33.8
Total short term liabilities 285.8 251.5 268.7 286.9
Total liabilities 411.0 378.5 384.9 403.1
Total liabilities & equity 627.4 553.9 596.0 658.7
Source: Aegean Airlines, Piraeus Securities Greek Equity
Research
Aegean Airlines - Cash Flow Statement
Cash flow from operations 104.00 71.46 67.34 81.01
Change in Working Capital 9.79 (7.99) 2.85 1.07
Operating cash flow 113.79 63.47 70.19 82.08
Capex 42.92 (17.50) (20.00) 2.00
Free Cash Flow to Equity 60.47 70.57 79.79 69.68
Change in capital (72.02) - - -
Change in debt (7.85) (6.99) - -
Non operating cash flows - - - -
Dividend paid - (49.75) (42.89) (47.37)
Change in cash (19.40) 13.83 36.90 22.31
Cash, beginning 226.88 207.48 221.31 258.21
FX impact - - - -
Cash, end 207.48 221.31 258.21 280.52
Source: Aegean Airlines, Piraeus Securities Greek Equity Research

23
Heading for a new start after the completion of Banks’ recap
Q3 ‘15 results Athens Exchange Group announced a rather weak set of 3Q15 results that stood below our
estimates. Results were negatively affected by the capital controls that led to the loss of 23 trading days
during 3Q15 and continuous restrictions in the trading activity of the Greek private investors. 3Q15
revenues came in at EUR 4.55mn, decreased by 52% y-o-y, missing our estimate by c. 10%. The miss to our
estimate is attributed to lower revenues from trading, clearing and depository services, partly offset by
higher than expected revenues from Other Services. EBITDA stood at EUR 0.06mn, vs. our estimate for EUR
0.64mn. The miss to our estimate is attributed to lower than expected top line and slightly higher costs.
Finally, Net Profit reached EUR 0.12mn missing our estimate by 69%, mainly due to lower than expected
Operating Profitability.
Valuation Athens Exchange Group entered a new era after the completion of Banks’ recap, which added c.
EUR 9bn on market’s capitalization. The stock could see higher levels upon the successful completion of
reforms, the existence of a stable political environment and the entrance of the Greek economy on a
recovery path. At the moment taking into account the pending pension reform, we prefer to take a more
conservative stance and as a result we reduce our 2016 estimates on average trading volumes from EUR
119.2mn to EUR 110mn. However, the negative impact from the reduced estimates going forward is not
fully reflected in our target price that is benefited from the fact that we roll over our model forward to
include FY 2018 in our explicit estimates. Our DCF model generates a target price of EUR 5.4/share vs. EUR
5.7 before, with the implied upside potential at 24.4% from current levels. As a result we reiterate an
Outperform rating on the stock. At current levels EXAE trades at 2017E P/E (excl. cash) of 10.3x or at 20.2%
discount vs. Group’s 10-year historical average of 12.8x. The recent announcement for the privatization of
Piraeus Port (67% stake acquired Cosco) provides an additional valuation trigger and could lead to increased
volumes during 2016. We also point Group’s rich Net Cash position that at the end of the 9M period
amounted to EUR 132.5mn (EUR 2.03/share), accounting for c. 44.1% of Group’s market cap.
Valuation triggers Primary trigger includes a pick-up in trading volumes as the sovereign risk resides and
velocity converges to European standards. Volumes above our expectations would also trigger valuation
upgrades. Moreover, the increase of the market capitalization of the Greek market due to improved
sentiment but also due to the recapitalized banking sector should also enhance revenue streams.
Downside risks Trading volumes below our estimates in the next few years is the main downside risk. A
possible re-escalation of the Greek sovereign risk and a risk off approach towards Greek assets would be the
most likely candidates behind lower volumes going forward.
Company description Athens Exchange Group is the parent company of the Group of companies that
support the operation of the Greek capital market. The parent company and its 100% subsidiaries ATHEX
Clear and ATHEX CSD operate the organized cash and derivatives markets, carry out trade clearing,
settlement and registration of securities, provide comprehensive IT solutions to the Greek capital market,
and promote the development of capital markets culture in Greece. The Company was founded on 29-Mar-
2000 and it is headquartered in Athens, Greece.
Athens Exchange Group (EXCr.AT) | Heading for a new start
Iakovos Kourtesis
Tel: +30 2103354083
Fundamentals(EUR mn) 2014 2015f 2016e 2017e 2018e
Revenues 47.3 34.0 40.2 45.7 52.6
EBITDA 25.8 13.3 18.8 23.3 27.2
Net profit (adj.) 18.4 8.1 11.9 15.1 16.8
EPS underlying. (EUR) 0.28 0.12 0.18 0.23 0.26
DPS (EUR) 0.32 0.25 0.36 0.42 0.45
Valuation ratios 2014 2015f 2016e 2017e 2018e
P/E(x)adj.for cash (underlying) 7.4 24.2 12.5 10.3 9.7
P/E(x) 14.5 37.0 22.7 18.4 16.6
Dividend Yield 6.9% 4.6% 7.8% 9.0% 9.7%
ROE 11.4% 4.9% 7.0% 9.2% 10.7%
Company data
Closing price - Jan. 22 (EUR ) 4.54
Free float (%) 95%
Rating Outperform

24
Athens Exchange Group (EXCr.AT) | Income Statement
AthensExchange Group
P&L (in Euro m)Revenues 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
Average Daily Value 51.9 86.6 127.1 85.7 110.1 128.1 153.8
Average no ofcontracts 64,356 41,567 48,681 68,493 58,219 64,041 67,243
Average Market Cap 27,474 51,907 69,364 43,769 52,071 61,932 72,909
Turnover velocity (avg market cap) 47.0% 41.1% 45.4% 43.7% 52.8% 51.7% 52.7%
Avg Cap/GDP 14.2% 28.5% 39.1% 24.9% 29.9% 34.6% 39.4%
Trading 5.0 6.7 9.3 5.6 8.3 9.7 11.7
Clearing & Settl. 10.8 27.7 19.5 11.9 17.2 20.2 24.1
Exchange Serv. 4.8 34.7 6.9 6.7 4.2 4.7 5.3
Depository & Clearinghouse 3.2 5.0 4.1 2.8 3.2 3.7 4.3
DataFeed 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.8
Other 5.3 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
Turnover 33.0 81.5 47.3 34.0 40.2 45.7 52.6
% chng -22.8% 146.6% -42.0% -28.0% 18.1% 13.7% 14.9%
Source: The Company, PiraeusSecurities
PROFIT & LOSS (P&L) ITEMS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
Sales 47.9 33.5 81.5 47.3 34.0 40.2 45.7 52.6
% chng -30.6% -22.8% 146.6% -42.0% -28.0% 18.1% 13.7% 14.9%
Capital Markets' Commission 1.64 1.08 1.58 2.16 1.23 1.80 2.10 2.52
% chng -39.1% -34.3% 46.5% 36.7% -43.0% 46.2% 17.2% 20.0%
Cost of sales 22.4 20.7 19.4 19.4 19.5 19.6 20.3 22.8
% chng 0.4% -7.5% -6.3% -0.1% 0.6% 0.5% 3.7% 12.5%
% turnover 52% 63% 24% 41% 57% 49% 44% 43%
EBITDA 23.9 11.7 60.5 25.8 13.3 18.8 23.3 27.2
% chng -35.5% -51.0% 416.4% -57.4% -48.3% 41.3% 23.8% 16.6%
EBITDA margin 55.8% 35.5% 74.3% 54.5% 39.1% 46.8% 51.0% 51.8%
Depreciation & amortization 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
% of fixed assets 6.8% 7.0% 5.5% 6.7% 6.6% 6.3% 5.9% 5.8%
x capex/depreciation 0.37 0.34 0.34 1.22 1.38 1.94 1.94 0.83
Operating profit (EBIT) 22.1 9.9 59.1 24.0 11.5 17.0 21.5 25.4
% chng -36.2% -55.1% 495.9% -59.4% -51.9% 47.8% 26.4% 18.0%
Operating profit margin 51.6% 30.0% 72.5% 50.7% 33.9% 42.4% 47.1% 48.3%
Interest income 5.9 5.6 4.5 3.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Gains(losses) from revaluation of participations/securities-2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dividend income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Gains (losses) from securities 0.0 -0.8 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pre-tax profit 26.0 15.1 63.1 27.7 13.4 18.9 23.4 27.3
% chng -33.5% -41.7% 316.7% -56.2% -51.6% 41.2% 23.8% 16.6%
Pre-tax profit margin 60.6% 45.8% 77.5% 58.5% 39.3% 47.0% 51.1% 51.8%
Income tax 4.3 3.2 16.9 7.9 4.0 5.7 7.0 8.2
% effective tax rate 16.6% 21.3% 26.8% 28.5% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Profit after tax 21.5 11.9 32.3 21.0 9.4 13.2 16.4 18.1
% chng 1.4% -44.6% 170.9% -34.9% -55.4% 41.2% 23.8% 10.5%
Net profit margin 50.2% 36.1% 39.6% 44.4% 27.5% 32.9% 35.8% 34.4%
EPS after tax (in €) 0.33 0.18 0.49 0.32 0.14 0.20 0.25 0.28
EPS chng 1.4% -44.6% 170.9% -34.9% -55.4% 41.2% 23.8% 10.5%
Profit after tax excluding capital return 16.6 7.5 29.0 18.4 8.1 11.9 15.1 16.8
EPS after tax (in €) 0.25 0.12 0.44 0.28 0.12 0.18 0.23 0.26
Dividends 7.2 5.9 0.0 13.7 6.1 8.6 10.6 11.8
Dividend policy: Payout Ratio 33.4% 49.4% 0.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0% 65.0%
DPS (in €) 0.11 0.09 0.00 0.21 0.09 0.13 0.16 0.18
% chng -26.7% -18.2% -100.0% na -55.4% 41.2% 23.8% 10.5%
Capital return 5.2 2.0 13.1 7.2 10.0 15.0 16.5 17.5
Per share 0.08 0.03 0.20 0.11 0.15 0.23 0.25 0.27
Retained profit and reserves 6.5 2.8 13.3 13.8 -14.3 -7.9 -8.7 -10.1
BVPS (in €) 2.34 2.33 2.77 2.89 3.00 2.78 2.66 2.52
% chng 2.7% -0.1% 18.5% 4.7% 3.5% -7.3% -4.3% -5.0%
Market cap 188.9 284.4 522.9 304.0 346.5 296.8 296.8 296.8
End-year number of common shares 65,368,563 65,368,563 65,368,563 65,368,563 65,368,563 65,368,563 65,368,563 65,368,563
End-year/current stock price of common2.89 4.35 8.00 4.65 5.30 4.54 4.54 4.54
% chng of stock price (common) -41.0% 50.5% 83.9% -41.9% 14.0% -14.3% 0.0% 0.0%
EV 68.8 167.5 357.5 149.0 202.4 155.4 166.2 176.2
General index 680 908 1,163 826 631 534 534 534
GI Performance -51.9% 33.4% 28.1% -28.9% -23.6% -15.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Out/under performance 22.6% 12.8% 43.6% -18.2% 49.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%

25
Athens Exchange Group (EXCr.AT) | B/S & Cash Flow Statement
BALANCE SHEET (BS) ITEMS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
Net fixed assets 26.1 25.2 26.5 27.1 27.8 29.5 31.1 30.8
Investments 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Deferred taxation 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.9 12.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
Current Assets 130.7 131.5 184.7 275.9 360.0 355.0 367.4 380.5
TOTAL ASSETS 165.7 164.2 217.7 310.4 405.2 394.8 409.0 421.7
Net debt position -118.6 -116.2 -165.4 -154.9 -143.9 -141.3 -130.5 -121.5
Shareholders' equity 152.7 152.5 180.8 189.2 195.8 181.5 173.6 164.9
Minority interest on share capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Long-term liabilities 2.8 2.4 2.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1
Short-term liabilities 10.3 9.3 34.6 118.1 206.3 210.2 232.2 252.6
TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES 165.7 164.2 217.7 310.4 405.2 394.8 409.0 421.7
RATIO ANALYSIS ON BS ITEMS
Profitability: return on total assets 12.8% 7.2% 16.9% 8.0% 2.6% 3.3% 4.1% 4.4%
return on equity 14.3% 7.8% 19.4% 11.4% 4.9% 7.0% 9.2% 10.7%
return on invested capital 11.9% 5.0% 23.6% 8.9% 4.0% 6.3% 7.5% 8.4%
Free Cash Flow yield 4.9% 1.6% 12.4% -0.8% 0.0% 5.3% 3.8% 5.3%
CASH FLOW (CF) STATEMENT 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e
EBIT 22.1 9.9 59.1 24.0 11.5 17.0 21.5 25.4
Less: Tax paid 12.5 3.2 -3.6 25.5 4.0 5.7 7.0 8.2
Plus: Depreciation & amortization 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
Gross cash flow 11.4 8.6 64.1 0.2 9.3 13.2 16.3 19.0
Plus: Chng in accounts payable -1.1 -1.0 4.6 -1.0 -2.6 1.2 1.1 1.3
Plus: Chng in othercurrent liabilities 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1
Less: Chng in accounts receivable 0.4 3.2 4.0 -0.4 4.1 -5.0 2.5 3.1
Working capital chng 1.5 4.3 -0.8 0.5 6.9 -6.3 1.3 1.6
Operating Cash Flow 9.8 4.3 64.9 -0.2 2.4 19.5 15.0 17.4
Less: Purchases of fixed assets 0.7 0.6 0.5 2.2 2.5 3.5 3.5 1.5
% of sales (cap ex only) 1.5% 1.9% 0.6% 4.6% 7.3% 8.7% 7.6% 2.8%
Free Cash Flow 9.2 4.5 65.0 -2.4 -0.1 16.0 11.5 15.9
Less: Dividends paid 16.3 12.4 7.8 13.1 20.9 16.1 23.6 27.1
Plus: Interest income 5.9 5.6 4.5 3.7 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9
Plus: disposal of assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Chng in Cash Position -5.7 -2.4 49.1 -10.5 -10.0 0.0 10.0 10.0
Cash Position 118.6 116.2 165.4 154.9 144.9 144.9 154.9 164.9

26
3Q 2015 results: Autohellas reported a good set of results with Q2 revenues of EUR 44.74mn
(+14.8%), EBITDA of EUR 21.7mn (+12.5%) and adjusted net profit of EUR 4.5mn vs EUR
3.4mn last year. Including the dividend from Aegean, the Q2 net stood at EUR 8.8mn (+1.6x).
The EBITDA margin retreated by 1pp to 48.5% due to down trading in both leasing and RaC
and lower margin in used car sales. RaC revenues grew 12.3% at EUR 19.2mn, leasing was
also up by 4.2% at EUR 38.4mn, while sales of used cars stood at EUR 16.2mn (+31.7%). The
group continued to expand abroad, by assuming the Hertz franchise in Ukraine. The revenues
from non-Greek territories grew 14.5% in 1H at EUR 17.4mn and now represents 22.8% of
total revenues.
Outlook: 2015 shapes to be a good year with good sales from both RaC and leasing. In Q4,
we expect a relatively weak Q4, on the back of the impact of the capital controls and some
deterioration in the mix of the inbound traffic, along with a change policy by Ryanair, which
hurt RaC sales. Going forward, we assume a moderate growth in sales and EBITDA given the
high base in the RaC. Leasing growth may have been tampered by the capital controls and
the further tightening of the fiscal policy, which could have a negative spill over in corporate
investment. We believe that the management will opt for a more conservative approach in
2016 to account for the increased political uncertainty and a possible negative impact from
the migrant crisis.
Valuation/estimates: We assume a loss making Q4, bringing the total net profit at cEUR
21mn, a strong print anyway. Our target price stands at EUR 10.0/share, which implies a fwd
P/E of 7.2x, broadly in line with long term multiple. Given the negative upside we retain our
Neutral rating on the stock.
Valuation triggers: Increased penetration in the foreign markets, which will lead to lower
dependence on the Greek market, recovery of the used car market, macro improvement in
Greece.
Downside risks: weak tourism in 2016, leasing and used car market remains in doldrums,
pricing erosion.
Company description: Autohellas is one of the largest Hertz franchisees in the world. It
currently represents Hertz in the markets of Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia,
Montenegro, Ukraine and recently Croatia.
Autohellas (AUTr.AT) | Good tourism flow the main driver
Company data
Free float (%) 26.16%
Total Return (%) -3.08%
Rating Neutral
Ratio analysis 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
P/E (x) adj. 8.2 8.9 7.9 7.5
P/E on Target Price (x) 7.5 8.1 7.2 6.9
PEG (x) -1.2 0.5 1.7 1.3
P/CE (x) 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.7
P/BV (x) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6
P/FCFE (x) -8.3 34.2 8.4 4.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9
EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.4
Earnings yield 12.1% 15.6% 12.7% 13.3%
Net debt/EBITDA 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.3
ROA 4.0% 4.9% 3.9% 4.0%
RoE 9.0% 10.8% 8.4% 8.4%
Source: Piraeus Securities, Greek Equity
Research
George Doukas
Tel: +30 2103354093

27
Autohellas (AUTr.AT) | Income Statement
Autohellas - Profit & Loss estimates
Sales 161.1 174.9 177.6 175.5
Services 132.1 147.7 147.4 146.9
Used cars 29.1 27.3 30.3 28.7
EBITDA 81.1 89.6 90.6 87.5
Depreciation 51.1 55.9 60.6 59.1
EBIT 29.9 33.7 30.0 28.4
EBT 20.8 29.3 23.8 23.5
EBTAM
Tax 4.7 8.5 6.9 6.8
Net profit 16.1 20.8 16.9 17.7
Net profit (clean) 16.1 15.0 16.9 17.7
EPS 1.33 1.71 1.39 1.45
EPS (clean) 1.33 1.23 1.39 1.45
DPS 0.81 0.62 0.69 0.73

28
Autohellas (AUTr.AT) | Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Autohellas - Consolidated Balance Sheet
Net fixed assets 263.1 280.1 280.1 265.6
Inventory 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3
Other current assets 33.8 39.0 39.5 39.1
Assets available for sale 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total assets 404.0 420.8 430.1 438.6
Total equity 178.8 192.1 200.5 209.3
Total short term debt 24.7 26.2 26.6 26.3
Trade & other creditors 19.9 21.4 21.5 21.8
Source: Autohellas, Piraeus Securities Greek Equity
Research
Autohellas Hertz - Cash Flow Statements
Cash earnings 49.18 77.74 77.53 76.35
Change in inventories 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0
Change in trade debtors -2.6 -1.8 -0.3 0.2
Change in other long term assets 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in other current assets 0.0 -1.3 -0.3 0.2
Change in trade creditors 11.8 1.6 0.1 0.3
Change in other current liabilities 0.0 1.7 0.3 -0.3
Purchases of vehicles -107.5 -103.2 -92.8 -74.3
Proceeds from the sale of vehicles 29.3 27.3 30.3 28.7
change in WC (ex-fleet) 9.5 0.0 -0.1 0.4
Change in Working Capital -68.7 -75.9 -62.7 -45.2
OpCF before investments -19.48 1.89 14.81 31.19
CAPEX (net) 3.4 2.0 1.0 1.0
Free Cash Flow to Equity -16.1 3.9 15.8 32.2
Change in capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in debt -33.1 1.5 0.4 -0.3
Dividend paid 0.0 -9.8 -7.5 -8.4
Change in cash -49.2 -4.4 8.7 23.4
Cash beginning 64.4 15.2 10.7 19.5
Cash from discontinued operations 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash, end of year 15.1 10.7 19.5 42.9
Source: Autohellas, Piraeus Securities Greek Equity
Research

29
3Q 2015 trading update: Coca Cola HBC reported Q3 volumes in the tune of 577.28mn u.c.
(+5.4%); easy comps (cycling a 4.7% volume decline), along with good weather across
markets and strong growth in the water category helped volume growth, particularly in the
established (+7.4%) and the developing segment (+10.4%). On the other hand the emerging
segment was off by c10mn cases due to deteriorating Russian market. Pricing was down by
3.5% and 3% in the established and developing segments respectively on the back of
deflationary environment prohibiting pricing initiatives and an adverse sales mix due to
increased water volumes. In all revenues declined by 2.7% at EUR 1,768.83mn.
Outlook: The management reiterated its guidance of volume growth in 2015 with operating
margin expansion. FX impact is now seen EUR 10mn higher than previously anticipated due
to RUB weakness in Q3; the total impact is now seen at EUR 165mn. However costs savings in
other areas and especially in resin should balance the impact. For 2016 they expect slightly
higher input costs and mild inflation in Europe, which will allow some pricing realization. Q4
is expected to be weak given the 4 less trading days, which will balance the 4 extra days of
1Q 2015. Going forward we expect an improved performance in 2016 although Q1 could be
hit by higher than expected FX losses due to the significant pressure on certain EM currencies
and mainly the RUB.
Valuation/estimates: We have a target price of EUR 17.0/share and an Underperform rating
on the stock. CCHBC currently trades at a c6% premium over peers on a P/E 16e basis. In
2016, we expect the group to continue growing its volumes in the low single digits, while
pricing could be positive after three years of negative pricing.
Valuation triggers: macro improvement in key markets like Russia and Italy, sustained low
levels of input costs, demand recovers faster than expected, higher than expected pricing, FX
improvement (mainly RUB), capex lower than anticipated.
Downside risks: spikes in commodity prices, further slowdown in key markets, further
weakening of key currencies.
Company description: CCHBC is an anchor bottler of the Coke system, operating in 28
countries, selling 2bn cases annually through 136 brands and employing 36,362 employees.
The company has its primary listing in LSE (FTSE100 constituent) and a second listing in the
ATHEX.
Coca Cola HBC (EEEr.AT) | Challenges in various markets subside
Company data
Market cap. (EUR mn) 6,702.01
Closing price –Jan.22 (EUR ) 18.22
Free float (%) 54%
Total Return (%) -4.40%
Rating Neutral
P/E (x) 24.19 21.34 20.66 18.82
P/E on Target Price (x) 22.54 19.88 19.25 17.53
PEG (x) 1.70 7.32 2.11 -2.14
P/EBITDA (x) 9.04 8.42 7.82 7.45
P/BV (x) 2.41 2.30 2.17 2.05
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.02 10.11 9.23 8.62
EV/EBIT (x) 22.65 18.86 16.38 14.90
Earnings yield 4.39% 4.18% 4.84% 5.31%
ROE 10.58% 9.62% 10.52% 10.87%
ROIC 6.94% 7.49% 8.43% 9.04%
Interest coverage (x) 4.95 6.43 7.50 8.69
Net debt/EBITDA 1.98 1.69 1.41 1.17
Net debt/Equity
Source: Piraeus Securities, Greek Equity
Research
0.53 0.46 0.39 0.32
George Doukas
Tel: +30 2103354093

30
Coca Cola HBC (EEEr.AT/CCH.L) | Income Statement
CCH - Profit & Loss estimates
Volumes 2,002.9 2,037.6 2,078.1 2,136.6
Established Markets 615.2 609.2 620.1 637.2
Developing Markets 358.3 369.8 380.6 389.9
Emerging Markets 1,029.4 1,058.7 1,077.3 1,109.5
Sales 6,510.2 6,401.0 6,475.6 6,654.9
Established Markets 2,448.9 2,449.2 2,520.6 2,587.7
Developing Markets 1,054.1 1,082.4 1,108.5 1,135.7
Emerging Markets 3,007.2 2,869.4 2,846.6 2,931.5
EBITDA 742.1 797.4 859.0 901.4
EBITDA margin 11.4% 12.5% 13.3% 13.5%
EBITDA (clean) 784.7 842.4 859.0 901.4
EBITDA margin 12.1% 13.2% 13.3% 13.5%
EBIT 361.1 427.4 484.0 521.4
EBIT margin 5.5% 6.7% 7.5% 7.8%
EBIT (clean) 424.7 472.4 484.0 521.4
EBIT margin 6.5% 7.4% 7.5% 7.8%
EBT 352.0 368.9 427.5 469.4
EBT (clean) 402.0 413.9 427.5 469.4
Minorities (pre-tax)
EBTAM
Tax 57.8 88.5 102.6 112.7
tax rate 16.42% 24.00% 24.00% 24.00%
Net profit 294.8 280.4 324.9 356.7
Net profit (clean) 277.4 314.6 324.9 356.7
EPS 0.80 0.76 0.88 0.97
EPS (clean) 0.75 0.86 0.88 0.97
DPS 0.36 0.42 0.41 0.45

31
Coca Cola HBC (EEEr.AT/CCH.L) | Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
CCH - Consolidated Balance Sheet
Net fixed assets 4,508.9 4,479.4 4,478.9 4,492.1
Total non current assets 4,816.9 4,803.4 4,817.9 4,846.1
Inventory 414.2 399.7 403.0 425.4
Other current assets 1,011.6 1,012.3 1,041.0 1,067.8
Total current assets 2,062.1 1,862.4 1,911.4 2,118.7
Total assets 6,879.0 6,665.8 6,729.3 6,964.8
Total equity 2,791.1 2,917.2 3,092.6 3,285.3
Total long term liabilities 1,892.0 1,892.0 1,892.0 1,892.0
Total liabilities 4,087.9 3,748.6 3,636.7 3,679.6
Total liabilities & equity 6,879.0 6,665.8 6,729.3 6,964.8
Sources: Company, Piraeus Securities
CCH - Cash Flow Statements
EUR mn FY 13 FY 14 FY 15f FY 16f
Cash earnings 673.10 686.98 762.22 775.08
Change in Working Capital 13.2 -19.5 -26.9 -6.4
Cash flow before investments 686.30 667.52 735.29 768.69
Cash flow from investments -337.1 -340.5 -374.5 -393.2
Change in capital 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in debt -209.3 -306.0 -117.0 0.0
Dividend paid -129.4 -132.4 -154.3 -149.4
Other -101.3 -74.5 -72.5 -68.0
Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exchange difference -10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in cash -101.2 -185.8 17.0 158.0
Cash beginning 737.5 636.3 450.5 467.4
Cash, end of year 636.3 450.5 467.4 625.4
Sources: Company, Piraeus Securities

32
Buy on weakness
Q3 15 results review Folli Follie Group announced a rather mixed set of 3Q15 results that stood above our
estimates in terms of top line and below in terms of EBITDA & bottom line. Sales came in at EUR 281.2mn
increased by 14.8%, beating our estimate by 1.5%. For the 9M15 period sales stood at EUR 875.5mn up by 20.9%.
EBITDA stood at EUR 47mn increased by 4.6%, missing our estimate by 8%. The miss to our estimate is attributed
to a significant erosion of the EBITDA margin in the JWA division that came in at 20.4% vs. our estimate of 23.7%
due to the payment of rents amounting to c. EUR 5mn as guarantee for large POS that opened their gates at Japan
and Hong Kong. Net Profit for the period stood at EUR 31mn missing our estimate by 1.7%, due to lower operating
profitability and a higher than expected effective tax rate that came in at 29.8%; this was partly offset by positive
financials. The Group recorded a Net Debt position of EUR 123mn vs. EUR 54mn at the end of 2014 and EUR 32mn
in 3Q14 mainly due to increased Capex needs that stood at EUR 29.77mn vs. EUR 13.46mn the year ago period.
Management guided for increased Capex that will stand at EUR 60mn for the FY period that in our view will take a
toll on Group’s weak FCF generation and EUR 50-55mn going onwards that will be invested on the new concepts
of Folli & Links, as well as on infrastructure, IT systems, R&D etc. On the FCF front the Group recorded OFCF of -
EUR 3.4mn vs. cash flow of EUR 20.5mn the year ago period since increased W/C requirement were offset by the
positive effect of FX differences amounting to EUR 70mn. Management guided for a double digit growth in the top
& bottom line, while no guidance was provided in terms of operating profitability and FCF generation.
Valuation Following the announcement of a mixed set of 3Q15 results and the elevated concerns on China’s GDP
growth rate over the coming years, we reduce our EBITDA estimates going forward by c. 8.5% on average due to
the increased participation of the wholesale channel in Chinese sales. As a result, we reduce our target price from
EUR 28.7 to EUR 22.4/share. The recent stock weakness leaves a significant upside potential from our TP, currently
standing at 73.5%, thus creating a buying opportunity. Outperform rating maintained. At current levels the shares
change hands at a 2017E P/E of 4.9x and an EV/EBITDA multiple of 3.8x, with an implied discount of 51.2% over
Group’s 10-year historical average of 7.7x.
Valuation triggers Gaining significant market share through increased Folli Follie and Links of London brands
awareness in Asia; Further consolidation of the Greek market in favour of department stores and malls; Expansion
of operations in new regions- US penetration with Folli Follie and Links brands; Opportunities within the Dufry
network; Distribution agreements with more brands in Greece and SEE; Expansion of the Collective retail concept
in Greece, Bulgaria and Romania.
Downside risks Weak FCF generation and high WC needs; Dependency on consumer spending levels; Deceleration
of growth in Chinese economy could seriously affect the growth prospects of the Group; Potential delays in the
new POS/ Department stores rollout; Margin pressure from the increasing wholesale contribution
Company description Folli Follie is a diversified retail Group that operates in four different segments; Jewellery,
Watches & Accessories (70.6% of total sales in 2014), Department Stores (15.4% of total sales in 2014) and
Retail/Wholesale (14% of total sales in 2014). At the end of 9M15, it operated 999 POS in 28 countries with a focus
on Greater China. Other important markets for the Group are the United Kingdom, North America, Japan, Greece,
Bulgaria and Romania. At the end of 3Q15, Folli Follie Group operated in total 686 POS of FF brand and 124 POS
for Links of London.
Folli Follie Group (HDFr.AT)|Buy on weakness
Iakovos Kourtesis
Tel: +30 2103354083
Company data
Closing price – Jan. 22 (EUR ) 12.95
Free float (%) 50%
Rating Outperform
KeyfinancialsFF Group 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Turnover (€ m) 1,021.4 1,110.0 934.2 998.1 1,186.3 1,265.5 1,334.7 1,406.8
EBITDA (€ m) 198.7 212.8 194.7 223.0 242.2 255.6 271.6 287.9
Net profit (€m) 89.5 93.6 344.6 141.2 147.6 161.8 175.1 187.8
Reported EPS(€) 1.34 1.40 5.15 2.11 2.20 2.42 2.62 2.81
Adj. EPS 1.36 1.42 5.15 2.11 2.20 2.42 2.62 2.81
Rep. P/E(x) 5.8 9.2 4.5 12.5 7.8 5.4 5.0 4.6
Adj. P/E(x) 5.7 9.1 4.5 12.5 7.8 5.4 5.0 4.6
DPS/Capital Return 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.75 0.33 0.07 0.12 0.13
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.7 4.3 8.0 8.3 5.5 4.1 3.8 3.5
FCF yield (%) -7.5% -1.0% 18.8% 0.3% -7.5% 3.0% 6.1% 7.1%
Net Debt/EBITDA 3.0 2.9 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3

33
Folli Follie Group (HDFr.AT) | Income Statement
PROFIT & LOSS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 e 2016 e 2017 e 2018 e
Turnover 1,021 1,110 934 998 1,186 1,266 1,335 1,407
% chng 3.2% 8.7% -15.8% 6.8% 18.9% 6.7% 5.5% 5.4%
COGS & SG&A 874 957 774 807 982 1,048 1,103 1,159
EBITDA 199 213 195 223 242 256 272 288
% chng 2.8% 7.1% -8.5% 14.5% 8.6% 5.5% 6.2% 6.0%
EBITDA margin 19.5% 19.2% 20.8% 22.3% 20.4% 20.2% 20.3% 20.5%
Net depreciation 25 27 21 21 27 28 28 29
EBIT 174 186 173 202 215 228 243 259
% chng 1.3% 6.8% -6.7% 16.7% 6.2% 6.0% 6.7% 6.4%
Net interest expenses 52 55 -224 9 -16 -10 -8 -7
Pre-tax profit 122 131 398 193 199 217 235 251
% chng -2.2% 7.3% 203.8% -51.5% 3.0% 9.5% 8.0% 7.1%
Minority stake in profits 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4
Income tax 31 35 50 47 47 51 55 59
% effective tax rate 25.1% 26.9% 12.6% 24.6% 23.6% 23.6% 23.6% 23.6%
Profit after tax 90 94 345 141 147.6 161.8 175.1 187.8
% chng 7.5% 4.6% 268.1% -59.0% 4.5% 9.7% 8.2% 7.3%
EPS after tax (in Euro) / Reported 1.34 1.40 5.15 2.11 2.20 2.42 2.62 2.81
EPS chng -2.7% 4.6% 268.1% -59.0% 4.5% 9.7% 8.2% 7.3%
Dividends 0 0 0 0 5 8 9 9
DPS (in Euro) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.12 0.13 0.14
Market cap 517 865 1,567 1,767 1,158 867 867 867
Shares Outstanding 66,948,210 66,948,210 66,948,210 66,948,210 66,948,210 66,948,210 66,948,210 66,948,210
End-year/current stock price 7.72 12.92 23.40 26.40 17.30 12.95 12.95 12.95
% chng of common stock price -29.6% 67.4% 81.1% 12.8% -34.5% -25.1% 0.0% 0.0%
EV 1,132 1,500 1,561 1,848 1,340 1,051 1,030 1,002
EV/Turnover 1.11 1.35 1.67 1.85 1.13 0.83 0.77 0.71
General index 680.42 907.90 1,162.68 826.18 631.35 534.34 534.34 534.34
GI Performance -51.9% 33.4% 28.1% -28.9% -23.6% -15.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Out/under performance 46.3% 25.4% 41.4% 58.8% -14.2% -11.6% 0.0% 0.0%

34
Folli Follie Group (HDFr.AT) | B/S & Cash Flow Statement
BALANCE SHEET 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 e 2016 e 2017 e 2018 e
Net fixed assets 691 697 390 399 432 459 481 503
Current Assets 1,010 1,096 1,025 1,364 1,560 1,664 1,757 1,853
Accounts receivable 536 592 518 700 833 890 939 990
Inventories 339 378 255 367 479 536 590 645
Cash 136 126 252 297 247 237 227 217
TOTAL ASSETS 1,724 1,816 1,572 1,970 2,178 2,309 2,424 2,542
Net debt position 596 615 -29 54 151 148 123 92
Shareholders' equity 721 805 1,160 1,334 1,454 1,601 1,758 1,925
Minority interest on share capital 18 20 23 27 31 35 39 44
Long-term liabilities 396 506 64 348 345 345 345 345
Bank debt 315 429 36 304 304 304 304 304
Short-term liabilities 589 485 324 260 349 328 282 228
Accounts payable & other ST liabilities 154 152 120 182 220 213 202 191
Liabilities for taxes 17 20 17 32 35 35 34 33
Liabilities to banks 417 312 187 47 94 81 46 4
TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES 1,724 1,816 1,572 1,970 2,178 2,309 2,424 2,542
RATIO ANALYSIS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 e 2016 e 2017 e 2018 e
Liquidity: Current ratio 1.7 2.3 3.2 5.2 4.5 5.1 6.2 8.1
Acid Test 1.1 1.5 2.4 3.8 3.1 3.4 4.1 5.3
Activity: Avg receivables to turnover days 194.4 202.7 185.0 264.4 278.4 265.1 263.7 263.6
Avg trade creditors to purchases days 118.4 110.5 90.7 144.6 149.5 125.6 112.6 101.3
Financial Structure: Liabilities to equity 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
Bank debt to equity 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Profitability: Return on equity 14.3% 12.3% 35.1% 11.3% 10.6% 10.6% 10.4% 10.2%
Return on invested capital 9.0% 8.8% 11.0% 9.1% 8.9% 8.8% 8.8% 8.8%
CASH FLOW 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 e 2016 e 2017 e 2018 e
Profit after tax before minorities 88 37 366 145 152 166 179 192
Plus: Depreciation & amortization 25 21 20 21 27 28 28 29
Plus: Chng in provisions / Other Non-Cash -8 9 27 43 0 0 0 0
Plus: Net Interest Expenses 2 2 -1 2 1 6 5 4
Gross cash flow 118 75 -55 200 180 200 213 225
Plus: Chng in accounts payable -28 77 -1 42 38 -7 -10 -11
Less: Chng in accounts
receivable+inventories 90 132 -68 186 246 114 103 106
Working capital chng 118 55 -67 144 207 119 110 113
Operating cash flow 0 24 6 56 -27 81 103 112
Less: Purchases of fixed assets 23 20 15 36 60 55 50 50
Less: Investments (net) 16 13 21 22 0 0 0 0
Free cash flow -39 -9 295 5 -87 26 53 62

35
Strong set of 3Q15 results on the back of market share gains and decreased marketing expenses for
IKEA
Q3 15 results Fourlis announced a strong set of results well-above our estimates due to the strong performance of IKEA during
3Q15. On a Group levels Fourlis reported sales of EUR 112.6mn, decreased by 3.5%, beating our estimate by 5.1%. EBITDA
came in at EUR 11.3mn, up 42.7%, well above our estimate of EUR 8mn, mainly due to strong performance of the flagship IKEA.
Net Profit for the period reached EUR 2.9mn, vs. our estimate for EUR 0.02mn. Flagship IKEA reported a strong 3Q15, with
sales shaping at EUR 76.6mn, flat y-o-y, beating our estimate by 5.4%; EBITDA stood at EUR 8.6mn, well above our estimate of
EUR 6.4mn; the beat to our estimate is attributed to better top line and significant savings on the distribution expenses that
accounted for 28% of sales vs. 31.3% the year ago period. These savings came from the freeze of marketing spending, while
savings of c. EUR 2mn were recorded from the reduction of the catalogues distributed by 50%, as well as from the distribution
of half sized catalogues. Management commented that it plans to return to its normal catalogue policy in 2016, thus leading to
tough comps for the current FY. Intersport reported sales of EUR 34.7mn, 3.7% above our estimate, while EBITDA for the
period came in at EUR 3mn vs. our estimate for EUR 2.5mn. The beat to our estimate is attributed to a better than expected
gross profit margin and a better top line. Net Debt for the period stood at EUR 141.6mn, vs. EUR 135mn at the end of 2014,
mainly due to Capex spending amounting to EUR 11.6mn
Valuation We proceed with small changes in our P&L estimates and we slightly raise our Capex estimates . We remind that c.
65% of Group’s sales is derived from Greece. We value Fourlis by employing a combination of a 10-year Discounting Cash Flow
model (50% weight) and a multiples based valuation on a targeted 2017 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x (50% weight), below
Group’s historical average during the crisis of 9.6x (since 2008). Our DCF model generates a target price of EUR 3.85/share,
while our multiples based method generates a target price of EUR 3.84/share. The average of the two methods target price
stands at EUR 3.85/share that implies an upside potential of 50.3% from current levels. We thus maintain our Outperform
rating.
Valuation triggers Signs of improved performance for IKEA (rising sales and improving margins), Intersport/Athete Foot, as
well as the introduction of new IKEA outlets (none included in our new set of forecasts) would justify earnings upgrades and
higher valuation for the group, in our view. New business ventures and/or licensing agreements could be a major catalyst for
the stock going forward.
Downside risks Increased competition in both IKEA’s and Intersport’s markets; a deterioration of same store IKEA sales due to
the austerity measures in Greece and recession; lower operating margins for IKEA; tax charges on previous fiscal years;
additional windfall taxes; additional VAT hikes; working capital overshooting; a prolonged (let alone harsher) recession in
Greece and/or Cyprus; additional austerity measures that put pressure on disposable income and spending
Company description Fourlis is a leading retailer in the home furniture sector through the IKEA brand name and is the
exclusive marketer of IKEA-branded products in Greece, Cyprus and Bulgaria through the current seven stores (five in Greece,
one in Cyprus and one in Bulgaria) and the six pick-up points. The Company also operates 107 outlets for athletic products
under the Intersport brand name in Greece, Cyprus, Romania Turkey and Bulgaria. In addition, the Group has recently acquired
franchise rights for the operation of Athlete’s Foot retail concept in Greece and Turkey with four (4) pilot openings during
2015.
Fourlis (FRL.AT) | Gaining market share in a shrinking market
Company data
Rating Outperform
Iakovos Kourtesis
Tel: +30 2103354083
Fundamentals(€ m) 2014 2015f 2016e 2017e 2018e
Sales 413.37 409.26 420.97 439.66 463.40
EBITDA 25.91 30.02 33.92 37.20 39.52
Net profit -11.48 0.53 5.55 9.13 11.57
EPS (€) -0.23 0.01 0.11 0.18 0.23
DPS (€) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net debt 135.04 127.45 125.42 120.04 113.14
Valuation ratios 2014 2015f 2016e 2017e 2017e
P/E(x) na na 23.50 14.30 11.29
P/BV (x) 0.80 0.85 1.00 1.00 1.00
EV/Sales (x) 0.68 0.64 0.57 0.53 0.49
EV/EBITDA(x) 10.89 8.77 7.04 6.27 5.73

36
Fourlis (FRLr.AT) | Income Statement
IKEA 2014e 2015 2016 2017 2018 3-YearCAGR
Sales 267.74 270.42 279.89 289.68 301.27 3.7%
%chng 0.5% 1.0% 3.5% 3.5% 4.0%
EBITDA 19.67 20.59 22.00 23.78 23.87 5.0%
%chng -7.7% 4.7% 6.8% 8.1% 0.4%
margin 7.3% 7.6% 7.9% 8.2% 7.9%
EBIT 9.95 10.88 12.28 14.06 14.15 9.2%
%chng -14.7% 9.3% 12.9% 14.5% 0.6%
margin 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% 4.9% 4.7%
Source:Company,PiraeusSecurities
Intersport 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018e 3-YearCAGR
Sales 122.35 132.59 141.08 149.98 162.13 6.9%
%chng 10.2% 8.4% 6.4% 6.3% 8.1%
EBITDA 10.83 11.21 11.92 13.43 15.65 11.8%
%chng 43.2% 3.5% 6.4% 12.6% 16.6%
margin 8.9% 8.5% 8.5% 9.0% 9.7%
EBIT 7.23 7.43 8.08 9.46 11.50 15.7%
%chng 120.9% 2.7% 8.8% 17.1% 21.6%
margin 5.9% 5.6% 5.7% 6.3% 7.1%
Source:Company,PiraeusSecurities
PROFIT& LOSS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 e 2016 e 2017 e 2018 e
Turnover 438.2 420.3 403.3 413.4 409.3 421.0 439.7 463.4
% chng -31.3% -4.1% -4.0% 2.5% -1.0% 2.9% 4.4% 5.4%
COGS & SG&A 410.3 400.2 378.1 387.7 379.2 387.0 402.5 423.9
EBITDA 28.0 20.1 25.4 25.9 30.0 33.9 37.2 39.5
% chng -40.9% -28.2% 26.6% 1.9% 15.9% 13.0% 9.7% 6.2%
EBITDAmargin 6.4% 4.8% 6.3% 6.3% 7.3% 8.1% 8.5% 8.5%
Net depreciation 13.0 17.3 14.6 20.0 13.8 13.6 13.7 13.9
EBIT 15.0 2.8 10.6 5.7 16.2 20.4 23.5 25.7
% chng -58.5% -81.4% 279.8% -46.4% 185.6% 25.7% 15.5% 9.1%
Net interest expenses -10.6 -14.1 -15.6 -13.1 -12.1 -11.6 -10.9 -10.3
Pre-tax profit 4.1 -11.7 -5.8 -9.1 1.4 7.3 12.0 15.2
% chng -85.6% -387.1% -50.1% 56.4% -115.8% 405.8% 64.3% 26.7%
Minority stake in profits -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Income tax 2.4 -0.3 2.5 2.3 0.9 1.8 2.9 3.7
% effectivetax rate 57.9% 2.2% -42.0% -25.6% 63.6% 24.1% 24.1% 24.1%
Profit after tax 2.3 -11.3 -8.3 -11.5 0.5 5.6 9.1 11.6
% chng -84.8% -590.2% -26.3% 38.4% -104.6% 953.6% 64.3% 26.7%
Net profit margin 0.5% -2.7% -2.1% -2.8% 0.1% 1.3% 2.1% 2.5%
EPS after tax (in Euro) 0.05 -0.22 -0.16 -0.23 0.01 0.11 0.18 0.23
EPS chng -84.6% -590.2% -26.4% 37.5% -104.6% 953.6% 64.3% 26.7%
Adj EPS 0.14 0.13- 0.16- 0.23- 0.01 0.11 0.18 0.23
% chng -64% -191% 26% 38% -105% 954% 64% 27%
Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DPS (in Euro) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
% chng na na na na na na na na
Market cap 73 100 209 164 153 131 131 131
Adj number ofshares 50,625,233 50,625,233 50,672,902 50,992,322 50,992,322 50,992,322 50,992,322 50,992,322
Basic number ofshares 50,992,322 50,992,322 50,992,322 50,992,322 50,992,322 50,992,322 50,992,322 50,992,322
EV 207 231 330 282 263 239 233 227
End-year/current stock price common shares 1.43 1.97 4.09 3.22 3.00 2.56 2.56 2.56
% chng ofcommon stock price -74.5% 37.8% 107.6% -21.3% -6.8% -14.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Out/under performance -47.0% 3.2% 62.1% 10.8% 21.9% 0.8% n.a n.a

37
Fourlis (FRLr.AT) | B/S & Cash Flow Statement
BALANCE SHEET 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 e 2016 e 2017 e 2018 e
Net fixed assets 297 298 300 292 279 280 281 282
Current Assets 194 164 135 155 157 161 169 177
Inventories 89 77 75 86 87 90 95 101
Cash 56 42 28 35 35 35 35 35
TOTAL ASSETS 491 462 435 447 436 442 450 459
Net debt position 143 138 129 135 127 125 120 113
Shareholders' equity 188 177 169 158 159 165 174 185
Bank debt 89 124 111 105 105 105 105 105
Other 10 10 11 10 11 11 12 12
TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES 491 462 435 447 436 442 450 459
RATIO ANALYSIS 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 e 2016 e 2017 e 2018 e
Avg receivables to turnover days 67 34 31 27 29 29 29 30
Avg trade creditors to purchases days 152 138 147 160 171 166 162 158
Avg inventories to turnover days 74 67 68 76 77 78 79 80
Financial Structure: Bank debt to equity 1.06 1.02 0.93 1.07 1.02 0.97 0.89 0.80
Net Debt / EBITDA 5.13 6.87 5.07 5.21 4.25 3.70 3.23 2.86
Fixed to total assets 60.5% 64.6% 69.0% 65.3% 64.1% 63.4% 62.5% 61.4%
Profitability: Return on total assets 0.5% -2.4% -1.8% -2.6% 0.1% 1.3% 2.0% 2.5%
Return on equity 1.1% -6.2% -4.8% -7.0% 0.3% 3.4% 5.4% 6.4%
Return on capital employed 3.8% 1.0% 2.6% 1.1% 5.2% 6.2% 6.8% 7.1%
CASH FLOW 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 e 2016 e 2017 e 2018 e
Profit after tax before minorities 1.7 -11.4 -8.3 -11.5 0.5 5.6 9.1 11.6
Plus: Chng in provisions/other 14.0 -7.7 -16.9 -10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Plus: Changes in taxes payable -2.0 0.0 1.1 -0.5 -1.7 0.8 1.1 0.8
Gross cash flow 37.4 13.3 6.1 11.1 24.8 31.6 34.8 36.5
Plus: Chng in accounts payable -5.4 0.8 1.2 12.0 -3.2 0.9 2.5 3.6
Less: Chng in accounts receivable 12.7 5.6 -7.7 2.5 0.3 1.6 2.2 2.7
Less: Chng in inventories 3.2 -11.8 -1.5 10.7 0.9 3.4 4.9 6.1
Working capital chng 21.3 -7.0 -10.4 1.2 4.4 4.1 4.6 5.2
Operating cash flow 50.4 22.2 22.3 9.3 20.4 27.5 30.3 31.4
Less: Chng in investments 4.6 8.0 4.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Free cash flow -27.3 4.6 6.1 -5.8 6.4 15.5 18.3 19.4

38
3Q 2015 results: Frigoglass reported sales of EUR 66.1mn (+26.5%) with marginally positive
EBITDA at EUR 0.2mn vs losses of EUR 1.6mn in 3Q 2014. The net losses widened to EUR
16.6mn from EUR 10.9mn last year and worse than our EUR 6.9mn estimate, on the back of
(Russian Ruble and SA Rand) associated FX losses. The top line was much better than our
estimates, however margins were lower, while the cEUR 5.0 FX losses were also above our
estimates. Another highlight of the weak quarter was the increase in net debt to EUR 301mn
(+11.1%) and the negative equity (for the first time).
Outlook: The management guided for a deterioration in Q4’s market conditions in Russia,
which will more than offset the sales growth achieved in 9M. It seems that Russia will remain
in doldrums for the next few quarters and its weight is such that the whole Eastern European
segment will struggle. On the other hand we could see Western Europe performing better
although the growth should come from Asia and Africa, where margins are thinner. The
company has not concluded yet the sale of the glass business, which is now expected to be
sealed in 1Q 2016 (initial target the 4Q 2015), which is not supportive of sentiment.
Valuation/estimates: We expect Frigoglass to remain in the red in 2016 due to weak
demand in Europe, which is the market where Frigoglass is mainly making its money. We
have set an end-2016 target price of EUR 2.40/share; despite the significant upside, we
remain on the sidelines, as we have not seen signs of a sustainable recovery, while we will
need to see the plans of the management, post the glass sale to be more firm on the case.
Valuation triggers: increased consume confidence in Europe, which leads to increased capex
by bottlers and brewers, further drop in input costs, stabilization or strengthening of EM
currencies like RUB, hefty payout due to the sale of glass sometime in the next quarters.
Downside risks: further macro deterioration in Europe and in other key markets, increase in
input costs, failure to close the glass sale.
Company description: Frigoglass is the global leader in Ice Cold Merchandisers. Its main client
is the Coke system and a number of other blue chip players, especially in the brewing sector.
The group has operations in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia and Australia. Recently the
group launched the Frigoglass Service Operation, which operates across 4 continents in 13
locations delivering value added service solutions.
Frigoglass (FRIr.AT) | Sale of the glass business the key short term catalyst
Company data
Free float (%) 56%
Dividend Yield (%) 0%
Rating Neutral
Ratio analysis 2014 2015f 2016f 2017f
P/E (x) adj. n/m n/m n/m 6.1
P/E on Target Price (x) n/m n/m n/m 10.2
PEG (x) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
P/CE (x) 21.1 n/m 8.4 3.0
P/BV (x) 2.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
P/FCFE (x) 3.5 0.5 13.3 6.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.4 8.5 7.2 4.8
EV/Sales (x) 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.5
Earnings yield -16.8% -39.6% -3.8% 16.4%
FCFE yield 28.4% 196.8% 7.5% 15.6%
ROA -2.3% -6.1% -0.8% 3.5%
RoE -36.0% -43.5% -4.2% 16.5%
George Doukas
Tel: +30 2103354093

39
Frigoglass (FRIr.AT) | Income Statement
Frigoglass - Profit & Loss estimates
EUR mn FY 14* FY 15e FY 16f FY 17f
Sales 339.6 326.2 336.9 367.7
Coolers 339.6 326.2 336.9 367.7
Glass 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
EBITDA 29.3 23.7 27.0 38.2
EBITDA (clean)
29.3 23.7 27.0 38.2
EBITDA margin 8.6% 7.3% 8.0% 10.4%
Depreciation 17.6 14.9 12.9 13.5
EBIT 11.6 8.8 14.1 24.7
Net financial expense 10.04 33.40 16.46 5.80
EBT 1.6 -24.6 -2.4 18.9
Tax 10.9 7.9 0.7 5.5
Minorities (after-tax) 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net profit -13.7 -32.4 -3.1 13.4
Net profit (clean) -23.5 -32.4 -3.1 13.4
EPS -0.27 -0.64 -0.06 0.27
EPS (clean) -0.47 -0.64 -0.06 0.27
DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09
FY14 results are proforma, excluding glass

40
Frigoglass (FRIr.AT) | Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Frigoglass - Consolidated Balance Sheet
EUR mn
Proforma
FY 14
ProForma
FY 15f
ProForma
FY 16f
Proforma
FY17f
Net fixed assets 115.7 112.8 101.8 90.6
Inventory 72.9 72.5 75.2 80.7
Other current assets 142.8 125.8 127.5 137.2
Total assets 591.6 535.8 381.2 382.2
Total equity 77.0 113.3 111.3 120.0
Source: Company, Piraeus Securities Greek Equity
Research
Frigoglass - Cash Flow Statements
EUR mn FY 13 FY 14 FY 15f FY 16f
Cash earnings 47.77 -13.82 2.82 28.52
Change in Working Capital 1.1 19.2 5.2 -13.5
CAPEX (net) -25.6 -12.0 -1.8 -2.2
Change in capital -35.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in debt 8.8 -31.7 -155.2 -14.8
Dividend paid -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other -20.2
Minorities 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Exchange difference 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in cash -19.5 129.5 -149.0 -2.1
Cash beginning 59.5 41.0 170.5 21.6
Cash, end of year 40.0 170.5 21.6 19.5
Source: Company, Piraeus Securities Greek Equity
Research

41
Hellenic Telecoms (OTEr.AT) | Resilient business model
Q3 ’15 results: OTE reported net revenues of Eur971.5 mn (-1.7% yoy), affected by weak Romtelecom; recurring
EBITDA of Eur350.1 mn (-5.7% yoy) impacted by the absence of one-offs and increased distribution costs in
Romania; and net profit of Eur78.3 mn (+13.3% yoy). The domestic fixed-line revenues were up 0.2% yoy thanks
to a) the slowdown in line losses which led to the stabilization of retail revenues and b) increased take-up of
broadband and TV services which led to a rise in wholesale revenues by 4.4% yoy. EBITDA margin rose to 41.7%
from 40.1% in Q3 ’14. The Greek mobile reported service revenue decline of 3.3% yoy and EBITDA margin
contraction of 100 bps yoy to 39.6%, on the weak economic environment in Greece. Telecom Romania reported
EBITDA decline of 31.7% yoy due to the 46% yoy decline of real estate and copper sales. Romania mobile
reported a decline in service revenues of 2.7% yoy and EBITDA margin of 24.4%, down 150 bps yoy on high
distribution costs. OTE reported FCF of Eur93 mn (-27% yoy), impacted by liquidity restrictions in the economy.
At end-Sept 2015, OTE had net debt of Eur1.09 bn or c0.8x EBITDA and cash balance of Eur1.05 bn.
Outlook: The positive fixed-line trends should be further supported by the slow-down in line losses, improving
competitive environment and growing broadband and pay-TV subscriber numbers. EBITDA should be supported
by the top line improvement and cost cutting. At end-June ‘15, OTE completed a VES for more than 600 people
expected to yield Eur30 mn of annual savings. We would expect the decline in mobile revenues to continue due
to lower consumer spending. The bank holiday and the capital controls initially led to a deterioration in the
working capital, which has started normalizing. At Q3 ‘15 results CC, management said that recurring FCF should
end up close to the initial target of Eur0.5 bn, partly subject to the clearing of accruals by state entities (the
Greek state accounts for 5%-10% of fixed-line revenues). Management also reiterated capex target of Eur0.5 bn,
with room to postpone or scale down projects.
Valuation: Our DCF-based SoTPs model provides a TP of Eur10.2 as of end-2016, which values the group at 4.3x
2016E EBITDA. We have used a rf of 8.0% for the Greek operations. In terms of valuation sensitivity to the rf, for
every 1% change in the rf, TP changes by c7.0%. We raise OTE to Outperform (from Neutral) on improved
risk/reward.
Valuation triggers: Key drivers of the domestic telecom market are rising broadband and pay-TV penetration,
regulatory stabilization and consolidation activity. The aforementioned benefits should be accentuated by the
recovery of the economy.
Downside risks: OTE derives 75% of its revenues and 80% of its EBITDA in Greece. Weak consumer, govt and
corporate spending should affect revenues, EBITDA and cash flows. OTE is also subject to regulatory risks.
Company description OTE has fixed-line market share of c57% with 2.7 mn retail access lines, broadband market
share of c44% with 1.46 mn broadband retail subscribers and 414k TV subscribers. It owns 54% of Telecom
Romania (2.16 m voice lines, 1.2 mn broadband subscribers, 1.4 mn TV subscribers) with the remaining being
held by the Romanian govt. It has mobile operations in Greece (Cosmote has c50% market share with 7.4 mn
subscribers); in Romania (Telecom Romania Mobile has a market share of c23% and 5.76 mn subscribers); and in
Albania (Telecom Albania has 2.0 mn subscribers). Shareholders are DT (40%) and the Greek state (10%). DT has
a right of first refusal on the Greek state’s stake.
Company data
Market cap. (€ mn) 3,725.14
Closing Price -Jan 22 (€) 7.60
#ofshares (mn) 490.15
52W average volume (#) 643,271
Target Price (€) 10.2
Rating (new) Outperform
Rating (old) Neutral
Natasha Roumantzi
Tel: +30 210 335 4065
Email: nroumantzi@piraeus-sec.gr
Valuation ratios(Jan 22) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
P/E(x) reported 12.94 13.93 20.21 13.78 11.78
P/E(x) recurring 15.25 11.74 13.58 13.78 11.78
EV/EBITDA(x) reported 4.43 3.50 3.79 3.26 2.79
EV/EBITDA(x) recurring 3.59 3.41 3.51 3.26 2.79
EV/Revenues (x) 1.29 1.24 1.23 1.16 1.01
P/BVPS (x) 1.94 1.76 1.64 1.50 1.36
FCFEYield (%) 20.1% 15.7% 11.2% 12.7% 15.8%
Div Yield (%) 0.00% 1.05% 1.09% 1.38% 1.78%
Earnings yield (%) 6.6% 8.5% 7.4% 7.3% 8.5%
Fundamentals 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E
FCF recurring (€ mn) 749 583 418 471 588
Dividend (€ mn) 0 39 41 51 66
DPS (€) - 0.08 0.08 0.10 0.14
EPS reported (€) 0.59 0.55 0.38 0.55 0.65
EPS recurring (€) 0.50 0.65 0.56 0.55 0.65
Net Debt/Equity (x) 0.78 0.53 0.44 0.25 0.03
Net Debt/EBITDArecurring (x) 1.03 0.79 0.74 0.46 0.05
ROE(%) 13.9% 15.7% 12.5% 11.4% 12.1%
Sources: company data & Piraeus Securities estimates

42
Hellenic Telecoms (OTEr.AT) | Income Statement: 2012-2017E
Income statement (Eur mn) 2012A 2013A * 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E
Revenues:
OTE - fixed line 1,704.0 1,557.2 1,511.7 1,513.2 1,505.6 1,513.2
% chg -10.9% -8.6% -2.9% 0.1% -0.5% 0.5%
Mobile 2,057.0 1,881.2 1,772.3 1,690.6 1,590.1 1,608.5
% chg -20.9% -8.5% -5.8% -4.6% -5.9% 1.2%
Telecom Romania - fixed line 619.6 609.5 609.1 593.9 587.9 587.9
% chg -5.4% -1.6% -0.1% -2.5% -1.0% 0.0%
All Other 462.1 448.0 456.2 469.9 469.9 469.9
% chg -0.6% -3.1% 1.8% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Group operating revenues (net) 4,330.3 4,054.1 3,918.4 3,840.8 3,738.2 3,761.5
EBITDA:
OTE - fixed line 494.5 568.3 599.2 620.4 632.4 635.5
margin 29.0% 36.5% 39.6% 41.0% 42.0% 42.0%
Mobile 755.9 652.8 594.6 543.2 507.5 530.7
margin 36.7% 34.7% 33.5% 32.1% 31.9% 33.0%
Telecom Romania - fixed line 166.1 159.3 159.9 117.5 123.5 129.3
margin 26.8% 26.1% 26.3% 19.8% 21.0% 22.0%
All Other 101.9 81.1 67.9 65.8 65.8 65.8
margin 22% 18% 15% 14% 14% 14%
VRS provisions (123.0) (278.4) (36.1) (100.0) - -
Total EBITDA reported 1,392.9 1,177.9 1,385.5 1,246.9 1,329.2 1,361.3
EBITDA margin 32.2% 29.1% 35.4% 32.5% 35.6% 36.2%
Total EBITDA recurring 1,515.9 1,456.3 1,421.6 1,346.9 1,329.2 1,361.3
EBITDA margin 35.0% 35.9% 36.3% 35.1% 35.6% 36.2%
Depreciation & amortization (818.4) (842.5) (796.4) (811.4) (811.4) (811.4)
EBIT reported 574.5 335.4 589.1 435.5 517.8 549.9
Net financial expense (5.3) (20.6) (193.7) (133.2) (101.4) (68.4)
EBT reported 569.2 314.8 395.4 302.2 416.4 481.5
Income taxes (103.9) (130.9) (123.9) (108.0) (141.1) (159.9)
Other taxes 110.0 (20.0)
Less minorities 25.2 6.1 4.1 (10.0) 5.0 5.3
Net Profit recurring 363.5 244.2 317.3 274.3 270.3 316.3
Net Profit reported 440.1 287.8 267.4 184.3 270.3 316.3
Sources: OTE & Piraeus Securities estimates

43
Hellenic Telecoms (OTEr.AT)|Balance Sheet & Cash Flow:2012-2017E
Balance Sheet (Eur mn) 2012A 2013A* 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Fixed Assets 3,914 3,279 3,103 2,897 2,626 2,354
Net Intangible (telecommunication licenses) 448 475 575 605 605 605
Goodwill from consolidated subsidiaries 567 506 506 506 506 506
Investments 1 0 0 0 0 0
Other Long -Term assets 1,054 1,089 1,126 1,126 1,126 1,126
Inventories 111 97 88 84 82 82
Accounts receivables 823 703 685 705 686 670
Other current assets 276 233 208 204 198 188
Cash & cash equivalents 1,172 1,461 1,514 1,205 964 1,366
Total assets 8,366 7,843 7,804 7,332 6,793 6,898
Equity (it includesminorities) 1,989 2,296 2,498 2,632 2,856 3,111
ofwhich Minority interests 390 375 376 366 371 377
Reserve for VRS - - - - - -
Long-term loans 2,635 2,557 2,173 1,496 1,440 706
Other long-term liabilities 675 584 698 634 617 621
Short-term loans 1,416 400 465 710 134 734
Accounts payable 785 924 998 979 952 958
Other current liabilities 733 846 828 768 710 715
Reserve for VRS (current portion) 134 238 143 113 83 53
Liabilities& shareholdersfunds 8,366 7,843 7,804 7,332 6,793 6,898
*Globul has been deconsolidated as of2013
Sources: OTE& Piraeus Securities estimates
Cash flow (Eur mn) 2012A 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E
Net Income 440 288 267 184 270 316
Depreciation & Amortization 818 843 796 811 811 811
Other (88) (136) (148) (162) (105) (21)
Change in Working Capital (10) 273 102 (36) (5) 22
Assets classified as held for sale
Operating Cash Flow 1,161 1,268 1,018 798 971 1,128
Capex (net) (554) (605) (604) (635) (540) (540)
Free Cash Flow (recurring) 606 749 583 418 471 588
Sale ofCosmofon (less capital gains),
acquisition ofZAPP, acquisition ofGermanos
10% minority stake, sale ofTelecom Serbia, 380 720
Free Cash Flow 986 1,383 414 163 431 588
Change in debt: increase/(decrease) (851) (1,094) (318) (432) (632) (134)
Dividends - - - 39 41 51
Share buyback 43
Financing Cash Flow (851) (1,094) (361) (471) (673) (186)
Change in cash 135 289 53 (308) (241) 402
Cash Balance 1,172 1,461 1,514 1,205 964 1,366
Sources: OTE& Piraeus Securities estimates

44
Recession Proof……..
6M Sales pre-announcement Jumbo announced that 6M15/16 sales came in at EUR 371.7mn, increased by 8.97%
posting strong performance across all geographical segments. Sales preannouncement implies strong performance
during the 2Q15/16 period, with sales shaping at EUR 219.1mn, up 12%. Strong growth momentum is mainly
attributed to ‘’increased productivity’’ in Greek operations that posted increased sales by 3% during the 6M period;
2Q performance is even more impressive for Greek operations with the implied sales growth standing at 6.6% or
EUR 152.4mn. Management commented that 6M sales in Cyprus and Bulgaria stood in line with initial
expectations, while sales in Romania doubled. During the current FY, Group’s restructuring plan includes the
closure of two small, first generation stores, which in the future will be replaced by new hyper stores in areas
where the Group is not present yet.
Raised Guidance The impressive performance during the 1H/2Q period is mainly attributed to the strong
performance of the Greek operations that exceeded all expectations – it is clear that this is attributed to market
share gains related to the value for money concept adopted by the Group, while it seems that the capital controls
imposed by the Greek government led to reduced competition in the Greek market. Following the positive 6M
sales pre-announcement, the management raised its guidance for the FY 2015/16 period and now expects
increased sales in the range of 6-8% vs. the previous estimate that called for increased sales in the range of 0-4%.
Valuation We raise our estimates to incorporate Group’s strong performance during the 6M period. We stand in
line with Company’s guidance for FY 2015/16 and we now project sales of EUR 627.75mn, up 7.8% y-o-y, EBITDA of
EUR 169.3mn, increased 6.3% and Net Profit of EUR 111.7mn up 6.5%. We raise our target price to EUR 11.8/share
from EUR 11.2/share, before, with an implied upside potential of 21% from current levels, thus reiterating an
Outperform rating. Our DCF-P/E derived target price reflects a targeted P/E of 13.6x the Group's FY 2016/17
projected earnings, slightly above Group’s pre-crisis historical average of 13.1x. We are modeling Sales, EBITDA and
NI CAGRs of 7.1%, 6.0% and 6.4%, respectively, during the 2015/16-2017/18 period. We proceed with an upgrade
of our estimates to incorporate the strong top line performance during the 6M period; on the gross profit margin
front, we are modeling gross profit margin contraction of 28bps for the current FY. We expect the EBITDA margin
to stabilize at around 27% benefited from increased operating efficiency. We are now modeling an effective tax
rate of 24.7%.
Valuation triggers Apart from lower bond yields (ie lower sovereign risks), faster or more rollouts and higher-than-
expected same-store sales (on improved customer visits and/or higher spending per customer) are the two main
factors that could place upside risk on our estimates.
Downside risks Medium term, the investment case depends on domestic private consumption, the timing of new
store rollouts, and the pace of expansion in Romania. Additional taxation of any form would hurt earnings and
valuation. Jumbo’s management has cautioned investors over the impact from VAT hikes, COGS inflation, higher
freights and a weaker Euro vis-à-vis the USD on the group’s gross profit margin. We also highlight risks associated
with overdependence on Chairman Vakakis and the remote event of important injury from a non-branded product
malfunction.
Company description Jumbo is the largest retailer and wholesaler of toys, infant products, books & stationery and
seasonal, home & mother opportunity products in Greece. It enjoys a 40% share in the domestic market. The
Company’s distribution network at the end of 2016 will accounted for 73 retail stores, 53 in Greece, 5 in Cyprus, 8
in Bulgaria and 7 in Romania with a net sales surface of c. 412,103m2.
Jumbo (BABr.AT): Recession Proof…
Company data
Market cap. (EUR mn) 1,327.94
Rating Outperform
Iakovos Kourtesis
Tel: +30 2103354083
Fundamentals(€ m) 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016F 2016/2017E 2017/2018E
Sales 502.18 541.85 582.55 627.75 668.06 714.83
ReportedEBITDA 110.39 146.52 159.26 169.26 178.17 189.43
RecurringEBITDA 133.96 146.52 159.26 169.26 178.17 189.43
Reportednet profit 73.96 101.25 104.84 111.67 117.77 126.32
EPS(€) 0.57 0.74 0.77 0.82 0.87 0.93
DPS(€) 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.22 0.23 0.25
FCFyield(%) 3.3% 5.3% 7.2% 4.0% 5.9% 6.2%
Valuationratios 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016F 2016/2017E 2017/2018E
P/E(x) 12.83 16.07 9.63 11.89 11.28 10.51
EV/Sales (x) 1.85 2.78 1.47 1.78 1.59 1.40
EV/EBITDA(x) 8.40 10.27 5.38 6.60 5.97 5.28

45
Jumbo (BABr.AT) | Income Statement
PROFIT& LOSS Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 e Jun-17 e Jun-18 e
Turnover 490.0 494.3 502.2 541.8 582.5 627.7 668.1 714.8
% chng 0.5% 0.9% 1.6% 7.9% 7.5% 7.8% 6.4% 7.0%
COGS & SG&A 354.8 359.9 368.1 395.3 423.4 458.5 489.9 525.4
EBITDA 135.1 134.4 110.4 146.5 159.3 169.3 178.2 189.4
% chng -6.6% -0.5% -17.9% 9.4% 8.7% 6.3% 5.3% 6.3%
EBITDAmargin 27.6% 27.2% 22.0% 27.0% 27.3% 27.0% 26.7% 26.5%
Net depreciation 15.3 17.4 18.9 19.4 21.2 22.7 24.2 25.7
EBIT 119.9 117.0 91.6 127.1 137.9 146.5 153.9 163.7
% chng -9.1% -2.4% -21.7% 10.4% 8.5% 6.2% 5.1% 6.3%
Net interest expenses -1.4 -2.4 -4.1 -2.9 1.0 -1.9 -2.6 -4.2
% ofavg debt -20.3% 14.8% 16.0% 4.0% -0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 1.4%
Pre-tax profit 121.3 119.5 95.7 130.0 137.0 148.4 156.5 167.9
% chng -6.5% -1.5% -19.9% 35.8% 5.4% 8.3% 5.5% 7.3%
Minority stake in profits 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Minority profit/Net profit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0%
Income tax 26.7 22.2 21.7 28.7 32.1 36.7 38.7 41.5
% effectivetax rate 22.0% 18.6% 22.7% 22.1% 23.4% 24.7% 24.7% 24.7%
Profit after tax 94.6 97.3 74.0 101.2 104.8 111.7 117.8 126.3
% chng 19.4% 2.9% -24.0% 36.9% 3.5% 6.5% 5.5% 7.3%
EPS after tax (in Euro) 0.73 0.75 0.57 0.74 0.77 0.82 0.87 0.93
EPS chng 17.6% 2.9% -24.0% 31.0% 3.5% 6.5% 5.5% 7.3%
Dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.0 0.0 30.1 31.8 34.1
DPS (in Euro) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.22 0.23 0.25
% chng na na na na -100.0% n/a 5.5% 7.3%
Market cap 639 377 948 1,627 1,010 1,328 1,328 1,328
Diluted number ofshares 130,148,975 130,148,973 129,994,676 136,029,796 136,059,759 136,059,759 136,059,759 136,059,759
Basic number ofshares 130,148,975 130,148,973 129,994,676 136,059,759 136,059,759 136,059,759 136,059,759 136,059,759
EV 637 347 927 1,505 857 1,116 1,063 1,000
End-year/current stock price common shares 4.92 2.90 7.29 11.96 7.42 9.76 9.76 9.76
% chng ofcommon stock price 4.0% -41.0% 151.1% 64.1% -38.0% 31.5% 0.0% 0.0%
Out/under performance 16.6% 23.5% 81.1% 14.5% -5.5% 96.3% 0.0% 0.0%

46
Jumbo (BABr.AT) | B/S & Cash Flow Statement
BALANCE SHEET Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 e Jun-17 e Jun-18 e
Net fixed assets 378 415 431 446 498 525 550 574
Current Assets 396 412 421 552 557 640 707 784
Inventories 174 180 176 186 198 217 227 235
Cash 158 185 170 288 299 339 379 419
TOTAL ASSETS 795 857 894 1,034 1,090 1,199 1,291 1,392
Net debt position -2 -31 -21 -122 -152 -212 -265 -328
Shareholders' equity 523 593 639 745 797 909 997 1,091
Bank debt 154 152 1 144 144 144 144 144
Subsidies 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
TOTAL EQUITY & LIABILITIES 795 857 894 1,034 1,090 1,199 1,291 1,392
RATIO ANALYSIS Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 e Jun-17 e Jun-18 e
Activity: Avg working capital to turnover days 125 122 120 119 114 112 117 116
Avg receivables to turnover days 257 257 257 257 257 257 257 257
Avg trade creditors to purchases days 159 159 159 159 159 159 159 159
Avg inventories to turnover days 121 121 121 121 121 121 121 121
Financial Structure: Bank debt to equity 0.30 0.26 0.23 0.22 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.13
Fixed to total assets 50.2% 51.9% 52.9% 46.7% 48.9% 46.7% 45.3% 43.7%
Profitability: Return on total assets 12.4% 11.8% 8.4% 10.5% 9.9% 9.8% 9.5% 9.4%
Return on equity 19.4% 17.4% 12.0% 14.6% 13.6% 13.1% 12.4% 12.1%
Return on capital employed 13.4% 12.5% 9.4% 10.9% 11.4% 10.9% 10.5% 10.3%
CASH FLOW Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 e Jun-17 e Jun-18 e
Profit after tax before minorities 81.8 90.5 78.4 111.7 105.3 111.7 117.8 126.3
Plus: net interest expenses -1.4 -2.4 -4.1 -2.9 1.0 -1.9 -2.6 -4.2
Less: gain/loss on disposal of PP&E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Gross cash flow 95.7 105.5 93.1 128.2 127.5 132.5 139.5 146.9
Plus: Chng in accounts payable 8.0 -2.2 -3.6 -0.1 -0.8 -6.0 0.6 0.8
Less: Chng in accounts receivable 6.0 -9.4 5.1 7.0 -15.2 3.5 1.6 1.9
Less: Chng in inventories -2.0 6.0 -4.5 10.2 11.6 19.6 9.4 8.2
Working capital chng -1.8 -3.9 3.2 20.5 -9.3 30.4 11.7 15.5
Operating cash flow 97.5 109.4 68.5 121.0 129.0 102.2 127.7 131.4
Less: Chng in investments -0.3 -0.2 -1.0 -0.6 -2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
Free cash flow 41.1 59.6 31.2 85.7 72.7 53.0 78.6 82.2

47
3Q 2015 results: MOH reported adjusted EBITDA of EUR 172.7mn (+53%), while EPS stood at EUR 0.71
up from EUR 0.48 in 3Q 2014 and above our EUR 0.70 estimate. However excluding a one-off tax that
was not in our estimates, the EPS was EUR 0.82. The Q3 inventory losses stood at EUR 61mn, broadly in
line with expectations. MOH reported a clean refining margin of USD 75.4/mt in Q3, 12% higher YoY,
somewhat below our estimate of USD 76.4/mt. The OpCF post capex stood at EUR 153.5mn in Q3 (vs.
EUR 44mn in 3Q2014) and EUR 200mn in 9M 15 vs. EUR 71mn last year driven by good WC
management.
Outlook: Benchmark margins remained strong in Q3 and Q4 and should remain at elevated levels in the
short term, due to consistently low crude levels and the favourable EURUSD rate. Motor Oil is hedged
against Greek weakness by generating c69% of its sales through exports.
Valuation/Estimates: On our Q3 review report (23 Nov.2016) we raised our 2016 estimates by c13% in
the operating line and 18% in the bottom line, as we assume lower Brent price and stronger USD
compared to our previous estimates. Valuation-wise, we rolled over our model to get an end-2016
target price; our exercise now returns a target price of EUR 14.0/share from EUR 12.0 previously. MOH
currently trades at a 47% and 62% discount in EV/EBITDA 16-17e respectively vs its peers.
Valuation triggers: Further improvement in benchmark margins, further strengthening of the USD vs
the EUR, macro normalization in Greece and lower oil prices could stimulate domestic demand, which
could increase the contribution of domestic sales, which command higher margins compared to
exports.
Downside risks: Domestic macro deterioration, a spike in political risk which could jeopardize the
recovery, deterioration of benchmark margins.
Company description: Motor Oil operates one of the most complex refineries in Europe with a total
capacity of over 180,000 bbl/d. The Nelson complexity index of the refinery stands at 11.54. The
refinery includes a hydrocracker and an FCC complex and thus they can produce a wide array of
products. The refinery exports c69% of its production with the rest absorbed in the domestic market.
Apart from the refinery, the group also owns a large number of owned petrol stations, among which
the Shell franchise.
Motor Oil (MORr.AT) | Strong benchmark margins drive profits
Company data
Closing price - Jan.22 (EUR ) 8.91
Rating Outperform
P/E (x) -11.8 4.5 3.5 4.4
P/BV (x) 2.4 1.6 1.2 1.0
P/CE (x) 4.9 2.8 2.6 3.0
P/FCFE (x) 9.5 3.9 2.8 3.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 36.5 3.3 2.3 2.3
EV/Sales (x) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
RoCE -2.73% 21.78% 28.12% 24.06%
RoIC -2.73% 21.76% 28.08% 24.02%
RoE 25.58% 40.97% 33.09% 22.67%
RoA 4.38% 9.84% 9.71% 7.15%
Earnings yield 10.68% 26.11% 28.21% 22.48%
Dividend Yield 0.00% 6.69% 8.56% 7.88%
Net debt to equity (x) 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.2
Net debt to market cap. (x) 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2
Net Debt/ EBITDA (x) 17.3 1.3 0.6 0.4
Net debt/Clean EBITDA (x) 2.9 1.2 0.6 0.4
George Doukas
Tel: +30 2103354093

48
Motor Oil (MORr.AT) | Income Statement
Motor Oil Group | Profit & Loss Statements
EUR mn 2014 2015 2016 2017
EBITDA 51.48 489.33 574.37 496.66
EBITDA margin 0.6% 7.1% 7.9% 6.1%
Inventory gains/losses -251.00 -55.00 0.00 0.00
'LIFO' EBITDA 302.48 544.33 574.37 496.66
'LIFO' EBITDA margin 3.3% 7.9% 7.9% 6.1%
EBIT -46.28 390.02 472.68 392.58
EBIT margin -0.5% 5.7% 6.5% 4.9%
Financial income 12.85 1.22 1.68 1.97
Interest income 2.69 1.22 1.68 1.97
Capital gain 10.17 0.00 0.00 0.00
Earnings from participations 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Interest expense 74.62 83.84 80.41 80.41
Extra-ordinary income 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
EBT -108.05 307.40 393.94 314.14
EBT margin -1.2% 4.5% 5.4% 3.9%
Tax -24.87 90.24 115.33 92.07
EATBM -83.18 217.16 278.61 222.07
Net profit -83.30 217.02 278.46 221.93

49
Motor Oil (MORr.AT) | Balance Sheet and Cash Flow
Motor Oil Group, Cash Flow Statements
EUR mn 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Cash earnings 83.58 0.98 324.25 382.81
Working capital chg 86.43 163.35 -20.28 20.58
Operating cash flows 46.7% 317.3% -4.1% 3.6%
CAPEX 170.01 164.32 303.97 403.40
Free cash flow -70.33 -60.66 -49.00 -49.00
Free cash flow yield -38.0% -117.8% -10.0% -8.5%
New debt 99.68 103.66 254.97 354.40
New capital 10.1% 10.5% 25.8% 35.9%
Other items -129.97 104.17 -24.94 0.00
Dividend paid -11.08 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net change in cash 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Cash, beginning -33.39 -22.28 0.00 -66.07
Cash, end -74.75 185.54 230.04 288.33
Motor Oil Group | Balance Sheet
EUR mn 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Intangible assets 49.39 47.15 41.87 36.56
Tangible assets 1,083.18 1,073.79 1,028.75 981.37
Other long term assets 100.37 96.25 96.25 96.25
Total fixed assets 1,232.95 1,217.19 1,166.87 1,114.18
Inventory 542.75 484.48 500.73 490.70
Trade & other receivables 445.70 399.54 413.79 437.43
Total assets 2,343.08 2,408.42 2,618.65 2,867.90
Share capital (& premium) 83.09 83.09 83.09 83.09
Reserves 437.35 328.97 545.99 758.39
Shareholders funds 520.44 412.06 629.08 841.48
Minority rights 1.21 1.44 1.58 1.72
Total equity 521.65 413.50 630.66 843.20
Long term debt 717.19 827.21 967.74 967.74
Other long term liabilities 131.74 118.40 118.40 118.40
Short term debt 331.19 370.78 205.32 205.32
Trade payables 637.53 674.12 684.33 718.53
Other payables 3.79 4.42 12.19 14.70
Total liabilities 1,821.43 1,994.92 1,987.97 2,024.68
Total liabilities & equity 2,343.08 2,408.42 2,618.63 2,867.87
Net fixed assets 1,101.21 1,098.79 1,048.48 995.78
Working capital 347.13 205.49 218.00 194.90
Invested capital 1,448.34 1,304.28 1,266.47 1,190.68
of which: Net debt 926.69 890.78 635.79 347.46

Greek Market Update February 2016

Greek Market Update February 2016

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