- The Greek equity market has turned positive in recent months led by strong performance from non-financial stocks, though it still lags other European markets year-to-date.
- Two top picks, Motor Oil and OPAP, have outperformed the market since the previous report. Valuation of the non-bank universe implies an upside potential of 5.9%.
- Key events in the coming months include results of the asset quality review and stress tests of Greek banks in October/November as well as the recapitalization process.
Triunfo Participações e Investimentos announced its third quarter 2011 results. Revenue increased 20.5% to R$208 million due to growth in toll road traffic, port handling volumes, and power generation. However, adjusted EBITDA fell 15.7% to R$73 million due to start-up costs for new businesses like Maestra shipping and Rio Canoas Energia. The company reported a net loss of R$14.8 million compared to a R$13.9 million profit in 3Q10. Triunfo continued expanding its portfolio with new acquisitions and investments in toll roads, ports, shipping and power generation.
EEB is a leading energy company in Colombia and Latin America with a wide portfolio of electricity and natural gas businesses. It has majority market shares in electricity transmission in Colombia and Peru, and natural gas transportation and distribution in Colombia. EEB aims to grow its business through investments in existing operations and new acquisitions. It had over $4 billion in revenues in 2014 and has access to financial markets to fund its $3.4 billion investment plan between 2013-2019, focusing on expanding electricity transmission networks. EEB provides stable returns to its shareholders through consistent dividend payouts.
Annual General Meeting: Report of the Chief Executive OfficerDeutsche Börse AG
- The document is the speech from the CEO of Deutsche Börse AG, Reto Francioni, at the company's annual general meeting on May 13, 2015.
- In 2014, Deutsche Börse saw a 7% increase in net revenue to €2,043 million and a 3% increase in EBIT to €982.8 million. The company proposed a stable dividend of €2.10 per share, distributing 58% of net income.
- In Q1 2015, net revenue increased 16% to €600 million and adjusted EBIT grew 16% to €319 million. The CEO was confident about the full year results based on this strong start.
Snam and its peers reported largely positive 1Q 2015 results. Snam's net profit increased 11% year-over-year to €325 million, driven by growth in revenue and efficiency measures. Italgas, a Snam subsidiary, acquired full control of Acam Gas. Stock markets were mostly higher in April, while the utility sector rose 0.8%, bolstered by French water companies. Oil prices significantly increased in April due to production declines and geopolitical tensions.
A positive trend in global stock markets in July was driven by developments in the Greek crisis. Oil prices declined sharply due to weak fundamentals and increased Iranian supply. Snam shares closed up 5% in July, outperforming utility sector indexes, as half-year results met expectations. Snam reported a 9.1% rise in first half net profit supported by infrastructure investments and contributions from associates.
CSVs (Climate Smart Villages) are focal points for location-specific research on climate change adaptation options to improve food security, nutrition, and resilience. CSVs represent different agro-ecologies and climate risks, providing a platform to develop technological, social, institutional, and policy innovations through participatory research. CSVs help test and develop solutions to anticipate climate change impacts at a scale relevant to communities. They promote local adaptation and capacity building by engaging researchers, farmers, and stakeholders in a defined geographic area. The integrity of the CSV as a research unit should not be compromised, otherwise its emphasis on generating local evidence is lost.
Are you doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results? This is the definition of insanity. It is time to get real and get results. Successful leaders make choices every day that move them in the direction of his/her vision. You have the power to achieve all that you want. The secret to getting there is in understanding 3 words: My Daily Habits.
At the end of this seminar, participants will be able to:
a. Identify skill gaps through leadership assessments.
b. Explore leadership habits that get results.
c. List ineffective habits and create a personal action plan.
Triunfo Participações e Investimentos announced its third quarter 2011 results. Revenue increased 20.5% to R$208 million due to growth in toll road traffic, port handling volumes, and power generation. However, adjusted EBITDA fell 15.7% to R$73 million due to start-up costs for new businesses like Maestra shipping and Rio Canoas Energia. The company reported a net loss of R$14.8 million compared to a R$13.9 million profit in 3Q10. Triunfo continued expanding its portfolio with new acquisitions and investments in toll roads, ports, shipping and power generation.
EEB is a leading energy company in Colombia and Latin America with a wide portfolio of electricity and natural gas businesses. It has majority market shares in electricity transmission in Colombia and Peru, and natural gas transportation and distribution in Colombia. EEB aims to grow its business through investments in existing operations and new acquisitions. It had over $4 billion in revenues in 2014 and has access to financial markets to fund its $3.4 billion investment plan between 2013-2019, focusing on expanding electricity transmission networks. EEB provides stable returns to its shareholders through consistent dividend payouts.
Annual General Meeting: Report of the Chief Executive OfficerDeutsche Börse AG
- The document is the speech from the CEO of Deutsche Börse AG, Reto Francioni, at the company's annual general meeting on May 13, 2015.
- In 2014, Deutsche Börse saw a 7% increase in net revenue to €2,043 million and a 3% increase in EBIT to €982.8 million. The company proposed a stable dividend of €2.10 per share, distributing 58% of net income.
- In Q1 2015, net revenue increased 16% to €600 million and adjusted EBIT grew 16% to €319 million. The CEO was confident about the full year results based on this strong start.
Snam and its peers reported largely positive 1Q 2015 results. Snam's net profit increased 11% year-over-year to €325 million, driven by growth in revenue and efficiency measures. Italgas, a Snam subsidiary, acquired full control of Acam Gas. Stock markets were mostly higher in April, while the utility sector rose 0.8%, bolstered by French water companies. Oil prices significantly increased in April due to production declines and geopolitical tensions.
A positive trend in global stock markets in July was driven by developments in the Greek crisis. Oil prices declined sharply due to weak fundamentals and increased Iranian supply. Snam shares closed up 5% in July, outperforming utility sector indexes, as half-year results met expectations. Snam reported a 9.1% rise in first half net profit supported by infrastructure investments and contributions from associates.
CSVs (Climate Smart Villages) are focal points for location-specific research on climate change adaptation options to improve food security, nutrition, and resilience. CSVs represent different agro-ecologies and climate risks, providing a platform to develop technological, social, institutional, and policy innovations through participatory research. CSVs help test and develop solutions to anticipate climate change impacts at a scale relevant to communities. They promote local adaptation and capacity building by engaging researchers, farmers, and stakeholders in a defined geographic area. The integrity of the CSV as a research unit should not be compromised, otherwise its emphasis on generating local evidence is lost.
Are you doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results? This is the definition of insanity. It is time to get real and get results. Successful leaders make choices every day that move them in the direction of his/her vision. You have the power to achieve all that you want. The secret to getting there is in understanding 3 words: My Daily Habits.
At the end of this seminar, participants will be able to:
a. Identify skill gaps through leadership assessments.
b. Explore leadership habits that get results.
c. List ineffective habits and create a personal action plan.
PorscheofNorthHoustonReceivesTop100DealershipsToWorkForAward_releaseTodd Blue
Porsche of North Houston, which is part of the indiGO Auto Group, received the Automotive News Best Dealerships to Work For 2015 award. Todd Blue, CEO of indiGO Auto Group, accepted the award on behalf of Porsche of North Houston. The award recognizes the top 100 dealerships in the US and Canada that excel at creating a quality workplace. This is the first time Porsche of North Houston participated in the survey since it opened in 2010. Blue said that indiGO Auto Group has built a culture that invites employees to participate in the company's success.
The document summarizes the European Open Source Market Place AppHub project. AppHub received EU Horizon 2020 funding to facilitate the dissemination of open source software assets. It provides an open interoperability framework including a directory to describe and classify assets, a factory to package and publish them, and a store for browsing, selecting, and deploying assets on cloud platforms. The goal is to help open source SMEs and collaborative projects reach the mainstream market.
This document discusses three gas laws: Boyle's law, Charles's law, and Avogadro's law. Boyle's law states that at a constant temperature, the pressure and volume of a gas are inversely proportional. Charles's law describes how gases expand when heated, with temperature and volume being directly related at constant pressure. Avogadro's law establishes that equal volumes of gases at the same temperature and pressure contain equal numbers of molecules.
Remind is a communication platform that allows teachers to connect instantly and safely with students and parents by text message, helping to increase parent engagement, student literacy, and other educational outcomes. It provides a simple, accessible way for teachers to send messages, files, and conduct two-way chat conversations without sharing phone numbers. The document provides information on how Remind works and its benefits for teachers in improving communication.
TripAdvisor is the world's largest travel website, with over 6,000 unique users looking at reviews every second. It has over 1.5 million listed businesses and 100 million reviews. The document discusses TripAdvisor traffic and interest in various African countries like Kenya, Uganda, and South Africa. It provides data on top international cities viewing content on Kenya and other destinations viewed by users in Kenya, the UK, and the US who also viewed Kenya. Nairobi and Mombasa are the top viewed cities in Kenya by international users.
The document outlines meal times at a restaurant or hotel, including breakfast from 7-9am, lunch from 12-1:30pm, and dinner from 5:30-7:30pm. On Sundays, there is a roast dinner from 2-5pm serving beef, potatoes, vegetables, Yorkshire pudding and gravy for the main meal along with strawberries, sponge and cream or custard for dessert. Afternoon tea is also available on Sundays from 3-5pm with sandwiches, scones and tea.
The document summarizes the health and safety procedures and personal protective equipment acquired for a project to build a replica Viking boat called a Faering. It describes the initial steps which included lofting frames from lines drawings onto plywood, carving the keel and stem from oak blocks, and fitting stations along the keel. Planks were steamed to shape and fit into the rabbet and scarfs before being sealed with Sikaflex, as a more modern alternative to the Viking method of using tar and wool.
The document discusses content marketing opportunities and strategies for a company. It begins with an agenda for a presentation on how content marketing fits within the organization and how to understand content marketing. It then covers the differences between content marketing and traditional marketing, analyzing competitors' content and audiences. The document proposes several ideas for content the company could create, and discusses the content marketing process. It addresses pain points clients may be experiencing and seeks input from engineers on their preferred types of content.
La Unión Europea ha propuesto un nuevo paquete de sanciones contra Rusia que incluye un embargo al petróleo ruso. El embargo se aplicaría gradualmente durante seis meses para el petróleo crudo y ocho meses para los productos refinados. Este paquete de sanciones requiere la aprobación unánime de los 27 estados miembros de la UE.
The document discusses warehouse automation technologies from Aberon BY LIGHT including pick-by-light and pick-cart systems. Pick-by-light uses microcomputers installed at picking locations to direct pickers to items and quantities needed for orders. Pick-cart uses a cart with order slots and microcomputers to simultaneously pick multiple orders in a single route. Both systems aim to increase picking productivity by 3x and reduce errors by 95% compared to conventional picking. The document provides details on how each system works and their benefits for automating warehouse order fulfillment.
Operation is the Core Hub of the organizationMaruf Aorno
Operation functions interconnected with other four major functions of the organization. It is the nucleus or hub or it centralized and managing financial/accounting, marketing, human resources and suppliers.
Greek markets have significantly underperformed benchmarks over the past 1.5 years due to the fragile economic environment and political risks in Greece. Greek equity indexes are down nearly 19% since capital controls were imposed in June 2015, though most non-financial stocks have recouped some losses. The report provides upside and downside risks to its valuation of the non-bank universe, including potential catalysts such as a stable pro-reform government, successful bank recapitalization, and debt relief measures. Top picks have international exposure, favorable cycles, or short-term catalysts like OPAP's planned video lottery terminals launch.
The Greek strategy report by Piraeus Securities. Top picks include MOH GA, FFGRP GA, BELA GA and HTO GA. The valuation of our universe implies a 20% upside potential (Jan22 prices).
A noteworthy upward trend was recorded by the Government Bond Index in May that reached a record high of 401 points. Similar levels have not been recorded again since the construction of the index. Furthermore, for the first time, the index recorded a weighted average yield of 7.1%, which is well below its level one month ago. The agreement for the completion on the Greek program evaluation and the three-point plan for debt relief, gave further impetus to the upturn of the index which had already started in mid-March.
The document provides an analysis of the Greek bond market from Piraeus Bank Research. It notes improvements in the Greek Government Bond Index and Corporate Bond Index in October. The yield curve evolved from negative slope to a flat shape as short-term rates decreased substantially. The bond repurchase offers by Greek banks led to substantial gains in the Financials Bond Index. Key bond issues and their monthly returns are also discussed. Upcoming events that may impact the Greek bond market are highlighted.
The document is a monthly report from Piraeus Bank Research on developments in the Greek bond market in April 2015. It provides analysis and data on:
- Fluctuations in the Greek government bond yield curve driven by uncertainty over debt negotiations and reforms.
- Performance of Piraeus Bank's bond indices, with the Government Bond Index increasing 3.71% YTD and 12.35% month-over-month, while the Corporate Bond Index lost 0.53% for the month.
- Estimates of Greece's interest rate curve showing a downward shift in short-term rates and mixed expectations for medium to long-term rates.
- Volatility in the 3-year and 10
- The document is a research report by Mediobanca Securities that recommends an "Outperform" rating for shares of Unicredit, an Italian bank, with a target price of €9.10 per share.
- The report cites Unicredit's restructuring efforts in Italy and upcoming restructuring in Germany and Austria as positioning it well to benefit from trends like ECB quantitative easing and Eurozone economic recovery.
- Normalization of loan loss provisions and net interest margin are expected to boost profits and return on equity by 6 percentage points according to the report's estimates.
Primary surplus vs the liquidity of the greek banking systemIlias Lekkos
In this short research piece we analyse the reasons why there exist an inverse relationship between Greece's primary surpluses and the liquidity of the Greek banking system
Greek officials together with IMF and EU ones are touring Europe investors to convince them to buy Greek long dated bonds: I remain unconvinced about the chance of success due to a continued depressed economic environment and the time frame required to modernize the Greek economy that goes well beyond the 3 years rescue plan.
This document provides a summary of Snam's quarterly newsletter. It discusses Snam's 2015-2018 strategic plan which will see €5.1 billion invested in Italy, including €1.3 billion in 2015. Over 60% of investments will go to transport infrastructure to support increasing gas flows toward European markets. International assets like TIGF and TAG are also seen as strategic. The 2014 financial results showed a 30.6% increase in net profit despite a 3% decline in EBIT. Snam will propose a dividend of €0.25 per share for 2015.
PorscheofNorthHoustonReceivesTop100DealershipsToWorkForAward_releaseTodd Blue
Porsche of North Houston, which is part of the indiGO Auto Group, received the Automotive News Best Dealerships to Work For 2015 award. Todd Blue, CEO of indiGO Auto Group, accepted the award on behalf of Porsche of North Houston. The award recognizes the top 100 dealerships in the US and Canada that excel at creating a quality workplace. This is the first time Porsche of North Houston participated in the survey since it opened in 2010. Blue said that indiGO Auto Group has built a culture that invites employees to participate in the company's success.
The document summarizes the European Open Source Market Place AppHub project. AppHub received EU Horizon 2020 funding to facilitate the dissemination of open source software assets. It provides an open interoperability framework including a directory to describe and classify assets, a factory to package and publish them, and a store for browsing, selecting, and deploying assets on cloud platforms. The goal is to help open source SMEs and collaborative projects reach the mainstream market.
This document discusses three gas laws: Boyle's law, Charles's law, and Avogadro's law. Boyle's law states that at a constant temperature, the pressure and volume of a gas are inversely proportional. Charles's law describes how gases expand when heated, with temperature and volume being directly related at constant pressure. Avogadro's law establishes that equal volumes of gases at the same temperature and pressure contain equal numbers of molecules.
Remind is a communication platform that allows teachers to connect instantly and safely with students and parents by text message, helping to increase parent engagement, student literacy, and other educational outcomes. It provides a simple, accessible way for teachers to send messages, files, and conduct two-way chat conversations without sharing phone numbers. The document provides information on how Remind works and its benefits for teachers in improving communication.
TripAdvisor is the world's largest travel website, with over 6,000 unique users looking at reviews every second. It has over 1.5 million listed businesses and 100 million reviews. The document discusses TripAdvisor traffic and interest in various African countries like Kenya, Uganda, and South Africa. It provides data on top international cities viewing content on Kenya and other destinations viewed by users in Kenya, the UK, and the US who also viewed Kenya. Nairobi and Mombasa are the top viewed cities in Kenya by international users.
The document outlines meal times at a restaurant or hotel, including breakfast from 7-9am, lunch from 12-1:30pm, and dinner from 5:30-7:30pm. On Sundays, there is a roast dinner from 2-5pm serving beef, potatoes, vegetables, Yorkshire pudding and gravy for the main meal along with strawberries, sponge and cream or custard for dessert. Afternoon tea is also available on Sundays from 3-5pm with sandwiches, scones and tea.
The document summarizes the health and safety procedures and personal protective equipment acquired for a project to build a replica Viking boat called a Faering. It describes the initial steps which included lofting frames from lines drawings onto plywood, carving the keel and stem from oak blocks, and fitting stations along the keel. Planks were steamed to shape and fit into the rabbet and scarfs before being sealed with Sikaflex, as a more modern alternative to the Viking method of using tar and wool.
The document discusses content marketing opportunities and strategies for a company. It begins with an agenda for a presentation on how content marketing fits within the organization and how to understand content marketing. It then covers the differences between content marketing and traditional marketing, analyzing competitors' content and audiences. The document proposes several ideas for content the company could create, and discusses the content marketing process. It addresses pain points clients may be experiencing and seeks input from engineers on their preferred types of content.
La Unión Europea ha propuesto un nuevo paquete de sanciones contra Rusia que incluye un embargo al petróleo ruso. El embargo se aplicaría gradualmente durante seis meses para el petróleo crudo y ocho meses para los productos refinados. Este paquete de sanciones requiere la aprobación unánime de los 27 estados miembros de la UE.
The document discusses warehouse automation technologies from Aberon BY LIGHT including pick-by-light and pick-cart systems. Pick-by-light uses microcomputers installed at picking locations to direct pickers to items and quantities needed for orders. Pick-cart uses a cart with order slots and microcomputers to simultaneously pick multiple orders in a single route. Both systems aim to increase picking productivity by 3x and reduce errors by 95% compared to conventional picking. The document provides details on how each system works and their benefits for automating warehouse order fulfillment.
Operation is the Core Hub of the organizationMaruf Aorno
Operation functions interconnected with other four major functions of the organization. It is the nucleus or hub or it centralized and managing financial/accounting, marketing, human resources and suppliers.
Greek markets have significantly underperformed benchmarks over the past 1.5 years due to the fragile economic environment and political risks in Greece. Greek equity indexes are down nearly 19% since capital controls were imposed in June 2015, though most non-financial stocks have recouped some losses. The report provides upside and downside risks to its valuation of the non-bank universe, including potential catalysts such as a stable pro-reform government, successful bank recapitalization, and debt relief measures. Top picks have international exposure, favorable cycles, or short-term catalysts like OPAP's planned video lottery terminals launch.
The Greek strategy report by Piraeus Securities. Top picks include MOH GA, FFGRP GA, BELA GA and HTO GA. The valuation of our universe implies a 20% upside potential (Jan22 prices).
A noteworthy upward trend was recorded by the Government Bond Index in May that reached a record high of 401 points. Similar levels have not been recorded again since the construction of the index. Furthermore, for the first time, the index recorded a weighted average yield of 7.1%, which is well below its level one month ago. The agreement for the completion on the Greek program evaluation and the three-point plan for debt relief, gave further impetus to the upturn of the index which had already started in mid-March.
The document provides an analysis of the Greek bond market from Piraeus Bank Research. It notes improvements in the Greek Government Bond Index and Corporate Bond Index in October. The yield curve evolved from negative slope to a flat shape as short-term rates decreased substantially. The bond repurchase offers by Greek banks led to substantial gains in the Financials Bond Index. Key bond issues and their monthly returns are also discussed. Upcoming events that may impact the Greek bond market are highlighted.
The document is a monthly report from Piraeus Bank Research on developments in the Greek bond market in April 2015. It provides analysis and data on:
- Fluctuations in the Greek government bond yield curve driven by uncertainty over debt negotiations and reforms.
- Performance of Piraeus Bank's bond indices, with the Government Bond Index increasing 3.71% YTD and 12.35% month-over-month, while the Corporate Bond Index lost 0.53% for the month.
- Estimates of Greece's interest rate curve showing a downward shift in short-term rates and mixed expectations for medium to long-term rates.
- Volatility in the 3-year and 10
- The document is a research report by Mediobanca Securities that recommends an "Outperform" rating for shares of Unicredit, an Italian bank, with a target price of €9.10 per share.
- The report cites Unicredit's restructuring efforts in Italy and upcoming restructuring in Germany and Austria as positioning it well to benefit from trends like ECB quantitative easing and Eurozone economic recovery.
- Normalization of loan loss provisions and net interest margin are expected to boost profits and return on equity by 6 percentage points according to the report's estimates.
Primary surplus vs the liquidity of the greek banking systemIlias Lekkos
In this short research piece we analyse the reasons why there exist an inverse relationship between Greece's primary surpluses and the liquidity of the Greek banking system
Greek officials together with IMF and EU ones are touring Europe investors to convince them to buy Greek long dated bonds: I remain unconvinced about the chance of success due to a continued depressed economic environment and the time frame required to modernize the Greek economy that goes well beyond the 3 years rescue plan.
This document provides a summary of Snam's quarterly newsletter. It discusses Snam's 2015-2018 strategic plan which will see €5.1 billion invested in Italy, including €1.3 billion in 2015. Over 60% of investments will go to transport infrastructure to support increasing gas flows toward European markets. International assets like TIGF and TAG are also seen as strategic. The 2014 financial results showed a 30.6% increase in net profit despite a 3% decline in EBIT. Snam will propose a dividend of €0.25 per share for 2015.
The document discusses Greece's budget assumptions and projections, noting that the baseline scenario is overly optimistic. It analyzes the execution of Greece's Stability and Growth Program, finding that progress relies too heavily on reducing public investment and that debt levels will continue rising. Two scenarios project Greece's additional debt and financing needs, finding default is likely by mid-2011 unless more aid is provided. The conclusion is that any rescue package will only delay default temporarily and Greece and its creditors should prepare for negotiated debt restructuring and haircuts of around 50%.
CDS spreads are way up, bond yield at 7%, savers withdrawing money from banks: the day of recognizing has arrived and Greece will not avoid a bailout by end April.
This quarterly report summarizes Colexon Energy AG's financial and operational results for Q3 2010. Key highlights include:
- 80% of project revenue came from international markets like Italy and the Czech Republic, in line with the company's strategy of expanding abroad.
- Several new solar projects were completed in Germany, Italy, and the Czech Republic.
- The company recognized a €63.4 million impairment loss related to goodwill from an acquisition in 2009.
- Revenue was €154 million and EBIT was €13.2 million, excluding the impairment loss.
- The company's share price fell but remained stable at €2.64, outperforming the broader solar index which declined 31.
The Greek government's 2011 budget significantly underperformed projections, with a 23% larger borrowing requirement than planned. Revenues were lower than expected and interest payments increased substantially compared to 2010. Greece remains insolvent with a large debt burden and high budget deficit, and discussions are ongoing around private creditors forgiving 70% of Greek debt. However, this would only address Greece's stock of debt and not underlying issues like weak competitiveness and economic growth, which are needed to truly solve the crisis. The bailout funds available may not be sufficient, and Greece will require deep austerity measures that could lead to major social unrest.
Portugal, greece and the euro crisis what the news areMarkets Beyond
Portugal is under increasing stress after the rejection of a third austerity plan by its Parliament.
Greece's budget deficit reduction is not starting well in 2011, and the latest figures smell manipulation (with the EU blessing)
Greece has historically had a high ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) compared to other European countries, with a ratio of 41% versus the EU average of 3%. While Greece's ratio has improved in recent years, it remains significantly higher than peers. Several factors have contributed to the reduction of NPLs in Greece, including sales of loan portfolios, collections, restructurings, and write-offs. Major Greek banks have targeted reducing NPLs by 37% by the end of 2019 through these various measures. A new government asset protection scheme is also expected to help banks further reduce NPLs by taking them off bank balance sheets.
European banks and asset management agencies have €531 billion in gross exposure to non-core real estate assets that need to be disposed of in the coming years. While total exposure has fallen by €53 billion from last year's levels, significant impaired assets remain. Italy has seen its exposure increase by €30 billion over the past year. Irish and UK banks along with asset management agencies remain the most active sellers, having sold over €16.6 billion in loans and properties in 2015. The third quarter of 2015 was the busiest of the year with €21 billion in loan and property sales.
European CRE Loan & REO Sales Market Q3 2015Sion Owen
European banks and asset management agencies have a combined gross exposure of approximately €531 billion to non-core real estate assets that need to be worked out or sold in the coming years. While total exposure has decreased by €53 billion from last year's analysis, a significant amount remains to be dealt with, providing opportunities for investors especially in Southern and Eastern Europe. In the first three quarters of 2015, €44.6 billion of commercial real estate loans and real estate owned assets have been sold in Europe, with the third quarter seeing the highest volume of transactions so far this year at €21 billion. Major markets like the UK, Ireland, Spain and Germany accounted for a smaller portion of total sales compared to last year, as
In what follows we estimate a number of macroeconomic scenarios starting from the most pessimistic one where the economy feels the full effect of the austerity measures without any mitigating actions. In that scenario the economy will contract by -2.8%. We believe that the prospect of such an adverse outcome should motivate all policy makers to spring into action.
We also estimate a scenario under which Greek households, in an attempt to cushion the impact of austerity on their living standards, reduce their savings even further, limiting somewhat the size of economic contraction to -2.5%.
Yet, the only factor with true recession - mitigating potency is the clearance of Government Arrears which if distributed timely could help limit the level of GDP recession to -1.1%.
C.Y Actuaries Conference 2015: The Cyprus Investment and Asset Management Con...Stephan Cronje
The document provides an overview and analysis of the global economic outlook, the Greek crisis, and the Cypriot economy.
Some key points:
- Global growth is expected to accelerate in 2015 and 2016, led by the US, while inflation is expected to remain subdued.
- The euro area recovery is gaining momentum but structural problems remain like high unemployment.
- Greece has made progress reducing deficits but at high socioeconomic costs, and short-term political and financing risks remain.
- Cyprus's stabilization program is on track with better than expected macroeconomic outcomes, but high NPLs and private sector deleveraging remain challenges.
- Long-term growth strategies for Greece and Cyprus should
Since the publication in July of stress test for banks in Europe, everything went quiet on the PIGS debt crisis with no much news during the summer. Things however are boiling again and Greek will come back to the forefront of medias sooner rather than later.
Similar to Greek Equity Market update October 2015 (20)
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Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
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3. 3
Key Investment Considerations
We reiterate our Top Pick list, which includes OPAP and Motor Oil. These two stocks have outperformed the market since our last strategy
report of early-September. MOH enjoys a favorable benchmark margin environment, as well as favorable FX dynamics. MOH’s possible
inflow from the revision of the MSCI index could also boost further the stock. OPAP should witness the successful launch of VLTs sometime
in 2016, which will further diversify OPAP’s gaming portfolio.
Apart from Motor Oil and OPAP, we have Outperform ratings on Aegean Airlines, Frigoglass, FFGROUP, Jumbo, Fourlis and Athex.
We trim our target price on Jumbo to EUR 9.80 from EUR 10.0 and reiterate Outperform rating.
We downgrade CCHBC to Underperform from Neutral on valuation grounds. We think current price levels imply stretched valuation
metrics. Recent sugar price spikes should inflate the cost base in the mid term, while we are cautious on the recovery of EE markets and
particularly Russia. We would therefore sell the stock at current price levels.
The valuation of our non-banks universe implies an upside potential of 5.9% from 14.5% previously. We think that the market will need
the contribution of the banking sector in order to move meaningfully higher.
Upside risks to our valuation include a) further decline of GGB rates as a result of positive programme review (within November), political
stability and debt relief measures; b) better than currently anticipated economy dynamics with key catalyst being the privatization programme
(i.e. regional airports, ports, Hellinikon and energy market) and efficient absorption of EU funds; and c) successful conclusion of banks’ recap
accompanied by the formulation of an effective legal framework for the management of NPLs.
In the banking space, the pressure continued unabated in the last month, putting pressure in the wider market. The banking index plunged
by 22.1% from September 10, when we released our latest strategy report, until October 14. In terms of newsflow, the management teams
of the four systemic banks met with ECB/SSM in Frankfurt on October 14-15 in order to receive preliminary and partial data on the
comprehensive assessment exercise. The regulatory framework that will detail the recap terms is expected to be submitted to Parliament by
October 20. The final recap amount should have been formulated by October 20 and the official announcement is expected on October 31-
November 1. In the context of the recapitalization project, Piraeus Bank announced LME on its junior and senior debt, while other banks are
expected to follow. The capital increases should start in November and be concluded prior to end-2015.
4. 4
4Q 2015 milestones that could affect Greek assets
31 Oct./1 Nov.:AQR and
Stresstestresultsare
expectedtobe officially
released
Mid-October:Expected
start of 1st Reviewof
3rd bailoutprogramme
9 November:Eurogroup
23 November:Eurogroup
20 October:regulatoryframeworkof
bank'srecaps to be submittedto
Parliament
13 November:Fitch
sovereignrating
assessment 20 November:Moody's
sovereignratingassessment
8 December:
Eurogroup
23 December:
Eurogroup
End-December:
conclusionofbankrecaps
4Q 2015 timetable of events
15 November:Deadline
for the release of
additional EUR15bn
recap funds
November-December:
Recapitalization
processunderway
Greek Sovereign/Corporate Events | 4Q 2015
29 October Railway bond due EUR 174mn
31 October Banks: Deadline for the release of 1H 2015 results
1-30 November Q3 reporting season
1 November PPC (PPC GA)bond coupon payment
6 November T-Bills redemption; EUR 1.4bn
10 November Hellenic Petroleum (ELPE GA) bond coupon payment
13 November T-Bills redemption; EUR 1.4bn
15 November Frigoglass (FRIGO GA), Intralot (INLOT GA) &
Motor Oil (MOH GA)bond coupon payments
16 November Coca Cola HBC (CCH LN) bond coupon payment
7 December IMF loan due EUR 279mn
11 December T-Bills redemption; EUR 2.0bn
16 December IMF loan due EUR 509mn
18 December T-Bills redemption; EUR 1.6bn
21 December IMF loan due EUR 313mn
5. 5
ATHEX moved into positive territory
since our last strategy report on the
back of strong performance by non
financials, which have massively
outperformed banks. On a y-t-d basis
the Greek equity market remains an
underperformer compared to its
European peers.
ATHEX turns positive Month-on-Month
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Greek large caps vs Greek banks 2015 y-t-d (indexed)
Greek Large caps (ex-banks) Greek Banks
ATHEX reopens
Capital controls
ATHEX ceases trading
Elections
4.6% 4.7%
1.9% 1.7%
-1.2%
0.8%
2.2%
4.6%
-3.0%-5.00%
-3.00%
-1.00%
1.00%
3.00%
5.00%
7.00%
9.00%
11.00%
13.00%
15.00%
Greece
ATHEX
Composite
MSCI EM
(Emerging
Markets)
France
CAC 40
FTSE MIB Germany
DAX (TR)
STOXX
Europe
600
Spain IBEX
35
Portugal
PSI 20
Ireland
ISEQ
General
ATHEX vs peers October/September 2015
-18.16%
-6.02%
7.87%
14.87%
1.12%
3.87%
-2.35%
10.18%
18.84%
-25.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-10.00%
-5.00%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Greece
ATHEX
Composite
MSCI EM
(Emerging
Markets)
France
CAC 40
FTSE MIB Germany
DAX (TR)
STOXX
Europe
600
Spain IBEX
35
Portugal
PSI 20
Ireland
ISEQ
General
ATHEX vs peers y-t-d
6. 6
…still though lagging GGBs
Greek sovereign debt has outperformed the equity market since the restart of the
ATHEX in early August. 10Y GGB currently trades at 7.8%, a level last printed in December
last year, when Greek equities were trading 20-52% higher. Note that GGBs were trading at
a YTM of 11.7% in early August and slightly above 8% at the time of the elections. The
Greek equity market on the other hand is trading close to 3Y lows.
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
10.00
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
550
570
590
610
630
650
670
690
710
730
ATHEX GI vs 10Y GGB Yield since the restart of the
Greek Equity Market
ATHEX GI - Left axis 10Y GGB yield - Right axis
Elections
7. 7
Breaking the link between debt and equity
It is the first time in the last 5 years
that a compression in yields is not
combined with a rise in the Greek
equity market. The reason is the
plunge in banking valuation in the
wake of the capital controls and the
forthcoming recapitalizations.
GGB & ATHEX swings | start 2008-now
time length (months)
GGB yield
change ATHEX GI performance
ATHEX ex-banks performace -
average per month
spot P/E total
market ex banks
4 26.7% -14.8% -17.3% 13.2
4 -13.0% -29.4% -37.1% 9.8
3 34.1% -37.0% -9.2% 6.9
12 -9.8% 32.1% 9.5% 9.8
26 490.0% -65.9% -53.2% 7.2
30 -83.3% 60.0% 72.7% 20.7
8 93.5% -33.3% -22.1% 11.8
2 -28.7% -14.8% -0.4% 14.7
8. 8
Top down, the Greek market does not seem to be attractive
5 10 15 20 25 30
US
Japan
Developed Markets
Australia
Asia ex Japan
Europe ex UK
EM
UK
Emerging Europe
Greece
Schiller P/E: Greek market vs peers*
01020304050
US
Japan
Developed Markets
Australia
Asia ex Japan
Europe ex UK
EM
UK
CEEMEA
Greece
Median Historical Schiller P/E: Greek market vs peers*
*Greek Schiller P/E does not include financials
9. 9
Our non financial universe has
derated substantially in 2015
and especially over the
summer. Right now 12M fwd
P/E stands c11% below the
end-2014 print, which means
that the market has already
incorporated some EPS
downgrades.
Much better picture for our non-financials universe #1
0
5
10
15
20
25
1/31/2000
7/31/2000
1/31/2001
7/31/2001
1/31/2002
7/31/2002
1/31/2003
7/31/2003
1/30/2004
7/30/2004
1/31/2005
7/29/2005
1/31/2006
7/31/2006
1/31/2007
7/31/2007
1/31/2008
7/31/2008
1/30/2009
7/31/2009
1/29/2010
7/30/2010
1/31/2011
7/29/2011
1/31/2012
7/31/2012
1/31/2013
7/31/2013
1/31/2014
7/31/2014
1/30/2015
7/31/2015
12m Fwd P/E- PS non financials universe
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2/29/2000
8/31/2000
2/28/2001
8/31/2001
2/28/2002
8/30/2002
2/28/2003
8/29/2003
2/27/2004
8/31/2004
2/28/2005
8/31/2005
2/28/2006
8/31/2006
2/28/2007
8/31/2007
2/29/2008
8/29/2008
2/27/2009
8/31/2009
2/26/2010
8/31/2010
2/28/2011
8/31/2011
2/29/2012
8/31/2012
2/28/2013
8/30/2013
2/28/2014
8/29/2014
2/27/2015
8/31/2015
12M Fwd EV/EBITDA-PS non financials universe
10. 10
Both Schiller P/E and Earnings
Yield/Bond Yield for our non-
banks Universe present a much
better picture compared to the
broader Greek market. Both have
de-rated since Q3 last year until
this summer, while they are now
reverting to their mean.
Much better picture for our non-financials universe #2
* Piraeus Bank’s proprietary corporate bond index includes 15 issues from CCHBC, OTE, Hellenic Petroleum, Intralot, Frigoglass, PPC, Titan, Motor Oil.
11. 11
Our Non-Banks Universe has outperformed MoM
Our two top picks, Motor Oil and Opap
are up 14.3% and 15% respectively since
our last strategy report. FFGROUP is the
outlier here, having a negative
performance over the same period due to
concerns about the Chinese economic
dynamics.
12. 12
Piraeus Securities Universe valuation (non-financials)
current price (COB
15-Oct-2015) Market cap. PT
number of
shares
Target Market
cap.
Total
Expected
return
Aegean 7.25 517.8 7.80 71.4 557.1 13.2%
ATHEX 5.18 338.6 5.70 65.4 372.6 18.7%
Autohellas 10.55 128.3 10.00 12.2 121.6 1.4%
CCHBC 20.70 7,613.5 17.00 367.8 6,252.6 -16.0%
Frigoglass 2.23 112.8 3.00 50.6 151.8 34.5%
Fourlis 2.80 142.8 4.30 51.0 219.3 53.6%
FFGROUP 18.02 1,206.4 28.70 66.9 1,921.4 60.1%
Jumbo 8.27 1,125.2 9.80 136.1 1,333.4 21.0%
Motor Oil 10.30 1,141.1 12.00 110.8 1,329.4 25.7%
OTE 8.85 4,337.8 9.00 490.2 4,411.4 2.6%
OPAP 8.43 2,689.2 10.80 319.0 3,445.2 38.2%
PPC 5.17 1,199.4 4.00 232.0 928.0 -18.2%
Total (including dividend) 20,552.8 21,758.2 5.9%
Source: Piraeus Securities, Greek Equity Research
The total upside of our universe has been trimmed to 5.9%. We highlight two stocks that stand well above our current target prices.
We think CCHBC (CCH LN) trades at stretched valuation metrics. Current price levels are not supported by fundamentals in our view,
while we do not see positive developments in key markets like Russia or Italy that warrant a significant pick up in profitability.
Moreover, the outlook for sugar is also negative. In this context we downgrade CCHBC to Underperform from Neutral.
On the other hand, PPC (PPC GA) is a binary investment case in our view. We think that should the measures stipulated by the MoU
regarding the liberalization of the electricity market are implemented, PPC will be able to crystalize some of its hidden value. However
given there are many uncertainties we prefer to remain on the sidelines for the time being.
Our Non-Banks Universe offers an upside of 5.9%
13. 13
Universe | PT and recommendation changes
We made some fine-tuning in our estimates in
Jumbo (BELA GA) due to slightly worse outlook
in the Greek operations. We therefore trimmed
out valuation on the stock to EUR 9.80 from
EUR 10.0 previously. We remain Buyers on the
stock.
From our Outperform list, we would also
highlight Frigoglass (FRIGO GA) as our best bet
to beat the market and our universe in the
following weeks. The group is about to complete
the sale of the glass business in Q4 and receive
USD 200mn. This is of course an opportunistic
call and dependent on the positive outcome of
the sale, hence we refrain from giving the stock a
top pick status.
On Folli Follie (FFGRP GA) and despite the
weakness y-t-d due to the Chinese softness, we
could see a strong rebound in the case of
positive newsflow on Chinese macros.
Piraeus Securities | Universe; changes in ratings and PTs
Target Price
Old Target
Price Rating
Previous
Rating
Aegean 7.80 7.80 Outperform Outperform
Autohellas 10.00 10.00 Neutral Neutral
Coca Cola HLB AG 17.00 17.00 Underperform Neutral
Folli Follie Group 28.70 28.70 Outperform Outperform
Fourlis 4.30 4.30 Outperform Outperform
Frigoglass 3.00 3.00 Outperform Outperform
Hellenic Exchanges 5.70 5.70 Outperform Outperform
Jumbo 9.80 10.00 Outperform Outperform
Motor Oil* 12.00 12.00 Outperform Outperform
OPAP* 10.80 10.80 Outperform Outperform
OTE 9.00 9.00 Neutral Neutral
PPC 4.00 4.00 Neutral Neutral
Metka U/R U/R U/R U/R
NBG U/R U/R U/R U/R
Alpha Bank U/R U/R U/R U/R
Eurobank U/R U/R U/R U/R
Titan U/R U/R U/R U/R
Sarantis U/R U/R U/R U/R
* top picks
14. 14
We lie below 2015 and 2016 consensus
We stand 6.8% and 1.9% below 2015
and 2016 consensus respectively
although we see downside risks in
2016 estimates.
18. 18
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
Piraeus Securities S.A. is the brokerage division of Piraeus Bank (‘The Firm’), which does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of
this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Piraeus Securities S.A. certifies that the current organizational and administrative structure is proof of conflicts of interest and dissemination of any kind of information between the departments and also certifies that it does not relate to any kind of interest or conflict of interest
with a) any other legal entity or person that might participate in the preparation of this research report and b) with any other legal entity or person that might not participate in the preparation of this research report but had access to the research report before its publication.
Piraeus Securities seeks to update covered companies on a quarterly basis or else on any material upcoming events.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION: The analyst identified in this report certifies that his/her views about the company/ies and securities analysed in this report a) accurately reflect his/her personal views and b) do not directly or indirectly relate to any kind of compensation in exchange for
specific recommendations or views.
Coverage Universe
Piraeus Securities Research Stock
Ratings
Weighted on
Mcap
Un-weighted Rating Definitions
Investment Banking Activities within
12-month period
Outperform : 34.2% 42.1%
Total return (*) expected to be greater than 10% compared to the
market’s return (**) over a 12-month period
-
Neutral: 54.6% 15.8%
Total return (*) expected to be between -10%/+10% compared to the
market’s return (**) over a 12-month period
-
Underperform: 0.0% 5.3%
Total return (*) expected to be below -10% compared to the market’s
return (**)over a 12-month period
-
Restricted: 0.4% 5.3%
In certain circumstances that Piraeus Securities S.A. policy or applicable
law / regulations preclude certain types of communication and
investment recommendations
-
Under Review: 10.9% 31.6% Rating/TP may be subject to future revision -
(*) Total return = Price appreciation + Dividend
(**) Market return = Risk free rate + 5% (an approximation of equity risk premium)
Investment ratings are determined by the ranges described above at the time of initiation of coverage, a change in rating, or a change in target price. At other times, the expected total returns may fall outside of these ranges because of
price movement and/or volatility. Such interim deviations from specified ranges will be permitted but will become subject to review by Research Management.
CAUTION - DISCLAIMER
This document has been issued by Piraeus Securities S.A. (“The Firm”), a member of the Athens Exchange supervised by the Hellenic Capital Market Committee.
Piraeus Securities has based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable, but it has not independently verified all the information presented in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or otherwise implied,
is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained in this document, or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Expressions of opinion herein are those of the Research Department only, reflect our judgment
at this date and are subject to change without notice.
This document does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription, or solicitation to buy or subscribe to any securities, nor shall it or any part of it form the basis of, in part or in whole, any contract or commitment whatsoever.
This document was produced by the Research Department of Piraeus Securities and is for distribution only to persons who (i) have professional experience in matters relating to investments or (ii) are persons falling within Article 49(2) (a) to (d) of the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 or to whom it may otherwise lawfully be passed on (all such persons being referred to as “relevant persons”). This report is directed only to relevant persons and must not be acted on or relied on by
persons who are no relevant persons. Any investment or investment activity to which this report relates is available to relevant persons and will be engaged in only with relevant persons. This notice will not affect your rights under the Financial Services and Markets
Act 2000 or the regulatory system. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives or needs. This report is addressed to professional investors only and is being supplied to you solely for your information,
and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on to any other person, or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose without prior written permission of Piraeus Securities S.A. and Piraeus Securities S.A. accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third
parties in this respect.
Additional note to our U.S. readers: This document may be distributed in the United States solely to “major US institutional investors” as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Each person that receives a copy, by acceptance thereof,
represents and agrees that he/she will not distribute or otherwise make available this document to any other person.
The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons who come into possession of this document should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions.
RESEARCH SALES/ TRADING
Natasha Roumantzi
George Doukas
Iakovos Kourtesis
nroumantzi@piraeus-sec.gr
gdoukas@piraeus-sec.gr
kourtesis@piraeus-sec.gr
+30 210 3354065
+30 210 3354093
+30 210 3354083
Constantinos Xenos
Dimitris Dardanis
Yorgi Papazisis
Alexandros Malamas
xenosc@piraeus-sec.gr
dardanisdi@piraeus-sec.gr
PapazisisG@piraeus-sec.gr
malamasa@piraeus-sec.gr
+30 210 3354087
+30 210 3354043
+30 210 3354063
+30 210 3354041