June 2018 Africa Market Update

2JUNE 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
A Financial Advisory
Company
JUNE 2018 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA www.stratlinkglobal.com
NIGERIA
ETHIOPIA 5
8
13
22
RWANDA 26
KENYA
UGANDA
TANZANIA 17
Table of Contents
ETHIOPIA
• New Premier assumes office amidst subtle macroeconomic pressures
• Foreign currency crunch blights business environment
NIGERIA
• Central bank tightens liquidity as Naira slides
• Q1 2018 growth numbers signal prevailing fragile rebound in the economy
KENYA
• Controversial new Cybercrime Bill temporarily halted
• Rejection of EAC-China Trade Deal
• New Income Tax Bill takes progressive approach
At a Glance
TANZANIA
• Extensive budget cuts and delayed donor funding undermine budget
implementation and offer headwinds to development
• Monetary policy feeding through as lending rates begin to ease
UGANDA
• EAC Monetary Union convergence criteria creates challenges
• Insurance sector has room to grow
• Budget deficit to expand in medium term
RWANDA
• New Income Tax Law changes to promote development of local capital
markets as well as support revenue mobilsation drive
• President Kagame travels to Ethiopia, making his the first Presidential visit
since the swearing in of the new Prime Minister
http://mutuamatheka.co.ke/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/001_NAIROBI_WEBREADY_MUTUA-MATHEKA-10.jpg
Nairobi, Kenya
© Mutua Matheka
Cover image:

Activity by Sectors
AFRICA DEALS LANDSCAPE
January - May 2018
Source: PitchBook, StratLink Africa
Snapshot of Deals
• Lidya (Nigeria): The company raised USD 6.9 million of Series A venture funding in a deal led by Omidyar Network on May 23rd, 2018
• Capital Fisheries (Zambia): The company received USD 6.4 million of development capital from Agri-Vie on May 21st, 2018
• Lamu Generation Plant (Kenya): Amu Power Company sold its 1,050 MW Lamu generation plant to General Electric for USD 394.0 million on May
17th, 2018
12.1% 9.1% 6.5% 6.4%
5.2% 4.8% 4.2% 4.1%
3.9% 3.8% 39.9%
Health devices & supplies Insurance Metals, minerals & mining Capital Markets & Institutions
Communications & Networking Exploration, production & reﬁning Commercial services Energy services
Apparel & accessories Commercial products Others
53.3%
53.3%
37.2%
37.2%
3.9%
3.9%
3.3%
3.3%
0.9%
0.9%
1.4%
1.4%
Activity by Deal Type
Merger/Acquisition Secondary Transaction - Private IPO PIPE Later stage VC Others

4,236.9 3,960.9 3,238.9
2,708.8 2,694.1 651.3 634.2
611.7 472.4 404.4 305.9
Meat and poultry sales Milk Cooking oil and fat Fresh and preserved fruit
Bread Rice Margarine and spreads
Sauces and condiments Eggs Carbonated drinks Yoghurt
14.2%
44.7%
5.6%
20.1%
54.2%
1.1%
8.1%
54.7%
46.4%
82.4%
64.2%
41.6%
67.1%
73.3%
20.8%
2.6%
4.6%
10.9%
1.8%
19.4%
8.2%
10.3%
6.3%
7.4%
4.8%
2.4%
12.4%
10.4%
Meat & poultry
Bread
Fresh & preserved fruit
Cooking oil & fat
Margarine & spreads
Rice
Eggs
Ethiopia Kenya Tanzania Uganda
8,670.1
Sales of Food and Beverage Products in East Africa (USD Mln) - 2016
Sales of Food and Beverage Products in East Africa by Country Share
: EAST AFRICA FAST MOVING CONSUMER GOODS
– FOOD & BEVERAGE SPACE
SECTOR LE
Source: Business Monitor International, StratLink

NEW PREMIER ASSUMES OFFICE AMIDST MACROECONOMOMIC PRESSURES
ETHIOPIA MARKET UPDATE

Short-term Respite, Long-term Uncertainty
The ruling Ethiopia People’s Revolutionary
Democratic Front (EPRDF) elected a new Prime
Minister on March 28th, 2018. Hailing from
the Oromo community, the election of the new
Premierisaclearindicationthatthepartyiscoming
to terms with the risks engendered by the wave
of unrelenting anti-government protests whose
epicenter has been the Oromia region. Whereas
this election is a positive for the near-term political
risk environment, more fundamental reform
ought to be adopted with a view to addressing
the fragilities the country confronts. The country
continues to grapple with a heavily constrained
democratic space, a fact that is widely perceived
to have been a key trigger of the recent protests
and remains a potential fault line in the long-term
horizon.
The new Premier is reported to have indicated
plans to spearhead adoption of term limits for
the office of the Prime Minister. Whilst this is
welcome, we believe the more important issue to
address in the face of the ongoing transition will
be the future of the Anti-Terrorism Proclamation
(2009).
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
Source: Central Statistical Agency Ethiopia, StratLink Africa
Foreign Currency Crunch Dominates
The business environment remains broadly
favorable despite the biting shortage of foreign
currency. Reports suggest some multinationals
have been compelled to reconsider operations in
the country as a result of the prevailing situation.
This challenge is bound to prevail through the
medium-term as the price of coffee tanks further
in the global market thus subduing proceeds from
the country’s main export (17.0% of earnings).
This is a significant risk especially for players in
the manufacturing sector who rely on imported
inputs and form a key pillar of the Growth and
Transformation Plan II (2015 – 2020).
Persistence of this crunch in the medium to long-
term could see the central bank consider a second
devaluation in a bid to ease the pressure borne by
businesses. A similar scenario played out in Nigeria
between June 2016 and February 2017 as the
central bank sought to address severe shortage of
foreign currency following the plunge in the price
of oil in the global market.
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
International Price of Coffee (US Cents/lb)
Source: International Coffee Organization, StratLink Africa
GDP: USD 61.5 Bln | Population: 101.9 Mln
ETHIOPIA
Ethiopia Population
Oromia Amhara
SNNP Somali
Tigray Aﬀar
Benishangul-Gumuz Dire Dawa
Others
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
135.0
140.0
145.0
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18

Premier Inherits Balance of Opportunities and
Risks
EPRDF’s dominance and the national economic
blueprint, Grand Transformation Plan II (2015
– 2020), staves off the risk of disruption in the
country’s policy outlook even in the face of the
present transition. This notwithstanding, we view
the following as key concerns that confront the
economy:
• High Current Account Deficit
The country has a high current account deficit
standing at 10.0%, compared to an East African
average of 7.5%, and this is bound to create an
unstable macroeconomic environment. This is a
likely reflection of the country’s heavy importation
of capital goods informed by the economic
blueprint which places significant focus on
infrastructural development. In view of this, the
Birr is bound to remain under pressure against
major currencies even as commodities experience
a general rebound in prices.
• Runaway Inflation
At a time when most peer economies in sub-
Saharan Africa are experiencing subdued inflation,
Ethiopia’s has soared. Available data shows that
this has been driven mainly by the food index with
a likely pointer at supply side constraints following
Source: International Monetary Fund, StratLink Africa
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Low Fiscal Deficit Offers Respite
These risks notwithstanding, the economy has
a tailwind in the relatively low fiscal deficit at
4.1% of GDP in 2017. It will be important that the
administration maintains a prudent fiscal stance
with a view to keeping the economy from the
pressures of a high twin deficit (current account
and fiscal balance). One key risk we foresee is the
less generous stance, with regard to foreign aid,
adopted by the Donald Trump administration.
Ethiopia has been one of the largest beneficiaries
of USA aid in Africa having received USD 800.6 Mln
in 2017.
adverse weather conditions in 2017. It is also
possible that currency pressures, following the
devaluation, have fed into prices.
Headline Inflation
Fiscal Balance as a Percentage of GDP
Ethiopia Birr to USD Exchange
ETHIOPIA
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Birr was devalued in
October 2017 in a bid to
boost exports
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
-10.0%
-9.0%
-8.0%
-7.0%
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Ethiopia Kenya

NIGERIA MARKET UPDATE
CENTRAL BANK TIGHTENS LIQUIDITY AS NAIRA SLIDES

Budget Passage Staves Off Risk
With the 2018 budget finally passed by the Senate,
the country has staved off the risk of a potential
slowdown in government operations due to
delayed disbursement of funds. Sectors such as
health, education and agriculture were particularly
vulnerable to this. Moving forward, focus is now
shifting to the Osun State Gubernatorial election
set to take place in September 2018. The poll is
expected to set the stage for the coming general
election slated for February 2019. It will essentially
give an indicator of the institutional preparedness
of the country to handle the general election.
Youth Constituency to Shape Election Agenda
The youth constituency (eligible voters in the
20 – 34 years age bracket) commands 49.0% of
the population eligible for voting and is poised
to shape the agenda in the months ahead
with unemployment as a key point of interest.
Unemployment at 18.8% is likely to present the
opposition with political capital with which to
table a case against the Buhari administration.
Whilst the economy is rebounding from recession,
concern that this is not reflecting in the creation
of income generating opportunities for the public
is widespread.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
NIGERIA
Unemployment Rate
Cautious Optimism Despite Q1 2018 Growth
Numbers
We maintain a cautious stance over the business
environment with Q1 2018 growth data showing
that a number of sectors slumped back into
contraction. Construction, real estate and trade
registered -1.5%, -9.4% and -2.6%, respectively,
in Q1 2018. This trend is the likely result of two
factors:
• Delay in passage of the 2018 budget which
is bound to have constricted expenditure
by the government especially in the capital
expenditure intensive construction sector
• Muted growth of credit to the private sector is
likely to have impacted consumption amongst
households and businesses thus inflicting a
drag on the wholesale and retail segment
Note: Both the delay in passage of the 2018 budget
and muted growth in credit have been explored
further in the Economic Outlook.
On the whole, the business environment is
navigating a path of fragile growth which is bound
to keep investors cautious in the medium-term.
This is in line with our January 2018 prognosis.
BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT
Source: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa
Q1 2018 GDP Growth
Eligible Voters by Age Bracket
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, StratLink Africa
49.0%
36.2%
14.8%
20 - 34 years 35 - 54 years > 55 years
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Financialservices
Manufacturing
Agriculture
ConstrucƟon
Wholesaleand
retail
RealEstate

Growth in Public and Private Sector Credit
NIGERIA
Senate Passes 2018 Budget
The Senate finally passed the USD 23.5 billion
budget buoying confidence that the fiscal side
of the economy is now well positioned to offer
countervailing force to the headwinds that have
kept us cautious over prospects on the monetary
side. We maintain the view the twin occurrence of
contracting credit to the public sector and muted
growth of credit to the private sector signals tight
fist clenching by commercial banks, a source of
concern with regard to the economy’s rebound.
Greenback injection signals lurking foreign
exchange pressures
Whereas the recent downtrend in inflation has
triggered widespread expectation of a dovish
signal from the Central Bank, the recent (in the
week ending Friday 18th May, 2018) injection of
USD 293.0 Mln¹ into the interbank market suggests
that foreign exchange concerns still cloud such
prospects. The Naira lost ground to the greenback
in the month under review touching a low of 361.4
units. Meanwhile, the Central Bank held its third
meeting in 2018 during which the benchmark rate,
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Naira to USD Day-on-Day Change
Naira to USD
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria, StratLink Africa
Cash Reserve Ratio and Liquidity were all retained.
As indicated in our Q1 2018 review, the earliest
we are likely to witness a change in the monetary
stance is in Q3 2018 pegged on the expectation
that inflation will have inched closer to the single
digit horizon (we expect headline inflation to close
July 2018 in the 9.5%- 10.5% band). It is important
to observe that the Naira exhibited relative stability
following the injection.
Naira’s depreciation YTD at
May 19th, 2018
0.4%
1
Reuters News Agency
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Private Sector Public Sector
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18
358.5
359.0
359.5
360.0
360.5
361.0
361.5
362.0

Inflation
Sovereign Yield Curve
Liquidity Conditions Tighten
Despite further decline in headline inflation the
yield curve was on a general uptick between April
and May 2018 with a particular surge on the short-
term end. We view this a pointer to tightened
liquidity conditions as the Central Bank looked to
cushion the Naira from the pressures witnessed
in May 2018. Data from the Central Bank shows
that the interbank² averaged 23.8% in May 2018,
the highest monthly average reported in 2018,
compared to 2.9% in the preceding month.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
NIGERIA
Interbank Rate
T-Bill Offered vs Subscription (USD)
Prospect of Return to Positive Returns Attracting
Appetite
Investor appetite was particularly high for the
364 Day paper which registered subscriptions 3.5
times as large as the amount offered. Appetite
is bound to rise further as inflation continues to
trend downwards and the short-term end of the
market offers investors positive returns.
2
OBB Rate
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Jan-14
Jun-14
Nov-14
Apr-15
Sep-15
Feb-16
Jul-16
Dec-16
May-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
Headline InﬂaƟon Non-food Index
Food Index
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
3M 6M 1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 15Y 20Y
Apr-18-2018 May-18-2018
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
91 Day 182 Day 364 Day
Million
Oﬀered SubscripƟons

Nigeria Stock Exchange 30 Index
30 Index Tanks Further
In line with developments in a number of emerging
markets, the Nigeria Stock Exchange came under
pressure in the period under review with the
30 Index tanking further. With foreign portfolio
investor activity having surged to command 70.2%
of aggregate market activity in April 2018, foreign
investors are profit taking following the rally that
was witnessed for the better part of 2017 and the
start of 2018. Foreign investor outflow stood at
USD 161.4 million in April 2018, 22.2% lower than
the amount reported in January 2018.
EQUITY MARKET UPDATE
Year-on-year gain of the 30
Index as at May 19th, 2018
Year-to-date gain of the 30
Index as at May 19th, 2018
42.6%
5.2%
Nigeria Stock Exchange 30 Index
(April 2018 - May 2018)
Foreign Investor Activity (USD)
Source: Nigeria Stock Exchange, StratLink Africa
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
4,500.0
1,000.0
1,200.0
1,400.0
1,600.0
1,800.0
2,000.0
2,200.0
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Millions
Volume - RHS 30 Index
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
1,810.0
1,820.0
1,830.0
1,840.0
1,850.0
1,860.0
1,870.0
1,880.0
18-Apr-18
25-Apr-18
02-May-18
09-May-18
16-May-18
Millions
Volume - RHS 30 Index
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
Jan-15
May-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
May-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
May-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Millions
Inﬂow Ouƞlow
NIGERIA

NEW INCOME TAX BILL HOPES TO INCREASE REVENUE
KENYA MARKET UPDATE

POLITICAL OUTLOOK
KENYA
EAC-China Trade Deal seen as Unfavorable
Kenya’s Trade Principal Secretary, Chris Kiptoo, has
declined to be party to a Free Trade Agreement
(FTA) between the East African Community (EAC)
and China that would see the latter gain access to
the EAC’s markets under more favorable terms.
The decision was partly driven by the fact that
trade between the two nations has been heavily
skewed in China’s favor. Kenya’s net imports from
China were USD 3.7 billion in 2017, more than
double the same figure for 2013.
China is the single largest source of imports into
Kenya, with its importance having grown rapidly
over time from making up 12.9% of all imports
in 2013 to 22.6% of all imports four years later.
Kenya will want to avoid any policies that threaten
local manufacturing, especially considering the
President’s Big Four agenda, thus the support
for the move to restrict the importation of cheap
goods from China.
Net Imports (Imports - Exports) from China, USD mn
Imports from China as % of Total Imports
Source: KNBS; Note: 2017* denotes provisional figures
Source: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)
Contentious Cybercrime Law Temporarily Halted
The Bloggers Association of Kenya breathed a sigh
of relief as the High Court ruled in their favor on
a lawsuit over the Computer Misuse and Cyber
Crimes Act, 2018. The Bill was assented into law
by President Uhuru Kenyatta earlier in May before
having sections of it temporarily suspended by the
High Court as a result of the lawsuit.
The suer argued that the Bill threatens freedom
of expression as well as the right to privacy. The
new set of laws would essentially make anyone
spreading false information susceptible to a fine
not exceeding USD 49,343.7 (KES 5 million) and/or
a jail term of up to ten years, with a key issue lying
in how one would objectively and consistently
identify false information. Those opposing the Bill
argue that the vagueness of the law would lead to
its abuse and allow for freedom of speech to be
stifled.
Wider Concerns
The media has, on a number of occasions, in the
recent past had their right to freely disseminate
information obstructed. Earlier in the year, four
TV stations were shut down for going against the
President’s orders to not show a live broadcast of
the mock inauguration of Raila Odinga. In March,
eight columnists resigned from the Nation Media
Group citing infringement of media freedom.
This track record has seen Kenya’s ranking in the
World Press Freedom Index deteriorate from 95th
in 2017 to 96th in 2018. Freedom of information is
a key pillar in any democratic society, it is required
by the populace to make informed decisions about
their leadership and is an essential tool in holding
the government accountable. The eventual
outcome of Cybercrime law debate will speak to
the government’s stance on the issue.
96/180
Kenya Rank - 2018 World Press Freedom Index
0.0
500.0
1,000.0
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2013 2017*

KENYA
Total Recorded Employment Growth
Corporate Tax Rates, 2018
Source: KNBS
Source: KNBS
Furthermore, employment growth in the modern
sector has slowed from 6.0% in 2013 to 4.1% in
2017 while employment growth in the informal
sector remained around 6.0% over the same time
frame. With the informal sector having constituted
83.4% of jobs in 2017, the government would be
wise to seek measures to widen the tax base in
order to achieve its tax revenue targets.
The new Bill also proposes charging an additional
5.0% corporation tax (35% in total) to companies
earning over USD 4.9 million annually. The move
risks making Kenya uncompetitive and less
attractive as an investment destination and may
result in large taxpayers employing strategies to
avoid the higher rate by, for instance, dividing
large businesses into smaller units.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
New Tax Bill Takes Aim at High Earners
The National Treasury has brought forward
the Income Tax Bill, 2018 in a bid to increase
government tax revenue. In the first half of the
Financial Year 2017/18 the government’s revenue
collection efforts fell short of target by USD 632.3
million due to the under performance of main
revenue tax heads. The largest contributors to
tax receipts in Kenya are Value Added Tax (VAT),
income tax from individuals (P.A.Y.E.) and income
tax from corporations which in FY 2017/18 will
have accounted for 26.5%, 26.5%, and 22.6%¹ of
tax revenues, respectively.
Under the new Bill, the government is proposing
to introduce a new tax bracket for high income
earners. Currently, those earning USD 5,417.9 and
above annually pay 30.0% income tax while the
proposed provision would require those earning
at least USD 89,190.0 in a year to part with 35.0%
of their earnings. Considering that the average
annual wage in Kenya in 2017 was USD 6,762.3,
the proposed new 35.0% income tax bracket takes
a progressive approach in targeting high income
earners. There are, however, concerns around
how effective this proposed measure will be in
raising tax receipts due to the limited number of
individuals earning above USD 89,190.0 annually.
Source: KNBS, StratLink Africa
Tax Revenue Breakdown, FY 2017/18
1
Provisional figures from KNBS
Taxes on income, proﬁts and capital gains
Value Added Tax (VAT)
Taxes on other goods and services
Taxes on internaƟonal trade transacƟons
Other taxes
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Modern Sector, % Change y-o-y
Informal Sector, % Change y-o-y
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
Kenya
(Income
Tax Bill
2018)
South
Africa
Africa
Average
Global
Average

Investors Seek Shorter Term Debt
The yield curve remained largely stationary in
the month to 25 May, 2018 with a very marginal
decline seen in yields on long term bonds.
Demand for T-Bills has remained elevated in
the month of May with subscription rates on
government papers increasing from 136.8% on
3 May, 2018 to 184.2% on 24 May, 2018. The
government has managed to keep yields in check,
accepting 81.8% of bids, on average, across the
four auctions seen in the graph below. In the
latest bond issue, a 15-year Treasury bond (FXD
1/2018/15) aiming to raise USD 393.8 million,
the subscription rate was low at 50.4%, possibly
indicating investor preference for short term
papers as indicated in the high T-Bill performance
rates detailed above.
Bloomberg BVAL Yields Index
91 Day, 182 Day and 364 Day T-Bill Performance
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
KENYA
Bear Run Sustained in May
The downward trend of the NSE 20 Share price
index that began in April gained momentum in
the month of May. The index lost 497.8 points
(12.9%) between its peak in March this year and
25 May, where it closed at 3,364.6. Over the
same timeframe, the market capitalization of the
Nairobi Securities Exchange shed USD 7.8 billion,
equivalent to 28.3% of its value.
The bear run seen in the market was driven to
a large extent by foreign investors selling stock.
Returns for dollar investors have been boosted by
the appreciation of the shilling seen in the year-
to-date hence encouraging the net sale of their
holdings.
Nairobi Securities Exchange 20 Share Index
KES to USD
Note: Average KES/USD for May is calculated up until the 28th
10.4%
10.8%
11.2%
11.6%
12.0%
12.4%
12.8%
13.2%
13.6%
3M 1Y 3Y 5Y 8Y 10Y 20Y 30Y
25-May-18 27-Apr-18
50.0%
75.0%
100.0%
125.0%
150.0%
175.0%
200.0%
03-May-18
10-May-18
17-May-18
24-May-18
SubscripƟon rate
Amount Accepted / Bids Received
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
3,300.0
3,400.0
3,500.0
3,600.0
3,700.0
3,800.0
3,900.0
01-Feb-18
15-Feb-18
01-Mar-18
15-Mar-18
29-Mar-18
12-Apr-18
26-Apr-18
10-May-18
24-May-18
Millions
Volume NSE 20 Index (LHS)
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
100.0
100.5
101.0
101.5
102.0
102.5
103.0
103.5
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Average KES/USD, % Change m-o-m
Average KES/USD (LHS)

TANZANIA MARKET UPDATE
EXTENSIVE BUDGET CUTS, DELAYED DONOR FUNDING POTENTIAL TAILWINDS TO GROWTH

Stable Political Outlook
We maintain a positive outlook over Tanzania’s
political environment which has maintained a calm
profile. This month’s outlook focuses on Tanzania’s
internationalrelationsaswellasgovernmentpolicy
trends. With regard to international relations,
Tanzania has been keen to strengthen ties with
regional peers, particularly, Rwanda and Uganda.
In contrast, divergent interests in region-wide
trade policy, coupled with recurrent spats over
bilateral trade, have strained Tanzania’s ties with
Kenya. Nonetheless, both nations have reiterated
their commitment to improving relations in the
spirit of strengthening the East Africa Community
(EAC) integration, besides mutual economic
cooperation. Beyond the EAC region, Tanzania is
working on finding a lasting solution over its long
standingtusslewithitsneighborMalawiwithwhom
Tanzania has had an enduring border dispute over
apparent vast oil and gas reserves on the disputed
border. We expect the President to be at the
frontline of negotiations led by former Presidents
of Mozambique, South Africa and Botswana, to
mend the long-running spat, the minimal trade
between the nations, notwithstanding ─ Malawi
exports 1.1% of its total exports to Tanzania while
importing 2.5% of its total imports from Tanzania.
Inadequate Budget Funding and Implementation
Hamper Policy Execution
Tanzania’s five year policy agenda incorporated
in the five-year development plan that runs until
fiscal year 2021, prioritizes industrialization with
a commitment to pursue a private-sector-led
development strategy. However, erratic regulatory
decisions, in view of the mining sector, funding
short falls and poor budget implementation
─ only 33.0% of Local Government budgetary
allocation was utilized in 2016/17 financial year
while only about 30.0% pledged in the form of
budgetary support for the 2017/18 financial year
from development partners has been disbursed−
mean that these plans are likely to be only partly
or not implemented at all, making realization of
anticipated outcome a dream.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
TANZANIA
Monetary Policy Feeding through as Lending
Rates begin to Ease
Bank of Tanzania (BoT)’s monetary policy decisions
have been instrumental in pushing south the
commercial banks’ lending rates in the year ending
February 2018 compared to the same month in
the previous year, albeit marginally and with a
lag, as the expansionary policy decisions begin
to gain traction. The BoT shaved off 700.0bps
cumulatively off its discount rate to 12.0%, in
August 2017 after a four-year hiatus, to help
spur lending. Consequently, the overall weighted
average lending rate was ecorded at 17.3% in
February 2018 compared with 17.8% in the
corresponding month in 2017. Specifically, one-
year lending rate eased by 63.0 bps, year-on-year,
to 18.0% in the period under review.
In line with the drop in commercial banks’ average
lendingrates,severalcommercialbankshavetaken
steps to roll out loan packages with lower interest
rate and more friendly repayment options, a series
of actions aimed at attracting customers and
easing the non-performing loans portfolio (NPLs).
CRDB Bank has lowered the lending interest on
personal loans to 17.0% down from 21.0%. The
bank has also extended the period for repayment
of the loans from a maximum of 72.0 months to
84.0 months for civil servants and from 60 to 72 for
employeesintheprivatesector,amovethatshould
eventually drive overall private sector growth in
the country which, has remained subdued for a
while owing to tight liquidity conditions. NMB too
has joined the fray, slashing off 200.0 bps off its
lending rate to 17.0% for salaried customers, and
extended the repayment period from a maximum
of five years to six years.
Lending -Deposit Rate Spreads year-on-year
Source: Bank of Tanzania, StratLink Africa
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Extensive Budget Cuts and Delayed Donor
Funding Offer Headwinds to Development
The recent revelation that only about 30.0%
pledged in the form of budgetary support for
the 2017/18 financial year from development
partners has been disbursed, explains the decision
for government’s recent extensive budget cuts to
accommodate the inadequate funding available
and also brings to fore the country’s dilemma and
potential risk in over reliance on donor funding.
Government has proposed a 3.8% cut in the
budgets of eight of its ministries in the 2018/19
financial year which begins on 1st of July, 2018,
a revelation that offers headwinds to Tanzania’s
economic growth on the basis that the intended
projectswilleitherbedelayedornotimplemented,
in turn dragging down the country’s economic
growth. In this regard, government should map out
new strategies of revenue collection as it reduces
over reliance on donors for budgetary support.
Optimistic Revenue Projections
The government, through the Tanzania Revenue
Authority, envisages major rise in revenue
collections through its plans to rope in about
fifteen million new tax payers through the special
tax scheme that should accommodate over fifteen
million petty traders in the next three years, in
a bid to widen the tax base. Our May Update
highlighted the promising revenue collections
where the Revenue Authority reported an 8.5%
rise in revenue collection to USD 5,194.1 Million in
the first nine months of the 2017/18 financial year
Promoting Private Sector Growth to Grow
Revenues
A cut in government spending has the potential
effect of reducing aggregate demand in the
economy, resulting in a slow-down in economic
growth, thus, necessitating improvement of the
business environment to promote the private
sector, given that it is one way through which
government can promote revenue mobilization
and cut down on budgetary support.
Trends in Budget Balance ,Total Revenue and Total
Expenditure (USD Blns)
Trends in Private Final Consumption
Net Official Development Assistance Received (USD)
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Source: BMI, StratLink Africa
Source: World Bank Indicators, StratLink Africa
TANZANIA
against a full financial year target of USD 7,543.6
Million. We opine that this and other measures
put in place by government, including the
broader industrialization plan, will go a long way
in supporting government on its self-sufficiency
drive.
1,500.0
2,000.0
2,500.0
3,000.0
3,500.0
4,000.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Millions
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 e
Total Revenue Total Expenditure Budget Balance
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018e
2019f
Private final consumpƟon (% of GDP)
Growth in Private final consumpƟon ( y-o-y)
Private final consumpƟon (USD Bln; RHS)

Declining Yields as Liquidity Rises
Tanzania’s money market is of healthy liquidity
with rates in all of its instruments trending
downwards: Annual headline inflation for April,
2018 decreased by 0.1% to 3.8% compared to
the previous month, thanks to a slight change in
food prices, thus, supporting low yields. Similarly,
the short-term instruments reversed trends to
post undersubscription rates in the period under
review. Consequently, the yields for three months’,
six months’ and one year papers declined by 30.0
bps, 50.0bps and 30.0bps, month-on-month, to
1.9%, 2.7% and 4.8%, respectively, in the period
under review. We anticipate a further decline in
yields on the back of subdued inflation.
Like in the Treasury bills auctions, yields on
Treasury bonds remained on a declining trend but
with increased subscription. The downward trend
continued to characterize the overall weighted
average yield averaging 5.5% from 6.5% in the
preceding month and 15.0% in the corresponding
period last year.
Date Coupon Received Bids Successful Bids
Feb 10.08% 172 106
March 9.18% 167 71
April 7.82% 94 52
T-Bill Yields Trend
TANZANIA
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Tourism Inflows to tame Exchange Rate Risk
The Shilling depreciated marginally by 30.0 bps
between April and May, 2018 to 2,274.0 units.
Available data shows increasing demand for the
greenbackwhich,mayreversetheoptimistictrend,
if the inflows do not match. Nonetheless, the
bumper inflows from the tourism and agriculture
sectors should prop the local unit in the short and
medium terms as it maintains resilience against
the greenback.
Interbank Rate, month-on-month
Shilling vs USD
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
2,230.0
2,240.0
2,250.0
2,260.0
2,270.0
2,280.0
2,290.0
Apr-18
Apr-18
May-18
May-18
May-18
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
InterbankRate(Red)
VolumeinTZMilions
Shilling depreciation,
month-on-month
Shilling depreciation,
year-on-year
-0.3%
-1.7%

All Share Index Halts Gaining Streak
The All Share Index broke-off the gaining streak in
May 2018 closing the month 5.6% lower, month-
on-month, to 2,317.8 points driven by decrease in
share prices for both cross-listed and locally listed
companies,despitegoodperformancesfromsome
of the cross listed shares: Revenues for Vodacom
Tanzania, the only listed telecommunications firm,
grew by 16.7% in Q1 2018, supported by M-Pesa
revenues. Unlike in the previous month, local
investors led the buying activities taking up 98.0%
of the overall value of buying activities.
All Share Index, month-on-month
Sector Indices on Mixed Trends
Sector indices closed May 2018 on mixed trends;
on one hand, the Industrial and Allied index gained
by 3.1% to 6,170.8 units while on the other hand,
the Banking index fell by 2.7% to 2,516.4 units. The
Commercial Services index, in contrast, remained
unchanged at 2,332.1 units.
Source: Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange, StratLink Africa
All Share Index
2,200.0
2,250.0
2,300.0
2,350.0
2,400.0
2,450.0
2,500.0
2,550.0
2,600.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Apr-18
Apr-18
May-18
May-18
May-18
Price(Red)
VolumeinTZMillions
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
Industrial
Index
Commercial
Services Index
Banking Index
Apr-18 May-18
TANZANIA

BUDGET DEFICIT TO EXPAND IN MEDIUM TERM
UGANDA MARKET UPDATE

Convergence Criteria for EAC Monetary Union
Poses Challenges
In an effort to drive the East African Community
(EAC) towards deeper regional integration,
member states agreed to create the East
African Monetary Union (EAMU) when the EAC
Treaty was signed in 2013. As part of the EAMU
Protocol, members are required to harmonize
macroeconomic policies governing exchange
rates, interest rates as well as monetary and fiscal
policy. One of pre-requisites for joining the EAMU
in 2024 is that member states maintain a ceiling
on their fiscal deficit of 3.0%, including grants, of
GDP for three consecutive years prior to 2024.
This poses a challenge to Uganda who is expected
to record a fiscal deficit of 5.2% in FY 2017/18¹.
TheMinistryofFinanceiscontemplatingcuttingthe
fiscal deficit by restricting infrastructure spending,
one of the key pillars of the second National
Development Plan (NDP II). As an indication of the
increasing resource allocation to infrastructure,
the construction industry’s value as a proportion of
GDP increased from 5.8% in 2010 to 7.5% in 2017.
Alternatively, the government is considering using
oil revenues to fund infrastructure, which is risky
considering the possibility of delayed projects.
The government will need to carefully weigh the
future benefits of the EAMU against the costs of
cuts to key infrastructure projects or over-reliance
on projected oil revenues.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
UGANDA
Construction Industry Value, % GDP
Insurance Sector has a Ways to Go
The Insurance Regulatory Authority (IRA) has
stated that profit from non-life insurance fell by
14.0% in 2017 due to an increase in the number of
claims. This comes despite the fact that total gross
premiums are expected to have grown by 3.9% in
2017².
Falling profitability within the industry is a
discouraging sign considering the low level
of insurance penetration which, at 0.7%, is
below African peers and far below ideal levels.
Government policy driving innovation within
the industry and encouraging micro insurance,
for instance, will be key to increasing insurance
penetration rates.
Insurance Market Composition, 2017
Insurance Penetration 2016
(Total gross premiums written as % of GDP)
2
BMI1
BMI expected figures
71%
8%
21%
Non-Life gross premiums
Health Maintenance OrganizaƟon gross premiums
Life gross premiums
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2010 2017e
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Kenya
Ghana
Rwanda
Tanzania
Uganda
Nigeria

Tax Revenues Fall Short While Expenditure
Remains High
Shortfalls in government revenue and high
expenditure are bound to put pressure on the
country’s budget deficit going forward. The
government struggled with tax collection in FY
2016/17 due to sluggish economic performance
that negatively impacted income tax receipts as
well as low import values that reduced tax revenue
from the same. On the other hand, recurrent
expenditure for the same fiscal year was 4.0%
above target while development expenditure, key
to long-term socio-economic progress, was 27.0%
shy of target due to delays in the disbursement of
financing for a number of projects.
The first quarter of 2018 saw mixed performance
with tax collections below target in January and
March and high recurrent expenditure in February.
Source: Ministry of Finance, StratLink Africa
Tax and Recurrent Expenditure Performance
Revenue, Expenditure and Budget Balance
EAC Total Government Debt (2017), % of GDP
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
UGANDA
Budget Deficit to Expand
Between 2010 and 2017 the average budget
balance as a percentage of GDP was -3.3%
however, the budget deficit for 2018 is forecasted
to expand to 5.2% of GDP³. The anticipated
increase in government spending will be driven
by development expenditure on a number of
projects under the second National Development
Plan (NDP II), including significant infrastructure
enhancementinitiatives.However,thegovernment
will have to cut back inefficiencies that have seen
projects stall including bureaucracy and delays in
disbursements of finances.
While the widening deficit will weigh on the debt
burden, Uganda’s debt to GDP ratio remains
manageable when compared to regional peers.
The government will need to minimize delays in oil
related projects since those revenues will support
the budget balance in the long run.
3
BMI forecast
Tax revenue collected as
% of target for FY 2016/17
Recurrent expenditure as %
of target for FY 2016/17
96.4%
104.0%
90.0%
100.0%
110.0%
120.0%
Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18
Tax Collected as % of Target
Recurrent Expenditure as % of Target
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018f
Budget balance, % of GDP (RHS)
Total revenue, USDbn
Total expenditure, USDbn
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Kenya
Rwanda
Uganda
Tanzania
Burundi
South
Sudan

Equity Prices Drop
The All Share Index registered a steep drop of 5.0%
in the month to 25 May, 2018. This recent bear
run has been significantly influenced by the fall
in share prices of firms in neighboring Kenya that
are cross listed on the Uganda Securities Exchange
(USE). The selling off of said stocks was driven by
profit taking activities by foreign investors looking
to take advantage of the depreciation of the Kenya
shilling to gain high dollar returns.
Real Yields to Come Under Pressure
The yield curve saw increased rates on one year
and three year government securities while the
rest of the curve remained mostly static.
Increasing real yields (91 day T-Bill rate minus
inflation)supportedbylowinflationhavesustained
demand for government papers however, with
inflation expected to start edging up in the
course of the year, real returns on government
debt are expected to come under pressure.
The local unit has been experiencing increased
weakness, having depreciated by 0.9% against the
greenback in the month to 28 May, 2018. High
real yields and a depreciating currency are likely
to make government securities more appealing to
international investors however, the effect of this
remains to be seen.
All Share Index
Sovereign Yield Curve
Real Yield
Source: BoU, StratLink Africa
EQUITY MARKET UPDATEDEBT MARKET UPDATE
UGANDA
All Share Index month –
on – month change as at
25 May 2018
All Share Index year –
on – year change as at
25 May 2018
-5.0%
25.7%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
3M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 5Y 10Y
25-May-18 27-Apr-18
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
2,000.0
2,050.0
2,100.0
2,150.0
2,200.0
2,250.0
2,300.0
1-Feb-18
15-Feb-18
1-Mar-18
15-Mar-18
29-Mar-18
12-Apr-18
26-Apr-18
10-May-18
24-May-18

NEW INCOME TAX LAW TO SUPPORT REVENUE MOBILISATION DRIVE AS WELL AS DEVELOPMENT
OF CAPITAL MARKETS
RWANDA MARKET UPDATE

Ethiopia’s New Prime Minister Hosts Kagame
President Kagame traveled to Ethiopia, making
him the first foreign president to tour the country
since the swearing in of the new Prime Minister
in April this year. Expected areas of focus during
the visit are the African Union (AU) reform being
spear-headed by President Kagame in his capacity
as the AU Chairperson; and equitable use of
Nile waters where Ethiopia is building Africa’s
largest hydro dam, the 6,450.0 Mega Watts Great
Ethiopia Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile river
which it hopes will generate revenue through
energy exports to several other African countries
including Rwanda. Despite Rwanda’s minimal
trade with Ethiopia focusing on key sectors of
defense and air services, increasing bilateral
relations could see improved synergies for mutual
benefit. One of the key learning lessons for
Rwanda will be to borrow the positive aspects of
Ethiopia’s experience in the manufacturing sector,
particularly from Ethiopia’s flagship park, Hawassa
which, has proved successful after its inauguration
in July 2016 attracting world-class textile and
apparel companies to the country, in light of
Rwanda’s ongoing process of developing industrial
parks and developing strategies to promote
small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with a
view to spurring local development and boosting
the manufacturing sector to make Rwanda an
industrial nucleus.
Rwanda and France in Fresh Bid to Mend Ties
Keeping our finger on the pulse of Rwanda’s
bilateral relations, Rwandan and France’s President
held bilateral talks on 23rd May, 2018, in a bid to
mend frayed ties between the two nations after
about two decades of tension over France’s role
in the 1994 civil strife in Rwanda. And in what may
be seen as a show of goodwill likely to strengthen
ties between Rwanda and France, the President
of France has offered to support the candidacy
of Rwandan Foreign Minister as head of French-
speaking countries.
POLITICAL OUTLOOK
RWANDA
Industrial Users to Benefit from Lower Electricity
Tariffs
Rwanda’s industrial users are set to benefit from
lower electricity tariffs following the decision
by government to lower tariffs in the coming
months as part of ongoing reforms in the energy
sector and in a bid to incentivise investors in
the Special Economic Zones. In a move aimed at
increasing affordability, better service delivery and
competitiveness, government slashed unit prices
for electricity by half at the beginning of 2017
which, saw consumers with large industries being
charged about USD 0.09 per kilowatt, those with
medium industries USD 0.1 per kilowatt, while
the small industries put on a flat rate of 0.15 per
kilowatt and similarly to regional average cost of
energy at the grid. While electricity production
is improving, consumption in the industrial areas
remains unsatisfactory. Quarterly total electricity
generation, maintained an uptrend in 2017 with
50.4%, 47.7% and 1.9% of the total generated
electricity during 2017 emanating from Hydro
power plants, Thermal plants and solar energy,
respectively. Consequently, as part of the ongoing
reforms and in a bid to ensure timely electricity
provision for investors, the Regulatory Energy
Group has put in measures to ensure efficiency
in supply and use of electricity which include;
reduction of electricity connection days from
the current 34 to 20 days as well as introduction
of guidelines governing electricity outages to
industries which, place sanctions on electricity
outages that last more than ten minutes. Latest
available data shows that the value lost by firms
due to electricity outages declined from 8.7%
of sales in 2006 to 2.6% in 2011¹. These reforms
could serve to improve Rwanda’s ranking in getting
electricity in World Bank’s Doing Business ranking.
1
World Bank Data

Plugging tax revenue leaks comes in the wake of a
projected decline in the tax revenue-to-GDP ratio
to 14.9% in fiscal years 2018/19-2019/20, from
15.6% in the fiscal year 2016/17, by the Ministry
of Finance and Economic Planning. The income
tax and property tax laws, therefore, offer the
country the chance to rope in new taxpayers and
boost domestic revenue collections to finance
development programmes.
Re-think Revenue Curtailing Tax Incentives
Besides enactment of the Income Tax Law, Rwanda
should also rethink tax incentives especially, to
foreign investors to improve its fiscal position as
recent gains in revenue mobilization thin out.
The economically unsustainable tax incentives to
investors coupled with the drawn-out slow-down
in global as well as domestic economic growth, are
some of the potential risks to Rwanda’s economic
recovery trajectory. Moreover, Rwanda’s major
source of tax revenue, Agriculture, was negatively
impactedbythedroughtexperiencedinthesecond
half of 2016 and early 2017 that derailed the
country’s agricultural productivity, consequently
leading to a slowdown in economic growth over
the same period.
New Income Tax Law Changes to Support
Revenue Mobilization
Rwanda’s parliament enacted a new Income Tax
Law in April which, has since come into force, with
the main aim of streamlining the administration
of taxes on income and also addressing gaps
and grey areas in interpretation associated with
the repealed law. Some of the key changes that
we believe should boost Rwanda’s revenue kitty
include:
• We opine that the taxation of share transfer
transactions is one of the cardinal changes
brought about by the revised law and a
departure from its predecessor law which
was quite indeterminate in this regard and
supporting Rwanda’s bid to tighten controls on
transfer pricing by multinationals and seal tax
loopholes
• The new property law, likewise, introduces a
5.0% capital gains tax on any sale and transfer of
immovable property, a development we believe
should go a long way in supporting Rwanda’s
domestic revenue mobilization plans
• In a bid to broaden the tax base, formalize
the economy and increase revenue collection,
a 30.0% corporate income tax has also been
imposed on all professionals from the previous
3.0% of total turnover
The challenges notwithstanding, we remain
optimistic about the performance of Rwanda’s
fiscal balance and overall economic growth
trajectory in view of promising rainfall patterns
which should among others, rein in inflationary
pressure and support agricultural production.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
RWANDA
Source: World Bank, StratLink Africa
Tax Revenue as a % of GDP
Growth in Fiscal and Current Account Balances, year-
on-year
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
17.0%
18.0%
2015 2016
Rwanda Kenya Uganda
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
2015
2016
2017
2018e
2019f
Fiscal Balance Current Account

RWANDA
Source: National Bank of Rwanda, StratLink Africa
Interbank Rate
Marginal Yield Movements
ThemoneymarketenvironmentinRwandaremains
fairly liquid as seen in the constant decline in the
interbank rate since December 2017, consistent
with the Central Bank’s expansionary monetary
policy. The money market, however, witnessed a
slight squeeze in liquidity between April and May,
2018 with the interbank rate rising by 40.0bps to
5.6%.
Consequently, the short term government
securities posted marginal movements between
April and May, 2018. The 91 Day and the 182 Day
papers’ yields rose by 0.1% and 0.9% to 5.4% and
6.9%, respectively, while the 364 Day paper yield
declined by 0.3% to 6.1%, in the period under
review. Inflation also rose to 1.7% in April from
0.9% in March 2018, supporting the slight increase
in yields. Despite the slight inflationary uptick, we
expect broad price stability in the coming months
as food prices recover coupled with a stable
exchange rate. Thus, we expect yields to maintain
a southward trend in the coming months.
DEBT MARKET UPDATE
Franc Slips against the Greenback
The Franc caved in slipping by 60.0 bps against the
greenback in May 2018, after a resilient run in the
previous month, to close the month at 862.9 units.
Government Issues a 10-Year Bond
Rwanda has been issuing bonds as part of its
plans to develop its capital market as well as fund
infrastructureprojectsinamoveaimedatreducing
dependence on foreign budgetary assistance.
Consequently, government is back to the market
with a ten-year Treasury bond worth about
USD 11.7 billion whose coupon will be market-
determined, to fund infrastructure projects.
Source: National Bank of Rwanda, StratLink Africa
T Bill Yields
Franc depreciation, month-on-
month, as at May 23rd, 2018
Franc depreciation, year-on-
year, as at May 23rd, 2018
-0.6%
-3.8%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18

Rwanda All Share Index year-on-year
New Tax Law to Promote Development of Local
Capital Markets
The local capital market is buoyant following
the enactment of the revised Income Tax Law
which incorporates several changes that support
development of the local capital market, of special
mention being the tax incentives in the Law which,
should go a long way in supporting Rwanda’s
Capital Market Authority’s (CMA) collaborative
efforts aimedat easingaccess to long-term funding
through the capital markets. One of the incentives
under the new Law is a slash on income tax to
20.0% for companies who list at least 40.0% of
their shares on the Rwanda Stock Exchange (RSE),
25.0% for those that will sell 30.0% of their shares
to the public, while corporate income tax rate will
be 28.0% for any firm that lists 20.0% stake on RSE
under the new law. The new changes should, thus,
support Rwanda’s initiative to have more Small
and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) take advantage
of the law for alternative market segment that
has been in existence for about three years but
is still ineffective, by having more SMEs raise
development finance through capital markets and
increase the number of locally listed firms at RSE
from the current four of the eight companies on
the bourse.
Bralirwa’s 2017 After Tax Profits Soar
Listed shares at the Rwanda bourse posted
impressive results supporting the All Share Index
performance. Bralirwa’s after tax profits surged by
263.3%, year-on-year, to USD 5.8 million in 2017
attributed to operational efficiency. The All Share
Index remained unchanged at 133.1 units, month-
on-month, compared to the marginal 0.1% dip in
the previous month.
Bank of Kigali Planning to Cross-List on NSE
The Bank of Kigali, one of the bourse’s largest
shares by market capitalization, is looking to
cross list at Kenya’s Nairobi Securities Exchange
in the second half of the year as it looks to raise
investment capital. Available data indicates plans
by the bank to have a rights issue in October
2018 to boost capital. If implemented, these
developments should not only improve the share’s
liquidity, having stagnated at around USD 0.3 for
the past two months, but also infuse some liquidity
at the dormant bourse.
All Share Index Change,
month-on-month
All Share Index Change,
year-on-year
0.0%
4.0%
120.0
122.0
124.0
126.0
128.0
130.0
132.0
134.0
136.0
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
RWANDA

StratLink in the News:
On May 8th 2018, the International Monetary Fund raised the red flag over potential
debt distress in low income economies in sub-Saharan Africa. This view dove tails
with StratLink Research’s piece published in August 2017 titled Sluggish recovery
by low income countries could be Africa’s next big challenge. The article, in part,
discussed the potential of a weakened debt sustainability position in low income
economies in the region.
On May 19th, 2018, Civil Servants’ unions in South Africa entered a deal with the
government in favor of an above inflation wage increase for workers. The deal is
expected to have wages for the lowest paid workers increase by as much as 7.0%.
This development comes against the backdrop on StratLink Research’s June 2017
article titled Why the pressure for higher minimum wages is gaining traction in
Africa in which we tabled a case for a gaping disconnect between high GDP growth
rates and almost muted growth in wages. The article particularly addressed the
need for inflation beating wage increases in Africa.
StratLink Research’s May 2018 Africa Market Update was cited by The East African
in its assessment of the trend in equity markets across East Africa.
In this issue, we focus on the May 2018 IMF statement on fragility in low income countries in sub-Saharan Africa and
the wage hike in South Africa. Both developments lend credence to analysis tabled by StratLink Research in 2017 in
separate opinion pieces published by the London School of Economics Business Review.

STRATLINK - AFRICA TEAM
Konstantin Makarov – Managing Partner
konstantin.makarov@stratLinkglobal.com
Dina Farfel – Partner
dfarfel@stratLinkglobal.com
Julio De Souza - Director of SME and Impact Finance
julio.desouza@stratLinkglobal.com
Kyle Drexler – Associate
kyle.drexler@stratLinkglobal.com
Benson Njeri – Analyst
benson.njeri@stratLinkglobal.com
Julians Amboko – Senior Research Analyst
julians.amboko@stratLinkglobal.com
Gianluca Storchi – Senior Research Analyst
gianluca.storchi@stratLinkglobal.com
Sophia Sifuma – Research Analyst
sophia.sifuma@stratLinkglobal.com
Peter Mutisya – Director Graphic Design
peter.mutisya@stratLinkglobal.com
STRATLINK AFRICA LTD - WHO WE ARE
StratLink is an Africa focused financial advisory company
with Capital Raising Advisory, Corporate Advisory and
Market Research as our core business lines. We believe in
the growth potential of sub-Saharan African economies and
partner with our clients to execute their vision by providing
quality services and access to capital. We recognize
opportunities in the region and connect the fastest growing
middle market companies with leading global investment
banks, private equity firms and family offices. We value the
importance of making informed decisions and leverage our
regional knowledge to the advantage of our clients.
Sub-Saharan Africa: In-depth macro and microeconomic
research
Within our purview of coverage are nine economies –
Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana,
Angola and Gabon. We undertake incisive research and
analysis of each of the countries’ macro and microeconomic
environment, debt and equity markets. We also conduct
sector specific research and analysis shedding insight on
market landscape, existing gaps and opportunities as well
as potential challenges.
Our guarantee: Competent team, reliable data
Our research is anchored in a competent and versatile
team traversing the fields of economics and finance with
qualifications from globally recognized institutions. The
team is backed by subscription to reliable databases such
as Business Monitor International, Bloomberg, Thomson
One Research, World Economics and The World Today.
As such, our guarantee is reliable and up to date data in
an increasingly dynamic region. Further, we reach out to
relevant bodies in concerned markets including Central
Banks, ministries and state departments.
Authoritative voice on regional economics
StratLink has become an authoritative voice for commentary
and opinion on issues pertaining to Sub-Saharan African
economies and investment. Reputable media including
CNBC Africa, Nation Media Group, CCTV and Bloomberg
have reached out to the company for opinion and analysis.
Where we are based
Our head office is in Nairobi, Kenya with satellite offices in
New York, Kampala and Kuala Lumpur.

ContactDetails
STRATLINK AFRICA
StratLink - Africa, Limited.
Delta Riverside, Block 4,
4th Floor, Riverside Drive,
Nairobi, Kenya
nairobi@stratlinkglobal.com
www.stratlinkglobal.com
+254202572792

June 2018 Africa Market Update

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June 2018 Africa Market Update