This report, by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), provides price recommendations and non-price measures for mandated kharif crops for the 2017-18 market season. The CACP, set up in 1965, was originally called the Agricultural Prices Commission but was given its present name in 1985. It prescribes the minimum support price (MSP) for 23 agricultural commodities to the government. These include 7 cereals, 5 pulses, 7 oilseeds and 4 commercial crops. CACP is attached to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India.
In order to arrive at the MSP, the CACP takes into account factors such as cost of production, the overall demand-supply situation, domestic and international prices, changes in input costs, inter-crop price parity, terms of trade, efficient use of resources, and the impact of MSPs on price levels.
The report furnishes most of its data in tables, graphs and charts.
Prices on the benchmark grain and feed ingredient markets had been eroding further since our last review, several reaching new five and a to six-year lows. But the latest descent was much more gradual than in recent months and by mid-March, market leaders wheat, maize and soyabeans had all begun to show signs of bottoming out. The leading Chicago wheat futures
The primary purpose of this paper is comparing six common models, which were linear, quadratic, Cobb-Douglas, translog, logarithmic, and transcendental, to estimate the supply and demand functions for Saudi Arabian wheat. In addition to estimating the market equilibrium for price and quantity, that led to identifying consumer and producer surplus. Data cover 1990-2014 for all the variables that used to show the effect supply and demand of Wheat. After testing the models using Stepwise and Box-Cox, we came up with the fact that the linear and Cobb-Douglas methods were the best models to show the relationship between variables. On the supply side, we found using the linear model, that wheat price had a negative sign, which represents the impact of government policy number 335. However, in the Cobb-Douglas model, the wheat price had a positive sign. The elasticity coefficient of supply for the wheat price was inelastic. Moreover, the result also showed that all the elasticity coefficients in the supply and demand models were inelastic. The low-income elasticity of demand led the consumption of wheat to increase.
This report, by the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), provides price recommendations and non-price measures for mandated kharif crops for the 2017-18 market season. The CACP, set up in 1965, was originally called the Agricultural Prices Commission but was given its present name in 1985. It prescribes the minimum support price (MSP) for 23 agricultural commodities to the government. These include 7 cereals, 5 pulses, 7 oilseeds and 4 commercial crops. CACP is attached to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India.
In order to arrive at the MSP, the CACP takes into account factors such as cost of production, the overall demand-supply situation, domestic and international prices, changes in input costs, inter-crop price parity, terms of trade, efficient use of resources, and the impact of MSPs on price levels.
The report furnishes most of its data in tables, graphs and charts.
Prices on the benchmark grain and feed ingredient markets had been eroding further since our last review, several reaching new five and a to six-year lows. But the latest descent was much more gradual than in recent months and by mid-March, market leaders wheat, maize and soyabeans had all begun to show signs of bottoming out. The leading Chicago wheat futures
The primary purpose of this paper is comparing six common models, which were linear, quadratic, Cobb-Douglas, translog, logarithmic, and transcendental, to estimate the supply and demand functions for Saudi Arabian wheat. In addition to estimating the market equilibrium for price and quantity, that led to identifying consumer and producer surplus. Data cover 1990-2014 for all the variables that used to show the effect supply and demand of Wheat. After testing the models using Stepwise and Box-Cox, we came up with the fact that the linear and Cobb-Douglas methods were the best models to show the relationship between variables. On the supply side, we found using the linear model, that wheat price had a negative sign, which represents the impact of government policy number 335. However, in the Cobb-Douglas model, the wheat price had a positive sign. The elasticity coefficient of supply for the wheat price was inelastic. Moreover, the result also showed that all the elasticity coefficients in the supply and demand models were inelastic. The low-income elasticity of demand led the consumption of wheat to increase.
IT has been a mostly bearish period since our last review – thanks to some new record crop and stocks estimates for wheat and soyabeans and the chill economic wind blowing from China. The latter especially has unsettled global market sentiment, casting a shadow over the forward outlook for commodity demand – especially in the feed and bio-fuel sectors (depressing crude oil prices to new lows). It also seems to have outweighed, for now at least, the likelihood that US and CIS – possibly also South American maize supply has been over-rated – although, even if it is, there is probably still more than enough of the leading feed grain to meet all perceived demand, as discussed in more detail below. The overall impact of these events as we go to press has been to push prices to new five-year lows for US and EU wheat, 6½- year lows for soyabeans and to dampen ideas of a sustained recovery in the feed grain sector (maize prices have at least managed to stay above last September’s five-year lows but for how long?)
Marcos S. Jank
SPECIAL EVENT
Transforming Agriculture: Experiences and Insights from Brazil and Beyond
Co-Organized by IFPRI and Embrapa
MAY 15, 2018 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT
A summary of OECD-FAO's agricultural outlook for 2024, this article observes agricultural commodities' projections for emerging nations vs. the developed world.
Much of the volatility witnessed in commodity markets in the previous decade is set to balance in the coming 10 years.
Creating the policy framework for a sustainable rice industry in thailandSarthak Luthra
Creating the policy framework for a sustainable rice industry in Thailand, which is considered the largest exporter of rice. What lies ahead for the Thai government, and what strategic recommendations can be given to the government.
21st feb.,2014 daily exclusive oryza news by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Daily Rice Global Rice e-Newsletter shared by Riceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news with us for Global readers.
Dear all guests/Commentators/Researchers/Experts ,You are humbly requested to share One/Two pages write up with Riceplus Magazine .
For more information visit (www.ricepluss.com + http://publishpk.net/index.php/riceplus).
Share /contribute your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine to riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
Marketing of Agricultural Products, a Panacea for Economic Growth and Sustain...ijtsrd
There is an urgent need for the revitalization of the Nigerian Agricultural sector especially now the economic situation of the economy is nothing to write home about. The Agricultural sector of Nigeria was neglected for years owing to the discovery of crude oil in the 70s. Crude oil exportation gradually replaced Agricultural products exportation until Nigeria became a mono product exporting nation. The current fall in oil prices have led to the recent clamor for the diversification of the economy through agricultural export performance. Serveral policies have been implemented by the government both in state and federal levels in order to boost the agricultural sector but no significant change has been achieved. This indicates that the sector is faced with challenges which must be identified and nipped in the bud for the sector to flourish. Marketing of Agricultural products has been identified by various researchers globally and in Nigeria as the major problems of the Agricultural sector. Various scholars have discovered that if the right marketing practices is not put in place in the Agricultural sector of an economy, the sector would not flourish. Therefore the thrust of this conceptual study was to identify the problems associated with the marketing of Agricultural products with a view to proffering recommendations of the best marketing practices to adopt in order to boost the Agricultural sector of the economy for economic growth and sustainable development. Nwuba, Chibike Onyije "Marketing of Agricultural Products, a Panacea for Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-2 , February 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38503.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/marketing/38503/marketing-of-agricultural-products-a-panacea-for-economic-growth-and-sustainable-development-in-nigeria/nwuba-chibike-onyije
Stella Massawe, Joseph Karugia & Paul Guthiga presented data on the agricultural productivity of COMESA at a knowledge sharing seminar held on February 6th, 2013 at the COMESA Secretariat in Lusaka, Zambia
"Regional Trade Flows and Resilience in COMESA and ECOWAS Countries" presented by Carlo Azzarri, Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI, at 2014 ReSAKSS Annual Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, October 9, 2014
The global grain products market was valued at around $265 billion in 2017. Asia Pacific was the largest region in the grain products market in 2017, accounting for under 57% market share.
Read Report
https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/grain-products-global-market-report-2018
Cassava markets, value chains and livelihoods in Asia: when uncertain is the...Jonathan Newby
Presentation at GCP21 Conference in the session of Cassava Mosaic Disease in Asia to highlight what is at stake with disease potentially impacting the productivity of this important commercial crop.
Robert Johansson
SPECIAL EVENT
Discussion on the Key Findings of FAO’s 2019 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report
Co-Organized by FAO North America and IFPRI
JUL 18, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT
IT has been a mostly bearish period since our last review – thanks to some new record crop and stocks estimates for wheat and soyabeans and the chill economic wind blowing from China. The latter especially has unsettled global market sentiment, casting a shadow over the forward outlook for commodity demand – especially in the feed and bio-fuel sectors (depressing crude oil prices to new lows). It also seems to have outweighed, for now at least, the likelihood that US and CIS – possibly also South American maize supply has been over-rated – although, even if it is, there is probably still more than enough of the leading feed grain to meet all perceived demand, as discussed in more detail below. The overall impact of these events as we go to press has been to push prices to new five-year lows for US and EU wheat, 6½- year lows for soyabeans and to dampen ideas of a sustained recovery in the feed grain sector (maize prices have at least managed to stay above last September’s five-year lows but for how long?)
Marcos S. Jank
SPECIAL EVENT
Transforming Agriculture: Experiences and Insights from Brazil and Beyond
Co-Organized by IFPRI and Embrapa
MAY 15, 2018 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT
A summary of OECD-FAO's agricultural outlook for 2024, this article observes agricultural commodities' projections for emerging nations vs. the developed world.
Much of the volatility witnessed in commodity markets in the previous decade is set to balance in the coming 10 years.
Creating the policy framework for a sustainable rice industry in thailandSarthak Luthra
Creating the policy framework for a sustainable rice industry in Thailand, which is considered the largest exporter of rice. What lies ahead for the Thai government, and what strategic recommendations can be given to the government.
21st feb.,2014 daily exclusive oryza news by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Daily Rice Global Rice e-Newsletter shared by Riceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news with us for Global readers.
Dear all guests/Commentators/Researchers/Experts ,You are humbly requested to share One/Two pages write up with Riceplus Magazine .
For more information visit (www.ricepluss.com + http://publishpk.net/index.php/riceplus).
Share /contribute your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine to riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
Marketing of Agricultural Products, a Panacea for Economic Growth and Sustain...ijtsrd
There is an urgent need for the revitalization of the Nigerian Agricultural sector especially now the economic situation of the economy is nothing to write home about. The Agricultural sector of Nigeria was neglected for years owing to the discovery of crude oil in the 70s. Crude oil exportation gradually replaced Agricultural products exportation until Nigeria became a mono product exporting nation. The current fall in oil prices have led to the recent clamor for the diversification of the economy through agricultural export performance. Serveral policies have been implemented by the government both in state and federal levels in order to boost the agricultural sector but no significant change has been achieved. This indicates that the sector is faced with challenges which must be identified and nipped in the bud for the sector to flourish. Marketing of Agricultural products has been identified by various researchers globally and in Nigeria as the major problems of the Agricultural sector. Various scholars have discovered that if the right marketing practices is not put in place in the Agricultural sector of an economy, the sector would not flourish. Therefore the thrust of this conceptual study was to identify the problems associated with the marketing of Agricultural products with a view to proffering recommendations of the best marketing practices to adopt in order to boost the Agricultural sector of the economy for economic growth and sustainable development. Nwuba, Chibike Onyije "Marketing of Agricultural Products, a Panacea for Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in Nigeria" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-5 | Issue-2 , February 2021, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd38503.pdf Paper Url: https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/marketing/38503/marketing-of-agricultural-products-a-panacea-for-economic-growth-and-sustainable-development-in-nigeria/nwuba-chibike-onyije
Stella Massawe, Joseph Karugia & Paul Guthiga presented data on the agricultural productivity of COMESA at a knowledge sharing seminar held on February 6th, 2013 at the COMESA Secretariat in Lusaka, Zambia
"Regional Trade Flows and Resilience in COMESA and ECOWAS Countries" presented by Carlo Azzarri, Research Fellow, Environment and Production Technology Division, IFPRI, at 2014 ReSAKSS Annual Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, October 9, 2014
The global grain products market was valued at around $265 billion in 2017. Asia Pacific was the largest region in the grain products market in 2017, accounting for under 57% market share.
Read Report
https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/grain-products-global-market-report-2018
Cassava markets, value chains and livelihoods in Asia: when uncertain is the...Jonathan Newby
Presentation at GCP21 Conference in the session of Cassava Mosaic Disease in Asia to highlight what is at stake with disease potentially impacting the productivity of this important commercial crop.
Robert Johansson
SPECIAL EVENT
Discussion on the Key Findings of FAO’s 2019 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report
Co-Organized by FAO North America and IFPRI
JUL 18, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT
Our Industry 2014 is packed with insights and useful facts, graphs and images from Syngenta and many external sources. It covers the global challenges relating to food security and includes sections on the major crops and on advances in agricultural technology.
BRAZIL: Latin America's largest maritime player
* Trends as an international supplier of commodities;
* Review of current / required Infrastructure;
* Logistics investments opportunities;
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
Mr. Sterling Liddell and Ms. Christine McCracken - Production Growth Ahead; C...John Blue
Production Growth Ahead; Competition Heats Up - Rabobank’s 2018 Pork/Animal Protein Outlook - Mr. Sterling Liddell and Ms. Christine McCracken, Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research, from the 2018 Missouri Pork Expo, February 6-7, 2018, Columbia, MO, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2018-missouri-pork-expo
22nd january,2015 daily global rice e newsletter by riceplus magazineRiceplus Magazine
Daily Rice Global Rice e-Newsletter shared by Riceplus Magazine
Riceplus Magazine shares daily International RICE News for global Rice Community. We publish daily two newsletters namely Global Rice News & ORYZA EXCLUSIVE News for readers .You can share any development news with us for Global readers.
Dear all guests/Commentators/Researchers/Experts ,You are humbly requested to share One/Two pages write up with Riceplus Magazine .
For more information visit (www.ricepluss.com + http://publishpk.net/index.php/riceplus).
Share /contribute your rice and agriculture related research write up with Riceplus Magazine to riceplus@irp.edu.pk , mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
For Advertisement & Specs mujahid.riceplus@gmail.com
Markets and Outlook: Global AgriculturePascal Corbé
Presentation by Jonathan Brooks at the GIZ event on Global Agriculture and Production Trends in December 2015. The head of OECD’s Agri-Food Trade and Markets Division, and contributor to recent OECD flagship reports, including the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2015-2024 focuses on important global agricultural market and price trends for major commodities and respective implications for agricultural and rural development in sub-Sahara Africa.
Livestock policy paradoxes: Promulgating a crisis? Or providing a solution?ILRI
Presented by Jimmy Smith at the 16th Asian Australasian Animal Production Congress on Sustainable Livestock Production in the Perspective of Food Security, Policy, Genetic Resources and Climate Change, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, 10–14 November 2014
Jim Wiesemeyer - Washington Update: Will Dysfunctional Washington Ever FunctionJohn Blue
Washington Update: Will Dysfunctional Washington Ever Function - Jim Wiesemeyer, Informa Economics, from the 2014 Iowa Pork Congress, January 22-23, Des Moines, IA, USA.
More presentations at http://www.swinecast.com/2014-iowa-pork-congress
2. ConsiliAgra agricultural market thesis
The risk of a demand shock has quieted – even if China-U.S. sign Phase I – we are well past the golden
decade of global growth
A supply shock is needed to reverse market sentiment / psychology as that demand driver is largely
missing – save for biodiesel for edible oils
Overall feel – keep risk limited (trade the ranges) given two major unknown elements
U.S. trade policy
South American production
South America & the Black Sea dominate world grain + oilseed trade flows and presently, world supplies
are adequate-ample and just-in-time inventory procurement strategies with the U.S. acting as the
transparent backstop for world buyers:
Implied price floor = 350¢ corn, 400-425¢ wheat, 850¢ soy, $295-290 SM. BO = 3000 - 3300
3. The golden decade of globalization in agriculture + dietary shifts + biofuels
100.00%
105.00%
110.00%
115.00%
120.00%
125.00%
130.00%
135.00%
140.00%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Soy oil Palm oil Canola oil
Industrial demand - edible oil (2005-2015 growth)
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Total demand growth + % gain in that decade
Corn = 294.7MMT or
41.7%
FSI growth =
160.5MMT (54.4%
of total growth) or
70.6% in a decade
Wheat = 96.7MMT or
15.7%
Soymeal = 100.4MMT or
46.5%
Soy oil = 18.8MMT or
56.3%
Palm oil = 27.2MMT or
83.8%
Canola oil = 10.56MMT
or 60%
Canola seed =
21.56MMT or 44.8%
5. Macro drivers that currently feed + influence this agriculture thesis, bias and general outlook
Globalization – from buzz to dud with a shift to nationalism
Global debt – a new record + King dollar
Global economic growth – cheap money + low commodity prices = consolidation
Global poverty
Population growth – youth + emerging economies + area of population growth
Democratization of information + access to information
The rise of the global farmer
Consumer trends
Trade wars
Supply shock risks – comes from two areas: (1) weather + (2) pesticides
15. World soy supply cushion & the difference between now and previous years
World supply cushion = 99.6 days vs
116.1 days in 2018-19
Key points:
Who holds these stocks – becomes
critical in this just-in-time / not
wanting to take any more risk than
necessary given geopolitics
Exportable supply cushion – viewed
more in a 55+ day type scenario given
where soybean stocks are located
Range-bound trade – expected to
continue 950-850 barring any
production shocks or soymeal trading
sub-280 vs front month futures
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
World soybean supply cushion = 99.6 days
16. ENDING STOCKS: the “never (rarely) export” + “tough to buy because of politics” storage tanks
MY2019-2020
supply cushion =
99.6 days
China holds 20%
= 20 days
Argentina holds
27% = ~27 days
Bottom-line –
the world
soybean supply
cushion is more
in that 53 day
range 0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
2018/2019
2019/2020
Argentina soy stocks - return to Peron-Kirchner export tax
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
2018/2019
2019/2020
China soy stocks - reserve building on tap for 2020?
17. ENDING STOCKS: the world’s largest soybean exporter + U.S. “transition” to global storage tank
MY2019-2020
supply cushion =
99.6 days
Brazil - the world’s
largest exporter +
favored origin to
China holds 31% =
31.6 days
U.S. – 2nd largest
exporter to store
13.5% or 13.5 days
– transparent
backstop for world
buyers
2 exporters
account = 45 days
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
2018/2019
2019/2020
Brazil soy stocks - world's largest exporter to store 31%
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
2018/2019
2019/2020
U.S. soy stocks - world's 2nd largest exporter to store 13.5%
18. World soy production to fall 13MMT short in 2019-2020 ….
This is a “warning” sign and will be an underlying
theme and influence for soy futures through CY2020
BOTTOM-LINE: for every 1MMT lost (production) or
gained (demand) – it removes one day of supply from the
world’s supply cushion
RISKS
China soybean import demand – does the
government push to expand state reserves and bring
in more of the world’s supply cushion into their own
country (positive for U.S. or Argentina)
China soybean and soymeal demand – is
understated if their hog sector can recover faster than
expected (SM demand shows contraction (-331KMT).
Soy demand +200KMT). As a reminder – from 2015
to 2016 – SM demand increased ~6MMT (+9.5%).
During that same period – soy demand increased
7.6MMT
-25,000 -20,000 -15,000 -10,000 -5,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
2018/2019
2019/2020
World soybean production vs consumption
19. SOYBEANS: U.S. ending stocks – will decline 50% vs 2018-19 record but…..
The U.S. storing more of world
soybean stocks should be viewed
by world importers and users as a
positive feature for a supply
source. Similar to what we’ve
seen in corn + wheat market /
transitions.
KEY QUESTION – what is the
market willing to pay for the U.S.
to store more of the world’s
soybeans rather than Argentina?
COST OF DEBT? Will the U.S.
farmer be the first to capitulate
and sell its on-farm stocks versus
debt cost-financing constraints in
2019? This would be a bearish
trigger
-30,000
-25,000
-20,000
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
U.S. soy production - change year vs year
-23.9MMT0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
2018/2019
2019/2020
U.S. ending stocks - decline due to production -> not demand
Prod Stocks
20. WORLD SOY OIL: biodiesel + China edible oil imports key demand drivers for 2020
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2000/2001
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2010/2011
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
2014/2015
2015/2016
2016/2017
2017/2018
2018/2019
2019/2020
World industrial demand of soy oil - % total demand
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
World soy oil supply cushion = 22 days
China Oct 2019 palm oil
imports = 795.2KMT – up
73.1% vs Oct 2018
China Oct 2019 soy oil
imports = 98.2KMT- up
48.9% vs Oct 2018
Monitor China crush rates
(-9.4%) – if this picks up on
better crush margins ->
will impact edible oil
imports
Monitor U.S. oil yield –
October NOPA crush =
11.57 (vs 11.68 Sept &
11.71 Oct)
Brazil B13 – March 2020
21. OIL SHARE: the most important price relationship in 2020
22. Argentina faces unknown with the return of Peronism 10 December 2019
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Argentina soymeal exports - 45%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
Argentina soy oil exports – 50.9%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Argentina soybean exports - 5.9%
23. Monthly soybean prices … China-U.S. trade war dominates
Soybeans back to decade-low
prices
Funds – record short in May
2019 and then went long and
now back to healthy short in
the market
USDA has no growth for China
soybean crush
World soybean market under
goes same transition / shape as
world wheat and corn markets
when it comes to Chicago
futures and U.S. storage tank
role
24. Monthly soymeal prices – bouncing off multi-year lows – feed demand expands Funds are short soymeal with
soybean short vs soy oil long
Brazil crush rates – remain a
challenge (more SM to be
consumed domestically)
World soymeal demand faces
challenges of African Swine Fever
Argentina protein levels -
challenge
ASF – does the consumer shift
away from pork and towards
other protein (eggs, poultry,
aquaculture)?
U.S. soymeal export sales are off
to a slow start (-15%) to MY2019-
2020 – forecast to decline 1.5%
25. Monthly soy oil prices – funds long + palm oil + U.S. oil yield + China Soy oil prices have been locked in a
downtrend since 2011 – now
consolidating (funds long 67K vs record
long = 126.5K)
Bottoming price action in soy oil charts
as the focus is on China + palm oil
prices
World veg oil supplies show a decline in
stocks for 2019-2020 with U.S. soy oil
ending stocks to fall once again on
biodiesel demand
Brazil biodiesel program becomes
“more interesting” given crush capacity
constraints (poor margin environment)
– greater shift to soybean exports
versus domestic crush
Argentina politics is a major question
for world soy oil values
26. Disclosure
This presentation is for informational purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any commodity.
Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from reliable sources, we do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be
incomplete or condensed. All options and opinions are subject to change without notice.
This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction.
This material has been prepared by ConsiliAgra who provides research market commentary and trade recommendations as part of his
or her solicitation for accounts and solicitation for trades; however, ConsiliAgra does not maintain a research department as defined in
CFTC Rule 1.71. ConsiliAgra may trade in derivatives for their own accounts or for the accounts of others. Due to various factors (such
as risk tolerance, margin requirements, trading objectives, short term vs. long term strategies, technical vs. fundamental market
analysis, and other factors) such trading may result in the initiation or liquidation of positions that are different from or contrary to the
opinions and recommendations contained therein.
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Trade recommendations and profit/loss calculations may not
include commissions and fees. Please consult your broker for details based on your trading arrangement and commission setup. The
risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks
involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their
results.
You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.