2. 226September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
Education in times of economic uncertainty
In the current economic environment…
… Continued strong demand for education
– Poor labour markets and low opportunity costs for education
… Substantial public and private gains from education
– Earnings premium for tertiary education remains large and
continues to grow
- Public long-term gains from higher education are almost
three times the size of the investments
… High-level skills key to competitiveness
… Comparative cost advantage across OECD countries
varies with educational levels
… Labour-market entry becomes more difficult
– Particularly for young lower educated individuals
… Education a good insurance against unemployment and to
stay employed especially in weak labour markets
Educational attainment likely to rise further
Continuing education increasingly important.
4. 446September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher When the crisis hit
Percentage-point change between 2008-09 in unemployment rate for 15-29 year-olds
- 10 20 30 40
Norway
Netherlands
Switzerland
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
Austria
Korea
New Zealand
Australia
Mexico
Denmark
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Italy
Japan
Sweden
Belgium
OECD average
France
Brazil
Poland
Chile
Germany
Israel
Finland
Canada
Portugal
Hungary
Greece
United States
Slovak Republic
Ireland
Turkey
Estonia
Spain
C3.1 - 10 20 30 40
Norway
Netherlands
Switzerland
Luxembourg
United Kingdom
Austria
Korea
New Zealand
Australia
Mexico
Denmark
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Italy
Japan
Sweden
Belgium
OECD average
France
Brazil
Poland
Chile
Germany
Israel
Finland
Canada
Portugal
Hungary
Greece
United States
Slovak Republic
Ireland
Turkey
Estonia
Spain
Tertiary education (%)Below upper secondary
education (%)
2008 2009
16. 20206September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-
old age groups, percentage (2009)
55-64-year-old population 25-34-year-old population
About 39 million people
who attained tertiary level
About 81 million people
who attained tertiary level
17. 21216September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher The composition of the global talent pool has changed…
Countries’ share in the population with tertiary education, for 25-34 and 55-64 year-
old age groups, percentage (2009)
United States,
31.7
Japan, 11.0
China, 6.1
Germany, 5.6
United Kingdom,
4.7
Canada, 3.7
France, 3.1
Brazil, 3.1
Spain, 1.9
Italy, 1.7
Mexico, 1.6
Australia, 1.5
Korea, 1.4
other, 11.4
55-64-year-old population
United States,
17.9
Japan, 9.5
China, 16.0
Germany, 2.7
United Kingdom,
3.9
Canada, 2.7
France, 3.5
Brazil, 3.9
Spain, 3.1
Italy, 1.7
Mexico, 3.4
Australia, 1.4
Korea, 5.0
other, 12.6
25-34-year-old population
18. 22226September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
…and will continue to change
Share of new entrants into tertiary education in 2009 (all OECD and G20 countries)
China, 36.6%
United States,
12.9%
Russian
Federation,
10.0%
Indonesia, 4.9%Japan, 4.2%
Turkey, 3.7%
United Kingdom,
3.3%
Mexico, 3.1%
Korea, 3.1%
Argentina, 2.7%
Germany, 2.5%
Poland, 2.1%
Spain, 1.6%
Italy, 1.4%
Australia, 1.3%
Chile, 1.3%
Netherlands,
0.5%
Other countries,
4.8%
Other
Portugal 0.5%
Czech Republic 0.4%
Israel 0.4%
Sweden 0.4%
Belgium 0.4%
Hungary 0.4%
Austria 0.4%
New Zealand 0.3%
Switzerland 0.3%
Slovak Republic 0.3%
Denmark 0.2%
Norway 0.2%
Ireland 0.2%
Finland 0.2%
Slovenia 0.1%
Estonia 0.1%
Iceland 0.0%
22. 29296September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
Skills and social outcomes
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
Level 5 Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1
Has fair to poor health
Does not volunteer for
charity or non-profit
organizations
Poor understanding of
political issues facing
country
Poor level of general trust
Higher propensity of
believing people try to take
of advantage of others
Lower propensity to
reciprocate
Poor political efficacyPIAAC skill level
Odds ratios
26. 34346September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
Chart A7.3
Skills acquisition and use, 25-64 year-olds
with a tertiary education (2009)
Brazil
Turkey
Italy
Portugal
CzechRepublic
Slovak Republic
Mexico
Austria
Hungary
Poland
Chile
Slovenia
Greece
Germany
France
Spain
OECD Average
Netherlands
Iceland
Sweden
Belgium
Denmark
Luxembourg
Switzerland
Ireland
Estonia
Norway
Australia
Finland
UnitedKingdom
Korea
NewZealand
UnitedStates
Japan
Israel
Canada
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
10 20 30 40 50
Proportion of population with tertiary education, %
Employmentrateofpopulationwithtertiaryeducation,%
%
28. 43436September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
An increasingly mobile student population
In 2009, over 3.7 million tertiary students were
enrolled outside their country of citizenship
New players are emerging in an increasingly
competitive market for international education
Australia and the Russian Federation expanded their market
share by two percentage points over the past decade, and
Korea, New Zealand and Spain by one percentage point each
Share of the USA dropped from 23% to 18%
Germany, the UK and Belgium also lost ground
Largest numbers of international students are from
China, India and Korea
29. 44446September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
Evolution by region of destination in the number
of students enrolled outside their country of
citizenship (2000 to 2009)
0
500 000
1 000 000
1 500 000
2 000 000
2 500 000
3 000 000
3 500 000
4 000 000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Worldwide in OECD in EU countries
in G20 countries in North America
Chart
C3.1
Number of foreign students
30. 45456September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
Distribution of foreign students in tertiary
education, by country of destination (2009)
Percentage of foreign tertiary students (reported to the OECD)
who are enrolled in each country of destination
United States
18.0
United Kingdom
9.9
Australia 7.0
Germany 7.0
France 6.8
Canada 5.2
Russian
Federation 3.7
Japan 3.6
Spain 2.3
New Zealand 1.9
Italy 1.8
China 1.7
South Africa 1.7
Austria 1.6
Korea 1.4
Switzerland 1.3
Belgium 1.3
Netherlands 1.2
Sweden 1.1
Other OECD
countries 6.0
Other non-OECD
countries 15.7
Chart
C3.2
31. 46466September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher Trends in international education market shares
Percentage of all foreign tertiary students enrolled by destination
0
5
10
15
20
25
UnitedStates
UnitedKingdom
Australia
Germany
France
Canada
RussianFederation
Japan
Spain
NewZealand
Italy
China
SouthAfrica
Austria
Korea
Switzerland
Belgium
Netherlands
Sweden
OtherOECD
Othernon-OECD
2000 2009
Chart
C3.3
Market share (%)
The figure for other non-OECD countries refers to
the part of the total foreign students studying in
other G20 and non-OECD countries and is obtained
after subtracting China, South Africa and the
Russian Federation from the total in non-OECD
destinations as estimated from UNESCO data.
32. 48486September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
Percentage of international students changing status and
staying on in selected OECD countries, 2008 or 2009
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Canada
France
CzechRepublic
Australia
Netherlands
Germany
UnitedKingdom
Norway
Finland
NewZealand
Japan
Ireland
Spain
Austria
Chart C3.5
%
Percentage of students who have changed their status (whether for work, family or
other reasons) among students who have not renewed their permits
33. 49496September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
Distribution of foreign students in tertiary
education, by country of origin (2009)
China, 16.5
India, 6.2
Korea, 3.8
Germany, 2.9
France, 1.6
United States,
1.6
Russian
Federation, 1.6
Turkey, 1.4
Canada, 1.4
Japan, 1.4
Italy, 1.3
Indonesia, 1.1Saudi Arabia,
1.0
Poland, 1.0
Other OECD
countries, 9.8
Other non-OECD
G20 countries,
1.3
Other non-OECD
non-G20
countries, 46.0
T C3.2
37. 56566September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
Share of private expenditure on tertiary
educational institutions (2000, 2005, 2008)
percentage, by level of education
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Chile
Korea
Japan
UnitedKingdom
UnitedStates
Australia
Israel
Canada
Portugal
Poland
Mexico
OECDaverage
NewZealand
Italy
Netherlands
SlovakRepublic
Estonia
Spain
CzechRepublic
France
Ireland
Slovenia
Austria
Germany
Sweden
Belgium
Iceland
Finland
Denmark
2008 2005 2000
Chart B3.3
%
38. 58586September2011
Globaltrendsinhighereducation
UUK,AndreasSchleicher
This chart does not
take into account
grants, subsidies or
loans that partially
or fully offset the
students’ tuition fees
Average annual tuition fees charged by tertiary-type A
public institutions for full-time national students
(academic year 2008-09)
Portugal (84%, 10 373), Italy (50%, 9 556),
Spain (46%, 13 928),
Czech Republic (59%, 8 738), Denmark (55%, 17 634), Finland (69%, 15 402), Ireland
(51%, 16 284), Iceland (77%, 10 429), Mexico (35%, 7 504), Norway (77%, 18 942),
Sweden (68%, 20 864)
Canada (m, 24 384)
New Zealand (78%, 11 125)
Japan (49%, 16 533),
Australia (94%, 16 297),
Netherlands (63%, 17 245)
United Kingdom1 (61%, 15 314)
Belgium (Fr. and Fl.) (m, m)
France (m, 14 945)
0
500
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
USD
Chart
B5.2
1. Public institutions do not exist at this level of education and most students are enrolled in government-dependent private institutions.
United States (70%, 29 910)
6000
Korea (71%, 10 109)
Austria (54%, 15 081), Switzerland (41%, 23 284)
You can see a similar relationship between skills and social outcomes. If you lack foundation skills, you are more likely to be in poor health, you are less likely to volunteer, you will have less of an understanding of political issues facing your country.
You are also less likely to trust institution and people and constantly think that others are taking advantage of you. You may ask why trust is so important but the bottom line is that there is no functioning democracy without trust in institutions and there is no functioning business relationship without trust in your partners and the rule of law. Afghanistan is an example for what financial capital can achieve in a country without a human capital base. You will also be less likely to reciprocate.
Finally, those with poor skills show also low levels of political efficacy, that is, they tend to believe that politicians do what they want and that they themselves have no influence.
Net entry rate and expenditure per student (in USD) in tertiary-type A programmes are added next to country names.
