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November 13

Dendroclimatology
Dr. Brian Luckman University of Western Ontario
“   Tree-ring-derived records have played a
    prominent role in a empts to establish how
    climate has varied in the recent past.
                                                         ”
                                          Jones et al.
                                  The Holocene, 2009
What characteristics of tree-ring records
        make them useful tools
    to understand ancient climates?
CLIMATE FROM TREES




TAKING THE PLANET’S TEMPERATURE




COMPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES
CLIMATE FROM TREES
2010 Jan-Aug temperature anomaly h p://www.giss.nasa.gov/
Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
THE PRINCIPLE OF AGGREGATE TREE GROWTH




 Ct = Rt - At - δD1t - δD2t - Et
THE PRINCIPLE OF
    CROSS-DATING
      THE PRINCIPLE OF
AGGREGATE TREE GROWTH
      THE PRINCIPLE OF
     REPLICATION

  STANDARDIZATION
      THE PRINCIPLE OF
ECOLOGICAL AMPLITUDE
      THE PRINCIPLE OF
    SITE SELECTION
How do we KNOW that tree rings are
   tracking a SPECIFIC climate?
Source: Minyoung Choi
Single-site reconstruction
rain gauges




                                           tree rings




Source: Hughes and Funkhouser, 1998
correlation The Pearson product-moment
correlation coefficient is probably the single
most widely used statistic for summarizing
the relationship between two variables.
variable ‘Y’
                              r = +1.0




               variable ‘X’
variable ‘Y’
                              r = -1.0




               variable ‘X’
variable ‘Y’
                          r = +0.85




               variable ‘X’
Ring-width
  index
CORRELATION
 FUNCTION
Source: St. George and Luckman, 2001
Ring-width
  index
Ring-width
  index
yt = axt + b + ε
the climate variable
of interest (at year t)



              yt = axt + b + ε

                     the tree-ring
                  variable (at year t)
Tree rings can provide extra-ordinarily good estimates (sometimes)




Source: Woodhouse et al., 2006
TAKING THE PLANET’S TEMPERATURE
Temperature-sensitive trees Northeastern Alaska
Long, temperature-sensitive tree-ring records have been used to estimate
                              average temperatures across the entire hemisphere or globe.




Source: Esper et al., Science, 2002
Source: Esper et al., Science, 2002
Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006
Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2006
Source: Osborne and Briffa, 2006
“   Tree-rings also allow the reconstruction of
    large-scale regional or global temperature pa erns
    defined by large networks of chronologies.
                                                                ”
                                                Brian Luckman
                                      Geoscience Canada, 2010
Source: Briffa et al., Global and Planetary Change, 2004
How do we KNOW that tree rings are
 any GOOD at “reverse predicting”
           past climate?
1883
“THE LOUDEST SOUND IN MODERN HISTORY”
Krakatau, Indonesia 1883
h p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/temmaps/
Mount Tambora, Indonesia Its eruption in 1815 was the most explosive since AD 180
1816
THE “YEAR WITHOUT A SUMMER”
h p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/temmaps/
Huaynaputina Peru
h p://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/temmaps/
Source: Briffa et al., Global and Biological Change, 2004
Photograph: Mark Anbinder
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
COMPLICATIONS AND CHALLENGES
“   Tree rings are not thermometers or rain gages.
                                                   Keith Briffa and colleagues
       Climate Variations and Forcing Mechanisms of the Last 2000 Years, 1996
                                                                                ”
THE
DIVERGENCE
  PROBLEM
Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
the ‘divergence problem’ is defined as the tendency
          for tree growth at some previously temperature-
          limited northern sites to demonstrate a weakening in
          mean temperature response in recent decades.




Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
Source: D’Arrigo et al., 2008
“   It is important to stress that not all high-latitude
    regions display this apparent decoupling
    between observed and dendroclimatically
                                                                   ”
    estimated temperatures.
                                       Phil Jones and colleagues
                                             The Holocene, 2009
Source: Briffa et al., Global and Biological Change, 2004
November 13

Dendroclimatology
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007
SURFACE TEMPERATURE
RECONSTRUCTIONS
FOR T HE LAS T 2, 0 00 Y E A R S


                     NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                               OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
“   Tree-ring-derived records have played a
    prominent role in a empts to establish how
    climate has varied in the recent past.
                                                         ”
                                          Jones et al.
                                  The Holocene, 2009
GEOG5839
  XT C L AS S
NE

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