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![“ SPECTRAL ANALYSIS ALSO SHOW
”
THAT SIGNIFICANT PERIODICITIES
OF ~11 YEAR, 54 YEAR, AND 204 YEAR PEAKS
[IN TREE-RING DENSITY RECORDS]
RESPOND TO
THE SCHWABE CYCLE,
THE FOURTH HARMONIC OF THE SUESS CYCLE,
AND THE SUESS CYCLE,
RESPECTIVELY.
Duan and Zhang, 2014
Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sco2ah9qtok5u8ltmezd-signature-26d013406cd07af1bd50c6b582a71555e836c510d7c33aebcbc04b64c55c6b9d-poli-141211162349-conversion-gate01/85/Guarding-against-false-discovery-in-large-scale-dendroclimatology-6-320.jpg)
![“ TUPELO HONEY YIELD-PER-HIVE
”
[RECONSTRUCTED FROM TREE-RING WIDTHS]
HAS OSCILLATED BETWEEN
MULTIDECADAL-LENGTH PERIODS OF LOW AND HIGH YIELDS
DURING THE PAST 211 YEARS
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION.
Maxwell et al., 2013
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/sco2ah9qtok5u8ltmezd-signature-26d013406cd07af1bd50c6b582a71555e836c510d7c33aebcbc04b64c55c6b9d-poli-141211162349-conversion-gate01/85/Guarding-against-false-discovery-in-large-scale-dendroclimatology-8-320.jpg)
Uploaded byScott St. George
Guarding against false discovery in large-scale dendroclimatology
This document discusses the significance of tree-ring data in understanding paleoclimate and paleoecology, emphasizing the relationship between tree growth and cosmic radiation as well as climate factors like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It highlights the necessity of addressing false discovery rates in the analysis of large-scale dendrochronology data, proposing approaches such as statistical simulations and forward modeling. The document underscores the importance of accurately interpreting tree-environment relations in the context of a vast global ring-width network.
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Guarding against false discovery in large-scale dendroclimatology
- 1. GUARDING AGAINST FALSEDISCOVERY IN LARGE-SCALE DENDRO CHRONOLOGY Sco! St. George University of Minnesota Understanding Uncertainties in Paleoclimate and Paleoecology: Age Models, Proxy Processes, and Beyond | December 18, 2014
- 2. 3ASSERTIONS BASED ON TREE-RING DATA
- 3.
- 4. “ … THEREWAS A CONSISTANT ” AND SIGNIFICANT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GROWTH OF THE TREES AND THE FLUX DENSITY OF GALACTIC COSMIC RADIATION. Dengel et al., 2009 New Phytologist
- 5.
- 6. “ SPECTRAL ANALYSISALSO SHOW ” THAT SIGNIFICANT PERIODICITIES OF ~11 YEAR, 54 YEAR, AND 204 YEAR PEAKS [IN TREE-RING DENSITY RECORDS] RESPOND TO THE SCHWABE CYCLE, THE FOURTH HARMONIC OF THE SUESS CYCLE, AND THE SUESS CYCLE, RESPECTIVELY. Duan and Zhang, 2014 Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres
- 7.
- 8. “ TUPELO HONEYYIELD-PER-HIVE ” [RECONSTRUCTED FROM TREE-RING WIDTHS] HAS OSCILLATED BETWEEN MULTIDECADAL-LENGTH PERIODS OF LOW AND HIGH YIELDS DURING THE PAST 211 YEARS AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION. Maxwell et al., 2013 Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
- 9. LARGE-SCALE GEOPHYSICAL PHENOMENA SMALL SETS OF TREE-RING WIDTH DATA
- 10.
- 11. JUNE TEMPERATURE JULYTEMPERATURE AUGUST TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE OCTOBER TEMPERATURE NOVEMBER TEMPERATURE DECEMBER TEMPERATURE JANUARY TEMPERATURE FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE MARCH TEMPERATURE APRIL TEMPERATURE MAY TEMPERATURE JUNE TEMPERATURE JULY TEMPERATURE AUGUST TEMPERATURE SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURE
- 12.
- 13.
- 14. There are morethan 3,200 publicly-available tree-ring records Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 (and many more held by individual investigators).
- 15.
- 16. “ … THEEXPECTED PROPORTION ” OF REJECTED LOCAL NULL HYPOTHESIS THAT ARE ACTUALLY TRUE. Wilks, 2006 Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
- 17.
- 19. Pinus Picea Pseudotsuga Quercus Larix A This map illustrates the reasonably-large subset of the North American tree-ring width network C 36ºN 18ºN records records B 54ºN 72ºN 90ºN 180ºW 120ºW 60ºW 0º 60ºE 120ºE 180ºW 2000 1000 12% 6% 0º Source: St. George et al., Geophysical Research Le!ers, 2013 analyzed by this study.
- 20.
- 21. -0.8 -0.6 -0.4-0.2 +0.2 +0.4 +0.6 +0.8 correlation coefficient (ring-width vs. climate)
- 23. (a) Winter precipitation WINTER PRECIPITATION Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
- 25. Fri!s, H.C. Growth-ringsof trees: their correlation with climate. Science 154, 973-975 (1966).
- 26. EL NIÑO SOUTHERNOSCILLATION
- 27. ENSO Source: St.George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
- 28.
- 29.
- 30. Source: St. George,Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014 ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION
- 31. PACIFIC/ NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN
- 32. (d) Pacific/North-American PACIFIC/NORTHAMERICAN PATTERN Source: St. George, Quaternary Science Reviews, 2014
- 33. ENSO PNA 475/2270 139/2270 records records
- 34.
- 35.
- 36. 3 POTENTIALLY-USEFUL APPROACHES TO ADDRESS THIS CHALLENGE
- 37.
- 38. Dr. Dave MekoUniversity of Arizona
- 40.
- 41. +200 0 precipitationanomaly (mm) -200 decadal target decadal ‘noise’ 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Source: St. George and Ault, Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres, 2011
- 42.
- 43. Dr. Eugene VaganovSiberian Federal University
- 44. Source: Vaganov etal., In Dendroclimatology, 2010
- 45. Synthetic tree-ring recordsgenerated by a forward model (and modern climate data) Can we predict how local trees should respond to weak or remote climate influences? oW 120exhibit largely the same spatial pa!erns in climate response as real trees. 60oW 0o 60oE 120oE 75oN 90oN SOIL MOISTURE : TEMPERATURE Source: Xiaolu (Grace) Li, Cornell University
- 46.
- 47. Pinus Picea Quercus Pseudotsuga Larix Nothofagus Austrocedris Phyllocladus Agathis Source: St. George, PAGES News, 2014 Because the global ring-width network is now so large, it is crucial to ensure our understanding of tree-environment relations is not influenced by decisions to include or exclude particular records.