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Ringing true: The scientific and societal relevance of dendrochronology at the start of its second century

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RINGING
TRUE
the scientific &
societal relevance
of dendrochronology
at the start of
its second century
Department of Geog...

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Tree-ring display at elementary school
Photograph:Tom Swetnam

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1929

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Ringing true: The scientific and societal relevance of dendrochronology at the start of its second century

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Tree rings and other natural archives empower us to extend our perspective on environmental change, resources, and hazards. But many contemporary applications of paleoclimatology and paleohydrology are useful because of the lasting disruption to our collective environmental memory caused by colonization.

Tree rings and other natural archives empower us to extend our perspective on environmental change, resources, and hazards. But many contemporary applications of paleoclimatology and paleohydrology are useful because of the lasting disruption to our collective environmental memory caused by colonization.

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Ringing true: The scientific and societal relevance of dendrochronology at the start of its second century

  1. 1. RINGING TRUE the scientific & societal relevance of dendrochronology at the start of its second century Department of Geography University of Nevada, Reno December 2, 2020
  2. 2. Tree-ring display at elementary school Photograph:Tom Swetnam
  3. 3. 1929
  4. 4. Source: National Geographic (1929)
  5. 5. A.E. DOUGLASS Source: Arizona State Museum
  6. 6. Source: National Geographic (1929)
  7. 7. DENDROARCHEOLOGY
 DENDROCHEMISTRY DENDROECOLOGY DENDROENTOMOLOGY DENDROGEOMORPHOLOGY DENDROHYDROLOGY DENDROPROVENANCING DENDROPYROLOGY DENDROSEISMOLOGY DENDROSILVICULTURE DENDROVULCANOLOGY
  8. 8. TREE RINGS + OTHER NATURAL ARCHIVES EMPOWER US TO EXTEND OUR PERSPECTIVE ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, RESOURCES, AND HAZARDS.
  9. 9. NOVEL GLOBAL SYNCRONY STRANGE & RARE SOLAR ACTIVITY THE ECOLOGICAL LEGACIES OF WAR
  10. 10. Tree-ring display at elementary school Source: Tom Swetnam
  11. 11. RINGS IN THE BRANCHES OF SAWED TREES SHOW THE NUMBER OF YEARS AND, ACCORDING TO THEIR THICKNESS, THE YEARS WHICH WERE MORE OR LESS DRY. “ ” Leonardo da Vinci
  12. 12. SAN JOSÉ | COSTA RICA
  13. 13. TREE RINGS MAY BE SIMPLE MEASURES OF A TREE’S BIOLOGICAL ACTIVITY, BUT THEY ARE NOT EASY TO INTERPRET AS DATING TOOLS, ENVIRONMENTAL PROXIES, OR INDICATORS OF FOREST HEALTH.
  14. 14. TOTAL RING-WIDTH EARLYWOOD WIDTH LATEWOOD WIDTH MAXIMUM LATEWOOD DENSITY !13C !180 !D TRACHEID SIZE
  15. 15. HOW MANY (COMPLETE) TREE RINGS ARE VISIBLE IN THIS MICROPHOTOGRAPH?
  16. 16. HOW MANY (COMPLETE) TREE RINGS ARE VISIBLE IN THIS MICROPHOTOGRAPH?
  17. 17. 1871 1872 1873 1874 Source: Dr. Dan Griffin, University of Minnesota
  18. 18. Source: Dr. Dan Griffin, University of Minnesota NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
  19. 19. CRATER LAKE NATIONAL PARK
  20. 20. 1809 1811 181218081807 Source: Sarah Appleton, University of Minnesota
  21. 21. BARK ‘MISSING’ RING
  22. 22. ±0
  23. 23. TREE RINGS + OTHER NATURAL ARCHIVES ENABLE US TO EXTEND OUR PERSPECTIVE ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, RESOURCES, AND HAZARDS.
  24. 24. ALEXANDER VON HUMBOLDT
  25. 25. SEVERAL EXAMPLES… SEEM TO CONFIRM THE IDEA THAT THERE ARE STILL TREES ON THE GLOBE OF A TREMENDOUS ANTIQUITY AND PERHAPS WITNESSES TO ITS MOST RECENT PHYSICAL REVOLUTIONS. “ ” Alexander von Humboldt Views of Nature (1808)
  26. 26. NOVEL GLOBAL SYNCRONY STRANGE & RARE SOLAR ACTIVITY THE ECOLOGICAL LEGACIES OF WAR
  27. 27. Source: David Mitchell SNOWSHOE HARE
  28. 28. ELTON (1924) ARGUED THAT CLIMATE ‘CYCLES’ SERVED TO SYNCHRONIZE THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SEVERAL ANIMAL SPECIES, INCLUDING SNOWSHOE HARE IN NORTHERN CANADA. Source: Elton, Journal of Experimental Biology (1924) 19001850 1860 1870 1880 1890 191018401830 RABBIT LYNX
  29. 29. A.E. DOUGLASS Source: Arizona State Museum
  30. 30. Source: NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory
  31. 31. THE MORAN EFFECT THE PHENOMENON WHEREBY SPATIAL SYNCHRONY IN POPULATION FLUCTUATIONS IS CAUSED BY CORRESPONDING SYNCHRONY IN SOME ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVER .
  32. 32. BUT IF SPATIAL SYNCHRONY IS WEAK… …WE NEED A HIGH NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS (THROUGH TIME) TO IDENTIFY THE EFFECT.
  33. 33. Source: Danny Margoles THE OLDEST DATED TREE IN MINNESOTA (AN EASTERN WHITE CEDAR) HAS AN INNERMOST RING OF CE 1452 (WHICH HAPPENS TO BE LEONARDO’S BIRTH YEAR).
  34. 34. 41
  35. 35. Source: Delgado Manzanedo et al., Nature Ecology & Evolution (2020) DURING THE PAST 50 YEARS, TREE GROWTH HAS BEEN MORE SYNCHRONOUS THAN AT ANY TIME IN THE PAST MILLENNIUM, AND THAT PATTERN IS CONSISTENT ACROSS MAJOR GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS.
  36. 36. NOTABLY, MANZANEDO ET AL. FIND THE OBSERVED RECENT INCREASE IN TREE GROWTH IS BEST EXPLAINED BY TEMPERATURE, WHICH SHOWS A RECENT RAPID RISE IN GLOBAL SYNCHRONY AS WELL. “ ” Lara Kueppers Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2020
  37. 37. THE ABERRANT GLOBAL SYNCHRONY OF PRESENT-DAY WARMING
  38. 38. UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER BETWEEN THE TENTH AND THIRTEENTH CENTURIES IS OFTEN CITED AS ONE FACTOR THAT ENABLED THE SHORT-LIVED NORSE COLONIZATION OF THE AMERICAS.
  39. 39. Source: Neukom et al., Nature (2019) EVEN WHEN WE PUSH BACK TO THE EARLIEST DAYS OF THE ROMAN EMPIRE, WE CANNOT DISCERN ANY EVENT THAT IS REMOTELY EQUIVALENT TO THE WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW DECADES.
  40. 40. Source: Neukom et al., Nature (2019)
  41. 41. Source: Empire, Trees, and Climate in the North Atlantic
  42. 42. NOVEL GLOBAL SYNCRONY STRANGE & RARE SOLAR ACTIVITY THE ECOLOGICAL LEGACIES OF WAR
  43. 43. 1859SEPTEMBER 1-2
  44. 44. Source: Rich Hoeg AURORAS WERE SEEN WORLDWIDE, LATER DESCRIBED AS “A SIGHT NEVER TO BE FORGOTTEN, AND WAS CONSIDERED AT THE TIME TO BE THE GREATEST AURORA RECORDED..."
  45. 45. PITCH-BLACK STORM-CLOUDS FURROWED BY BLAZES OF STRANGE RESPLENDENCE; IMMENSE FLAMING TONGUES AND BLINDING IGNEOUS GLOBULES THAT DISAPPEARED ONLY TO LIGHT BACK SECONDS AFTER, GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF A HUNDRED ERUPTING VOLCANOES. “ ” José Inés Ruiz Montería, Colombia (1859)
  46. 46. TELEGRAPH SYSTEMS ALL OVER EUROPE AND NORTH AMERICA FAILED, AND SOME OPERATORS COULD CONTINUE TO TRANSMIT MESSAGES EVEN AFTER DISCONNECTING THE POWER. Source: John Schanlaub
  47. 47. Source: Carrington, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society (1859) THE CARRINGTON EVENT OF 1859
  48. 48. THE TOTAL U.S. POPULATION AT RISK OF EXTENDED POWER OUTAGE FROM A CARRINGTON-LEVEL STORM IS BETWEEN 20-40 MILLION, WITH DURATIONS OF 16 DAYS TO 1-2 YEARS. “ ” Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Solar Storm Risk to the North American Electric Grid (2013)
  49. 49. HOW OFTEN IS EARTH AFFECTED BY CARRINGTON-TYPE GEOMAGNETIC STORMS?
  50. 50. 14C
  51. 51. DR. FUSA MIYAKE
  52. 52. Source: Miyake et al., Nature (2012) DR. MIYAKE DISCOVERED A RAPID 14C INCREASE FROM CE 774 TO 775 IN TWO JAPANESE CEDAR TREES, WHICH WAS NOT APPARENT IN THE STANDARD (10-YEAR AVERAGED) RADIOCARBON CURVE (RIGHT).
  53. 53. WE’D EXPECT THESE [SUPERNOVAE AND SUPERFLARES] TO BE GLOBAL EVENTS THAT WOULD APPEAR IN THE RADIOCARBON OF ANY LONG TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY AROUND THE WORLD. “ ” Kevin Anchukaitis National Geographic (2012)
  54. 54. Source: Iris & B. Gerald Cantor Center for Visual Arts at Stanford University
  55. 55. Source: Büntgen et al., Nature Communications (2018) IN 2018, ULF BÜNTGEN AND COLLEAGUES TESTED WHETHER THE CE 774 EVENT (AND A SECOND 14C SPIKE IN CE 993) COULD BE FOUND IN THE WORLD’S LONGEST TREE-RING CHRONOLOGIES…
  56. 56. Source: Büntgen et al., Nature Communications (2018) … AND TO EVERYONE’S GREAT RELIEF, EACH AND EVERY TREE-RING CHRONOLOGY TESTED IN THE NORTHERN (BLUE) AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE (RED) HAD THE SAME 14C JUMPS IN THE SAME YEAR!
  57. 57. Source: NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory
  58. 58. NOVEL GLOBAL SYNCRONY STRANGE & RARE SOLAR ACTIVITY THE ECOLOGICAL LEGACIES OF WAR
  59. 59. ALEXANDER VON HUMBOLDT
  60. 60. DR. CLAUDIA HARTL
  61. 61. KÅFJORD, NORWAY
  62. 62. LOCALLY ABSENT RINGS
  63. 63. BARK ‘MISSING’ RING
  64. 64. LOCALLY ABSENT RINGS ARE EXTREMELY RARE IN TREE-RING RECORDS FROM HIGH LATITUDES AND HIGH ELEVATIONS. “ ” St. George et al. Geophysical Research Le ers, 2013
  65. 65. WHY DID THESE HARDY NORWEGIAN TREES SHUT DOWN CAMBIAL ACTIVITY FOR ONE OR MORE YEARS?
  66. 66. Source: Hartl et al., Anthropocene (2019)
  67. 67. 1945
  68. 68. GERMAN TROOPS ENTER OSLO, 1940
  69. 69. THE SUPER BATTLESHIP TIRPITZ
  70. 70. THE SHORTEST MEMORANDUM WRITTEN BY SIR WINSTON CHURCHILL DURING THE SECOND WORLD WAR CONSISTS OF ONLY THREE WORDS: WHERE IS TIRPITZ? “ ” Memorandum to the First Sea Lord, Sir Dudley Pound December 14, 1942
  71. 71. FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY April 3 Operation Tungsten February 10-11 Soviet air raid 1 Source: Hartl et al., Anthropocene (2019)
  72. 72. Operation TUNGSTEN Apr 3rd 1944 ARTIFICIAL SMOKE TO PROTECT TIRPITZ
  73. 73. WHEN POURED INTO THE WATER, THE LIQUID TAKES THE PAINT OFF THE SIDES OF THE BOADS AND CAUSES THE PUTTY AROUND THEIR PORTHOLES TO FLAKE AND DROP OFF. “ ” Tactical and Technical Trends U.S. Military Intelligence Service, May 6 1943
  74. 74. 1945
  75. 75. TREE RINGS + OTHER NATURAL ARCHIVES ENABLE US TO EXTEND OUR PERSPECTIVE ON ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE, RESOURCES, AND HAZARDS.
  76. 76. Source: Christian Gries PASSAU, GERMANY
  77. 77. Source: Christian Gries
  78. 78. Source: Vivid Maps SETTLER POPULATION THROUGH TIME
  79. 79. 106 Source: J Hazard
  80. 80. WINNIPEG | CANADA
  81. 81. RED RIVER SETTLEMENT 1812
  82. 82. MAY 161826
  83. 83. THE WHOLE FACE OF THE COUNTRY, BOTH BELOW AND ABOVE OUR ENCAMPMENT IS COVERED WITH WATER, AND IN THIS WINDY WEATHER, LOOKS LIKE AN IMMENSE LAKE IN A STORM. “ ” Red River Journal May 1826
  84. 84. 1950
  85. 85. 1997 Source: Dr. Greg Brooks, Geological Survey of Canada
  86. 86. THE WINNIPEG FLOODWAY ($665M CDN)
  87. 87. 115 WINNIPEG | 750K SELKIRK | 10K 30KM/18MI
  88. 88. Source: The Canadian Press ORAL TRADITION AND ARCHEOLOGICAL EVIDENCE HOLD THE FORKS OF THE RED AND ASSINIBOINE RIVERS AS A KEY TRANSCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE POINT FOR FIRST NATIONS PEOPLES.
  89. 89. THE INTEGRITY OF THE UPPER LAYERS OF THE EXCAVATION SITE WERE DESTROYED BY RAILWAY DEVELOPMENT, MOSTLY OBLITERATING ANY RECORD OF THE FUR TRADE ERA. “ ” Thousands Of Artifacts Found At Canadian Museum Of Human Rights Site Winipeg Free Press, August 29 2013
  90. 90. Many contemporary applications of paleoclimatology and paleohydrology are useful because of the lasting disruption to our collective environmental memory caused by colonization.
  91. 91. Source: Ruth Bonneville / Winnipeg Free Press
  92. 92. Source: National Geographic (1929)
  93. 93. Source: Smithsonian Institution Archives NEIL JUDD, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC
  94. 94. @sco stgeorge

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