Reconstructing Climatic and Environmental Changes" FOIA Email 4.28.03

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HARVARD UNIVERSITY GAZETTE
was worse, researchers find
Global warming is not so hot 1003
By William J. Cromie
Gazette Staff
2002, and the unending winter of
The heat and droughts of 2001 and
wondering
2002-2003 in the Northeast have people natural
what on Earth is happening to the weather. Is there anything
about such variability?
for
at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center
To answer that question, researchers
heart of New
Astrophysics (CfA) - right in the the
England's bad weather - took a look at how things have changedtin
s of changes
past 1,000 years. They looked at studi
in glaciers, corals, stalagmites, and fossils. They checked
of ice caps and sediments lying
investigations of cores drilled out
se s. They examined research on
on the bottom of lakes, rivers, and
juik left over from old
pollen, tree rings, tree lines, and
: We are not living either in the
cultures and colonies. Their conclusio
n r in a time with
warmest years of the past millennium
the most extreme weather. Sallie Balianas argues that an increasing
role in the present
brightness of the sun plays a large
global warm-up. (Staff photo by Jon Chase)
during the past 1,000 years
This review of changes in nature and culture
was published in the April 11 issue of the Journal
jective observations of climate
of Energy and Environment. It puts su
dation. For
change on a much firmer objective fou than now in
example, tree-ring data show that te peratures were warmer
1100 A.D.
many far northern regions from 950 to
rm Period, many parts of the world
From 800 to 1300 A.D., the Medieval W
re ent
were warmer than they have been in
ng last winter) are generally much
decades. But temperatures now (includ
1900, the Little
milder than they were from 1300 to
Ice Age.
hers, along with colleagues from the
To come to this coclusion, CfA resear
and
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxid,
Global Change in Tempe, Ariz., and th Center for Climatic Research at the
than
University of Delaware, reviewed more
200 studies of climate done over the oast 10 years. "Many research
have
advances in reconstructing ancient climate time to pull
occurred over the past two decades, so we felt it was
for patterns of
together a large sample of them and look
Soon of CfA. "Clear patterns did
variability and change," says Willie
9/2/2003
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~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Pa
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trsfo 30t
rienced
regions worldwide exp
emerge showing that lower temperatrsfo130o
from 800 to 1300 and es."
higher temperatures during our lifeti
1900 than we have felt
Nature still rules
w rmiflg is more a
product of
Does this mean that the present global e jssions
of carbon dioxide But he does
natural changes than n won't go that far.
regurgitations? So that
and other industrial strong evidenc- and
say "there's increasingly the United Nations
including those of
previous research conclusions, concerning 20th
the United States government of natural
biased by underestimation
century warming, may have been line is that if these
The bottom climate fluctuations
climate variations. then, yes, natural
variations are indeed proven true, recent warming.
factor in the by 2002, then
could be a dominant on iecord, followed
(The year 1998 was the warmest year be more
natural factors could
2001.1 Tn other words, assumed."
important than previously climate during the
past 1,000
changes in Earth's
Willie Soon describes Age recently
caused The Little Ice
years, shifts that times (Staff photo by Jon Chase)
and a global warming in medieval
to computer
gs will contribute
believe their findi influences
Soon and colleagues natural and human
models that simulate better climate forecasts,
That should lead to
on climate more accurately. regional levels. Such
local and
including those on it easier to reach
international
forecasts, in turn, could help make of industrial
to control emis-ions of
agreements on treaties reason the administration
to global warminc. One
gases that contribute for not signing tie international
mush gives that sufficient
President di xide emissions is
1997 Kyoto Protocol to limit carbon global warming
about the cause of
scientific information
is lacking.
beaches
Vikings enjoy Greenland
of more
warmer times and decades
evidence exists fo
Plenty of anecdotal weather than we are
frigid and extreme
now experiencing.
the 16th
didn't exist during
and government fo ecasts
Extended television but many Flemish and Dutch
to 18th centuries, depicted severe
and He drick Avercamp,
artists, like Pieter Brueghel paint ngs.
in their
Little Ice Age winters
refers to the medieval
co-author of the study,
CfA's Sallie Baliunas', a of unusual w rming
Viking saga s as examples at the
colonies in Greenland
around 1003 A.D. "The Vikings established
millennium, but they she
beginning of the second climate turned colder,"
years later when the
died out several hundred exists that vineyards
notes. "And good evidence during the medieval
warmth."
flourished in Scotland and England
occurred not just
er and colder times
shows that the war world.
The evidence also places all over the
in Europe, but in and forward
t at can send us backward
Entered into computer simulations new
a matter of day5, the
hundreds of years in aid hindcasts of climate
much more
make forecasts
information should
accurate.
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Harvard College
and FellOws of
Copyright 2003 by the President
CBC NORTH
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