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Forecasting and Valuation
A CASE STUDY
Forecasting Financial Statements
Introduction to Forecasting
Preparing Financial Statement Forecasts
 General Forecasting Principles
 Seven-Step Forecasting Game Plan
 Practical Tips for Implementing the
Seven-Step Forecasting Game Plan
 Using Excel ® to Prepare Forecasted
Financial Statements
Step 1: Projecting Sales and Other Revenues
 Projecting Revenues from Sales
 Projecting Sales Revenues
Step 2: Projecting Operating Expenses
 Projecting Cost of Goods Sold
 Projecting Selling, General, and Administrative
Expenses
 Projecting Other Operating Expenses
 Projecting Nonrecurring Operating Gains and
Losses
Forecasting Financial Statements
Step 3: Projecting Operating Assets and Liabilities on the
Balance Sheet
 Projecting Cash
 Operating Asset and Liability Forecasting Techniques
 Projecting Marketable Securities
 Projecting Accounts Receivable
 Projecting Inventories
 Projecting Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets
 Projecting Investments in Non-controlled Affiliates
 Projecting Property, Plant, and Equipment
 Projecting Amortizable Intangible Assets
 Projecting Goodwill and Non-amortizable Intangible
Assets
 Projecting Other Noncurrent Assets
 Projecting Assets That Vary as a
Percentage of Total Assets
 Projecting Accounts Payable
 Projecting Other Current Accrued
Liabilities
 Projecting Current Liabilities: Income
Taxes Payable
 Projecting Other Noncurrent Liabilities
 Projecting Deferred Income Taxes
Forecasting Financial Statements
Step 4: Projecting Financial Assets, Financial Leverage,
Common Equity Capital, and Financial Income Items
 Projecting Financial Assets
 Projecting Short-Term Debt and Long-Term Debt
 Projecting Interest Expense
 Projecting Interest Income
 Projecting Bottling Equity Income
 Projecting Preferred Stock and Minority Interest
 Projecting Common Stock and Capital in Excess of Par
Value
 Projecting Treasury Stock
 Projecting Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss
Step 5: Projecting Nonrecurring Items,
Provisions for Income Tax, and Changes in
Retained Earnings
 Projecting Nonrecurring Items
 Projecting Provisions for Income Taxes
 Net Income
 Retained Earnings
Forecasting Financial Statements
Step 6: Balancing the Balance Sheet
 Balancing a Company’s Balance Sheets
 Closing the Loop: Solving for Co-determined Variables
Step 7: Projecting the Statement of Cash Flows
 Tips for Forecasting Statements of Cash Flows
 Specific Steps for Forecasting Implied Statements of Cash Flows
Shortcut Approaches to Forecasting
 Projected Sales and Income Approach
 Projected Total Assets Approach
Analyzing Projected Financial Statements
Sensitivity Analysis and Reactions to Announcements
Risk-Adjusted Expected Rates of Return
and the Dividends Valuation Approach
Introduction and Overview
Equivalence among Dividends, Cash Flows,
and Earnings Valuation
Risk-Adjusted Expected Rates of Return
 Cost of Common Equity Capital
 Adjusting Market Equity Beta to Reflect a
New Capital Structure
 Evaluating the Use of the CAPM to
Measure the Cost of Equity Capital
 Cost of Debt Capital
 Cost of Preferred Equity Capital
 Computing the Weighted Average Cost
of Capital
Rationale for Dividends-Based Valuation
 Dividends-Based Valuation Concepts
The Dividends Valuation Model
Implementing the Dividends Valuation Model
 Measuring Dividends
 Selecting a Forecast Horizon
 Continuing Value of Future Dividends
 Using the Dividends Valuation Model to Value a
Company
 Sensitivity Analysis and Investment Decision Making
 Evaluation of the Dividends Valuation Method
Valuation: Cash-Flow-Based Approaches
Introduction and Overview
Rationale for Cash-Flow-Based Valuation
Free-Cash-Flows-Based Valuation Concepts
 Risk, Discount Rates, and the Cost of
Capital
 Free Cash Flows Valuation Examples for a
Single-Asset Firm
 Cash Flows to the Investor versus Cash
Flows to the Firm
 Nominal versus Real Cash Flows
 Pretax versus After-Tax Free Cash Flows
 Selecting a Forecast Horizon
 Computing Continuing Value of Future
Free Cash Flows
Measuring Periodic Free Cash Flows
 A Framework for Free Cash Flows
 Free Cash Flows Measurement
Cash-Flow-Based Valuation Models
 Valuation Models for Free Cash Flows for
Common Equity Shareholders
 Valuation Models for Free Cash Flows for All
Debt and Equity Capital Stakeholders
Valuation: Cash-Flow-Based Approaches
Free Cash Flows Valuation of a Company
 A Company’s Discount Rates
 Computing Free Cash Flows for a Company
 The Company’s’s Free Cash Flows to All Debt and Equity Capital Stakeholders
 The Company’s Free Cash Flows to Common Equity
 Valuation of a Company Using Free Cash Flows to Common Equity Shareholders
 Valuation of a Company Using Free Cash Flows to All Debt and Equity Capital Stakeholders
 Sensitivity Analysis and Investment Decision Making
Evaluation of the Free Cash Flows Valuation Method
Valuation: Market-Based Approaches
Introduction and Overview
Market Multiples of Accounting Numbers
Market-to-Book and Value-to-Book Ratios
 A Theoretical Model of the Value-to-Book Ratio
 The Value-to-Book Model with Finite Horizon
Earnings Forecasts and Continuing Value
Computation
Application of the Value-to-Book-Model to The
Company
 Reasons Why VB Ratios and MB Ratios May Differ
From 1
 Empirical Data on MB Ratios
 Empirical Research Results on the Predictive Power
of MB Ratios
Price-Earnings and Value-Earnings Ratios
 A Model for the Value-Earnings Ratio
 Price-Earnings Ratios
 Summary of Value-Earnings and Price-Earnings
Ratios
 Using Market Multiples of Comparable Firms
Price Differentials
 How to compute the price differential
Reverse Engineering
 Reverse-Engineering The Company’s Stock Price
Training Desktop
 Date : please check it in at “futurum corfinan”
 Venue : Hotel at Jakarta Pusat
 Notes :
 Presentation slides will be distributed in softcopy
 Minimum participants = 10 persons
 After the training, participants are allowed to discuss about the training materials via
email in the website
 Contact email : futurumcorfinan@gmail.com
 Visit Website and Training Testimonials : google “futurum corfinan”

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Training FUTURUM : Forecasting and Valuation (Case Study), Jakarta

  • 2. Forecasting Financial Statements Introduction to Forecasting Preparing Financial Statement Forecasts  General Forecasting Principles  Seven-Step Forecasting Game Plan  Practical Tips for Implementing the Seven-Step Forecasting Game Plan  Using Excel ® to Prepare Forecasted Financial Statements Step 1: Projecting Sales and Other Revenues  Projecting Revenues from Sales  Projecting Sales Revenues Step 2: Projecting Operating Expenses  Projecting Cost of Goods Sold  Projecting Selling, General, and Administrative Expenses  Projecting Other Operating Expenses  Projecting Nonrecurring Operating Gains and Losses
  • 3. Forecasting Financial Statements Step 3: Projecting Operating Assets and Liabilities on the Balance Sheet  Projecting Cash  Operating Asset and Liability Forecasting Techniques  Projecting Marketable Securities  Projecting Accounts Receivable  Projecting Inventories  Projecting Prepaid Expenses and Other Current Assets  Projecting Investments in Non-controlled Affiliates  Projecting Property, Plant, and Equipment  Projecting Amortizable Intangible Assets  Projecting Goodwill and Non-amortizable Intangible Assets  Projecting Other Noncurrent Assets  Projecting Assets That Vary as a Percentage of Total Assets  Projecting Accounts Payable  Projecting Other Current Accrued Liabilities  Projecting Current Liabilities: Income Taxes Payable  Projecting Other Noncurrent Liabilities  Projecting Deferred Income Taxes
  • 4. Forecasting Financial Statements Step 4: Projecting Financial Assets, Financial Leverage, Common Equity Capital, and Financial Income Items  Projecting Financial Assets  Projecting Short-Term Debt and Long-Term Debt  Projecting Interest Expense  Projecting Interest Income  Projecting Bottling Equity Income  Projecting Preferred Stock and Minority Interest  Projecting Common Stock and Capital in Excess of Par Value  Projecting Treasury Stock  Projecting Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss Step 5: Projecting Nonrecurring Items, Provisions for Income Tax, and Changes in Retained Earnings  Projecting Nonrecurring Items  Projecting Provisions for Income Taxes  Net Income  Retained Earnings
  • 5. Forecasting Financial Statements Step 6: Balancing the Balance Sheet  Balancing a Company’s Balance Sheets  Closing the Loop: Solving for Co-determined Variables Step 7: Projecting the Statement of Cash Flows  Tips for Forecasting Statements of Cash Flows  Specific Steps for Forecasting Implied Statements of Cash Flows Shortcut Approaches to Forecasting  Projected Sales and Income Approach  Projected Total Assets Approach Analyzing Projected Financial Statements Sensitivity Analysis and Reactions to Announcements
  • 6. Risk-Adjusted Expected Rates of Return and the Dividends Valuation Approach Introduction and Overview Equivalence among Dividends, Cash Flows, and Earnings Valuation Risk-Adjusted Expected Rates of Return  Cost of Common Equity Capital  Adjusting Market Equity Beta to Reflect a New Capital Structure  Evaluating the Use of the CAPM to Measure the Cost of Equity Capital  Cost of Debt Capital  Cost of Preferred Equity Capital  Computing the Weighted Average Cost of Capital Rationale for Dividends-Based Valuation  Dividends-Based Valuation Concepts The Dividends Valuation Model Implementing the Dividends Valuation Model  Measuring Dividends  Selecting a Forecast Horizon  Continuing Value of Future Dividends  Using the Dividends Valuation Model to Value a Company  Sensitivity Analysis and Investment Decision Making  Evaluation of the Dividends Valuation Method
  • 7. Valuation: Cash-Flow-Based Approaches Introduction and Overview Rationale for Cash-Flow-Based Valuation Free-Cash-Flows-Based Valuation Concepts  Risk, Discount Rates, and the Cost of Capital  Free Cash Flows Valuation Examples for a Single-Asset Firm  Cash Flows to the Investor versus Cash Flows to the Firm  Nominal versus Real Cash Flows  Pretax versus After-Tax Free Cash Flows  Selecting a Forecast Horizon  Computing Continuing Value of Future Free Cash Flows Measuring Periodic Free Cash Flows  A Framework for Free Cash Flows  Free Cash Flows Measurement Cash-Flow-Based Valuation Models  Valuation Models for Free Cash Flows for Common Equity Shareholders  Valuation Models for Free Cash Flows for All Debt and Equity Capital Stakeholders
  • 8. Valuation: Cash-Flow-Based Approaches Free Cash Flows Valuation of a Company  A Company’s Discount Rates  Computing Free Cash Flows for a Company  The Company’s’s Free Cash Flows to All Debt and Equity Capital Stakeholders  The Company’s Free Cash Flows to Common Equity  Valuation of a Company Using Free Cash Flows to Common Equity Shareholders  Valuation of a Company Using Free Cash Flows to All Debt and Equity Capital Stakeholders  Sensitivity Analysis and Investment Decision Making Evaluation of the Free Cash Flows Valuation Method
  • 9. Valuation: Market-Based Approaches Introduction and Overview Market Multiples of Accounting Numbers Market-to-Book and Value-to-Book Ratios  A Theoretical Model of the Value-to-Book Ratio  The Value-to-Book Model with Finite Horizon Earnings Forecasts and Continuing Value Computation Application of the Value-to-Book-Model to The Company  Reasons Why VB Ratios and MB Ratios May Differ From 1  Empirical Data on MB Ratios  Empirical Research Results on the Predictive Power of MB Ratios Price-Earnings and Value-Earnings Ratios  A Model for the Value-Earnings Ratio  Price-Earnings Ratios  Summary of Value-Earnings and Price-Earnings Ratios  Using Market Multiples of Comparable Firms Price Differentials  How to compute the price differential Reverse Engineering  Reverse-Engineering The Company’s Stock Price
  • 10. Training Desktop  Date : please check it in at “futurum corfinan”  Venue : Hotel at Jakarta Pusat  Notes :  Presentation slides will be distributed in softcopy  Minimum participants = 10 persons  After the training, participants are allowed to discuss about the training materials via email in the website  Contact email : futurumcorfinan@gmail.com  Visit Website and Training Testimonials : google “futurum corfinan”