Capacity planning

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The demand of bandwidth is exploding irrespective to the global economic slowdown. It comes from new sources and new devices and the change is going fast. We must not forget to consider our fast-moving environment when telling our new story. These global trends affect us as a carrier. And at the same time our network and services are a part of making them possible.
Socialization of everything - Online socialization is changing the very basis for how people behave and interact. On an individual level, and in society at large.
Anywhereization - Wherever you are, you want instant access to everything, no matter where it is. As a global carrier we are keeping it all together
A flattening world - Today we see global access to knowledge that previously was limited to a chosen few – all made possible through connectivity. We support this for instance through our donations to the Wikimedia foundation, which runs Wikipedia.
The age of diversity - Access to network capabilities will come in many shapes and forms, with diverse business models coexisting for the foreseeable future.
Connecting the dots - We believe that every industry will eventually rely on connectivity to create value. The ones that best leverage the network will outpace their competitors.
The world is going online and it is the carriers that make it happen.
We have to optimize our network so that you can access anything, anywhere, anytime

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Capacity planning

  1. 1. Capacity Planning Make the best of your assets you have & Making them work for you effectively Mattias Fridström CTO, TeliaSonera International Carrier Delivery speed 299,792,458 m/s
  2. 2. TeliaSonera Lastupdated:April2013 Our footprint • 460 million population • 183 million subscriptions - 71.2 m consolidated - 111.8 m in associated companies
  3. 3. 3 Putting data centers at the core of the global network • Control and management of optical and IP • Two distinct core networks at duct level • Diversity at duct, cable and node level TeliaSonera International Carrier 01 July 2013
  4. 4. Exploding bandwidth
  5. 5. 5 Five trends shaping our world Anywhereization A flattening world Connecting the dots Socialization of everything The age of diversity The age of diversity Access to network capabilities will come in many shapes and forms, with diverse business models coexisting for the foreseeable future. Anywhereization Wherever you are, you want instant access to everything, no matter where it is. As a global carrier we are keeping it all together. Connecting the dots We believe that every industry will eventually rely on connectivity to create value. The ones that best leverage the network will outpace their competitors. A flattening world Today we see global access to knowledge that previously was limited to a chosen few – all made possible through connectivity. Socialization of everything Online socialization is changing the very basis for how people behave and interact. On an individual level, and in society at large. … with industry consequences 01 July 2013
  6. 6. Bandwidth demand is continuing to grow… 1996 2000 2003 2006 2010 2012 2015 Bandwidth Mbit/s Time • Base Internet usage • Peer-to-peer music sharing • IPTV • Video streaming • Video on demand • HD TV • 3D multiplayer gaming • Multiple streaming HD/3D TV • Mass market cloud services • Full scale 3D emulating • HD voice • Full 3D (real time & voice & 3D holograms) • More services that we can not even imagine today 3G 2G 4G VDSL2 ISDN DSL ADSL ADSL2+, VDSL 0.128 1-2 6-16 25-50 50-100 100-250 >250 Source: McKinsey • HD • Remote hosting • 3D TV and interactive solutions 6 01 July 2013
  7. 7. …it comes to us from new sources… 7 01 July 2013
  8. 8. New devices bring new traffic… 50 billion M2M connected devices are forecasted by 2020 8 01 July 2013
  9. 9. No link between economic slowdowns and growth of bandwidth demand (2006-2012) 01 July 2013 Dow Jones Index TeliaSonera International Carrier bandwidth …and irrespective of economic slowdowns 9
  10. 10. •Changes in the optical networking landscape
  11. 11. Applications Infrastructure (ducts, fibers, technical sites) Data Centers Backbone (”lit” equipment) Access network (fixed / mobile) Server farms Application / content providers Operators / service providers Regional / Global carriers Users Applications (and web browsers) fetch data from remote servers Each layer has value Online applications are dependent on each layer working with high bandwidth and Quality of Service 01 July 201311
  12. 12. Appetite for capacity drives fiber optical development Infinera DTN-X 2x500 Gb/s Tx PICs ‘Live’ 30 x 10Gb/s waves to 2x500 Gb/s super channels World’s First Terabit Trial Nov 2011 Total SP Bandwidth Usage Tb/s Source: Based onTelegeography data, 2011 Source: TeliaSonera International Carrier & Infinera, 2011 Source: TeliaSonera International Carrier & Infinera, 2012 01 July 201312 Data Rate 2.5G 10G 40/100G 500G 1Tb/s Enabling Technology Wavelengths Super-Channels Late 90s c2008 2012 2014
  13. 13. While others use ring or mesh diversity… • Traffic flows before and after link fault: 2013-03-07 Internal13 • Consequences in a fault scenario: – Significantly increased latency. – Some links carry more than twice the normal traffic. – Hot-potato routing to other providers means traffic flows can be hard to predict for all parties.
  14. 14. …We in TSIC use red/blue diversity • Exactly half of the capacity lost in case of a fault: 2013-03-07 Internal14 • Easy to understand consequences of a link fault. • Customers and peering partners get predictable traffic.
  15. 15. The “strange” Management Challenge 01 July 201315 During the ‘crazy days’ an enormous amount of fiber was installed 192 fibers per cable. The majority remain dark today. Despite this, Carriers are investigating additional fiber routes to support overlay designs. Its about designing in reliability and performance
  16. 16. Mapping between IP and transmission topology • IP and DWDM network topologies need to be in sync in order to build an efficient network. 2013-03-07 Internal16 But you don’t want to build an IP/MPLS topology like this ... ... on top of a transmission network topology like this:
  17. 17. New fiber routes 01 July 201317 To increase the mesh and allow for a true red and blue structure more fibers are needed The FLAP ring is just the start of this
  18. 18. Lifespan gets shorter on TSIC European DWDM systems. 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 First generation System capacity: 16*2,5G Regeneration length: ~700 km Full system: 40G Second generation Full system: 800G System capacity: 80*10G/(40G/100G) Regeneration length: ~1500 km (~700 km) Third generationFull system: ~2000G Fourth generation System capacity: 80*10G Regeneration length: ~700 km Full system: 9600G System capacity: 96*100G Regeneration length: ~1500 km
  19. 19. •Changes in the IP Ecosystem
  20. 20. • Listed Company Example – Personnel are in Norway – Customers are in Sweden – Internet servers are in Finland Personnel Customers Server towards Internet 01 July 201320 Borders are disappearing……but Connectivity is business critical. Storage is a big question mark
  21. 21. Public IP – who connects data centers? IPv4 (99.5%) IPv6 (<0.5%) • Some big names fall away • TeliaSonera International Carrier rises • Level3 ‘x2’ is mega-sized • Making ”the change” - not just network but DNS, routing, tools, reporting. • Users - still too few, and mainly large networks. Source: Internet Intelligence Authority Renesys for screenshots and blog commentary. Retrieved May, 2013 IPv6 is the answer. We all need to ”walk the walk” 01 July 201321
  22. 22. While Major players are building out dedicated data-centers and networks, carriers remain vital ISP 1 ISP 2 ISP 3 ISP 4 ISP 6 ISP 5 ”Internal backbone approach” ”CDN approach” X X X X X X X X XX TRENDS “Best effort” to everyone is not good enough anymore Some Carriers have already built massive networks. Why not let them build some more Those with fiber have all the capabilities needed Ownership of logotypes are respected and just used for illustrative purpose 01 July 201322
  23. 23. Outsourcing to optical operators – a new Business Model For carriers… …and content providers Photos: Wikicommons . Rostelecom Cup, Russia (left) and Facebook’s “like” symbol in Luleå, northern Sweden 01 July 201323
  24. 24. New big Datacenters have challenging requirements • ”Cold” places • Green energy ONLY • Politically stable countries • No seismographic activities • High power knowledge and experience This is not where the worlds fibers are 01 July 201324
  25. 25. Optical Transport Partner Requirements • Enable differentiation in a competitive market • Exceptional focus on customer experience • Technology leadership • Outstanding reliability • Quick deliveries 01 July 201325
  26. 26. The Cloud 01 July 201326
  27. 27. Online gaming – lessons for today’s cloud • Blizzard – ‘World of Warcraft’ – Since 2004 • Activision – ‘Call of Duty’ – Since 2004 – 1 million users online • Gaming – Highly interactive – High capacity storage – On demand – Global Access 01 July 201327
  28. 28. • After cloud “latency” is today’s buzz word • Latency has always been a factor – but not driven by the same needs – This leads to new ways of building networks Buzz words 01 July 201328
  29. 29. 29 Putting data centers at the core of the global network • Luleå – San Francisco 200ms • Hong Kong – London 130ms • Boden - Istanbul 30ms and new routes give better latency….. 01 July 2013
  30. 30. Demand for capacity remains strong - from corporate to consumer driven Opportunities for those that move fast - differentiating services in time adds value Datacentres should be located correct - power & cooling cost vital Summary 1 2 3 Infrastructure more important than ever - combination of fiber and IP Choose you allies carefully - customers and network spanning the globe 4 5 01 July 201330
  31. 31. Carrier of the future

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