Future of Voice - Gotcha!

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Future of Voice - Gotcha!
Presentation that Dean Bubley and Martin Geddes gave at the Future of Voice workshop. It explores the obstacles and challenges that may stifle innovation or impede the adoption of new voices services.

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Future of Voice - Gotcha!

  1. 1. Future of Voice Workshop Gotcha! 8th October 2013 Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com mail@martingeddes.com
  2. 2. What could possibly go wrong? Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013
  3. 3. Lots of things…   Battery life Poor UX      “Which browser tab is ringing” RF coverage/interference Microphones/earpieces/headsets Security Etc. Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  4. 4. There are trade-offs… vs Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  5. 5. Call quality: elephant in the room  US – voice in focus  Rural call completion  Verizon/VoiceLink  UK – regulatory change  New consumer broadband metrics  More than “speed”  EU – major debate  “Assured Oct 2013 services” Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  6. 6. Gotcha! Consumer broadband voice
  7. 7. Not all broadband is created equal… Example: Two different ADSL providers in the same location, same “speed” Great for voice Oct 2013 Poor for voice Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  8. 8. Bufferbloat & Active Queue Management Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  9. 9. A Recent Bad Skype Experience 1.8M/448k ADSL – wholesale 20CN Loss: 0.1%. Delay: 40ms-50ms 20M/2M Cable broadband Loss: <0.5%. Delay (one-way): 50ms-60ms, jumping to 500ms for a second or two, then back Oct 2013 10M/1M ADSL Business LLU Loss: Wandering from a typical 0%-2% up to as high as 48% for a second or two. Delay: 50-70ms Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  10. 10. Different speeds & characteristics SLOW & STATIONARY LOSS/DELAY Good Experience Bad Experience VERY FAST & VARIABLE DELAY Oct 2013 FAST & VARIABLE LOSS Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  11. 11. Voice quality depends on more than speed STATIONARITY Determines the chance that applications can adapt to the network Most stationary connection had the BEST Skype experience HIGH Fastest connection had the WORST Skype experience LOW SLOW Oct 2013 SPEED FAST Determines which applications are feasible Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  12. 12. Gotcha! Enterprise & Carrier Voice
  13. 13. Does over-provisioning work? Can we run a “converged” voice and data network?  How to capacity plan the system?  How to measure and manage voice quality?  Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  14. 14. Other “gotchas”  Assumed substitutability of IP transport   Capacity planning   Either uneconomic or ineffective; poor signalling/media interaction Call admission control   “Residual packet service time” problem is repeated service killer QoS   Edge/core, first/last 100 kbps, different media (they are not the same!) Unified Comms is brittle and prone to failure due to lack of CAC Measurement & management  Oct 2013 “Jitter”, “bandwidth use” are not direct QoE proxies Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  15. 15. The biggie: SLA composability    All the individual SLAs were met along the chain… …but the voice service doesn’t work! What’s wrong? We don’t live in TDM land any more! Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  16. 16. Other horrors (or opportunities…)  Ever more NAT/FW/middlebox latency & variability issues   Internet fragmentation – islands of (non)connectivity   IPv6 scaling issues on public Internet + rising routing overheads? Audio + video processing value chain    NFV/SDN may make things worse… Noise cancellation + suppression interactions Multi-bearer comms; media processing in the cloud Ecosystem shift - “climate change” - IT-isation   Oct 2013 Middle players (i.e. innovative telco suppliers) will get bought out Instability of supplier relationships Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  17. 17. Last (but not least…) Regulators Oct 2013 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013
  18. 18. Get in touch We can help you prepare for a world where voice is a feature, not a service. Find out more dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com twitter.com/disruptivedean www.disruptive-analysis.com Newsletter Oct 2013 mail@martingeddes.com Twitter.com/martingeddes www.martingeddes.com Newsletter Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd & Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

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