SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Initial Perspectives
Copyright © 2009 Future Agenda

www.futureagenda.org

Edited by Tim Jones and Caroline Dewing

Designed and typeset by Julie Bartram

All images sourced from iStockphoto

Sponsored by Vodafone Group Plc

All rights reserved. Permission should be sought from the copyright
owner before any part of this publication is reproduced, stored in a
retrieval system, or transmitted by any other means. Agreement will
normally be given provided that the source is acknowledged.

The copyright owner does not accept any responsibility whatsoever, in
negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from the
possession or use of this publication whether in terms of correctness,
completeness or otherwise. The application, therefore, by the user of
the contents of this publication or any part thereof, is solely at the user’s
own risk. The copyright owner furthermore expressly states that any
opinions given in this document are the opinions of the individual
authors which are not necessarily supported by the views of their
employers, the copyright owner or any company forming part of the
Vodafone Group of companies.

A CIP Catalogue record for this books is available from the British Library

ISBN 978-0-9549853-1-8

Printed in the UK

To keep the environmental impact of this document to a minimum, we
have given careful consideration to the production process. The paper
used in the production of this document is 55% recycled from de-inked
post consumer waste. It was manufactured at mills with ISO 14001
accreditation and printed in the UK by a FSC accredited supplier in
accordance with the ISO 14001 environmental management system.
Contents
Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group                  5

About Future Agenda                                 7


        Authenticity    Diane Coyle OBE             8

        Choice          Professor José Luis Nueno   14

        Cities          Professor Richard Burdett   20

        Connectivity    Jan Färjh                   26

        Currency        Dr. Rajiv Kumar             32

        Data            D J Collins                 38

        Energy          Leo Roodhart                42

        Food            Jim Kirkwood                48

        Health          Jack Lord                   54

        Identity        Professor Mike Hardy OBE    60

        Migration       Professor Richard Black     66

        Money           Dave Birch                  72

        Transport       Mark Philips                78

        Waste           Professor Ian Williams      84

        Water           Professor Stewart Burn      90

        Work            Chris Meyer                 96


Biographies                                         103




                                                          3
4
We have all heard enough to know we live in a world that is facing some significant, potentially life-threatening
challenges and yet, as a society, we lack clear direction and seem ill-prepared to do anything. What is evident
is that individual, corporate and even national action is not enough. Issues such as climate change, population
increase and the development of socio-economic infrastructures all require a co-coordinated, urgent and
focused approach.


The Future Agenda provides a forum for discussion on how to address the challenges we face and gives you the
opportunity to share ideas, visions and solutions and ultimately seed change by contributing to the debate via the
website www.futureagenda.org This booklet is the beginning of that discussion with experts from academia and
industry establishing initial points of view on a range of issues.

The opinions expressed in this document are not ours but those of independent experts whose views we respect
even if we don’t always agree with them. I thank them for their wholehearted support. They have important things
to say that should be of interest to anyone concerned with creating a sustainable future for us all.

Mobile technology can offer many socio-economic benefits but I believe that the most important contribution that
the industry can offer is the power to allow people to communicate. Never has a conversation been more important.

Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group




                                                                                                                     5
6
About Future Agenda
Supported by Vodafone Group, the Future Agenda is a unique cross-discipline programme which aims to
bring together thoughtful people from around the world to address the greatest challenges of the next
decade. In doing so, it is mapping out the major issues, identifying and debating potential solutions and
suggesting possible ways forward. We hope, as a consequence, that it will provide a platform for collective
innovation at a higher level than has been previously been achieved.


As the world responds to accelerating challenges, organisations are seeking to gain clearer and more informed
views of the future so that they can place intelligent bets in terms of business strategy and innovation focus. In
order to understand emerging opportunities, we believe organisations should look, beyond their traditional
horizons, and use new combinations of insight and foresight methodologies.

The Future Agenda programme has already gained the support of a range of corporate, government and third
sector organisations keen to share perspectives, challenge each others views and identify ways forward across
the topics being addressed. As all participants are free to use the material as a source for ongoing research and
innovation, we invite you to add your views into the mix to build and share a unique view of the future we need
to collectively address.




                                                                                                                     7
Diane Coyle OBE
    Founder, Enlightenment Economics and Member, BBC Trust




    Future of Authenticity




8
The Global Challenge


Authenticity has great salience in our times because new information and communication technologies have                     The technologies
greatly expanded the scale and scope of the inauthentic. For example, they have made identity fraud possible                 which seem to
                                                                                                                             protect the bad
and also playful; many of us now have multiple personalities online. When it is easy to choose an identity, what             guys - the identity
does that imply for the underlying reality? How do I know who I am, and how do you know who I am, and how                    thieves or
does my bank know who I am?                                                                                                  spammers -
                                                                                                                             also seem able to
                                                                                                                             lead repressive
It is now so easy to make imitations that the value of    communication in the past 20-30 years, copying and                 authorities to
the authentic has been enhanced. This phenomenon          sharing information has become easier and cheaper                  clamp down on
was pointed out by the critic Walter Benjamin long ago    than anybody of an earlier generation could have                   the good guys.
                                                                                                                             This is a genuinely
(in The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical              imagined - especially when so many goods and services              difficult dilemma.
Reproduction).   Furthermore, given the historically      are digitally delivered. Managing this explosion in
unprecedented declines in the cost of computing and       imitation is one of the real challenges of the digital age.




Options and Possibilities


People can be authentic or not.

Online identities can reflect the multiple ways we think about ourselves: A work and a home email; Several
different sign-ups for accounts; a Twitter account; perhaps Facebook profiles, or a character in World of
Warcraft. These are the benign possibilities. There are malign ones too. Thieves will seek our log-ins and
passwords to bank accounts. Malicious spirits will hide behind fake identities to spread rumours, attack other
people, incite violence even.

What are we to think about the cloak of anonymity online? It seems to encourage intemperate comments,
rudeness and viciousness in online forums. On the other hand, it is essential to protect whistleblowers, or
those who post information in a country affected by violence or a repressive regime. The technologies which
seem to protect the bad guys - the identity thieves or spammers - also seem able to lead repressive authorities
to clamp down on the good guys. This is a genuinely difficult dilemma.


Things can be authentic or not.

Fakes are proliferating in the online world. Fake         What’s more, the majority of reasonable people don’t
drugs are sold over the internet, to the great harm of    seem to believe there’s much wrong with intangible piracy
the customers. ‘Fake’ music, films, software are          - it’s a different matter in the tangible world of medicines
sold too, to the benefit of customers but not of          or aircraft parts. What is the authentic reality that the full
copyright owners. Piracy in this metaphorical sense       force of the law and the state should be protecting? After
is absolutely rampant.                                    all, an online copy of a song is no different from the original.



                                                                                                Future of Authenticity                        9
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




      The internet    Information can be authentic or not.                       Finally, experience can be authentic or not.
      and modern
 communications,      This has always been a fundamental issue in how we         Authenticity has an existential value. In rich countries,
       amplify the    navigate the world but is overwhelmingly important now     where most people have lots of stuff, experience is
      questions of
                      that so many people have access to so much                 more valuable. Activities that take time - ballooning,
      veracity and
  reliability which   information. The internet, modern communications,          cooking lessons, a holiday, book club meetings - are
      have always     amplify the questions of veracity and reliability which    considered good presents, treats. Representations of
      affected the    have always affected the mass media. Urban myths           experience have value too. Street style sells - as does
     mass media.
     Urban myths
                      move with the speed of light down fibre optic cables.      home made jam or hand-made crafts. But of course
   move with the      Rumours and incitements to violence are spread, as         being packaged and sold makes the authentic instantly
    speed of light    always, person to person - but each person can now         inauthentic.
       down fibre
                      reach many others, very quickly. A flash mob can be
     optic cables.                                                               These reflections contain an enormous range of
                      assembled either to dance in the streets of London or
                                                                                 challenges and trade-offs.
                      beat up and stab neighbours in Kenya.

                      The skill of verification has become fundamental. Can
                      you identify spam email? Can you recognise bias in
                      your source of news? Is Wikipedia a good source
                      for homework?




                      The Way Forward

                      A number of steps will have to taken so that we can establish some form of order in the digital world. These are

                      1) The establishment of credible, digital identities. This is essential for trust - and hence any economic and
                      commercial activity - online. But conversely it is equally important to protect privacy - and anonymity too where
                      it’s needed.

                      2) The protection of intellectual property in the online world while continuing to protect civic space, an
                      intellectual commons - what James Boyle has entitled The Public Domain in his recent book of this title.

                      3) The continued provision of widespread access to communications and information. This brings enormous
                      benefits especially to people largely excluded from the privileged information access of the past (libraries, print
                      media). At the same time we must build in verification mechanisms, ensuring the reliability of widely-accessed
                      online information.




10                    Future of Authenticity
The issues raised in all these different contexts are         the more so when it can be spread rapidly via the             The most effective
varied, and difficult. For some of them, it is quite likely   internet, email and mobile and potentially change             way to counteract
                                                                                                                            falsehoods in
that there will be many technology-based solutions            people’s behaviour. While SMS messages have been              future will
forthcoming in the near future.                               used to positive effect to spread correct information and     probably come
                                                              encourage positive action - as in elections from the          from the pooling
There are key areas where technology is already playing                                                                     of many
                                                              Phillipines to Zimbabwe - there were concerns that
a major role in authenticity: Digital Right Management                                                                      messages and
                                                              messages containing misinformation and lies were              reports so the
(DRM) uses technology to limit access to certain content
                                                              being used to encourage and incite the violence after         people can see
- technology having created the potential for access in                                                                     where there is a
                                                              Kenya’s December 2008 election. The most effective
the first place. Equally biometric identity uses technology                                                                 consistent story.
                                                              way to counteract falsehoods in future will probably
to limit the potential to form multiple identities. If my
                                                              come from the pooling of many messages and reports
avatar can always be traced back to the me of my DNA,
                                                              so the people can see where there is a consistent story.
is there any point in having it?
                                                              The aggregation of different sources - which can be
I predict technological ‘solutions’ will be commonplace       done using new social media applications such as
in the next few years. Sellers of content, government         Ushahidi - could be a powerful tool for verification.
agencies, airlines, and others will put up hurdles
                                                              For reasons of food safety as well as personal
designed to identify individuals. The world of ‘Minority
                                                              preferences - for organic food, or fair trade food perhaps
Report’ will lurch closer. But taken too far, this is a
                                                              - traceability has become an important issue. The
dystopia. The technologies ought to open up the world of
                                                              prototype Fair Tracing Project uses online maps to follow
information and creativity. If the full potential of the
                                                              products on their journeys from farmers to consumers.
information and communication technologies for the
                                                              Tracing will involve ‘tagging‘ individual products with
majority of people is to be recognized, technology can
                                                              information readily accessible by both producer and
not be used to build mechanisms which protect existing
                                                              consumer. The information that may be attached to
interests or structures and prevent change. ICTs are
                                                              tagged products is virtually limitless, beginning with
disruptive technologies. Printing was ultimately absolutely
                                                              details of the product’s date and cost of creation, as well
revolutionary - it’s why we all (in the rich west and many
                                                              as its individual creator and his/her working environment
other countries too) have an education and the vote. The
                                                              and pay, through the various steps of its transport
internet is revolutionary too. This is uncomfortable for
                                                              to the eventual point-of-sale to the consumer.”
those who were previously comfortable.
                                                              (http://web4.cs.ucl.ac.uk/students/v.shah/fairTracing/)
So although technology can certainly in the short or
                                                              Another example is Sourcemap, a new tool which
medium term clamp down on its own effects, it is at the
                                                              permits the researching and optimization of supply
expense of restricting some of the positive potential.
                                                              chains, using transparency to deliver sustainability.
In the longer term we need to look for better solutions.
                                                              (http://ow.ly/rgRs)
The most promising will depend on greater
                                                              Finally, online security and encryption are ways of
transparency of information and reputation. Here are
                                                              protecting personal information and safeguarding
some examples.
                                                              personal identity. That identity is created offline. The
Misinformation is dangerous in any context, including         likely next step in establishing identity is likely to be
misinformation spread via conventional media. It’s all        biometric technology which will link the physical person




                                                                                                 Future of Authenticity                    11
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




     The fact isthat   to the digital environment - a thumbprint pad on the          The fact is that virtual identity and "physical" identity
virtual identity and   computer screen, perhaps. But a person’s online,              are not the same thing, and they differ in ways that
"physical" identity
 are not the same
                       connected identity could potentially be impossible to         we    are   only    beginning     to   take    on   board.”
    thing, and they    copy when it consists, as it eventually may, of all the       (http://digitaldebateblogs.typepad.com/digital_identity
differ in ways that    accumulated patterns of their digital activities. Each        /2009/09/what-identity-is-important.html)
        we are only
                       individual’s activities and conversations and searches is
 beginning to take                                                                   Technological solutions are likely to need changes to
           on board    as unique as a fingerprint. Dave Birch, who runs the
                                                                                     social and legal institutions as well. Thus it is feasible to
                       Digital Identity Forum, says in a recent blog post: “the
                                                                                     imagine identifying a person through the pattern of their
                       "common sense" notion of identity, rooted in our pre-
                                                                                     communications and online activities, but this ability will
                       industrial social structures and pre-human cortex, is not
                                                                                     be irrelevant unless government authorities in particular
                       only not very good at dealing with the properties and
                                                                                     will accept alternatives to the present paper-based
                       implications of identity in an online world, but positively
                                                                                     proof of legal identity.
                       misleading when applied to system and service design.




12                     Future of Authenticity
Impact and Implications


The journey is unlikely to be easy. A comparison between the valuation of any company and its physical assets           There will be
shows that the vast majority of value in the economy is intangible and based on an understanding of what it             an ‘arms race’
                                                                                                                        between efforts
is - whether or not it is authentic. Intangible value can evaporate overnight - and we’ve seen many examples            to market
of that, for instance in banking recently, in the case of Enron before that. This makes reputation everything,          products or
and the only way to sustain a reputation is to live it constantly.                                                      create or shape
                                                                                                                        a reputation and
                                                                                                                        resistance to
Reputation is fragile - taking time to build but able       The triangulation of information from different sources     any message
to vanish overnight - it and will be more robust the        will become an essential skill, an aspect of ‘media         which is not
more it is the product of personal experience and           literacy’ without which consumers and citizens will be      wholly authentic.

recommendations. Personalization will, paradoxically,       unable to navigate daily life.
become     increasingly   important   even    as   new
                                                            Trusted guides will come to play an increasingly
technologies stretch the range and geographical spread
                                                            important role. These could be social networks, media
of connections between people.
                                                            organizations, certain connected and well-informed
However, there will be an ‘arms race’ between efforts       individuals, or companies or other organizations. For
to market products or create or shape a reputation and      these guides, too, reputation will be all-important and
resistance to any message which is not wholly               will require constant vigilance.
authentic. This is a pattern familiar from the world of
                                                            A long, collective conversation about authenticity, in at
fashion: the cool people move on from a certain style as
                                                            least some of its aspects, is needed. Personal identity,
soon as many others take it up because it’s cool. We
                                                            verification of information, piracy - there are huge
can already see this expansion of the dynamics of
                                                            challenges in this list. They will be best addressed by
fashion in the evolution of social networks as means of
                                                            creative thought about the potential of the technologies
word-of-mouth recommendation. Trends such as
                                                            which are amplifying the challenges of authenticity to
Facebook or Twitter are subsequently taken up by
                                                            provide solutions too.
companies and other organizations as a means of
conveying messages, but this ‘official’ and inauthentic
use of a social medium in turn leads to resistance
amongst users of networks who move on to another
online location.




                                                                                               Future of Authenticity                   13
Professor José Luis Nueno
     IESE, Barcelona




     Future of Choice




14
The Global Challenge


The world has changed: Product supply and demand is globalized and there is no putting the genie back in                      Consumers are
the bottle. The flow of goods from Asia to the west has created an economic dependency over the past ten                      making a trade-off
                                                                                                                              in a smart
years that will be exploited over the next ten. As China and India and other fast-developing economies become                 way and cost
the primary global marketplaces, the needs and wishes of the 4bn new consumers will dominate those of the                     is winning.
800m old ones in the US and Europe. The days where the US set the pace in the consumer mindset are over
and this is not going to change.


In addition, choice is being threatened from the                Why should we continue to build brands when China
expropriation of freedom of choice launched from                and India can buy them ready-made off the shelf? Just
regulators, media, and the general public. Tobacco,             as Lenovo bought IBM and Tata bought Jaguar Land
candy, alcoholic beverages, speed, late hours,                  Rover, with the financial reserves now available, why
advertising, food… all are being subject to regulation          should any established brand not be for sale? The
that limits choice and how we get to know about it.             Chinese production model is all about the right products
                                                                - good quality at a low price and the brand is a
The way forward is for all to get used to the new world
                                                                secondary issue. Yes, there is the luxury sector - the
and operate by the new rules. While a few of the usual
                                                                Gucci, Prada, Louis Vuitton segment of the fashion
suspects may put up national or regional protectionist
                                                                industry and its like in electronics and automobiles, but
barriers, the realities of global trade are all too clear and
                                                                that is, by its very nature, niche - and increasingly Asian
we can see the end of variety. In fact we can see a
                                                                in production. Moreover, culturally intensive products, a
changing     balance     between     variety    and    cost.
                                                                traditional refuge of variety, are under threat by
Consumers are making a trade-off in a smart way and
                                                                consumer unwillingness to pay.
cost is winning. We therefore face the challenge of how
to deal with a reduction in the number of options in the        In the next ten years I see the rise of Asian retailing
categories of consumption but an expansion in the               driven initially by the sheer size of the associated
number of categories.                                           domestic markets and then a move into the
                                                                international arena. The Aldi model will win over the
Hypermarkets and department stores will all struggle in
                                                                Wal-Mart one, but what about a Chinese Aldi selling
the next decade: They may reduce their product mix
                                                                products made by a Chinese P&G? Who could
down from 26000 SKUs (stock keeping units) to 16000,
                                                                compete against that combination? I believe that this
but continuing to provide consumers with such choice is
                                                                will occur without any significant backlash. Consumers
unsustainable when discount stores only have to provide
                                                                will follow the mainstream and quickly get used to less
1000 SKUs - an increase in the assortment from the 800
                                                                choice given the benefit of lower cost. This will apply
they offer today. Commoditization is the way forward for
                                                                across the board.
the mainstream majority and in many sectors this will
mean a race to the bottom in terms of margins.                  The only categories where I see an alternative future
Department stores need a continuous stream of new               are those that are affected by time; perishable products
ideas and innovation to keep their mix fresh and so attract     (food), live content (broadcast) and extreme time to
high-end consumers, but in a world of less variety where        market goods (those that respond to latent consumer
high quality, low cost Asian products dominate, why will        needs) will be relatively immune. Indeed, if the quality
the majority seek out the niche brands?                         of the staple products is to improve and local production




                                                                                                        Future of Choice                      15
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




  We can foresee    increases to ensure security of supply, we can see             destinations, or hundreds of lifestyle drugs. We will see
 a world in which   rising costs on the horizon - but still with less variety of   more of these and, in addition, many disruptive and
   Zara and H&M
         are more
                    choice. In 2020 how many of us in Europe will eat              complex new products, services or solutions will grab
  successful than   strawberries in December?                                      the attention of an already over-solicited and less
 Gap and Neiman                                                                    affluent consumer. As the number of categories
     Marcus and     Choice will also be limited by our ability to process
                                                                                   expands, choice will have to be shared among, rather
   the Aldi model   information. Ten years ago we did not have MP3s,
    wins over the                                                                  than within, categories of consumption.
                    PVRs, thousands of interesting websites, travel
   Wal-Mart one.




                    Options and Possibilities


                    With the certainty that variety will lose out to speed and cost, we can foresee a world in which Zara and H&M
                    are more successful than Gap and Neiman Marcus and, as mentioned earlier, the Aldi model wins over Wal-
                    Mart one. Hypermarkets and department stores will lose out to discount stores and the speed merchants. This
                    is clear. The shape of retailing has changed and the consequences over the next decade will be driven by a
                    clear-out of the also-rans.


                    One likely development is in the food sector which is          increasing health costs and long-term disease risks, I
                    fast-becoming the tobacco of the 21st Century. We are          see that regulators will act. The industry will have to sort
                    progressing towards a model where no single                    itself out and we will see more transparency on
                    organization can have as much influence as they have           ingredients. More variety in food is nonsense. We will
                    had in the past and we will become accustomed to a             see a shift to less. Less choice maybe better and
                    restriction in our freedom of choice. As suggested             hence, by 2020, again I see less choice within
                    previously, the obesity epidemic has not been                  categories but more choice between categories. This
                    adequately moderated by the food industry and so               will benefit the leading companies (a winner takes all
                    governments will increasingly intervene to limit choice.       proposition) as well as the most flexible, pragmatic, and
                    Healthier foods will cease to be an option but instead         adaptive followers.
                    will become the norm. Portion size will be reduced and
                                                                                   The other certainty I see is a reduction in the number of
                    low fat and low salt will be the new default standards.
                                                                                   players within each category. The top mega-brands will
                    Although some companies, such as Mars and Coca-
                                                                                   survive as will some of the most efficient non-brands.
                    Cola, have been proactive in cutting back on advertising
                                                                                   But there will be a clear out of the middle market - the
                    and taking away vending machines from within schools,
                                                                                   me-too brands will become ex-brands and will disappear.
                    and PepsiCo especially has shifted towards lower fat
                    products, the majority of the food sector has not made         Some may see that there is uncertainty in how
                    a sufficient move over the past decade. So, faced with         consumers will react to less variety. I see that, if they




16                  Future of Choice
are not given so much choice, the mainstream majority      who will be interested in the hundreds of non-electric     Europe with
will follow where they are led. Take, for example, what    alternatives? Regulation, public opinion and financial     around 200m
                                                                                                                      active consumers
will happen when the first Renault, Citroen and VW         incentives will all accelerate the migration of the        will become a
electric cars are launched into the European market in     consumer vehicle fleet to electric and we will not care    secondary
2012. When consumers are given an option to buy one        about the reduction in choice.                             influence to
                                                                                                                      Asia with 4bn.
of, say ten efficient, zero emission, zero-tax vehicles,




 The Way Forward


Given the impact of the global downturn, in the retail arena I don’t think that we will be returning to a business
as usual world. Consumer attitudes have changed to shift many of us away from wanting increased variety.
In addition, the framework within which we consume has changed: Governments, the big brands, the
acceleration of China and retail efficiency are all creating a new landscape within which our choice will become
more limited: Less will be less not more. Variety is increasing across categories not within them.


Over the next ten years we will see a reduction in the     supermarkets like Aldi demonstrates, variety will be
number of players per category. As variety is reduced      substituted by budget. I see that, in the forthcoming
and commoditization increases, only the #1 and #2          decade, many retailers will struggle to compete and fall
brands will survive. So what about #3, #4 and #5? The      down in between the leaders in providing low cost
playing field for the future will be increasingly          commodites and trend setting. As the continued growth
determined by whoever sets the standards. And the          of fast-fashion chains such as Zara and H&M reveals,
standards will be set by the category leaders and the      providing a limited but fast-changing product range is
biggest marketplaces - the US, China and India - it is     more profitable that holding a broad portfolio to cover
a numbers game. Europe with around 200m active             the full range of potential consumer choice. We have
consumers will become a secondary influence to Asia        now entered a world in which the distinction between
with 4bn. Therefore, as products and services are          prediction and following of trends has become blurred.
configured to meet the global consumer, who will be        Given the speed with which Zara changes its product
increasingly Asian, the variety of choice will become      mix, we are no longer certain whether media leads
less influential than scale and speed of delivery.         fashion or vice-versa. But who leads who is irrelevant
                                                           when we, as consumers, don’t have to choose. The
Back in the 1950s William Starbuck developed one of
                                                           decisions about what we can buy are made for us and
the few ideas in retailing to have lasted: Every retail
                                                           so variety again reduces. The most important capability
model is substituted by a more efficient one. This has
                                                           for any manufacturer seeking a decent margin will be
been the case for the last 50 years and I see no reason
                                                           the ability to produce faster than the diffusion of a
for change in the future. As the success of discount
                                                           trend. Scale will dominate over choice.




                                                                                                 Future of Choice                   17
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




     It may seem     In addition, we are facing greater intervention of an        reduction in variety in the consumption of products
  counterintuitive   increasing number of influential bodies and groups           and services. As they have in the past impacted
        but fewer
 choices provide
                     into the world of retailing which will all align to reduce   alcohol and tobacco, so in the next decade they will
    higher levels    our freedom of choice. The media, public opinion and         impact other areas of consumption from food and
   of satisfaction   government regulation are moving us towards a                fashion to transport.




                     Impacts and Implications


                     As variety reduces some may question whether consumers will miss the old days. I don’t believe so. Some
                     of our recent research at IESE has explored choice from a number of dimensions. It may seem counter-
                     intuitive but fewer choices provide higher levels of satisfaction: People like to have lots of variety, but when
                     faced with too many choices, we tend to vacillate and delay decisions. We may want 31 options instead of
                     six, but we find it easier to choose one of six than one of 31. In a series of experiments with men and women
                     from a range of different cultures we found that the greatest level of satisfaction, both with the final choice
                     and the decision-making process, was reached when people chose from an intermediate number of
                     alternatives as opposed to large or small choice sets. These findings have practical implications for people
                     offering many choices to customers, consumer and employees today. Going forward, I see that this supports
                     my notion that we will see little consumer backlash against a reduction of variety.


                     Moving to the wider impacts of how I see the future of       path or finding their own way forward which creates and
                     choice, it is clear that, although some may see my view      sustains a unique position in the marketplace. Yes, my
                     as being a little negative from a Western perspective, it    views on choice and the mainstream may sound alarm
                     does highlight the dynamics at play across the retail        bells for many in the middle market today, but they
                     environment of the next ten years. As we are cognizant       should also provide a stimulus for others to think
                     of a world in which less variety is the predominant shift    differently about the new competitive landscape.
                     for most, if not all, categories, then, as manufacturers
                                                                                  The future of choice is about less variety, but this does
                     and retailers, we can prepare ourselves for a new
                                                                                  not mean less interest. The products that will succeed
                     paradigm.    With    good    quality,   low-cost,   mass
                                                                                  in the future will be the ones that offer global customers
                     commoditization the norm for the mainstream, we either
                                                                                  what they want, even if it is before they have recognized
                     need to compete on these terms or else migrate to the
                                                                                  what that is. The successful retailers of the future will
                     margins. I have highlighted the successful approaches
                                                                                  provide consumers with a smaller portfolio of products
                     taken by Spanish Zara and Swedish H&M in the fashion
                                                                                  than their predecessors did in the past, but the portfolio
                     industry where they have both developed fast-fashion
                                                                                  will be higher selling products. Less variety means fewer
                     as a core capability. There is nothing to stop other
                                                                                  SKUs but fewer SKUs mean more efficient retailing.
                     companies in other categories from following the same




18                   Future of Choice
The future of
choice is about
less variety,
but this does
not mean less
interest.




                  19
Professor Richard Burdett
     Centennial Professor in Architecture and Urbanism, London School of Economics




     Future of Cities




20
The Global Challenge


The big issues facing cities are clear: Think globalisation, immigration, jobs, social exclusion and sustainability:      Although cities
Given that global urbanisation is taking place at an unprecedented speed with a scale, diversity, complexity              themselves have
                                                                                                                          a remarkable
and level of connectivity that challenges all existing perceptions, questions regarding the size, speed of growth,        ability to innovate,
shape and land use of cities have become increasingly complex and politicised. Although cities themselves                 there are broad
have a remarkable ability to innovate, there are broad disconnects between urban change and urban policy.                 disconnects
                                                                                                                          between urban
The priority, therefore, must be to identify ways in which policy makers can create a regulatory environment
                                                                                                                          change and
that provides a framework for sustainable forms of urban development.                                                     urban policy.


Urban growth is being fuelled by new levels of mobility     Even the most advanced firms need cleaners, lorry
and migration of diverse populations within and across      drivers, and secretaries. How must cities adapt to fit
nations especially in China, Brazil and India. These        the needs of all? Also how do we adapt to the possibility
rural-to-urban migrants are pulled by the tantalizing       that we are seeing an internationalised labour market
prospects of jobs and opportunity, driven by the harsh      for low wage manual and service workers? How do we
realities of rural life. Cities like Mumbai experience 42   adapt housing design and create neighbourhoods that
people moving into the city per hour. Where do you          will benefit local communities and encourage urban
house them and what infrastructure do you provide for       integration?
them? Transport, electricity, sewers and water systems
                                                            Technological innovation has shrunk the world reducing
- these are technical issues that need to be addressed
                                                            the cost of transmitting to virtually nothing. Internet
in a way that is environmentally smart.
                                                            users in developing countries could constitute more
Migration and in-migration has also created an urban        than half the world total within 5 years if trends persist.
underclass which is often allocated to specific areas of    The reality of urban connectivity taken to its logical
the city. Paris is a perfect example. The physical          conclusion will create a network of interlinked cities
infrastructure, with the beauty and qualities that we all   connected, and soon to be even more connected, by
admire, has frozen. This means that all its growth (with    modern rails and technology. Consider also the effects
increasing immigration from 1945 and onward) has            of mobility and transport systems on social cohesion
created ghettoization. This kind of imbalance in social     and economic viability.
mobility must be addressed.
                                                            Lastly, any future urban model must of course be
The changing nature of work will also impact on the         sustainable. If we are to make up for past failures,
physical form of cities. The global economy was born        cities will have to produce more energy than they need,
out of the power of trans-national corporations and         become net carbon absorbers, collect and process
global communications technologies. How does it affect      waste within city limits and collect and clean recycled
the way we live? If we focus on the fact that power         water. All this should happen in parallel to the creation
and communications capacities need to be produced,          of wealth and the promotion of social wellbeing and
implemented and managed, it becomes clear that cities       individual health.
still have an important role to play but their layout and
functionality may be different.




                                                                                                      Future of Cities                     21
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




                      Options and Possibilities

    Can planners      Can planners adapt with sufficient speed to create policies which address the challenges we face? There
        adapt with    seems to be a disconnect between the complexity of challenges of the urban age and our current set of urban
  sufficient speed
to create policies
                      solutions. Planners and urban governance must consider re-evaluating how they address the problems they
   which address      face and consider multi-dimensional, integrated interventions rather than specific policies covering specialised
   the challenges     issues (education, health, housing etc). If, for example, housing is going to be a platform for opportunity, then
          we face?
                      housing policies must connect with education, transportation and childcare; if transportation is going to
  There seems to
 be a disconnect      promote mobility and advance sustainability, then transportation policies need to expand choice and embrace
      between the     dense, transit rich corridors of mixed residential, retail and employment use. Ultimately, to be successful, we
     complexity of    also need to share innovations across networks of urban researchers, practitioners and policy makers across
challenges of the
                      the developed and developing world.
   urban age and
   our current set
      of solutions.   We should also consider how we manage the dramatic          Can cities address the environmental crisis of global
                      upturn in immigration and address the fight against         warming and climate change? Rapid urbanisation has
                      poverty. One billion people live in disease spreading       no doubt exacerbated environmental pressures but
                      slums characterized by inadequate housing, unsafe           cities offer the best promise of developing in ways that
                      drinking water and open sewer systems. This makes           are environmentally sound and energy efficient - a pre-
                      the builders of informal housing the largest housing        requisite of global prosperity. The need is to develop
                      developers in the world and it is they who are              carbon reduction policies - such as London’s
                      creating the cities of tomorrow. We can plan for this       congestion charge, for example, at the same time as
                      “unplanned” inevitability. There are already noticeable     improving infrastructure. This is why the planners in
                      success stories; take for example Ciuadad Neza in           London are focusing on improving the transport
                      Mexico City where, as hundreds of thousand                  infrastructure and have committed to reduce C02
                      immigrants arrive each year, an open-ended and              emissions by 60% by 2050 focussing on existing
                      networked community is succeeding in establishing a         housing stock which accounts for nearly 40% of
                      lively economy out of literally nothing. Yet cities offer   today’s emissions.
                      the promise of ultimately connecting hundreds of
                      millions of workers to the expanding job opportunities
                      offered by the global economy.




22                    Future of Cities
Proposed Way Forward


You can become very depressed about cities of the future when you look at all the challenges facing us.                       There is little
But, the more I go and visit cities and through the work we do at The London School of Economics, the more                    doubt that, seen
                                                                                                                              through the lens
I think that there are solutions. They depend on people rather than policies - it could be a mayor making a                   of efficiency,
decision or a community activist.                                                                                             more densely
                                                                                                                              populated,
                                                                                                                              compact cities
New Delhi, for instance, holds 13-14 million people           series of young men and women who have worked
                                                                                                                              such as Hong
depending on the time of day. It used to have the             together to create a communal bathroom (toilet).                Kong and
highest pollution rates in the world but then overnight all   Where people don’t have water and don’t have toilets,           Manhattan are
the auto-rickshaws and the buses were made to change          this place is important because it’s where people meet.         inherently more
                                                                                                                              sustainable
from diesel to natural gas. If you can use natural gas in     They have created a moment of pause in the city. This           places to live
New Delhi, then why can’t you use it everywhere?              is one of many projects that I saw in Mumbai, New               than the likes of
                                                              Delhi and elsewhere which are fantastically powerful            Houston and
In London we use congestion charge, which is very                                                                             Mexico City.
                                                              and are done by individuals.
effective in re-prioritizing the traffic. There are clear
environmental benefits but a radical social difference is     Cities are often at the forefront of the delivery of cultural
a 100% increase in bus use by the middle class. If you        richness In Mexico city, for example, there is a fantastic
get the middle class onto public transport you are            initiative which is called the ‘Fallon’, The Lighthouse,
winning, and that’s a great example.                          signifying hope; a stunning project designed by an
                                                              architect called Callas. Next to it is an area of
Tokyo is the largest city in the world. Its transport
                                                              approximately a million people living under the poorest
system, integrated by overhead and underground rail
                                                              conditions, a lot of them using the nearby rubbish tip as
systems, means that the average commute is around
                                                              a way of living, recycling whatever is there, living at the
one hour. Compare that to Los Angeles where the
                                                              bottom. The Lighthouse is a cultural centre where kids
average commute is about two hours and at least 80%
                                                              learn how to paint and do art. Mexico City is a city of
of the population takes the car to work. In Tokyo, 80%
                                                              enormous violence; people don’t feel safe going out
of the population use public transport. There is little
                                                              and whenever there is a crowd of people together the
doubt that, seen through the lens of efficiency, more
                                                              police try to break it up. So an outdoor music area is a
densely populated, compact cities such as Hong Kong
                                                              no-go area. Outside the Lighthouse they have built a
and Manhattan are inherently more sustainable places
                                                              simple amphitheatre out of earth where they hold music
to live than the likes of Houston and Mexico City.
                                                              concerts in the summer. This does more to lift the
However, across the scale empowerment becomes                 spirits of the community than any policy I ever saw the
significant; you need to have a system which allows           mayor or the politicians do. At the centre of this is the
people on the ground to solve the problems where they         physical environment. By designing spaces you can
need to be solved. I go through the tiny streets of a         make an enormous change.
small slum area of the outskirts of Mumbai and I see a




                                                                                                         Future of Cities                     23
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




                      Impacts and Implications

 Cities are notjust   Perhaps more than ever before, the shape of cities, how much land they occupy, how much energy they
  a concentration     consume, how their transport infrastructure is organised and where people are housed - in remote segregated
     of problems -
 but they are also
                      environments behind walls or in integrated neighbourhoods close to jobs, facilities and transport - all affect
     places where     the environmental, economic and social sustainability of global society. Cities are not just a concentration of
     problems can     problems - but they are also places where problems can be solved.
        be solved.

                      Cities of the future have to be organic, flexible and        Creating more compact urban environments generally
                      versatile. As society and aspirations alter over time, the   will result in more efficient infrastructures: One direct
                      city has to adapt to change. Utopian cities have never       consequence of variation in population density is the
                      worked. The people that created Rome, New York and           associated energy demands: Tighter, more compact
                      London certainly didn’t think of them as fixed artifacts     cities have far lower energy use per capita than more
                      that wouldn’t change over time. We have to be clever         spread out ones: So, as energy costs continue to
                      enough as urban designers to design the city like a          escalate and energy security becomes even more of an
                      metabolism, like a body. When it gets older and weaker,      issue over the next decade, this inherent design
                      you do corrective surgery. Cities need to be versatile;      relationship will come more to the fore.
                      otherwise they fossilize and die. For example, many
                                                                                   The quality of a city does not only concern the
                      cities of the last 50 years have been designed around
                                                                                   environment. We mustn’t forget that cities are about
                      the needs of the car. But as oil costs soar and the city
                                                                                   people coming together. Ultimately a city may be very
                      of the future will increasingly need adapt to modes of
                                                                                   efficient in terms of CO2 emission but if the places
                      transportation that are not petrol-dependent. This will
                                                                                   where we come together are not beautiful (a word
                      have a significant impact on the shape of the city.
                                                                                   which is rarely used in this debate) and if the places
                      In order to be versatile and responsive to change the        don’t have a wonderful relationship to urban nature - a
                      sustainable city will also have to be compact. A city like   river, water or views that compensate for this human
                      Mexico City, which goes on for 100 kilometers in one         closeness, this is not a city that people will want to live
                      direction and 150 kilometers in another, has hardly any      in. The qualities I am looking for in a city that is
                      chance of actually becoming sustainable. On the other        sustainable, that embraces the notion of versatility, that
                      hand a city like New York or Copenhagen and a city like      is compact, that offers bounds of beauty in its buildings
                      London which has highs and lows of density, has the          and the quality of its open spaces.
                      potential to become sustainable within the next 30 years.




24                    Future of Cities
The qualities I
am looking for
in a city that is
sustainable, that
embraces the
notion of
versatility, that
is compact, that
offers bounds
of beauty in its
buildings and the
quality of its
open spaces.




               25
Jan Färjh
     Vice President and Head of Ericsson Research




     Future of Connectivity




26
The Global Challenge


The internet has finally gone mobile. Today over 300m of us access the web using mobile technology. In 2010               In a couple of
the number of subscribers reaches 1bn, surpassing the number of fixed internet users. In a couple of years                years the number
                                                                                                                          of mobile
the number of mobile broadband connections will be in the order of 4 to 5bn - with the majority of new                    broadband
consumers coming from China and India. By 2020 there may well be as many as 50bn devices connected                        connections will
to each other. These devices will work across different networks which, in turn, will be connected to each                be in the order
                                                                                                                          of 4 to 5bn - with
other. This global, pervasive connectivity will facilitate new types of services and opportunities for people,
                                                                                                                          the majority of
industry, and society but it won’t be an easy journey. Delivering this vision is a major commercial and technical         new consumers
challenge for the ICT sector, but on the other hand very exciting.                                                        coming from
                                                                                                                          China and India.

Technology in itself will not be a restricting factor.       the potential to bring extraordinary benefits, for some it
Transport, access, storage, and processing will all thrive   will be a real challenge to adapt to this. Information on
on the continued effects of Moore’s law and                  almost everything is now widely available making
miniaturization will continue where beneficial. High         industries and markets much more transparent and
performing systems are of course an absolute necessity       efficient. However, the way consumers share information
but the implementation challenge is not straightforward.     and communicate with each other, utilizing a variety of
We need to consider how to deal with the phenomenal          online social networking tools, IPTV, images and video,
increase in capacity both in terms of number of devices      means that how we give and receive information is
to be handled but also in terms of the amount of             becoming increasingly personalised. This, in turn, means
information that will be exchanged between these             that individuals, more than ever before, have to manage
devices. Power consumption will also still be an issue       their own public identity. This indicates that concerns
because of battery lifetime and sustainability concerns.     around cyber crime and data protection will continue to
So, how can we develop a system that is cost -               rise. As a result, security and consumer protection
effective, adaptable, easily deployed and, most              related issues will become increasingly important.
importantly, simple to use? How can we develop
                                                             Business will also have to adapt to a changing
networks that are self-deployed, self-operated and self-
                                                             environment as their services are increasingly delivered
maintained? These questions cannot be answered by
                                                             online. In a world of endless choice and seemingly
technology alone; in order to achieve success we need
                                                             complete transparency some will be hard put to
collaboration between network providers, device
                                                             differentiate themselves. Of course, communications
manufacturers and, of course, policy makers both
                                                             technology is not in itself a limiting factor for the
nationally and internationally.
                                                             diffusion of new products and services - in fact
What will this mean for consumers? Essentially               evidence suggests quite the opposite - those who are
ubiquitous connectivity will continue to change the basic    successful will have made the most of the opportunity.
structure and conditions of our lives and, although it has   This is why brand identity will continue to dominate.




                                                                                               Future of Connectivity                     27
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




                        Options and Possibilities

        Machine to      By 2020 the majority of the world’s population will have access to basic telecommunications services.
     machine and        However, even though the current development pace is high, with more connected devices and availability of
        process to
            process
                        internet access “everywhere”, it is still uncertain how fast this will really impact and change conditions for other
  communications        value chains, industries and daily lives. This depends on many factors including the rate at which networks
          as well as    can be rolled out and the connection speeds that will be possible. Where there is connectivity, smart phones
  tools leveraging
                        and devices will enable people to leapfrog a generation of technology, especially for those who never had a
   data mining will
     all flourish as    land line phone. Mobile voice increase in developing economies may slow down but these markets will add
     sustainability     local innovation and stay in the forefront with overall growth consistently higher than in mature markets. It is
          efficiency    also likely that Broadband access penetration will increase primarily by means of radio solutions in developing
    measures will
                        markets outside areas where fixed broadband is economically feasible.
           be taken
 across the board
           and in all   We face rising populations and increased dependency           represents 2 percent of global CO2 emissions, it has a
      enterprises.
                        ratios which will be exacerbated by scarcities of             clear role to play in reducing the remaining 98 percent
                        resources and environmental requirements. In order to         from other sources. Therefore expect a boom in
                        maintain standards of living with substantial and             innovation of services to meet this emerging
                        continued global productivity improvements will               demand; e-government, e-health, e-education, e-work,
                        be needed. This will partly be enabled by the                 telepresence, logistics and energy management
                        communication industry and, particularly when                 services will all increase. Machine-to-machine and
                        combined with other vital industries such as                  process-to-process communications as well as tools
                        transportation and healthcare, will play an important role    leveraging data mining will all flourish as sustainability
                        in addressing this need. For example, scarcity of labour      efficiency measures will be taken across the board and
                        can, to an extent, be mitigated if machine to machine         in all enterprises.
                        (M2M) communication is used to address labour
                                                                                      In the corporate world, there will be a blurring of borders
                        intensive tasks; automation is specific vertical industries
                                                                                      between large and small enterprises with large scale
                        can be enabled by connected sensor networks. In
                                                                                      companies deploying true global operating models,
                        addition, self-service solutions will also continue to grow
                                                                                      increased inter-company collaboration and workers
                        far beyond today’s e-bank and e-retailer services
                                                                                      increasingly tele-working and being loosely connected
                        applications into areas such as government and
                                                                                      to organizations. As creative knowledge workers
                        healthcare; and, the increased global use of mobile,
                                                                                      become strategic assets for companies, IT budgets will
                        video and internet will mean that people can benefit
                                                                                      increasingly be geared at making them effective.
                        from the services they need more quickly at less cost.
                                                                                      Increased     connectivity   will   enable     competitive
                        Sustainability is certainly high on the agenda for the        advantages and new business models to be sought
                        next decade and here ICT can make a large                     from mining massive amounts of data. For instance
                        contribution. As the world measures more or less              real-time    business    intelligence    and     statistical
                        everything by new sustainability standards, whether           experimentation, real-time management of goods in
                        quality of life, business success or government actions,      world-wide distribution and logistics chains and targeted
                        there is potential for connectivity to play a significant     advertising solutions will all require data systems that
                        role in areas such as carbon mitigation. A recent report      will be enabled by falling prices on data storage,
                        (SMART 2020) concluded that, although ICT merely              communications and processing.




28                      Future of Connectivity
User generated content will also probably continue to      telecom services revenue streams at the current price        Technology in
grow strongly, increasing traffic and the abundance of     levels. That said, as media consumption continues to         itself will not
                                                                                                                        be a limiting factor
available information, However, the impact on media        become more fragmented an interactive, the gap               and there will be
value chains and the commercial value of that content      between the rapidly growing online share of media time,      the introduction
is unclear. The online advertising market will grow, but   and the online share of the global advertising budget,       of many more
                                                                                                                        new products
will not be of a magnitude sufficient to substitute        will close.
                                                                                                                        and services.




Proposed Way Forward


Looking to 2020, we see that, while the technology platforms that will enable global ubiquitous connectivity
are clear, the way in which businesses, society and individuals use these could vary significantly. Some
examples of scenarios that might occur can be described as follows:


We see an increased separation between the content         As with many scenarios, we see that the way forward
and services that people use and the means by which        will probably be a hybrid of these. An open application
it will be delivered. Companies with strong brands will    environment will enable new services and applications
shape the communications industry and their services       to combine adjacent scientific fields such as energy,
could be delivered over the top of independent network     food, water, transport, health and ICT - globally and
providers and will be tightly integrated with devices.     locally. Everything that could benefit from a wireless
Simplicity and convenience is the driving force and        network will have one. Industries will become
brand loyalty will win over variety.                       increasingly mobilized and there will be an increasing
                                                           share of services delivered online. Technology in itself
The sustainability agenda comes to the fore and
                                                           will not be a limiting factor and there will be the
changes the conditions for societies, companies and
                                                           introduction of many more new products and services.
individuals worldwide. In order to reduce travel and
                                                           Usability and simplicity will be in high demand, fixed and
energy consumption there will be an acceleration of
                                                           mobile broadband will converge and 50 billion devices
new mobile internet services for health, government,
                                                           will be connected globally.
work and machine-to-machine (M2M) operations.
Increased regulation will come into place to secure
affordable services and drive industry players to pool
their resources to ensure that networks are capable,
reliable and robust.




                                                                                             Future of Connectivity                      29
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




                      Impacts and Implications

     It is possible   Full global connectivity is already well underway. It has already changed the way we communicate with other
        to suggest    people and groups. The amount of information we can share and the speed with which we can share it is
   that access to
         advanced
                      increasing rapidly. Indeed, it is possible to suggest that access to advanced communications will be come
 communications       a “universal right” and that a wide and deep penetration of networks and services is a prerequisite for the
  will be come a      continued struggle against climate change and poverty. This suggests that universal services requirements
 “universal right”
                      will drive new investments in the industry, while measures to keep services affordable (e.g. price regulation)
                      may reduce revenues and profits leading to increased pressure for lower cost and higher efficiency.


                      In the next decade, addressing the major global              Most other areas will to some extent be affected by
                      challenges and a continued shift to wireless and online      global connectivity: Money, authenticity, transport, travel,
                      services will bring forward new societal vulnerabilities.    mHealth, privacy, identity, energy, cities, migration, food,
                      ‘Cyber crime’ and malware may be increasingly                water, waste. For all these areas you can find a use for
                      common, and dependencies on the availability of              connectivity. Global connectivity can change, improve
                      information and communication systems will increase.         and be used to catalyze innovation in everything.
                      Restricted online anonymity and privacy will also raise
                                                                                   Real change, however, can only be made when
                      integrity concerns. As a result, security and consumer
                                                                                   communication technology is properly integrated into
                      protection related regulation will increase and industries
                                                                                   adjacent scientific fields. This will open up new services
                      will move to capture these new opportunities.
                                                                                   in a wide range of complementary industries such as
                      IP will be the prevailing delivery vehicle for much of our   healthcare, automation, positioning and information
                      connectivity, and the vertical dependence between            management. It is clear that everything that can benefit
                      services and infrastructures may gradually disappear.        from a network connection will have one. Not only will
                      Users will access services and content independently of      more people be connected, but devices for various
                      the network provider to a larger extent. Business            types of automated services and functions (e.g. energy
                      models will vary, but lower entry barriers and innovation    meters, surveillance, climate sensors, e-health sensors,
                      globally will also increase the number of providers          and industry process automation) will exchange data
                      offering the same service - but at a reduced cost to         and change lives.
                      consumers of financed by alternative business models,
                      such as increasing advertising revenues.




30                    Future of Connectivity
It is clear that
everything that
can benefit
from a network
connection will
have one.




                   31
Dr. Rajiv Kumar
     Chief Executive, ICRIER




     Future of Currency




32
The Global Challenge


I see that greatest challenge for the next decade to be a fundamental one - what should the world’s currencies           The status of the
be? Over the last century we have seen the rise of the US dollar as the primary unit of global currency which            US dollar as
                                                                                                                         the global reserve
we use to measure and value much of our relative individual, organisational and national wealth and                      currency is
investments, and through which we exchange, trade and price commodities, businesses, goods and services.                 however under
The status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is however under enormous pressure and, with the              enormous
                                                                                                                         pressure
rise of new currency blocs in the world, many have been asking whether the Euro will emerge as an alternative
reserve currency. The 2008-9 financial crisis put enough pressure on the US currency to such an extent that
many now see that we need an alternative, but the question is what? Will the US remain as the pre-eminent
financial power or will its influence secularly decline stimulated by the recent crisis and its inability to achieve
a major technological breakthrough or exercise the necessary conditions for it to remain a reserve currency?
And, if we go for an alternative, why would this be the Euro?


By 2020, will we, for instance, therefore see the ACU       We also have the impact of replacing printed and
(Asian Currency Unit) develop from an Asian Monetary        minted money with electronic equivalents: The move to
Union to become the third global currency alongside         digital money will certainly raise a number of major
the Euro and the dollar? While Asia may not be ready        issues. Especially as the banking and mobile
for a common currency, the time is right to work            telecommunications sectors see their interests
towards a parallel currency. Furthermore, within this       converge in developing more widespread electronic
context, would the ACU be pegged to the Yuan or the         transactions which will minimise the use of cash, or
Yen? And will the Rupee be part of the basket that          even traditional credit as we know it, digital money will
determines the value of the ACU? These global               have increasing applicability. As banks adopt new
currency reserve questions are a primary challenge for      software and the Bank for International Settlements
the world’s economies for the next ten years.               develops guidelines for electronic money, its movement
                                                            across national borders will become practical. However,
While I see that this is the main issue, I believe that
                                                            what is the real pace of the related technologies and
during the next decade we will also have to address two
                                                            who either individually or collectively will emerge as the
other significant issues along the way:
                                                            real driver for this convergence? Given the access gap
One of the most important of these is the continuation      that still exists for significant proportions of the
of money laundering that will increasingly impact the       population in many developing nations, will we need to
smaller economies as the larger ones take steps to          wait for true, near ubiquitous mobile connectivity and
minimize the impact on their own systems. Will such         24/7 energy supply before digital money can really
countries as Switzerland and The Bahamas, as well as        have global impact?
other financial havens, finally be brought into the
                                                            Both of these issues will have impact upon international
financial mainstream and stop affording haven status
                                                            remittances, inter-bank transfers and the many
to residents of other countries? Will the advanced
                                                            associated financial vehicles that are presently in place.
economies come together and force the emerging
economies to join in the move against laundered and ill
gotten wealth?




                                                                                                  Future of Currency                     33
What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org




                      Options and Possibilities

   De-leveraging is   It is certain that for the next decade the US dollar will remain as one of the reserve currencies. As such it will
already happening     still be a key currency for foreign exchange and a transaction currency for international trade and investments
     as individuals
 and governments
                      in 2020. The US dollar will continue to be integrated into, and influential upon, the world economy.
       across Asia
    decrease their    Over the same period, it is possible, but not highly         sustainable in the long term and, as such, a leverage
    investments in
                      probable, that the Euro will become a major reserve          based model cannot continue. The 2008 shock to the
     the US dollar.
                      currency. Although the European Monetary Union led to        global financial system could have significant influence:
                      the public introduction of the Euro in 2002, this was        De-leveraging is already happening as individuals and
                      twenty years after the first creation of the ECU as an       governments across Asia decrease their investments in
                      artificial basket currency used by participating countries   the US dollar.
                      as their internal accounting unit. It is unlikely that,
                                                                                   That said, over the next decade, it is unlikely that we will
                      another two decades later, the Euro will have become
                                                                                   really see the emergence of the ACU as the third
                      quite as significant a currency as the dollar, but it may
                                                                                   currency block. This is because Asians cannot decide
                      not be far off. A world where the Euro has equal status
                                                                                   on either a viable collation or leadership by one of the
                      to the dollar as a reserve currency is increasingly
                                                                                   countries. As experts, including Jin-Chuan Duan at the
                      credible.
                                                                                   National University of Singapore, have highlighted:
                      However, at the same time, it is certain that the Yuan       although much debated, Asian Monetary Union looks
                      is emerging as the central focus for economic and            unlikely in the short term. Just as with the formation of
                      financial activity in Asia with increasing number of         the ERM and the Euro, the realisation of the ACU as a
                      transactions occurring in that currency, though with         single regional currency would demand cross subsidy
                      limited convertibility. We have seen the rise of China to    via taxation between countries, the loss of autonomy in
                      become the world’s primary economic power. This is           the conduct of monetary policy and the partial surrender
                      accompanied by a similar rise of India and the               of some national sovereignty: Right now the Asian
                      associated rebalancing of wealth between the West            version of the Euro is theoretically possible but
                      and the East. Although the recent economic model has         practically far from certain. However, dual currency
                      largely been one where Asians produce goods that are         systems are common and I believe that, although Asian
                      bought by Americans using money that is lent back to         Monetary Union is improbable by 2020, a parallel
                      them by the Asians, this may not last much longer: As        currency ACU that allows for exchange rate
                      a number of commentators, including historian Niall          adjustments is practical. But the ACU must be based
                      Ferguson, have argued this ‘Chimerica’ balance is not        on a wider basket than just the ASEAN countries.




34                    Future of Currency
Proposed Way Forward


Over the next decade, we will move unmistakably towards a multi-polar world which will be characterized by                 The introduction
a much broader consultative process that extends to a larger number of jurisdictions. Greater coordination                 of a broad-basket
                                                                                                                           ACU (Asian
amongst major economies on financial sector regulation will be needed, and this can be facilitated by the                  Currency Unit)
newly enlarged Financial Stability Board based in Basle. At its core, the coordination will have to be aimed               as the third global
at achieving greater trust in the transparent and universally applicable working of the financial system. This             reserve currency
                                                                                                                           will provide the
will especially need to dispel the fear that the global financial system has a bias in favour of any one country
                                                                                                                           world with the
or group of countries or group of dominant institutions. As the G20 has superseded the G7, financial                       opportunity to
management of the global system must become more equable: Within this it is possible that a more prominent                 more appropriately
role is given to Special Drawing Rights - the international reserve assets managed by the IMF that currently               balance economic
                                                                                                                           influence and
amount to over $300 billion. It was used to boost global liquidity in 2009, but additional ongoing and arguably
                                                                                                                           trade.
more proactive applications should be made more practical.


In a similar manner to how Shell’s current global scenarios   Many would correctly suggest that a true single world
outline the future for the energy sector, I see that the      currency is not practical: Differential interest rates and
challenge in the financial world is to also ensure that we    selective monetary policies make it impossible and
try our best to follow the ‘blueprint’ and not the            currency harmonization cannot readily be implemented
‘scramble’ approach: I suggest that we need to                while different countries are in different stages of
strengthen the global coordination mechanisms to              economic development. The IMF is not a super central
facilitate the monitoring of global financial flows and       bank and turning Special Drawing Rights into a world
enable the emergence of new technologies to help              currency is neither possible nor practical. However, the
balance the system. The major economies represented           introduction of a broad basket ACU as the third global
in the G20 need to agree to have some arrangement for         reserve currency will provide the world with the
a universally acceptable reserve currency, starting as a      opportunity to more appropriately balance economic
unit of account and then also phasing it in as a currency     influence and trade.
of exchange. I believe that we should adopt such a
universally acceptable currency that does not face the
risk of being debased as a result of the fiscal and
financial indiscipline on the part of any one country. The
ACU has the potential to be that currency. But to function
as such it must include the Rupee: India is currently the
largest economy of South Asia and plays a far more
influential role across Asia as a whole than many of the
ASEAN countries. The ACU has been seen as a
precursor to a common future currency, just as the ECU
was for the Euro. Therefore, it is important to focus on
how the world will therefore look when this occurs - India
is currently poised to be the third largest economy in the
world over the next 30 years. Hence the inclusion of
India in Asian economic monetary integration is prudent.




                                                                                                    Future of Currency                     35
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text
Future Agenda   Initial Perspectives Full Text

More Related Content

What's hot

The Future Of Advertising and How To Make It Work For You Today
The Future Of Advertising and How To Make It Work For You TodayThe Future Of Advertising and How To Make It Work For You Today
The Future Of Advertising and How To Make It Work For You Today
AdNerds
 
E learning-2.0 2
E learning-2.0 2E learning-2.0 2
E learning-2.0 2
wondwossenbezu
 
Technology - Age of sharing
Technology - Age of sharingTechnology - Age of sharing
Technology - Age of sharing
Himglo
 
Consumers of tomorrow insights and observations about generation z
Consumers of tomorrow insights and observations about generation zConsumers of tomorrow insights and observations about generation z
Consumers of tomorrow insights and observations about generation z
★ Duong Vo ★
 
Cult of the amateur or cognitive surplus
Cult of the amateur or cognitive surplusCult of the amateur or cognitive surplus
Cult of the amateur or cognitive surplus
Rob Jewitt
 
Feb 25th culture heritage and tourism dmu games festival
Feb 25th culture heritage and tourism dmu games festivalFeb 25th culture heritage and tourism dmu games festival
Feb 25th culture heritage and tourism dmu games festival
David Wortley
 
Sourcing lecture 3 ITSM Cloudsourcing and outsourcing
Sourcing lecture 3 ITSM Cloudsourcing and outsourcingSourcing lecture 3 ITSM Cloudsourcing and outsourcing
Sourcing lecture 3 ITSM Cloudsourcing and outsourcing
Frank Willems
 
514 09 10-best_buy_connected
514 09 10-best_buy_connected514 09 10-best_buy_connected
514 09 10-best_buy_connected
Terence Ling
 
Innovation, Transformation and Culture
Innovation, Transformation and CultureInnovation, Transformation and Culture
Innovation, Transformation and Culture
Ayelet Baron
 
Digital Mission to Washington DC 2011
Digital Mission to Washington DC 2011Digital Mission to Washington DC 2011
Digital Mission to Washington DC 2011
Chinwag
 
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
Gerd Leonhard
 
Disruptive innovation
Disruptive innovationDisruptive innovation
Disruptive innovation
Partha Pratim Kundu
 
Social Moving Picture - IN
Social Moving Picture - INSocial Moving Picture - IN
Social Moving Picture - IN
Tommi Pelkonen
 
Boostzone Webreview on the Future of the World of Work - September 2012
Boostzone Webreview on the Future of the World of Work - September 2012Boostzone Webreview on the Future of the World of Work - September 2012
Boostzone Webreview on the Future of the World of Work - September 2012
Boostzone Institute
 
Mobile Trends 2020
Mobile Trends 2020Mobile Trends 2020
Mobile Trends 2020
Anna
 
The impact of social media on innovation culture
The impact of social media on innovation cultureThe impact of social media on innovation culture
The impact of social media on innovation culture
andrew_tan7
 
A Brave New World of Connected Media
A Brave New World of Connected MediaA Brave New World of Connected Media
A Brave New World of Connected Media
Cognizant
 
Blogs as Bridges: How Web 2.0 Connects People Across the Ages (and Across Age...
Blogs as Bridges: How Web 2.0 Connects People Across the Ages (and Across Age...Blogs as Bridges: How Web 2.0 Connects People Across the Ages (and Across Age...
Blogs as Bridges: How Web 2.0 Connects People Across the Ages (and Across Age...
Andrew Krzmarzick
 
Technology In A Cold Climate
Technology In A Cold ClimateTechnology In A Cold Climate
Technology In A Cold Climate
Dominic Campbell
 
Flat World, Flat Web, Flat Classrooms
Flat World, Flat Web, Flat ClassroomsFlat World, Flat Web, Flat Classrooms
Flat World, Flat Web, Flat Classrooms
dwarlick
 

What's hot (20)

The Future Of Advertising and How To Make It Work For You Today
The Future Of Advertising and How To Make It Work For You TodayThe Future Of Advertising and How To Make It Work For You Today
The Future Of Advertising and How To Make It Work For You Today
 
E learning-2.0 2
E learning-2.0 2E learning-2.0 2
E learning-2.0 2
 
Technology - Age of sharing
Technology - Age of sharingTechnology - Age of sharing
Technology - Age of sharing
 
Consumers of tomorrow insights and observations about generation z
Consumers of tomorrow insights and observations about generation zConsumers of tomorrow insights and observations about generation z
Consumers of tomorrow insights and observations about generation z
 
Cult of the amateur or cognitive surplus
Cult of the amateur or cognitive surplusCult of the amateur or cognitive surplus
Cult of the amateur or cognitive surplus
 
Feb 25th culture heritage and tourism dmu games festival
Feb 25th culture heritage and tourism dmu games festivalFeb 25th culture heritage and tourism dmu games festival
Feb 25th culture heritage and tourism dmu games festival
 
Sourcing lecture 3 ITSM Cloudsourcing and outsourcing
Sourcing lecture 3 ITSM Cloudsourcing and outsourcingSourcing lecture 3 ITSM Cloudsourcing and outsourcing
Sourcing lecture 3 ITSM Cloudsourcing and outsourcing
 
514 09 10-best_buy_connected
514 09 10-best_buy_connected514 09 10-best_buy_connected
514 09 10-best_buy_connected
 
Innovation, Transformation and Culture
Innovation, Transformation and CultureInnovation, Transformation and Culture
Innovation, Transformation and Culture
 
Digital Mission to Washington DC 2011
Digital Mission to Washington DC 2011Digital Mission to Washington DC 2011
Digital Mission to Washington DC 2011
 
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
The Future Of Media Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist @ Plugg 2009
 
Disruptive innovation
Disruptive innovationDisruptive innovation
Disruptive innovation
 
Social Moving Picture - IN
Social Moving Picture - INSocial Moving Picture - IN
Social Moving Picture - IN
 
Boostzone Webreview on the Future of the World of Work - September 2012
Boostzone Webreview on the Future of the World of Work - September 2012Boostzone Webreview on the Future of the World of Work - September 2012
Boostzone Webreview on the Future of the World of Work - September 2012
 
Mobile Trends 2020
Mobile Trends 2020Mobile Trends 2020
Mobile Trends 2020
 
The impact of social media on innovation culture
The impact of social media on innovation cultureThe impact of social media on innovation culture
The impact of social media on innovation culture
 
A Brave New World of Connected Media
A Brave New World of Connected MediaA Brave New World of Connected Media
A Brave New World of Connected Media
 
Blogs as Bridges: How Web 2.0 Connects People Across the Ages (and Across Age...
Blogs as Bridges: How Web 2.0 Connects People Across the Ages (and Across Age...Blogs as Bridges: How Web 2.0 Connects People Across the Ages (and Across Age...
Blogs as Bridges: How Web 2.0 Connects People Across the Ages (and Across Age...
 
Technology In A Cold Climate
Technology In A Cold ClimateTechnology In A Cold Climate
Technology In A Cold Climate
 
Flat World, Flat Web, Flat Classrooms
Flat World, Flat Web, Flat ClassroomsFlat World, Flat Web, Flat Classrooms
Flat World, Flat Web, Flat Classrooms
 

Viewers also liked

Profissoe sanimais
Profissoe sanimaisProfissoe sanimais
Profissoe sanimais
Patricia Nunes Saran
 
Retrieving Address Based Locations From The Web
Retrieving Address Based Locations From The WebRetrieving Address Based Locations From The Web
Retrieving Address Based Locations From The Web
jyhuangtc
 
中秋快樂
中秋快樂中秋快樂
中秋快樂
Roc4031
 
Visual Design
Visual DesignVisual Design
Visual Design
Fawaz Gogo
 
Katechismus 11 - 12 jarigen
Katechismus 11 - 12 jarigenKatechismus 11 - 12 jarigen
Katechismus 11 - 12 jarigenN Couperus
 
Analisi ergonomica della segnaletica nell’edificio U6 Milano Bicocca
Analisi ergonomica della segnaletica nell’edificio U6 Milano BicoccaAnalisi ergonomica della segnaletica nell’edificio U6 Milano Bicocca
Analisi ergonomica della segnaletica nell’edificio U6 Milano Bicocca
Michele Pierangeli
 
Taxation system ireland
Taxation system irelandTaxation system ireland
Taxation system ireland
Nirankar Singh
 
Where Media Meets Mobile May 2010
Where Media Meets Mobile   May 2010Where Media Meets Mobile   May 2010
Where Media Meets Mobile May 2010
Hugh Griffiths
 
Future Agenda Future Of Cities
Future Agenda   Future Of CitiesFuture Agenda   Future Of Cities
Future Agenda Future Of Cities
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Connectivity
Future Agenda   Future Of ConnectivityFuture Agenda   Future Of Connectivity
Future Agenda Future Of Connectivity
Future Agenda
 
Makeup Consultations & Professional Makeup: A Beautiful Education
Makeup Consultations & Professional Makeup: A Beautiful EducationMakeup Consultations & Professional Makeup: A Beautiful Education
Makeup Consultations & Professional Makeup: A Beautiful Education
Lillybeth: A Beautiful Education
 
Filming- Day One
Filming- Day OneFilming- Day One
Filming- Day One
3246
 
Future Agenda Future Of Water
Future Agenda   Future Of WaterFuture Agenda   Future Of Water
Future Agenda Future Of Water
Future Agenda
 
πώς θα δημιουργήσετε ένα σενάριο διδασκαλίας
πώς θα δημιουργήσετε ένα σενάριο διδασκαλίαςπώς θα δημιουργήσετε ένα σενάριο διδασκαλίας
πώς θα δημιουργήσετε ένα σενάριο διδασκαλίαςChristos Gotzaridis
 
Katechismus 9 - 10 jarigen - De Sacramenten
Katechismus 9 - 10 jarigen - De SacramentenKatechismus 9 - 10 jarigen - De Sacramenten
Katechismus 9 - 10 jarigen - De Sacramenten
N Couperus
 
Future Agenda Future Of Authenticity
Future Agenda   Future Of AuthenticityFuture Agenda   Future Of Authenticity
Future Agenda Future Of Authenticity
Future Agenda
 
第49回Php勉強会@関東 Datasource
第49回Php勉強会@関東 Datasource第49回Php勉強会@関東 Datasource
第49回Php勉強会@関東 Datasource
Kaz Watanabe
 
استخدام المدونات و الويكي في التعليم
استخدام المدونات و الويكي في التعليماستخدام المدونات و الويكي في التعليم
استخدام المدونات و الويكي في التعليمFawaz Gogo
 
Compu Lawye Rlucy
Compu Lawye RlucyCompu Lawye Rlucy
Compu Lawye Rlucy
Rene WaffleBerry
 

Viewers also liked (20)

Profissoe sanimais
Profissoe sanimaisProfissoe sanimais
Profissoe sanimais
 
Retrieving Address Based Locations From The Web
Retrieving Address Based Locations From The WebRetrieving Address Based Locations From The Web
Retrieving Address Based Locations From The Web
 
asptours
asptoursasptours
asptours
 
中秋快樂
中秋快樂中秋快樂
中秋快樂
 
Visual Design
Visual DesignVisual Design
Visual Design
 
Katechismus 11 - 12 jarigen
Katechismus 11 - 12 jarigenKatechismus 11 - 12 jarigen
Katechismus 11 - 12 jarigen
 
Analisi ergonomica della segnaletica nell’edificio U6 Milano Bicocca
Analisi ergonomica della segnaletica nell’edificio U6 Milano BicoccaAnalisi ergonomica della segnaletica nell’edificio U6 Milano Bicocca
Analisi ergonomica della segnaletica nell’edificio U6 Milano Bicocca
 
Taxation system ireland
Taxation system irelandTaxation system ireland
Taxation system ireland
 
Where Media Meets Mobile May 2010
Where Media Meets Mobile   May 2010Where Media Meets Mobile   May 2010
Where Media Meets Mobile May 2010
 
Future Agenda Future Of Cities
Future Agenda   Future Of CitiesFuture Agenda   Future Of Cities
Future Agenda Future Of Cities
 
Future Agenda Future Of Connectivity
Future Agenda   Future Of ConnectivityFuture Agenda   Future Of Connectivity
Future Agenda Future Of Connectivity
 
Makeup Consultations & Professional Makeup: A Beautiful Education
Makeup Consultations & Professional Makeup: A Beautiful EducationMakeup Consultations & Professional Makeup: A Beautiful Education
Makeup Consultations & Professional Makeup: A Beautiful Education
 
Filming- Day One
Filming- Day OneFilming- Day One
Filming- Day One
 
Future Agenda Future Of Water
Future Agenda   Future Of WaterFuture Agenda   Future Of Water
Future Agenda Future Of Water
 
πώς θα δημιουργήσετε ένα σενάριο διδασκαλίας
πώς θα δημιουργήσετε ένα σενάριο διδασκαλίαςπώς θα δημιουργήσετε ένα σενάριο διδασκαλίας
πώς θα δημιουργήσετε ένα σενάριο διδασκαλίας
 
Katechismus 9 - 10 jarigen - De Sacramenten
Katechismus 9 - 10 jarigen - De SacramentenKatechismus 9 - 10 jarigen - De Sacramenten
Katechismus 9 - 10 jarigen - De Sacramenten
 
Future Agenda Future Of Authenticity
Future Agenda   Future Of AuthenticityFuture Agenda   Future Of Authenticity
Future Agenda Future Of Authenticity
 
第49回Php勉強会@関東 Datasource
第49回Php勉強会@関東 Datasource第49回Php勉強会@関東 Datasource
第49回Php勉強会@関東 Datasource
 
استخدام المدونات و الويكي في التعليم
استخدام المدونات و الويكي في التعليماستخدام المدونات و الويكي في التعليم
استخدام المدونات و الويكي في التعليم
 
Compu Lawye Rlucy
Compu Lawye RlucyCompu Lawye Rlucy
Compu Lawye Rlucy
 

Similar to Future Agenda Initial Perspectives Full Text

P2 media theories explained
P2 media theories explainedP2 media theories explained
P2 media theories explained
Media Studies
 
Iftf future of persuasion report
Iftf future of persuasion reportIftf future of persuasion report
Iftf future of persuasion report
Giuliano Tavaroli
 
Future of persuasion report
Future of persuasion reportFuture of persuasion report
Future of persuasion report
Karlos Svoboda
 
IdentityNORTH Annual Summit 2020 - Summit Summary
IdentityNORTH Annual Summit 2020 - Summit SummaryIdentityNORTH Annual Summit 2020 - Summit Summary
IdentityNORTH Annual Summit 2020 - Summit Summary
IdentityNorthEvents
 
2600 v21 n3 (autumn 2004)
2600 v21 n3 (autumn 2004)2600 v21 n3 (autumn 2004)
2600 v21 n3 (autumn 2004)
Felipe Prado
 
104 190322 Bookclub-The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing
104 190322 Bookclub-The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing104 190322 Bookclub-The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing
104 190322 Bookclub-The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing
Lia s. Associates | Branding & Design
 
Evolution of Social Media and its effects on Knowledge Organisation
Evolution of Social Media and its effects on Knowledge OrganisationEvolution of Social Media and its effects on Knowledge Organisation
Evolution of Social Media and its effects on Knowledge Organisation
Collabor8now Ltd
 
Governance And Building A Community
Governance And Building A CommunityGovernance And Building A Community
Governance And Building A Community
Robert Gardner
 
Community Essay College
Community Essay CollegeCommunity Essay College
Community Essay College
Jacqueline Ramirez
 
025 Theme Essay Example Literary Examples Samples Writing Analys
025 Theme Essay Example Literary Examples Samples Writing Analys025 Theme Essay Example Literary Examples Samples Writing Analys
025 Theme Essay Example Literary Examples Samples Writing Analys
Jasmine Dixon
 
Blended Reality: superstructing reality, superstructing selves
Blended Reality:  superstructing reality, superstructing selvesBlended Reality:  superstructing reality, superstructing selves
Blended Reality: superstructing reality, superstructing selves
Sean Ness
 
US/EU Social Media White Paper
US/EU Social Media White PaperUS/EU Social Media White Paper
US/EU Social Media White Paper
skmarcus
 
Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10
Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10
Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10
Association of Public and Land-grant Universities
 
A Criticial Approach to Social Media
A Criticial Approach to Social Media A Criticial Approach to Social Media
A Criticial Approach to Social Media
Vincent Maher
 
The Rise of Digital Darwinism and the Fall of Business As Usual by Brian Solis
The Rise of Digital Darwinism and the Fall of Business As Usual by Brian SolisThe Rise of Digital Darwinism and the Fall of Business As Usual by Brian Solis
The Rise of Digital Darwinism and the Fall of Business As Usual by Brian Solis
Brian Solis
 
ViO Presentation The Future of Communications and Virtual Environments
ViO Presentation The Future of Communications and Virtual EnvironmentsViO Presentation The Future of Communications and Virtual Environments
ViO Presentation The Future of Communications and Virtual Environments
Will Burns
 
Future of data - An initial perspective - Stephan Shakespeare, CEO and Co-Fou...
Future of data - An initial perspective - Stephan Shakespeare, CEO and Co-Fou...Future of data - An initial perspective - Stephan Shakespeare, CEO and Co-Fou...
Future of data - An initial perspective - Stephan Shakespeare, CEO and Co-Fou...
Future Agenda
 
08 27 - mnr book - final (web)
08 27 - mnr book - final (web)08 27 - mnr book - final (web)
08 27 - mnr book - final (web)
carrie mclaren
 
Maa Ka Pyar Essay In Hindi
Maa Ka Pyar Essay In HindiMaa Ka Pyar Essay In Hindi
Maa Ka Pyar Essay In Hindi
Laura Jones
 
Gov 2.0 for Texas Certified Public Manager (CPM ) Program
Gov 2.0 for Texas Certified Public Manager (CPM ) ProgramGov 2.0 for Texas Certified Public Manager (CPM ) Program
Gov 2.0 for Texas Certified Public Manager (CPM ) Program
GovLoop
 

Similar to Future Agenda Initial Perspectives Full Text (20)

P2 media theories explained
P2 media theories explainedP2 media theories explained
P2 media theories explained
 
Iftf future of persuasion report
Iftf future of persuasion reportIftf future of persuasion report
Iftf future of persuasion report
 
Future of persuasion report
Future of persuasion reportFuture of persuasion report
Future of persuasion report
 
IdentityNORTH Annual Summit 2020 - Summit Summary
IdentityNORTH Annual Summit 2020 - Summit SummaryIdentityNORTH Annual Summit 2020 - Summit Summary
IdentityNORTH Annual Summit 2020 - Summit Summary
 
2600 v21 n3 (autumn 2004)
2600 v21 n3 (autumn 2004)2600 v21 n3 (autumn 2004)
2600 v21 n3 (autumn 2004)
 
104 190322 Bookclub-The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing
104 190322 Bookclub-The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing104 190322 Bookclub-The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing
104 190322 Bookclub-The Power of Real-Time Social Media Marketing
 
Evolution of Social Media and its effects on Knowledge Organisation
Evolution of Social Media and its effects on Knowledge OrganisationEvolution of Social Media and its effects on Knowledge Organisation
Evolution of Social Media and its effects on Knowledge Organisation
 
Governance And Building A Community
Governance And Building A CommunityGovernance And Building A Community
Governance And Building A Community
 
Community Essay College
Community Essay CollegeCommunity Essay College
Community Essay College
 
025 Theme Essay Example Literary Examples Samples Writing Analys
025 Theme Essay Example Literary Examples Samples Writing Analys025 Theme Essay Example Literary Examples Samples Writing Analys
025 Theme Essay Example Literary Examples Samples Writing Analys
 
Blended Reality: superstructing reality, superstructing selves
Blended Reality:  superstructing reality, superstructing selvesBlended Reality:  superstructing reality, superstructing selves
Blended Reality: superstructing reality, superstructing selves
 
US/EU Social Media White Paper
US/EU Social Media White PaperUS/EU Social Media White Paper
US/EU Social Media White Paper
 
Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10
Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10
Bob Johansen For National Extension Directors 3 17 10
 
A Criticial Approach to Social Media
A Criticial Approach to Social Media A Criticial Approach to Social Media
A Criticial Approach to Social Media
 
The Rise of Digital Darwinism and the Fall of Business As Usual by Brian Solis
The Rise of Digital Darwinism and the Fall of Business As Usual by Brian SolisThe Rise of Digital Darwinism and the Fall of Business As Usual by Brian Solis
The Rise of Digital Darwinism and the Fall of Business As Usual by Brian Solis
 
ViO Presentation The Future of Communications and Virtual Environments
ViO Presentation The Future of Communications and Virtual EnvironmentsViO Presentation The Future of Communications and Virtual Environments
ViO Presentation The Future of Communications and Virtual Environments
 
Future of data - An initial perspective - Stephan Shakespeare, CEO and Co-Fou...
Future of data - An initial perspective - Stephan Shakespeare, CEO and Co-Fou...Future of data - An initial perspective - Stephan Shakespeare, CEO and Co-Fou...
Future of data - An initial perspective - Stephan Shakespeare, CEO and Co-Fou...
 
08 27 - mnr book - final (web)
08 27 - mnr book - final (web)08 27 - mnr book - final (web)
08 27 - mnr book - final (web)
 
Maa Ka Pyar Essay In Hindi
Maa Ka Pyar Essay In HindiMaa Ka Pyar Essay In Hindi
Maa Ka Pyar Essay In Hindi
 
Gov 2.0 for Texas Certified Public Manager (CPM ) Program
Gov 2.0 for Texas Certified Public Manager (CPM ) ProgramGov 2.0 for Texas Certified Public Manager (CPM ) Program
Gov 2.0 for Texas Certified Public Manager (CPM ) Program
 

More from Future Agenda

Future agenda final
Future agenda finalFuture agenda final
Future agenda final
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Key Global Insights
Future Agenda   Key Global InsightsFuture Agenda   Key Global Insights
Future Agenda Key Global Insights
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda 20 Insights For 2020 Final
Future Agenda   20 Insights For 2020   FinalFuture Agenda   20 Insights For 2020   Final
Future Agenda 20 Insights For 2020 Final
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Health
Future Agenda   Future Of HealthFuture Agenda   Future Of Health
Future Agenda Future Of Health
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Identity
Future Agenda   Future Of IdentityFuture Agenda   Future Of Identity
Future Agenda Future Of Identity
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Migration
Future Agenda   Future Of MigrationFuture Agenda   Future Of Migration
Future Agenda Future Of Migration
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Money
Future Agenda   Future Of MoneyFuture Agenda   Future Of Money
Future Agenda Future Of Money
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Transport
Future Agenda   Future Of TransportFuture Agenda   Future Of Transport
Future Agenda Future Of Transport
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Waste
Future Agenda   Future Of WasteFuture Agenda   Future Of Waste
Future Agenda Future Of Waste
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Work
Future Agenda   Future Of WorkFuture Agenda   Future Of Work
Future Agenda Future Of Work
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Food
Future Agenda   Future Of FoodFuture Agenda   Future Of Food
Future Agenda Future Of Food
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Energy
Future Agenda   Future Of EnergyFuture Agenda   Future Of Energy
Future Agenda Future Of Energy
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Data
Future Agenda   Future Of DataFuture Agenda   Future Of Data
Future Agenda Future Of Data
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Currency
Future Agenda   Future Of CurrencyFuture Agenda   Future Of Currency
Future Agenda Future Of Currency
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Future Of Choice
Future Agenda   Future Of ChoiceFuture Agenda   Future Of Choice
Future Agenda Future Of Choice
Future Agenda
 
Future Agenda Introduction And Initial Thoughts
Future Agenda   Introduction And Initial ThoughtsFuture Agenda   Introduction And Initial Thoughts
Future Agenda Introduction And Initial Thoughts
Future Agenda
 

More from Future Agenda (16)

Future agenda final
Future agenda finalFuture agenda final
Future agenda final
 
Future Agenda Key Global Insights
Future Agenda   Key Global InsightsFuture Agenda   Key Global Insights
Future Agenda Key Global Insights
 
Future Agenda 20 Insights For 2020 Final
Future Agenda   20 Insights For 2020   FinalFuture Agenda   20 Insights For 2020   Final
Future Agenda 20 Insights For 2020 Final
 
Future Agenda Future Of Health
Future Agenda   Future Of HealthFuture Agenda   Future Of Health
Future Agenda Future Of Health
 
Future Agenda Future Of Identity
Future Agenda   Future Of IdentityFuture Agenda   Future Of Identity
Future Agenda Future Of Identity
 
Future Agenda Future Of Migration
Future Agenda   Future Of MigrationFuture Agenda   Future Of Migration
Future Agenda Future Of Migration
 
Future Agenda Future Of Money
Future Agenda   Future Of MoneyFuture Agenda   Future Of Money
Future Agenda Future Of Money
 
Future Agenda Future Of Transport
Future Agenda   Future Of TransportFuture Agenda   Future Of Transport
Future Agenda Future Of Transport
 
Future Agenda Future Of Waste
Future Agenda   Future Of WasteFuture Agenda   Future Of Waste
Future Agenda Future Of Waste
 
Future Agenda Future Of Work
Future Agenda   Future Of WorkFuture Agenda   Future Of Work
Future Agenda Future Of Work
 
Future Agenda Future Of Food
Future Agenda   Future Of FoodFuture Agenda   Future Of Food
Future Agenda Future Of Food
 
Future Agenda Future Of Energy
Future Agenda   Future Of EnergyFuture Agenda   Future Of Energy
Future Agenda Future Of Energy
 
Future Agenda Future Of Data
Future Agenda   Future Of DataFuture Agenda   Future Of Data
Future Agenda Future Of Data
 
Future Agenda Future Of Currency
Future Agenda   Future Of CurrencyFuture Agenda   Future Of Currency
Future Agenda Future Of Currency
 
Future Agenda Future Of Choice
Future Agenda   Future Of ChoiceFuture Agenda   Future Of Choice
Future Agenda Future Of Choice
 
Future Agenda Introduction And Initial Thoughts
Future Agenda   Introduction And Initial ThoughtsFuture Agenda   Introduction And Initial Thoughts
Future Agenda Introduction And Initial Thoughts
 

Recently uploaded

Science Around Us Module 2 Matter Around Us
Science Around Us Module 2 Matter Around UsScience Around Us Module 2 Matter Around Us
Science Around Us Module 2 Matter Around Us
PennapaKeavsiri
 
❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Fin...
❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Fin...❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Fin...
❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Fin...
❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Kalyan Satta Matka Guessing Matka Result Main Bazar chart
 
Pitch Deck Teardown: Kinnect's $250k Angel deck
Pitch Deck Teardown: Kinnect's $250k Angel deckPitch Deck Teardown: Kinnect's $250k Angel deck
Pitch Deck Teardown: Kinnect's $250k Angel deck
HajeJanKamps
 
Discover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling Service
Discover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling ServiceDiscover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling Service
Discover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling Service
obriengroupinc04
 
Digital Transformation Frameworks: Driving Digital Excellence
Digital Transformation Frameworks: Driving Digital ExcellenceDigital Transformation Frameworks: Driving Digital Excellence
Digital Transformation Frameworks: Driving Digital Excellence
Operational Excellence Consulting
 
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan ChartSatta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results
 
Cover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SU
Cover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SUCover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SU
Cover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SU
msthrill
 
Prescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPT
Prescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPTPrescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPT
Prescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPT
Freelance
 
Pro Tips for Effortless Contract Management
Pro Tips for Effortless Contract ManagementPro Tips for Effortless Contract Management
Pro Tips for Effortless Contract Management
Eternity Paralegal Services
 
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan ChartSatta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results
 
一比一原版(QMUE毕业证书)英国爱丁堡玛格丽特女王大学毕业证文凭如何办理
一比一原版(QMUE毕业证书)英国爱丁堡玛格丽特女王大学毕业证文凭如何办理一比一原版(QMUE毕业证书)英国爱丁堡玛格丽特女王大学毕业证文凭如何办理
一比一原版(QMUE毕业证书)英国爱丁堡玛格丽特女王大学毕业证文凭如何办理
taqyea
 
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan panel Chart Indian Matka Dpbos...
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan panel Chart Indian Matka Dpbos...Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan panel Chart Indian Matka Dpbos...
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan panel Chart Indian Matka Dpbos...
➒➌➎➏➑➐➋➑➐➐Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian Matka
 
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan ChartSatta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results
 
IMG_20240615_091110.pdf dpboss guessing
IMG_20240615_091110.pdf dpboss  guessingIMG_20240615_091110.pdf dpboss  guessing
Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...
Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...
Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...
Niswey
 
1 Circular 003_2023 ISO 27001_2022 Transition Arrangments v3.pdf
1 Circular 003_2023 ISO 27001_2022 Transition Arrangments v3.pdf1 Circular 003_2023 ISO 27001_2022 Transition Arrangments v3.pdf
1 Circular 003_2023 ISO 27001_2022 Transition Arrangments v3.pdf
ISONIKELtd
 
PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana: Online Application, Eligibility, Subsidies &...
PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana: Online Application, Eligibility, Subsidies &...PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana: Online Application, Eligibility, Subsidies &...
PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana: Online Application, Eligibility, Subsidies &...
Ksquare Energy Pvt. Ltd.
 
Call 8867766396 Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian M...
Call 8867766396 Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian M...Call 8867766396 Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian M...
Call 8867766396 Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian M...
dpbossdpboss69
 
Call8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessing
Call8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessingCall8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessing
Call8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessing
➑➌➋➑➒➎➑➑➊➍
 
Innovation Management Frameworks: Your Guide to Creativity & Innovation
Innovation Management Frameworks: Your Guide to Creativity & InnovationInnovation Management Frameworks: Your Guide to Creativity & Innovation
Innovation Management Frameworks: Your Guide to Creativity & Innovation
Operational Excellence Consulting
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Science Around Us Module 2 Matter Around Us
Science Around Us Module 2 Matter Around UsScience Around Us Module 2 Matter Around Us
Science Around Us Module 2 Matter Around Us
 
❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Fin...
❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Fin...❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Fin...
❼❷⓿❺❻❷❽❷❼❽ Dpboss Matka Result Satta Matka Guessing Satta Fix jodi Kalyan Fin...
 
Pitch Deck Teardown: Kinnect's $250k Angel deck
Pitch Deck Teardown: Kinnect's $250k Angel deckPitch Deck Teardown: Kinnect's $250k Angel deck
Pitch Deck Teardown: Kinnect's $250k Angel deck
 
Discover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling Service
Discover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling ServiceDiscover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling Service
Discover the Beauty and Functionality of The Expert Remodeling Service
 
Digital Transformation Frameworks: Driving Digital Excellence
Digital Transformation Frameworks: Driving Digital ExcellenceDigital Transformation Frameworks: Driving Digital Excellence
Digital Transformation Frameworks: Driving Digital Excellence
 
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan ChartSatta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
 
Cover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SU
Cover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SUCover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SU
Cover Story - China's Investment Leader - Dr. Alyce SU
 
Prescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPT
Prescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPTPrescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPT
Prescriptive analytics BA4206 Anna University PPT
 
Pro Tips for Effortless Contract Management
Pro Tips for Effortless Contract ManagementPro Tips for Effortless Contract Management
Pro Tips for Effortless Contract Management
 
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan ChartSatta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
 
一比一原版(QMUE毕业证书)英国爱丁堡玛格丽特女王大学毕业证文凭如何办理
一比一原版(QMUE毕业证书)英国爱丁堡玛格丽特女王大学毕业证文凭如何办理一比一原版(QMUE毕业证书)英国爱丁堡玛格丽特女王大学毕业证文凭如何办理
一比一原版(QMUE毕业证书)英国爱丁堡玛格丽特女王大学毕业证文凭如何办理
 
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan panel Chart Indian Matka Dpbos...
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan panel Chart Indian Matka Dpbos...Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan panel Chart Indian Matka Dpbos...
Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan panel Chart Indian Matka Dpbos...
 
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan ChartSatta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
Satta Matka Dpboss Kalyan Matka Results Kalyan Chart
 
IMG_20240615_091110.pdf dpboss guessing
IMG_20240615_091110.pdf dpboss  guessingIMG_20240615_091110.pdf dpboss  guessing
IMG_20240615_091110.pdf dpboss guessing
 
Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...
Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...
Unlocking WhatsApp Marketing with HubSpot: Integrating Messaging into Your Ma...
 
1 Circular 003_2023 ISO 27001_2022 Transition Arrangments v3.pdf
1 Circular 003_2023 ISO 27001_2022 Transition Arrangments v3.pdf1 Circular 003_2023 ISO 27001_2022 Transition Arrangments v3.pdf
1 Circular 003_2023 ISO 27001_2022 Transition Arrangments v3.pdf
 
PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana: Online Application, Eligibility, Subsidies &...
PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana: Online Application, Eligibility, Subsidies &...PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana: Online Application, Eligibility, Subsidies &...
PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana: Online Application, Eligibility, Subsidies &...
 
Call 8867766396 Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian M...
Call 8867766396 Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian M...Call 8867766396 Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian M...
Call 8867766396 Dpboss Matka Guessing Satta Matta Matka Kalyan Chart Indian M...
 
Call8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessing
Call8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessingCall8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessing
Call8328958814 satta matka Kalyan result satta guessing
 
Innovation Management Frameworks: Your Guide to Creativity & Innovation
Innovation Management Frameworks: Your Guide to Creativity & InnovationInnovation Management Frameworks: Your Guide to Creativity & Innovation
Innovation Management Frameworks: Your Guide to Creativity & Innovation
 

Future Agenda Initial Perspectives Full Text

  • 2. Copyright © 2009 Future Agenda www.futureagenda.org Edited by Tim Jones and Caroline Dewing Designed and typeset by Julie Bartram All images sourced from iStockphoto Sponsored by Vodafone Group Plc All rights reserved. Permission should be sought from the copyright owner before any part of this publication is reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any other means. Agreement will normally be given provided that the source is acknowledged. The copyright owner does not accept any responsibility whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from the possession or use of this publication whether in terms of correctness, completeness or otherwise. The application, therefore, by the user of the contents of this publication or any part thereof, is solely at the user’s own risk. The copyright owner furthermore expressly states that any opinions given in this document are the opinions of the individual authors which are not necessarily supported by the views of their employers, the copyright owner or any company forming part of the Vodafone Group of companies. A CIP Catalogue record for this books is available from the British Library ISBN 978-0-9549853-1-8 Printed in the UK To keep the environmental impact of this document to a minimum, we have given careful consideration to the production process. The paper used in the production of this document is 55% recycled from de-inked post consumer waste. It was manufactured at mills with ISO 14001 accreditation and printed in the UK by a FSC accredited supplier in accordance with the ISO 14001 environmental management system.
  • 3. Contents Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group 5 About Future Agenda 7 Authenticity Diane Coyle OBE 8 Choice Professor José Luis Nueno 14 Cities Professor Richard Burdett 20 Connectivity Jan Färjh 26 Currency Dr. Rajiv Kumar 32 Data D J Collins 38 Energy Leo Roodhart 42 Food Jim Kirkwood 48 Health Jack Lord 54 Identity Professor Mike Hardy OBE 60 Migration Professor Richard Black 66 Money Dave Birch 72 Transport Mark Philips 78 Waste Professor Ian Williams 84 Water Professor Stewart Burn 90 Work Chris Meyer 96 Biographies 103 3
  • 4. 4
  • 5. We have all heard enough to know we live in a world that is facing some significant, potentially life-threatening challenges and yet, as a society, we lack clear direction and seem ill-prepared to do anything. What is evident is that individual, corporate and even national action is not enough. Issues such as climate change, population increase and the development of socio-economic infrastructures all require a co-coordinated, urgent and focused approach. The Future Agenda provides a forum for discussion on how to address the challenges we face and gives you the opportunity to share ideas, visions and solutions and ultimately seed change by contributing to the debate via the website www.futureagenda.org This booklet is the beginning of that discussion with experts from academia and industry establishing initial points of view on a range of issues. The opinions expressed in this document are not ours but those of independent experts whose views we respect even if we don’t always agree with them. I thank them for their wholehearted support. They have important things to say that should be of interest to anyone concerned with creating a sustainable future for us all. Mobile technology can offer many socio-economic benefits but I believe that the most important contribution that the industry can offer is the power to allow people to communicate. Never has a conversation been more important. Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group 5
  • 6. 6
  • 7. About Future Agenda Supported by Vodafone Group, the Future Agenda is a unique cross-discipline programme which aims to bring together thoughtful people from around the world to address the greatest challenges of the next decade. In doing so, it is mapping out the major issues, identifying and debating potential solutions and suggesting possible ways forward. We hope, as a consequence, that it will provide a platform for collective innovation at a higher level than has been previously been achieved. As the world responds to accelerating challenges, organisations are seeking to gain clearer and more informed views of the future so that they can place intelligent bets in terms of business strategy and innovation focus. In order to understand emerging opportunities, we believe organisations should look, beyond their traditional horizons, and use new combinations of insight and foresight methodologies. The Future Agenda programme has already gained the support of a range of corporate, government and third sector organisations keen to share perspectives, challenge each others views and identify ways forward across the topics being addressed. As all participants are free to use the material as a source for ongoing research and innovation, we invite you to add your views into the mix to build and share a unique view of the future we need to collectively address. 7
  • 8. Diane Coyle OBE Founder, Enlightenment Economics and Member, BBC Trust Future of Authenticity 8
  • 9. The Global Challenge Authenticity has great salience in our times because new information and communication technologies have The technologies greatly expanded the scale and scope of the inauthentic. For example, they have made identity fraud possible which seem to protect the bad and also playful; many of us now have multiple personalities online. When it is easy to choose an identity, what guys - the identity does that imply for the underlying reality? How do I know who I am, and how do you know who I am, and how thieves or does my bank know who I am? spammers - also seem able to lead repressive It is now so easy to make imitations that the value of communication in the past 20-30 years, copying and authorities to the authentic has been enhanced. This phenomenon sharing information has become easier and cheaper clamp down on was pointed out by the critic Walter Benjamin long ago than anybody of an earlier generation could have the good guys. This is a genuinely (in The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical imagined - especially when so many goods and services difficult dilemma. Reproduction). Furthermore, given the historically are digitally delivered. Managing this explosion in unprecedented declines in the cost of computing and imitation is one of the real challenges of the digital age. Options and Possibilities People can be authentic or not. Online identities can reflect the multiple ways we think about ourselves: A work and a home email; Several different sign-ups for accounts; a Twitter account; perhaps Facebook profiles, or a character in World of Warcraft. These are the benign possibilities. There are malign ones too. Thieves will seek our log-ins and passwords to bank accounts. Malicious spirits will hide behind fake identities to spread rumours, attack other people, incite violence even. What are we to think about the cloak of anonymity online? It seems to encourage intemperate comments, rudeness and viciousness in online forums. On the other hand, it is essential to protect whistleblowers, or those who post information in a country affected by violence or a repressive regime. The technologies which seem to protect the bad guys - the identity thieves or spammers - also seem able to lead repressive authorities to clamp down on the good guys. This is a genuinely difficult dilemma. Things can be authentic or not. Fakes are proliferating in the online world. Fake What’s more, the majority of reasonable people don’t drugs are sold over the internet, to the great harm of seem to believe there’s much wrong with intangible piracy the customers. ‘Fake’ music, films, software are - it’s a different matter in the tangible world of medicines sold too, to the benefit of customers but not of or aircraft parts. What is the authentic reality that the full copyright owners. Piracy in this metaphorical sense force of the law and the state should be protecting? After is absolutely rampant. all, an online copy of a song is no different from the original. Future of Authenticity 9
  • 10. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org The internet Information can be authentic or not. Finally, experience can be authentic or not. and modern communications, This has always been a fundamental issue in how we Authenticity has an existential value. In rich countries, amplify the navigate the world but is overwhelmingly important now where most people have lots of stuff, experience is questions of that so many people have access to so much more valuable. Activities that take time - ballooning, veracity and reliability which information. The internet, modern communications, cooking lessons, a holiday, book club meetings - are have always amplify the questions of veracity and reliability which considered good presents, treats. Representations of affected the have always affected the mass media. Urban myths experience have value too. Street style sells - as does mass media. Urban myths move with the speed of light down fibre optic cables. home made jam or hand-made crafts. But of course move with the Rumours and incitements to violence are spread, as being packaged and sold makes the authentic instantly speed of light always, person to person - but each person can now inauthentic. down fibre reach many others, very quickly. A flash mob can be optic cables. These reflections contain an enormous range of assembled either to dance in the streets of London or challenges and trade-offs. beat up and stab neighbours in Kenya. The skill of verification has become fundamental. Can you identify spam email? Can you recognise bias in your source of news? Is Wikipedia a good source for homework? The Way Forward A number of steps will have to taken so that we can establish some form of order in the digital world. These are 1) The establishment of credible, digital identities. This is essential for trust - and hence any economic and commercial activity - online. But conversely it is equally important to protect privacy - and anonymity too where it’s needed. 2) The protection of intellectual property in the online world while continuing to protect civic space, an intellectual commons - what James Boyle has entitled The Public Domain in his recent book of this title. 3) The continued provision of widespread access to communications and information. This brings enormous benefits especially to people largely excluded from the privileged information access of the past (libraries, print media). At the same time we must build in verification mechanisms, ensuring the reliability of widely-accessed online information. 10 Future of Authenticity
  • 11. The issues raised in all these different contexts are the more so when it can be spread rapidly via the The most effective varied, and difficult. For some of them, it is quite likely internet, email and mobile and potentially change way to counteract falsehoods in that there will be many technology-based solutions people’s behaviour. While SMS messages have been future will forthcoming in the near future. used to positive effect to spread correct information and probably come encourage positive action - as in elections from the from the pooling There are key areas where technology is already playing of many Phillipines to Zimbabwe - there were concerns that a major role in authenticity: Digital Right Management messages and messages containing misinformation and lies were reports so the (DRM) uses technology to limit access to certain content being used to encourage and incite the violence after people can see - technology having created the potential for access in where there is a Kenya’s December 2008 election. The most effective the first place. Equally biometric identity uses technology consistent story. way to counteract falsehoods in future will probably to limit the potential to form multiple identities. If my come from the pooling of many messages and reports avatar can always be traced back to the me of my DNA, so the people can see where there is a consistent story. is there any point in having it? The aggregation of different sources - which can be I predict technological ‘solutions’ will be commonplace done using new social media applications such as in the next few years. Sellers of content, government Ushahidi - could be a powerful tool for verification. agencies, airlines, and others will put up hurdles For reasons of food safety as well as personal designed to identify individuals. The world of ‘Minority preferences - for organic food, or fair trade food perhaps Report’ will lurch closer. But taken too far, this is a - traceability has become an important issue. The dystopia. The technologies ought to open up the world of prototype Fair Tracing Project uses online maps to follow information and creativity. If the full potential of the products on their journeys from farmers to consumers. information and communication technologies for the Tracing will involve ‘tagging‘ individual products with majority of people is to be recognized, technology can information readily accessible by both producer and not be used to build mechanisms which protect existing consumer. The information that may be attached to interests or structures and prevent change. ICTs are tagged products is virtually limitless, beginning with disruptive technologies. Printing was ultimately absolutely details of the product’s date and cost of creation, as well revolutionary - it’s why we all (in the rich west and many as its individual creator and his/her working environment other countries too) have an education and the vote. The and pay, through the various steps of its transport internet is revolutionary too. This is uncomfortable for to the eventual point-of-sale to the consumer.” those who were previously comfortable. (http://web4.cs.ucl.ac.uk/students/v.shah/fairTracing/) So although technology can certainly in the short or Another example is Sourcemap, a new tool which medium term clamp down on its own effects, it is at the permits the researching and optimization of supply expense of restricting some of the positive potential. chains, using transparency to deliver sustainability. In the longer term we need to look for better solutions. (http://ow.ly/rgRs) The most promising will depend on greater Finally, online security and encryption are ways of transparency of information and reputation. Here are protecting personal information and safeguarding some examples. personal identity. That identity is created offline. The Misinformation is dangerous in any context, including likely next step in establishing identity is likely to be misinformation spread via conventional media. It’s all biometric technology which will link the physical person Future of Authenticity 11
  • 12. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org The fact isthat to the digital environment - a thumbprint pad on the The fact is that virtual identity and "physical" identity virtual identity and computer screen, perhaps. But a person’s online, are not the same thing, and they differ in ways that "physical" identity are not the same connected identity could potentially be impossible to we are only beginning to take on board.” thing, and they copy when it consists, as it eventually may, of all the (http://digitaldebateblogs.typepad.com/digital_identity differ in ways that accumulated patterns of their digital activities. Each /2009/09/what-identity-is-important.html) we are only individual’s activities and conversations and searches is beginning to take Technological solutions are likely to need changes to on board as unique as a fingerprint. Dave Birch, who runs the social and legal institutions as well. Thus it is feasible to Digital Identity Forum, says in a recent blog post: “the imagine identifying a person through the pattern of their "common sense" notion of identity, rooted in our pre- communications and online activities, but this ability will industrial social structures and pre-human cortex, is not be irrelevant unless government authorities in particular only not very good at dealing with the properties and will accept alternatives to the present paper-based implications of identity in an online world, but positively proof of legal identity. misleading when applied to system and service design. 12 Future of Authenticity
  • 13. Impact and Implications The journey is unlikely to be easy. A comparison between the valuation of any company and its physical assets There will be shows that the vast majority of value in the economy is intangible and based on an understanding of what it an ‘arms race’ between efforts is - whether or not it is authentic. Intangible value can evaporate overnight - and we’ve seen many examples to market of that, for instance in banking recently, in the case of Enron before that. This makes reputation everything, products or and the only way to sustain a reputation is to live it constantly. create or shape a reputation and resistance to Reputation is fragile - taking time to build but able The triangulation of information from different sources any message to vanish overnight - it and will be more robust the will become an essential skill, an aspect of ‘media which is not more it is the product of personal experience and literacy’ without which consumers and citizens will be wholly authentic. recommendations. Personalization will, paradoxically, unable to navigate daily life. become increasingly important even as new Trusted guides will come to play an increasingly technologies stretch the range and geographical spread important role. These could be social networks, media of connections between people. organizations, certain connected and well-informed However, there will be an ‘arms race’ between efforts individuals, or companies or other organizations. For to market products or create or shape a reputation and these guides, too, reputation will be all-important and resistance to any message which is not wholly will require constant vigilance. authentic. This is a pattern familiar from the world of A long, collective conversation about authenticity, in at fashion: the cool people move on from a certain style as least some of its aspects, is needed. Personal identity, soon as many others take it up because it’s cool. We verification of information, piracy - there are huge can already see this expansion of the dynamics of challenges in this list. They will be best addressed by fashion in the evolution of social networks as means of creative thought about the potential of the technologies word-of-mouth recommendation. Trends such as which are amplifying the challenges of authenticity to Facebook or Twitter are subsequently taken up by provide solutions too. companies and other organizations as a means of conveying messages, but this ‘official’ and inauthentic use of a social medium in turn leads to resistance amongst users of networks who move on to another online location. Future of Authenticity 13
  • 14. Professor José Luis Nueno IESE, Barcelona Future of Choice 14
  • 15. The Global Challenge The world has changed: Product supply and demand is globalized and there is no putting the genie back in Consumers are the bottle. The flow of goods from Asia to the west has created an economic dependency over the past ten making a trade-off in a smart years that will be exploited over the next ten. As China and India and other fast-developing economies become way and cost the primary global marketplaces, the needs and wishes of the 4bn new consumers will dominate those of the is winning. 800m old ones in the US and Europe. The days where the US set the pace in the consumer mindset are over and this is not going to change. In addition, choice is being threatened from the Why should we continue to build brands when China expropriation of freedom of choice launched from and India can buy them ready-made off the shelf? Just regulators, media, and the general public. Tobacco, as Lenovo bought IBM and Tata bought Jaguar Land candy, alcoholic beverages, speed, late hours, Rover, with the financial reserves now available, why advertising, food… all are being subject to regulation should any established brand not be for sale? The that limits choice and how we get to know about it. Chinese production model is all about the right products - good quality at a low price and the brand is a The way forward is for all to get used to the new world secondary issue. Yes, there is the luxury sector - the and operate by the new rules. While a few of the usual Gucci, Prada, Louis Vuitton segment of the fashion suspects may put up national or regional protectionist industry and its like in electronics and automobiles, but barriers, the realities of global trade are all too clear and that is, by its very nature, niche - and increasingly Asian we can see the end of variety. In fact we can see a in production. Moreover, culturally intensive products, a changing balance between variety and cost. traditional refuge of variety, are under threat by Consumers are making a trade-off in a smart way and consumer unwillingness to pay. cost is winning. We therefore face the challenge of how to deal with a reduction in the number of options in the In the next ten years I see the rise of Asian retailing categories of consumption but an expansion in the driven initially by the sheer size of the associated number of categories. domestic markets and then a move into the international arena. The Aldi model will win over the Hypermarkets and department stores will all struggle in Wal-Mart one, but what about a Chinese Aldi selling the next decade: They may reduce their product mix products made by a Chinese P&G? Who could down from 26000 SKUs (stock keeping units) to 16000, compete against that combination? I believe that this but continuing to provide consumers with such choice is will occur without any significant backlash. Consumers unsustainable when discount stores only have to provide will follow the mainstream and quickly get used to less 1000 SKUs - an increase in the assortment from the 800 choice given the benefit of lower cost. This will apply they offer today. Commoditization is the way forward for across the board. the mainstream majority and in many sectors this will mean a race to the bottom in terms of margins. The only categories where I see an alternative future Department stores need a continuous stream of new are those that are affected by time; perishable products ideas and innovation to keep their mix fresh and so attract (food), live content (broadcast) and extreme time to high-end consumers, but in a world of less variety where market goods (those that respond to latent consumer high quality, low cost Asian products dominate, why will needs) will be relatively immune. Indeed, if the quality the majority seek out the niche brands? of the staple products is to improve and local production Future of Choice 15
  • 16. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org We can foresee increases to ensure security of supply, we can see destinations, or hundreds of lifestyle drugs. We will see a world in which rising costs on the horizon - but still with less variety of more of these and, in addition, many disruptive and Zara and H&M are more choice. In 2020 how many of us in Europe will eat complex new products, services or solutions will grab successful than strawberries in December? the attention of an already over-solicited and less Gap and Neiman affluent consumer. As the number of categories Marcus and Choice will also be limited by our ability to process expands, choice will have to be shared among, rather the Aldi model information. Ten years ago we did not have MP3s, wins over the than within, categories of consumption. PVRs, thousands of interesting websites, travel Wal-Mart one. Options and Possibilities With the certainty that variety will lose out to speed and cost, we can foresee a world in which Zara and H&M are more successful than Gap and Neiman Marcus and, as mentioned earlier, the Aldi model wins over Wal- Mart one. Hypermarkets and department stores will lose out to discount stores and the speed merchants. This is clear. The shape of retailing has changed and the consequences over the next decade will be driven by a clear-out of the also-rans. One likely development is in the food sector which is increasing health costs and long-term disease risks, I fast-becoming the tobacco of the 21st Century. We are see that regulators will act. The industry will have to sort progressing towards a model where no single itself out and we will see more transparency on organization can have as much influence as they have ingredients. More variety in food is nonsense. We will had in the past and we will become accustomed to a see a shift to less. Less choice maybe better and restriction in our freedom of choice. As suggested hence, by 2020, again I see less choice within previously, the obesity epidemic has not been categories but more choice between categories. This adequately moderated by the food industry and so will benefit the leading companies (a winner takes all governments will increasingly intervene to limit choice. proposition) as well as the most flexible, pragmatic, and Healthier foods will cease to be an option but instead adaptive followers. will become the norm. Portion size will be reduced and The other certainty I see is a reduction in the number of low fat and low salt will be the new default standards. players within each category. The top mega-brands will Although some companies, such as Mars and Coca- survive as will some of the most efficient non-brands. Cola, have been proactive in cutting back on advertising But there will be a clear out of the middle market - the and taking away vending machines from within schools, me-too brands will become ex-brands and will disappear. and PepsiCo especially has shifted towards lower fat products, the majority of the food sector has not made Some may see that there is uncertainty in how a sufficient move over the past decade. So, faced with consumers will react to less variety. I see that, if they 16 Future of Choice
  • 17. are not given so much choice, the mainstream majority who will be interested in the hundreds of non-electric Europe with will follow where they are led. Take, for example, what alternatives? Regulation, public opinion and financial around 200m active consumers will happen when the first Renault, Citroen and VW incentives will all accelerate the migration of the will become a electric cars are launched into the European market in consumer vehicle fleet to electric and we will not care secondary 2012. When consumers are given an option to buy one about the reduction in choice. influence to Asia with 4bn. of, say ten efficient, zero emission, zero-tax vehicles, The Way Forward Given the impact of the global downturn, in the retail arena I don’t think that we will be returning to a business as usual world. Consumer attitudes have changed to shift many of us away from wanting increased variety. In addition, the framework within which we consume has changed: Governments, the big brands, the acceleration of China and retail efficiency are all creating a new landscape within which our choice will become more limited: Less will be less not more. Variety is increasing across categories not within them. Over the next ten years we will see a reduction in the supermarkets like Aldi demonstrates, variety will be number of players per category. As variety is reduced substituted by budget. I see that, in the forthcoming and commoditization increases, only the #1 and #2 decade, many retailers will struggle to compete and fall brands will survive. So what about #3, #4 and #5? The down in between the leaders in providing low cost playing field for the future will be increasingly commodites and trend setting. As the continued growth determined by whoever sets the standards. And the of fast-fashion chains such as Zara and H&M reveals, standards will be set by the category leaders and the providing a limited but fast-changing product range is biggest marketplaces - the US, China and India - it is more profitable that holding a broad portfolio to cover a numbers game. Europe with around 200m active the full range of potential consumer choice. We have consumers will become a secondary influence to Asia now entered a world in which the distinction between with 4bn. Therefore, as products and services are prediction and following of trends has become blurred. configured to meet the global consumer, who will be Given the speed with which Zara changes its product increasingly Asian, the variety of choice will become mix, we are no longer certain whether media leads less influential than scale and speed of delivery. fashion or vice-versa. But who leads who is irrelevant when we, as consumers, don’t have to choose. The Back in the 1950s William Starbuck developed one of decisions about what we can buy are made for us and the few ideas in retailing to have lasted: Every retail so variety again reduces. The most important capability model is substituted by a more efficient one. This has for any manufacturer seeking a decent margin will be been the case for the last 50 years and I see no reason the ability to produce faster than the diffusion of a for change in the future. As the success of discount trend. Scale will dominate over choice. Future of Choice 17
  • 18. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org It may seem In addition, we are facing greater intervention of an reduction in variety in the consumption of products counterintuitive increasing number of influential bodies and groups and services. As they have in the past impacted but fewer choices provide into the world of retailing which will all align to reduce alcohol and tobacco, so in the next decade they will higher levels our freedom of choice. The media, public opinion and impact other areas of consumption from food and of satisfaction government regulation are moving us towards a fashion to transport. Impacts and Implications As variety reduces some may question whether consumers will miss the old days. I don’t believe so. Some of our recent research at IESE has explored choice from a number of dimensions. It may seem counter- intuitive but fewer choices provide higher levels of satisfaction: People like to have lots of variety, but when faced with too many choices, we tend to vacillate and delay decisions. We may want 31 options instead of six, but we find it easier to choose one of six than one of 31. In a series of experiments with men and women from a range of different cultures we found that the greatest level of satisfaction, both with the final choice and the decision-making process, was reached when people chose from an intermediate number of alternatives as opposed to large or small choice sets. These findings have practical implications for people offering many choices to customers, consumer and employees today. Going forward, I see that this supports my notion that we will see little consumer backlash against a reduction of variety. Moving to the wider impacts of how I see the future of path or finding their own way forward which creates and choice, it is clear that, although some may see my view sustains a unique position in the marketplace. Yes, my as being a little negative from a Western perspective, it views on choice and the mainstream may sound alarm does highlight the dynamics at play across the retail bells for many in the middle market today, but they environment of the next ten years. As we are cognizant should also provide a stimulus for others to think of a world in which less variety is the predominant shift differently about the new competitive landscape. for most, if not all, categories, then, as manufacturers The future of choice is about less variety, but this does and retailers, we can prepare ourselves for a new not mean less interest. The products that will succeed paradigm. With good quality, low-cost, mass in the future will be the ones that offer global customers commoditization the norm for the mainstream, we either what they want, even if it is before they have recognized need to compete on these terms or else migrate to the what that is. The successful retailers of the future will margins. I have highlighted the successful approaches provide consumers with a smaller portfolio of products taken by Spanish Zara and Swedish H&M in the fashion than their predecessors did in the past, but the portfolio industry where they have both developed fast-fashion will be higher selling products. Less variety means fewer as a core capability. There is nothing to stop other SKUs but fewer SKUs mean more efficient retailing. companies in other categories from following the same 18 Future of Choice
  • 19. The future of choice is about less variety, but this does not mean less interest. 19
  • 20. Professor Richard Burdett Centennial Professor in Architecture and Urbanism, London School of Economics Future of Cities 20
  • 21. The Global Challenge The big issues facing cities are clear: Think globalisation, immigration, jobs, social exclusion and sustainability: Although cities Given that global urbanisation is taking place at an unprecedented speed with a scale, diversity, complexity themselves have a remarkable and level of connectivity that challenges all existing perceptions, questions regarding the size, speed of growth, ability to innovate, shape and land use of cities have become increasingly complex and politicised. Although cities themselves there are broad have a remarkable ability to innovate, there are broad disconnects between urban change and urban policy. disconnects between urban The priority, therefore, must be to identify ways in which policy makers can create a regulatory environment change and that provides a framework for sustainable forms of urban development. urban policy. Urban growth is being fuelled by new levels of mobility Even the most advanced firms need cleaners, lorry and migration of diverse populations within and across drivers, and secretaries. How must cities adapt to fit nations especially in China, Brazil and India. These the needs of all? Also how do we adapt to the possibility rural-to-urban migrants are pulled by the tantalizing that we are seeing an internationalised labour market prospects of jobs and opportunity, driven by the harsh for low wage manual and service workers? How do we realities of rural life. Cities like Mumbai experience 42 adapt housing design and create neighbourhoods that people moving into the city per hour. Where do you will benefit local communities and encourage urban house them and what infrastructure do you provide for integration? them? Transport, electricity, sewers and water systems Technological innovation has shrunk the world reducing - these are technical issues that need to be addressed the cost of transmitting to virtually nothing. Internet in a way that is environmentally smart. users in developing countries could constitute more Migration and in-migration has also created an urban than half the world total within 5 years if trends persist. underclass which is often allocated to specific areas of The reality of urban connectivity taken to its logical the city. Paris is a perfect example. The physical conclusion will create a network of interlinked cities infrastructure, with the beauty and qualities that we all connected, and soon to be even more connected, by admire, has frozen. This means that all its growth (with modern rails and technology. Consider also the effects increasing immigration from 1945 and onward) has of mobility and transport systems on social cohesion created ghettoization. This kind of imbalance in social and economic viability. mobility must be addressed. Lastly, any future urban model must of course be The changing nature of work will also impact on the sustainable. If we are to make up for past failures, physical form of cities. The global economy was born cities will have to produce more energy than they need, out of the power of trans-national corporations and become net carbon absorbers, collect and process global communications technologies. How does it affect waste within city limits and collect and clean recycled the way we live? If we focus on the fact that power water. All this should happen in parallel to the creation and communications capacities need to be produced, of wealth and the promotion of social wellbeing and implemented and managed, it becomes clear that cities individual health. still have an important role to play but their layout and functionality may be different. Future of Cities 21
  • 22. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities Can planners Can planners adapt with sufficient speed to create policies which address the challenges we face? There adapt with seems to be a disconnect between the complexity of challenges of the urban age and our current set of urban sufficient speed to create policies solutions. Planners and urban governance must consider re-evaluating how they address the problems they which address face and consider multi-dimensional, integrated interventions rather than specific policies covering specialised the challenges issues (education, health, housing etc). If, for example, housing is going to be a platform for opportunity, then we face? housing policies must connect with education, transportation and childcare; if transportation is going to There seems to be a disconnect promote mobility and advance sustainability, then transportation policies need to expand choice and embrace between the dense, transit rich corridors of mixed residential, retail and employment use. Ultimately, to be successful, we complexity of also need to share innovations across networks of urban researchers, practitioners and policy makers across challenges of the the developed and developing world. urban age and our current set of solutions. We should also consider how we manage the dramatic Can cities address the environmental crisis of global upturn in immigration and address the fight against warming and climate change? Rapid urbanisation has poverty. One billion people live in disease spreading no doubt exacerbated environmental pressures but slums characterized by inadequate housing, unsafe cities offer the best promise of developing in ways that drinking water and open sewer systems. This makes are environmentally sound and energy efficient - a pre- the builders of informal housing the largest housing requisite of global prosperity. The need is to develop developers in the world and it is they who are carbon reduction policies - such as London’s creating the cities of tomorrow. We can plan for this congestion charge, for example, at the same time as “unplanned” inevitability. There are already noticeable improving infrastructure. This is why the planners in success stories; take for example Ciuadad Neza in London are focusing on improving the transport Mexico City where, as hundreds of thousand infrastructure and have committed to reduce C02 immigrants arrive each year, an open-ended and emissions by 60% by 2050 focussing on existing networked community is succeeding in establishing a housing stock which accounts for nearly 40% of lively economy out of literally nothing. Yet cities offer today’s emissions. the promise of ultimately connecting hundreds of millions of workers to the expanding job opportunities offered by the global economy. 22 Future of Cities
  • 23. Proposed Way Forward You can become very depressed about cities of the future when you look at all the challenges facing us. There is little But, the more I go and visit cities and through the work we do at The London School of Economics, the more doubt that, seen through the lens I think that there are solutions. They depend on people rather than policies - it could be a mayor making a of efficiency, decision or a community activist. more densely populated, compact cities New Delhi, for instance, holds 13-14 million people series of young men and women who have worked such as Hong depending on the time of day. It used to have the together to create a communal bathroom (toilet). Kong and highest pollution rates in the world but then overnight all Where people don’t have water and don’t have toilets, Manhattan are the auto-rickshaws and the buses were made to change this place is important because it’s where people meet. inherently more sustainable from diesel to natural gas. If you can use natural gas in They have created a moment of pause in the city. This places to live New Delhi, then why can’t you use it everywhere? is one of many projects that I saw in Mumbai, New than the likes of Delhi and elsewhere which are fantastically powerful Houston and In London we use congestion charge, which is very Mexico City. and are done by individuals. effective in re-prioritizing the traffic. There are clear environmental benefits but a radical social difference is Cities are often at the forefront of the delivery of cultural a 100% increase in bus use by the middle class. If you richness In Mexico city, for example, there is a fantastic get the middle class onto public transport you are initiative which is called the ‘Fallon’, The Lighthouse, winning, and that’s a great example. signifying hope; a stunning project designed by an architect called Callas. Next to it is an area of Tokyo is the largest city in the world. Its transport approximately a million people living under the poorest system, integrated by overhead and underground rail conditions, a lot of them using the nearby rubbish tip as systems, means that the average commute is around a way of living, recycling whatever is there, living at the one hour. Compare that to Los Angeles where the bottom. The Lighthouse is a cultural centre where kids average commute is about two hours and at least 80% learn how to paint and do art. Mexico City is a city of of the population takes the car to work. In Tokyo, 80% enormous violence; people don’t feel safe going out of the population use public transport. There is little and whenever there is a crowd of people together the doubt that, seen through the lens of efficiency, more police try to break it up. So an outdoor music area is a densely populated, compact cities such as Hong Kong no-go area. Outside the Lighthouse they have built a and Manhattan are inherently more sustainable places simple amphitheatre out of earth where they hold music to live than the likes of Houston and Mexico City. concerts in the summer. This does more to lift the However, across the scale empowerment becomes spirits of the community than any policy I ever saw the significant; you need to have a system which allows mayor or the politicians do. At the centre of this is the people on the ground to solve the problems where they physical environment. By designing spaces you can need to be solved. I go through the tiny streets of a make an enormous change. small slum area of the outskirts of Mumbai and I see a Future of Cities 23
  • 24. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications Cities are notjust Perhaps more than ever before, the shape of cities, how much land they occupy, how much energy they a concentration consume, how their transport infrastructure is organised and where people are housed - in remote segregated of problems - but they are also environments behind walls or in integrated neighbourhoods close to jobs, facilities and transport - all affect places where the environmental, economic and social sustainability of global society. Cities are not just a concentration of problems can problems - but they are also places where problems can be solved. be solved. Cities of the future have to be organic, flexible and Creating more compact urban environments generally versatile. As society and aspirations alter over time, the will result in more efficient infrastructures: One direct city has to adapt to change. Utopian cities have never consequence of variation in population density is the worked. The people that created Rome, New York and associated energy demands: Tighter, more compact London certainly didn’t think of them as fixed artifacts cities have far lower energy use per capita than more that wouldn’t change over time. We have to be clever spread out ones: So, as energy costs continue to enough as urban designers to design the city like a escalate and energy security becomes even more of an metabolism, like a body. When it gets older and weaker, issue over the next decade, this inherent design you do corrective surgery. Cities need to be versatile; relationship will come more to the fore. otherwise they fossilize and die. For example, many The quality of a city does not only concern the cities of the last 50 years have been designed around environment. We mustn’t forget that cities are about the needs of the car. But as oil costs soar and the city people coming together. Ultimately a city may be very of the future will increasingly need adapt to modes of efficient in terms of CO2 emission but if the places transportation that are not petrol-dependent. This will where we come together are not beautiful (a word have a significant impact on the shape of the city. which is rarely used in this debate) and if the places In order to be versatile and responsive to change the don’t have a wonderful relationship to urban nature - a sustainable city will also have to be compact. A city like river, water or views that compensate for this human Mexico City, which goes on for 100 kilometers in one closeness, this is not a city that people will want to live direction and 150 kilometers in another, has hardly any in. The qualities I am looking for in a city that is chance of actually becoming sustainable. On the other sustainable, that embraces the notion of versatility, that hand a city like New York or Copenhagen and a city like is compact, that offers bounds of beauty in its buildings London which has highs and lows of density, has the and the quality of its open spaces. potential to become sustainable within the next 30 years. 24 Future of Cities
  • 25. The qualities I am looking for in a city that is sustainable, that embraces the notion of versatility, that is compact, that offers bounds of beauty in its buildings and the quality of its open spaces. 25
  • 26. Jan Färjh Vice President and Head of Ericsson Research Future of Connectivity 26
  • 27. The Global Challenge The internet has finally gone mobile. Today over 300m of us access the web using mobile technology. In 2010 In a couple of the number of subscribers reaches 1bn, surpassing the number of fixed internet users. In a couple of years years the number of mobile the number of mobile broadband connections will be in the order of 4 to 5bn - with the majority of new broadband consumers coming from China and India. By 2020 there may well be as many as 50bn devices connected connections will to each other. These devices will work across different networks which, in turn, will be connected to each be in the order of 4 to 5bn - with other. This global, pervasive connectivity will facilitate new types of services and opportunities for people, the majority of industry, and society but it won’t be an easy journey. Delivering this vision is a major commercial and technical new consumers challenge for the ICT sector, but on the other hand very exciting. coming from China and India. Technology in itself will not be a restricting factor. the potential to bring extraordinary benefits, for some it Transport, access, storage, and processing will all thrive will be a real challenge to adapt to this. Information on on the continued effects of Moore’s law and almost everything is now widely available making miniaturization will continue where beneficial. High industries and markets much more transparent and performing systems are of course an absolute necessity efficient. However, the way consumers share information but the implementation challenge is not straightforward. and communicate with each other, utilizing a variety of We need to consider how to deal with the phenomenal online social networking tools, IPTV, images and video, increase in capacity both in terms of number of devices means that how we give and receive information is to be handled but also in terms of the amount of becoming increasingly personalised. This, in turn, means information that will be exchanged between these that individuals, more than ever before, have to manage devices. Power consumption will also still be an issue their own public identity. This indicates that concerns because of battery lifetime and sustainability concerns. around cyber crime and data protection will continue to So, how can we develop a system that is cost - rise. As a result, security and consumer protection effective, adaptable, easily deployed and, most related issues will become increasingly important. importantly, simple to use? How can we develop Business will also have to adapt to a changing networks that are self-deployed, self-operated and self- environment as their services are increasingly delivered maintained? These questions cannot be answered by online. In a world of endless choice and seemingly technology alone; in order to achieve success we need complete transparency some will be hard put to collaboration between network providers, device differentiate themselves. Of course, communications manufacturers and, of course, policy makers both technology is not in itself a limiting factor for the nationally and internationally. diffusion of new products and services - in fact What will this mean for consumers? Essentially evidence suggests quite the opposite - those who are ubiquitous connectivity will continue to change the basic successful will have made the most of the opportunity. structure and conditions of our lives and, although it has This is why brand identity will continue to dominate. Future of Connectivity 27
  • 28. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities Machine to By 2020 the majority of the world’s population will have access to basic telecommunications services. machine and However, even though the current development pace is high, with more connected devices and availability of process to process internet access “everywhere”, it is still uncertain how fast this will really impact and change conditions for other communications value chains, industries and daily lives. This depends on many factors including the rate at which networks as well as can be rolled out and the connection speeds that will be possible. Where there is connectivity, smart phones tools leveraging and devices will enable people to leapfrog a generation of technology, especially for those who never had a data mining will all flourish as land line phone. Mobile voice increase in developing economies may slow down but these markets will add sustainability local innovation and stay in the forefront with overall growth consistently higher than in mature markets. It is efficiency also likely that Broadband access penetration will increase primarily by means of radio solutions in developing measures will markets outside areas where fixed broadband is economically feasible. be taken across the board and in all We face rising populations and increased dependency represents 2 percent of global CO2 emissions, it has a enterprises. ratios which will be exacerbated by scarcities of clear role to play in reducing the remaining 98 percent resources and environmental requirements. In order to from other sources. Therefore expect a boom in maintain standards of living with substantial and innovation of services to meet this emerging continued global productivity improvements will demand; e-government, e-health, e-education, e-work, be needed. This will partly be enabled by the telepresence, logistics and energy management communication industry and, particularly when services will all increase. Machine-to-machine and combined with other vital industries such as process-to-process communications as well as tools transportation and healthcare, will play an important role leveraging data mining will all flourish as sustainability in addressing this need. For example, scarcity of labour efficiency measures will be taken across the board and can, to an extent, be mitigated if machine to machine in all enterprises. (M2M) communication is used to address labour In the corporate world, there will be a blurring of borders intensive tasks; automation is specific vertical industries between large and small enterprises with large scale can be enabled by connected sensor networks. In companies deploying true global operating models, addition, self-service solutions will also continue to grow increased inter-company collaboration and workers far beyond today’s e-bank and e-retailer services increasingly tele-working and being loosely connected applications into areas such as government and to organizations. As creative knowledge workers healthcare; and, the increased global use of mobile, become strategic assets for companies, IT budgets will video and internet will mean that people can benefit increasingly be geared at making them effective. from the services they need more quickly at less cost. Increased connectivity will enable competitive Sustainability is certainly high on the agenda for the advantages and new business models to be sought next decade and here ICT can make a large from mining massive amounts of data. For instance contribution. As the world measures more or less real-time business intelligence and statistical everything by new sustainability standards, whether experimentation, real-time management of goods in quality of life, business success or government actions, world-wide distribution and logistics chains and targeted there is potential for connectivity to play a significant advertising solutions will all require data systems that role in areas such as carbon mitigation. A recent report will be enabled by falling prices on data storage, (SMART 2020) concluded that, although ICT merely communications and processing. 28 Future of Connectivity
  • 29. User generated content will also probably continue to telecom services revenue streams at the current price Technology in grow strongly, increasing traffic and the abundance of levels. That said, as media consumption continues to itself will not be a limiting factor available information, However, the impact on media become more fragmented an interactive, the gap and there will be value chains and the commercial value of that content between the rapidly growing online share of media time, the introduction is unclear. The online advertising market will grow, but and the online share of the global advertising budget, of many more new products will not be of a magnitude sufficient to substitute will close. and services. Proposed Way Forward Looking to 2020, we see that, while the technology platforms that will enable global ubiquitous connectivity are clear, the way in which businesses, society and individuals use these could vary significantly. Some examples of scenarios that might occur can be described as follows: We see an increased separation between the content As with many scenarios, we see that the way forward and services that people use and the means by which will probably be a hybrid of these. An open application it will be delivered. Companies with strong brands will environment will enable new services and applications shape the communications industry and their services to combine adjacent scientific fields such as energy, could be delivered over the top of independent network food, water, transport, health and ICT - globally and providers and will be tightly integrated with devices. locally. Everything that could benefit from a wireless Simplicity and convenience is the driving force and network will have one. Industries will become brand loyalty will win over variety. increasingly mobilized and there will be an increasing share of services delivered online. Technology in itself The sustainability agenda comes to the fore and will not be a limiting factor and there will be the changes the conditions for societies, companies and introduction of many more new products and services. individuals worldwide. In order to reduce travel and Usability and simplicity will be in high demand, fixed and energy consumption there will be an acceleration of mobile broadband will converge and 50 billion devices new mobile internet services for health, government, will be connected globally. work and machine-to-machine (M2M) operations. Increased regulation will come into place to secure affordable services and drive industry players to pool their resources to ensure that networks are capable, reliable and robust. Future of Connectivity 29
  • 30. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications It is possible Full global connectivity is already well underway. It has already changed the way we communicate with other to suggest people and groups. The amount of information we can share and the speed with which we can share it is that access to advanced increasing rapidly. Indeed, it is possible to suggest that access to advanced communications will be come communications a “universal right” and that a wide and deep penetration of networks and services is a prerequisite for the will be come a continued struggle against climate change and poverty. This suggests that universal services requirements “universal right” will drive new investments in the industry, while measures to keep services affordable (e.g. price regulation) may reduce revenues and profits leading to increased pressure for lower cost and higher efficiency. In the next decade, addressing the major global Most other areas will to some extent be affected by challenges and a continued shift to wireless and online global connectivity: Money, authenticity, transport, travel, services will bring forward new societal vulnerabilities. mHealth, privacy, identity, energy, cities, migration, food, ‘Cyber crime’ and malware may be increasingly water, waste. For all these areas you can find a use for common, and dependencies on the availability of connectivity. Global connectivity can change, improve information and communication systems will increase. and be used to catalyze innovation in everything. Restricted online anonymity and privacy will also raise Real change, however, can only be made when integrity concerns. As a result, security and consumer communication technology is properly integrated into protection related regulation will increase and industries adjacent scientific fields. This will open up new services will move to capture these new opportunities. in a wide range of complementary industries such as IP will be the prevailing delivery vehicle for much of our healthcare, automation, positioning and information connectivity, and the vertical dependence between management. It is clear that everything that can benefit services and infrastructures may gradually disappear. from a network connection will have one. Not only will Users will access services and content independently of more people be connected, but devices for various the network provider to a larger extent. Business types of automated services and functions (e.g. energy models will vary, but lower entry barriers and innovation meters, surveillance, climate sensors, e-health sensors, globally will also increase the number of providers and industry process automation) will exchange data offering the same service - but at a reduced cost to and change lives. consumers of financed by alternative business models, such as increasing advertising revenues. 30 Future of Connectivity
  • 31. It is clear that everything that can benefit from a network connection will have one. 31
  • 32. Dr. Rajiv Kumar Chief Executive, ICRIER Future of Currency 32
  • 33. The Global Challenge I see that greatest challenge for the next decade to be a fundamental one - what should the world’s currencies The status of the be? Over the last century we have seen the rise of the US dollar as the primary unit of global currency which US dollar as the global reserve we use to measure and value much of our relative individual, organisational and national wealth and currency is investments, and through which we exchange, trade and price commodities, businesses, goods and services. however under The status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is however under enormous pressure and, with the enormous pressure rise of new currency blocs in the world, many have been asking whether the Euro will emerge as an alternative reserve currency. The 2008-9 financial crisis put enough pressure on the US currency to such an extent that many now see that we need an alternative, but the question is what? Will the US remain as the pre-eminent financial power or will its influence secularly decline stimulated by the recent crisis and its inability to achieve a major technological breakthrough or exercise the necessary conditions for it to remain a reserve currency? And, if we go for an alternative, why would this be the Euro? By 2020, will we, for instance, therefore see the ACU We also have the impact of replacing printed and (Asian Currency Unit) develop from an Asian Monetary minted money with electronic equivalents: The move to Union to become the third global currency alongside digital money will certainly raise a number of major the Euro and the dollar? While Asia may not be ready issues. Especially as the banking and mobile for a common currency, the time is right to work telecommunications sectors see their interests towards a parallel currency. Furthermore, within this converge in developing more widespread electronic context, would the ACU be pegged to the Yuan or the transactions which will minimise the use of cash, or Yen? And will the Rupee be part of the basket that even traditional credit as we know it, digital money will determines the value of the ACU? These global have increasing applicability. As banks adopt new currency reserve questions are a primary challenge for software and the Bank for International Settlements the world’s economies for the next ten years. develops guidelines for electronic money, its movement across national borders will become practical. However, While I see that this is the main issue, I believe that what is the real pace of the related technologies and during the next decade we will also have to address two who either individually or collectively will emerge as the other significant issues along the way: real driver for this convergence? Given the access gap One of the most important of these is the continuation that still exists for significant proportions of the of money laundering that will increasingly impact the population in many developing nations, will we need to smaller economies as the larger ones take steps to wait for true, near ubiquitous mobile connectivity and minimize the impact on their own systems. Will such 24/7 energy supply before digital money can really countries as Switzerland and The Bahamas, as well as have global impact? other financial havens, finally be brought into the Both of these issues will have impact upon international financial mainstream and stop affording haven status remittances, inter-bank transfers and the many to residents of other countries? Will the advanced associated financial vehicles that are presently in place. economies come together and force the emerging economies to join in the move against laundered and ill gotten wealth? Future of Currency 33
  • 34. What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities De-leveraging is It is certain that for the next decade the US dollar will remain as one of the reserve currencies. As such it will already happening still be a key currency for foreign exchange and a transaction currency for international trade and investments as individuals and governments in 2020. The US dollar will continue to be integrated into, and influential upon, the world economy. across Asia decrease their Over the same period, it is possible, but not highly sustainable in the long term and, as such, a leverage investments in probable, that the Euro will become a major reserve based model cannot continue. The 2008 shock to the the US dollar. currency. Although the European Monetary Union led to global financial system could have significant influence: the public introduction of the Euro in 2002, this was De-leveraging is already happening as individuals and twenty years after the first creation of the ECU as an governments across Asia decrease their investments in artificial basket currency used by participating countries the US dollar. as their internal accounting unit. It is unlikely that, That said, over the next decade, it is unlikely that we will another two decades later, the Euro will have become really see the emergence of the ACU as the third quite as significant a currency as the dollar, but it may currency block. This is because Asians cannot decide not be far off. A world where the Euro has equal status on either a viable collation or leadership by one of the to the dollar as a reserve currency is increasingly countries. As experts, including Jin-Chuan Duan at the credible. National University of Singapore, have highlighted: However, at the same time, it is certain that the Yuan although much debated, Asian Monetary Union looks is emerging as the central focus for economic and unlikely in the short term. Just as with the formation of financial activity in Asia with increasing number of the ERM and the Euro, the realisation of the ACU as a transactions occurring in that currency, though with single regional currency would demand cross subsidy limited convertibility. We have seen the rise of China to via taxation between countries, the loss of autonomy in become the world’s primary economic power. This is the conduct of monetary policy and the partial surrender accompanied by a similar rise of India and the of some national sovereignty: Right now the Asian associated rebalancing of wealth between the West version of the Euro is theoretically possible but and the East. Although the recent economic model has practically far from certain. However, dual currency largely been one where Asians produce goods that are systems are common and I believe that, although Asian bought by Americans using money that is lent back to Monetary Union is improbable by 2020, a parallel them by the Asians, this may not last much longer: As currency ACU that allows for exchange rate a number of commentators, including historian Niall adjustments is practical. But the ACU must be based Ferguson, have argued this ‘Chimerica’ balance is not on a wider basket than just the ASEAN countries. 34 Future of Currency
  • 35. Proposed Way Forward Over the next decade, we will move unmistakably towards a multi-polar world which will be characterized by The introduction a much broader consultative process that extends to a larger number of jurisdictions. Greater coordination of a broad-basket ACU (Asian amongst major economies on financial sector regulation will be needed, and this can be facilitated by the Currency Unit) newly enlarged Financial Stability Board based in Basle. At its core, the coordination will have to be aimed as the third global at achieving greater trust in the transparent and universally applicable working of the financial system. This reserve currency will provide the will especially need to dispel the fear that the global financial system has a bias in favour of any one country world with the or group of countries or group of dominant institutions. As the G20 has superseded the G7, financial opportunity to management of the global system must become more equable: Within this it is possible that a more prominent more appropriately role is given to Special Drawing Rights - the international reserve assets managed by the IMF that currently balance economic influence and amount to over $300 billion. It was used to boost global liquidity in 2009, but additional ongoing and arguably trade. more proactive applications should be made more practical. In a similar manner to how Shell’s current global scenarios Many would correctly suggest that a true single world outline the future for the energy sector, I see that the currency is not practical: Differential interest rates and challenge in the financial world is to also ensure that we selective monetary policies make it impossible and try our best to follow the ‘blueprint’ and not the currency harmonization cannot readily be implemented ‘scramble’ approach: I suggest that we need to while different countries are in different stages of strengthen the global coordination mechanisms to economic development. The IMF is not a super central facilitate the monitoring of global financial flows and bank and turning Special Drawing Rights into a world enable the emergence of new technologies to help currency is neither possible nor practical. However, the balance the system. The major economies represented introduction of a broad basket ACU as the third global in the G20 need to agree to have some arrangement for reserve currency will provide the world with the a universally acceptable reserve currency, starting as a opportunity to more appropriately balance economic unit of account and then also phasing it in as a currency influence and trade. of exchange. I believe that we should adopt such a universally acceptable currency that does not face the risk of being debased as a result of the fiscal and financial indiscipline on the part of any one country. The ACU has the potential to be that currency. But to function as such it must include the Rupee: India is currently the largest economy of South Asia and plays a far more influential role across Asia as a whole than many of the ASEAN countries. The ACU has been seen as a precursor to a common future currency, just as the ECU was for the Euro. Therefore, it is important to focus on how the world will therefore look when this occurs - India is currently poised to be the third largest economy in the world over the next 30 years. Hence the inclusion of India in Asian economic monetary integration is prudent. Future of Currency 35