This study analyzed cost growth for 20 NASA Science Mission Directorate missions launched between 2000-2009. It found that on average, total life cycle costs grew 56% from the beginning of Phase B to launch. Major cost growth occurred in Project Management, Payloads, and Ground Data Systems. The majority of cost growth for most categories occurred after the Critical Design Review phase of development.
Utilizando la información espectral y visión panorámica mediante la interpretación de imágenes satelitales se puede conocer la superficie, forma y distribución de la cobertura de agua y vomo la arcatan las alteraciones en las componentes vegetal y uso de la tierra de grandes áreas. En el trabajo específico con vegetación son empleadas para describir grandes tipos de comunidades (incluso determinar presencia de especies invasoras), estimar su estado hídrico, fenología, niveles de degradación y tasas de productividad. Basado en imágenes de satélites, en el año 2002 se presentó en Argentina el Primer Inventario de Bosques Nativos, que tuvo como objetivo obtener mapas temáticos de cobertura de uso de la tierra, del estado de los bosques (niveles de aprovechamiento y degradación), indicadores de factores ambientales responsables de la alteración de los recursos hidricos
THEOS (Thailand Earth Observation System)
THEOS is an Earth observation mission of Thailand, under development at EADS Astrium SAS, Toulouse, France. In July 2004, EADS Astrium SAS signed a contract for delivery of THEOS with GISTDA (Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency) of Bangkok, Thailand. GISTDA is Thailand's leading national organization (i.e., space agency) in the field of space activities and applications. The Thai Ministry of Science and Technology is funding the program.
The THEOS cooperative agreement includes the production and launch of one optical imaging satellite, as well as the development of the ground segment necessary to operate and control the satellite directly from Thailand. The contract also specifies on-the-job training of Thai engineers as part of the EADS Astrium development team. Also as part of the THEOS program, GISTDA earned the right to receive data from the SPOT-2, 4 and 5 spacecraft of CNES in Thailand, which have many features similar to those of THEOS. The prime objective of THEOS is to provide Thailand with an affordable access to space (i.e., a state-of-the-art Earth observation satellite for the near future), and to spawn through this program's operational experience the country's own capability and infrastructure an indigenous potential for the development of future space missions.
The science objectives call for the provision of:
1) Panchromatic (2 m) and multispectral (15 m) imagery from THEOS observations, and
2) The generation of geo-referenced image products and image processing capabilities for applications in the fields of cartography, land use, agricultural monitoring, forestry management, coastal zone monitoring and flood risk management.
The Thai government has also expressed its intention to offer THEOS data to the disaster mitigation efforts under the International Charter.
This ppt is about the basic information about Remote Sensing and GIS and their Apps. in Environmental Management (Prepared by Mandeep Poonia at GJU S&T, Hisar (Haryana) ,India)
Galaxy Forum SEA 2016 Malaysia - Hakim MalasanILOAHawaii
The 1st Galaxy Forum in Malaysia is being held in cooperation with the Space Science Centre at the National University of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur. The event will be held in Dewan Kuliah Tun Abdullah Mohd Salleh Hall. ANGKASA was founded as a multidisciplinary research institute conducting teaching at postgraduate level and research in the field of;
Space Science: Astronomy, astrophysics, astrobiology, space chemistry, geology and meteorology of the planet
Space Technology: Design and installation of systems for communication, control and drive for rocket and spacecraft
Space Technology Applications: Covering meteorologists field, environmental management, disaster management and land use
Space Governance: Space law and international relations associated with the exploration and use of space
Galaxy Forum is the primary education and outreach initiative of the International Lunar Observatory Association, an architecture designed to advance 21st Century science, education, enterprise and development.
Galaxy Forums are public events specifically geared towards high school teachers, educators, astronomers of all kinds, students and the general public. Presentations are provided by experts in the fields of astrophysics / galaxy research, space exploration and STEM education, as well as related aspects of culture and traditional knowledge. Interactive panel discussions allow for community participation and integration of local perspectives.
Sixty-five Galaxy Forums with a total of almost 300 presentations have been held in 26 locations worldwide (since Galaxy Forum USA, July 4, 2008) including Hawaii, Silicon Valley, Canada, China, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, Europe, Africa, Chile, Brazil, Kansas and New York.
Utilizando la información espectral y visión panorámica mediante la interpretación de imágenes satelitales se puede conocer la superficie, forma y distribución de la cobertura de agua y vomo la arcatan las alteraciones en las componentes vegetal y uso de la tierra de grandes áreas. En el trabajo específico con vegetación son empleadas para describir grandes tipos de comunidades (incluso determinar presencia de especies invasoras), estimar su estado hídrico, fenología, niveles de degradación y tasas de productividad. Basado en imágenes de satélites, en el año 2002 se presentó en Argentina el Primer Inventario de Bosques Nativos, que tuvo como objetivo obtener mapas temáticos de cobertura de uso de la tierra, del estado de los bosques (niveles de aprovechamiento y degradación), indicadores de factores ambientales responsables de la alteración de los recursos hidricos
THEOS (Thailand Earth Observation System)
THEOS is an Earth observation mission of Thailand, under development at EADS Astrium SAS, Toulouse, France. In July 2004, EADS Astrium SAS signed a contract for delivery of THEOS with GISTDA (Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency) of Bangkok, Thailand. GISTDA is Thailand's leading national organization (i.e., space agency) in the field of space activities and applications. The Thai Ministry of Science and Technology is funding the program.
The THEOS cooperative agreement includes the production and launch of one optical imaging satellite, as well as the development of the ground segment necessary to operate and control the satellite directly from Thailand. The contract also specifies on-the-job training of Thai engineers as part of the EADS Astrium development team. Also as part of the THEOS program, GISTDA earned the right to receive data from the SPOT-2, 4 and 5 spacecraft of CNES in Thailand, which have many features similar to those of THEOS. The prime objective of THEOS is to provide Thailand with an affordable access to space (i.e., a state-of-the-art Earth observation satellite for the near future), and to spawn through this program's operational experience the country's own capability and infrastructure an indigenous potential for the development of future space missions.
The science objectives call for the provision of:
1) Panchromatic (2 m) and multispectral (15 m) imagery from THEOS observations, and
2) The generation of geo-referenced image products and image processing capabilities for applications in the fields of cartography, land use, agricultural monitoring, forestry management, coastal zone monitoring and flood risk management.
The Thai government has also expressed its intention to offer THEOS data to the disaster mitigation efforts under the International Charter.
This ppt is about the basic information about Remote Sensing and GIS and their Apps. in Environmental Management (Prepared by Mandeep Poonia at GJU S&T, Hisar (Haryana) ,India)
Galaxy Forum SEA 2016 Malaysia - Hakim MalasanILOAHawaii
The 1st Galaxy Forum in Malaysia is being held in cooperation with the Space Science Centre at the National University of Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur. The event will be held in Dewan Kuliah Tun Abdullah Mohd Salleh Hall. ANGKASA was founded as a multidisciplinary research institute conducting teaching at postgraduate level and research in the field of;
Space Science: Astronomy, astrophysics, astrobiology, space chemistry, geology and meteorology of the planet
Space Technology: Design and installation of systems for communication, control and drive for rocket and spacecraft
Space Technology Applications: Covering meteorologists field, environmental management, disaster management and land use
Space Governance: Space law and international relations associated with the exploration and use of space
Galaxy Forum is the primary education and outreach initiative of the International Lunar Observatory Association, an architecture designed to advance 21st Century science, education, enterprise and development.
Galaxy Forums are public events specifically geared towards high school teachers, educators, astronomers of all kinds, students and the general public. Presentations are provided by experts in the fields of astrophysics / galaxy research, space exploration and STEM education, as well as related aspects of culture and traditional knowledge. Interactive panel discussions allow for community participation and integration of local perspectives.
Sixty-five Galaxy Forums with a total of almost 300 presentations have been held in 26 locations worldwide (since Galaxy Forum USA, July 4, 2008) including Hawaii, Silicon Valley, Canada, China, India, Southeast Asia, Japan, Europe, Africa, Chile, Brazil, Kansas and New York.
Science with small telescopes - exoplanetsguest8aa6ebb
The search for extrasolar planets has become one of the most attractive problems in modern astrophysics. The biggest observatories in the world are involved in this task as well as little amateur instruments. There is also a huge variety of astronomical methods used for their investigation. Here I present the projects for searching for exoplanets by transit method and our observations of the planet WASP-2b. We observed a transit on 3/4 August 2008 with a 354 mm Schmidt-Cassegrain Celestron telescope and CCD SBIG STL 11000M camera. By precise photometry made using MaximDL software we obtained the light curve of the star system. Decrease of brightness by 0.02m is detected. Analyzing our data we estimate the radius of the planet and inclination of its orbit. Our results are in good correlation with the published information in literature.
The extremely high albedo of LTT 9779 b revealed by CHEOPSSérgio Sacani
Optical secondary eclipse measurements of small planets can provide a wealth of information about the reflective properties
of these worlds, but the measurements are particularly challenging to attain because of their relatively shallow depth. If such signals
can be detected and modeled, however, they can provide planetary albedos, thermal characteristics, and information on absorbers in
the upper atmosphere.
Aims. We aim to detect and characterize the optical secondary eclipse of the planet LTT 9779 b using the CHaracterising ExOPlanet
Satellite (CHEOPS) to measure the planetary albedo and search for the signature of atmospheric condensates.
Methods. We observed ten secondary eclipses of the planet with CHEOPS. We carefully analyzed and detrended the light curves using
three independent methods to perform the final astrophysical detrending and eclipse model fitting of the individual and combined light
curves.
Results. Each of our analysis methods yielded statistically similar results, providing a robust detection of the eclipse of LTT 9779 b
with a depth of 115±24 ppm. This surprisingly large depth provides a geometric albedo for the planet of 0.80+0.10
−0.17, consistent with
estimates of radiative-convective models. This value is similar to that of Venus in our own Solar System. When combining the eclipse
from CHEOPS with the measurements from TESS and Spitzer, our global climate models indicate that LTT 9779 b likely has a super
metal-rich atmosphere, with a lower limit of 400× solar being found, and the presence of silicate clouds. The observations also reveal
hints of optical eclipse depth variability, but these have yet to be confirmed.
Conclusions. The results found here in the optical when combined with those in the near-infrared provide the first steps toward
understanding the atmospheric structure and physical processes of ultrahot Neptune worlds that inhabit the Neptune desert.
The James Webb Space Telescope is NASA's next flagship mission. Webb will revolutionize astronomy in the infrared like the Hubble Space Telescope has done for the visible portion of the spectrum over the last 22 years. Webb will reveal the story of the formation of the first starts and galaxies, investigate the processes of planet formation, and trace the origins of life.
Epistemic Interaction - tuning interfaces to provide information for AI supportAlan Dix
Paper presented at SYNERGY workshop at AVI 2024, Genoa, Italy. 3rd June 2024
https://alandix.com/academic/papers/synergy2024-epistemic/
As machine learning integrates deeper into human-computer interactions, the concept of epistemic interaction emerges, aiming to refine these interactions to enhance system adaptability. This approach encourages minor, intentional adjustments in user behaviour to enrich the data available for system learning. This paper introduces epistemic interaction within the context of human-system communication, illustrating how deliberate interaction design can improve system understanding and adaptation. Through concrete examples, we demonstrate the potential of epistemic interaction to significantly advance human-computer interaction by leveraging intuitive human communication strategies to inform system design and functionality, offering a novel pathway for enriching user-system engagements.
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 4. In this session, we will cover Test Manager overview along with SAP heatmap.
The UiPath Test Manager overview with SAP heatmap webinar offers a concise yet comprehensive exploration of the role of a Test Manager within SAP environments, coupled with the utilization of heatmaps for effective testing strategies.
Participants will gain insights into the responsibilities, challenges, and best practices associated with test management in SAP projects. Additionally, the webinar delves into the significance of heatmaps as a visual aid for identifying testing priorities, areas of risk, and resource allocation within SAP landscapes. Through this session, attendees can expect to enhance their understanding of test management principles while learning practical approaches to optimize testing processes in SAP environments using heatmap visualization techniques
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into SAP testing best practices
2. Heatmap utilization for testing
3. Optimization of testing processes
4. Demo
Topics covered:
Execution from the test manager
Orchestrator execution result
Defect reporting
SAP heatmap example with demo
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
Builder.ai Founder Sachin Dev Duggal's Strategic Approach to Create an Innova...Ramesh Iyer
In today's fast-changing business world, Companies that adapt and embrace new ideas often need help to keep up with the competition. However, fostering a culture of innovation takes much work. It takes vision, leadership and willingness to take risks in the right proportion. Sachin Dev Duggal, co-founder of Builder.ai, has perfected the art of this balance, creating a company culture where creativity and growth are nurtured at each stage.
Kubernetes & AI - Beauty and the Beast !?! @KCD Istanbul 2024Tobias Schneck
As AI technology is pushing into IT I was wondering myself, as an “infrastructure container kubernetes guy”, how get this fancy AI technology get managed from an infrastructure operational view? Is it possible to apply our lovely cloud native principals as well? What benefit’s both technologies could bring to each other?
Let me take this questions and provide you a short journey through existing deployment models and use cases for AI software. On practical examples, we discuss what cloud/on-premise strategy we may need for applying it to our own infrastructure to get it to work from an enterprise perspective. I want to give an overview about infrastructure requirements and technologies, what could be beneficial or limiting your AI use cases in an enterprise environment. An interactive Demo will give you some insides, what approaches I got already working for real.
Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey 2024 by 91mobiles.pdf91mobiles
91mobiles recently conducted a Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey in which we asked over 3,000 respondents about the TV they own, aspects they look at on a new TV, and their TV buying preferences.
Smart TV Buyer Insights Survey 2024 by 91mobiles.pdf
Freaner.claude
1. Life Cycle Cost Growth Study
20 Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Missions
Presented at the
2011 NASA Program Management Challenge
9-10 February 2011, Long Beach, California
Claude Freaner, Science Mission Directorate, NASA HQ
1
2. Background
• Previous studies1, 2 have primarily examined Development Cost
Growth in an attempt to determine when in the development
lifecycle the growth occurs
• Growth was studied for 20 SMD Missions launched between 2000
and 2009.
– Mass, Power, Cost, and Schedule were examined
• Launch vehicle and Phase E operations costs (planned versus
actual) have also grown but the amounts/phasing of this growth
were not included in the prior studies
– Current study includes LV and Phase E operations cost
1. “Using Historical NASA Cost and Schedule Growth to Set Future Program and Project Reserve Guidelines”, Bitten R., Emmons D., Freaner C.,
IEEE Aerospace Conference, Big Sky, Montana, March 3-10, 2007
2, “Optimism in Early Conceptual Designs and Its Effect on Cost and Schedule Growth: An Update”, Bitten R., Freaner C., Emmons D., 2010
NASA Program Management Challenge, Galveston, Texas, February 9-10, 2010
2
3. Study Approach
• For a set of 20 missions in the study, the cost data were obtained from
all of the CADRes for missions at ATP (Phase B start), PDR, CDR, and
Launch.
• The cost data was “binned” into these Work Breakdown Structure
(WBS) element categories:
– PMSEMA: Project Management, Systems Engineering, Mission Assurance
– SCI/EPO: Science, Education, Public Outreach
– Payload
– Bus/AIT: Spacecraft Bus, System Assembly Integration and Test
– GDS/MOS: pre-launch Ground Data System, Mission Operations
– L/V: Launch Vehicle
– Phase E: Post-Launch Operations and Data Analysis
• Cost data has not been adjusted for “Full Cost” effects
– Primarily impacts STEREO, CALIPSO, FERMI
The majority of these missions were in development prior to the CADRe requirement existing, so separation of the costs
into the standard WBS Level 2 elements was difficult. Therefore, the elements were combined into the above bins.
3
4. Database Description:
20 Missions Represent a Wide Range of Recent NASA Missions
Key Launch Acquisition Number of
Planetary? Program Science Type Center(s) Year Type Instruments Comments
Advanced land imaging technology
EO-1 NMP Earth Science GSFC 2000 Competed 5
demonstrator
Collect samples of solar wind particles at
GENESIS X Discovery Planetary Science JPL 2001 Competed 4
L1 point and return them to Earth
• 5 Directed vs. 15 GRACE ESSP Earth Science JPL 2002 Competed 6 Earth Gravity Measurement
Competed missions Spitzer
Physics of
the Cosmos
Astrophysics JPL 2003 Directed 4
IR space telescope, the last of the Great
Observatories
GALEX Explorers Astrophysics JPL/CalTech 2003 Competed 1 UV space telescope
SWIFT Explorers Astrophysics GSFC 2004 Competed 4 Gamma Ray burst detector
• 7 Planetary missions MESSENGER X Discovery Planetary Science APL 2004 Competed 7 Investigate Mercury
vs. 13 Earth or near- MRO X MEP Planetary Science JPL 2005 Directed 7 Investigate history of water on Mars
Earth Orbiters Deep Impact X Discovery Planetary Science JPL 2005 Competed 3 Comet impactor
Cloudsat ESSP Earth Science JPL 2006 Competed 1 Radar observation of clouds
2 spacecraft looking at solar dynamics -
STEREO STP Heliospheric Science GSFC/APL 2006 Directed 4
• 7 Planetary Science Earth leading and trailing orbits
CALIPSO ESSP Earth Science LARC 2006 Competed 3 Aerosols
vs. 5 Astrophysics New
X
New
Planetary Science APL 2006 Competed 7 Investigate Pluto
Horizons Frontiers
vs. 5 Earth Science DAWN X Discovery Planetary Science JPL 2007 Competed 2 Investigate Ceres and Vesta protoplanets
vs. 3 Heliophysics AIM Explorers Heliospheric Science LASP 2007 Competed 3 Aeronomy of Ice in Mesosphere
missions Fermi
(GLAST)
Physics of
the Cosmos
Astrophysics GSFC 2008 Directed 2 Gamma Ray Telescope
Interaction between solar wind and
IBEX Explorers Heliospheric Science GSFC 2008 Competed 2
interstellar medium
Kepler Discovery Astrophysics JPL 2009 Competed 1 Search for Earth-sized exoplanets
Robotic ESMD/Planetary
LRO X GSFC 2009 Directed 7 Origin of the Moon
Lunar Science
Carbon Dioxide Investigation. Mission
OCO ESSP Earth Science JPL 2009 Competed 1
failed due to launch vehicle failure
4
5. Composition of Average Life Cycle Cost & Cost Growth
Category as Percent of Distribution of Growth of LCC
Average LCC at Launch From PDR to Launch
Phase E
6%
SCI/EPO
3% SCI/EPO
PMSEM PMSE 2%
Phase E L/V
11%
A MA
9% 7%
12%
L/V
GDS/
17% MOS
Payload 12%
23%
Payload
GDS Bus/AIT 32%
6% 29%
Bus/AIT
31%
5
6. “Portfolio” % Average LCC Cost Growth
Average Cost Growth by Major WBS,
200%
Reserves Not Included (20 Missions)
180%
160%
140%
Percent Growth
120%
100%
80% ATP to LRD
60% 56% PDR to LRD
40%
40%
20%
0%
Largest Percent Growth for PMSEMA & GDS/OS
Growth = (Total LCC at Launch/Total LCC at KDP) -1
Note: ATP is equivalent to KDP-B
6
7. Total Cost Growth ($) by Major WBS Element
(20 Missions)
1,000,000
800,000 Total Growth =
$2.1B
600,000 Total Growth =
$1.6B
400,000
Cost Growth in $K
200,000
ATP to LRD
PDR to LRD
-
(200,000)
(400,000)
Total Cost at
Launch = $7.6B
(600,000)
Reserves shown were planned to cover all growth
(800,000)
Largest Absolute Dollar Growth for Payload & Spacecraft
7
20. Planned Phase E Cost Growth from ATP* (Phase B start)
CALIPSO Excluded from Average
400%
Mission #1
Mission #2
350%
Mission #3
Mission #4
300%
Mission #5
Mission #6
250% Mission #7
Mission #8
200% Mission #9
Mission #10
150% Mission #11
Mission #12
Mission #13
100%
Mission #14
Mission #15
50% 27% 34% Mission #16
11% Mission #17
0%
0% Mission #18
ATP PDR CDR Launch Mission #19
-50% Mission #20
Average
-100%
Majority of Phase E Growth Occurs Prior to CDR
* Note: Reserves not included
20
21. Planned Phase E Cost Growth from PDR*
CALIPSO Excluded from Average
400%
Mission #1
350% Mission #2
Mission #3
300% Mission #4
Mission #5
Mission #6
250%
Mission #7
Mission #8
200% Mission #9
Mission #10
150% Mission #11
Mission #12
Mission #13
100%
Mission #14
Mission #15
50% Mission #16
13% 21%
Mission #17
0%
0% Mission #18
PDR CDR Launch Mission #19
Mission #20
-50%
Average
-100%
Majority of Phase E Growth Occurs Prior to CDR
* Note: Reserves not included
21
22. LCC Growth from ATP* (Phase B start)
(Includes Planned Phase E)
180%
Mission #1
Mission #2
160% Mission #3
Mission #4
140% Mission #5
Mission #6
120% Mission #7
Mission #8
Mission #9
100%
Mission #10
Mission #11
80%
Mission #12
58% Mission #13
60% Mission #14
Mission #15
40% Mission #16
Mission #17
20%
20% Mission #18
9% Mission #19
0% Mission #20
0%
Average
ATP PDR CDR Launch
-20%
Majority of LCC Growth Occurs After CDR
* Note: Reserves not included Growth = Average ((Mission LCC at Launch/Mission LCC at KDP)-1)
22
23. LCC Growth from PDR*
(Includes Planned Phase E)
140%
Mission #1
Mission #2
120% Mission #3
Mission #4
Mission #5
100% Mission #6
Mission #7
Mission #8
80%
Mission #9
Mission #10
60% Mission #11
Mission #12
45%
Mission #13
40% Mission #14
Mission #15
Mission #16
20% Mission #17
10%
Mission #18
0% Mission #19
0%
Mission #20
PDR CDR LRD
Average
-20%
Majority of LCC Growth Occurs After CDR
* Note: Reserves not included Growth = Average ((Mission LCC at Launch/Mission LCC at KDP)-1)
23
24. Reserves Standards
• JPL Flight Project Practices, Rev. 7:
– At PDR, budget reserves must be 25% of cost to go.
– At CDR, budget reserves must be 20% of cost to go.
– At start of ATLO, budget reserves must be 20% of cost to go.
• GSFC “Gold Rules”
– At PDR, budget reserves must be 25% of cost to go.
•LCC growth from PDR to Launch averages 41% of
Total Cost (reserves excluded), not cost to go
•LCC growth from CDR to Launch averages 32% of
Total Cost (reserves excluded), not cost to go
24
25. Probability that 25% Reserves at PDR Are Sufficient
• Growth from PDR to Launch average is 41% (excluding EO-1)
– Standard Deviation = 21%
– Probability that a mission with 25% reserves at PDR will stay within
those reserves by Launch = 22%
– To achieve 70% CL, reserves of 47% would have been needed
• Growth from PDR to Launch average is 45% (including EO-1)
– Standard Deviation = 28%
– Probability that a mission with 25% reserves at PDR will stay within
those reserves by Launch = 23%
– To achieve 70% CL, reserves of 52% would have been needed
25
26. So…Why Do We Have Cost Growth?
• Over-optimism at the start
– Propensity for proposers to be in marketing mode
– Initial Mass estimates are low
• Average Payload Mass Growth PDR-Launch = 77%
– Initial Schedule estimates are short
– Cost… Likely bid to the cost cap or available budget, not what it realistically
takes
• Cost estimators can use wider ranges on parameters for estimating the
input values used for cost risk analysis
– Current Cost risk process appears to be underestimating the resource growth
• Schedule slips
– Average Launch date slip from PDR plan: 13+ Months
– Average Launch date slip from CDR plan: 10- Months
– Majority of schedule slips occur during ATLO.
• “Stuff” happens
– Harder than we thought
– Suppliers have problems
– Things break
– Congress/OMB/NASA HQ change funding profiles
26
27. What Can We Do to Decrease Cost Growth?
• Proper scoping of projects early in conceptual design to provide executable
program plans
• Require better Basis of Estimate
– Require proposers to show relevant actuals from prior missions at the subsystem
level
– “Relevant actuals” means Mass, Power, Cost, Schedule
– Risk assessment and quantification of risk
• Independent validation of instrument resources, and the resulting spacecraft
resources needed to meet mission requirements, would allow more accurate
estimates
• Increase reserves is one possible solution
– Reduces number of missions per year
– Costs will likely rise to beyond the new reserves after a short time.
• Incentivize contracts
– Large rewards to Center/Team for performing to initial budget/schedule
– Punishment
• Easy to apply to Corporations: take away fee, cost share any overruns, etc.
• Difficult to apply to NASA Centers
27
28. The author wishes to express sincere appreciation to Robert E. Bitten and Debra L.
Emmons, The Aerospace Corporation, for their help in the preparation of this presentation.
Electronic copies of this and the two previous studies referenced on slide 2 may be obtained
by sending an email to
claude.freaner@nasa.gov
28
Editor's Notes
The left pie chart says, at launch, on what we spent our money; the right pie chart shows the portion of total growth in cost between PDR and launch, and where the growth occurred.
In the prior studies, Development Cost Growth, excluding L/V and Phase E was 56% from ATP and 37% from PDR.
If MRO is excluded, Average at launch drops to 27%
Excluding EO-1 would lower the average at launch to 6%; EO-1 growth was from $18M to $32MNew Horizons growth was 41%, or growth from $173M to $243M. It should be noted, that at ATP, the expected cost of the L//V was unknown, and the $174M was a placeholder.
Excluding EO-1 reduces average at launch to 11%; excluding New Horizons, lowers it further to 8%
Excluding EO-1 reduces growth from 58% to 53%The point here is that at ATP (KDP-B), reserves of 58% on LCC were needed, not the 25% on development cost only that is the industry standard.
Excluding EO-1 reduces growth at launch from 45% to 41%Only 5 missions out of 20 kept their LCC growth below 25% between PDR and Launch: GRACE (12%), LRO (16%), GENESIS (17%), MRO (23%), NEW HORIZONS (25%)
41% of total cost means reserves at PDR should be around 41%/.85, or around 48%32% of total cost means reserves at CDR should be around 32%/.6, or around 53%
StDev at PDR = 8.2 monthsStDev at CDR = 6.5 months