Djillali BENOUAR1, Jane ROVINS2 1USTHB, Built Environment Research Laboratory (LBE), Alger, Algeria,; 2Executive Director, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk (IRDR) IPO, Beijing, China

1. INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE
IDRC, DAVOS (SWITZERLAND), 26 - 30 August 2012
FORIN OR FAROUT? EXPLORING
MULTIPLE DRIVERS OF DISASTER RISKS
IN AFRICA
Djillali BENOUAR1 and Jane ROVINS2
1. USTHB, Algeria , IRDR Science Committee Member
2. Executive Director, Integrated Research on Disaster Risk
(IRDR)IPO Beijing/ China

2. THE CAUSES OF DISASTERS ARE DRIVEN BY
COMPLEX ENGINEERING, SOCIO-ECONOMIC,
SOCIO-CULTUREL, AND VARIOUS GEOPHYSICAL
FACTORS.
SUCH INTERACTING FACTORS, OCCURING
ACROSS A RANGE OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
SCALES, COMBINE IN SEVERAL WAYS TO
CONFIGURE DISASTERS RISKS;

3. THE DYNAMIC OF SUCH DISASTER RISKS, AND
THEIR CONFIGURATIONS ARE EXPLORED USING
A NEW APPROACH AND METHODOLOGY,
NAMELY FORENSIC DISASTER INVESTIGATIONS
(CALLED FORIN STUDIES)
THE FORENSIC INVESTIGATIONS OF DISASTERS
(FORIN) IS A PART OF THE INTEGRATED
RESEARCH ON DISASTER RISK (IRDR)
PROGRAMME

4. WHY FORENSIC INVESTIGATIONS?
FOUR HYPOTHESES ARE FORMULATED AS:
•NEW AND MORE PROBING RESEARCH AND
UNDERSTANDING OF THE REASONS FOR INCREASE IN
PUBLIC VULNERABILITY AND WIDER EXPOSURE
WOULD ENABLE AND STIMULATE IMPROVED DRR
(RISK REDUCTION HYPOTHESIS)
• NEW AND MORE INTEGRATED AND PARTICIPATORY
RESEARCH REQUIRED TO YIELD MORE USEFUL AND
EFFECTIVE RESULTS (INTEGRATION HYPOTHESIS)

5. WHY FORENSIC INVESTIGATIONS?
•RESPONSIBILITY FOR CONTINUED INCREASE OF
VULNERABILITY AND EXPOSURE IS LOCALLY
SPECIFIC AND DIFFUSE OVER INDIVIDUALS,
ORGANIZATIONS AND OVER TIME
(RESPONSIBILITY HYPOTHESIS)
•THE KNOWLEDGE THAT EXISTS ABOUT
DISASTER RISK REDUCTION HAS NOT BEEN
COMMUNICATED EFECTIVELY
(COMMUNICATION HYPOTHESIS).

6. PRELIMINARY FORENSIC
INVESTIGATIONS OF THE
ALGIERS FLOOD AND MUDFLOW
OF 10 NOVEMBER 2001

7. CASE STUDY: ALGIERS FLOOD AND
MUDFLOW OF 10 NOVEMBER 2001
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH RAINFALL (ABOUT 262
MM IN 24 HOURS) AND HIGH WINDS (120
KM/H) OCCURRED IN THE CITY CENTER OF
ALGIERS (CAPITAL OF ALGERIA) ON 10
NOVEMBER 2001, CAUSING THE LOSS OF
MORE THAN 714 HUMAN LIVES, INJURING
MORE THAN 312, MADE MISSING 116 AND
ABOUT 10 000 WERE HOMELESS, DAMAGING
MORE THAN 1500 HOUSING UNITS.

8. VICTIMS HAD BEEN BURIED UNDER THE MUD OF
2.5 UP TO 10 METER OF THICKNESS IN TRIOLET
AND THE RUBBLE OF THE COLLAPSED HOMES, HIT
BY FALLING TREES AND POWER LINES OR DIED BY
DROWNING IN THE STREETS OF THE CITY.
MORE THAN 350 VEHICULES (CARS AND BUSES)
WERE BURIED UNDER THE MUD WITH THEIR
PASSENGERS. AROUND ONE MILLION CUBIC
METERS OF MUD WERE REMOVED FROM THE CITY
CENTER OF BAB EL OUED.
PRELIMINARY COST
U.S.$ 250 000 000.

9. INTRODUCTION
AS IN MANY RECENT DISASTERS HAD THEIR MAIN
IMPACT IN URBAN AREAS WHERE THERE IS A LARGE
CONCENTRATION OF PEOPLE WITH A HEAVY
DEPENDENCY ON INFRASTRUCTURE AND SERVICES.
THE RAPID URBANISATION, POPULATION INCREASE,
DEVELOPMENT OF CRITICAL ENGINEERING WORKS,
INDUSTRIALISATION OF CITIES WITH MODERN TYPES
OF BUILDINGS AND THE CONCENTRATION OF
POPULATION LIVING IN HAZARDOUS AREAS ARE
MATTER OF GROWING CONCERN, AS THEY ARE LIKELY
TO CONTRIBUTE TO HEAVIER LOSS OF LIFE AND
SERIOUSLY INCREASING THE ECONOMIC LOSSES IN
FUTURE DISASTER DAMAGE.

10. PHYSICAL SITTING
THE DISASTER ZONE OF BAB EL OUED AND ITS
NEIGHBOURHOODS IS MADE UP OF SEVERAL
BASINS CATCHMENTS RECEIVING ALL THE RAINS
ON A DENSE HYDROGRAPHIC NETWORK MADE
UP OF A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF AFFLUENTS
OR THALWEGS WHICH, WHILE CONVERGING,
CONSTITUTE THE OUED ITSELF. IN ALGIERS,
THERE ARE ABOUT 11 OUEDS (SMALL RIVERS IN
ARABIC) THREATENING THIS PART OF THE
CAPITAL AND ALL OF THEM MEET IN BAB EL
OUED ( DOOR OF THE RIVER IN ARABIC) AS
SHOWN IN FIGURE BELOW

11. Physical setting

13. PHYSICAL SETTING
ALGIERS FLOOD AND MUDFLOW
OF 10 NOVEMBER 2001

14. Meteorological aspects of the event
THE OBSERVATIONS OF PRECIPITATIONS RECORDED
DURING THE 9TH AND 10TH OF NOVEMBER 2001 IN
THE URBAN ZONE OF ALGIERS HAD BEEN
EXCEPTIONAL. THE MEASUREMENTS TAKEN IN THE
WEATHER STATIONS OF THE AFFECTED ZONE SHOW
THAT THE QUANTITIES CONSTITUTE RECORDS, SINCE
THE EXISTING RECORDS IN THE WEATHER ARCHIVES
INDICATE THAT SUCH QUANTITIES OVER SUCH
DURATIONS (24 HOURS) WERE NOT OBSERVED IN
THESE SITES OF MEASUREMENT SINCE THEIR
OPENING (ONE HUNDRED YEARS AGO).

15. Quantity in mm recorded in dates and time
indicated
Name Altitude Quantity in mm recorded in dates and time indicated
of in
09/11 at 06h00 to 10/11 at 06h00 10/11 à06h00 to 10/11 at 18h00
station meters
06h00 to 18h00 18h00 to 06h00 06h00 to 12h00 12h00 to 18h00
BOUZARE 344 129.2 132.40
AH
HARBOUR 03 26.9 72.0 109.0
CAP 23 0 262.2
CAXINE

16. IT IS OF INTEREST TO NOTICE THAT THE
EXCEPTIONAL QUANTITY OF 262.2
MILLIMETRES RECORDED AT THE STATION
OF BOUZARÉAH (LOCATED AT THE TOP OF
THE HILL OF ALGIERS), WAS IN ONE 18
HOURS CONTINUOUS DURATION
(BETWEEN 18H00 ON NOVEMBER 9 AND
12H00 ON NOVEMBER 10) AND OF WHICH
THE HALF (132MM) IN ONE DURATION 6
HOURS (06H00 WITH 12H00).

17. Floods, Debris Flows and landslides
ON WEDNESDAY 14, RESCUE WORKERS
REPORTED THAT THEIR WORK WAS HAMPERED
BY LACK OF ACCESS TO THE AFFECTED AREAS IN
THE DENSELY POPULATED DISTRICT, WHERE
MANY ROADS WERE STILL BLOCKED BY HUGE
AMOUNT OF DEBRIS AND MUD. BULLDOZERS
AND OTHER VEHICLES THAT COULD GET ACCESS
WERE TRYING TO DIG THROUGH THREE TO TEN
METERS OF MUD AND DEBRIS.

18. ACCORDING TO WITNESSES, THE DURATION
OF THE FLOODING AT FRAIS VALLON WAS OF
1H 45MN. AT TRIOLET, THE HEIGHT OF WATER
REACHED 2.45 M AND A SPEED OF 6.47 M/S
AND THE FLOODING LASTED MORE THAN 2
HOURS
THE EMPIRIC ESTIMATION OF THE DEBRIS
CARRIED BY THE WATER IS 1000 000 M3.

19. DAMAGE CAUSED
SEVERE DAMAGE HAS BEEN INFLICTED TO
ROADS, HOUSING, SCHOOLS, PORT, BRIDGES,
VEHICLES AND LIFELINES. IN THE WORST HIT
QUARTERS OF ALGIERS, WATER, ELECTRICITY
AND GAS SUPPLIES WERE DISRUPTED. MANY
PEOPLE WERE WASHED AWAY BY WATER
CURRENTS IN THE STREETS WHICH WERE
ACTING AS RIVERS.

32. STATE OF CONSTRUCTIONS IN AFFECTED ZONE
IN BAB EL OUED, THE ANCIENT HOUSING, VERY
DECAYED, IS PREDOMINANT. THE INSPECTED
BUILDINGS PRESENT IN THEIR MAJORITY
FORMER DEGRADATIONS: CRACKING IN
BALCONIES AND WALLS, WOOD CARPENTRY
DETERIORATED AND STAIRCASES PRESENTING
SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATIONS. THE BUILDING
STOCK SUFFERS IN ITS MAJOR PART FROM THE
LACK OF MAINTENANCE.

33. IN BOUZARÉAH AND EL BIAR, THE
« PRECARIOUS » DEWELLING, ILLICIT, IS
PREVALENT. CONSTRUCTIONS BEING BUILT
ON GROUNDS WITH HIGH RISKS:
CRUMBLINGS, LANDSLIDES, BEDS OF
OUEDS. CONCERNING THE DAMAGE, THE
« PRECARIOUS HABITAT » WAS IN MANY
CASES UNDER THE THREAT OF LANDSLIDES;
FLOODS HAVE WEAKENED EVEN MORE THE
SITE. A SIGNIFICANT EROSION,
ACCENTUATED BY THE DEFORESTATION AS
WELL AS AN ANARCHISTIC URBANIZATION.

34. CAUSES
A CATASTROPHE OF SUCH A SCOPE CANNOT
HAVE A SINGLE CAUSE. IT CAN BE ONLY THE
RESULT OF SEVERAL FAILURES. IN FIRST
HAND, THERE IS THE LACK OF A WARNING
SYSTEM. THIS CAN BE CHECKED BY LOOKING
TO THE LIST OF THE VICTIMS TO NOTE THAT
IN MAJORITY THEY DID NOT RESIDE IN THE
ZONES AFFECTED BUT WERE ON TRANSIT. A
SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE VICTIMS ARE
MADE UP OF PEOPLE WHO WERE JOINING
THEIR PLACE OF WORK OR SCHOOLS.

35. CAUSES
THE WILD URBANIZATION OF THE ZONE AFFECTED
RESULTS IN GENERAL FROM THE PASSIVITY AND THE
LAXISM OF THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT WHICH
ALLOWED UNCONSCIOUS CITIZENS TO BUILD
ANYHOW AND ANYWHERE. AMONG THE ABSURDITIES
RAISED BY THE INVESTIGATORS, WE CAN QUOTE THE
FOLLOWING CASES OF CONSTRUCTIONS: - RIGHT IN
THE MIDDLE OF BEDS OF OUEDS.
IN SIDI MEDJBER, IN THE CITY OF BOUZARÉAH, MANY
DWELLINGS WERE CARRIED OR ALMOST ENTIRELY
COVERED WITH MUD. SOMETIMES CONSTRUCTION,
FIRMLY BUILT, DID NOT SUFFER ANY SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGE BUT DEVIATED WATER ON OTHERS WHICH
SUFFERED THE CONSEQUENCES, -

36. CAUSES
•WILD URBANISATION
•LACK OF MAINTENANCE OF THE SEWAGE SYSTEM
•NO PREPAREDNESS
•LACK OF KNOWLEDGE OF FLOOD RISK AT THE
POPULATION AND ADMINISTRATION LEVELS
•NO WARNING SYSTEM
•INDAQUATE COMMUNICATION SYSTEM
•INAPPROPRIATE URBAN PLANNING LEGISLATION, ETC
•LACK OF A CLEAR DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
•ETC.

38. Lack of maintenance of sewage system

39. Lack of maintenance of sewage system

40. Lack of maintenance of Sewage System

41. Lack of maintenance of sewage system

42. CONCLUSION
THE OBJECTIVE OF A FORENSIC INVESTIGATION OF
DISASTERS IS TO DIG MORE DEEPLY INTO THE
CAUSES OF DISASTERS IN AN INTEGRATED,
COMPREHENSIVE, TRANSPARENT, AND
INVESTIGATIVE OR FORENSIC STYLE.
TO ESTABLISH A SOUND BASIS FOR ANALYSIS,
FORIN RELIES UPON THE ACTUAL EVIDENCE
FOUND AND APPLIED SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGIES
AND PRINCIPLES TO INTERPRET THE DISASTER IN
ALL ITS FACETS

43. IRDR FORIN PROGRAMME
THE FORIN IRDR PROGRAMME FOR
FORENSIC INVESTIGATIONS IS INTENDED
TO DEVELOP A TEMPLATE WHICH WILL
BE MORE THAN A GUIDE FOR CASE
STUDIES IN A NARROW SCHOLARLY OR
SCIENTIFIC SENSE; THE ANALYSIS
REQUIRES THE SIMULATANEOUS
APPLICATION OF SEVERAL DISCIPLINES;

44. OBJECTIVES OF FORIN INVESTIGATIONS
1. TO GUIDE POLICY ACROSS AND INVOLVING ALL
KEY DISCIPLINES
2. TO EFFECTIVELY COMMUNICATE THE CAUSES OF
DISASTERS
3. TO INDENTIFY SITUATIONS WHERE
DEVELOPMENT INITIATIVES CAN BECOME
CAUSAL FACTORS IN DISASTERS
4. TO PROMOTE SUSTAINABLE RISK
MANAGEMENT AND RISK REDUCTION
THROUGH SCIENCE6BASED RESEARCH AND
FINDINGS

45. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR
YOUR ATTENTION