Prediction of solid waste generation is critical for any long term sustainable waste management, especially of a fast-growing municipality. Lack of, or inaccurate solid waste generation records poses unparalleled challenges in developing cohesive and workable waste management strategies for any concerned authorities, as this is influenced by several interlinked demo-graphic, economic, and socio-cultural factors. The objective of this study was to compare two models in forecasting of MSW generation and how this would be built into an effective MSW management program. Two models, the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA 1,1) and the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) were tested for their ability to predict weekly waste generation of 14 households in Juba Town, Central Equatoria State (CES), South Sudan. Results showed that both the artificial intelligence model ANNs and the traditional ARMA model had good prediction performances; where for ANNs the RMSE, MAPE and r² were 0.080, 10.64%, 0.238 respectively, whereas for ARMA the RMSE, MAPE and r² were 0.102, 6.98% and 0.274 respectively. Both models showed no significant differences and could be therefore be used for Solid Waste (SW) forecasting. Based on the results, the weekly SW generated 52 weeks later (end of year) had reached 0.365 kg/capita indicating a 18.2% rise from 0.3 kg/capita at the start of the study. Under the current consumption rate, the weekly SW per capita in Juba Town is expected to reach 0.596 kg by 2020.
This document discusses modeling industrial production (IP) using ARMA and VAR models. It contains the following key points:
1. An ARMA(4,11) model is selected to model IP based on it having the lowest SIC and BIC values as well as a simple parameterization. The model fits the data well with stationary fluctuations around a constant mean.
2. Additional explanatory variables of housing starts, industrial materials, manufacturing & trade sales, and unemployment are added to the ARMA(5,12) model, improving the fit.
3. The multivariate model is used to generate dynamic forecasts of IP through 2015. Impulse response functions show how the 5 variables respond to a standardized shock in
Dr Alma McCarthy, Discipline of Management, gave this workshop on how to manage the PhD journey at the 2017 Whitaker Institute PhD Forum on the 24th May 2017 at NUI Galway.
2012.09.18 exploring the glocalization of activism and empowermentNUI Galway
This document discusses the concept of "glocalization" and how it relates to globalization and local activism. It proposes that glocalization represents the globalization of ideology to adapt to and shape local conditions through localized fantasies. These localized fantasies paradoxically reinforce ideologies of global capitalism by making them seem localized and unique to a particular cultural context. One example discussed is the "Beijing Consensus," which presents China's transition to capitalism as culturally specific and empowering to the nation. The document suggests future research could further examine competing localized fantasies of capitalism and how resistance and activism are also being shaped by these fantasies.
2013.06.18 Time Series Analysis Workshop ..Applications in Physiology, Climat...NUI Galway
Professor Dimitris Kugiumtzis, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, presented this workshop on nonlinear analysis of time series as part of the Summer School on Modern Statisitical Analysis and Computational Methods hosted by the Social Sciences Compuing Hub at the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway on 17th-19th June 2013.
The document is a project report modeling the US Industrial Production Index using ARMA and VAR models. It includes plots of the IPI data and autocorrelation function. An ARMA(4,11) model is selected based on having the lowest SIC and BIC values compared to other ARMA combinations. The model output shows most coefficients are statistically significant with R-squared of 0.98.
2017.03.09 innovation and why it matters more in the 21st century than ever b...NUI Galway
Dr Bettina von Stamm, Innovation Leadership Forum, presented this masterclass entitled "Innovation: Why It Matters More In the 21st Century Than Ever Before" as part of the All-Island Innovation Programme at NUI Galway on the 9th of March 2017.
The document discusses using an ARMA model to forecast inflation in Pakistan. It presents monthly CPI data from 1989-2013 to develop the model. The best fitting ARMA model included autoregressive and moving average terms and was used to project CPI values for the next year. The projections estimated CPI would increase modestly each month through June 2014, with percentage changes ranging from 0.3% to 1.0%. The model is best for short-term forecasts and should be re-run quarterly to revise projections.
2017.02.08 The Darkside of Enterprise Social MediaNUI Galway
Dr Eoin Whelan, from the Agile & Open Innovation research cluster, presented this seminar entitled "The Darkside of Enterprise Social Media" as part of the Whitaker Institute's Ideas Forum seminar series on 8th February 2017.
This document discusses modeling industrial production (IP) using ARMA and VAR models. It contains the following key points:
1. An ARMA(4,11) model is selected to model IP based on it having the lowest SIC and BIC values as well as a simple parameterization. The model fits the data well with stationary fluctuations around a constant mean.
2. Additional explanatory variables of housing starts, industrial materials, manufacturing & trade sales, and unemployment are added to the ARMA(5,12) model, improving the fit.
3. The multivariate model is used to generate dynamic forecasts of IP through 2015. Impulse response functions show how the 5 variables respond to a standardized shock in
Dr Alma McCarthy, Discipline of Management, gave this workshop on how to manage the PhD journey at the 2017 Whitaker Institute PhD Forum on the 24th May 2017 at NUI Galway.
2012.09.18 exploring the glocalization of activism and empowermentNUI Galway
This document discusses the concept of "glocalization" and how it relates to globalization and local activism. It proposes that glocalization represents the globalization of ideology to adapt to and shape local conditions through localized fantasies. These localized fantasies paradoxically reinforce ideologies of global capitalism by making them seem localized and unique to a particular cultural context. One example discussed is the "Beijing Consensus," which presents China's transition to capitalism as culturally specific and empowering to the nation. The document suggests future research could further examine competing localized fantasies of capitalism and how resistance and activism are also being shaped by these fantasies.
2013.06.18 Time Series Analysis Workshop ..Applications in Physiology, Climat...NUI Galway
Professor Dimitris Kugiumtzis, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece, presented this workshop on nonlinear analysis of time series as part of the Summer School on Modern Statisitical Analysis and Computational Methods hosted by the Social Sciences Compuing Hub at the Whitaker Institute, NUI Galway on 17th-19th June 2013.
The document is a project report modeling the US Industrial Production Index using ARMA and VAR models. It includes plots of the IPI data and autocorrelation function. An ARMA(4,11) model is selected based on having the lowest SIC and BIC values compared to other ARMA combinations. The model output shows most coefficients are statistically significant with R-squared of 0.98.
2017.03.09 innovation and why it matters more in the 21st century than ever b...NUI Galway
Dr Bettina von Stamm, Innovation Leadership Forum, presented this masterclass entitled "Innovation: Why It Matters More In the 21st Century Than Ever Before" as part of the All-Island Innovation Programme at NUI Galway on the 9th of March 2017.
The document discusses using an ARMA model to forecast inflation in Pakistan. It presents monthly CPI data from 1989-2013 to develop the model. The best fitting ARMA model included autoregressive and moving average terms and was used to project CPI values for the next year. The projections estimated CPI would increase modestly each month through June 2014, with percentage changes ranging from 0.3% to 1.0%. The model is best for short-term forecasts and should be re-run quarterly to revise projections.
2017.02.08 The Darkside of Enterprise Social MediaNUI Galway
Dr Eoin Whelan, from the Agile & Open Innovation research cluster, presented this seminar entitled "The Darkside of Enterprise Social Media" as part of the Whitaker Institute's Ideas Forum seminar series on 8th February 2017.
This document outlines a study that compares different methods for forecasting electrical load, including seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANN), and ensemble techniques. SARIMA models with different parameters were developed for household, business, industry, and public electrical load data. The SARIMA models were then combined using ANN to create ensemble forecasts. The ensembles generally outperformed individual SARIMA models according to error metrics, with ANN ensembles performing best overall except for household load. The study concludes that ensemble techniques like ANN can improve electrical load forecasting compared to single methods.
Application Of Artificial Neural Networks In Civil EngineeringJanelle Martinez
The document is a seminar report on applications of artificial neural networks in civil engineering. It discusses the structure and basic components of biological and artificial neurons. It also describes the basic steps to design an artificial neural network, including arranging neurons in layers, deciding connections between layers and neurons, and determining connection weights through training. Finally, it covers several learning techniques used to train neural networks, including backpropagation, radial basis functions, and reinforcement learning.
Applications of Artificial Neural Networks in Civil EngineeringPramey Zode
An artificial brain-like network based on certain mathematical algorithms developed using a numerical computing environment is called as an ‘Artificial Neural Network (ANN)’. Many civil engineering problems which need understanding of physical processes are found to be time consuming and inaccurate to evaluate using conventional approaches. In this regard, many ANNs have been seen as a reliable and practical alternative to solve such problems. Literature review reveals that ANNs have already being used in solving numerous civil engineering problems. This study explains some cases where ANNs have been used and its future scope is also discussed.
The International Journal of Engineering and Science (The IJES)theijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
IRJET- Rainfall Simulation using ANN based Generealized Feed Forward and MLR ...IRJET Journal
This document describes a study that developed artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models to simulate daily monsoon rainfall in Satna, India. 31 generalized feed forward (GFF) ANN models and 12 MLR models were developed using rainfall and meteorological data from 2004-2013 as inputs. The models were trained on 2004-2011 data and tested on 2012-2013 data. Performance was evaluated using various statistical indices. The best performing models based on their input-output combinations are presented. The study aims to find accurate rainfall prediction models for water resource management applications in the region.
Multi-task learning using non-linear autoregressive models and recurrent neur...IJECEIAES
Tide level forecasting plays an important role in environmental management and development. Current tide level forecasting methods are usually implemented for solving single task problems, that is, a model built based on the tide level data at an individual location is only used to forecast tide level of the same location but is not used for tide forecasting at another location. This study proposes a new method for tide level prediction at multiple locations simultaneously. The method combines nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and incorporates them into a multi-task learning (MTL) framework. Experiments are designed and performed to compare single task learning (STL) and MTL with and without using non-linear autoregressive models. Three different RNN variants, namely, long short- term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) are employed together with non-linear autoregressive models. A case study on tide level forecasting at many different geographical locations (5 to 11 locations) is conducted. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed architectures outperform the classical single-task prediction methods.
This document discusses forecasting daily runoff using artificial neural networks (ANN). It presents research applying ANN models to the Gunjwani watershed in India. The document describes developing ANN and multiple linear regression models using rainfall, runoff, evaporation, humidity and temperature data from the watershed. It evaluates the models based on statistical performance criteria like mean square error, mean absolute error and correlation coefficient. The results show that the multi-layer perceptron ANN model provided a better forecast of runoff compared to the multiple linear regression models.
Neural wavelet based hybrid model for short-term load forecastingAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that proposes a neural-wavelet based hybrid model for short-term load forecasting. The paper introduces neural networks and how they can be used for electric load forecasting. It then proposes a model that uses wavelet transforms for preprocessing the original load signal data into different levels, before inputting these into a neural network for short-term load forecasting. The model is tested and results show the neural-wavelet model provides more accurate forecasts than an artificial neural network alone.
Comparative Analysis of Terrestrial Rain Attenuation at Ku band for Stations ...IRJET Journal
This document discusses rain attenuation prediction models for terrestrial radio communication systems in Southwestern Nigeria. It analyzes measured daily rainfall data from four stations in the region and compares it to predictions from several models, including ITU-R, Abdulrahman, Silver Mello, and Moupfouma. The Abdulrahman model best predicted the measured data, followed by Silver Mello and ITU-R models. The Moupfouma model significantly overestimated rainfall. The poor performance of ITU-R and Moupfouma models is likely because they were developed using data from temperate regions rather than the tropics. More accurate regional prediction models are needed.
Complexity Neural Networks for Estimating Flood Process in Internet-of-Things...Dr. Amarjeet Singh
With the advancement of the Internet of Things (IoT)-based water conservation computerization, hydrological data is increasingly enriched. Considering the ability of deep learning on complex features extraction, we proposed a flood process forecastin gmodel based on Convolution Neural Network(CNN) with two-dimension(2D) convolutional operation. At first, we imported the spatial-temporal rainfall features of the Xixian basin. Subsequently, extensive experiments were carried out to determine the optimal hyperparameters of the proposed CNN flood forecasting model.
Underwater localization and node mobility estimationIJECEIAES
In this paper, localizing a moving node in the context of underwater wireless sensor networks (UWSNs) is considered. Most existing algorithms have had designed to work with a static node in the networks. However, in practical case, the node is dynamic due to relative motion between the transmitter and receiver. The main idea is to record the time of arrival message (ToA) stamp and estimating the drift in the sampling frequency accordingly. It should be emphasized that, the channel conditions such as multipath and delay spread, and ambient noise is considered to make the system pragmatic. A joint prediction of the node mobility and speed are estimated based on the sampling frequency offset estimation. This sampling frequency offset drift is detected based on correlating an anticipated window in the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) of the received packet. The range and the distance of the mobile node is predicted from estimating the speed at the received packet and reused in the position estimation algorithm. The underwater acoustic channel is considered in this paper with 8 paths and maximum delay spread of 48 ms to simulate a pragmatic case. The performance is evaluated by adopting different nodes speeds in the simulation in two scenarios of expansion and compression. The results show that the proposed algorithm has a stable profile in the presence of severe channel conditions. Also, the result shows that the maximum speed that can be adopted in this algorithm is 9 km/h and the expansion case profile is more stable than the compression scenario. In addition, a comparison with a dynamic triangular algorithm (DTN) is presented in order to evaluate the proposed system.
Wavelet neural network conjunction model in flow forecasting of subhimalayan ...iaemedu
This document summarizes a study that uses a wavelet-neural network (WLNN) conjunction model for river flow forecasting of the Brahmaputra River in India. The model decomposes river discharge time series data into multiresolution time series using discrete wavelet transforms. These decomposed time series are then used as inputs to an artificial neural network (ANN) to forecast river flows at different lead times. The results of the WLNN model are compared to those of a single ANN model. The WLNN model is found to provide more accurate and consistent predictions than the ANN model alone due to its use of multiresolution time series data as inputs.
RAINFALL PREDICTION USING DATA MINING TECHNIQUES - A SURVEYcscpconf
The document discusses techniques for rainfall prediction using data mining. It provides an overview of various data mining techniques that have been used for rainfall forecasting, including neural networks and SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) time series models. The document then describes applying both a multilayer perceptron neural network and SARIMA models to monthly rainfall data from regions in India to perform forecasting, and comparing the results of the two techniques.
RAINFALL PREDICTION USING DATA MINING TECHNIQUES - A SURVEYcsandit
Rainfall is considered as one of the major components of the hydrological process; it takes
significant part in evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have an
accurate model for rainfall prediction. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches have
been investigated to perform such forecasting tasks as multilayer perceptron neural networks
(MLP-NN). In fact, the rainfall time series modeling (SARIMA) involvesimportant temporal
dimensions. In order to evaluate the incomes of both models, statistical parameters were used to
make the comparison between the two models. These parameters include the Root Mean Square
Error RMSE, Mean Absolute Error MAE, Coefficient Of Correlation CC and BIAS. Two-Third
of the data was used for training the model and One-third for testing.
International Journal of Engineering and Science Invention (IJESI)inventionjournals
International Journal of Engineering and Science Invention (IJESI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJESI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Engineering Science and Technology, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
A Review on Wireless Sensor Network Protocol for Disaster ManagementEditor IJCATR
Disasters management and emergency services
warning , landslide monitoring, earthquake rescue operation , volcano monitoring, and fire protection. Timely report and res
especially important for reducing the number of sufferers and damages from incidents. In such cases, the communicati
may not function well. This makes it hard to gain information about the incident, and then to respond to the incident rapi
properly. Sensor networks can provide a good solution to these problems through actively monitoring and
emergency incidents to base station. Our objective on this topic aim to study different sensor network protocols to resolve
technical problems in this area, thus identify the energy efficient wireless sensor network archite
disaster management . We also analyze the WSN protocol based on metrics such as Energy efficiency, location awareness, network
lifetime. It furthermore focuses the advantages and performance for disaster management.
Convergence Problems Of Contingency Analysis In Electrical Power Transmission...CSCJournals
Contingency analysis is a tool used by power system engineers for planning and assessing
power system reliability. The conventional analytical method which is mathematical model based,
is not only tedious and time consuming in view of the large number of components in the network
but always left some critical components unassessed due to non-convergence of the power flow
analysis of such, hence the contingency analysis of such system could not be said to be
completed.
In this work, contingency analysis of line components of a standard IEEE-30 Bus and real 330-kV
Nigerian Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) network (28Bus) systems were investigated
using Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF-NN) which is artificial intelligence based.
The contingency analysis was carried out by solving the non-linear algebraic equations of steady
state model for the standard IEEE-30 Bus and TCN-28 Bus power networks using NewtonRaphson
(N-R) power flow method. RBF-NN method was used for the computation of Reactive
and Active performance indices (PIR and PIA ) which were ranked in order to reveal the criticality
of each line outage. Simulation was carried out using MATLAB R2013a version. The nonconverged
lines in both systems were reinforced and re-analysed. The results of contingency
analyses of the reinforced systems show more robust systems with complete line ranking.
The document summarizes a study comparing time series and artificial neural network (ANN) methods for short-term load forecasting of Covenant University, Nigeria. Load data from October 15-16, 2012 was used to develop forecasting models using moving average, exponential smoothing (time series methods) and ANN. The ANN model with inputs of previous load, time of day, day of week and weekday/weekend proved most accurate with a mean absolute deviation of 0.225, mean squared error of 0.095 and mean absolute percent error of 8.25, making it the best forecasting method according to the error measurements.
APPLICATION OF GENE EXPRESSION PROGRAMMING IN FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSISMohd Danish
This document discusses different methods for flood frequency analysis, including Gumbel's method, artificial neural networks (ANN), and gene expression programming (GEP). Gumbel's method is widely used in India to predict flood peaks. ANN and GEP are artificial intelligence techniques that have been applied to hydraulic engineering problems in recent decades. The document focuses on applying GEP to flood frequency analysis of the Ganga River at Hardwar, India. GEP is implemented to derive a relationship between peak flood discharge and return period. The results of GEP are promising and suggest it is a useful alternative to more conventional flood frequency analysis methods.
Evaluation of Agro-morphological Performances of Hybrid Varieties of Chili Pe...Premier Publishers
In Benin, chilli pepper is a widely consumed as vegetable whose production requires the use of performant varieties. This work assessed, at Parakou and Malanville, the performance of six F1 hybrids of chilli including five imported (Laali, Laser, Nandi, Kranti, Nandita) and one local (De cayenne), in completely randomized block design at four replications and 15 plants per elementary plot. Agro-morphological data were collected and submitted to analysis of variance and factor analysis of mixed data. The results showed the effects of variety, location and their interactions were highly significant for most of the growth, earliness and yield traits. Imported hybrid varieties showed the best performances compared to the local one. Multivariate analysis revealed that 'De cayenne' was earlier, short in size, thin-stemmed, red fruits and less yielding (≈ 1 t.ha-1). The imported hybrids LaaliF1 and KrantiF1 were of strong vegetative vigor, more yielding (> 6 t.ha-1) by developing larger, long and hard fruits. Other hybrids showed intermediate performances. This study highlighted the importance of imported hybrids in improving yield and preservation of chili fruits. However, stability and adaptation analyses to local conditions are necessary for their adoption.
An Empirical Approach for the Variation in Capital Market Price Changes Premier Publishers
The chances of an investor in the stock market depends mainly on some certain decisions in respect to equilibrium prices, which is the condition of a system competing favorably and effectively. This paper considered a stochastic model which was latter transformed to non-linear ordinary differential equation where stock volatility was used as a key parameter. The analytical solution was obtained which determined the equilibrium prices. A theorem was developed and proved to show that the proposed mathematical model follows a normal distribution since it has a symmetric property. Finally, graphical results were presented and the effects of the relevant parameters were discussed.
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This document outlines a study that compares different methods for forecasting electrical load, including seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models, artificial neural networks (ANN), and ensemble techniques. SARIMA models with different parameters were developed for household, business, industry, and public electrical load data. The SARIMA models were then combined using ANN to create ensemble forecasts. The ensembles generally outperformed individual SARIMA models according to error metrics, with ANN ensembles performing best overall except for household load. The study concludes that ensemble techniques like ANN can improve electrical load forecasting compared to single methods.
Application Of Artificial Neural Networks In Civil EngineeringJanelle Martinez
The document is a seminar report on applications of artificial neural networks in civil engineering. It discusses the structure and basic components of biological and artificial neurons. It also describes the basic steps to design an artificial neural network, including arranging neurons in layers, deciding connections between layers and neurons, and determining connection weights through training. Finally, it covers several learning techniques used to train neural networks, including backpropagation, radial basis functions, and reinforcement learning.
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An artificial brain-like network based on certain mathematical algorithms developed using a numerical computing environment is called as an ‘Artificial Neural Network (ANN)’. Many civil engineering problems which need understanding of physical processes are found to be time consuming and inaccurate to evaluate using conventional approaches. In this regard, many ANNs have been seen as a reliable and practical alternative to solve such problems. Literature review reveals that ANNs have already being used in solving numerous civil engineering problems. This study explains some cases where ANNs have been used and its future scope is also discussed.
The International Journal of Engineering and Science (The IJES)theijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
IRJET- Rainfall Simulation using ANN based Generealized Feed Forward and MLR ...IRJET Journal
This document describes a study that developed artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models to simulate daily monsoon rainfall in Satna, India. 31 generalized feed forward (GFF) ANN models and 12 MLR models were developed using rainfall and meteorological data from 2004-2013 as inputs. The models were trained on 2004-2011 data and tested on 2012-2013 data. Performance was evaluated using various statistical indices. The best performing models based on their input-output combinations are presented. The study aims to find accurate rainfall prediction models for water resource management applications in the region.
Multi-task learning using non-linear autoregressive models and recurrent neur...IJECEIAES
Tide level forecasting plays an important role in environmental management and development. Current tide level forecasting methods are usually implemented for solving single task problems, that is, a model built based on the tide level data at an individual location is only used to forecast tide level of the same location but is not used for tide forecasting at another location. This study proposes a new method for tide level prediction at multiple locations simultaneously. The method combines nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous inputs (NARMAX) model and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and incorporates them into a multi-task learning (MTL) framework. Experiments are designed and performed to compare single task learning (STL) and MTL with and without using non-linear autoregressive models. Three different RNN variants, namely, long short- term memory (LSTM), gated recurrent unit (GRU) and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) are employed together with non-linear autoregressive models. A case study on tide level forecasting at many different geographical locations (5 to 11 locations) is conducted. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed architectures outperform the classical single-task prediction methods.
This document discusses forecasting daily runoff using artificial neural networks (ANN). It presents research applying ANN models to the Gunjwani watershed in India. The document describes developing ANN and multiple linear regression models using rainfall, runoff, evaporation, humidity and temperature data from the watershed. It evaluates the models based on statistical performance criteria like mean square error, mean absolute error and correlation coefficient. The results show that the multi-layer perceptron ANN model provided a better forecast of runoff compared to the multiple linear regression models.
Neural wavelet based hybrid model for short-term load forecastingAlexander Decker
This document summarizes a research paper that proposes a neural-wavelet based hybrid model for short-term load forecasting. The paper introduces neural networks and how they can be used for electric load forecasting. It then proposes a model that uses wavelet transforms for preprocessing the original load signal data into different levels, before inputting these into a neural network for short-term load forecasting. The model is tested and results show the neural-wavelet model provides more accurate forecasts than an artificial neural network alone.
Comparative Analysis of Terrestrial Rain Attenuation at Ku band for Stations ...IRJET Journal
This document discusses rain attenuation prediction models for terrestrial radio communication systems in Southwestern Nigeria. It analyzes measured daily rainfall data from four stations in the region and compares it to predictions from several models, including ITU-R, Abdulrahman, Silver Mello, and Moupfouma. The Abdulrahman model best predicted the measured data, followed by Silver Mello and ITU-R models. The Moupfouma model significantly overestimated rainfall. The poor performance of ITU-R and Moupfouma models is likely because they were developed using data from temperate regions rather than the tropics. More accurate regional prediction models are needed.
Complexity Neural Networks for Estimating Flood Process in Internet-of-Things...Dr. Amarjeet Singh
With the advancement of the Internet of Things (IoT)-based water conservation computerization, hydrological data is increasingly enriched. Considering the ability of deep learning on complex features extraction, we proposed a flood process forecastin gmodel based on Convolution Neural Network(CNN) with two-dimension(2D) convolutional operation. At first, we imported the spatial-temporal rainfall features of the Xixian basin. Subsequently, extensive experiments were carried out to determine the optimal hyperparameters of the proposed CNN flood forecasting model.
Underwater localization and node mobility estimationIJECEIAES
In this paper, localizing a moving node in the context of underwater wireless sensor networks (UWSNs) is considered. Most existing algorithms have had designed to work with a static node in the networks. However, in practical case, the node is dynamic due to relative motion between the transmitter and receiver. The main idea is to record the time of arrival message (ToA) stamp and estimating the drift in the sampling frequency accordingly. It should be emphasized that, the channel conditions such as multipath and delay spread, and ambient noise is considered to make the system pragmatic. A joint prediction of the node mobility and speed are estimated based on the sampling frequency offset estimation. This sampling frequency offset drift is detected based on correlating an anticipated window in the orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) of the received packet. The range and the distance of the mobile node is predicted from estimating the speed at the received packet and reused in the position estimation algorithm. The underwater acoustic channel is considered in this paper with 8 paths and maximum delay spread of 48 ms to simulate a pragmatic case. The performance is evaluated by adopting different nodes speeds in the simulation in two scenarios of expansion and compression. The results show that the proposed algorithm has a stable profile in the presence of severe channel conditions. Also, the result shows that the maximum speed that can be adopted in this algorithm is 9 km/h and the expansion case profile is more stable than the compression scenario. In addition, a comparison with a dynamic triangular algorithm (DTN) is presented in order to evaluate the proposed system.
Wavelet neural network conjunction model in flow forecasting of subhimalayan ...iaemedu
This document summarizes a study that uses a wavelet-neural network (WLNN) conjunction model for river flow forecasting of the Brahmaputra River in India. The model decomposes river discharge time series data into multiresolution time series using discrete wavelet transforms. These decomposed time series are then used as inputs to an artificial neural network (ANN) to forecast river flows at different lead times. The results of the WLNN model are compared to those of a single ANN model. The WLNN model is found to provide more accurate and consistent predictions than the ANN model alone due to its use of multiresolution time series data as inputs.
RAINFALL PREDICTION USING DATA MINING TECHNIQUES - A SURVEYcscpconf
The document discusses techniques for rainfall prediction using data mining. It provides an overview of various data mining techniques that have been used for rainfall forecasting, including neural networks and SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) time series models. The document then describes applying both a multilayer perceptron neural network and SARIMA models to monthly rainfall data from regions in India to perform forecasting, and comparing the results of the two techniques.
RAINFALL PREDICTION USING DATA MINING TECHNIQUES - A SURVEYcsandit
Rainfall is considered as one of the major components of the hydrological process; it takes
significant part in evaluating drought and flooding events. Therefore, it is important to have an
accurate model for rainfall prediction. Recently, several data-driven modeling approaches have
been investigated to perform such forecasting tasks as multilayer perceptron neural networks
(MLP-NN). In fact, the rainfall time series modeling (SARIMA) involvesimportant temporal
dimensions. In order to evaluate the incomes of both models, statistical parameters were used to
make the comparison between the two models. These parameters include the Root Mean Square
Error RMSE, Mean Absolute Error MAE, Coefficient Of Correlation CC and BIAS. Two-Third
of the data was used for training the model and One-third for testing.
International Journal of Engineering and Science Invention (IJESI)inventionjournals
International Journal of Engineering and Science Invention (IJESI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJESI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Engineering Science and Technology, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
A Review on Wireless Sensor Network Protocol for Disaster ManagementEditor IJCATR
Disasters management and emergency services
warning , landslide monitoring, earthquake rescue operation , volcano monitoring, and fire protection. Timely report and res
especially important for reducing the number of sufferers and damages from incidents. In such cases, the communicati
may not function well. This makes it hard to gain information about the incident, and then to respond to the incident rapi
properly. Sensor networks can provide a good solution to these problems through actively monitoring and
emergency incidents to base station. Our objective on this topic aim to study different sensor network protocols to resolve
technical problems in this area, thus identify the energy efficient wireless sensor network archite
disaster management . We also analyze the WSN protocol based on metrics such as Energy efficiency, location awareness, network
lifetime. It furthermore focuses the advantages and performance for disaster management.
Convergence Problems Of Contingency Analysis In Electrical Power Transmission...CSCJournals
Contingency analysis is a tool used by power system engineers for planning and assessing
power system reliability. The conventional analytical method which is mathematical model based,
is not only tedious and time consuming in view of the large number of components in the network
but always left some critical components unassessed due to non-convergence of the power flow
analysis of such, hence the contingency analysis of such system could not be said to be
completed.
In this work, contingency analysis of line components of a standard IEEE-30 Bus and real 330-kV
Nigerian Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) network (28Bus) systems were investigated
using Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF-NN) which is artificial intelligence based.
The contingency analysis was carried out by solving the non-linear algebraic equations of steady
state model for the standard IEEE-30 Bus and TCN-28 Bus power networks using NewtonRaphson
(N-R) power flow method. RBF-NN method was used for the computation of Reactive
and Active performance indices (PIR and PIA ) which were ranked in order to reveal the criticality
of each line outage. Simulation was carried out using MATLAB R2013a version. The nonconverged
lines in both systems were reinforced and re-analysed. The results of contingency
analyses of the reinforced systems show more robust systems with complete line ranking.
The document summarizes a study comparing time series and artificial neural network (ANN) methods for short-term load forecasting of Covenant University, Nigeria. Load data from October 15-16, 2012 was used to develop forecasting models using moving average, exponential smoothing (time series methods) and ANN. The ANN model with inputs of previous load, time of day, day of week and weekday/weekend proved most accurate with a mean absolute deviation of 0.225, mean squared error of 0.095 and mean absolute percent error of 8.25, making it the best forecasting method according to the error measurements.
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This document discusses different methods for flood frequency analysis, including Gumbel's method, artificial neural networks (ANN), and gene expression programming (GEP). Gumbel's method is widely used in India to predict flood peaks. ANN and GEP are artificial intelligence techniques that have been applied to hydraulic engineering problems in recent decades. The document focuses on applying GEP to flood frequency analysis of the Ganga River at Hardwar, India. GEP is implemented to derive a relationship between peak flood discharge and return period. The results of GEP are promising and suggest it is a useful alternative to more conventional flood frequency analysis methods.
Similar to Forecasting solid waste generation in Juba Town, South Sudan using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Autoregressive Moving Averages (ARMA) (20)
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2. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
X2
Xn
w1
w2
wn
y
b
Lomeling and Kenyi 212
Prediction or forecasting of solid waste generation in Juba
Town has become indispensable and crucial, if available
resources are to be effectively deployed in the sustainable
management of SW. Time series offers an important area
of stochastic forecasting in which past observations of a
specific variable are analyzed to develop a model that can
be used to make future projections. Over the past
decades, much effort has been undertaken in the
development and improvement of time series models that
can be applied for forecasting like the Artificial Neural
Networks (ANNs) and the Auto-Regressive Moving
Averages (ARMA) as compared to classical and traditional
methods like linear and multiple regressions or polynomial
functions. During the last two decades, several stochastic
models have been used to predict SW waste like the
support vector machine, (Abbasi et al., 2013); artificial
neural networks (Abdoli et al., 2011); (Antanasijevic et al.,
2013); hybrid procedure (Xu et al., 2013); time series
analysis, (Mwenda et al., 2014); multi-step chaotic model
(Song and He, 2014); principal component analysis and
gamma testing (Noori et al., 2010); grey fuzzy dynamic
modeling (Chen and Chang, 2010); Fourier series (Darko
et al., 2016); simulated annealing based hybrid forecast
(Song et al., 2014). In general, most ANN prediction
models have clearly outlined architecture with specific
number of input variables at the input layer and
corresponding number of expected outputs at the output
layer. Depending on the problem to be modeled, several
input variables may be chosen for a given number of
anticipated outputs. The choice of any one single, all-
purpose model under any prevailing conditions is therefore
unrealistic. Structurally, such a multi-purpose model would
require more complex algorithms capable of handling
several calculations simultaneously for some desired
number of input variables and then come up with optimal
predictions.
The objective of this study was to compare the
effectiveness of machine learning method (Artificial Neural
Networks ANNs) and the stochastic linear model
(Autoregressive Moving Average – ARMA) for medium to
long-term weekly forecasting of solid waste generation in
some households of Juba Town, South Sudan. The
integration of Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) with
both ANNs and ARMA models was primarily used for easy
visualization and interpretation of input signals as well as
frequencies in the time series. Using both models, a good
estimate of the weekly SW per capita was to be made
during the 2012-2020 forecasting period.
Forecasting Models
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
ANNs is basically a computational approach whose
architecture is mostly composed of three layers: an input,
hidden and output layers mimicking the way biological
neurons receive, transfer and output signals. Each neural
unit or perceptron is linked with many others and can either
be enforcing once the summation function has surpassed
some threshold value to be propagated or inhibitory in their
effect once below the summation function value. The
single neuron is illustrated by the McCulloch-Pitts Model
(1943).
(input e.g. SW (b, bias that increases (output or
data) or lowers the net input of forecasted
activation/sigmoid function) value)
Figure 1: A model of a three-layers perceptron.
Mathematically, the output variable, y is the sum of the
individual weighted variables and bias that influences the
activation function S:
(x1w1 + x2w2 + ⋯ xnwn)+b=y= 𝑺 ∑ (xj
n
j=1 wj + b)
Equation (1)
The underlying concept is to arrive at a function that
minimizes the error (E) between the input (actual) and
output (forecasted) variables thereby enhancing the
accuracy in the forecasting or prediction.
Emin(x,b)=𝑓[∑ x;w,b−yn
j=1 ]²
Equation (2)
Usually the sums of each input signal (x1, x2, …xn) and
intensity or weighted values (w1, w2,…wn) are passed on
through a non-linear function known as an activation or
transfer function that usually has a sigmoid shape, that is
bounded, and differentiable as:
𝑺(x) =
1
(1+e−x)
Equation (3)
Many theoretical and experimental works have shown that
a single hidden layer (with one or more several hidden
nodes) is sufficient for ANN to approximate any complex
nonlinear function (Dreiseitl and Ohno-Machado, 2002;
Chattopadhyay and Bandyopadhyay 2007; Matias et al.,
2013; Vishwakarma and Gupta, 2011; Aggarwal and
Kumar 2015). A more plausible argument is that, the low
number of nodes in the hidden layer directly linked to the
input neuron have a low bias (b) and would tend to
increase the input of the activation function. This in turn
would enhance large changes in their weights and learn
very quickly and so incur less errors as manifested by the
high correlation coefficients for both training and test sets.
In this study, a model based on a feedforward neural
network with a single hidden layer was used. Hereby, the
learning process in understanding hidden and strongly
non-linear dependencies in the time series of the observed
X1
S
3. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
J. Environ. Waste Manag. 213
Figure 2a. Run plot sequence of weekly disposed solid waste showing seasonality in the time series
Figure 2b. Effects of alpha term (α) on exponential smoothing or the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA)
and modeled data in the training and test were faster and
the forecasting made easier. However, such forecasts can
only be made for shorter prediction times and not for
extensively longer future times as the error would tend to
increase.
Auto-Regressive Moving Average, ARMA model
The first step in developing the ARMA model was
determining the stationarity of the time series in which case
the mean and variance are time invariable. The
autocorrelation function (ACF) may signify stationarity of
the time series, if it cuts off or decomposes quite rapidly
towards zero. Conversely, if the ACF decomposes very
slowly and gradually towards zero, this would indicate non-
stationarity and would need to be transformed or
differenced to obtain stationarity by stabilizing the variance
of a time series. Differencing helps stabilize the mean of a
time series by removing changes in the level of a time
series, and so eliminating trend and seasonality.
On the other hand, a time series that shows seasonality as
in Figure 2a can be exponentially smoothened by an
exponentially weighted non-parametric value (α) to
“smoothen” the value X_t to a new value X ̂ recursively
(Figure 2b):
X̂ = αXt + (1 − α)Xt−1 Equation (4)
where 0 ≤ α ≤ 1
Our data showed that the best seasonal exponential
smoothing was when α=0,2 with r²=0,26; α=0,5 with
r²=0,08 and α =0,8 with r²=0,04. The value α =0,2 best
approximated the mean value and regression constant of
the time series and therefore gave a better trend analysis.
Owing to its simplicity, the exponential smoothing only “de-
seasonalizes” a time series thereby assuming the nature
of a linear regression equation between two variables.
However, it´s predictive ability is inadequate in more
complex stochastic and non-linear processes with more
y = 0,0011x + 0,3077
r² = 0,04
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 8 15 22 29 36 43
KgofSWperhousehold
Time.: Weeks
Obs. a=0,2 a=0,5 a=0,8
y = 0,0011x + 0,3077
r² = 0,04
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50
WeeklySW/household
Time. Weeks
4. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
Lomeling and Kenyi 214
than 3 or more input variables. Although some authors
(Mwenda et al., 2014; Petridis et al., 2016); Rimaityte et
al., 2011; Karpušenkaitė et al., 2016) have mentioned the
theory behind single exponential smoothing, however, not
much in terms of its practical applicability have yet been
reported.
The ARMA (p,q) model used herein is made up of an
Autoregressive AR(p) and Moving Average MA(q)
components. This means that, the forecast value of (X) at
time (t) in a time series is a function of both linear
combination of past X-innovations and a moving average
of series ( 𝜀t), known as white noise process characterized
by zero mean ( 𝜇 ) and variance (𝜎).
Xt = c + 𝜀t + ∑ αiXt−1 + ∑ βi
𝑞
i=1
𝑝
i=1 𝜀t−i
Equation (5)
With the values p and q identified from the ACF and PACF,
the model parameters (αi) and (βi) can then be estimated.
Once we had confirmed the stationarity of the time series,
the autocorrelation (ACF) and partial autocorrelation
functions (PACF) were used to determine the correlation
and model structure of the data.
MATERIALS AND METHOD
This study focused on solid waste generated by single
persons in 14 households in Kator residential area of Kator
Payam, Juba County of Central Equatoria State in South
Sudan. Collected waste was placed into a container whose
tare weight was initially determined using the hanging
scale. The net weight of the solid waste was then
determined. The data were collected weekly over a period
of 31 weeks as from June 2010 till January 2011. Each
household had on average 6 persons with monthly income
of about 650 SDG (Sudanese Guinee equivalent to
145$/month as of June 2010). About 40-60% of the
collected waste was made up of predominantly degradable
organic component consisting mainly of food residues and
partly cartons and newspapers. The rest was made up of
PET plastic water bottles. The waste was collected at the
end of each week, weighed and the daily amounts per
capita generated (kg/capita/week) was then calculated
This work attempted to predict the weekly waste generated
in the remaining 21 weeks till July 2011 based on the
previous data. For the training set, data from the first 20
weeks were used representing 90% of the actual data. The
rest 10 weeks representing 10% of the actual data were
then used as test set.
Data description and analysis
From the weekly solid waste data reports, the Excel-based
Alyuda Forecaster XL software was used to make future
projections in the time series. Its algorithm allows an easy
data preprocessing of the neural networks. Additionally,
the Continuous Wavelet Transfer (CWT) using the PAST3
software was used to illustrate through the spectral power
the peaks or spikes of weekly solid waste disposal in the
time series.
Model identification
The effect of model choice on both correlation functions is
shown in Figure 3 (a) and (b). The spikes presented in the
ACF and PACF showed a correlation in the data every 2
lag units. The model identification revealed that with the
cut-off at lag 1, the autoregressive of order p and the
moving average of order q was also 1 as the ACF was got
below zero after first lag. For illustrative purposes, the
ARMA (1,2) as opposed to ARMA (1,1) was also used to
compare the parameter values and how these influenced
the model choice. The ARMA (1,2) in Figure 4 (a) and (b)
as compared to ARMA (1,1) showed dissimilar AC and
PAC functions at lag 1 and was outside the 95%
confidence limits. The ARMA (1,1) was then chosen and
there was therefore no need for any differencing.
Training Set: From this, 32 data entries of the weekly solid
waste disposed per household were trained through a
process of finding values for the weights (w) and biases (b)
whereby the error between the measured and predicted
values was minimized. The back-propagation algorithm
was used here. The accuracy of the resulting training
process was then applied for making projections in neural
network model. Figure 5 shows the accuracy of the
training set between the observed and forecasted values
with a high r²=0.99.
Testing Set: This data set consisted of entries of the last
weekly solid waste disposed per household and was
used to test whether, or not the accuracy derived from
the training process would provide the most appropriate
solution and hence confirm the predictive power of the
network model. Similarly, the test set showed high
correlation coefficient of r²=0.99 as shown in the training
set (Table 2).
Table 2: Comparison of the learning ability (MSE) between the
training and test set of a ANN.
Training set Test set
Nr. of rows 32 12
Nr. of Good Forecast 30(94%) 12(100%)
Average MSE 8,91E-05 1,25E-05
r² 0,99 0,99
Validation Set: Generally, this data set is used to minimize
overfitting in the model. As in our case, given the high
correlation coefficients of both the training and test sets
and the high predictive power of the neural network model,
there was therefore no need for a validation set. Figure 6
shows simulation runs of both the training and test sets
and confirmed the accuracy of the ANN in predicting future
solid waste data.
5. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
J. Environ. Waste Manag. 215
Figure 3. Autocorrelation plot of weekly per capita solid waste disposed in Juba (red dotted lines are upper and lower 95% confidence
limits). ACF plot of residuals of ARMA (1,1) with α1 = -0,999 and β1 = -0,800 (a) and PACF plot of residuals of ARMA (1,1) with α1 = -
0,999 and β1 = -0,800 (b).
Figure 4: ACF and PACF plot of residuals of ARMA (1,2) with AR (1) at α1 = -0,999 and AM (2) at β1 = -0,526 and β2 = -0,800
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
AutocorrelationFunction,ACF
Lag (a)
ACF residuals ARMA (1,1)
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
PartialAutocorrelation
Function,PACF
Lag (b)
PACF residuals ARMA (1,1)
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
AutocorrelationFunction,
ACF
Lag (a)
acf residuals of ARMA (1,2)
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
AutocorrelationFunction,
ACF
Lag (b)
pacf residuals of ARMA (1,2)
6. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
Lomeling and Kenyi 216
Figure 5. Scatter plot of a ANN for both training and test set of a weekly per capita solid waste in Juba Town
Figure 6. Simulation of the training and test data sets
Figure 7. Error distribution of training and test sets
Figure 7 shows the error distribution of both the training
and test sets. Whereas the error margin by the training set
varied between -0,03 and 0,03, for the test set, this was
between -0,006 and 0,006. The error magnitude in the
training set was ten-fold more than that in the test set.
Presumably, the larger the data set, the larger the variance
between the observed and forecasted and hence the
larger is the error margin and vice versa.
RESULTS
ANN Model
Our simulation was based on a simple network
architecture that returned the smallest MSE and therefore
the best prediction accuracy. The MSE and (r²) recorded
for both the training and test sets have already been
y = 0,9798x + 0,0069
r² = 0,99
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
Forecasted
Actual
Training set
y = 0,9855x + 0,0069
r² = 0,99
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.49
0.51
0.43 0.48 0.53
Forecasted
Actual
Test set
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37
Forescasted
Actual
Rows
Actual Forecasted
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
1 4 7 10 13
Forecasted
Actual
Rows
Actual Forecasted
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
1 7 13 19 25 31 37
Error
Rows
Error by training set n=40
-0.006
-0.004
-0.002
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Error
Rows
Error by test set n=12
7. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
J. Environ. Waste Manag. 217
Table 3. Parameters of ARMA (1,1) and (1,2) models of weekly SW generated in Juba Town, South Sudan
Parameters Standard Error, SE t-statistics p-Value AIC LLF
ARMA
(1,1)
AR (1)
AM (1)
-0,999 (α1)
-0,888 (β1)
0,073 7,643 7,66E-10 -
96,56
50,28
ARMA
(1,2)
AR (1)
AM (1)
AM (2)
-0,999 (α1)
-0,526 (β1)
-0,278 (β2)
0,000 12,738 1,08E-16 -
96,34
51,17
ARMA
(1,3)
AR (1)
AM (1)
AM (2)
AM (3)
-0,999 (α 1)
-0,632 (β1)
-0,420 (β2)
0,289 (β3)
0,000 13,464 3,304E-17 -
99,05
53,53
presented in Table 2, from where we observed 1-1-1 (1
input layer, 1 hidden layer, and 1 output layer) gives an
accurate prediction of the weekly solid waste output.
Applying the rule-of-thumb method for estimating the
number of neurons in the hidden layer reported by
Karsoliya (2012), we can assume that the number of
neurons in the hidden layer is approximately 1. (or 70-
90%) of the input layer. Noticeably, the number of hidden
neurons is equal to the number of input nodes whereby the
larger number of neurons would ostensibly lead to
“overfitting” whereas with a relatively smaller number of
neurons would lead to “underfitting”. The good fit (r²) for
both training and test sets shows that the ANN modeled
the observed data quite accurately. There is generally no
“golden rule” for the number of hidden layers that is
applicable for all non-linear time series. Whereas during
the training process other problems are best predicted with
two hidden layers (Srinivasan et al., 1994; Zhang, 1994;
Baron, 1994). Other studies (Wanas, et al., 1998) showed
that the best performance of a neural network occurred
when the number of hidden neurons was equal to log (N),
where N is the number of training samples. Another study
conducted by Mishra and Desai (2006) showed that the
optimal number of hidden neurons is (2n+1), where n is the
number of input neurons.
ARMA Model
Although model identification as per Box-Jenkins
methodology clearly showed an ARMA (1,1)
autoregressive (p) and moving average (q), we
experimented with different q values to see to what extent
this influenced not only model estimation but also the
diagnostic checking and consequently the forecast. Three
different model MA values were varied while the AR was
kept constant. i.e. ARMA (1,1); (1,2) and (1,3) respectively.
The best model parameters were selected based on the
model that gave the least Akaike Information Criterion
(AIC) value and highest likelihood estimation here denoted
as Logarithmic Likelihood Function (LLF) Table 3.
Judging by the values of AIC and LLF, it is evident that
experimented values at ARMA (1,2) and (1,3) are close to
the actual ARMA (1,1) values and suggested the
adequacy of the ARMA (1,1) model.
The scatter plot in Figure 8 shows a positive trend with
several points around the trend line. The relatively low (r²)
values suggested that there was neither an under- or
overestimation for both ANN and ARMA models with most
points between the 0,3-0,4 kg/week for both the observed
and ANN-ARMA models. Whereas the ANN model had a
r²-value of 0,238 this was 0,274 for ARMA model, these r²-
values for both models were not significantly different from
each other. The comparatively lower r²-value of the ANN
would suggest the inability of a linear function in describing
an entirely non-linear time series data.
Performance evaluation
The performance of either of the models was determined
by measuring the difference between the observed and
predicted values in the time series. Best estimates were
those error values that were closer to zero, indicating less
differences between the measured and observed values.
Three accuracy measures were used as follows:
(1) Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE):
MAPE
=
1
𝑛
∑ |
Pobs − Ppred
Pobs
| 100
𝑛
𝑡=1
Equation (6)
(2) Root Mean Square Error (RMSE):
8. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
Lomeling and Kenyi 218
Figure 8. Comparing the ARMA (p, q) and ANN for the observed and forecasted weekly SW per capita
RMSE = √
1
n
(Pobs − Ppred)² Equation (7)
Weekly SW generation for the first 32 weeks which
included both the training and test sets were later
combined with the lead time 20 weeks and the errors
between observed and predicted assessed as in Table 3.
Based on the MAPE, RMSE performance comparison
between both models, there was however no significant
difference between both models. The slightly higher MAPE
value for the ANN model could be due to inherent
drawback of the MAPE in overestimating error value
especially when the difference between observed and
predicted values is zero. (Pobs. = 0).
Table 4. Comparison of the model performances in terms of MAPE and
RMSE of both ANNS and ARMA models.
ANN ARMA
MAPE (%) 10,60 6,98
RMSE 0,080 0,102
Ideally, the ARMA model would have shown poor
performances in both MAPE and RMSE due to its inability
to model non-linear variables as the ANN model. In
complex and non-linear data in the time series, the ARMA
model would inevitably lose predictive accuracy as it is
unable to adequately capture the errors between the
observed and forecasted values in the time series and so
the prediction errors would increase (see Figure HH).
Conversely, the ANN model is capable of identifying
nonlinearity in the time series by having an additional
computation or hidden layer that allows for better curve-
fitting with minimal errors between the forecasted and
observed data.
Diagnostic checking
Based on the autocorrelation plot, the Ljung-Box (1978)
test attempts to establish the overall data randomness
within a time series at some chosen or predetermined lags.
Basically, the null hypothesis (H0) assumes that the data
are random or independently distributed whereas this is
the contrary for the alternative hypothesis (Ha) that
assumes the non-randomness nature of the data. We then
performed the Ljung-Box statistic test as:
Q (LB)= ∑
𝑝̂ 𝑘
2
𝑛−𝑘
𝑁 𝐾
𝑘=1
Equation (8)
Where n=sample size, 𝑝̂ 𝑘
2
=sample correlation at lag k,
𝑁 𝐾=number of lags being tested. Choosing the 𝑝̂ 𝑘
2
at lag 7
and testing at the p=0,05 confidence level, the Q(LB) value
at 0,645 was less than the (chi-square) at 2.013 thereby
reaffirming the H0 and adequacy of the ARMA (1,1) model.
As aforementioned the Q(LB) for randomness is reinforced
by the autocorrelation functions as in Figures 3 and 4
Hereby, all the autocorrelation at the subsequent lags fall
within the 95% confidence limits, other than that at lag 0.
Model verification
Model verification dealt with ascertaining whether the
residuals of the ARMA model as expressed by the ACF
and PACF had any discernible and systematic patterns
y = 0,3139x + 0,2314
r² = 0,274
y = 0,3355x + 0,2367
r² = 0,238
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
ARMA
ANN
Actual
ARMA Forecast ANN Forecast
9. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
J. Environ. Waste Manag. 219
Figure 9. Forecasting SW using the ANN and ARMA (1, 1) models
Figure 10. Weekly SW forecast of households in Juba Town using the ARMA (1,1) model
with respect to the lags. Our study showed that, none of
these correlations was significantly different from zero at
the 95% confidence limit indicating the goodness of fit and
appropriateness of the ARMA model.
Forecasting
The two forecasting models ARMA and ANNs presented
in this paper (Figures 9 and 10) allowed us to predict the
weekly generated SW with mean value of about 0.35
kg/household and upper and lower limits of about 0.63 and
0.16 kg/household respectively. Towards the 51st week,
the generated SW was well below the 0.4 kg level and
would under constant economic and political conditions
remain below the 0.5 kg level till 2020. This forecasting is
useful in mobilizing and optimizing available financial
resources and personnel needed for effective SW
management.
2.2 Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT)
One of the main goals of a CWT is to enable the easy
visualization and interpretation of input signals and
frequencies as a function of time. The CWT decomposes
a continuous time function of a time series into the
components called wavelets each with a different localized
frequency. Although CWT are usually applied for non-
stationary signals, we tried to apply both the Morlet wavelet
transform and the Derivative of Gaussian (DOG) to
account for the high instantaneous amplitude or signal
outbursts in the time series as well as in the recognition of
inherent frequency patterns. The Morlet wavelet transform
(Goupillaud, et al., 1984) is given as:
y = 0,0011x + 0,3077
r² = 0,04
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50
ANN
ARMA(1,1)
Time. Weeks
Obs. ARMA (1, 1) ANN
y = 0,0011x + 0,3033
r² = 0,06
-
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Forecast
Actual
Time: Weeks
SW forecast using ARMA (1, 1) model
Actual Forecast
10. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
Lomeling and Kenyi 220
𝜗 𝑤0
(𝑡) = 𝐾𝑒 𝑖𝑤0 𝑡
𝑒
−𝑡2
2 Equation (9)
Where 𝑤0 is the non-dimensional frequency and the
vertical scale corresponds to the length of wavelet, i.e., the
number of time steps used for the CWT. The cone of
influence (COI) is the region where the wavelet power
spectra are limited due to the influence of the end points
of finite length signals also known as the e-folding time.
Here, the signal discontinuity drops by a factor of (e-2) and
ensures that edge effects are negligible beyond this point.
The DOG with m=derivative was set at 6 and expressed
as:
DOG =
(−1) 𝑚+1
√(𝑚+
1
2
)
𝑑 𝑚
𝑑 𝑚 (𝑒
−2
2 ) Equation (10)
Values of m=2 or 4 using DOG basis functions did not
describe the spectral decomposition in the time series
adequately. The choice of the wavelet used for time-
frequency decomposition in a time series is critical. The
use of the Morlet wavelet for example, showed that the
frequency resolution was “lumped” together and was
localized within a 95% confidence limit. On the contrary,
using Derivative of Gaussian (DOG) wavelet with m=6,
(Figure 11 a and b), the result was good time localization
with strong frequencies. The Morlet and Derivative of
Gaussian (DOG) wavelets are plotted below.
The choice for the type of wavelets in interpreting the
frequency and intensity of data entries (xn) in a time series
are shown in Figures 11 and 12. We used the forecasted
data from both models as input data to generate the
respective wavelets. For both models, (Figure 11a and b),
the dominant power spectrum was characterized by
smaller spikes between log scale 1.2 and 3.2 from week15
to 30. This time coincided with the highest weekly waste
generation around Christmas season where expectedly,
more households had much disposable incomes enabling
an increased consumption and so increased solid waste
generation. However, the ARMA as opposed to the ANNs
model showed certain areas outside the COI, clearly an
indication of model overestimation by the former. In both
cases, using the Morlet basis function (Figure 11c and d)
showed poor spectral decomposition as a function of time
than the DOG m=6.
As aforementioned with the Ljung-Box randomness test in
a time series with the ARMA model, the resulting power
spectrum using the CWT can as well exhibit coherent and
significant structures. A test of significance can be used to
distinguish between significant and random structures
(Mohr, 2003) in which case values in a power spectrum
may be considered as statistically significant at the 95%
level and therefore not random.
For the null hypothesis (H0), we assumed that the time
series had a mean power spectrum. Spikes or peaks in the
wavelet power spectrum above this background spectrum
were shown as black contoured spectrum “significant at
the 5% level” or equivalent to “the 95% confidence level”.
Therefore, if the peak in the power spectrum of the Morlet
and DOG wavelets are significantly larger than the
background spectrum, it is then assumed to be a true
feature. There was better interpretation of the spectral
decomposition for the observed data as well as for both
models when the DOG m=6 as opposed to Morlet.basis
function was applied.
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
In this study on time series models, we analyzed and
compared the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and the
Autoregressive Moving Averages (ARMA) in forecasting
the weekly amounts of solid waste generated by single
persons in fourteen households of Kator residential area of
Juba town. For the ANNs model, the input training data
used were the average weekly amounts of solid waste
collected from during the month of June 2011. The test
data of July 2011 were then used to validate the ANNs
model. The result showed that ARMA (1,1) slightly
outperformed the ANNs model in terms of MAPE but not
in terms of the RMSE. However, considering both
performance indicators, there was no significant
differences between both models and so either model
could be used to forecast the amount of the solid waste
generation for the next weeks and years. Using both
models is, however, for comparative reasons imperative in
order qualify and quantify the extent of deviation of the
estimated values from the observed mean. The projected
values showed that by 2020, the weekly generation
according to both models will have reached about 0.596
kg/capita with a 95% confidence interval lying between
0.2-0.6 kg/capita. Such projections may be used by Juba
municipal or town council in the proper planning and
management of solid waste.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
My special gratitude goes to Mr. Santino Wani Kenyi for
data collection as part of his BSc dissertation. We the
authors also wish to extend our thanks to the households
in Kator Payam for allowing the conduction of the
interviews.
11. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
J. Environ. Waste Manag. 221
(a) (b)
(c) (d)
Figure 11. (a) Weekly solid waste output signals for the ARMA model when using the DOG m=6 (b) for the ANNs models. Whereas when using the
Morlet basis function for ARMA (d) for ANNs model. Wavelet power spectrum showing cone of influence (COI) at the 95% confidence interval with areas
of intense peaks and signals in red contoured in (black) while those with poor signals in (blue).
12. Forecasting weekly SW generation using ANNs and ARMA models in Juba Town, South Sudan
Lomeling and Kenyi 222
(a) (b)
Figure 12. (a) Weekly solid waste output signals using the Morlet basis function for the observed data and (b) using the DOG m=6 basis function.
Wavelet power spectrum showing cone of influence (COI) at the 95% confidence interval with areas of intense peaks and signals in red contoured in
(black) while those with poor signals in (blue).
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