The document discusses forecasting exchange rates. It describes why firms forecast exchange rates, the common techniques used including technical, fundamental, market-based and mixed forecasting, and how forecasting performance can be evaluated. Evaluation involves measuring accuracy over time, testing for bias, comparing forecasts graphically or statistically, and assessing volatility and how forecasts impact firm value.
here we are trying to explain how firms can benefit from forecasting exchange rate, to describe common technique that used to forecast, how to evaluate forecasting performance
explain about techniques for hedging transaction exposure, how to used hedge future, option, money market for payable and receivable, comparing techniques for hedging vs not-hedging
here we are trying to explain how firms can benefit from forecasting exchange rate, to describe common technique that used to forecast, how to evaluate forecasting performance
explain about techniques for hedging transaction exposure, how to used hedge future, option, money market for payable and receivable, comparing techniques for hedging vs not-hedging
describing the exchange rate systems, explaining how government uses direct and indirect intervention to influence exchange rates, and how government intervention in the forex markets.
8 key factors that affect foreign exchange ratesannadesoza123
The exchange rate is defined as "the rate at which one country's currency may be converted into another." It may fluctuate daily with the changing market forces of supply and demand of currencies from one country to another.
Introduction to Exchange Rate Mechanism: Spot- Forward Rate, Exchange Arithmetic. -- Deriving the Actual Exchange Rate: Forwards, Swaps, Futures and Options. Guarantees in Trade: Performance, Bid Bond etc.
Factor Affecting exchange rate and Theories of exchange rate Jatin Goyal
It explains the following topics
Factor Affecting the exchange rate
CURRENCY DEPRECIATION VS.CURRENCY APPRECIATION
Foreign exchange
Theories of exchange rate
describing the exchange rate systems, explaining how government uses direct and indirect intervention to influence exchange rates, and how government intervention in the forex markets.
8 key factors that affect foreign exchange ratesannadesoza123
The exchange rate is defined as "the rate at which one country's currency may be converted into another." It may fluctuate daily with the changing market forces of supply and demand of currencies from one country to another.
Introduction to Exchange Rate Mechanism: Spot- Forward Rate, Exchange Arithmetic. -- Deriving the Actual Exchange Rate: Forwards, Swaps, Futures and Options. Guarantees in Trade: Performance, Bid Bond etc.
Factor Affecting exchange rate and Theories of exchange rate Jatin Goyal
It explains the following topics
Factor Affecting the exchange rate
CURRENCY DEPRECIATION VS.CURRENCY APPRECIATION
Foreign exchange
Theories of exchange rate
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In this Accenture Finance & Risk presentation we discuss an approach banks can use to develop, manage, and monitor a robust and effective Internal Model Method program. Learn more about the Accenture Finance & Risk Practice: bit.ly/2j2JD6X
The specific
objectives of this
chapter is to:
■ explain how firms
can benefit from
forecasting
exchange rates,
■ describe the
common techniques
used for forecasting,
■ explain how
forecasting
performance can be
evaluated, and
■ explain how
interval forecasts
can be applied.
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A Memorandum of Association (MOA) is a legal document that outlines the fundamental principles and objectives upon which a company operates. It serves as the company's charter or constitution and defines the scope of its activities. Here's a detailed note on the MOA:
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Capital Clause: This clause specifies the authorized capital of the company, i.e., the maximum amount of share capital the company is authorized to issue. It also mentions the division of this capital into shares and their respective nominal value.
Association Clause: It simply states that the subscribers wish to form a company and agree to become members of it, in accordance with the terms of the MOA.
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Legal Requirement: The MOA is a legal requirement for the formation of a company. It must be filed with the Registrar of Companies during the incorporation process.
Constitutional Document: It serves as the company's constitutional document, defining its scope, powers, and limitations.
Protection of Members: It protects the interests of the company's members by clearly defining the objectives and limiting their liability.
External Communication: It provides clarity to external parties, such as investors, creditors, and regulatory authorities, regarding the company's objectives and powers.
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Binding Authority: The company and its members are bound by the provisions of the MOA. Any action taken beyond its scope may be considered ultra vires (beyond the powers) of the company and therefore void.
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1. Part III
Exchange Rate Risk Management
Information on existing
and anticipated
economic conditions of
various countries and
on historical exchange
rate movements
Information on existing
and anticipated
cash flows in
each currency
at each subsidiary
Measuring
exposure to
exchange rate
fluctuations
Forecasting
exchange
rates
Managing
exposure to
exchange rate
fluctuations
3. A9 - 3
Chapter Objectives
• To explain how firms can benefit
from forecasting exchange rates;
• To describe the common techniques used
for forecasting; and
• To explain how forecasting performance
can be evaluated.
4. A9 - 4
• MNCs need exchange rate forecasts for
their:
¤ hedging decisions,
¤ short-term financing decisions,
¤ short-term investment decisions,
¤ capital budgeting decisions,
¤ long-term financing decisions, and
¤ earnings assessment.
Why Firms Forecast
Exchange Rates
5. A9 - 5
Forecasting Techniques
• The numerous methods available for
forecasting exchange rates can be
categorized into four general groups:
technical,
fundamental,
market-based,and
mixed.
6. A9 - 6
• Technical forecasting involves the use of
historical data to predict future values. It
includes statistical analysis and time
series models.
• Speculators may find the models useful
for predicting day-to-day movements.
• However, since they typically focus on the
near future and rarely provide point/range
estimates, they are of limited use to MNCs.
Technical Forecasting
7. A9 - 7
• Fundamental forecasting is based on the
fundamental relationships between
economic variables and exchange rates.
• A forecast may arise simply from a
subjective assessment of the factors that
affect exchange rates.
• A forecast may be based on quantitative
measurements (with the aid of regression
models and sensitivity analysis) too.
Fundamental Forecasting
8. A9 - 8
• Known relationships like the PPP can be
used for the regression models. However,
problems may arise. In the case of PPP:
¤ the timing of the impact of inflation on trade
behavior is not known for sure,
¤ prices may be measured inaccurately,
¤ trade barriers may disrupt the trade
patterns that should emerge, and
¤ other influential factors may exist.
Fundamental Forecasting
9. A9 - 9
• In general, fundamental forecasting is
limited by :
¤ the uncertain timing of the impact of the
factors,
¤ the need for forecasts for factors with
instantaneous impact,
¤ the possibility that other relevant factors
may be omitted from the model, and
¤ changes in the sensitivity of currency
movements to each factor over time.
Fundamental Forecasting
10. A9 - 10
• Market-based forecasting involves
developing forecasts from market
indicators.
• Usually, either the spot rate or the forward
rate is used, since speculation should
push the rates to the level that reflect the
market expectation of the future exchange
rate.
Market-Based Forecasting
11. A9 - 11
• Since forward contracts have low trading
volumes and are not widely quoted, the
interest rates on risk-free instruments can
be used to determine what the forward
rates should be according to IRP for long-
term forecasting.
Market-Based Forecasting
12. A9 - 12
Mixed Forecasting
• Mixed forecasting refers to the use of a
combination of forecasting techniques.
• The actual forecast is a weighted average
of the various forecasts developed.
13. A9 - 13
Forecasting Services
• The corporate need to forecast currency
values has prompted some consulting
firms and investment banks to offer
forecasting services.
• Advice on hedging and international cash
management, and assessment of the
firm’s exposure to exchange rate risk, may
be provided too.
14. A9 - 14
• One way to determine whether a
forecasting service is valuable is to
compare the accuracy of its forecasts with
the accuracy of publicly available and free
forecasts.
Forecasting Services
15. A9 - 15
Evaluation of Forecast Performance
• An MNC that forecasts exchange rates
should monitor its performance over time
to determine whether its forecasting
procedure is satisfactory.
• The MNC may also want to compare the
various forecasting methods.
16. A9 - 16
Evaluation of Forecast Performance
• One measure of forecast performance is
the absolute forecast error as a
percentage of the realized value:
| forecasted value – realized value |
realized value
• Over time, MNCs are likely to have more
confidence in their forecasts when they
know the mean error for their past
forecasts.
17. A9 - 17
Evaluation of Forecast Performance
• The ability to forecast currency values
may vary with the currency of concern.
• In particular, the value of a less volatile
currency is likely to be forecasted more
accurately.
18. A9 - 18
Forecast Bias
• If the forecast errors are consistently
positive or negative over time, then there
is a bias in the forecasting procedure.
19. A9 - 19
Forecast Bias
• The following regression model can be
used to test for forecast bias:
realized = a0 + a1 × forecast + µ
• If a predictor is found to be biased, the
estimated a0 and a1 values can be used to
correct the systematic error.
20. A9 - 20
Graphic Evaluation
of Forecast Performance
• If the points appear to be scattered evenly
on both sides of the perfect forecast line,
then the forecasts are said to be unbiased.
• Note that a more thorough assessment
can be conducted by separating the entire
period into subperiods.
21. A9 - 21
Comparison of
Forecasting Techniques
• The different forecasting techniques can
be evaluated
¤ graphically - by comparing the distances
from the perfect forecast line, or
¤ statistically - by computing the mean of the
absolute forecast errors, and then using a
t-test or a nonparametric test to determine
whether there is a significant difference in
the accuracy of the forecasting techniques.
22. A9 - 22
Forecasting Under Market Efficiency
• If the foreign exchange market is weak-
form efficient, then the current exchange
rates already reflect historical information.
So, technical analysis would not be useful.
• If the market is semistrong-form efficient,
then all the relevant public information is
already reflected in the current exchange
rates.
23. A9 - 23
• If the market is strong-form efficient, then
all the relevant public and private
information is already reflected in the
current exchange rates.
• Foreign exchange markets are generally
found to be at least semistrong-form
efficient.
Forecasting Under Market Efficiency
24. A9 - 24
• Nevertheless, MNCs may still find
forecasting worthwhile, since their goal is
not to earn speculative profits but to use
exchange rate forecasts to implement
policies.
• In particular, MNCs may need to determine
the range of possible exchange rates in
order to assess the degree to which their
operating performance could be affected.
Forecasting Under Market Efficiency
25. A9 - 25
Exchange Rate Volatility
• MNCs also forecast exchange rate
volatility. This enables them to specify a
range (confidence interval) and develop
best-case and worst-case scenarios along
with their point estimate forecasts.
• Popular methods for forecasting volatility
include:
the use of recent exchange rate volatility,
26. A9 - 26
Exchange Rate Volatility
the use of a historical time series of
volatilities (there may be a pattern in how
the exchange rate volatility changes over
time), and
the derivation of the exchange rate’s
implied standard deviation from the
currency option pricing model.
27. A9 - 27
Application of Exchange Rate Forecasting
to the Asian Crisis
• Before the crisis, the spot rate served as a
reasonable predictor, because the central
banks were maintaining a somewhat
stable value for their respective
currencies.
• But even after the crisis began, it is
unlikely that the degree of depreciation
could have been accurately predicted by
the usual models.
28. A9 - 28
Application of Exchange Rate Forecasting
to the Asian Crisis
• The large amount of foreign investment
and the fear of a massive selloff of the
currencies played key roles in the sharp
decline of the Asian currency values.
• However, these two factors cannot be
easily incorporated into a fundamental
forecasting model in a manner that will
precisely identify the timing and
magnitude of currency depreciation.
29. A9 - 29
Impact of Forecasted Exchange Rates
on an MNC’s Value
( ) ( )[ ]
( )∑
∑
+
×
=
n
t
t
m
j
tjtj
k1=
1
,,
1
ERECFE
=Value
E (CFj,t ) = expected cash flows in
currency j to be received by the U.S. parent at the
end of period t
E (ERj,t ) = expected exchange rate at
which currency j can be converted to dollars at
Technical Forecasting
Fundamental Forecasting
Market-based Forecasting
Mixed Forecasting
31. A9 - 31
Chapter Review
• Evaluation of Forecast Performance
¤ Forecast Accuracy Over Time
¤ Forecast Accuracy Among Currencies
¤ Search for Forecast Bias
¤ Statistical Test of Forecast Bias
¤ Graphic Evaluation of Forecast
Performance
¤ Comparison of Forecasting Techniques
32. A9 - 32
Chapter Review
• Forecasting Under Market Efficiency
• Exchange Rate Volatility
• Application of Exchange Rate Forecasting
to the Asian Crisis
• How Exchange Rate Forecasting Affects
an MNC’s Value