1) Forecasting involves predicting future conditions and is needed continually for planning and decision making. There are different time horizons for forecasts including short, medium, and long term.
2) Quantitative forecasting methods use past data patterns or external influences to project future outcomes, while qualitative methods rely on subjective expert judgment when there is little past data.
3) Qualitative judgmental forecasting includes personal insights, panel consensus, market surveys, historical analogy, and the Delphi method. The appropriate method depends on factors like cost, accuracy needs, and data availability.
How to Forecast with Limited Historical DataDataScience
Product Managers and Demand Planners often find themselves in the position of forecasting demand of new products with unavailable historical information. This presentation will discusses how demand of analogous products can be used to arrive at more accurate forecasts using “Forecasting By Historical Analogy.”
Interventions required to meet business objectives - from Forecasting Methods,
Forecast Accuracy / Error Reduction,
Integrate – Sales Forecast / Production to undertaking a CPFR
How to Forecast with Limited Historical DataDataScience
Product Managers and Demand Planners often find themselves in the position of forecasting demand of new products with unavailable historical information. This presentation will discusses how demand of analogous products can be used to arrive at more accurate forecasts using “Forecasting By Historical Analogy.”
Interventions required to meet business objectives - from Forecasting Methods,
Forecast Accuracy / Error Reduction,
Integrate – Sales Forecast / Production to undertaking a CPFR
Using the theme of Interdependence, students can discover an interactive way of getting familiar with the ideas and vocabulary from Annie Leonard's "The Story of Stuff".
difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under consideration has passed all the hurdles so far lacking enough financial and human resources the firm needs a good concept selection procedure oherwise management must guess. approve too many projects difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under consideration has passed all the hurdles so far lacking enough financial and human resources the firm needs a good concept selection procedure oherwise management must guess. approve too many projects difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under consideration has passed all the hurdles so far lacking enough financial and human resources the firm needs a good concept selection procedure oherwise management must guess. approve too many projects difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under consideration has passed all the hurdles so far lacking enough financial and human resources the firm needs a good concept selection procedure oherwise management must guess. approve too many projects difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under consideration has passed all the hurdles so far lacking enough financial and human resources the firm needs a good concept selection procedure oherwise management must guess. approve too many projects difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under consideration has passed all the hurdles so far lacking enough financial and human resources the firm needs a good concept selection procedure oherwise management must guess. approve too many projects difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under consideration has passed all the hurdles so far lacking enough financial and human resources the firm needs a good concept selection procedure oherwise management must guess. approve too many projects difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under consideration has passed all the hurdles so far lacking enough financial and human resources the firm needs a good concept selection procedure oherwise management must guess. approve too many projects difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under consideration has passed all the hurdles so far lacking enough financial and human resources the firm needs a good concept selection procedure oherwise management must guess. approve too many projects difficulties in concept selection is one of the biggets challenges of product management. what if every project under considerati
Predictive Pre-Testing: A New Model for Ad Pre-Testing Based on Prediction Ma...Iqbal Mohammed
Abstract: In the advertising industry, there's widespread agreement that ad pre-testing (or copy testing) is a creativity killer. Current research methodologies using focus groups to test innovative ideas and products have poor predictive ability, often throwing up lazy groupthink, post-rationalisations and risk-averse generalisations. This paper argues for a revamped model of ad pre-testing that harnesses collective intelligence to improve forecasts of real world response by a significant factor. Drawing insights from a range of business implementations of 'wisdom of crowds', the paper presents prediction markets as a tool to effectively aggregate the responses of a research group that is characterised by diversity of opinion, independent thinking and decentralisation. The updated model takes care to align the interests of research respondents with those commissioning it by incorporating gamification techniques to draw out deeply-held private information about their cohorts and the world they inhabit. The paper also suggests additional areas of exploration and improvement while implementing the concept into research practice.
What is Research ?
Objectives of Research
Qualities of a Good Research Worker
TYPES OF RESEARCH
APPLICATION OF RESEARCH
RESEARCH PROCESS
MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEM
LIMITATIONS OF RESEARCH
Many, if not all portfolio managers spend a great deal of time worrying about the quality of their economic input data. These concerns cover the gamut from systemic over- or under-estimation, to project or region-specific bias, to simple sloppy and inconsistent data gathering. Many postpone initiating advanced decision-making techniques “until the data are in better shape”. However, investment decision data quality rarely improves substantially until that data starts being used consistently, systematically, and seriously. How then are we initiate use of advanced decision making techniques if we don’t trust the data? Business decisions are made every day, using the data that is available at the time. If we think of Portfolio Management and Optimization as techniques to improve the quality of our decisions, instead of as ways to find “the right answer”, we can begin to use these techniques to improve those decisions in spite of reservations we may have about the quality of data currently at hand. Once a system is in place and functioning, data quality improvement measures can start to take hold with sufficient feedback to guide the process.
A Pyramid ofDecision ApproachesPaul J.H. Schoemaker J. E.docxransayo
A Pyramid of
Decision Approaches
Paul J.H. Schoemaker J. Edward Russo
Nothing is more difficult, and therefore more precious, than to be able to decide.
—Napoleon Bonaparte {MoKims, 1804)
M
ost managers still make decisions based on intuition, despite
the risks. It's true that computers have improved information
gathering and display and that some routine decisions, such as
credit applications and inventory ordering, can be automated. But most
managerial decisions are still disturbingly immune to technological and
conceptual advances.
Managers know that decision making is more critical than ever; with
global competition, managers are competing against the best of the best.
Recent decision research has offered insights into improving managerial
decisions that were not available even a decade ago. But how can you incor-
porate some of those insights into the decisions that you, your colleagues,
and your subordinates make?
There are four general approaches to decision making, ranging from
intuitive to highly analytical.
William Goldstein, Robin Hogarth, Ralph Keeney, Joshua Klayman, John Quelch, and
Dick Wittlnk are acknowledged for their helpful comments. John C. Hershey and Howard
Kunreuther are thanked for supplying the PC software used in the demonstration experi-
men!. John Kirscher and Luke Knecht from the Harris Trust and Savings Bank are acknowl-
edged for sharing their bootstrapping experiences. We thank Allison Green for her fine
editing. None of the aforementioned bear any responsibility for errors.
•u:
10 CALIFORNIA MANAGEMENT REVIEW Fall 1993
Intuition
Many complain about their memory, few about their judgment.
—La Rochefoucauld
Intuition is quick and easy. It's hard to dispute decisions based on intuition
because the decision makers can't articulate the underlying reasoning.
People just know they're right, or they have a strong feeling about it, or
they're relying on "gut feel." Of course, if such a decision turns out to be
wrong, the decision maker has no defense.
Intuition can sometimes be brilliant. When based on extensive learning
from past experience, it may truly reflect "automated expertise."' Some
managers are so familiar with certain situations that they grasp the key
issues instantly and nearly automatically. However, they may have great
difficulty explaining their intuition. How much credibility can we give such
decisions? Decision research has revealed two common flaws in intuitive
decision making: random inconsistency and systematic distortion.
Inconsistency—Nine radiologists were independently shown information
from 96 cases of suspected stomach ulcers and asked to evaluate each case
in terms of the likelihood of a malignancy.- A week later, after these X-ray
specialists had forgotten the details of the 96 cases, they were presented
with the same ones again, but in a different order. A comparison of the ,
two sets of diagnoses showed a 23% chance that an opinion would be
changed.
People often apply c.
Some of it has converted wrong into strange spaces and stuff like the font but as far as I can tell all the text is there... BUSS1 A Level Exam Overview. Took me two days -.- make good freaking use of it! Covers EVERYTHING on the spec... GOOD LUCK EVERYONE! xx
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
when will pi network coin be available on crypto exchange.DOT TECH
There is no set date for when Pi coins will enter the market.
However, the developers are working hard to get them released as soon as possible.
Once they are available, users will be able to exchange other cryptocurrencies for Pi coins on designated exchanges.
But for now the only way to sell your pi coins is through verified pi vendor.
Here is the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
NO1 Uk Divorce problem uk all amil baba in karachi,lahore,pakistan talaq ka m...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
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NO1 Uk Black Magic Specialist Expert In Sahiwal, Okara, Hafizabad, Mandi Bah...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
Contact with Dawood Bhai Just call on +92322-6382012 and we'll help you. We'll solve all your problems within 12 to 24 hours and with 101% guarantee and with astrology systematic. If you want to take any personal or professional advice then also you can call us on +92322-6382012 , ONLINE LOVE PROBLEM & Other all types of Daily Life Problem's.Then CALL or WHATSAPP us on +92322-6382012 and Get all these problems solutions here by Amil Baba DAWOOD BANGALI
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how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
Greek trade a pillar of dynamic economic growth - European Business Review
Forecasting
1. ADDITIONAL NOTES BM014-3-3-DMKG
FORECASTING
Every decision in an organization is based on forecasts of future conditions.
-the lists of things that are forecast is endless; demand for products, interest rates, productivity, output,
resources needed, manpower available, time to finish a job, production rates, weather, share prices,
costs of raw materials and so on.
-forecast are needed continually, and as time moves on, actual performance is compared with forecasts,
original forecasts are updated, plans are modified and so on.
-there is no single method that is always best-we have to look at the number of models and see when
each can be used.
The time horizons for forecasting
1) Short range/short term forecast-cover the next few weeks-describing the continuing
demand for a product. Normally cover 3 months to a year. It is meant for planning
purchasing, job scheduling, workforce levels, job assignments and production levels.
2) Medium range/medium term forecast- look ahead between 3 months and 3 years, the
time typically to replace an old product by a new one. It is useful in sales planning,
production planning and budgeting, cash budgeting, analyzing operating plans.
3) Long term forecasts- look ahead several years-the time typical needed to build a new
factory. Uses for new product development, capital expenditures, facility location or
expansion and R&D.
-The time horizons affects the choice of forecasting method because of the availability of historical data,
how relevant this is for the future, the time available to make the forecast, the cost involved, the
seriousness of any errors, the effort considered worthwhile and so on.
-Types of forecasting: 1) Qualitative/Judgement
2) Quantitative/Statistical –a. Projective forecasting
b. Causal forecasting
Quantitative/Statistical
a.Projective forecasting-look at the pattern of past demand and extends this into the future.
-if demand in the last 4 weeks has been 10,20,30,40, we can project this pattern
into the future and suggest that demand in the next week will be around 50.
b.Causal forecasting- looks at outside influences and uses these to forecast.
2. ADDITIONAL NOTES BM014-3-3-DMKG
-the productivity of a factory might depend on the bonus rates paid to
employees-then we can forecast future productivity from the planned bonus
rate.
-Both of these approaches rely on accurate, numerical data-but if an organization is introducing an
entirely new product, it will have no past demand figures to project into the futures and it will not yet
know the outside influences that affect demand. So, the organization does not have the data for
quantitative method.
-The only option is to use a qualitative method.- such method are generally called judgmental
forecasting and rely on subjective views and opinions.
-this classification of methods does not mean that each is independent and must be used in isolation.
-managers should look at all available information and then make the decision they feel is the best.
-this means that any forecast should have a subjective review before it is used.
Qualitative/Judgement
-methods are subjective views, often based on the opinions of experts.
-if there is no relevant historical data (mostly due to developing new products)-the organizations cannot
use quantitative forecasting methods, and must use judgmental methods.
5 types of judgmental forecasting
1) Personal insights
2) Panel consensus
3) Market surveys
4) Historical analogy
5) Delphi method
Personal insights Panel consensus Market survey Historical Delphi method
analogy
-uses a single -combining the -Sometimes -demand for -the most formal
person who is views of even groups of most products of the judgement
familiar with the different people experts do not follow a methods & has a
situation to -but it can be have sufficient common pattern well-defined
produce a difficult to reach knowledge to through their procedure.
forecast based consensus. give a lifetime. -a number of
on their own -It is more reasonable -most sales go experts are
judgement. reliable than one forecast. This through periods contacted by post
-most widely person’s insight. happen, for of:- introduction & each is given a
used-the example; with -growth questionnaire to
managers should the launch of a -maturity complete.
avoid it. new product. -decline -the replies from
3. ADDITIONAL NOTES BM014-3-3-DMKG
-It relies entirely -then market -withdrawal these
on one person’s surveys collect -if organization questionnaires
judgment-as well data from a introduce a new are analyze &
as their opinions- sample of product, it might summaries are
prejudices & potential have a similar passed back to
ignorance. customers- product that was the experts.
-It can give good analyze their launched -each expert is
forecasts, but views & make recently & can then asked to
can also give inferences about assume that reconsider their
very bad ones. the population demand for the original reply in
-the major at large. new product will the light of the
weaknesses its -market survey follow the same summarized
unreabilities. can give useful pattern. replies from
-someone who is info but tend to others.
familiar with the be expensive -the process of
situation often and time modifying
produce worse consuming. responses in the
forecast than light of replies
someone knows made by the rest
nothing. of group is
repeated several
times.
-usually between
3 & 6 times.
Comparisons of the methods
Method Accuracy in term
Short Medium Long Cost
Personal insight Poor Poor Poor Low
Panel consensus Poor to fair Poor to fair Poor Low
Market survey Very good Good Fair High
Historical analogy Poor Fair to good Fair to good Medium
Delphi method Fair to very good Fair to very good Fair to very good Medium to high
-each of these judgmental methods work best in different circumstances.
-if you want a quick reply, personal insights is the fastest and cheapest method.
-If you want a reliable forecast, it may be worth organizing a market survey or Delphi method.