Food security has been a high priority in the socio-economic policy of Uzbekistan since the early years of independence. As a result of policies pursued, Uzbekistan has managed to achieve (and maintain thereafter) grain independence,1 and increase its per capita production of meat, milk, eggs, fruit and vegetables substantially enough to achieve self-sufficiency in basic foods. These accomplishments have been made possible mainly by institutional reforms, including the transformation of inefficient shirkats (agricultural cooperatives) into private farms, the development of private initiatives in food storage, processing and distribution, the establishment of the Arable Land Amelioration Fund to maintain and improve the quality of farmland, and so on.
Ensuring food security, therefore, will require more complex approaches, policies and tools. Therefore, in order to ensure the nation’s food security in the long term more complex and comprehensive approaches and policies need
to be implemented. Food security should be considered as an integrated issue incorporating three key dimensions: 1) food availability; 2) access to food; and 3) balanced and highquality nutrition. The principal benchmarks of food policy should address these three key areas.
On August 8-14, the 29th Triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE) is taking place in Milan, Italy. One of the Symposiums is titled "Food Security and Food Self-Sufficiency in Central Asia", where CER presented the results of its research on "Food Security in 2025: Availability, Accessibility and Nutrition".
The elements of Uzbekistan’s Food policy are now widely recognized and considered as internationally accepted best practices because it has proved its effectiveness and averted the threats to the nation’s food security.
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
Robert Johansson
SPECIAL EVENT
Discussion on the Key Findings of FAO’s 2019 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report
Co-Organized by FAO North America and IFPRI
JUL 18, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT
On August 8-14, the 29th Triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE) is taking place in Milan, Italy. One of the Symposiums is titled "Food Security and Food Self-Sufficiency in Central Asia", where CER presented the results of its research on "Food Security in 2025: Availability, Accessibility and Nutrition".
The elements of Uzbekistan’s Food policy are now widely recognized and considered as internationally accepted best practices because it has proved its effectiveness and averted the threats to the nation’s food security.
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
Robert Johansson
SPECIAL EVENT
Discussion on the Key Findings of FAO’s 2019 State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World Report
Co-Organized by FAO North America and IFPRI
JUL 18, 2019 - 12:15 PM TO 01:45 PM EDT
as part of the IFPRI-Egypt Seminar Series- funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.
The future of food agriculture - FAO / United NationsTheFoodChallenge
FAO produced this extensive and precise documento appointing the main issues and challenges we have to face to supply enough food in the world by 2050.
RDR seminar on ''Understanding Urban and Rural Household Food Consumption in ...IFPRI Africa
To conclude his presentation during the Research and Development Roundtables (RDR), Dr Wim mentioned that Senegal is a clear case of hidden hunger, Urban diet is bigger in size and more diversified than rural diet, which remains largely dominated by cereals and nutrient adequacies are higher in areas known for production of corresponding crops especially for iron and millet, except for vitamin B12 and vitamin A
The sustainable development goals report 2019 - United NationsTheFoodChallenge
Since its inception in 2015, the 2030 Agenda has provided a blueprint for shared prosperity in a sustainable world—a world where all people can live productive, vibrant and peaceful lives on a healthy planet. The year 2030 is just over a decade away, and we must ask ourselves if our actions today are laying the right foundation to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2019 provides evidence-based insights to answer this question.
Hunger is growing worldwide. And this is a major problem for the humanity.
The law of demand expresses the functional relationship between price and quantity demanded.
Assumption of ‘ Ceteris Paribus’. A hypothetical assumption
If price of a commodity falls, the quantity demanded of it will rise and vice versa.
Inverse relationship between price and quantity
Other factors also play an important role.
Real world variables.
The indifference curve analysis has also been used to explain producer’s equilibrium, the problems of exchange, rationing, taxation, supply of labour, welfare economics and a host of other problems. Some of the important problems are explained below with the help of this technique.
(1) The Problem of Exchange:
With the help of indifference curve technique the problem of exchange between two individuals can be discussed. We take two consumers A and В who possess two goods X and Y in fixed quantities respectively. The problem is how can they exchange the goods possessed by each other. This can be solved by constructing an Edgeworth-Bowley box diagram on the basis of their preference maps and the given supplies of goods.
Beyond agriculture: Measuring agri-food system GDP and employmentIFPRI-PIM
Webinar with James Thurlow (IFPRI/CGIAR-PIM) presenting a new approach for measuring agri-food system GDP and employment. (Recorded on April 8, 2021)
More info and full recording: https://bit.ly/mafsGDP
"Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries", presented by Kamiljon T. Akramov, at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Methodology, challenges and capacity development activities of Tier I Food se...FAO
Methodology, challenges and capacity development activities of Tier I Food security indicators: 2.1.1 ‘‘Prevalence of undernourishment’’ and 2.1.2 ‘‘Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population, based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES)’
http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-events/afcas/afcas25/en/
as part of the IFPRI-Egypt Seminar Series- funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project called “Evaluating Impact and Building Capacity” (EIBC) that is implemented by IFPRI.
The future of food agriculture - FAO / United NationsTheFoodChallenge
FAO produced this extensive and precise documento appointing the main issues and challenges we have to face to supply enough food in the world by 2050.
RDR seminar on ''Understanding Urban and Rural Household Food Consumption in ...IFPRI Africa
To conclude his presentation during the Research and Development Roundtables (RDR), Dr Wim mentioned that Senegal is a clear case of hidden hunger, Urban diet is bigger in size and more diversified than rural diet, which remains largely dominated by cereals and nutrient adequacies are higher in areas known for production of corresponding crops especially for iron and millet, except for vitamin B12 and vitamin A
The sustainable development goals report 2019 - United NationsTheFoodChallenge
Since its inception in 2015, the 2030 Agenda has provided a blueprint for shared prosperity in a sustainable world—a world where all people can live productive, vibrant and peaceful lives on a healthy planet. The year 2030 is just over a decade away, and we must ask ourselves if our actions today are laying the right foundation to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2019 provides evidence-based insights to answer this question.
Hunger is growing worldwide. And this is a major problem for the humanity.
The law of demand expresses the functional relationship between price and quantity demanded.
Assumption of ‘ Ceteris Paribus’. A hypothetical assumption
If price of a commodity falls, the quantity demanded of it will rise and vice versa.
Inverse relationship between price and quantity
Other factors also play an important role.
Real world variables.
The indifference curve analysis has also been used to explain producer’s equilibrium, the problems of exchange, rationing, taxation, supply of labour, welfare economics and a host of other problems. Some of the important problems are explained below with the help of this technique.
(1) The Problem of Exchange:
With the help of indifference curve technique the problem of exchange between two individuals can be discussed. We take two consumers A and В who possess two goods X and Y in fixed quantities respectively. The problem is how can they exchange the goods possessed by each other. This can be solved by constructing an Edgeworth-Bowley box diagram on the basis of their preference maps and the given supplies of goods.
Beyond agriculture: Measuring agri-food system GDP and employmentIFPRI-PIM
Webinar with James Thurlow (IFPRI/CGIAR-PIM) presenting a new approach for measuring agri-food system GDP and employment. (Recorded on April 8, 2021)
More info and full recording: https://bit.ly/mafsGDP
"Structural Transformation as a Pathway to Food Security: Comparative Analysis of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian Countries", presented by Kamiljon T. Akramov, at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
Methodology, challenges and capacity development activities of Tier I Food se...FAO
Methodology, challenges and capacity development activities of Tier I Food security indicators: 2.1.1 ‘‘Prevalence of undernourishment’’ and 2.1.2 ‘‘Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population, based on the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES)’
http://www.fao.org/economic/ess/ess-events/afcas/afcas25/en/
2030 Vision for the Global Food System: Implications for IndiaThe World Bank
What is India's role in a productive and resilient food system that can help feed the world? A plenary presentation at the 12th Agricultural Science Congress, Karnal, India.
Madhur Gautam, David Laborde, Abdullah Mamun, Will Martin, Valeria Piñeiro, Rob Vos
POLICY SEMINAR
Can agricultural policies deliver better value for money for people, the planet, and the economy?
Co-Organized by IFPRI and World Bank Group
FEB 2, 2022 - 9:30 TO 11:00AM EST
The global livestock sector: Trends and health implicationsILRI
Presented by Timothy Robinson, William Wint, Giulia Conchedda, Giuseppina Cinardi, Thomas Van Boeckel, Bernard Bett and Marius Gilbert at the Workshop on Measuring Progress, Biennial Meeting of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (RSTMH), Oxford, 27 September 2014
This presentation is all about highlighting present scenario of food security in India and the Issues and challenges it is facing. Furthermore, some of the pragmatic measures have been given so as to make India a food secure nation.
Presentation delivered by Dr. Jikun Huang (Chinese Academy of Sciences, China) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org
A one-day Strategic Foresight Conference took place at IFPRI Headquarters in Washington DC on November 7, 2014. Participants from leading global modeling groups, collaborating CGIAR centers and research programs, and other partners reviewed new long-term projections for global agriculture from IFPRI and other leading institutions, examined the potential impacts of climate change and other key challenges, and discussed the role of foresight work in identifying and supporting promising solutions.
Topics included:
Long-term outlook and challenges for food & agriculture
Addressing the challenges
Foresight in the CGIAR
Webcast video of morning sessions available on Global Futures program website here: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/2014/11/03/global-futures-strategic-foresight-conference/
Why invest in livestock-based options for livelihoods, healthy lives and a su...ILRI
Keynote Address by Modibo Traore (FAO) at the ILRI@40 Conference on livestock-based options for sustainable food and nutritional security, economic well-being and healthy lives, Nairobi, Kenya, 1 October 2014
Как показывает мировой опыт, развитие ИТС требует серьезных финансовых средств. И сейчас, когда Узбекистан приступает к проектам в этой сфере, необходима выработка комплексного подхода к реализации данной политики, чтобы обеспечить (1) оптимальное, наименее затратное внедрение ИТС в транспортный сектор страны, (2) достижение максимальных позитивных экономических эффектов от развития интеллектуальных транспортных систем.
Для достижения к 2030 г. уровня развития, соответствующего верхнему сегменту группы стран со средним уровнем дохода на душу населения (4126-12745 долл. США), Узбекистану необходимо совершить экономический прорыв, который возможно осуществить только в условиях резкого роста конкурентоспособности экономики. Важнейшим фактором снижения непроизводительных затрат и повышения конкурентоспособности экономики является совершенствование внешнеторгового режима.
Несмотря на активные меры правительства по совершенствованию деловой среды, индикатор “Международная торговля” для Узбекистана в ежегодном докладе Всемирного банка “Ведение бизнеса” в последние годы практически не улучшался. Это обусловлено как спецификой применявшейся методологии, так и фактическими высокими издержками субъектов ВЭД, связанными с прохождением внешнеторговых
процедур. В 2015 г. Всемирный банк изменил методологию оценки индекса “Международная торговля” – теперь для Узбекистана он будет рассчитываться уже без привязки к морским портам. Само по себе это уже приведет к некоторому росту позиций Узбекистана. Но для значимого улучшения рейтинга страны в части показателя “Международная торговля” необходимо продолжать работу по таким направлениям, как количество разрешительных документов для осуществления экспорта и импорта, финансовые и временные издержки предпринимателей на исполнение требуемых процедур.
By 2030 Uzbekistan needs to join the group of upper-middle income countries, maintain annual growth rates at 8% and implement structural transformation of the economy by increasing the share of manufacturing industry from 9% to 22%, and the share of services from 45% to 55%. At the same time, the population is estimated to reach 37 million by 2030.
Faster industrialization, population and income growth will significantly increase the need of the economy for resources and at the same time will augment negative manmade impact on the landscape, generating threats for biodiversity conservation. The key challenge in implementation of the long-term strategy is linked to the resource scarcity and risks of natural resource depletion needed for current and future generations.
Сегодня в Узбекистане доля среднего класса составляет около 28-30%, и в интересах социально-экономического развития страны необходимо увеличить средний класс приблизительно вдвое к 2030 году. Около 45-48% населения сегодня составляет "резерв среднего класса" – люди, которые при определенных условиях могут войти в состав среднего класса либо перейти в разряд малообеспеченных. Их переход в средний класс потребует формирования системы институтов – социальных лифтов, которые облегчат переход в средний класс из резерва.
Социальные лифты призваны обеспечить отбор индивидов, обладающих определенными характеристиками, предоставить им необходимые ресурсы и возможности для повышения своего статуса в обществе. Каждый из подобных социальных лифтов обладает как преимуществами, так и ограничениями с точки зрения реализации политик расширения среднего класса.
Сегодня доля трансакционного сектора Узбекистана составляет около 40,7% к ВВП. Вместе с тем, одна из его главных функций - содействие процессам экономического обмена - реализуется не в полной мере, что создает неравные условия для развития предприятий перерабатывающих отраслей в зависимости от их размера и формы
собственности. Расширение доли трансакционного сектора в ВВП происходит, в основном, за счет повышения цен на его услуги, в то время как рост сектора должен происходить преимущественно за счет увеличения количества сделок по оказанию услуг и диверсификации их видов. Это проявляется в высоком уровне трансакционных издержек хозяйствующих субъектов производственных отраслей, что препятствует их укрупнению и качественному развитию, а также замедляет процессы индустриализации и структурной трансформации экономики.
Эффективный транспортный сектор является важнейшей составляющей экономического развития. Ключевой стратегической задачей транспортной политики Узбекистана должно стать выстраивание транспортной системы так, чтобы обеспечить относительное снижение цен на транспортные услуги, оперативность, надежность и доступность услуг транспорта для хозяйствующих субъектов, диверсифицировать транспортные маршруты и стать связующим звеном в трансконтинентальных и региональных логистических схемах.
Efficient transport sector is the paramount component of the economic development. The key strategic task of the transport policy shall become the forming of the transport system of Uzbekistan to the effect that it would be possible to ensure the relative decrease of the costs for transportation services, increase of operational efficiency, reliability and availability of transportation services for the economic entities, diversity of transport routes and become the connecting link in transcontinental and regional logistics schemes.
Будучи совместной инициативой Правительства Узбекистана и агентств Организации Объединенных Наций (ООН) в Узбекистане, Доклад представляет собой анализ и оценку прогресса страны по достижению Целей развития тысячелетия за период 2000-2013 гг. В Докладе определены ключевые факторы, способствовавшие достижению ЦРТ, и сформулированы задачи, стоящие перед Узбекистаном в ближайшие годы.
В ходе подготовки Второго национального доклада состоялся эффективный диалог всех вовлеченных сторон: было сформировано 8 рабочих групп с участием национальных экспертов из 15 министерств и ведомств, и представителей восьми агентств ООН, организовано 4 цикла рабочих встреч и круглых столов для обсуждения логики и ключевых идей документа, были привлечены международные консультанты.
С презентацией доклада и прогресса по достижению ЦРТ в Узбекистане выступил Центр экономических исследований, являющийся координирующим институтом по подготовке доклада.
This report is a joint effort of the Government of Uzbekistan and the United Nations (UN) agencies in Uzbekistan, and it aims to provide an analysis and assessment of the country’s progress towards the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals during 2000-2013. It also identifies key factors that have contributed to the achievement of the goals as well as highlighting the challenges the country will have to address in the years to come.
The MDG report is the result of a highly participatory and consultative process: 8 working groups were formed with national experts from more than 15 Ministries and institutions and representatives of eight UN agencies; 4 rounds of working group meetings and round tables were organized to discuss the structure and core content of the document; several international experts were involved in its preparation. The Center of Economic Research (CER), a coordinating body on preparation of the MDG Report, has made a presentation of MDG Report to highlight the progress towards attainment of MDGs in Uzbekistan. In turn, the UN Office in Uzbekistan has delivered information on key principles and priorities of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) at the global level.
Since 2008, the role of regions in the structural transformation of the country has significantly increased. A series of measures have been adopted to improve the economic potential and competitiveness of the regions. Production, centered previously in separate centers, gradually "expands and moves" to other regions of the country. In the implementation of regional policy focus has shifted from the concept of equalization of development levels of the regions (inter-regional differentiation), to the policy of their polarized (focused) development, based on the promotion of "points" and "poles" of economic growth. The main instruments of this policy become the creation of free industrial economic zones (FIEZ), the implementation of major investment projects and others.
The emphasis on small towns as drivers of growth brings new demands to the methods of policy implementation in the regions in order to ensure optimization schemes of productive forces location and obtain the multiplier effect at creating employment, infrastructure, income. Under these conditions, the role of local authorities significantly increases. From simple solution centers they should become real managers, who are interested in the growth of the region.
Начиная с 2008 года роль регионов в структурных преобразованиях страны значительно возросла. Был принят целый ряд мер, направленных на повышение экономического потенциала и конкурентоспособности регионов. Производства, сконцентрированные ранее в отдельных центрах, поэтапно «расширяются и двигаются» в другие регионы страны. В реализации региональной политики акцент смещается от концепции выравнивания уровней развития регионов (межрегиональная дифференциация), к политике их поляризованного (сфокусированного) развития, основанного на стимулировании «точек» и «полюсов» роста экономики. Основными инструментами данной политики становятся создание свободных индустриально-экономических зон (СИЭЗ), реализация крупных инвестиционных проектов и др.
Упор на малые города как драйверы роста, выдвигает новые требования к методам реализации политики в регионах с целью обеспечения оптимизации схем размещения производительных сил и получения муль
This infographic shows Human Development Index of Uzbekistan for 2013. Also, it includes some comparison with other countries of Central Asia and Europe.
Действующую модель пенсионной системы можно охарактеризовать как распределительная система с элементами пенсионного страхования. Хотя с 2005 года был введен обязательный накопительный компонент, каркас системы по-прежнему составляет распределительный компонент. Он представлен внебюджетным Пенсионным фондом при Министерстве Финансов, который генерирует ресурсы за счет страховых взносов от ФОТ как работодателей, так и работников.
Пенсионный фонд является одновременно институтом поддержки пенсионеров и борьбы с бедностью для тех групп населения, которые не имеют отношения к пенсионной системе. Следствие такой политики – рост расходов Фонда из-за значительного числа досрочных (льготных) пенсий. Их доля в структуре расходов Пенсионного фонда достигла в 2013 году 48,5% (в 2005 году – 29,7%).
There are two viable options of transition to the resource-efficient model:
Option 1 – phased: increase in extraction of energy resources by 1% before 2020, and by 2% after 2020, while reducing energy intensity down to 40% by 2030.
Option 2 – fast-track: growth in extraction of energy resources by 1-2% until 2020 and by 2-3% after 2020, combined with reduction of energy intensity by 2.3-fold until 2030.
Рост реальных доходов населения создает условия для повышения спроса на развлекательные, туристические и рекреационные услуги.
Общемировые тенденции в сфере туризма так же оказывали благоприятное влияние на приток иностранных туристов. В 2015 году в мире прогнозируется рост числа туристов на уровне 4,7%.
Несмотря на всю критику в адрес разных международных рейтингов, одной из наиболее важных ролей в современном мире остается следующая – быть для стран мерилами успехов в развитии. Рейтинги сегодня охватывают большинство сторон жизни государства и общества – различные аспекты человеческого развития, качество управления, деловую среду и другие измерения, из которых складывается понимание уровня развития страны и, в конечном итоге, ее привлекательности для зарубежных партнеров.
На смену традиционным индикаторам пришли международные рейтинги – одновременно и продукт глобализации, и инструмент ее расширения. За короткий исторический период они превратились в самый популярный инструментарий сопоставления стран и регионов мира, широко признанный инвесторами, донорами и правительствами при принятии решений. Именно благодаря своей популярности рейтинги стали неотъемлемой частью внешнего позиционирования многих развитых и развивающихся стран.
Центр экономических исследований (ЦЭИ) совместно с Экономической и социальной комиссией ООН по Азии и Тихому океану (ЭСКАТО) в 2011-2013 гг. реализовал 2 совместных проекта:
- Совершенствование городского управления и инфраструктуры городов в Узбекистане: проблемы и поиск новых механизмов и инструментов (2011г.)
- Урбанизация в Центральной Азии: вызовы, проблемы и перспективы (2012-2013гг.).
Основная цель проектов – анализ взаимовлияния процессов урбанизации и индустриализации в Узбекистане и регионе ЦА в переходный период.
Social contract – is an implicit agreement between the government and main social groups, formulated around basic living needs of the society: sustainable livelihoods, guaranteed employment and income, as well as confidence in tomorrow. This implicit agreement determines the nature and model of the society and creates the background and the framework for human development as well as realization of social rights of individuals. Accordingly, it is social contract that defines the model of social policy at each stage of development in the country.
In future Uzbekista faces new challenges, which stipulate the need for transformation of the economy, society, and institutions. With acceleration of transformation processes, the search for new points of balance and appropriate review of the model of social contract may be required to reach the goals of structural reforms and retain social accord. The response to the question, what should be the model of social contract at the subsequent stages will be defined based on the mid-term and long-term development goals of the country.
Работа над Национальной стратегией структурных реформ Узбекистана на период до 2030 г. «Видение – 2030» была запущена в рамках совместной инициативы Всемирного банка и Правительства Узбекистана, при поддержке ПРООН. ЦЭИ был выбран как один из главных национальных партнеров для разработки данной Концепции.
Стратегия структурных реформ Узбекистана разрабатывается в поддержку развития страны для перехода к 2030 году в группу стран со среднем уровнем дохода.
Прежде чем писать статью, необходимо определиться: зачем Вам эта статья? А потом уже спросите себя: зачем ваша статья публике или конкретному журналу? Данная презентация поможет вам улучшить свои навыки по написанию научных статей.
More from Center for Economic Research (CER, Uzbekistan) (20)
Vietnam Mushroom Market Growth, Demand and Challenges of the Key Industry Pla...IMARC Group
The Vietnam mushroom market size is projected to exhibit a growth rate (CAGR) of 6.52% during 2024-2032.
More Info:- https://www.imarcgroup.com/vietnam-mushroom-market
Food Processing and Preservation Presentation.pptxdengejnr13
The presentation covers key areas on food processing and preservation highlighting the traditional methods and the current, modern methods applicable worldwide for both small and large scale.
Hotel management involves overseeing all aspects of a hotel's operations to ensure smooth functioning and exceptional guest experiences. This multifaceted role includes tasks such as managing staff, handling reservations, maintaining facilities, overseeing finances, and implementing marketing strategies to attract guests. Effective hotel management requires strong leadership, communication, organizational, and problem-solving skills to navigate the complexities of the hospitality industry and ensure guest satisfaction while maximizing profitability.
1. Foreseeing the future Food Security in 2025
Center for Economic Research Tashkent, 2013
2. Uzbekistan’s approach to Food Security 1991-2013
Starting position in 1991:
-
Uzbekistan – a net importer of basic foods;
-
National agriculture heavily specialized in cotton-growing;
-
Hard currency revenues and reserves insufficient to close gap by imports;
-
Importance to strike a delicate balance to achieve a number of development goals Food Security – one of the Priority issues for Government Government takes a pro-active role in the food policy regulation process Policies employed:
-
Restructuring of the agricultural output mix;
-
Institutional reforms in agriculture;
-
Welfare improvement policies (price controls, social assistance to the target groups;)
-
National nutrition policy.
30%
53%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Flour fortification
Salt iodization
Covered
Not covered
National nutrition policy:
flour fortification & salt iodization
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1991
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
Grapes
Fruit and
berries
Melons and
watermelons
Vegetables
Potatoes
Cotton
Grain
Restructuring of the agricultural output mix:
structure of the sown area by types of crops(%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1991
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
Rural enterprises by categories, %
Private farms
Dekhkan farms
Agricultural enterprises
Institutional reforms in agriculture: Structure of rural enterprises by categories, %
Structure of agriculture
Cotton
Ind
Cons
GDP structure,
Agric
Exp
Imp
Structure of trade
44
16,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Welfare improvement policy: GDP per capita and poverty rate
GDP per capita(2000=100)
Poverty rate, %
Starting position in 1991
3. Uzbekistan’s Food Policy: Main Achievements
Achievements:
•
Grain independence as well as the self- sufficiency in basic foods is attained;
•
Steep rise in crop yield and output of meat, eggs, potatoes, fruit & vegetables;
•
Improved access to the basic foods;
•
Improved quality of nutrition, decline in child mortality and improvement in anthropometric indicators;
•
Uzbekistan’s Food Policy proved its effectiveness and averted the threats to the nation’s food security;
•
Elements of Uzbekistan’s Food policy are now widely recognized and considered as internationally accepted best practices
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990
2012
Consumption of basic foods 1990 VS 2012 (kg/ year)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Uzbekistan
Low income countries
World
Central Asia
Gross per capita food production index:
Uzbekistan VS Other economies
(base 2004-2006)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995
2012
Crop yield : 1995 VS 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
Production of basic foods, ton per capita (left)
Share of food products in total imports, %
Per capita production of basic foods VS food imports (1995-2012)
34,6
26
18,9
14,2
10,9
10,6
65,3
32,2
33,1
29,2
21
21,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012
Infant mortality (per 1000 live births))
Maternal mortality (per 100 000 live births)
Maternal and infant mortality
(1990-2012)
4. How to sustain the achieved results: Main challenges
•
Current and expected trends in the global and national economy are posing new challenges for sustaining nation’s food security in the long term:
•
Population growth and change in the demographic pattern + growth of personal income transformations of the lifestyle and behavioral stereotypes increased demand for food and transformed food consumption pattern
•
Aggravating problems of deteriorating land quality and diminishing water supply (due to the climatic and geopolitical factors)
•
Rise of world food prices growing demand for food in the third world countries + limited food supply due to the climate factor and expanding biofuel production
•
To cope with the new challenges more comprehensive and complex approaches, methods and policy instruments need to be implemented
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
Index of land quality against GDP per capita (1993-2012)
Index of land quality
GDP per cap (th. USD)
70
70,5
71
71,5
72
72,5
73
73,5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Expected longevity (right)
Birth rate
Demographic trends: population, natality, expected longevity
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1950
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Population (thous.p.), right
Share of population above 60
Share of population above 80
Average age
Transformation of the demographic pattern: Ageing
1328
1431
3271
571
1045
2169
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990
2000
2010
GDP per capita (USD)
Growth of personal income: GDP and cash income per capita
0
50
100
150
200
250
Projections of price indexes for selected food categories
1990-92=100
2009
2015
2020
5. Complex approach to the Food Security: 3 key dimensions
Food Security
Balanced and high-quality nutrition
Food Availability
Access to food
•
Food Security should be considered as an integrated concept incorporating 3 key dimensions
•
The principal benchmarks of food policy should be determined in the three key areas:
Goal 1 – to ensure the availability of the required amount of food;
Goal 2 – to ensure the access to the essential foods for all the strata of the population;
Goal 3 – to maintain a balanced and high-quality nutrition in order to improve the nation’s gene pool.
6. Goal 1: Food Availability
•
Projections of food production and consumption in 2025 inertial development pattern will lead to the deficit of food and will not ensure the availability of the required amount of food Scenarios to cover the deficit:
•
Scenario 1 – sustaining a balance between the consumption and production of food by:
•
boosting productivity and crop yield;
•
expanding the sown area.
•
Scenario 2 – focus on production of foods in which Uzbekistan has a comparative advantage
•
Reallocate 42 thous. ha from grain to fruit and 60 th. ha from cotton to vegetables;
•
Increase crop yield of fruit twice, of vegetables – by 1,6 times.
Difference between amount of supply and demand, thousand tons
Crop yield, centners/hectare
Crop areas, thousand hectares
2012
2025
2012
2025
Grain
-1542.5
42.4
55.00
1472.3
1500
Vegetables
-1650
300
440
162.8
195.5
Fruits
-400.4
100
160
244.3
269.3
Cotton
Feed crops
Change in crop areas, thousand hectares
-311
311
Change in production, thousand tons
-839.7
11,184
Production costs, million USD
-327.6
103.8
Additional costs for meat and milk production, million USD
1,730.1
Change in cotton export revenue, million USD
-416.5
Potential benefits from decreased imports of meat and milk, million USD
3,909.2
Total gain, million USD
1,331
Demand, thousand tons
Production, thousand tons
Shortfall, thousand tons
Feed
15,614
4,430
11,184
Veget. VS Cotton
Fruit VS Wheat
Change in crop areas, thousand hectares
60.0
-60.0
42.00
-42,00
Increase in crop yield, centners/hectare
180.0
1.2
100.0
2,4
Change in production, thousand tons
5,810.4
-11.94
3,283.0
165.19
Change in production costs, billion UZS
1,154. 4
-59. 8
149.1
-26.5
Change in export revenue (import costs), million USD.
2,232.2
-256.4
4,866.8
-57.2
Additional investments, million USD
728.363
1,576. 7
Change in employment
125.81
-28.2
37.7
-1.68
Total gain, million USD
1,384.2
3,398.2
Additional jobs created, thousands
97.6
36
Scenario 1. Sustaining a balance between food production and consumption
Projections on supply and demand for forage crops
Scenario 2. Focus on production of crops with the comparative advantage
Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025
(consumption =100%)
7. Goal 1: Food Availability: Recommendations to implement the scenarios
Effective implementation of either of the scenarios will require to:
1)
Improve the water management and water use system to produce the required amounts of food:
2)
Introduce advanced agro-technologies to raise the crop yield and livestock productivity 3) Step up research and development in agriculture to create more efficient local varieties of plants and breeds of animals and improve the quality of animal-husbandry technologies (90 mln. USD) 4) Expand and improve the quality of the veterinary services: in 2025 30,3 thousand veterinary personnel need to be present within the sector. (Now - 8,3 thousand specialists (27% of the required level))
Drip irrigation is applied for 1,012 mln ha
Investments of 4554 mln USD are required
30% less fertilizers are needed to grow crops
Production costs decrease
Productivity and total revenue increase by 40%
Land laser levelling technology is introduced
Reduction of mechanisation costs by 14%
Reduction of labor costs by 23%
Decrease of water use by 30%
Rise of productivity by 4 centners per ha
Profitability increase by 22% in a year and by 37% in 2 years
8. Goal 2: Food Accessibility
1)
Reformation of the agrarian institutions and optimization of the farm size by expanding the animal farms to 1000 heads of livestock, vegetable-growing farms - to 85 ha, fruit-growing farms - to 40 ha.
2)
Create an efficient system of procurements, distribution, processing and sales of agricultural food products a) Establish an efficient cold storage system for fresh and processed foods b) Develop an efficient system of food processing c) Develop the efficient sales, marketing and distribution system - Reformation of institutions in agriculture will require the shift from bazaar trade to the grocery store and supermarket trade to minimize transaction, transportation and administrative costs and ensure food safety
-
By 2025, 70% of retail food sales should take place in stores and supermarkets (now – 37%) 430 additional supermarkets need to be built by 2025
Size of animal farms is expanded to 1000 heads
Extra investments of 929,6 mln USD required
Due to the economies of scale productivity of farms increase by 35%
If the additional amount of meat is exported extra revenue will be 2,25 bln. USD
Ensure 5,8 cubic meters of cold storage facilities in 2025
30% decrease in losses due to the ineffective storage
Additional investment of 1,4 bln USD required
Total benefit of the nation = +2,095 bln. USD
Multiplier effect for other sectors 2,4 bln. USD
Access to food provided throughout all the seasons, seasonal volatility of food prices is smoothed
In 2025 Uzbekistan needs to become an upper middle income country
Transformation of lifestyle, behavioral stereotypes, structure and mode of nutrition
Annual benefits of 600 mln USD 67275 jobs generated
Share of processing should increase:
-
for meat from 6,9% to 30%
-
For milk – from 11% to 50%
-
For fruit and veg. – from 13,3% to 30%
-
For grapes – from 15% to 35%
Additional investment of 4,3 bln USD required
9. Goal 3: Balanced nutrition and Quality of Food
1)
Balanced and high-quality nutrition is essential to improve the nation’s gene pool
2)
If the balanced and high-quality diet is provided:
-
Health expenditures will decline by 1,68 bln. USD by 2025;
-
Benefits from improvement of the quality of human capital will account for 1,36 bln. USD; 3) Instruments to achieve these results are:
-
Implementation of programs to improve the nutrition of pregnant women, breast-feeding mothers and children under 5 (1,14 bln USD);
-
Introduction of dietary standards and guidelines according to the ISO-2000 (257,8 mln USD);
-
Raising public awareness and dissemination of the information on healthy lifestyle and appropriate nutrition.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Consumption per capita: actual consumption against norms, 2025 =100%
2025
2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
Developing economies
Developed economies
Uzbekistan
Consumption levels of the various food groups: Uzbekistan VS Other economies (kg per cap)
10. Focus on the regional context is important!
1)
Regional context should be taken into account while developing the National Food policies;
2)
Production, consumption and deficit of food products in other economies of the region are estimated
Opportunities for the regional cooperation:
•
Exports of fruit to Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan
•
Exports of vegetables to Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan
•
Imports of vegetable oil from Kazakhstan & Russia
•
Imports of grain from Kazakhstan Processing of grain in Uzbekistan consumption on the domestic market + exports to Afghanistan
0
50
100
150
200
Production
Deficit
Expected consumption in 2025
Uzbekistan: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025 (Scenario 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Production
Deficit
Expected consumption in 2025
Russia: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025
0
200
400
600
800
Production
Deficit
Expected consumption in 2025
Kazakhstan: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Grain
Meat
Milk
Vegetables
Fruit
Production
Deficit
Tajikistan: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025
Expected consumption in 2025
0
50
100
150
200
Production
Deficit
Expected consumption in 2025
Kyrgyzstan: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025
11. Findings
•
The complex multidimensional approach to food security needs to be implemented;
•
There is a need for multi-optional scenarios and estimations;
•
Forecasting methods should go beyond the extrapolation, but rather take into account the transformative processes in all spheres;
•
Food Security Strategy needs to be integrated into the broader framework of the country development strategy;
•
The regional development context is important to develop the National Food Security Strategy.
12. Questions for discussion
•Are there any dimensions, critical issues which were omitted, should get considered in more detail?
•What approaches, methods and indicators need to be revised?
• What’s next? How can we jump to formulating the detailed Action Plan and Road Map? Suggested formats and models.
• Are there windows for synergies?
13. Thank you!
Resources in English: http://www.cer.uz http://transformation.cer.uz/ https://www.facebook.com/CER.Uzbekistan