There are two viable options of transition to the resource-efficient model: Option 1 – phased: increase in extraction of energy resources by 1% before 2020, and by 2% after 2020, while reducing energy intensity down to 40% by 2030. Option 2 – fast-track: growth in extraction of energy resources by 1-2% until 2020 and by 2-3% after 2020, combined with reduction of energy intensity by 2.3-fold until 2030.

1. Transition to a Resource-Efficient
Pattern of Growth in Energy
Sector
Tashkent, 2015

2. Uzbekistan: New Development Goals Towards 2030
Development goals and trends towards 2030:
• Ultimate goal – to ensure sustainable economic growth at 7-8% per annum;
• Transformation of GDP structure by increasing the share of
manufacturing from 9% in 2012 to 22% in 2030; shift towards
production of more sophisticated services;
• Transformation of pattern of enterprises: more large and
medium enterprises;
• Population growth, change in the demographic pattern and
growth of personal income;
• Transformation of employment pattern and related social
transformations contributing to the change of the lifestyle,
consumption pattern, behavioral stereotypes;
 All this will expand the demand for energy resources to 6.88% per annum
 To cope with the new challenges and employ the emerging
opportunities the revision of the existing pattern of energy consumption
may be required
9,1 9 17 22
14,1
26,4
19,4 15
28
19,5 10,5 8
48,9 45,1 52 55
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2012 2020 2030
Processing industry Mining industry
Agriculture Services
Uzbekistan: Transformation
of GDP structure to 2030, %
Population Growth and
Transformation of Demographic
Structure: 2012 vs 2030
2,3
18,2
9,1
5,1
22,1
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
Above the
working age
Working-age
people
Below the
working age
2012 2030
44,5
32,3
19,1
4,1
0
10
20
30
40
50
2015 2020 2025 2030
Transformation of the pattern of enterprises:
Value added
Uzbekistan: Transformation of the Structure of Society

3. Transition to the Energy-Efficient Growth Pattern: 2 Viable Options
• Two viable options of transition to the resource-efficient model in energy sector:
• Option 1 – phased approach: increase in extraction of energy resources by 1.5%, while
reducing energy intensity down to 40% by 2030  Energy balance shortage at 31.9%,
maximum economic growth of 5% towards 2030.
• Option 2 – fast-track: growth in extraction of energy resources by 2%, combined with
reduction of energy intensity by 2.3-fold until 2030  5.5% surplus of the energy balance;
growth at more than 8% per annum.
 Option 2 will enable to attain the goals of the Strategy
Option Annual growth
of production
of energy
resources, %
Annual
growth of
energy
efficiency, %
Structure of energy balance Energy
balance,
%
Maximum
economic
growth?
%
Phased
approach
1.5 2.8
33.5% of demand covered by
expansion of production &
energy efficiency
0.6 % - by solar energy, 0.4% -
by biogas, shale oil, etc.
- 31.9 5
Fast – track
approach
2 4.7
70 % of demand covered by
expansion of production &
energy efficiency
0.6 % - by solar energy, 0.4% -
by biogas, shale oil, etc.
+5.5 Over
8%

4. How to implement Resource-Efficient Growth Pattern in Energy
Sector: Improve Energy Efficiency of Economy
Strategies to improve energy efficiency towards 2030:
1. Complete phase-out of incandescent bulbs, upgrade outdated
heating boilers and pumps in all sectors;
2. Introduce within 2 years special systems to track energy and
financial flows in the sector (ERP systems, electronic trading, IFRS
reporting);
3. Introduce online system of monitoring and billing for households
(the integrated system of metering of energy consumption),
change the principles of settling accounts with farmers;
4. Introduce technologies to monitor energy flows while
transportation (SCADA); complete modernization of power
distribution networks and transformers by 2020;

5. How to implement Resource-Efficient Growth Pattern in Energy
Sector: Develop Solar Energy
• Solar energy should become the key driver of
energy sector development and account for 6%
in the power balance in 2030.
• Potential of renewables in Uzbekistan is 3.1
times as high as the current production of
primary energy resources.
• Development of solar energy will generate
direct and multiplier effects by boosting
demand in the associated sectors, expanding
consumption and thus, generating demand for
labor and accelerating transformation
processes.
2020 2025 2030
Generation of solar energy
(3000 MW), GWt 1827.7
3655.
4
5483.
1
Total amount of electricity
generated 67500 78600 90100
Share of solar energy in energy
balance 2.7% 4.7% 6.1%
Share of solar energy could grow to 6% by 2030
Multiplier effects to be generated from solar energy
Effects of solar energy
development
2013-2030
Direct and first level multiplier
effects
3.5 bln USD
Second-level multiplier effects 0.87 bln USD
Gas savings 2.9 bln USD
Net benefit (annual) 204.5 mln USD
Energy source Technical
potential
Employed
potential
Hydro 2.32 0.72
Solar 176.8 appr. 0
Wind 0.4 appr. 0
Biomass 0.5 appr. 0
Total 182.3 0.72
Potential of Renewables in Uzbekistan, mln t.o.e.

6. How to implement Resource-Efficient Growth Pattern in Energy
Sector: Institutional Reforms
1. Implementation of the suggested solutions is not possible without the
institutional reforms
2. To identify the strategies for institutional reforms in Uzbekistan, we
looked at the experience of countries, that encountered with the problem
of scarcity of energy resources - net importers of energy resources
What does experience of net importers
suggest?
Regulatory function not performed by NOC
NOC budget is not approved by Government
Chairman is not a minister of energy and not
appointed by government officials
Competition
Privatization in the system of energy
distribution
Emphasis on energy efficiency, prices for
energy are higher than in net exporters
What we recommend for Uzbekistan?
Split up business functions from regulatory
functions in the energy sector. This requires to set
up one regulatory body (Ministry of Energy) and
leave companies to explicitly focus on business
operations
Gradually reduce the difference between prices for
domestic consumers and export prices of gas by
raising domestic tariffs (with mechanisms to ensure
affordability for low-income group)
After 2020 gradual privatization in the system of
energy distribution and transmission could be
started to attract private investments into the
sector.

7. Effective Solutions for Institutional Reforms: Net Exporters VS
Net Importers of Energy Resources
Korea China Malaysia Vietnam
KOGAS CNPC SINOPEC CNOOC Petronas
PetroVietna
m
Ownership
(public vs private)
60,9 vs
39,1
86.29 vs
13.71
76 vs 24
66% vs
34%
100% public 100% public
Competition
Yes, a number of
foreign companies on
the market
Yes, main competitors
–Chinese companies,
foreign companies.
Competition
is limited
No
competition
Is chairman also minister of energy
or appointed by head of state?
No No No No Yes Yes
Institutional structure score: 100 -
regulatory function not performed
by NOC; 0 – All the regulatory
functions are performed by NOC
66 66 66 66 45 40
Independence of NOC capital and
budget process: 100 - No
governmental approval of NOC
budget required; 25 - NOC budget
is approved by central government
75 75 75 75 50 50
Performance: E&P production
growth, % (2008)
6,62 1,99 15,5 3,67
Reserves replacement rate, % 121,25 80,39 68 90

8. Road Map Towards 2030

9. Questions for discussion
• Are we on the right path?
• Are there any dimensions, critical issues which were omitted, should get
considered in more detail?
• What approaches, methods and indicators need to be revised?
• What’s next? How can we jump to formulating the detailed Action Plan and
Road Map for the Vision? Suggested formats and models.
• Are there windows for synergies?

10. Thank you!
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