REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND
FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA
Structural Transformation as a Pathway
to Food Security: Comparative Analysis
of Dynamic Trends in Central Asian
Countries
Kamiljon T. Akramov, IFPRI, Washington, DC
With contributions from Allen Park and Noah Cohen-Cline
April 8-9, 2014
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

Reforms,diversificationand growth in Central
Asian agriculture
• Since early 1990s agrarian reforms have included…
• Reduction of government involvement in decision-making
• Land reform and farm reorganization
• Formation of markets and institutions
• Reforms stimulated agricultural diversification
• Land allocation patterns changed in favor of food and high value
agriculture
• Yields in food and high value agriculture continually increasing
• During the last decade the region enjoyed strong agricultural
and economic growth
• Per capita incomes increased and poverty significantly
declined
• Nevertheless, the countries of the region still haven’t
achieved stable food and nutrition security
• Stunting rates vary from 13% (Kazakhstan) to 39% (Tajikistan)

Selectedfood security indicators (2010-2012)
Average dietary
energy supply
adequacy, %
Food
imports/Total
merchandise
exports, %
Per capita food
production
variability
Depth of the
Food Deficit
(kcal/capita/day
)
Prevalence of
undernourishm
ent, %
Armenia 121 50 13 17 <5
Azerbaijan 129 17 9.8 11 <5
Georgia 117 50 27.3 221 24.7
Kazakhstan 144 3 23.1 3 <5
Kyrgyzstan 120 25 2.7 43 6.4
Tajikistan 100 34 5.8 262 31.7
Turkmenistan 127 3 20.6 19 <5
Uzbekistan 115 7 11.2 41 6.1
Bangladesh 107 21 2.5 122 16.8
Nepal 113 50 3.3 126 18.0
Yemen 99 31 1.4 215 32.4
Source: FAO (2013); Akramov & Shredhar (2012)

REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND
FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA

REGIONAL RESEARCH CONFERENCE
AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND
FOOD SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA

Pathways to food security: from short-run to long-run
and from macro to micro
Short Run Long Run
Macro - Food price stability and
the role of grain reserves
and international trade
- Safety net policy to
protect the poor and the
budget implications of
these transfers
- Policies for creating
inclusive economic
growth including fiscal,
monetary, exchange rate
and trade policies
Micro
- Vulnerability to price
shocks
- Resilience to external
shocks
- Receipts from safety nets
- Poverty reduction and
stable access to nutritious
and healthy food
Source: Timmer (forthcoming)

Successful structural transformation is necessary
for achieving stable food security in long run
• Four elements of successful structural transformation
(Timmer 2013)
• Declining share of agriculture in GDP & employment
• Narrowing gap in labor productivity between agriculture & non-
agriculture
• Urbanization
• Demographic transition
• Structural transformation accompanies two other
transformations
• Agricultural transformation
• Dietary transformation
• What is the evidence on these transformations in Central
Asia?

Landand labor productivityin CAC
agriculture(1990-2010)– “Ruttan-a-gram”
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600
800
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500 1000 2000 4000
GAOperhectareofagriculturallandadjustedtorainfed-cropland
equivalents(USD/ha)
GAO per economically-active worker in agriculture (USD/worker)
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan

Landand labor productivityin Central Asian
agriculture(1990-2010)– “Ruttan-a-gram”

Kazakhstan: Structural transformation
Industry Services Agriculture
1990 52.3 36.4 11.3
2000 40.5 50.8 8.7
2011 40.1 54.3 5.5
1990 NA NA NA
2000 20 53.2 26.7
2011 19 54.6 26.5
Share of GDP, %
Share of Employment, %

Kyrgyzstan: Structural transformation
Industry Services Agriculture
1992 37.8 23.2 30
2000 32.1 31.3 36.6
2011 29.8 52.1 18
1992 22.5 39.3 38.1
2000 10.5 36.4 53.1
2011 21 48.3 30.7
Share of GDP, %
Share of Employment, %

Tajikistan: Structural transformation
Industry Services Agriculture
1992 46.1 26.5 27.4
2000 38.4 34.3 27.3
2011 25.3 47.8 26.9
1992 20.0 33.2 46.8
2000 6.9 28.2 64.9
2011 4 29 67
Share of GDP, %
Share of Employment, %

Uzbekistan: Structuraltransformation
Industry Services Agriculture
1990 32.5 43.7 23.8
2000 23.1 42.5 34.4
2012 32.4 48.7 18.9
1990 27.9 39.4 32.7
2000 12.7 52.8 34.4
2012 13.0 59.8 27.2
Share of GDP, %
Share of Employment, %

Structural transformationpathsin Central
Asia: Summary
Employment in agriculture
Increasing Decreasing
Income
differential
Narrowing
A) Farmer
developing
B) Lewis Path
Kyrgyzstan
Uzbekistan
Growing C) Lewis trap
Tajikistan
D) Farmer excluding
Kazakhstan

Demographictransitionand dividendin
Central Asian countries
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
1950195519601965197019751980198519901995200020052010201520202025203020352040204520502055206020652070207520802085209020952100
Share of Working-Age Population (20-59 years old)
Projected East Asia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Kyrgyzstan South Asia

Kazakhstan:Compositionof calorie intake

Kyrgyzstan:Compositionof calorieintake

Tajikistan:Compositionof calorie intake

Uzbekistan:Compositionof calorie intake

Conclusions
• Structural transformation is a sustainable way to
achieve food and nutrition security
• Uneven patterns of continuing structural
transformation in the region presents serious
problems for policymakers
• Investment in agriculture and rural infrastructure is
necessary to raise productivity in the sector
• Promoting labor-intensive manufacturing might be
needed to absorb surplus labor from the agricultural
sector

Thank you for your
attention