The study is carried Out for analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early Warning System in Pakistan

1. Analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early warning system in
Pakistan
Students:
Dawood Jan
Ismail Khan
Kiramat Ullah
Supervised By: Dr. Khurram Shehzad
Department of Civil Engineering
Gandhara Institute of Science and Technology Peshawar
Peshawar
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2.  Introduction
 Problem statement
 Objective
 Literature review
 Findings of Literature Review
 Task accomplished
 On going task
 Timeline
 References
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3.  Overflow or inundation from water body causes flood. Inundations may
caused due to:
▪ High rainfall
▪ Snow melting
▪ Failure of Dam/reservoir
▪ Tsunamis
 Pakistan faced 150 major disasters since 1947 in which most are floods
 In July 2010 Flood, about 20 million Pakistanis affected
 Inundates an area of 100,000 sq-km
 2000 casualties has been recorded.[1]
 Overall loss of US $ 10.05 Billions
 Implementation of effective flood early warning system may save lives
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4.  Poor early warning system for floods may increase in the damages of
the livelihoods and infrastructures.
 Poor flood forecasting is also the cause of disastrous affects on the
peoples at risk.
 Poor warnings may increase the post flood cost in case of urban floods.
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5.  To investigate the shortcomings of flood forecasting
 To investigate the shortcomings of communication of flood
warning
 To investigate the shortcomings of mechanism of flood
preparedness
 Suggest the set of actions to enhance the effectiveness of flood
early warning system in Pakistan
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6. Continued….
APPROACH EMPLOYED FOR ISSUE OF FLOOD FORECASTS:
Collection of hydrological and meteorological data
Transmission/Communication of data to the forecasting Centres
Analysis of data and formulation of forecasts
Dissemination of forecasts and warning to the concerned Authorities of the State.
 Police Stations
 District management group
45 PMD observatories are employed in the system, Map Attached:
Models Used By PMD for FEWS are:
Rainfall-Runoff Model  SAMO
Routing Model  SOBEK
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7. Literature Review
Accomplished task Continued….
 SAMO (Sacramento) is a Rainfall-Runoff Model which conforms important
phenomenon of hydrological cycle such as:
 Rainfall
 Evaporation
 Infiltration and
 Base flow
 It has a small computational time interval and can analysis a watershed which
has been divided into several smaller parts, each having its own parameter set
of:
 Evaporation rate
 Rainfall
 The rainfall of past 24 hours, recorded through
 telemetric stations
 Meteorological observatories
 Radar observations
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8. Literature Review Continued….
Accomplished task
 SOBEK include morphology of main rivers and characteristics of
hydraulic structure
 It is developed using:
 Physical description of the geometry of rivers,
 Continuity equation
 Balance of forces governing the flow of water in open channels.
 It can properly represent the influence of:
 Bridges
 Barrages
 Dams
 Propagation of flood waves.
 SOBEK is used to predict:
 Water level
 Discharges
 Extent of flooding along a river reach.
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10. Following are the shortcomings in the Flood forecasting:
Rainfall runoff and routing of Kabul River is not incorporated in the Flood
Early Warning System Model
The catchments of FEWS Model also do not tally with the radar’s
catchments
Tributaries which have been incorporated in the FEWS Model are not
gauged with respect to level/discharge
The resolution of this radar images is very low and radar data is not
calibrated
There are no upper-air observation stations in northern mountainous area
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11. The comparison of Actual and Forecasted Discharge at Tarbela
Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)
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12. 03/17/13 12

13. Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)
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14. Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)
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15. 03/17/13 15

16.  Literature Review
 Data Collection
 Visits and meetings
 Flood Forecasting Division Lahore
 Department of Hydrology WAPDA
 Pakistan Meteorology Department Lahore
 PMD Regional office Peshawar
 First objective which was error analysis of flood forecasting
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17.  Shortcomings in communication of FF System in
Pakistan
 Shortcomings of mechanism of flood preparedness
 Actions and corresponding resource requirements
for enhancement of effectiveness of FEWS in
Pakistan
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19. 1. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission to Pakistan,
“review of severe flooding situation” art. 4.1 page 12.
2. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission to Pakistan,
“PMD forecasting and warning services” page 04.
3. Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)
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