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Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

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May 16 in Parallel Session 3E "Earthquakes, Hurricanes, Floods & More: Dealing with Natural Disasters". Presented by A. Atiq Rahman, BCAS.

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Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones

  1. 1. Bangladesh Climate Vulnerability: Floods and Cyclones BANGLADESH CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES House 10, Road 16A, Gulshan 1, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh Phone: 8818214-7, 9851234, 9852904; Fax: 9851417 Website: www.bcas.net Dr. Atiq Rahman Executive Director: Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies (BCAS) Founding Chairman: Climate Action Network – South Asia (CANSA) Visiting Professor: Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy , Tufts University and Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA IFPRI 2020 Conference on Building Resilience for Food and Nutrition Security Date: 15-17 May, 2014 Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
  2. 2. Outline of the presentation 1. Bangladesh: Most vulnerable country 2. Extreme Events: Climate Impacts 3. Cyclones: A Case Study 4. Floods: A Case Study 5. Responses: By Communities
  3. 3. CLIMATE CHANGE CASE STUDY: BANGLADESH VULNERABILITY 1. Sea Level Rise 2. Cyclone (Intensity & Frequency) 3. Deeper Penetration of Saline Water 4. Erratic Rainfall 5. Flood (Intensity & Frequency) 6. Drought 7. River Bank Erosion 8. Health 9. Food Security 10. Water Security 11. Land slide in CHT 12. Migration
  4. 4. Relief Map of South Asia http://www.flickr.com/photos/ocean_of_stars/2785428699/sizes/o/in/photostream/ Nepal India Myanmar Pakistan
  5. 5. Bangladesh occupies a unique geographic location spanning a stretch of land between the mighty Himalayan mountain chain on the north and the open ocean on the south. It is virtually the only drainage outlet for a vast river basin complex made up of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and the Meghna and their network.
  6. 6. The Complex River Systems 1. Unique geographical location 2. Dominance of flood plain 3. Himalayan drainage eco-system Water Tower Water Sink
  7. 7. The variability of onset, breaks and duration of the summer monsoon have enormous affects on water resources, agriculture, economics, ecosystems, and human mortality throughout South Asia and Bangladesh as well. Location of Bangladesh in relation to major river basins in South Asia
  8. 8. Extreme Events: Global
  9. 9. Earth quake Tsunami Volcanic Eruption Flood & River Erosion Cyclone Drought Land slide Heat/Cold waves Sea Level Rise and Salinity Intrusion NaturalHazards ExtremeClimaticEvents Climate Change Related Tectonic Types of hazards
  10. 10. How Climate Change Increases Risk  Changes in the magnitude, coverage and frequency of climatic extremes  Changes in average climatic conditions and climate variability, affecting underlying risk factors  Generates new threats, which a region may have no or little experience in dealing with. 10
  11. 11. Climatic Extreme Events Temperature rise and heatwaves in China, Russia, Mongolia, Korea, Japan, India and South East Asia Increased and erratic rainfall induced frequent floods in Bangladesh, India, China and South East Asia Cyclones and Typhoons in South Asia, Bangladesh, India, Philippines, Japan and China 11
  12. 12. Climatic Extreme Events Number of recorded disasters doubled globally from approximately 200 to over 400 per year in the past two decades Nine out of 10 disasters are now climate related Sea level rise and salinity in South Asia, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Indonesia and SEA Droughts in South Asia including India and Bangladesh, South East Asia, China and Mongolia
  13. 13. Source: Swiss Re sigma Catastrophe database: Include floods, storms, droughts, forest fires, cold wave & frost, hail and other Change in Frequency of Hazard Event 13
  14. 14. 14
  15. 15. Global cost of weather extreme events is increasing to a great extent 15
  16. 16. Number of houses damaged per million people per year (using 21 datasets) Source: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011, UNISDR 16
  17. 17. Global Cyclones Incidence and Intensity 17
  18. 18. Extreme Events: Bangladesh
  19. 19. Hazard Class Map Ranking of multi-hazard maps used for preparing the risk-index :  Cyclone ( high risk-5, risk-3,wind risk- 1)  Flood (Severely flooded due to major river floods – 3, flash flood due to major river-2, other flood-1)  Riverbank erosion(severe erosion-2, erosion -1)  Drought (very severe drought prone areas – 2, severe drought-1)
  20. 20. SeaLevelRise
  21. 21. Cyclone
  22. 22. Saline Zone of Bangladesh
  23. 23. ErraticRainfall
  24. 24. Flood Flood 2004
  25. 25. Flood Frequency Flooded Area Return period (Years) 2 5 10 20 25 50 100 Area affected % 20 30 37 43 52 60 70 Last 30 years 5 3 2 2 Last 10 years 3 2 1 1 Inundated Area during Different Floods and Number of Occurrences in Last 30 Years For Example: A flood event with return period of 20 years has already occurred twice during the last 10 years.
  26. 26. EXISTING DROUGHT SITUATION, AND DROUGHT SITUATION IN THE YEARS 2030 & 2075 EXISTING DROUGHT DROUGHT CLASSES (KHARIF SEASON) Very Severe Drought Severe Drought Moderate Drought Less Moderate Drought Slight Drought Very Slight to Nil Severe & Moderate Moderate & Less Moderate Sunderbans Forest ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2030 ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2075
  27. 27. RiverBankErosion
  28. 28. Health Source: IPCC AR4, 2007
  29. 29. Migration Source: IPCC AR4, 2007 Internal initially External later No one wants to leave their land Global justice: Issues of migration Human rights: Issues of migration Migration already happening Strategic dimension of migration
  30. 30. Key Climate Change Stresses and Impacts on CHT • Hills support sub-ecosystems which are rich in species and biodiversity • These give livelihood supports to the hilly people • Key stresses in CHT – Temperature rise – Erratic rainfall – Extreme events -Flood and Landslide
  31. 31. Maximum Temperature
  32. 32. Cyclones
  33. 33. 1970 1991 2007 Source: DMB Situation Report,2007 • According to ICZMP coastal area includes 19 districts. Among these 16 coastal districts are considered in present study • Total area: 42,500 km2 • Total population: 31 million (BBS, 2001) History of major cyclones
  34. 34. Cyclone
  35. 35. Cyclones in Bangladesh 37
  36. 36. • Wind speed will increase around 10%for one degree Celsius increase in temperature. • Frequency and Intensity of cyclone will be more. Climate Change Impact on Cyclone
  37. 37. Recent Cyclones in the Subcontinent SIDR: Bangladesh: 2007 NARGIS: Myanmar: 2008 RASHMI: Bangladesh: 2008 AILA : Bangladesh: 2009 MOHASEN: Bangladesh: 2013
  38. 38. CYCLONE 40
  39. 39. Floods
  40. 40. Frequency of Flood 42
  41. 41. Flood Flood 2004
  42. 42. FLOOD 44
  43. 43. Causes a. Heavy rainfall b. Heavy siltation of the river bed reduces the water carrying capacity of the rivers/stream. c. Blockage in the drains leads to flooding of the area. d. Landslides blocking the flow of the stream. e. Construction of dams and reservoirs f. In areas prone to cyclone, strong winds accompanied by heavy down pour along with storm surge leads to flooding. Flood
  44. 44. Chronology of Big Floods
  45. 45. Economic Loss and Fatality of Floods
  46. 46. RADARSAT ScanSAR Wide image, 23 July 2004
  47. 47. Climate Change Impact on River Flow Sources: A study conducted by CEGIS using the hydrological model SWAT
  48. 48. Brahmaputra Annual: 710,000 Mm3 Increase: 5-10% Annual: 150,000 Mm3 Increase: 7-10% Meghna Ganges Annual: 350,000 Mm3 Increase: 8-17% Climate Change Impact on River Flow Cont..
  49. 49. • Flooding event will increase both in terms of intensity and frequency • The average flooding depth will increase about 0.3 m • The 50 year return period of flood event will be a 20 year event Climate Change Impact on Flooding
  50. 50. The Linkage Climate Change Global Warming (Anthropogenic) Temperature Rise •LST •SST Variation in Precipitation Ice Melting and Sea Level Rise Flood Drought Cyclone and Storm Surge Loss of Property + Injury + Death DISASTER
  51. 51. Food Security  IPCC estimates that, by 2050, rice production in Bangladesh could decline by 8 percent and wheat by 32 percent  Decrease production of livestock,  Increase of pest attack  Decrease production of fisheries
  52. 52. Development over time in Climate Change Impacted scenario and Adaptation Achievements Dividend in climate smart development Development($) Climate impacted development loss Climate smart adaptation benefits Time (t) years 54
  53. 53. Floods and Cyclones pictures
  54. 54. Climate Disasters in Bangladesh
  55. 55. Responses: Some Examples on Community Based Adaptation
  56. 56. Source: Char Livelihood Program of DFID Raised Plinth Height
  57. 57. HomesteadGardenon RaisedPlinth
  58. 58. Raised Plinth of Toilet
  59. 59. Livestock During Flood Raising Plinth
  60. 60. Preservation of Household Assets Over False Ceiling Storage of Food during Flood
  61. 61. Storage of Safe Drinking Water & Dry Food
  62. 62. Community based rain water harvesting Household based rain water harvesting
  63. 63. Floating Garden During Flood Locally Known as Baira Cultivation
  64. 64. Raised Tube Well
  65. 65. Store Extra Furnace
  66. 66. Protecting from Erosion Protecting Income Generating Activity
  67. 67. Water Collection in Hilly Region
  68. 68. Community People Using the Water of Re-excavated Pond
  69. 69. Pond Sand Filter
  70. 70. Household Based Rain Water Harvesting in Drought Prone Area
  71. 71. Drip Irrigation
  72. 72. Household Based Irrigation Farming
  73. 73. Crab Farming in Saline Water
  74. 74. Saline Tolerant Rice
  75. 75. Chickpeas in Drought Area
  76. 76. Seed storage system/seed bank Adjustment in Cropping pattern Hanging Nursery Making Soil heap Local Adaptation Practices in Nepal
  77. 77. A Greenhouse in Pakistan
  78. 78. Examples in Agriculture Nigeria Morocco Senegal India
  79. 79. Example in Agriculture Australia
  80. 80. Examples in Agriculture Farming in Brazil
  81. 81. Intensive Potato Farming in Canada Examples in Agriculture
  82. 82. Farming in New Zealand Examples in Agriculture
  83. 83. Farming in Philippines Examples in Agriculture

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