This document initiates coverage on Cairn India Limited stock with an "Accumulate" rating and 18-month price target of Rs 324. It believes the stock's current price of Rs 287.1 reflects negatives and offers upside of 12.7%. However, increased royalty and cess payments will impact earnings in FY2012 and FY2013. The document also notes that oil supply remains constrained while demand increases, supporting higher long-term oil prices, which would benefit Cairn India.
Cairn Energy has agreed to sell between 40-51% of its stake in Cairn India to Vedanta Resources for Rs405 per share, totaling $6.6-8.5 billion. As part of the mandatory open offer to minority shareholders, Vedanta will offer Rs355 per share, a 6.7% premium to Cairn India's closing price. Post-transaction, Cairn Energy will hold a minority 10.6-21.6% stake in Cairn India. The deal is subject to government approval and expected to close in Q1 2011.
Vedanta Resources and Sesa Goa have agreed to acquire a 51-60% stake in Cairn India from Cairn Energy for Rs405 per share, of which Rs355 per share is for acquisition and Rs50 is a non-compete fee. Vedanta and Sesa Goa will make an open offer for 20% of Cairn India shares at Rs355 per share, and Sesa Goa will make a strategic investment of 20% in Cairn India acquired from Vedanta. The deal is subject to regulatory approvals and a special shareholder resolution.
The document provides 20 stock ideas that are expected to deliver impressive returns over the next year. It gives a brief investment rationale for each stock, including descriptions of the company's business, strengths, and growth opportunities. Overall, the document recommends the 20 stocks as having strong fundamentals and potential for capital appreciation and outperformance over the coming year.
This document provides a summary of recent updates, top M&A deals of 2007, and a regular section on bailout takeovers. Recent updates include informal guidance from SEBI on an acquisition through a scheme of arrangement approved by a foreign court. The document also summarizes consent orders issued by SEBI for violations of disclosure regulations. The regular section provides an overview of the process for bailout takeovers led by public financial institutions of financially weak companies that do not require BIFR intervention.
United Spirits to operate Diageo brands in India; buyIndiaNotes.com
In a postal ballot document shared with exchanges, UNSP has given detailed contours of its proposed arrangement to manufacture, import and distribute Diageo brands in India. Following are the key highlights from the same and our interaction with the management.
Financial analysis of Ril & competitorsVikram Dahiya
Reliance Industries is India's largest private sector conglomerate, founded by Dhirubhai Ambani. It has the largest annual turnover and market capitalization of any company in India. The document analyzes Reliance's financial ratios over time, including profit margin, asset turnover, return on assets, and debt-equity, and compares them to its major competitors in the oil and gas industry such as Essar Oil, BPCL, HPCL, and IOCL. Overall, the analysis finds that Reliance has the most consistent and best financial ratios compared to its competitors.
The BSE Sensex and Nifty indices declined marginally led by losses in PSU, realty, and healthcare stocks. Hindustan Copper fell heavily after offering a large discount in a share sale. Most Asian markets opened positively but were volatile following strong gains on Wall Street on Friday. The markets are expected to open positively in India but continued uncertainty around economic reforms could keep investors cautious.
The document provides an analysis on Shree Ganesh Jewellery House Ltd by Lohia Securities Ltd. Some key points:
- SGJHL reported quarterly results in line with expectations, with strong order book and revenue growth.
- The company has expanded into Italian fusion jewellery which has been well received. It plans to expand its retail presence in India.
- Backward integration plans through a new gold refinery will help improve margins over the long run.
- SGJHL recently acquired a NBFC to enter the gold loan business and diversify its revenue sources.
Cairn Energy has agreed to sell between 40-51% of its stake in Cairn India to Vedanta Resources for Rs405 per share, totaling $6.6-8.5 billion. As part of the mandatory open offer to minority shareholders, Vedanta will offer Rs355 per share, a 6.7% premium to Cairn India's closing price. Post-transaction, Cairn Energy will hold a minority 10.6-21.6% stake in Cairn India. The deal is subject to government approval and expected to close in Q1 2011.
Vedanta Resources and Sesa Goa have agreed to acquire a 51-60% stake in Cairn India from Cairn Energy for Rs405 per share, of which Rs355 per share is for acquisition and Rs50 is a non-compete fee. Vedanta and Sesa Goa will make an open offer for 20% of Cairn India shares at Rs355 per share, and Sesa Goa will make a strategic investment of 20% in Cairn India acquired from Vedanta. The deal is subject to regulatory approvals and a special shareholder resolution.
The document provides 20 stock ideas that are expected to deliver impressive returns over the next year. It gives a brief investment rationale for each stock, including descriptions of the company's business, strengths, and growth opportunities. Overall, the document recommends the 20 stocks as having strong fundamentals and potential for capital appreciation and outperformance over the coming year.
This document provides a summary of recent updates, top M&A deals of 2007, and a regular section on bailout takeovers. Recent updates include informal guidance from SEBI on an acquisition through a scheme of arrangement approved by a foreign court. The document also summarizes consent orders issued by SEBI for violations of disclosure regulations. The regular section provides an overview of the process for bailout takeovers led by public financial institutions of financially weak companies that do not require BIFR intervention.
United Spirits to operate Diageo brands in India; buyIndiaNotes.com
In a postal ballot document shared with exchanges, UNSP has given detailed contours of its proposed arrangement to manufacture, import and distribute Diageo brands in India. Following are the key highlights from the same and our interaction with the management.
Financial analysis of Ril & competitorsVikram Dahiya
Reliance Industries is India's largest private sector conglomerate, founded by Dhirubhai Ambani. It has the largest annual turnover and market capitalization of any company in India. The document analyzes Reliance's financial ratios over time, including profit margin, asset turnover, return on assets, and debt-equity, and compares them to its major competitors in the oil and gas industry such as Essar Oil, BPCL, HPCL, and IOCL. Overall, the analysis finds that Reliance has the most consistent and best financial ratios compared to its competitors.
The BSE Sensex and Nifty indices declined marginally led by losses in PSU, realty, and healthcare stocks. Hindustan Copper fell heavily after offering a large discount in a share sale. Most Asian markets opened positively but were volatile following strong gains on Wall Street on Friday. The markets are expected to open positively in India but continued uncertainty around economic reforms could keep investors cautious.
The document provides an analysis on Shree Ganesh Jewellery House Ltd by Lohia Securities Ltd. Some key points:
- SGJHL reported quarterly results in line with expectations, with strong order book and revenue growth.
- The company has expanded into Italian fusion jewellery which has been well received. It plans to expand its retail presence in India.
- Backward integration plans through a new gold refinery will help improve margins over the long run.
- SGJHL recently acquired a NBFC to enter the gold loan business and diversify its revenue sources.
The document contains fact sheets for several Fidelity funds, including the Fidelity Equity Fund and Fidelity Tax Advantage Fund. It provides information such as fund objectives, fund managers, portfolio breakdowns by industry, and past performance. The Fidelity Equity Fund is an open-ended equity growth scheme that primarily invests in sectors like banks, software, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods. The Fidelity Tax Advantage Fund is an open-ended equity linked savings scheme that complies with Section 80C of the Income Tax Act and primarily invests in sectors like consumer goods, banks, software, and pharmaceuticals.
- Kesoram Industries is a diversified company with businesses in cement and tyre manufacturing. It has attractive valuations for both businesses that are at a substantial discount to peers and replacement costs.
- The analyst values the cement business at EV/tonne of $65, lower than replacement costs of $80/tonne but comparable to southern peers. The tyre business valuation of Rs2cr/tpd is at a 35-63% discount to peers.
- Based on this sum-of-the-parts valuation, the analyst assigns a target price of Rs437 per share, implying attractive valuations on a 12 month horizon.
The Indian stock market indices declined slightly, with the Sensex falling 0.32% and Nifty 0.40%, led by losses in IT, metal and other sectors. Foreign institutional investors were net buyers of Indian stocks, while domestic institutions were net sellers. Asian markets rose on positive economic data from China and the US. The Indian parliament approved foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail.
This document summarizes Braskem's 4Q08 earnings conference call. It discusses the significant financial crisis and volatility in exchange rates, raw materials, and resin prices during the quarter. Braskem's net revenue was R$4.1 billion in 4Q08, down 18% from 3Q08. EBITDA was R$633 million, positively impacted by a R$74 million adjustment not related to the period. A R$1.9 billion real depreciation increased liabilities pegged to the US dollar. Braskem's priorities are focusing on financial strength and liquidity, accelerating synergies from acquisitions, maintaining profitability, recovering plant utilization rates, and assessing growth opportunities during the
The document provides a market commentary and analysis from Valuehunt on January 4th, 2013. It includes the P/E ratio of the BSE Sensex index, holdings in Valuehunt's model portfolio, global market indices performance, sectoral indices in India, notable gaining and losing stocks in the Nifty, and headlines from business publications. The document also discusses two companies undergoing demergers.
The Indian stock markets gained on March 8, recovering from losses in the previous session. The BSE Sensex rose 1.19% to close at 18,440 points and the NSE Nifty gained 1.06% to end at 5,521 points. Sentiment improved after crude oil prices fell and the Congress party and DMK party reopened talks in Tamil Nadu. Global markets also rose, with the Dow gaining 1.03% and Nasdaq up 0.74%. Asian markets opened higher as well on strong US performance. Domestically, companies announced new partnerships, acquisitions, and business expansions. Bond yields were mostly unchanged.
This document summarizes key developments related to takeover regulations in India:
1. SEBI granted exemption to acquirers whose shareholding increased due to company buybacks or warrant conversions, provided there was no change in control.
2. Exemption was denied where a buyback price was deemed too high and could artificially inflate share prices.
3. Exemption was granted where share acquisitions were part of a corporate debt restructuring scheme.
4. SEBI disposed of adjudication proceedings against noticees regarding disclosure violations upon receiving a consent fee of Rs. 50,000.
1. The document provides background information on Renuka Consumer Products Limited (RCPL), a company that manufactures and sells soaps, hair color, and detergents. It discusses RCPL's historical financial performance and key assumptions about future volume, price, cost, and expense trends.
2. Akshay, the owner of RCPL, is considering how to prepare the company for increasing competition. The document reviews RCPL's sales, costs, expenses, and profitability over time to help Akshay identify areas to focus on.
3. Inputs are provided from various department heads on expected trends in volumes, prices, costs, wages, and other expenses to help Akshay develop financial
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), a government‐owned company operating in
the refining and marketing segment. The company has also diversified into the
petrochemical feedstock and exploration and production segments.
Based on a consolidated FY12 P/E multiple of 12, the fair value for the
company works out to Rs 691.
This document contains quarterly financial reports and an overview of Kotak Mahindra Bank. Some key points:
- Kotak Mahindra Bank reported a profit after tax of Rs. 416 crore for Q1 FY12, up 27% year-over-year. Total advances grew 36% to Rs. 44,699 crore while deposits increased 33% to Rs. 29,397 crore.
- The bank has a wide geographical presence in India with over 2,100 branches and offices internationally. Its key business segments are banking, car finance, life insurance, securities, mutual funds, and asset management.
- Total revenues for Q1 FY12 were Rs. 2,
Valuation of RIL has been done by anlaysing past 5-Years performance and projecting in future for 3-Years its - Revenues, Net Income, EBIT, EBITDA, EPS, DPS, Share price.Equity Value / Enterprise Value has been estimated for RIL
Bajaj Hindusthan reported lower-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2010, with revenue increasing 82% year-over-year but profit declining. Higher raw material costs and increased sales of levy sugar at a loss impacted margins. While volume increased for both sugar and distillery, realization declined for distillery. The outlook remains challenging due to expected higher sugar production weighing on prices. The company maintained a neutral rating given fair valuation.
Cairn India reported a quarterly net profit of Rs281cr for 1QFY2011, an increase of 519.3% over the previous year. Revenue grew 310.1% to Rs841cr due to higher production and realisations from the Mangala oil fields. Operating margins expanded significantly to 77% from 64.5% last year due to lower production costs. However, net profit was lower than estimates due to higher financing costs and lower other income. While production and revenues grew strongly year-over-year, costs were also higher than expected, leading to profits below analyst forecasts.
This document discusses strategies for controlling escalating medical insurance costs through greater employer control and participation in alternative insurance models like captives. It outlines how traditional insurance results in annual double-digit cost increases and minimal transparency or control. A captive insurance program places employers in a group that shares risks and returns, gaining stability, transparency and the ability to retain underwriting profits and investment returns to offset premiums. The document provides an overview of captive definitions, design considerations, and underwriting guidelines to establish a captive program.
1) Sun TV promoter Kalanithi Maran will buy a 37.75% stake in SpiceJet from its existing promoters and investors at a 16.7% discount to the current market price.
2) Maran's entry as the single largest shareholder is seen as positive for SpiceJet as it will provide management stability and help the airline access capital to fund expansion plans.
3) The analyst maintains an "Accumulate" rating for SpiceJet with a target price of Rs. 65, valuing the stock at 9 times estimated FY2012 earnings per share of Rs. 7.2.
Presentation – increase on Goldfarb’s stakePDG Realty
PDG Realty increases its stake in Goldfarb to 80% and acquires an option to purchase the remaining 20%, reaching full ownership. Key points of the deal include PDG Realty exercising an option to acquire an additional 5% of Goldfarb for $100 million. PDG Realty also entered an agreement with Goldfarb shareholders for annual options to purchase the remaining shares in 5% increments each year from 2009 onward. This positions PDG Realty as a leader in the low-income real estate segment in Brazil, with over 70% of its land bank and 42,000 units concentrated in properties valued under $250,000.
Page Industries Limited is an India-based manufacturer of garments. It holds the license to manufacture and distribute JOCKEY branded innerwear and leisurewear in India and surrounding countries. According to a recent analysis, Page Industries has experienced strong sales growth and increasing profitability in recent years. However, its stock valuation ratios are high relative to competitors in the apparel manufacturing industry.
Este documento apresenta uma palestra sobre Hadoop para programadores Java. A palestra inclui uma introdução à plataforma Hadoop, as APIs core do Hadoop, como montar um ambiente Hadoop localmente e um estudo de caso sobre processamento de dados com Hadoop. A palestra também discute limitações da plataforma Hadoop e abstrações para lidar com essas limitações.
This quarterly report provides data and analysis on tourism trends for the Sunshine Coast region of Australia. It finds that while consumer confidence and domestic travel in Australia are rebounding, travel to the Sunshine Coast has softened in recent years. In particular, the report notes a decline in overnight visitors from Sydney and preference from core family market segments. Congestion on the main highway to the region is identified as a barrier deterring some potential visitors. Inbound travel is also down but the Sunshine Coast has gained market share for certain international markets like the UK. Overall the report aims to give stakeholders a concise update on the performance of the tourism industry in the Sunshine Coast.
The document contains fact sheets for several Fidelity funds, including the Fidelity Equity Fund and Fidelity Tax Advantage Fund. It provides information such as fund objectives, fund managers, portfolio breakdowns by industry, and past performance. The Fidelity Equity Fund is an open-ended equity growth scheme that primarily invests in sectors like banks, software, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods. The Fidelity Tax Advantage Fund is an open-ended equity linked savings scheme that complies with Section 80C of the Income Tax Act and primarily invests in sectors like consumer goods, banks, software, and pharmaceuticals.
- Kesoram Industries is a diversified company with businesses in cement and tyre manufacturing. It has attractive valuations for both businesses that are at a substantial discount to peers and replacement costs.
- The analyst values the cement business at EV/tonne of $65, lower than replacement costs of $80/tonne but comparable to southern peers. The tyre business valuation of Rs2cr/tpd is at a 35-63% discount to peers.
- Based on this sum-of-the-parts valuation, the analyst assigns a target price of Rs437 per share, implying attractive valuations on a 12 month horizon.
The Indian stock market indices declined slightly, with the Sensex falling 0.32% and Nifty 0.40%, led by losses in IT, metal and other sectors. Foreign institutional investors were net buyers of Indian stocks, while domestic institutions were net sellers. Asian markets rose on positive economic data from China and the US. The Indian parliament approved foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail.
This document summarizes Braskem's 4Q08 earnings conference call. It discusses the significant financial crisis and volatility in exchange rates, raw materials, and resin prices during the quarter. Braskem's net revenue was R$4.1 billion in 4Q08, down 18% from 3Q08. EBITDA was R$633 million, positively impacted by a R$74 million adjustment not related to the period. A R$1.9 billion real depreciation increased liabilities pegged to the US dollar. Braskem's priorities are focusing on financial strength and liquidity, accelerating synergies from acquisitions, maintaining profitability, recovering plant utilization rates, and assessing growth opportunities during the
The document provides a market commentary and analysis from Valuehunt on January 4th, 2013. It includes the P/E ratio of the BSE Sensex index, holdings in Valuehunt's model portfolio, global market indices performance, sectoral indices in India, notable gaining and losing stocks in the Nifty, and headlines from business publications. The document also discusses two companies undergoing demergers.
The Indian stock markets gained on March 8, recovering from losses in the previous session. The BSE Sensex rose 1.19% to close at 18,440 points and the NSE Nifty gained 1.06% to end at 5,521 points. Sentiment improved after crude oil prices fell and the Congress party and DMK party reopened talks in Tamil Nadu. Global markets also rose, with the Dow gaining 1.03% and Nasdaq up 0.74%. Asian markets opened higher as well on strong US performance. Domestically, companies announced new partnerships, acquisitions, and business expansions. Bond yields were mostly unchanged.
This document summarizes key developments related to takeover regulations in India:
1. SEBI granted exemption to acquirers whose shareholding increased due to company buybacks or warrant conversions, provided there was no change in control.
2. Exemption was denied where a buyback price was deemed too high and could artificially inflate share prices.
3. Exemption was granted where share acquisitions were part of a corporate debt restructuring scheme.
4. SEBI disposed of adjudication proceedings against noticees regarding disclosure violations upon receiving a consent fee of Rs. 50,000.
1. The document provides background information on Renuka Consumer Products Limited (RCPL), a company that manufactures and sells soaps, hair color, and detergents. It discusses RCPL's historical financial performance and key assumptions about future volume, price, cost, and expense trends.
2. Akshay, the owner of RCPL, is considering how to prepare the company for increasing competition. The document reviews RCPL's sales, costs, expenses, and profitability over time to help Akshay identify areas to focus on.
3. Inputs are provided from various department heads on expected trends in volumes, prices, costs, wages, and other expenses to help Akshay develop financial
Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), a government‐owned company operating in
the refining and marketing segment. The company has also diversified into the
petrochemical feedstock and exploration and production segments.
Based on a consolidated FY12 P/E multiple of 12, the fair value for the
company works out to Rs 691.
This document contains quarterly financial reports and an overview of Kotak Mahindra Bank. Some key points:
- Kotak Mahindra Bank reported a profit after tax of Rs. 416 crore for Q1 FY12, up 27% year-over-year. Total advances grew 36% to Rs. 44,699 crore while deposits increased 33% to Rs. 29,397 crore.
- The bank has a wide geographical presence in India with over 2,100 branches and offices internationally. Its key business segments are banking, car finance, life insurance, securities, mutual funds, and asset management.
- Total revenues for Q1 FY12 were Rs. 2,
Valuation of RIL has been done by anlaysing past 5-Years performance and projecting in future for 3-Years its - Revenues, Net Income, EBIT, EBITDA, EPS, DPS, Share price.Equity Value / Enterprise Value has been estimated for RIL
Bajaj Hindusthan reported lower-than-expected results for the third quarter of 2010, with revenue increasing 82% year-over-year but profit declining. Higher raw material costs and increased sales of levy sugar at a loss impacted margins. While volume increased for both sugar and distillery, realization declined for distillery. The outlook remains challenging due to expected higher sugar production weighing on prices. The company maintained a neutral rating given fair valuation.
Cairn India reported a quarterly net profit of Rs281cr for 1QFY2011, an increase of 519.3% over the previous year. Revenue grew 310.1% to Rs841cr due to higher production and realisations from the Mangala oil fields. Operating margins expanded significantly to 77% from 64.5% last year due to lower production costs. However, net profit was lower than estimates due to higher financing costs and lower other income. While production and revenues grew strongly year-over-year, costs were also higher than expected, leading to profits below analyst forecasts.
This document discusses strategies for controlling escalating medical insurance costs through greater employer control and participation in alternative insurance models like captives. It outlines how traditional insurance results in annual double-digit cost increases and minimal transparency or control. A captive insurance program places employers in a group that shares risks and returns, gaining stability, transparency and the ability to retain underwriting profits and investment returns to offset premiums. The document provides an overview of captive definitions, design considerations, and underwriting guidelines to establish a captive program.
1) Sun TV promoter Kalanithi Maran will buy a 37.75% stake in SpiceJet from its existing promoters and investors at a 16.7% discount to the current market price.
2) Maran's entry as the single largest shareholder is seen as positive for SpiceJet as it will provide management stability and help the airline access capital to fund expansion plans.
3) The analyst maintains an "Accumulate" rating for SpiceJet with a target price of Rs. 65, valuing the stock at 9 times estimated FY2012 earnings per share of Rs. 7.2.
Presentation – increase on Goldfarb’s stakePDG Realty
PDG Realty increases its stake in Goldfarb to 80% and acquires an option to purchase the remaining 20%, reaching full ownership. Key points of the deal include PDG Realty exercising an option to acquire an additional 5% of Goldfarb for $100 million. PDG Realty also entered an agreement with Goldfarb shareholders for annual options to purchase the remaining shares in 5% increments each year from 2009 onward. This positions PDG Realty as a leader in the low-income real estate segment in Brazil, with over 70% of its land bank and 42,000 units concentrated in properties valued under $250,000.
Page Industries Limited is an India-based manufacturer of garments. It holds the license to manufacture and distribute JOCKEY branded innerwear and leisurewear in India and surrounding countries. According to a recent analysis, Page Industries has experienced strong sales growth and increasing profitability in recent years. However, its stock valuation ratios are high relative to competitors in the apparel manufacturing industry.
Este documento apresenta uma palestra sobre Hadoop para programadores Java. A palestra inclui uma introdução à plataforma Hadoop, as APIs core do Hadoop, como montar um ambiente Hadoop localmente e um estudo de caso sobre processamento de dados com Hadoop. A palestra também discute limitações da plataforma Hadoop e abstrações para lidar com essas limitações.
This quarterly report provides data and analysis on tourism trends for the Sunshine Coast region of Australia. It finds that while consumer confidence and domestic travel in Australia are rebounding, travel to the Sunshine Coast has softened in recent years. In particular, the report notes a decline in overnight visitors from Sydney and preference from core family market segments. Congestion on the main highway to the region is identified as a barrier deterring some potential visitors. Inbound travel is also down but the Sunshine Coast has gained market share for certain international markets like the UK. Overall the report aims to give stakeholders a concise update on the performance of the tourism industry in the Sunshine Coast.
O documento apresenta Hadoop, uma plataforma de armazenamento e processamento de grandes volumes de dados. Apresenta as motivações para Hadoop, como a necessidade de analisar dados não estruturados e em grande volume. Resume a história do Hadoop, seu ecossistema e conceitos-chave como MapReduce. Demonstra um exemplo simples de job MapReduce.
1. Global volumes of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) continued to grow significantly in March 2012 and are expected to grow 26% in fiscal year 2013 to around 398,000 units due to strong demand for recently launched models.
2. JLR has increased production capacity at some plants to 410,000 units by adding a third shift and has a strong pipeline of new product launches over the next 5 years.
3. The analyst values Tata Motors using a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach and sets a revised target price of Rs. 338 per share based on expected growth in JLR volumes and new product launches.
Vivimed Labs is initiating coverage as a buy recommendation with a target price of Rs. 468 per share. At the current market price of Rs. 343, the stock is trading at earnings multiples of 6.0-5.5x for FY13-FY14, representing upside of 36% over 24 months. Vivimed has a diversified portfolio of specialty chemicals and pharmaceuticals and will benefit from expected growth in these industries. Recent acquisitions will also help fuel revenue growth through expanded market reach and synergies. However, mounting debt remains a risk.
Cairn India reported a 12.5% rise in net profit for the third quarter driven by higher crude oil realizations and forex gains. Production is expected to increase with the ramp-up of new fields. While the stock has outperformed recently, the company is forecast to benefit from its low-cost assets as oil prices remain favorable. Analysts maintain a buy rating and price target of Rs. 415 based on Cairn's ability to increase production and realize higher prices in the current macroeconomic environment.
Este documento enfatiza la importancia de cerrar capítulos en la vida y seguir adelante. Aconseja dejar ir momentos del pasado como trabajos terminados, relaciones concluidas o amistades acabadas en lugar de aferrarse a ellos con resentimiento o preguntándose por qué sucedieron. Recomienda soltar el pasado, pasar la página y vivir el presente en lugar de esperar que personas u oportunidades del pasado regresen.
The quarterly report provides an overview of tourism trends for the Sunshine Coast region of Australia. Consumer confidence and outbound travel from Australia have stabilized after declines due to the global economic slowdown. Inbound travel to the region has also softened but the Sunshine Coast has gained market share from key countries. Domestic overnight visits to the region have grown strongly but share has declined recently. Tourism contributes significantly to the Sunshine Coast economy, generating $1.5 billion and supporting over 40,000 jobs.
- OCL India Ltd is an Indian cement manufacturer that is well positioned to benefit from increased infrastructure development in East India under the new government.
- OCL recently expanded its cement grinding capacity to 6.7 MTPA, which is expected to drive revenue growth of 26% annually through FY16 as utilization increases.
- The company has operating efficiencies from a captive power plant, limestone reserves, and coal linkages that have enabled margins comparable to industry leaders. The analyst initiates coverage with a buy recommendation and target price implying 91% upside.
At the CMP of Rs 33, the stock is trading at an Adj P/BV of 1.3x and 1.1x for FY15E and FY16E, respectively. With the new government stepping-up reforms and making efforts to remove the bottlenecks in the economy, we expect the economic growth to pick up going forward. Consequently, we expect the strong growth momentum seen in SIB over past few years to continue. We expect advances and deposits to grow at a CAGR of ~19% each over the forecasted period of FY14-16E.
With business further expected to grow at CAGR of 19.5% over FY14-16E; NIMs remaining stable at ~3.0% and cost-to-income ratio improving to ~45% (currently ~50%), we expect a robust PAT growth of 22.6% CAGR over FY14-16E to Rs 763 crore.
Asset quality of SIB has improved in FY14 with GNPA and Net NPA standing at 1.2% and 0.8% in FY14 against 1.4% and 0.8% in FY13, respectively (which compares favourably with peers).
On the capital adequacy front, SIB is comfortably placed to support the future business needs of the bank over the period FY14-16E. The management has stated that it does not require any Tier-I capital funding during the current year. However, it plans to raise Tier-II capital of Rs 200 crore in FY15 to fund future growth.
Wockhardt posted a net loss of Rs 191.6 crore for Q4FY12 due to exceptional items such as derivative liabilities and goodwill impairment. Excluding exceptional items, net profit grew 57% YoY to Rs 261.6 crore. Net sales grew 32.2% YoY to Rs 1,241.4 crore. The brokerage expects the company to benefit from its product portfolio and focus on high margin products, projecting a revenue CAGR of 14.8% over FY12-FY14. However, it has lowered earnings estimates for FY13-FY14 to factor in higher taxes and the potential delay of a nutrition business sale. The stock currently trades at attractive valu
The Supreme Court delivered its final verdict in the legal dispute between Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and Reliance Natural Resources Limited (RNRL) over natural gas pricing and supply. The court ruled 2-1 in favor of RIL, finding that the family memorandum of understanding that RNRL relied on was not binding and that government regulations take precedence. The court ordered RIL and RNRL to renegotiate their gas supply agreement in line with government rules within six weeks. This verdict removes the uncertainty around the dispute and is viewed positively for RIL, while being negative for RNRL. Analysts maintain a buy rating on RIL with a target price of Rs. 1,260 per share.
Areva T&D India reported significantly lower revenues and profits for the first quarter of 2010 compared to the previous year. Revenue declined 10.7% and net profit declined 93.2% due to slower order execution, margin pressure from increased competition, higher costs, and mark-to-market losses. The order backlog grew 17.5% but the outlook remains uncertain due to the pending acquisition of Areva T&D by Alstom-Schneider. The document provides details on financial performance and evaluates the company's valuation.
Elecon Engineering is a leading provider of material handling equipment and gear solutions in India. It has a 26% market share in the domestic gear market, making it the leader. The company is well positioned to benefit from an estimated Rs32,500 crore of opportunities in the material handling equipment industry over the next few years, driven by growth in core sectors like power, steel, and coal. Elecon's order book and revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 40% and 13.5%, respectively, during FY2010-12, supported by a recovery in industrial activity and capital expenditures. The company's strong position in the stable gear market also helps support its profitability.
Elecon Engineering is a leading provider of material handling equipment and gear solutions in India. The company is well positioned to benefit from increasing industrial capital expenditures in sectors like power and steel. The analyst estimates Elecon will grow sales at a CAGR of 13.5% and adjusted profits at 37% over fiscal years 2010-2012 due to improving financials and recovery in the material handling equipment industry. The report initiates coverage on Elecon with a buy recommendation and target price of Rs102 based on attractive valuations and growth opportunities.
Motherson Sumi Systems (MSSL) reported a 32% year-over-year increase in net sales to Rs. 1,905 crores for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, below expectations. Operating margins increased 370 basis points year-over-year to 9.8% but fell short of expectations and declined sequentially. Net profit for the quarter came in below expectations at Rs. 60 crores due to lower-than-expected revenue growth and margins. Management indicated input costs and currency impacts would be gradually passed on to customers, and the analyst maintains an 'Accumulate' rating while lowering the target price.
- Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL) has acquired the remaining 51% stake in Godrej Sara Lee (GSL) for Rs1,050cr, valuing GSL at Rs2,065cr.
- The acquisition makes GCPL the second largest household insecticide player in Asia (outside Japan) and is expected to help GCPL become one of the strongest performers in the home and personal care space in India.
- The acquisition is priced attractively at 15x FY2010 earnings and 2.1x price-to-sales for GSL and is estimated to be earnings per share accretive for GCPL by 8-10%, despite being funded fully by equity dilution.
Graphite india - Initiating Coverage 28.04.10Angel Broking
Graphite India is the world's fifth largest manufacturer of graphite electrodes, a key input for electric arc furnace (EAF) steel production. The graphite electrode industry is expected to rebound with EAF steel production growing at a 10.8% CAGR from 2009-2011 as production shut down during the recession resumes. Graphite India is well positioned to benefit from this growth with its capacity expansion plans. The company also enjoys a strong labor cost advantage versus global peers which should support margin expansion going forward as capacity additions taper off and a greater portion of the cost benefit is retained. The analyst initiates coverage with a buy rating and 12-month target price of Rs117 per share.
Cairn India has revised upwards its production targets, in-place reserves, and discovered reserves for its Rajasthan oil block. It has increased its discovered resource base in the Rajasthan basin to 4.0 billion barrels of oil equivalent and raised its potential resource base to 6.5 billion barrels. Cairn India has also raised its vision for plateau production rate from the Rajasthan block to 240,000 barrels per day, up from 175,000 barrels per day previously. These increases have led the analyst to revise upwards its fair value estimate for Cairn India shares to Rs315 per share.
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010Angel Broking
The document discusses Indraprastha Gas (IGL), an Indian city gas distribution company. It makes the following key points:
1) IGL recently increased CNG prices by Rs.5.6/kg, more than offsetting expected margin declines from higher gas costs. This reduces risks to IGL's margins.
2) With gas prices frozen until 2014, IGL may not need major price hikes, further reducing margin risks.
3) Strong volume growth from new CNG vehicles and domestic PNG connections will drive earnings growth of 17.5% annually for IGL over 2010-2012.
4) Lower risks and higher earnings lead the analyst to increase their target price for
Indraprastha Gas Ltd.- Company Update-June 22, 2010Angel Broking
The document discusses an update on Indraprastha Gas (IGL). Key points include:
1) IGL recently increased CNG prices in Delhi by Rs.5.6/kg, more than offsetting expected margin declines from higher gas costs.
2) This eliminates concerns around IGL's ability to pass on higher costs without regulatory issues.
3) Strong volume growth from new CNG vehicles and domestic PNG, coupled with stable margins, is expected to drive 17.5% profit growth for IGL over the next few years.
4) The analyst upgrades IGL to "Buy" with a revised target price of Rs. 301 due to lower risks and higher earnings estimates.
SpiceJet is initiating coverage with a buy recommendation and a target price of Rs84, implying 33% upside. SpiceJet is one of the fastest growing airlines in India with a 12% market share. Passenger traffic is expected to grow at 13% annually over the next few years, outpacing low capacity additions of 5-8% annually. This will result in higher load factors and profitability for airlines like SpiceJet. SpiceJet increased its market share from 8% to 12% in the past year and is expected to increase its passenger volume by 44% in the current year due to its low cost model and expansion plans.
Reliance Industries reported lower-than-expected quarterly results, with profits impacted by lower-than-expected refining margins. Revenue grew 120.7% year-over-year primarily due to higher refining revenues, but margins were lower than estimates. While volume growth was strong, profitability was hurt by refining margins of $7.5/bbl compared to an estimated $8.5/bbl. The analyst maintains a buy rating due to expectations for margin improvement and inorganic growth opportunities.
Aurobindo Pharma has transformed from a low-margin API player to a high-margin formulation player. The company is expected to see net sales and recurring profits grow at a CAGR of 15.6% and 29.1% through FY2012 due to supply agreements with Pfizer and AstraZeneca, growth in the US market, and their ARV formulation business. The report initiates coverage on Aurobindo Pharma with a buy recommendation and a target price of Rs. 1,330, representing growth potential of 18.7%
State Bank of India reported a 25.1% year-over-year increase in net profit for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011, exceeding analyst estimates. Net interest income grew 45.4% year-over-year due to a rise in low-cost deposits and narrowing of net interest margin. Loan growth was 20.4% year-over-year while deposit growth was 6.8% year-over-year. Non-performing assets rose slightly during the quarter but asset quality remained reasonable with net NPA ratio of 1.7%. The analyst maintains an "Accumulate" rating on the stock.
1) Anant Raj Industries reported a 203.4% quarter-over-quarter growth in net sales to Rs. 103 crore for the first quarter of FY2011, though sales were down 1.5% from the prior year. However, margins declined due to a change in accounting practices.
2) The company launched two residential projects during the quarter and has already sold all units in one project and 50% of units in the other.
3) Anant Raj maintains a strong balance sheet with a net cash position and fully paid land banks, providing flexibility for future growth.
Sterlite Industries reported lower than expected results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2011. Net revenue grew 30.6% year-over-year to Rs5,925 crore, below Angel Research estimates, due to lower production from planned maintenance shutdowns and resource issues. EBITDA grew 48.3% to Rs1,452 crore but margins expanded less than expected. Net profit increased 49.9% to Rs1,008 crore, also below estimates. Segment performance was mixed, with copper improving but aluminum declining due to cost pressures. The results were impacted by higher costs and lower production than anticipated.
Sterlite Industries reported net revenue of Rs7,111cr for 4QFY2010, in line with estimates. Net profit was also in line with estimates at Rs1,381cr. Revenue growth was driven by higher metal prices, strong zinc and lead business performance, and higher by-product prices. Sterlite is well positioned to capitalize on strong metal demand through expansion plans and cost reductions. The company also announced a 1:1 bonus issue and stock split.
Gujarat Gas reported a 2.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in net operating income to Rs419 crore for 2QCY2010, with net profit increasing 21.5% year-over-year to Rs58 crore. EBITDA margin declined 270 basis points sequentially to 22.3% due to a decrease in the gross gas spread. Average gas sales volumes grew 2.1% quarter-on-quarter and 19.3% year-over-year. While top-line growth met expectations, bottom-line was marginally below estimates due to lower-than-expected EBITDA. Supply constraints are receding with improving domestic gas availability and subdued RLNG prices, supporting future volume
KPR Mill reported 15.4% revenue growth in 9mFY12 but profitability was impacted by Tamil Nadu's power shortage. While KPR's exports grew strongly, output was reduced in Q3FY12 due to lower utilization from power cuts. Cotton prices stabilized after an initial sharp fall resulted in a one-time inventory write-down for KPR. The company's FY13 outlook is positive as the full benefits of its expanded yarn capacity will be realized and power availability is expected to improve in the second half of the year. However, near-term estimates have been reduced due to the expected impact of continuing power issues in the first quarter of FY13.
Burger King represents a unique opportunity to own equity of the second largest QSR branded franchise in the world's fastest going market India.
Learn how Burger King is ramping up to emerge as the fastest-growing food chain. given its fiery pace, global brand, and strong execution we believe that it presents an opportunity for multi-bagger value creation.
In this webinar, we explore how any business should be analyzed to evaluate its true value. And this is the exact process taught in the Mastercourse in Equity Research and Valuation https://wa.me/message/6ALEXA634QLGK1
For the webinar replay https://youtu.be/_WX7t5fRdrM
The Mastercourse is conducted bu Vinit Bolinjkar who has 29 years of experience investing and trading
This presentation was done by Yash Bhansali & Varun Bisen both students of the School of Market Studies' Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation. It is a realtime demonstration of the skills that you will acquire once you finish the course.
The Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation has enabled both Yash and Varun to prepare and present a financial model on Varun Beverages Ltd with forecasting and calculation of intrinsic value using DCF Valuation methodology absolutely independently.
Normally a research analyst takes two years to "officially" be termed as a sector specialist. However, under the able guidance of Vinit Bolinjkar who has 28 years of market experience your process of learning the ropes of equity research, financial modeling, and forecasting goes much faster.
In fact, he virtually guarantees that after 4 months of the internship (following the two months of online learning) you will be able t easily forecast 80% of the market and be as good as any analyst on Dalal Street with two years of work experience.
This presentation was done by Stuti Dang & Kirti Gumber both students of the School of Market Studies' Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation.
The Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation has enabled both Stuti and Kirti to prepare and present a financial model on Voltas Ltd with forecasting and calculation of intrinsic value using DCF Valuation methodology absolutely independently.
Normally a research analyst takes two years to "officially" be termed as a sector specialist. However, under the able guidance of Vinit Bolinjkar who has 28 years of market experience your process of learning the ropes of equity research, financial modeling, and forecasting goes much faster.
In fact, he virtually guarantees that after 4 months of the internship (following the two months of online learning) you will be able t easily forecast 80% of the market and be as good as any analyst on Dalal Street with two years of work experience.
So what are you waiting for? JOIN NOW https://wa.me/919730836363
This is the outcome of what a student learns in the Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation that is organized by the School of Market Studies.
After two months of intense training, we have a 4-month internship. During the first month of internship Varsha Bezzam, a student made this absolutely detailed presentation on HUL.
This include
leadership analysis,
industry study
MOATS for HUL
Business outlook & strategy
Financial modeling
Equity Valuation using price earning method and DCF valuation
Peer comparison
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#CoronaVirus update:
#AskVinit
The only solution for preventing its spread is ISOLATION.
Work from home should be encouraged.
All public places of congregation for social & cultural activities must be stopped
Infected areas must be locked down
Government & corporate leaders should act decisively to promote best practices for the same
For every death, there are potential 800 people infected.
The fatality is higher than that of H1N1, SARS & MERS
We should adopt the Taiwan model which despite being so close to China is not impacted.
The concept of economic moats was first made popular by Warren Buffett. In actuality, a moat is a water body around a wonderful castle that helps prevent being raided by enemies. The attractiveness of the castle would have lured enemies to attack. In a similar way, the superior returns of a business venture would invariably attract competition.
To protect your business you would have to build significant competitive advantages that would help secure it.
Branding
Superior product offering
Great distribution
Size of operation
Scalability
Management quality
Technology adoption
IPR / patents / copyrights
are some of the factors which help to build a moat. And several of these together help to broaden and deepen the moat.
Businesses without moats are waiting to get raided. And we must watch the economic moats with a hawks eye to ensure that they are not being eroded. Especially in today’s times, when disruptive forces erode competitive advantages, we must ensure that it is enduring.
However, it is not easy to understand whether the moat is eroding or not. Cause the effect of no moat or an eroding moat will show up much later in the deteriorating financial performance of the business. Hence the time to engage in a “moat checkup and review” is when the business is at its peak.
Quick & easy system for finding stocks with multibagger potential
If you were asked to find a multibagger from the listed universe of stocks you would obviously get bogged down. The sheer effort of having to go through each of the 5000 stocks and deciding on its multibagger potential would be, to put it mildly, overwhelming! And I guarantee that you would reach nowhere!
Yet there has to be a better way of doing this. So why not invert the whole process and de-select stocks that that do meet the requirements of being investment grade. What you are left with is purely stocks that you would invest in. Next, we apply the proprietary tools to understand whether a stock can be a multibagger. At India Investors Club we refer to this process as the Criteria of Elimination in Stock Picking
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.
In comparison to the less than ordinary and unimaginative budgetary proposals of yester years, Modi’s maiden budget comes as a welcome change from the norm. The proposals and reforms suggested in the Union Budget 2014-15 are ground breaking, specific with a good measure of thought & common sense and vastly catered for holistic growth of the economy.
The challenging circumstances of a slowing economy, soaring energy prices, inflation, fiscal and current account deficits do not provide adequate leeway to maneuver and hit the path of high growth. Yet the Budget provides a comprehensive plan and directional footprint towards overcoming these hurdles to sustainable growth of 7-8% over the next few years along with providing macro economic stability, lowered inflation, realistic fiscal health targeting and a manageable current account deficit.
The Finance Minister while presenting the budget takes cognizance of the fact that decisive action to fuel growth without populism is the need of the hour. And that resources for developmental expenditure cannot be raised at the cost of burdening the future generations with the legacy of debt. He goes on to emphasize the need to mobilize resources through both tax and non-tax revenues to feed the aspirational developmental expenditure.
In order to achieve this objective the Modi Government has taken head on the various issues plaguing the Indian economy and come out with imaginative and yet very practical and implementable reforms and measures.
Most commodities futures have been in a narrow trading range for quite a while now. However with volatility returning many have started to show signs of movement In this blog post we look at the commodities which hold promise. Corn, copper and soyabean are clear shorts while silver is on the verge of a break down. Gold though in a sideways consolidation could be a short term sell. Meanwhile crude oil and natural gas are hitting strong overhead resistances and could over the next few days put in some pullback. Platinum is still undecisive, sugar is a stock to watch for a buying opportunity and palladium is one lone metal which seems headed higher.
The budget document discusses the Union Budget 2013-14 which aims to return the Indian economy to high growth while maintaining fiscal discipline. Key points include containing the fiscal deficit to 5.2% of GDP for the current year and pegging it at 4.8% for 2013-14. The FM has taken a balanced approach through various initiatives to promote manufacturing, infrastructure, and capital markets while also introducing innovative revenue measures and keeping expenditure in check. However, uncertainty around GAAR could negatively impact foreign investment inflows which are important to bridge the current account deficit.
The Indian Pharmaceutical sector has been on a roll ever since the global economy picked itself up post the 2007 mayhem. Given the strong fundamentals of the Indian Pharmaceutical industry and the global opportunity due to the patent cliff in the western world, listed pharmaceutical stocks have responded well and rallied substantially. While the international opportunities have been good for the bottom line, pharmaceutical stocks with a larger or significant share of the domestic pharma market have come in for a rude shock as the implementation of the new pricing policy outline of the NPPA can sharply erode profitability. As the policy elements are still not clear, it would be premature to judge how individual companies would be affected.
With a view to having a mid journey outlook on expected price performance of pharmaceutical stocks, we decided to conduct a study of the major pharmaceutical stocks using technical analysis and analyse which stocks offer the best opportunity both from a long and short point of view. The exhaustive analysis was done on 29 of the major stocks, the details of which one can obtained from the slideshow.
The analysis was done using weekly chart data to get a more longer term picture and some of the results we found were quite contrary to general market expectation; yet others were quite revealing of exciting investment opportunities. We could have easily summed up our analysis and provided an instant listing of our analysis and recommendations for the benefit of our blog readers, but we thought it more appropriate that the reader “visualize” our analysis as “one picture is worth more than a thousand words.”
Technical analysis is a great science for stock price forecasting, but the overall investment decision can be more solid if backed by hard core fundamental study. In part 2 of the Indian Pharmaceutical Outlook, we would be providing extremely high quality fundamental evaluation on the fortunes of these very 29 stocks so that our faithful blog readers can make investment decisions based on comprehensive analysis.
As with all the content on this blog, the report will be provided FREE. However in order to make a point of the exclusivity of the content, we request blog readers to send us an email so that we could deliver it directly in your email inbox. This we request so that we could obtain your feedback on the same report so that we can improve on the content. We would also like to solicit your opinion on the type of content that readers find interesting so that future blog posts could be based more on reader interest rather than just what we think you should read.
Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd. is initiating coverage with a buy recommendation and a target price of Rs. 255. The company is expected to see revenues and earnings grow at a CAGR of 27.1% and 23.7% through FY2014 due to increased lignite volumes, price hikes, and growth in its bauxite business. While its power business has faced issues, the analysts expect a turnaround by FY2014. At the current market price of Rs. 187, the stock is trading at attractive valuations and expected to provide upside of around 36% over 18 months.
Divi's Laboratories Ltd is initiated as a "BUY" recommendation with a target price of Rs. 1287, representing a potential upside of 35%. Divi's is a leading player in the generic APIs and CRAMS spaces and will benefit from increased outsourcing and patent expiries. The company has established relationships with top innovators and a strong pipeline of products. Revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 25.2% through FY2014 driven by mature API products and new product approvals. Margins will be maintained through efficient capacity expansion and control of spare capacity. At the target price, Divi's would trade at a justified premium to peers given its high margins, growth, cash
We initiate coverage on Petronet LNG Limited(Petronet) as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs 151 (target PE of 11x
FY2013) over a period of 15-18 months. At CMP of Rs 132.1, the stock is trading at 13.6x and 9.6x its estimated earnings
for FY2012E & FY2013E representing a potential upside of ~13.6%. Petronet LNG is majorly engaged in the business of
LNG procurement, transportation and regasification. Burgeoning natural gas demand supply mismatch in the country
makes it inevitable that the additional demand would be met by imported LNG. Petronet LNG, with its Kochi terminal set
to commission in Q4FY12 and expansion at its Dahej terminal, is all set to benefit from the current scenario. In addition,
diversification plans into the power segment add further value to the company. We expect revenue & earnings growth of
26.1% & 36.5% CAGR respectively over the next three years.
Favourable natural gas demand and supply to augur well for PLNG
On the back of growing consumption, demand for natural gas is expected to
grow at a faster rate of 16.3% (5 year CAGR) to 381 mmscmd compared to
supply which is expected to grow at a 5 year CAGR of 6.8% to 202.9 mmscmd.
This burgeoning demand supply gap is expected to be met through LNG
imports and Petronet LNG with its expanded capacity is well placed to garner a
major portion of this incremental demand. We expect the revenues of Petronet
LNG to grow at a CAGR of 26.1% to Rs 21343.7 crore over the forecast
period.
Kochi terminal & Dahej expansion to drive volume growth
The USD 850 mn Kochi LNG terminal of 2.5 MMTPA capacity is expected to
commission in Q4FY12 which would be later expanded to 5.0 MMTPA by the
end of FY13. Kochi terminal can help serve the Southern market where the
landed cost of domestic gas is higher. The Dahej expansion to 12.5 MMTPA is
expected to commence by FY13 with an additional jetty at Dahej at a cost of
~USD 980 million. Both these projects are to funded in a 70:30 Debt to Equity
ratio. We expect the LNG volumes to grow from the 7.6 MMTPA in FY10 to
10.4 MMTPA in FY13.
LNG pricing not a major concern
Although the LNG pricing is linked to JCC, over the forecast period we do not
expect significant cost increases as there is a fixed formula for pricing the
sourced LNG. Also, with the company having back to back off-take
agreements, we do not foresee any risk in passing on any of the increased
costs. While the recent nuclear
We initiate coverage on Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M) as a BUY with a Price Objective of `975. At CMP of `727, the stock is trading at 16.2x and 14.1x its estimated earnings for FY13 & FY14 respectively, representing a potential upside of ~34% over a period of 15 months. UV sales (XUV500 and Xylo) and LCVs (Maximmo, Genio and Gio) are expected to be the key drivers of growth, while the tractor business is expected to weather the cyclical downturn and experience moderate traction. In addition the tangible benefits of the Ssangyong acquisition would be felt over the medium term as the joint R&D efforts and new product launches materialize. We forecast revenues and earnings to grow at a CAGR of 15.6% and 10.7% to `40,062.3 and `3,169.7 crore, respectively over FY12-14.
XUV 500 and refurbished Xylo to sustain volume growth in the UV segment
After having witnessed a CAGR of 23% over FY09-12, M&M UV sales are expected to moderate going ahead on account of new launches by competitors, rising fuel prices and higher interest rates. We expect M&M UV sales to post a CAGR of 13.2% over FY12-14 to ~2,60,000 units led by capacity ramp up of XUV 500 and strong demand for its existing products.
Weathering the cyclical downturn in tractor sales
The tractor industry being cyclical in nature has been witnessing a downturn since November 2011, after posting robust growth in the preceding two years. We expect this moderation in growth to continue in the near term led by a host of new capacity additions which will affect pricing power, expectation of an unfavorable monsoon and rising interest rates, which would affect serviceability of tractor loans. However, favorable factors like increasing budgetary allocation towards the rural sector, rising non-farm usage, higher MSP among others are likely to partially offset the downturn. While CMIE expects the volumes to grow by 8% for the entire industry, we are less optimistic and expect much lower growth of ~6%. However, southern India which is under penetrated is expected to grow much faster than the industry growth. On the back drop of its new facility of 1,00,000 units p.a. being commissioned at Zaheerabad in Karnataka, we expect M&M the market leader to grow faster than the industry.
We expect M&M (market leader with a share of ~40%) to post a CAGR of 7.5% over FY12-14 to reach ~2,72,000 units by FY14 and consequently revenues from this segment are expected to reach ~`11,500 crore by FY14 (CAGR of 8.6%). However, we expect significant pressure on margins led by higher raw material costs and lack of pricing power given the large capacity expansions across the industry.
LCV growth momentum to continue
Despite being a late entrant in the commercial vehicles (CV) market, M&M has carved for itself an enviable market share of ~30% in a relatively short span of time. Although the growth in the LCV markets is expected to tone down to a CAGR of 14% (from a 3 year CAGR of 32.9% over FY09-11), we expect M&M to outperform th
We initiate coverage on Wockhardt Limited (Wockhardt) as a BUY with a
Price Objective of ` 978 (target 10.0x FY14 P/E). At CMP of ` 565 the stock
is trading at 3.4x and 5.8x its estimated earnings for FY2013E & FY2014E
representing a potential upside of ~73% over a period of 18 months. With
the contingent liability concerns addressed and bulk of FCCBs already
repaid, the sale of nutrition business will lead to a substantial increase in
cash which could be used to draw down debt or pursue organic / inorganic
grow opportunities. Further its portfolio of high margin niche products and
impressive FTF launches should provide for strong growth in revenues
(12.3% FY11-14 CAGR) to ` 5311.2 crore and earnings (123.6% FY11-14
CAGR) of ` 97.8 /share by FY14.
During the period 2003 through 2008, Wockhardt has traded mostly in line
with the 1 Year forward PE multiple of its peers viz: Sun Pharma, Cipla,
Lupin and Glenmark. However, post its derivative losses, Wockhardt’s EPS
turned negative. Now that the balance sheet is all cleaned up and all
contingent liabilities addressed, we expect that going forward, Wockhardt
will catch up with its peers leading to a substantial re-rating of the stock.
The document initiates coverage on Tata Motors as a buy, with a target price of Rs. 262 per share, representing an upside of 22.4% from the current market price of Rs. 214. Strong growth from JLR brands, expected recovery in commercial vehicle sales, and better performance of Tata's diesel passenger vehicles are expected to drive consolidated revenues and earnings over FY12-13. JLR volumes are forecast to grow at a CAGR of 17.1% through new product launches and expansion in international markets like China, while commercial vehicle sales are expected to benefit from an interest rate cycle reversal.
More from Vinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com (20)
[4:55 p.m.] Bryan Oates
OJPs are becoming a critical resource for policy-makers and researchers who study the labour market. LMIC continues to work with Vicinity Jobs’ data on OJPs, which can be explored in our Canadian Job Trends Dashboard. Valuable insights have been gained through our analysis of OJP data, including LMIC research lead
Suzanne Spiteri’s recent report on improving the quality and accessibility of job postings to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Decoding job postings: Improving accessibility for neurodivergent job seekers
Improving the quality and accessibility of job postings is one way to reduce employment barriers for neurodivergent people.
Independent Study - College of Wooster Research (2023-2024) FDI, Culture, Glo...AntoniaOwensDetwiler
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
OJP data from firms like Vicinity Jobs have emerged as a complement to traditional sources of labour demand data, such as the Job Vacancy and Wages Survey (JVWS). Ibrahim Abuallail, PhD Candidate, University of Ottawa, presented research relating to bias in OJPs and a proposed approach to effectively adjust OJP data to complement existing official data (such as from the JVWS) and improve the measurement of labour demand.
Seminar: Gender Board Diversity through Ownership NetworksGRAPE
Seminar on gender diversity spillovers through ownership networks at FAME|GRAPE. Presenting novel research. Studies in economics and management using econometrics methods.
"Does Foreign Direct Investment Negatively Affect Preservation of Culture in the Global South? Case Studies in Thailand and Cambodia."
Do elements of globalization, such as Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), negatively affect the ability of countries in the Global South to preserve their culture? This research aims to answer this question by employing a cross-sectional comparative case study analysis utilizing methods of difference. Thailand and Cambodia are compared as they are in the same region and have a similar culture. The metric of difference between Thailand and Cambodia is their ability to preserve their culture. This ability is operationalized by their respective attitudes towards FDI; Thailand imposes stringent regulations and limitations on FDI while Cambodia does not hesitate to accept most FDI and imposes fewer limitations. The evidence from this study suggests that FDI from globally influential countries with high gross domestic products (GDPs) (e.g. China, U.S.) challenges the ability of countries with lower GDPs (e.g. Cambodia) to protect their culture. Furthermore, the ability, or lack thereof, of the receiving countries to protect their culture is amplified by the existence and implementation of restrictive FDI policies imposed by their governments.
My study abroad in Bali, Indonesia, inspired this research topic as I noticed how globalization is changing the culture of its people. I learned their language and way of life which helped me understand the beauty and importance of cultural preservation. I believe we could all benefit from learning new perspectives as they could help us ideate solutions to contemporary issues and empathize with others.
Understanding how timely GST payments influence a lender's decision to approve loans, this topic explores the correlation between GST compliance and creditworthiness. It highlights how consistent GST payments can enhance a business's financial credibility, potentially leading to higher chances of loan approval.
Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
1. First Insights
Cairn India Limited CMP Rs 287.1 PE 7.0x FY2013E Accumulate
We initiate coverage on Cairn India Limited (Cairn) as an Accumlate with an 18 month Price Objective of Rs 324
based on our net asset valuation methodology. At CMP of Rs 287.1, the stock is trading at a 13% discount to its
Net Asset Value at an oil price of $108 per barrel, representing a potential upside of ~12.7%. Our model factors in
the increased royalty and cess burden. Further the demand pull and supply shortages surrounding the oil
complex are compelling and support a higher price trajectory for crude oil in the medium and long term. This
augurs well for Cairn India. Further we believe that the worst has been factored into price and in our opinion
Vedanta is likely to share the royalty burden on a pro rata basis limiting the downside risks to the stock price.
PRICE TARGET Rs 324/- (15-18 Months) Worst factored in the price, limited downside at current valuations
Index Details
Sensex 17,166 Worst factored in price
Nifty 5,153 Despite good operational performance, a string of negative news flow on
BSE 500 6,646
Industry E&P
the corporate side and delays in approval of the Cairn- Vedanta deal has
Scrip Details led to the stock being beaten down to the current valuations. However we
Mkt Cap (Rs in crore) 54614 believe that the stock has reacted significantly from its intermediate high of
Book Value (Rs) 211.9 Rs 372 and all the negatives have been discounted in the price.
Eq Shares O/s (Cr) 190.3
Avg Vol (Lacs) 1.41
52 Week H/L 372/250
Royalty burden to impact bottom-line
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 We expect, the Cairn Energy (62.2% stake) and Vedanta (18.7%), the
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 major share holders of Cairn India to accept to government riders to hasten
up the process of deal completion with Vedanta acquiring additional 40%
BSE Code 532792
NSE Code CAIRN
of the promoter stake in the company. The government has asked Cairn
India to accept royalty as cost recoverable which would mean sharing the
Shareholding Pattern (31st June, 2011) burden between the two partners effectively. Considering that, we have
factored in royalty burden of Rs 1978.8 crore and Rs 2593.0 crore for FY12
Shareholders % holding
Promoters 62.2 & FY13 respectively which would have a direct impact on the bottom-line of
Indian Institutions 7.3 the company.
FII’s 7.5
Non Promoter Corporate 20.3 Cess Payment to further erode value
Public 2.7
Total 100.0 In addition, government has asked Cairn India to withdraw arbitration
against cess payment. Cairn India would have to pay Rs 2,500 per tonne
Cairn India vs. Sensex cess on its 70% share in the Rajasthan Block. It would have an impact of
Rs 1352.3 crore and Rs 1949.3 crore in FY12 and FY13 respectively on
the bottom line of the company.
Valuations still hold attractive
Post acceptance of government riders, we expect the worst to be factored
in for the stock and arrive at a fair value of Rs 324 per share at Brent Oil
Price of USD 108 per barrel with major chunk of the value coming from the
Rajasthan fields at Rs 254 per share. The current value is at 13% discount
to the fair value of the company. Fluctuations in oil price would have upside
and downside risks to our target price impact of which has been quantified
in the later section of the report.
Key Financials (Rs in Cr)
Y/E Mar Net EBITDA PAT EPS EPS RONW ROCE P/E (X) EV/
(Rs Crore) Revenue Growth (%) (%) (%) EBITDA(X)
2010 1623.0 634.3 1051.1 5.5 17.4 3.1 2.8 52.0 83.3
2011E 10277.9 7663.4 6334.4 33.2 501.4 15.7 16.7 8.6 6.9
2012E 13659.5 8494.0 6335.5 33.3 0.3 13.6 14.6 8.6 6.2
2013E 17318.5 10554.1 7801.9 41.0 23.1 14.3 15.6 7.0 5.0
-1- Friday, 9th September, 2011
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2. First Insights
Oil Fundamentals remain intact
With most of the large oil wells in decline state and no news flow on any
major discoveries being announced we expected the supply side to remain
curtailed. Coupled with the ever increasing demand for energy from the
populated developing countries we expect demand for energy to continue
to grow further straining the depleting supplies. This should ensure that oil
prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future.
World Oil Supply and Demand
Source: Industry Sources and Ventura estimates
Major Oil producing countries production profile in a declining phase
Country Year Peak Production (bn bbl) 2010 Production (bn bbl) Decline Rate
US 1970 4.1 2.7 -1.0%
Mexico 2004 1.4 1.1 -0.6%
Argentina 1998 0.3 0.2 -0.6%
Colombia 1999 0.3 0.3 -0.1%
Venezuela 1998 1.4 0.9 -1.1%
Norway 2001 1.2 0.8 -1.1%
United Kingdom 1999 1.1 0.5 -2.0%
Uzbekistan 1998 0.1 0.0 -2.8%
Nigeria 2005 0.9 0.9 -0.1%
Australia 2000 0.3 0.2 -0.9%
Indonesia 1991 0.6 0.4 -1.3%
Egypt 1993 0.3 0.3 -0.3%
Libya 1970 1.2 0.6 -1.7%
Oman 2000 0.4 0.3 -0.6%
Syria 1995 0.2 0.1 -0.9%
Trinidad & Tabago 1978 0.1 0.1 -1.6%
Total 13.9 9.4
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011
This is extremely positive for Cairn and we estimate that for every $10 rise
in the price of oil to contribute Rs 32.6 to the NPV per share.
-2- Friday, 9th September, 2011
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3. First Insights
Sensitivity of NPV to oil price fluctuations
500 Our Best Case
450 Scenario
Fair price in Rs per share
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
80 90 100 108 110 120 130 140 150
Oil Price at $ per barrel
Fair Price Incremental
Source: Ventura estimates
Rajasthan Block- Key to future growth
Rajasthan Block- Key Producing asset
Currently Cairn is producing 1,25,000 bpd of crude from the Mangala fields
and post approval from its minority partner ONGC and DGH (Director
General of Hydrocarbon), it is expected to scale up to its production to
1,50,000 bpd. In addition to the Mangala field, the Bhagyam and
Aishwarya fields are also expected to come on-stream and achieve stable
production levels of 40,000 bpd and 10,000 bpd in Q4FY12 and H2FY13
respectively. Cumulatively the three fields are expected to produce
2,00,000 bpd of production which should cater to 20% of India’s total oil
output. With Cairn all committed to meet its production targets, approval
from the minority partner ONGC and DGH holds the key. We foresee no
further impediments to the smooth passage of the deal as Cairn Energy
and Vedanta are very likely to accept government riders for the approval of
the Cairn- Vedanta deal.
Gross Production Profile of MBA Asset
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
Gross prod. - MBA (000' bpd) Gross Prod MBA EOR ('000 bpd)
Source: Cairn & Ventura estimates
-3- Friday, 9th September, 2011
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4. First Insights
Cairn’s Rajasthan fields have significant 2P resources
The total Proven and Probable (2P) reserves of the MBA fields is
estimated to be ~ 649 mn boe while 300 mnboe or more is recoverable
through EOR activity. Apart from the MBA fields, 22 other fields (including
the Barmer Hill Formation) have been estimated to hold approximately 1.9
bn boe of resources, out of which, the 2P recoverable resources is
estimated at 140 mnboe.
Cumulatively Cairn’s exploration resource potential is of 2.5 bn boe. We
expect the company to reach a production level of 190,000 bpd by FY13.
On the back of enhanced production, we expect the Rajasthan field to
contribute Rs 14,053.7 crore and Rs 20,258.1 crore to the revenue by
FY12 and FY13 respectively.
Matured Assets- Ravva & Cambay Fields have limited growth
opportunities and drilling to commence on Sri Lankan Block
Cairn Energy’s other assets; Ravva block (in KG Basin) and Cambay basin
are matured assets with its production pegged at 34,800 /31,400 bpd and
11,400 / 10,100 bpd of oil and oil equivalent in FY12 / FY13 respectively.
With production from these fields on a decline path, the assets have a
production life of 7-8 years and hence present truncated growth
opportunities.
Cairn Lanka with 100% Working Interest in the NOC block in Sri Lanka has
commenced its drilling plan in August 2011 and plans to dig 3 wells. Any
hydrocarbon discoveries from this block would provide further upside to the
stock. However we have not factored this in our valuations.
Asset Profile for Cairn Energy
Source: Cairn & Ventura Research estimates
-4- Friday, 9th September, 2011
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5. First Insights
Train- 4 and Extended Pipeline to enhance operational performance
and open export opportunities
To ease the transportation of crude oil from the Rajasthan Block to other
public and private refineries in India, Cairn energy has developed a
transportation system consisting of four trains and a pipeline. At present
the total operational capacity of the three operational trains is 30,000 bpd,
50,000 bpd and 50,000 bpd respectively. Train 4 with a capacity of 75,000
bpd is expected to be commissioned in H2CY11 and enhance total
capacity to 2,05,000 bpd.
In addition to the implementation of Train 4, Cairn is also undertaking
extension of the MPT Salaya pipeline to Bhogat which is expected to be
concluded in H2CY12 and will not only expand domestic reach to multiple
refineries but would also open up the possibilities for export.
Both these expansions are expected enhance sales while reducing
operational expenses significantly.
Key Concerns
• Further delays in the approval for ramp up of production in the
Rajasthan Fields from the minority partner ONGC and DGH would
lower the value of the stock.
• Volatility in Crude Oil Prices would have upside and downside
risks to our valuations.
-5- Friday, 9th September, 2011
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6. First Insights
Exhibit 01: Financials and Projections
Profit & Loss Statement Key Ratios
Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011 FY2012e FY2013e Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011 FY2012e FY2013e
Net Sales 1623.0 10277.9 13659.5 17318.5 Per Share Data (Rs)
% Chg. 13.0 533.3 32.9 26.8 EPS 5.5 33.2 33.3 41.0
Total Expenditure 988.7 2614.5 5165.5 6764.3 Cash EPS 5.6 36.5 41.1 52.1
% Chg. 0.0 164.4 97.6 31.0 DPS
EBIDTA 634.3 7663.4 8494.0 10554.1 Book Value 178.5 211.9 245.1 286.1
EBIDTA Margin % 39.1 74.6 62.2 60.9 Capital, Liquidity, Returns Ratio
Other Income 407.7 128.8 186.5 264.6 Debt / Equity (x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
PBIDT 1042.0 7792.2 8680.5 10818.7 Current Ratio (x) 1.5 2.7 3.9 4.5
Depreciation 10.9 611.3 1487.7 2107.1 ROE (%) 3.1 15.7 13.6 14.3
Interest 14.8 290.9 380.4 322.6 ROCE (%) 2.8 16.7 14.6 15.6
PBT 1016.3 6890.0 6812.4 8389.1 Dividend Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Tax Provisions -34.8 555.6 476.9 587.2 Valuation Ratio (x)
Profit After Tax 1051.1 6334.4 6335.5 7801.9 P/E 52.0 8.6 8.6 7.0
Exceptional Items P/BV 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0
Reported PAT 1051.1 6334.4 6335.5 7801.9 EV/Sales 32.5 5.1 3.9 3.0
PAT Margin (%) 64.8 61.6 46.4 45.0 EV/EBIDTA 83.3 6.9 6.2 5.0
Operational Exp / Sales (%) 26.2 14.8 30.0 31.3 Efficiency Ratio (x)
Employee Exp / Sales (%) 6.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 Inventory (days) 65.4 11.6 10.5 9.5
Other Mfr. Exp / Sales (%) 28.0 9.6 6.6 6.6 Debtors (days) 69.0 52.7 55.0 55.0
Tax Rate (%) -3.4 8.1 7.0 7.0 Creditors (days) 194.6 37.3 36.5 36.5
Balance Sheet Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011 FY2012e FY2013e Y/E March, Fig in Rs. Cr FY2010 FY2011 FY2012e FY2013e
Share Capital 1897.0 1901.9 1902.5 1902.5 Profit After Tax 1051.1 6334.4 6335.5 7801.9
Stock options outstanding 46.4 55.5 55.5 55.5 Depreciation 10.9 611.3 1487.7 2107.1
Reserves & Surplus 31925.0 38335.8 44671.4 52473.2 Working Capital Changes -660.5 -761.4 -719.1 -292.5
Total Loans 3400.7 2678.2 2709.0 1562.4 Others -264.5 305.7 0.0 0.0
Net Deferred Tax Liability 445.3 561.2 561.2 561.2 Operating Cash Flow 137.0 6490.0 7104.1 9616.4
Total Liabilities 37714.4 43532.6 49899.6 56554.8 Capital Expenditure -3238.1 -2835.1 -2015.4 -3128.3
Gross Block 222.8 6653.9 7319.3 8197.7 Change in Investment -1541.1 618.0 -109.4 -120.4
Less: Acc. Depreciation 95.8 730.4 2218.1 4325.1 Cash Flow from Investing -4779.3 -2217.1 -2124.8 -3248.7
Net Block 127.0 5923.6 5101.3 3872.5 Proceeds from equity issue 0.3 4.9 0.6 0.0
Capital Work in Progress 9662.9 6066.8 7416.8 9666.8 Inc/(Dec) in Debt -955.7 -722.5 30.8 -1146.7
Goodwill 25319.3 25319.3 25319.3 25319.3 Dividend Paid
Investments 1712.4 1094.4 1203.9 1324.3 Cash Flow from Financing -955.4 -717.6 31.4 -1146.7
Net Current Assets 717.6 5034.3 10764.0 16277.6 Net Change in Cash -5597.6 3555.3 5010.7 5221.0
Miscellaneous Exp. 175.2 94.3 94.3 94.3 Opening Cash Balance 6527.1 929.4 4484.7 9495.4
Total Assets 37714.4 43532.6 49899.6 56554.8 Closing Cash Balance 929.4 4484.7 9495.4 14716.4
Ventura Securities Limited
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