Technical analysis-select-commodities-april-2013
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Most commodities futures have been in a narrow trading range for quite a while now. However with volatility returning many have started to show signs of movement In this blog post we look at the commodities which hold promise. Corn, copper and soyabean are clear shorts while silver is on the verge of a break down. Gold though in a sideways consolidation could be a short term sell. Meanwhile crude oil and natural gas are hitting strong overhead resistances and could over the next few days put in some pullback. Platinum is still undecisive, sugar is a stock to watch for a buying opportunity and palladium is one lone metal which seems headed higher.
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makes it inevitable that the additional demand would be met by imported LNG. Petronet LNG, with its Kochi terminal set
to commission in Q4FY12 and expansion at its Dahej terminal, is all set to benefit from the current scenario. In addition,
diversification plans into the power segment add further value to the company. We expect revenue & earnings growth of
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Favourable natural gas demand and supply to augur well for PLNG
On the back of growing consumption, demand for natural gas is expected to
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supply which is expected to grow at a 5 year CAGR of 6.8% to 202.9 mmscmd.
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imports and Petronet LNG with its expanded capacity is well placed to garner a
major portion of this incremental demand. We expect the revenues of Petronet
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period.
Kochi terminal & Dahej expansion to drive volume growth
The USD 850 mn Kochi LNG terminal of 2.5 MMTPA capacity is expected to
commission in Q4FY12 which would be later expanded to 5.0 MMTPA by the
end of FY13. Kochi terminal can help serve the Southern market where the
landed cost of domestic gas is higher. The Dahej expansion to 12.5 MMTPA is
expected to commence by FY13 with an additional jetty at Dahej at a cost of
~USD 980 million. Both these projects are to funded in a 70:30 Debt to Equity
ratio. We expect the LNG volumes to grow from the 7.6 MMTPA in FY10 to
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LNG pricing not a major concern
Although the LNG pricing is linked to JCC, over the forecast period we do not
expect significant cost increases as there is a fixed formula for pricing the
sourced LNG. Also, with the company having back to back off-take
agreements, we do not foresee any risk in passing on any of the increased
costs. While the recent nuclear
Initiating coverage Mahindra & Mahindra ltd
We initiate coverage on Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M) as a BUY with a Price Objective of `975. At CMP of `727, the stock is trading at 16.2x and 14.1x its estimated earnings for FY13 & FY14 respectively, representing a potential upside of ~34% over a period of 15 months. UV sales (XUV500 and Xylo) and LCVs (Maximmo, Genio and Gio) are expected to be the key drivers of growth, while the tractor business is expected to weather the cyclical downturn and experience moderate traction. In addition the tangible benefits of the Ssangyong acquisition would be felt over the medium term as the joint R&D efforts and new product launches materialize. We forecast revenues and earnings to grow at a CAGR of 15.6% and 10.7% to `40,062.3 and `3,169.7 crore, respectively over FY12-14.
XUV 500 and refurbished Xylo to sustain volume growth in the UV segment
After having witnessed a CAGR of 23% over FY09-12, M&M UV sales are expected to moderate going ahead on account of new launches by competitors, rising fuel prices and higher interest rates. We expect M&M UV sales to post a CAGR of 13.2% over FY12-14 to ~2,60,000 units led by capacity ramp up of XUV 500 and strong demand for its existing products.
Weathering the cyclical downturn in tractor sales
The tractor industry being cyclical in nature has been witnessing a downturn since November 2011, after posting robust growth in the preceding two years. We expect this moderation in growth to continue in the near term led by a host of new capacity additions which will affect pricing power, expectation of an unfavorable monsoon and rising interest rates, which would affect serviceability of tractor loans. However, favorable factors like increasing budgetary allocation towards the rural sector, rising non-farm usage, higher MSP among others are likely to partially offset the downturn. While CMIE expects the volumes to grow by 8% for the entire industry, we are less optimistic and expect much lower growth of ~6%. However, southern India which is under penetrated is expected to grow much faster than the industry growth. On the back drop of its new facility of 1,00,000 units p.a. being commissioned at Zaheerabad in Karnataka, we expect M&M the market leader to grow faster than the industry.
We expect M&M (market leader with a share of ~40%) to post a CAGR of 7.5% over FY12-14 to reach ~2,72,000 units by FY14 and consequently revenues from this segment are expected to reach ~`11,500 crore by FY14 (CAGR of 8.6%). However, we expect significant pressure on margins led by higher raw material costs and lack of pricing power given the large capacity expansions across the industry.
LCV growth momentum to continue
Despite being a late entrant in the commercial vehicles (CV) market, M&M has carved for itself an enviable market share of ~30% in a relatively short span of time. Although the growth in the LCV markets is expected to tone down to a CAGR of 14% (from a 3 year CAGR of 32.9% over FY09-11), we expect M&M to outperform th
Wockhardt ltd
We initiate coverage on Wockhardt Limited (Wockhardt) as a BUY with a
Price Objective of ` 978 (target 10.0x FY14 P/E). At CMP of ` 565 the stock
is trading at 3.4x and 5.8x its estimated earnings for FY2013E & FY2014E
representing a potential upside of ~73% over a period of 18 months. With
the contingent liability concerns addressed and bulk of FCCBs already
repaid, the sale of nutrition business will lead to a substantial increase in
cash which could be used to draw down debt or pursue organic / inorganic
grow opportunities. Further its portfolio of high margin niche products and
impressive FTF launches should provide for strong growth in revenues
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Normally a research analyst takes two years to "officially" be termed as a sector specialist. However, under the able guidance of Vinit Bolinjkar who has 28 years of market experience your process of learning the ropes of equity research, financial modeling, and forecasting goes much faster.
In fact, he virtually guarantees that after 4 months of the internship (following the two months of online learning) you will be able t easily forecast 80% of the market and be as good as any analyst on Dalal Street with two years of work experience.
So what are you waiting for? JOIN NOW https://wa.me/919730836363HUL Equity Research & Valuation | School of Market Studies Webinar Learning S...
HUL Equity Research & Valuation | School of Market Studies Webinar Learning S...Vinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com
This is the outcome of what a student learns in the Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation that is organized by the School of Market Studies.
After two months of intense training, we have a 4-month internship. During the first month of internship Varsha Bezzam, a student made this absolutely detailed presentation on HUL.
This include
leadership analysis,
industry study
MOATS for HUL
Business outlook & strategy
Financial modeling
Equity Valuation using price earning method and DCF valuation
Peer comparison
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#Coronavirus Important Facts We Should Know
#CoronaVirus update:
#AskVinit
The only solution for preventing its spread is ISOLATION.
Work from home should be encouraged.
All public places of congregation for social & cultural activities must be stopped
Infected areas must be locked down
Government & corporate leaders should act decisively to promote best practices for the same
For every death, there are potential 800 people infected.
The fatality is higher than that of H1N1, SARS & MERS
We should adopt the Taiwan model which despite being so close to China is not impacted.
Metal Pipe Stocks - Technical Analysis (Weekly Charts)
Metal Pipe Stocks - Technical Analysis (Weekly Charts)Vinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com
This presentation is providing a study of the technical analysis of metal stock price charts for the Indian stock marketsWebinar: 10 Businesses With Superlative Moats
The concept of economic moats was first made popular by Warren Buffett. In actuality, a moat is a water body around a wonderful castle that helps prevent being raided by enemies. The attractiveness of the castle would have lured enemies to attack. In a similar way, the superior returns of a business venture would invariably attract competition.
To protect your business you would have to build significant competitive advantages that would help secure it.
Branding
Superior product offering
Great distribution
Size of operation
Scalability
Management quality
Technology adoption
IPR / patents / copyrights
are some of the factors which help to build a moat. And several of these together help to broaden and deepen the moat.
Businesses without moats are waiting to get raided. And we must watch the economic moats with a hawks eye to ensure that they are not being eroded. Especially in today’s times, when disruptive forces erode competitive advantages, we must ensure that it is enduring.
However, it is not easy to understand whether the moat is eroding or not. Cause the effect of no moat or an eroding moat will show up much later in the deteriorating financial performance of the business. Hence the time to engage in a “moat checkup and review” is when the business is at its peak.
Multibagger stock picking_using_8_criteria_elimination
Multibagger stock picking_using_8_criteria_eliminationVinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com
Quick & easy system for finding stocks with multibagger potential
If you were asked to find a multibagger from the listed universe of stocks you would obviously get bogged down. The sheer effort of having to go through each of the 5000 stocks and deciding on its multibagger potential would be, to put it mildly, overwhelming! And I guarantee that you would reach nowhere!
Yet there has to be a better way of doing this. So why not invert the whole process and de-select stocks that that do meet the requirements of being investment grade. What you are left with is purely stocks that you would invest in. Next, we apply the proprietary tools to understand whether a stock can be a multibagger. At India Investors Club we refer to this process as the Criteria of Elimination in Stock PickingDematerialization: A Silent Revolution in the Indian Capital Markets
Dematerialization: A Silent Revolution in the Indian Capital MarketsVinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive function. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help protect against mental illness and improve symptoms.Ocl India - Explosive Growth Ahead
- OCL India Ltd is an Indian cement manufacturer that is well positioned to benefit from increased infrastructure development in East India under the new government.
- OCL recently expanded its cement grinding capacity to 6.7 MTPA, which is expected to drive revenue growth of 26% annually through FY16 as utilization increases.
- The company has operating efficiencies from a captive power plant, limestone reserves, and coal linkages that have enabled margins comparable to industry leaders. The analyst initiates coverage with a buy recommendation and target price implying 91% upside.
South Indian Bank
At the CMP of Rs 33, the stock is trading at an Adj P/BV of 1.3x and 1.1x for FY15E and FY16E, respectively. With the new government stepping-up reforms and making efforts to remove the bottlenecks in the economy, we expect the economic growth to pick up going forward. Consequently, we expect the strong growth momentum seen in SIB over past few years to continue. We expect advances and deposits to grow at a CAGR of ~19% each over the forecasted period of FY14-16E.
With business further expected to grow at CAGR of 19.5% over FY14-16E; NIMs remaining stable at ~3.0% and cost-to-income ratio improving to ~45% (currently ~50%), we expect a robust PAT growth of 22.6% CAGR over FY14-16E to Rs 763 crore.
Asset quality of SIB has improved in FY14 with GNPA and Net NPA standing at 1.2% and 0.8% in FY14 against 1.4% and 0.8% in FY13, respectively (which compares favourably with peers).
On the capital adequacy front, SIB is comfortably placed to support the future business needs of the bank over the period FY14-16E. The management has stated that it does not require any Tier-I capital funding during the current year. However, it plans to raise Tier-II capital of Rs 200 crore in FY15 to fund future growth.
India Union Budget 2014-15 | A Holistic Plan of Action
India Union Budget 2014-15 | A Holistic Plan of ActionVinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com
In comparison to the less than ordinary and unimaginative budgetary proposals of yester years, Modi’s maiden budget comes as a welcome change from the norm. The proposals and reforms suggested in the Union Budget 2014-15 are ground breaking, specific with a good measure of thought & common sense and vastly catered for holistic growth of the economy.
The challenging circumstances of a slowing economy, soaring energy prices, inflation, fiscal and current account deficits do not provide adequate leeway to maneuver and hit the path of high growth. Yet the Budget provides a comprehensive plan and directional footprint towards overcoming these hurdles to sustainable growth of 7-8% over the next few years along with providing macro economic stability, lowered inflation, realistic fiscal health targeting and a manageable current account deficit.
The Finance Minister while presenting the budget takes cognizance of the fact that decisive action to fuel growth without populism is the need of the hour. And that resources for developmental expenditure cannot be raised at the cost of burdening the future generations with the legacy of debt. He goes on to emphasize the need to mobilize resources through both tax and non-tax revenues to feed the aspirational developmental expenditure.
In order to achieve this objective the Modi Government has taken head on the various issues plaguing the Indian economy and come out with imaginative and yet very practical and implementable reforms and measures.
India budget-2013-14
The budget document discusses the Union Budget 2013-14 which aims to return the Indian economy to high growth while maintaining fiscal discipline. Key points include containing the fiscal deficit to 5.2% of GDP for the current year and pegging it at 4.8% for 2013-14. The FM has taken a balanced approach through various initiatives to promote manufacturing, infrastructure, and capital markets while also introducing innovative revenue measures and keeping expenditure in check. However, uncertainty around GAAR could negatively impact foreign investment inflows which are important to bridge the current account deficit.
Indian_Pharma_Sector_Technical_Outlook_Dec_2012
The Indian Pharmaceutical sector has been on a roll ever since the global economy picked itself up post the 2007 mayhem. Given the strong fundamentals of the Indian Pharmaceutical industry and the global opportunity due to the patent cliff in the western world, listed pharmaceutical stocks have responded well and rallied substantially. While the international opportunities have been good for the bottom line, pharmaceutical stocks with a larger or significant share of the domestic pharma market have come in for a rude shock as the implementation of the new pricing policy outline of the NPPA can sharply erode profitability. As the policy elements are still not clear, it would be premature to judge how individual companies would be affected.
With a view to having a mid journey outlook on expected price performance of pharmaceutical stocks, we decided to conduct a study of the major pharmaceutical stocks using technical analysis and analyse which stocks offer the best opportunity both from a long and short point of view. The exhaustive analysis was done on 29 of the major stocks, the details of which one can obtained from the slideshow.
The analysis was done using weekly chart data to get a more longer term picture and some of the results we found were quite contrary to general market expectation; yet others were quite revealing of exciting investment opportunities. We could have easily summed up our analysis and provided an instant listing of our analysis and recommendations for the benefit of our blog readers, but we thought it more appropriate that the reader “visualize” our analysis as “one picture is worth more than a thousand words.”
Technical analysis is a great science for stock price forecasting, but the overall investment decision can be more solid if backed by hard core fundamental study. In part 2 of the Indian Pharmaceutical Outlook, we would be providing extremely high quality fundamental evaluation on the fortunes of these very 29 stocks so that our faithful blog readers can make investment decisions based on comprehensive analysis.
As with all the content on this blog, the report will be provided FREE. However in order to make a point of the exclusivity of the content, we request blog readers to send us an email so that we could deliver it directly in your email inbox. This we request so that we could obtain your feedback on the same report so that we can improve on the content. We would also like to solicit your opinion on the type of content that readers find interesting so that future blog posts could be based more on reader interest rather than just what we think you should read.
Initiating coverage gmdc_ltd_buy_for_36_per_appreciation
Initiating coverage gmdc_ltd_buy_for_36_per_appreciationVinit Bolinjkar LION bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com
Gujarat Mineral Development Corporation Ltd. is initiating coverage with a buy recommendation and a target price of Rs. 255. The company is expected to see revenues and earnings grow at a CAGR of 27.1% and 23.7% through FY2014 due to increased lignite volumes, price hikes, and growth in its bauxite business. While its power business has faced issues, the analysts expect a turnaround by FY2014. At the current market price of Rs. 187, the stock is trading at attractive valuations and expected to provide upside of around 36% over 18 months.Divis' lab ltd
Divi's Laboratories Ltd is initiated as a "BUY" recommendation with a target price of Rs. 1287, representing a potential upside of 35%. Divi's is a leading player in the generic APIs and CRAMS spaces and will benefit from increased outsourcing and patent expiries. The company has established relationships with top innovators and a strong pipeline of products. Revenues are expected to grow at a CAGR of 25.2% through FY2014 driven by mature API products and new product approvals. Margins will be maintained through efficient capacity expansion and control of spare capacity. At the target price, Divi's would trade at a justified premium to peers given its high margins, growth, cash
Wockhardt ltd result update
Wockhardt posted a net loss of Rs 191.6 crore for Q4FY12 due to exceptional items such as derivative liabilities and goodwill impairment. Excluding exceptional items, net profit grew 57% YoY to Rs 261.6 crore. Net sales grew 32.2% YoY to Rs 1,241.4 crore. The brokerage expects the company to benefit from its product portfolio and focus on high margin products, projecting a revenue CAGR of 14.8% over FY12-FY14. However, it has lowered earnings estimates for FY13-FY14 to factor in higher taxes and the potential delay of a nutrition business sale. The stock currently trades at attractive valu
Petronet lng
We initiate coverage on Petronet LNG Limited(Petronet) as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs 151 (target PE of 11x
FY2013) over a period of 15-18 months. At CMP of Rs 132.1, the stock is trading at 13.6x and 9.6x its estimated earnings
for FY2012E & FY2013E representing a potential upside of ~13.6%. Petronet LNG is majorly engaged in the business of
LNG procurement, transportation and regasification. Burgeoning natural gas demand supply mismatch in the country
makes it inevitable that the additional demand would be met by imported LNG. Petronet LNG, with its Kochi terminal set
to commission in Q4FY12 and expansion at its Dahej terminal, is all set to benefit from the current scenario. In addition,
diversification plans into the power segment add further value to the company. We expect revenue & earnings growth of
26.1% & 36.5% CAGR respectively over the next three years.
Favourable natural gas demand and supply to augur well for PLNG
On the back of growing consumption, demand for natural gas is expected to
grow at a faster rate of 16.3% (5 year CAGR) to 381 mmscmd compared to
supply which is expected to grow at a 5 year CAGR of 6.8% to 202.9 mmscmd.
This burgeoning demand supply gap is expected to be met through LNG
imports and Petronet LNG with its expanded capacity is well placed to garner a
major portion of this incremental demand. We expect the revenues of Petronet
LNG to grow at a CAGR of 26.1% to Rs 21343.7 crore over the forecast
period.
Kochi terminal & Dahej expansion to drive volume growth
The USD 850 mn Kochi LNG terminal of 2.5 MMTPA capacity is expected to
commission in Q4FY12 which would be later expanded to 5.0 MMTPA by the
end of FY13. Kochi terminal can help serve the Southern market where the
landed cost of domestic gas is higher. The Dahej expansion to 12.5 MMTPA is
expected to commence by FY13 with an additional jetty at Dahej at a cost of
~USD 980 million. Both these projects are to funded in a 70:30 Debt to Equity
ratio. We expect the LNG volumes to grow from the 7.6 MMTPA in FY10 to
10.4 MMTPA in FY13.
LNG pricing not a major concern
Although the LNG pricing is linked to JCC, over the forecast period we do not
expect significant cost increases as there is a fixed formula for pricing the
sourced LNG. Also, with the company having back to back off-take
agreements, we do not foresee any risk in passing on any of the increased
costs. While the recent nuclear
Initiating coverage Mahindra & Mahindra ltd
We initiate coverage on Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd (M&M) as a BUY with a Price Objective of `975. At CMP of `727, the stock is trading at 16.2x and 14.1x its estimated earnings for FY13 & FY14 respectively, representing a potential upside of ~34% over a period of 15 months. UV sales (XUV500 and Xylo) and LCVs (Maximmo, Genio and Gio) are expected to be the key drivers of growth, while the tractor business is expected to weather the cyclical downturn and experience moderate traction. In addition the tangible benefits of the Ssangyong acquisition would be felt over the medium term as the joint R&D efforts and new product launches materialize. We forecast revenues and earnings to grow at a CAGR of 15.6% and 10.7% to `40,062.3 and `3,169.7 crore, respectively over FY12-14.
XUV 500 and refurbished Xylo to sustain volume growth in the UV segment
After having witnessed a CAGR of 23% over FY09-12, M&M UV sales are expected to moderate going ahead on account of new launches by competitors, rising fuel prices and higher interest rates. We expect M&M UV sales to post a CAGR of 13.2% over FY12-14 to ~2,60,000 units led by capacity ramp up of XUV 500 and strong demand for its existing products.
Weathering the cyclical downturn in tractor sales
The tractor industry being cyclical in nature has been witnessing a downturn since November 2011, after posting robust growth in the preceding two years. We expect this moderation in growth to continue in the near term led by a host of new capacity additions which will affect pricing power, expectation of an unfavorable monsoon and rising interest rates, which would affect serviceability of tractor loans. However, favorable factors like increasing budgetary allocation towards the rural sector, rising non-farm usage, higher MSP among others are likely to partially offset the downturn. While CMIE expects the volumes to grow by 8% for the entire industry, we are less optimistic and expect much lower growth of ~6%. However, southern India which is under penetrated is expected to grow much faster than the industry growth. On the back drop of its new facility of 1,00,000 units p.a. being commissioned at Zaheerabad in Karnataka, we expect M&M the market leader to grow faster than the industry.
We expect M&M (market leader with a share of ~40%) to post a CAGR of 7.5% over FY12-14 to reach ~2,72,000 units by FY14 and consequently revenues from this segment are expected to reach ~`11,500 crore by FY14 (CAGR of 8.6%). However, we expect significant pressure on margins led by higher raw material costs and lack of pricing power given the large capacity expansions across the industry.
LCV growth momentum to continue
Despite being a late entrant in the commercial vehicles (CV) market, M&M has carved for itself an enviable market share of ~30% in a relatively short span of time. Although the growth in the LCV markets is expected to tone down to a CAGR of 14% (from a 3 year CAGR of 32.9% over FY09-11), we expect M&M to outperform th
Wockhardt ltd
We initiate coverage on Wockhardt Limited (Wockhardt) as a BUY with a
Price Objective of ` 978 (target 10.0x FY14 P/E). At CMP of ` 565 the stock
is trading at 3.4x and 5.8x its estimated earnings for FY2013E & FY2014E
representing a potential upside of ~73% over a period of 18 months. With
the contingent liability concerns addressed and bulk of FCCBs already
repaid, the sale of nutrition business will lead to a substantial increase in
cash which could be used to draw down debt or pursue organic / inorganic
grow opportunities. Further its portfolio of high margin niche products and
impressive FTF launches should provide for strong growth in revenues
(12.3% FY11-14 CAGR) to ` 5311.2 crore and earnings (123.6% FY11-14
CAGR) of ` 97.8 /share by FY14.
During the period 2003 through 2008, Wockhardt has traded mostly in line
with the 1 Year forward PE multiple of its peers viz: Sun Pharma, Cipla,
Lupin and Glenmark. However, post its derivative losses, Wockhardt’s EPS
turned negative. Now that the balance sheet is all cleaned up and all
contingent liabilities addressed, we expect that going forward, Wockhardt
will catch up with its peers leading to a substantial re-rating of the stock.
Tata motors update
1. Global volumes of Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) continued to grow significantly in March 2012 and are expected to grow 26% in fiscal year 2013 to around 398,000 units due to strong demand for recently launched models.
2. JLR has increased production capacity at some plants to 410,000 units by adding a third shift and has a strong pipeline of new product launches over the next 5 years.
3. The analyst values Tata Motors using a sum-of-the-parts valuation approach and sets a revised target price of Rs. 338 per share based on expected growth in JLR volumes and new product launches.
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These materials are perfect for enhancing your business or classroom presentations, offering visual aids to supplement your insights. Please note that while comprehensive, these slides are intended as supplementary resources and may not be complete for standalone instructional purposes.
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Technical analysis-select-commodities-april-2013
- 1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF SELECT COMMODITIES
- 2. ABOUT WINNING TRADES * Winning Trades ( http://winningtrades1.com) offers a unique proposition of identifying high yield financial investment /trading ideas which have low risk associated with them. * WT is owned and run by Vinit Bolinjkar with over 16 years of experience in financial markets. * To get in touch: Email: bolinjkar.vinit@gmail.com Phone: +91-9730836363 * Other individual experts also contribute content to WT.
- 3. COPPER
- 4. CRUDE OIL
- 5. CORN
- 6. SUGAR
- 7. NATURAL GAS
- 8. PALLADIUM
- 9. SILVER
- 10. PLATINUM
- 11. SOYABEAN
- 12. Thank You