Please find attached, the Initiating Coverage Report on OCL India Ltd.
OCL India Ltd (OCL) is well poised to benefit from the focused emphasis of the newly elected government on infrastructural development in East India. In line with this emphasis, OCLs timing of hiking cement grinding capacity to 6.7 MTPA in March 2014 could not have been better. With the expanded capacity, we expect OCL to report healthy revenue 2 year CAGR of 26% to Rs.3067 crore and PAT growth of 65% to Rs.292 crore by FY16E.
We initiate coverage on OCL as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs.536 representing a potential upside of ~91% over a period of 18 months. At the CMP of Rs.280, the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.7x FY16E and at an EV/Tonne of cement sold in FY16 of $60 ($42 EV/Tonne of capacity). The replacement cost currently is in the range of US$120-140 per tonne.
At the CMP of Rs 33, the stock is trading at an Adj P/BV of 1.3x and 1.1x for FY15E and FY16E, respectively. With the new government stepping-up reforms and making efforts to remove the bottlenecks in the economy, we expect the economic growth to pick up going forward. Consequently, we expect the strong growth momentum seen in SIB over past few years to continue. We expect advances and deposits to grow at a CAGR of ~19% each over the forecasted period of FY14-16E.
With business further expected to grow at CAGR of 19.5% over FY14-16E; NIMs remaining stable at ~3.0% and cost-to-income ratio improving to ~45% (currently ~50%), we expect a robust PAT growth of 22.6% CAGR over FY14-16E to Rs 763 crore.
Asset quality of SIB has improved in FY14 with GNPA and Net NPA standing at 1.2% and 0.8% in FY14 against 1.4% and 0.8% in FY13, respectively (which compares favourably with peers).
On the capital adequacy front, SIB is comfortably placed to support the future business needs of the bank over the period FY14-16E. The management has stated that it does not require any Tier-I capital funding during the current year. However, it plans to raise Tier-II capital of Rs 200 crore in FY15 to fund future growth.
Please find attached, the Initiating Coverage Report on OCL India Ltd.
OCL India Ltd (OCL) is well poised to benefit from the focused emphasis of the newly elected government on infrastructural development in East India. In line with this emphasis, OCLs timing of hiking cement grinding capacity to 6.7 MTPA in March 2014 could not have been better. With the expanded capacity, we expect OCL to report healthy revenue 2 year CAGR of 26% to Rs.3067 crore and PAT growth of 65% to Rs.292 crore by FY16E.
We initiate coverage on OCL as a BUY with a Price Objective of Rs.536 representing a potential upside of ~91% over a period of 18 months. At the CMP of Rs.280, the stock is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 2.7x FY16E and at an EV/Tonne of cement sold in FY16 of $60 ($42 EV/Tonne of capacity). The replacement cost currently is in the range of US$120-140 per tonne.
At the CMP of Rs 33, the stock is trading at an Adj P/BV of 1.3x and 1.1x for FY15E and FY16E, respectively. With the new government stepping-up reforms and making efforts to remove the bottlenecks in the economy, we expect the economic growth to pick up going forward. Consequently, we expect the strong growth momentum seen in SIB over past few years to continue. We expect advances and deposits to grow at a CAGR of ~19% each over the forecasted period of FY14-16E.
With business further expected to grow at CAGR of 19.5% over FY14-16E; NIMs remaining stable at ~3.0% and cost-to-income ratio improving to ~45% (currently ~50%), we expect a robust PAT growth of 22.6% CAGR over FY14-16E to Rs 763 crore.
Asset quality of SIB has improved in FY14 with GNPA and Net NPA standing at 1.2% and 0.8% in FY14 against 1.4% and 0.8% in FY13, respectively (which compares favourably with peers).
On the capital adequacy front, SIB is comfortably placed to support the future business needs of the bank over the period FY14-16E. The management has stated that it does not require any Tier-I capital funding during the current year. However, it plans to raise Tier-II capital of Rs 200 crore in FY15 to fund future growth.