8. Our vantage point would seem ironically
detached… but we find ourselves deeply engaged
9. The irony is precisely because they are fixed,
we lend ourselves to their fate
10. A story makes it safe to empathize
because someone already has decided
11. JACK WOLTZ ALWAYS slept alone. He had a bed big
enough for ten people and a bedroom large enough for
a movie ballroom scene, but he had slept alone since
the death of his first wife ten years before…
On this Thursday morning, for some reason, he awoke
early. The light of dawn made his huge bedroom as
misty as a foggy meadowland. Far down at the foot of
his bed was a familiar shape and Woltz struggled up on
his elbows to get a clearer look. It had the shape of a
horse’s head…
11
14. Today, Video is the largest medium and
story telling is the biggest part of it
But not everything is happy in TV
15. Almost everything that ails us is about
fragmentation
Online/Offline
STB Click-
Behavioral,
Stream
Demo
Audience
& Data
Linear, VOD,
RTB, Programmatic,
Broadband,
Auctions,
Video Distribution DVRs, Network
Performance Based, Business Models
& Devices DVRs, iPads,
Subscription vs.
Connected TVs,
Advertising
Phones, Glasses,
Optic Implants
Content &
Channels
From 5 to 300+
You Tube
Channels,
Informational
2000+
Pornography
Worldwide
16. ButImpact of see most dramatically is the
what we audience fragmentation
decline of ratings
18. Some would have you believe it’s an easy
transition from mass to targeted
19. In the US Market Today, targeting cannot
replace reach
Target < Reach
May 7, 2012 Confidential 19
20. So TV is fighting back, but with large
implications to business models and behavior
Sports & Live Bundling the Linear and Non-linear
Pieces & Measurement
Re-balancing Advertising and And Maybe Unbundling?
Subscription
21. Whose Ox Gets Gored When Content Costs
Go Up?
• Sports -- 11% of viewing, 45% of the costs
• Already channels being dropped and choices will
be moved to other distribution venues
• Content Guys – three strategies emerge: unique
audiences, wolf packs (bigger and bigger) and
hedges with direct to consumer
• A la carte charges already on two MVPDs
• Massive competition for “SVOD” as reruns fade
• What new models will emerge because of
technology?
22. Remember Fundamental Consumer
Business Models Can Change
• As a piece in Scribner's
Monthly explained in 1878, it is only
the "second and third rate novelist
who could not get published in a
magazine and is obliged to publish in
a volume…”
• With the rise of broadcast in the first
half of the 20th century, printed
periodical fiction began a slow
decline as newspapers and
magazines shifted their focus from
entertainment to news and
information
• Novels = Binging (We want to catch
up so when everything is available we
binge)
23. But, the nature of consumption of popular
content hasn’t changed
A minority of the
content always supports
a majority of the views 100%
90%
80%
Log10 Scale
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0 5 10 15 20
Number of books sold from Percentage of VOD impressions
most to least popular US 1865-1960 against top twenty shows
24. Either by Time
“ …out of 590 Homer papyrus fragments
recovered in Egypt at the last count, 454 preserve
bits of the Iliad, the remaining the Odyssey”
25. Or by Distribution. Example P2P Video.
A very few pieces of content (<100) out of 100K support over 90% of the views
Log10 Scale
Rank of Popularity Statistics of Measured Downloads
26. Fragmentation, by adding more choices doesn’t change the
curve, only flattens it across a linear increase in content
27. And really, is the total amount of additional
work that difficult?
28. But the consistency of popularity doesn’t
explain why buyers pay more per-person
Super Bowl
Academy Awards
CPM
Golden Globes
Monday Night Football
The Voice 2012-13
Burn Notice
Reach
May 7, 2012 Confidential 28
29. The 3 Degree Rule: We are influenced by
our friends…
30. The 3 Degree Rule: We are influenced by
our friends, our friends’ friends…
31. The 3 Degree Rule: We are influenced by
our friends, our friends’ friends, and our FFF’s.
And often influence takes multiple exposures so
those larger shows make sense.
32. MASS TV AUDIENCES AREN’T LINEAR –
They are connected
N/2 Viewers * 2
N Viewers of a Show
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
So the same audience of N
viewers distributed across two
equal sized programs of N/2
viewers has significantly fewer
connections
33. And the pricing reflects that
Price Per Ounce
=
Price Per
Person
>>
35. The N*ture of Content: How much of
what we like is influenced?
Nature Nurture
• Homophily – We Associate • We need to discover what
with people who resemble we like… and more and
us (Genetics) and who like more with all the choices
the same things we need help discovering it
• And we probably like the • We are influenced by our
same things whether or not connections, those we trust
we communicate with • There are videos where the
people about them sharing transcends
• But knowing our friends like the content –
them makes us like them Gangnam Style
more
36. Summary
• Just Aggregating Audiences will not Replace those large
mass programs and the connections they generate – 2+2 in
this case does not equal 4
• We will require Smarter Targeting that moves along the
lines of our Connections
• Distinguishing by Content and not by Distribution will align
you more with your users and make you less focused on the
vicissitudes of technology
• Probably Two Types of Content –
– Things that are valuable if we can share them Gangnam Style
– Content that has some social value (we like it more if our friends
like but here our “taste” (nature) rules.
44. Round up the Usual Suspects
Targeting
Interactive Data
3/8/2013 Visibile World 44
45. Can all these guys be happy?
Inventory
Advertisers (More
Owners
Efficiency, Effectiven
ess (Pay More, Give
Less)
Technology
Data Media Agencies
(Piece of Anyone’s Pay Less, Get More)
Action)
Infrastructure
Players – MSO…
(Piece of the Action)
3/8/2013 Visibile World 45
46. Why buy the Whole cow when you can
just buy the Brisket…
3/8/2013 Visibile World 46
47. Supply and Demand Remain the Most
Important Consideration
Supply
<Demand
Demand ~ Supply
Supply > Demand
3/8/2013 Visibile World 47
48. Supply > Demand
Multiple Advertisers Sharing Inventory
• Develop Infrastructure
to Monetize the
Inventory
• Buyers Choose How to
Buy –Buy Audiences
• Dollars go to those who
take risk, provide
liquidity
• Tech to Make Media
Garbage Barges
Buying More Efficient
3/8/2013 Visibile World 48
49. outline
• We are a story telling animal
– We are wired for narrative – what does it mean
– When they say we are wired for Narrative what does it mean
• Our vantage point would seem ironically detached ..but we find our selves deeply engaged (brad
pitt)
• All Narrative is Synchronic (at a specific point in time the French Revolution) even though we watch
diachronically (over time now or five hundred years from now) (french ws picture)
• The figures in a story are no freerer than a painting. Their destiny is set but unrolls before us in time
(rembrandt)
– In movie the image is surrounded by an edge like a painting that gives us context
– In life we think we are free of context and free of will – but the story reminds of our fear that we are not.
• Our Revels are now ended..Foretol
• c
• Live Sympathy..Fix Empathy (brians song)
• There is an old legend that when a soul is about to be reborn it remembers life’s past suffering and
begs not to go forward. An Angel touches it so it forgets. So it is with our stories.
•
50. In movie the image is surrounded by an
edge like a painting that gives us context
51. • Prof Michael Roemer - What enhances the narrative survives, what detracts from it fails
• Differences in interactions
• In daily life our actions seem to constitute freedom and a potential mastery of events. But the story tells us otherwise. For the figures
are trapped an enchantment of causes and consequences of how they came to be. And that trap, that aspect that it’s
over, predetermined is what engages. Its’ why intrusion disrupts.
