Regression analysis: Simple Linear Regression Multiple Linear Regression
Peter Krieg, Copernicus Marketing
1. Digital Age Sales & Marketing Strategy
Peter Krieg, President and CEO
Copernicus Marketing Consulting & Research
October 30, 2010
This report is solely for the use of client personnel. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced for distribution
outside the client organization without prior written approval from Copernicus Marketing Consulting and Research.
Copyright 2010 COPERNICUS, all rights reserved.
2. The Obligatory Statistics
The change has been rapid, and the numbers are staggering…
In 1994, there were about 5,000 websites. Today there are at least 200 million.
There are approximately 1.9 billion internet users 15 years old and older worldwide
Almost half of the U.S. on-line population uses social media on a weekly basis
In fact, social media has overtaken porn as the #1 activity on the web
Facebook now has 500 million members…half of which log on every day
Amazon sold $1 billion in goods through mobile phones from June 2009-June 2010
Over 450 million episodes of TV shows have been downloaded from iTunes
690 million Valentine’s Day gifts were given this year…..on FarmVille
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4. Get Ready for the Digital World
By better understanding—and leveraging to your
advantage—consumers’ consumption of media
By taking some relatively simple steps when
developing your strategy…seven to be exact
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6. Video Consumer Mapping Study
4 Screen Categorization
1st 2nd
Computer
TV
Screen
Screen • Web
Live TV • • Email
DVD/VCR • • IM
DVR Playback • • Software
Game Console • • Computer Video
3rd Text 4th
Mobile Message All Other
Screen Screens
Talk • • Environmental
Text • • GPS Navigation
Web • • In-Cinema Movie
Mobile Other •
(e.g. camera)
Mobile Video •
The Council for Research Excellence
@The Nielsen Company
9. Role of Media in Consumer Purchase Journey
Presented to ARF Shopper Council 10/26/2010
10.
11. Research
Need Post
State Purchase
Purchase
‘Pre‐tailing’ Retailing ‘Post‐tailing’
12. Consumer Purchase Path in Home Electronics
Research &
Pre‐Purchase Shopping Around Purchase Post‐Purchase
Pre‐determined Source Mobilization Good Factors on Final After‐purchase
Factors INFORMATION Decision Behaviors
Internet 68%
How much to spend source online
WOM 43%
72% Price 86% Discussed purchase with
Advice fr. friends/family
Which brand to buy Retailer websites 42% Avail. of product/brand friends/family 36%
32%
45% Customer reviews 36% 72%
Something seen while
Where to buy 35% Brand websites 35% Brands 62% Discussed retail
shopping 28%
Model/Specs 33% Shopping websites 34% Technical specs 61% experience with
Ads & sponsorship 28%
Products 32% Search engines 30% Style/Design/Color 57% friends/family 13%
Initial
Good
Touchpoints
Ads 32%
INSPIRATION
Something seen while source online
shopping 23%
WOM 22% Customer reviews 28%
Something read/seen Online shopping sites
22% 23% Price comparison
Speaking to sites 23%
friends/family 19% Retailer websites 23%
Brand websites 17%
Source: Shopper Journeys USA 2010 Home Electronics n=1072
13. Digital is Core to the Journey:
Mobile Is Especially Influential
14. So What Do I Do?
How to Make Better Decisions
1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
2. Better Info on the Target’s Media Habits
3. Activate “Brand Advocates” within Current Customers
4. Understanding How Your Target Tries to Find You
5. Ongoing “Conversations” with Customers
6. Deeper Understanding of Consumer/Customer Needs, Wants, Problems
7. Clear-eyed Assessment of Your Brand’s Competitive Strengths &
Weaknesses
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15. Your Basic “Strategy Study”
An ample, but not overly-large, sample:
Consumers: 500-800
B2B: 300-500
– Conducted on-line
– Use one of the many consumer panels
– B2B may require telephone recruit
– A 25 minute questionnaire
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16. 1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
“The most important strategic decision is
targeting—nail this and everything else
falls into place.”
Phil Kotler,
Northwestern University
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17. 1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
“If you’re on the wrong train,
every stop is the wrong stop.”
David Verklin
CEO, Canoe Ventures LLC
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18. 1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
59% of senior executives in large companies have
done a “segmentation study” in the past 2 years.
BUT
Only 14% of those senior execs involved in a
segmentation study derived any real value!
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19. 1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
The Segmentation approaches that are commonly used are one-
dimensional... and flawed.
ACTIONABILITY CRITERIA
Segments are Identifies a Target
Provides Differentially Segment that is,
Provocative Reachable in terms of Clearly, the Most
Insights into Media and Channel Profitable for Your
Common Approaches Needs? Strategies? Brand?
Needs-Based
Segmentation YES NO RARELY
Demographic-Based
Segmentation SOMETIMES YES RARELY
Usage/Behavior-Based
Segmentation (e.g.,
Heavy Users) RARELY NO RARELY
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20. 1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
Database Knowledge on
each Customer and
Prospect
D&B list data
Account/transaction data
Analyze
Which characteristics
Primary Research among predicts openness to Create Segments
200-400 Decision-Makers your brand? from these Key
Purchase Volume
Which predict “Predictor”
Channel(s) profitability for you? Variables
Decision-Process
Which predict purchase
Product Needs/Wants
of several of your
Price Sensitivity products?
CRM-Related Needs
Perceptions of Client &
Competitors
Probability of Buying/ Buying
More from Client
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21. 1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
Recent Findings
How people shop has recently emerged as a key
segmentation dimension.
That is, how you shop is often a predictor of what
brands/products you will want
This kind of behavior, and segmentation, favors the
newer, “challenger” brands
The “involved” buyer doesn’t revert to the big/safe
brand (nor necessarily the cheapest)
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22. 1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
Case History: Industrial Lubricants Company
Survey of 400 factory locations, interviewed decision-makers for lubricants, 30
minute telephone interview.
– We appended D&B data on company and the location
Created and tested 200+ variables. Found two variables that worked
Number of Employees at Location
(surrogate for oil volume)
HIGH LOW
High Openness High Openness
Sales Growth HIGH • Buys high margin oil • Buys high margin oil
for Past 2 • Buys services too • Will buy services
Years
(surrogate for Average Openness Low Openness
Price • Step down offering & • Low value
LOW
Insensitivity) services • Walk away if necessary
• Low price oil program
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23. 1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
Case History: Industrial Lubricants Company
Big Location
High Sales (High Volume)
Growth • Key
(Low Price growth
Sensitivity) target
Small Location
(Low Volume)
Big Location
(High Volume)
Low Sales
Growth
(High Price
Sensitivity)
Small Location
(Low Volume)
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24. 2. Better Info on the Target’s Media Habits and “Receptivity”
With just a little forethought, and the right “linking” questions,
your targets can be found, accurately, in actionable databases
Sales/
Marketing Customer Sales
MRI Neighborhoods
Databases Databases Prospecting
• Algorithms to • Algorithms to • Algorithms to • Easy-to-use Algorithms to
identify identify classify each classification identify high
segments in segments in of your tools (and density zip
MRI, D&B, customers, “scripts”) for codes/census
Simmons, Experian, using sales people blocks to
etc. transaction to use. direct
ComScore,
data. agency
@Plan, etc.
marketing
and sales
efforts
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25. 2. Better Info on the Target’s Media Habits and “Receptivity”
Actionability
“Must be D&B variables with, at
Telecommunications most, 3 questions that need to be
Company: answered... And anybody at account
could answer reliably”
Financial Services: “Must be totally based on D&B data”
“We will retain a third party company
Industrial Gases: to call every account and prospect
and ask them 10 questions”
Construction “Our salesmen will be used to
Products Supplier: classify accounts/prospects”
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26. 3. Activate “Brand Advocates” within Current Customers
Brand advocates are a small but highly engaged and influential group of customers
Typically representing 5-10% of the customer base
Typically heavy users – but not necessarily much heavier users than some others
Emotionally attached to your brand. Consider it theirs
They have always been valuable because they are influential and can be influenced but
are much more so today because of their reach, the speed with which they can influence,
and the tools at their disposal to influence.
A few years ago Today
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27. 3. Activate “Brand Advocates” within Current Customers
A Restaurant Chain Example
Value of Advocates Segments
Visits/ Introductions/
Month Month Primary Target -
Includes 72% of
Advocates
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28. 3. Activate “Brand Advocates” within Current Customers
Awareness Consumers still need to go through
the same mental “checkpoints” to
become buyers.
It is hard to buy without being
Consideration aware
We have “extended” the funnel to
Trial capture advocacy.
With new communications
goals
Loyalty
All with the understanding that the
New Goals: tools used to influence movement
Intensify through the funnel have obviously
Integrate changed.
Bond Advocacy It is not all “eyeballs to
awareness” anymore.
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29. 4. Understanding How Your Target Tries to Find You
Where do they search?
“Traditional” search engines?
YouTube?
Social Media?
Are they on their computer or phone?
What keywords do they use when searching the category and your brand?
It is not the same for all segments in the market
What sources of information do they like to use when learning about your brand?
Your website?
Social media?
Blogs?
Message boards?
Expert reviews?
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30. 4. Understanding How Your Target Tries to Find You
A tire manufacturer has optimized their website for key search terms,
and drives significant efficiencies with paid search strategies.
Distribution of % of Searches for
Segments “Tire Sizes”
Primary Target
Secondary Target
Non-Target
Uninvolved
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33. 5. Ongoing “Conversations” with Customers
What do you do on-line, on your mobile device, etc.?
Low levels of High levels of
digital social digital social
behavior behavior
Read Use social
blogs, networks, Take part
Write own
Neither create nor watch share & in online
blogs or
consume social media videos, manage discussion/
web pages
listen to photos & forums
podcasts videos
Authors
Commentators
Connectors
Spectators
Inactives
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34. 5. Ongoing “Conversations” with Customers
The digital behavioral composition of your target will guide what digital
tools, website functionality, etc. your agencies need to provide.
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38. 6. Deeper Understanding of Consumer/Customer Needs, Wants, Problems
“Marketing is solving people’s problems… at a profit”
– Somebody at Procter & Gamble
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39. 6. Insight from Dynamic Understanding of Customers’ Needs and Problems
Who is in the Community?
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40. 6. Insight from Dynamic Understanding of Customers’ Needs and Problems
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41. 6. Insight from Dynamic Understanding of Customers’ Needs and Problems
42. 7. Clear-eyed Assessment of Your Brand’s Strengths
Ask (target) customers to rate your brand and competitors
Identify those attributes/benefits which:
– Are motivating
– Are pre-emptible: no competition
– Are—or could be—credible for your brand
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43. 7. Clear-eyed Assessment of Your Brand’s Strengths
Seize your USP… or go to the White Space to find one
Perceptions of Your Brand/Company versus Competitor
Brand
Strategy The Two Brands are Perceived Similarly/the same
Matrix™ Excellent: Acceptable,
Your Brand Could not Be But Could Be Your Brand
Superior Better Better Unacceptable Inferior
Serious
High Key Positioning Price of Entry— Possible Major
Weakness—
Opportunity Maintain Opportunity Opportunity
Try to Fix
Motivating
Power of Mod Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary Secondary
Attribute/ Opportunity Price of Entry Opportunity Opportunity Weakness
Benefit
Potential
Low Opportunity—
Cut Costs? No Action No Action No Action
Increase
Importance?
Potential Value of Strategy Ranked from highest to lowest
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44. 7. Clear-eyed Assessment of Your Brand’s Strengths
The web has dramatically increased the need for transparency. Overstate your
capabilities at your own peril.
From text.dslreport.com:
Re: fios vs xfinity
Note that FiOS sustains the rated Internet speed. Comcast PowerBoost gives you the high speed for a
short period, then drops down to a fraction of that.
My colleague did sustained throughput tests on Comcast & FiOS when he switched over. Amazing
difference in the graphs. FiOS was ruler straight, slightly above his committed speed. Comcast looked like
a cheap roller-coaster - it climbed to a peak, then just as quickly dived down to a low speed and maintained
that.
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45. 7. Clear-eyed Assessment of Your Brand’s Strengths
These words are truer today than they were in 2001
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46. Do Your Homework…
How to Make Better Decisions
1. Better Targeting to Find New Customers
2. Better Info on the Target’s Media Habits and “Receptivity”
3. Activate “Brand Advocates” within Current Customers
4. Understanding How Your Target Tries to Find You
5. Ongoing “Conversations” with Customers
6. Deeper Understanding of Consumer/Customer Needs, Wants, Problems
7. Clear-eye Assessment of Your Brand’s Strengths, Weaknesses, and
Opportunities
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