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When, Where & How AI Will Boost Federal Workforce Productivity

Artificial intelligence could significantly boost productivity in the U.S. federal workforce, potentially providing $532 billion in annual benefits by 2028. However, federal workers will need training to take full advantage of AI's benefits. The study found AI could automate around 30% of average federal workers' tasks by 2028 if investment increases as projected. To maximize AI's benefits, the document recommends federal agencies prioritize reskilling workers, aligning AI with strategic objectives, and ensuring accessible and trusted data.

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WHEN, WHERE & HOW AI WILL BOOST FEDERAL WORKFORCE PRODUCTIVITY – And how federal agencies can prepare
2Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Accenture Research found Artificial Intelligence (AI) could unleash a productivity windfall for the U.S. federal government, worth up to $532 billion annually by 2028 However, federal workers need to be empowered to get the most from AI for this to happen
Investment is projected to grow rapidly AI IS A STRATEGIC PRIORITY FOR THE U.S. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 3Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. According to IDC, the global public sector trails only the media & entertainment industry in rate of AI investment Source: IDC Worldwide Semiannual Artificial Intelligence Systems Spending Guide -2018H2 (published August 2019) $0.00 $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00 $1,000.00 $1,200.00 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 U.S. Federal Government Projected AI Systems Spending, in millions
Groundbreaking economic model quantified AI’s workforce impact across the G20 ACCENTURE RESEARCH FOUND PREVIOUSLY THAT AI WILL BOOST WORKER PRODUCTIVITY 4Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. of daily work activities will be impacted by AI Impact varies dramatically by role 90% $11.5T of GDP at risk across 14 G20 countries without effective reskilling U.S. may forgo $975B in economic growth over 10 years
Produce quantitative data to support strategic planning by federal agencies Create an economic value model using workforce, investment and role-based functional data to forecast the anticipated impact of AI on workforce productivity and roles NEW STUDY DESIGNED TO ASSESS AI’S IMPACT ON THE U.S. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 5Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. 01. Analyzed occupations by tasks 02. Assessed the impact of AI on workers’ time 03. Collected data on workforce composition and AI investment trends 04. Developed economic model using sourced data
AUTOMATABLE TASKS Tasks that potentially can be performed by machines (algorithms, programs, robots, etc.) with minimal intervention from human workers E.g., Simple manual or routine tasks that can be automated NEW STUDY DESIGNED TO ASSESS AI’S IMPACT ON THE U.S. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT 6Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Focused on two potential impacts: AUGMENTABLE TASKS Tasks that can be performed by human workers more effectively through upgraded core capabilities and/or the way in which work is processed E.g., Cognitive tasks that can be augmented with intelligent technologies to inform or improve decision-making
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2018 2021 2023 2028 AI IS POISED TO BOOST U.S. FEDERAL WORKFORCE PRODUCTIVITY DRAMATICALLY 7Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. U.S. federal government can gain $364B or more of value-added productivity by investing in AI and reskilling its workforce 1 Source: Accenture Research analysis of US federal government employment data, BEA, Oxford Economics and IDC Worldwide Semiannual Artificial Intelligence Systems Spending Guide -2018H2 (published August 2019) If the U.S. federal government invests in AI as forecasted and provides necessary workforce training programs, it could gain up to $364B in additional value- added (VA) productivity by 2028 U.S.$Billions $84.4 $143 $364 Baseline VA Additional VA due to impact of AI
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 INCREASING AI INVESTMENTS CAN PRODUCE EVEN GREATER IMPACT 8Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Accelerated spending can yield up to $532B of value-added productivity 2 U.S.$Billions Slow investment (20% CAGR) 2021 2023 2028 Baseline investment (31% CAGR) Intensive investment (40% CAGR) Source: Accenture Research analysis of US federal government employment data, BEA, Oxford Economics and IDC Worldwide Semiannual Artificial Intelligence Systems Spending Guide -2018H2 (published August 2019)
ROLE CLUSTERS WERE USED TO ASSESS AI’S IMPACT ACROSS THE WORKFORCE 9Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Empirical groupings of common work tasks & skillsets used to identify 10 role clusters; workers within each cluster will feel similar impact Management & leadership Supervises and makes decisions Human resources managers, purchasing managers Empathy & support Provides expert support and guidance Registered nurses, occupational therapists Science & engineering Conducts deep, technical analysis Economists, environmental engineers Process & analysis Processes and analyzes information Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks, construction and building inspectors Analytical subject-matter expertise Examines and applies experience with complex systems Detectives and criminal investigators, financial examiners Relational subject-matter expertise Applies expertise in environments that demand human interaction Tax examiners and collectors, revenue agents Technical equipment maintenance Installs and maintains equipment and machinery Aircraft mechanics and service technicians, maintenance workers Machine operation & maneuvering Operates machinery and drives vehicles Firefighters, bus drivers, forklift operator Physical manual labor Performs strenuous physical tasks in specific environments Packers and packagers, cleaners of vehicles and equipment Physical services Performs services that demand physical activity Cooks, personal care and service workers ROLECLUSTER TYPICALACTIVITIES ILLUSTRATIVEOCCUPATIONS
EXPERTS RATED CORE TASKS FOR AI’S POTENTIAL TO AUTOMATE OR AUGMENT 10Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. More than three hundred activities assessed overall AUGMENTABLE AUTOMATABLE NO IMPACT • Respond to customer problems or inquiries • Perform recruiting or hiring activities • Consult legal materials or public records • Analyze market or industry conditions • Notify others of emergencies or problems • Research historical or social issues • Process digital or online data • Compile records, documentation, or other data • Collect fares or payments • Gather information from physical or electronic sources • Calculate financial data • Perform administrative or clerical activities • Communicate with others about operational plans or activities • Confer with clients to determine needs or order specifications • Counsel others about personal matters • Direct scientific or technical activities • Discuss legal matters with clients, disputants, or legal professionals or staff
29% 36% 37% 47% 48% 48% 49% 49% 51% 59% 49% 53% 54% 34% 41% 27% 34% 39% 24% 39% 19% 34% 18% 10% 29% 12% 25% 17% 12% 25% 11% 22% 17% Physical Manual Labor Process and Analysis Technical Equipment Maintenance Relational Subject-Matter Expertise Machine Operation and Maneuvering Physical Services Management and Leadership Science and Engineering Analytical Subject-Matter Expertise Empathy and Support All occupations AI’S BIGGEST POTENTIAL WORKFORCE IMPACT IS AUGMENTING TASKS 11Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Percentage of worker time potentially augmented / automated by AI Source: Accenture Research analysis of US federal government employment data Note: Weighted average across occupation Proportion of worker time that is augmentable Proportion of worker time that is automatable Proportion of worker time not impacted
3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 25% 32% 32% 41% 42% 43% 43% 45% 45% 52% 44% 6% 6% 4% 5% 3% 4% 4% 3% 4% 2% 4% 47% 47% 30% 36% 24% 30% 34% 21% 34% 17% 30% 18% 10% 29% 12% 25% 17% 12% 25% 11% 22% 17% Physical Manual Labor Process and Analysis Technical Equipment Maintenance Relational subject-matter expertise Machine Operation and Maneuvering Physical Services Management and Leadership Science and Engineering Analytical subject-matter expertise Empathy and Support All occupations AI HAS MODEST IMPACT (10%) ON MOST ROLES THROUGH 2021 12Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Percentage of federal worker time potentially augmented / automated by AI over 3 years (2018-2021) 3 Source: Accenture Research analysis of US federal government employment data and IDC Worldwide Semiannual Artificial Intelligence Systems Spending Guide – 2018H2 (published August 2019) Note: Weighted average across occupation Proportion of worker time that is augmentable in 3 years Proportion of worker time that is automatable in 3 years Proportion of worker time not impacted Proportion of worker time that is augmentable beyond the 3-year horizon Proportion of worker time that is automatable beyond the 3-year horizon
10% 13% 13% 17% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18% 21% 18% 18% 23% 24% 30% 31% 31% 32% 32% 33% 38% 32% 19% 19% 12% 15% 10% 12% 14% 9% 14% 7% 12% 34% 34% 22% 26% 17% 22% 25% 15% 25% 12% 22% 18% 10% 29% 12% 25% 17% 12% 25% 11% 22% 17% Physical Manual Labor Process and Analysis Technical Equipment Maintenance Relational subject-matter expertise Machine Operation and Maneuvering Physical Services Management and Leadership Science and Engineering Analytical subject-matter expertise Empathy and Support All occupations AI MAY IMPACT 30% OF AVERAGE FEDERAL WORKER’S TIME BY 2028 13Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Source: Accenture Research analysis of US federal government employment data and IDC Worldwide Semiannual Artificial Intelligence Systems Spending Guide – 2018H2 (published August 2019) Note: Weighted average across occupation Percentage of federal worker time potentially augmented/ automated by AI over years (2018-2028) 4 Proportion of worker time that is augmentable in 10 years Proportion of worker time that is automatable in 10 years Proportion of worker time not impacted Proportion of worker time that is augmentable beyond the 10-year horizon Proportion of worker time that is automatable beyond the 10-year horizon
MOST FEDERAL WORKERS ARE IN HIGHLY AUGMENTABLE ROLES 14Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Upskilling efforts would create value for both business and people 5 Source: Accenture Research analysis of US federal government employment data Analytical subject- matter expertise Empathy and Support Machine Operation and Maneuvering Management and Leadership Physical Manual Labor Physical Services Process and Analysis Relational subject- matter expertise Science and Engineering Technical Equipment Maintenance 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Workertimepotentiallyaugmented Worker time potentially automated 35% 43% Highly-augmentable role Human-centered role Highly-automatable role Note: Weighted average across occupation Note: Size of bubbles reflects size of workforce
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2021 2023 2028 U.S.$Billions Source: Accenture Research analysis of US federal government employment data, BEA, Oxford Economics and IDC Worldwide Semiannual Artificial Intelligence Systems Spending Guide -2018H2 (published August 2019) $66B OF AI BENEFITS ARE AT RISK WITHOUT EFFECTIVE TRAINING 15Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. U.S. federal government may forgo $66B in productivity improvements 6 U.S. federal government risks losing up to $66.46B of projected value-add over ten years if it fails to effectively upskill/reskill the workforce for AI. $15.32B $26B $66.46B
An earlier Accenture study found that while federal workers are confident in their personal readiness for AI, a majority have concerns over lack of clarity FEDERAL WORKFORCE SEEKS HELP RESKILLING 16Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. are confident their technical skills and abilities make them an attractive worker in a “government of the future” said their agency has communicated the potential impact of AI poorly or very poorly were worried about lack of technical support and user training 78% But 73% 61%
22% 26% 35% 38% 39% 39% 40% 42% 44% 46% 48% 48% 51% 52% 63% 44% 49% 43% 41% 43% 35% 48% 37% 39% 40% 44% 36% 34% 33% 40% 29% 21% 37% 34% 35% 33% 22% 26% 13% 24% 21% 18% 12% 18% 18% 18% 8% 19% 16% 19% 17% Agriculture Accommodation and food service Manufacturing Construction Transportation and storage Mining and quarrying Utilities Business services Trade Arts, recreation, unions, etc ICT Public admin. and soc. security* Financial activities Human health and social work Education All industries US Federal Government AI’S PRODUCTIVITY IMPACT WILL VARY DRAMATICALLY ACROSS INDUSTRIES 17Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. U.S. federal government trails only education, health & social work, and financial activities in potential augmentable impact within the U.S. Note: Weighted average across occupation Source: Accenture Research analysis of US federal government and BLS employment data * Public administration and social security sector comprises also Federal government Proportion of worker time that is augmentable Proportion of worker time that is automatable Proportion of worker time not impacted
SECTORS WITH CONSULTATIVE & ANALYTICAL ROLES MOST IMPACTED BY AUGMENTATION 18Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Percentage of worker time potentially augmented / automated by AI by industry Source: Accenture Research analysis of US federal government and BLS employment data Agriculture Accommodation and food service Manufacturing Construction Transportatio… Mining and quarrying Utilities Business services Trade Arts, recreation,… ICT Public admin.… Financial activitiesHuman health and social work Education US Federal government 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% Proportion of work subject to automation Proportionoftimesubjecttoaugmentation Note: Size of bubbles reflects size of workforce Note: Weighted average across occupation
ACTION 01: Emphasize Training Provide access to more continuous and targeted training to give workers the skills needed to make the most of AI MAKING THE MOST OF AI 19Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Three actions would greatly empower federal workers and executives to maximize the benefits of artificial intelligence ACTION 02: Prioritize Strategy Work with program leaders to prioritize strategic mission and business objectives that can be advanced with AI, and don’t overlook frontline workers as they are often the source of the most valuable ideas ACTION 03: Rethink Data Ensure data is readily accessible, trusted and relevant to power the mission while exploring new ways to augment
CHRISTINA BONE Senior Manager, Growth & Strategy Accenture Federal Services 20Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Accenture.com/FederalAIBoom EXPLORE FURTHER IRA ENTIS Managing Director and Growth & Strategy Lead Accenture Federal Services BRYAN RICH Managing Director and Applied Intelligence Lead Accenture Federal Services SANGITA SHAHA Senior Manager, Growth & Strategy Accenture Federal Services KRISTEN VAUGHAN Managing Director and Human Capital Lead Accenture Federal Services
21 ENDNOTES Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. 1 Scenario is based on forecasted AI investments by the U.S. federal government: $599.7M in 2021, $976.2M in 2023 and $3,762.5M in 2028 (Investment source: IDC - 2018-2023; Accenture Research estimate – 2028) 2 Scenarios are based on assumptions of investments in AI by the U.S. federal government in terms of CAGR of AI investment per worker • Baseline scenario is 31% CAGR (based on IDC forecast) with total investment reaching $3.8B in 2028 • Intensive investment is 40% CAGR with total investment reaching $7.4B in 2028 • Slow investment is 20% CAGR with total investment reaching $1.6B in 2028 3 Scenario is based on forecasted AI investments by the U.S. federal government: $599.7M in 2021 4 Scenario is based on assumption about CAGR of AI investment per worker: it is assumed at 31% (as in 5-year IDC forecast) and level reaches $3762.5M in 2028 5 Quadrants defined according to the average worker; worker time augmentation and automation refers to maximum possible impact 6 Scenario is based on forecasted AI investments by the U.S. federal government: $599.7M in 2021, $976.2M in 2023 and $3,762.5M in 2028 Planning assumptions and scenarios used in specific analysis
Accenture Federal Services, a wholly owned subsidiary of Accenture LLP, is a U.S. company with offices in Arlington, Virginia. Accenture’s federal business has served every cabinet-level department and 30 of the largest federal organizations. Accenture Federal Services transforms bold ideas into breakthrough outcomes for clients at defense, intelligence, public safety, civilian and military health organizations. Visit us at www.accenturefederal.com. About Accenture Federal Copyright © 2020 Accenture. All rights reserved. Accenture and its logo are trademarks of Accenture. Accenture Research shapes trends and creates data-driven insights about the most pressing issues global organizations face. Combining the power of innovative research techniques with a deep understanding of our clients’ industries, our team of 250 researchers and analysts spans 23 countries and publishes hundreds of reports, articles and points of view every year. Our thought-provoking research — supported by proprietary data and partnerships with leading organizations such as MIT and Singularity — guides our innovations and allows us to transform theories and fresh ideas into real-world solutions for our clients. About Accenture Research Accenture is a leading global professional services company, providing a broad range of services in strategy and consulting, interactive, technology and operations, with digital capabilities across all of these services. We combine unmatched experience and specialized capabilities across more than 40 industries — powered by the world’s largest network of Advanced Technology and Intelligent Operations centers. With 509,000 people serving clients in more than 120 countries, Accenture brings continuous innovation to help clients improve their performance and create lasting value across their enterprises. Visit us at www.accenture.com. About Accenture