Exponential smoothing
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This document discusses exponential smoothing techniques for time series forecasting. It introduces simple, double, and triple exponential smoothing. Simple exponential smoothing works for stationary time series, double exponential smoothing adds a trend component for trending time series, and triple exponential smoothing (the Holt-Winters method) further adds seasonal components to handle seasonality. The document discusses parameters, components, extensions, and evaluation metrics for exponential smoothing models.
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This document discusses exponential smoothing methods for forecasting, including simple and double exponential smoothing. Simple exponential smoothing weights past observations exponentially to forecast future values, with more recent observations having the greatest influence. Double exponential smoothing also accounts for trends in the data by incorporating a trend component in addition to the smoothing component. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating forecasts using simple and double exponential smoothing methods.
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ARIMA models provide another approach to time series forecasting. Exponential smoothing and ARIMA models are the two most widely-used approaches to time series forecasting, and provide complementary approaches to the problem. While exponential smoothing models were based on a description of trend and seasonality in the data, ARIMA models aim to describe the autocorrelations in the data.
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Exponential smoothing uses all past time series values to generate forecasts, with less weight given to older values. It works by calculating a smoothed level (Lt) at each period t as a weighted average of the current value (yt) and the previous smoothed level (Lt-1). The forecast for the next period (Ft+1) is then set equal to the current smoothed level (Lt). Choosing the smoothing constant (α) determines how responsive the smoothed level is to recent changes in the data.
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Time series decomposition involves breaking down a time series into various components: trend, seasonality, and error/noise. There are different decomposition models such as additive and multiplicative. Smoothing methods like moving averages are used to estimate the trend-cycle component by reducing random variation. Box-Jenkins models combine autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) terms to model time series, and involve identification, estimation, and diagnostic stages.
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This document discusses exponential smoothing methods for forecasting, including simple and double exponential smoothing. Simple exponential smoothing weights past observations exponentially to forecast future values, with more recent observations having the greatest influence. Double exponential smoothing also accounts for trends in the data by incorporating a trend component in addition to the smoothing component. Examples are provided to demonstrate calculating forecasts using simple and double exponential smoothing methods.
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Become an expert in data analytics using the R programming language in this data science certification training course. You’ll master data exploration, data visualization, predictive analytics and descriptive analytics techniques with the R language. With this data science course, you’ll get hands-on practice on R CloudLab by implementing various real-life, industry-based projects in the domains of healthcare, retail, insurance, finance, airlines, music industry, and unemployment.
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2. According to marketsandmarkets.com, the advanced analytics market will be worth $29.53 Billion by 2019
3. Wired.com points to a report by Glassdoor that the average salary of a data scientist is $118,709
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The Data Science with R is recommended for:
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- It discusses various qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods including regression analysis, business barometers, input/output analysis, surveys, and time series analysis.
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2) To fit a mathematical model and proceed to forecast the future.
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The document discusses the Box-Jenkins method of time series forecasting. It describes the Box-Jenkins method as using autoregressive moving average (ARMA) or autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to identify patterns in past time series data and generate forecasts. The document explains that time series can be stationary or non-stationary, and the Box-Jenkins method transforms non-stationary data to make it stationary before fitting ARMA/ARIMA models. The four steps of the Box-Jenkins methodology are identified as model identification, estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting.
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Below topics are explained in this " Time Series in R presentation " -
1. Introduction to ARIMA model
2. Auto-correlation & partial auto-correlation
3. Use case - Forecast the sales of air-tickets using ARIMA
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Become an expert in data analytics using the R programming language in this data science certification training course. You’ll master data exploration, data visualization, predictive analytics and descriptive analytics techniques with the R language. With this data science course, you’ll get hands-on practice on R CloudLab by implementing various real-life, industry-based projects in the domains of healthcare, retail, insurance, finance, airlines, music industry, and unemployment.
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1. This course forms an ideal package for aspiring data analysts aspiring to build a successful career in analytics/data science. By the end of this training, participants will acquire a 360-degree overview of business analytics and R by mastering concepts like data exploration, data visualization, predictive analytics, etc
2. According to marketsandmarkets.com, the advanced analytics market will be worth $29.53 Billion by 2019
3. Wired.com points to a report by Glassdoor that the average salary of a data scientist is $118,709
4. Randstad reports that pay hikes in the analytics industry are 50% higher than IT
The Data Science with R is recommended for:
1. IT professionals looking for a career switch into data science and analytics
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3. Professionals working in data and business analytics
4. Graduates looking to build a career in analytics and data science
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Time series forecasting involves analyzing sequential data measured over time. A time series can be univariate (containing a single variable) or multivariate (containing multiple variables). It can also be continuous or discrete. Key components of time series include trends, cyclical variations, seasonal variations, and irregular variations. Time series analysis involves fitting a model to the data. Stationarity, where the statistical properties do not depend on time, is required for forecasting. Common forecasting models include ARMA, ARIMA, and SARIMA stochastic models as well as artificial neural networks and support vector machines. Each approach has strengths for modeling nonlinear relationships and generalizing to make predictions.
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2. Common forecasting techniques including exponential smoothing to reduce random variation, modeling seasonality using seasonal indices, and incorporating trends and cycles.
3. The process of time series forecasting which involves decomposing historical data, modeling each component, and recomposing forecasts by applying the component models to future periods. Accuracy and sources of error in forecasts are also discussed.
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- It discusses various qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods including regression analysis, business barometers, input/output analysis, surveys, and time series analysis.
- It explains the components of time series analysis including secular trends, seasonal variations, cyclical variations, and irregular variations.
- It provides examples of each type of variation and discusses their importance for time series forecasting.
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Arima model
This document provides an introduction to ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average) models. It discusses key assumptions of ARIMA including stationarity. ARIMA models combine autoregressive (AR) terms, differences or integrations (I), and moving averages (MA). The document outlines the Box-Jenkins approach for ARIMA modeling including identifying a model through correlograms and partial correlograms, estimating parameters, and diagnostic checking to validate the model prior to forecasting.
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Forecasting Techniques
Interventions required to meet business objectives from Forecasting Methods,
Quantitative & Qualitative Methods,
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This document provides an overview and outline of Chapter 12 which covers the analysis of categorical data using two chi-square tests: the chi-square goodness-of-fit test and the chi-square test of independence. These tests are useful for analyzing nominal data, such as categories from market research, to determine if observed frequencies match expected distributions or if two variables are independent. The chapter also provides examples of solving problems using these tests and key terms related to categorical data analysis.
ARIMA
Stationarity
AR process
MA process
Main steps in ARIMA
Forecasting using ARIMA model
Goodness of fit
1634 time series and trend analysis
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Moving average method maths ppt
The document discusses the moving average method for forecasting or smoothing time series data. It explains that a moving average is calculated by averaging successive data points over a set time period, with old data dropped as new data is added. The document outlines how to calculate moving averages for both odd and even time periods. It also discusses the merits and limitations of the moving average method, and provides an example calculation.
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16 ch ken black solution
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Here are the key types of statistics:
- Descriptive statistics: Used to describe and summarize the characteristics of a data set through measures like mean, median, mode, range, standard deviation, etc.
- Inferential statistics: Used to draw conclusions about a population based on a sample. It involves hypothesis testing, confidence intervals, regression analysis, etc.
- Univariate analysis: Analysis of a single variable.
- Bivariate analysis: Analysis of the relationship between two variables.
- Multivariate analysis: Analysis of the relationship between more than two variables simultaneously.
- Parametric statistics: Methods that assume the population follows a known probability distribution (e.g. normal distribution).
- Non
ForecastingBUS255 GoalsBy the end of this chapter, y.docx
Forecasting
BUS255
Goals
By the end of this chapter, you should know:
Importance of Forecasting
Various Forecasting Techniques
Choosing a Forecasting Method
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Forecasting
Forecasts are done to predict future events for planning
Finance, human resources, marketing, operations, and supply chain managers need forecasts to plan
Forecasts are made on many different variables
Forecasts are important to managing both processes and managing supply chains
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Key Decisions in Forecasting
Deciding what to forecast
Level of aggregation
Units of measurement
Choosing a forecasting system
Choosing a forecasting technique
4
5
Forecasting Techniques
Qualitative (Judgment) Methods
Sales force Estimates
Time-series Methods
Naïve Method
Causal Methods
Executive Opinion
Market Research
Delphi Method
Moving Averages
Exponential Smoothing
Regression Analysis
Qualitative (Judgment) methods
Salesforce estimates
Executive opinion
Market Research
The Delphi Method
Salesforce estimates: Forecasts derived from estimates provided by salesforce.
Executive opinion: Method in which opinions, experience, and technical knowledge of one or more managers are summarized to arrive at a single forecast.
Market research: A scientific study and analysis of data gathered from consumer surveys intended to learn consumer interest in a product or service.
Delphi method: A process of gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity.
6
Case Study
Reference: Krajewski, Ritzman, Malhotra. (2010). Operations Management: Processes and Supply Chains, Ninth Edition. Pearson Prentice Hall. P. 42-43.
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Case study questions
What information system is used by UNILEVER to manage forecasts?
What does UNILEVER do when statistical information is not useful for forecasting?
What types of qualitative methods are used by UNILEVER?
What were some suggestions provided to improve forecasting?
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Causal methods – Linear Regression
A dependent variable is related to one or more independent variables by a linear equation
The independent variables are assumed to “cause” the results observed in the past
Simple linear regression model assumes a straight line relationship
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Causal methods – Linear Regression
Y = a + bX
where
Y = dependent variable
X = independent variable
a = Y-intercept of the line
b = slope of the line
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Causal methods – Linear Regression
Fit of the regression model
Coefficient of determination
Standard error of the estimate
Please go to in-class exercise sheet
Coefficient of determination: Also called r-squared. Measures the amount of variation in the dependent variable about its mean that is explained by the regression line. Range between 0 and 1. In general, larger values are better.
Standard error of the estimate: Measures how closely the data on the dependent variable cluster around the regression line. Smaller values are better.
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Time Series
A time seri.
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一比一原版(UO毕业证)渥太华大学毕业证如何办理
原件一模一样【微信：95270640】【渥太华大学毕业证UO学位证成绩单】【微信：95270640】（留信学历认证永久存档查询）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信：95270640】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信：95270640】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份【微信：95270640】
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
办理渥太华大学毕业证毕业证offerUO学位证【微信：95270640 】外观非常精致，由特殊纸质材料制成，上面印有校徽、校名、毕业生姓名、专业等信息。
办理渥太华大学毕业证UO学位证毕业证offer【微信：95270640 】格式相对统一，各专业都有相应的模板。通常包括以下部分：
校徽：象征着学校的荣誉和传承。
校名:学校英文全称
授予学位：本部分将注明获得的具体学位名称。
毕业生姓名：这是最重要的信息之一，标志着该证书是由特定人员获得的。
颁发日期：这是毕业正式生效的时间，也代表着毕业生学业的结束。
其他信息：根据不同的专业和学位，可能会有一些特定的信息或章节。
办理渥太华大学毕业证毕业证offerUO学位证【微信：95270640 】价值很高，需要妥善保管。一般来说，应放置在安全、干燥、防潮的地方，避免长时间暴露在阳光下。如需使用，最好使用复印件而不是原件，以免丢失。
综上所述，办理渥太华大学毕业证毕业证offerUO学位证【微信：95270640 】是证明身份和学历的高价值文件。外观简单庄重，格式统一，包括重要的个人信息和发布日期。对持有人来说，妥善保管是非常重要的。
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https://budapestdata.hu/2024/en/
https://budapestml.hu/2024/en/
tim.spann@zilliz.com
https://www.linkedin.com/in/timothyspann/
https://x.com/paasdev
https://github.com/tspannhw
https://www.youtube.com/@flank-stack
milvus
vector database
gen ai
generative ai
deep learning
machine learning
apache nifi
apache pulsar
apache kafka
apache flink
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We will explore Vertex AI - Model Garden powered experiences, we are going to learn more about the integration of these generative AI APIs. We are going to see in action what the Gemini family of generative models are for developers to build and deploy AI-driven applications. Vertex AI includes a suite of foundation models, these are referred to as the PaLM and Gemini family of generative ai models, and they come in different versions. We are going to cover how to use via API to: - execute prompts in text and chat - cover multimodal use cases with image prompts. - finetune and distill to improve knowledge domains - run function calls with foundation models to optimize them for specific tasks. At the end of the session, developers will understand how to innovate with generative AI and develop apps using the generative ai industry trends.
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澳洲UNSW毕业证书制作新南威尔士大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNSW留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNSW成绩单GPA做UNSW假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证申请新南威尔士大学University of New South Wales degree offer diploma Transcript
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一比一原版兰加拉学院毕业证(Langara毕业证书)学历如何办理
原版办【微信号:BYZS866】【兰加拉学院毕业证(Langara毕业证书)】【微信号:BYZS866】《成绩单、外壳、雅思、offer、真实留信官方学历认证（永久存档/真实可查）》采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路）我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信号BYZS866】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信号BYZS866】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
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一比一原版(Unimelb毕业证书)墨尔本大学毕业证如何办理
原版制作【微信:41543339】【(Unimelb毕业证书)墨尔本大学毕业证】【微信:41543339】《成绩单、外壳、雅思、offer、留信学历认证（永久存档/真实可查）》采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路），我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同进口机器一比一制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信41543339】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信41543339】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
一比一原版英属哥伦比亚大学毕业证(UBC毕业证书)学历如何办理
原版办【微信号:BYZS866】【英属哥伦比亚大学毕业证(UBC毕业证书)】【微信号:BYZS866】《成绩单、外壳、雅思、offer、真实留信官方学历认证（永久存档/真实可查）》采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路）我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信号BYZS866】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信号BYZS866】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
UofT毕业证如何办理
原件一模一样【微信：95270640】【多伦多大学毕业证UofT学位证成绩单】【微信：95270640】（留信学历认证永久存档查询）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信：95270640】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信：95270640】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份【微信：95270640】
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：可来公司面谈，可签订合同，会陪同客户一起到教育部认证窗口递交认证材料，客户在教育部官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
办理多伦多大学毕业证硕士毕业证成绩单UofT学位证【微信：95270640 】外观非常精致，由特殊纸质材料制成，上面印有校徽、校名、毕业生姓名、专业等信息。
办理多伦多大学毕业证UofT学位证硕士毕业证成绩单【微信：95270640 】格式相对统一，各专业都有相应的模板。通常包括以下部分：
校徽：象征着学校的荣誉和传承。
校名:学校英文全称
授予学位：本部分将注明获得的具体学位名称。
毕业生姓名：这是最重要的信息之一，标志着该证书是由特定人员获得的。
颁发日期：这是毕业正式生效的时间，也代表着毕业生学业的结束。
其他信息：根据不同的专业和学位，可能会有一些特定的信息或章节。
办理多伦多大学毕业证硕士毕业证成绩单UofT学位证【微信：95270640 】价值很高，需要妥善保管。一般来说，应放置在安全、干燥、防潮的地方，避免长时间暴露在阳光下。如需使用，最好使用复印件而不是原件，以免丢失。
综上所述，办理多伦多大学毕业证硕士毕业证成绩单UofT学位证【微信：95270640 】是证明身份和学历的高价值文件。外观简单庄重，格式统一，包括重要的个人信息和发布日期。对持有人来说，妥善保管是非常重要的。
办(uts毕业证书)悉尼科技大学毕业证学历证书原版一模一样
原版一模一样【微信：741003700 】【(uts毕业证书)悉尼科技大学毕业证学历证书】【微信：741003700 】学位证，留信认证（真实可查，永久存档）offer、雅思、外壳等材料/诚信可靠,可直接看成品样本，帮您解决无法毕业带来的各种难题！外壳，原版制作，诚信可靠，可直接看成品样本。行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备。十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，包您满意。
本公司拥有海外各大学样板无数，能完美还原海外各大学 Bachelor Diploma degree, Master Degree Diploma
1:1完美还原海外各大学毕业材料上的工艺：水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠。文字图案浮雕、激光镭射、紫外荧光、温感、复印防伪等防伪工艺。材料咨询办理、认证咨询办理请加学历顾问Q/微741003700
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
一比一原版(UCSB文凭证书)圣芭芭拉分校毕业证如何办理
毕业原版【微信:176555708】【(UCSB毕业证书)圣芭芭拉分校毕业证】【微信:176555708】成绩单、外壳、offer、留信学历认证（永久存档真实可查）采用学校原版纸张、特殊工艺完全按照原版一比一制作（包括：隐形水印，阴影底纹，钢印LOGO烫金烫银，LOGO烫金烫银复合重叠，文字图案浮雕，激光镭射，紫外荧光，温感，复印防伪）行业标杆！精益求精，诚心合作，真诚制作！多年品质 ,按需精细制作，24小时接单,全套进口原装设备，十五年致力于帮助留学生解决难题，业务范围有加拿大、英国、澳洲、韩国、美国、新加坡，新西兰等学历材料，包您满意。
【我们承诺采用的是学校原版纸张（纸质、底色、纹路），我们拥有全套进口原装设备，特殊工艺都是采用不同机器制作，仿真度基本可以达到100%，所有工艺效果都可提前给客户展示，不满意可以根据客户要求进行调整，直到满意为止！】
【业务选择办理准则】
一、工作未确定，回国需先给父母、亲戚朋友看下文凭的情况，办理一份就读学校的毕业证【微信176555708】文凭即可
二、回国进私企、外企、自己做生意的情况，这些单位是不查询毕业证真伪的，而且国内没有渠道去查询国外文凭的真假，也不需要提供真实教育部认证。鉴于此，办理一份毕业证【微信176555708】即可
三、进国企，银行，事业单位，考公务员等等，这些单位是必需要提供真实教育部认证的，办理教育部认证所需资料众多且烦琐，所有材料您都必须提供原件，我们凭借丰富的经验，快捷的绿色通道帮您快速整合材料，让您少走弯路。
留信网认证的作用:
1:该专业认证可证明留学生真实身份
2:同时对留学生所学专业登记给予评定
3:国家专业人才认证中心颁发入库证书
4:这个认证书并且可以归档倒地方
5:凡事获得留信网入网的信息将会逐步更新到个人身份内，将在公安局网内查询个人身份证信息后，同步读取人才网入库信息
6:个人职称评审加20分
7:个人信誉贷款加10分
8:在国家人才网主办的国家网络招聘大会中纳入资料，供国家高端企业选择人才
留信网服务项目：
1、留学生专业人才库服务（留信分析）
2、国（境）学习人员提供就业推荐信服务
3、留学人员区块链存储服务
→ 【关于价格问题（保证一手价格）】
我们所定的价格是非常合理的，而且我们现在做得单子大多数都是代理和回头客户介绍的所以一般现在有新的单子 我给客户的都是第一手的代理价格，因为我想坦诚对待大家 不想跟大家在价格方面浪费时间
对于老客户或者被老客户介绍过来的朋友，我们都会适当给一些优惠。
选择实体注册公司办理，更放心，更安全！我们的承诺：客户在留信官方认证查询网站查询到认证通过结果后付款，不成功不收费！
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- 2. 1. ¿Qué significa la palabra ‘exponencial’ en esta técnica de modelado? 2. El modelo se creó en 1960. ¿Por qué crees que siga siendo popular después de 50 años? 3. ¿Qué tipos de tendencia considera esta técnica? 4. ¿Qué tipos de estacionalidad considera esta técnica? 5. El modelo holt winters tiene por lo menos tres puntos débiles que se han intenado resolver desde su creación. ¿Cuáles son?
- 3. Use the historical data to forecast the future Let different parts of the history have different impact on the forecasts Forecast model is not developed from any statistical theory
- 4. weight today Decreasing weight given to older observations 0 1 ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 1 1 2 3
- 6. Simple exponential smoothing Double exponential smoothing Triple exponential smoothing
- 7. Exponential smoothing works well with data that is “moving sideways” (stationary) ( simple smoothing) Must be adapted for data series which exhibit a definite trend (double exponential smoothing) Must be further adapted for data series which exhibit trend and seasonal patterns (triple exponential smoothing)
- 11. It’s important to get familiar with this notation Further on we’ll introduce the trend and seasonal components
- 12. How do we choose alpha?
- 13. Mean Forecast Error (MFE or Bias): Measures average deviation of forecast from actual. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD): Measures average absolute deviation of forecast from actual. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE): Measures absolute error as a percentage of the forecast. Standard Squared Error (MSE): Measures variance of forecast error Tracking Signal (TS): Measures the shift/drift of the forecasting model to consistently overestimate or underestimate demand
- 15. SEASONAL • None SEASONAL • Additive SEASONAL • Multiplicative DOUBLE EXP SMOOTHING TRIPLE EXP SMOOTHING (WINTERS’ METHOD) More complex ES models (double ES and Winters’ method), have been developed to accommodate time series with trend and seasonal components. The general idea here is that forecasts are not only computed from consecutive previous observations (as in SES), but an independent (smoothed) trend and seasonal component can be added.