The document discusses the impacts of sustainable intensification on landscapes and livelihoods in Zambia, focusing on climate change mitigation and integrated programming for sustainable agricultural practices. It highlights key trends such as population growth and urbanization, with charcoal production and agricultural clearing identified as primary drivers of deforestation. The findings suggest that implementing conservation strategies could mitigate these effects while addressing livelihood needs in both Lusaka and Eastern provinces.

1. Impact of sustainable intensification on
landscapes and livelihoods (SILL) in Zambia
Africa RISING East and Southern Africa Review and Planning Meeting,
Malawi, 14-16 July 2015
Robert Richardson, Laura Schmitt Olabisi, Kurt Waldman
Michigan State University

2. SILL Project Objectives
1. Provide an evidence base for linkages between field
and farm-scale sustainable intensification (SI)
interventions and climate change mitigation
2. Provide recommendations to inform the design of an
integrated framework for programming in Zambia
 Pilot sites: Eastern and Lusaka Provinces, Zambia

3. Sustainable
Intensification
Interventions
Agroforestry
Conservation
Agriculture
Forest
Conservation
Biodiversity /
Wildlife
Conservation
Agricultural-Environmental Linkages

4. Participatory System Dynamics Modeling
 Introductory workshop – generate causal loop diagrams
 Review literature and data sets
 Build national model in Vensim
 Participatory modeling workshop – refine parameters
 Build provincial-level model (Eastern and Lusaka)

5. Major Trends in Zambia
 Relatively low population density
 Population growth
 Projected to increase 10x by 2100
 High rates of urbanization
 Deforestation (150,000—300,000 ha/year)

6. Population
Fuel
Food
Grassland
Forest
Agricultural
Decision-
making
Wildlife
populations
Model Structure

7. National Level Deforestation
(baseline, 2010-2060)
14% loss18% loss
Deciduous and evergreen forest
20 M
17.5 M
15 M
12.5 M
10 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : landscape_v5_baseline
Miombo woodland
40 M
37.5 M
35 M
32.5 M
30 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Miombo woodland : landscape_v5_baseline

8. National Model
Deforestation by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline
forest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline

9. Miombo Clearing by Driver
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baseline
miombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline
National Model

10. 1.23% loss rate in
2010
0.93% loss rate in
2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
225,000
150,000
75,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland
600,000
450,000
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Baseline

11. Deforestation by Driver
30,000
22,500
15,000
7500
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Model

12. Miombo Clearing by Driver
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline
Lusaka Model

13. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural
area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their
crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_drought

14. Effects of Maize Yield Increase on
Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_yield

15. Effect of Full Electrification on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_electrification

16. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
300,000
150,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
600,000
300,000
0
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline
Miombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves

17. Eastern Baseline
0.74% loss rate in
2010
0.54% loss rate in
2010
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.75 M
1.5 M
1.25 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.75 M
2.5 M
2.25 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline

18. Eastern Province
Deforestation by Driver
20,000
15,000
10,000
5000
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baseline
area of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline
area of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline
forest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

19. Eastern Province
Miombo Clearing by Driver
30,000
22,450
14,900
7350
-200
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Time (Year)
ha/Year
miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baseline
area of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baseline
area of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baseline
miombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

20. Effect of Drought on Forest Cover
A drought affecting 70% of agricultural area occurs every 40 years, and 40% of agricultural
area every 8 years. Farmers turn to charcoal production for income in years in which their
crops are affected. If farmers engage in CA, they are not affected.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_drought

21. Effects of Maize Yield increase on
Forest Cover
Maize yields increase at 3x their current rate.
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_yield

22. Effect of Full Electrification on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_electrification

23. Effect of Fuel Efficient Stoves on
Forest Cover
Deciduous and evergreen forest
2 M
1.5 M
1 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
ha
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline
Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves
Miombo woodland
3 M
2.5 M
2 M
2010 2025 2040 2055
Time (Year)
Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline
Miombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves

24.  Charcoal production and clearing for agriculture are
both important drivers of deforestation
 Charcoal dominates in Lusaka
 Clearing for agriculture dominates currently in EP
 Charcoal dominates both in the future
 Agricultural land clearing is driven by rural
population growth, not low yields/land abandonment
 Charcoal production is driven by urban population
growth and energy demand
Conclusions