The Green Belt Movement has planted over 45 million trees across three Kenyan watersheds to combat deforestation and environmental degradation. A spatial analysis found these watersheds had higher forest cover compared to control watersheds, indicating GBM's reforestation efforts are effective. However, the analysis also found GBM operates in areas already most suitable for replanting due to lower population densities and poverty levels. For reforestation to be most impactful, projects should focus on areas with higher human pressures like population where trees can benefit communities. This suggests GBM's approach of empowering local communities could be effective in other countries facing similar environmental and humanitarian issues.

1. Reforestation
in
East Africa
Assessment of the Green
Belt Movement’s
Reforestation Efforts in
Kenya

3. Kenya

4. Kenya

6. The Crisis
Population Human Environmental
Growth Pressures Degradation
• 39m population • 1.7% forest cover • Last 60 years
(2009) • Widespread ridden with
• Projected growth deforestation for severe, cyclical
to 65m by 2050 agriculture droughts
• ~50% of the • 50% of agriculture • Chronic soil erosion
population lives is for subsistence • Chronic water loss
below poverty line farming from key
• 75% of domestic watersheds
energy is derived • Decrease in
from fuel wood hydropower due
to water loss

8. “It's a matter of life and death for this country. The
Kenyan forests are facing extinction and it is a man-
made problem.” Wangari Maathai

9. Wangari Mathaai’s
Green Belt Movement
“The mission of the Green Belt Movement is to
mobilize community consciousness for self-
determination, equity, improved
livelihoods, security, and environmental
conservation.”

10. GBM Accomplishments
Planted over 45 million trees in three of
Kenya’s five watersheds
Created a network of 600 communities
across Kenya that care for 6,000 tree
nurseries
Reduced soil erosion in critical watersheds
Restored thousands of acres of biodiversity-
rich indigenous forests

11. Are GBM’s
efforts
effective?
Is GBM
operating in
areas most
suitable for
replanting?

12. Watershed Concept
UPPER WATERSHEDS
Upper Tana River (1)
Upper Ewaso Ngiro (North) (2)
Lake Nakuru, Lake Elementaita, and Lake Naivasha tributaries (3)
Upper Ewaso Ngiro (South) (4)
Upper western watersheds of the Mau Escarpment (5)
Upper eastern watersheds of Mount Elgon (6)
Upper southwestern watersheds of the Cherangani Hills (7)
Upper northern watersheds of the Cherangani Hills (8)
OTHER FEATURES
Closed forests
DRAINAGE BOUNDARIES
Major drainage area boundaries
Sub-drainage area boundaries
WATER BODIES AND RIVERS
Permanent rivers
Water bodies
Source: World Resources Institute

13. Drivers
Deforestation Reforestation
Human settlement Nutrition
Fuel wood Food Security
Logging Fuel wood
Subsistence farming Biodiversity

14. Indicators of Drivers
Available Relevance to Replanting Suitable Unsuitable
Data
Population Indicator of anthropogenic >100 ppl per <100 ppl per km
Degradation
Density impact - fuel wood km
gathering, agriculture, and
illegal logging.
Charcoal/Fuel Indicator of where potential High charcoal Low charcoal
Wood Sources charcoal fuel sources are fuel potential fuel potential
located
Mammal Indicator of more complex Medium to Low mammal
Biodiversity
Diversity forest systems. high mammal diversity
diversity
Poverty Density Proxy for identifying the >50 ppl per sq <50 ppl per sq km
Nutrition
Security
extent to which individuals km
Food
&
have access to adequate
food and water supplies

15. Insufficient Data on Drivers
Available Relevance to Data Issue
Data Replanting
Roads Indicator of human Insufficient data to be used as a credible
Degradation Degradation
habitation. Roads indicator of human population density.
fragment habitat Smaller/informal roads are excluded.
and landscape.
Towns Indicator of high- Insufficient data to be used as a credible
Security/Nutr
density areas where indicator of all high-population density
individuals are likely areas.
& Food
to have market
ition
access
Agriculture Indicator of land Available agricultural data is not detailed
Degradation
use for both enough.
subsistence and
commercial
agriculture
activity.
Protected Indicator of land Protected status varies based on personnel
Biodiversity
Areas/Non- protection status management and the prevalence of
Protected corruption. GBM sources indicates replanting
on public land, therefore they cannot be
exclude from analysis.

16. Are GBM’s
efforts
effective?
Is GBM
operating in
areas most
suitable for
replanting?

17. Methodology
GBM watersheds: Mount Comparison
Kenya (1), Aberdares Forest cover
(3), and Mau Complex between GBM
(5) watersheds &
control watersheds
Control watersheds:
Mount Elgon Suitability
(2), Cherengani Hills (4)
Comparative analysis of
No data on specific population
locations of reforestation density, charcoal
sites source, poverty density &
mammal diversity
Using spatial data, a Each variable scored on
snap shot of Kenya scale of 0-100

18. Comparative Analysis Methodology:
Water Tower Boundaries

19. Comparative Analysis Methodology:
Add Poverty

20. Comparative Analysis Methodology:
Add Population Density

21. Comparative Analysis Methodology:
Add Charcoal

22. Comparative Analysis Methodology:
Intersect Data

23. Comparative Analysis Methodology:
Intersect Data

24. Comparative Analysis Methodology:
Intersect Data

25. Comparative Analysis Results
25
21.89
20 18.74
Average Percent Tree Cover
16.03
15.26
15
10
8.33
5
0
1 2 3 4 5
Water Tower

26. Comparative Analysis Results
25
21.89
20 18.74
Average Percent Tree Cover
16.03
15.26
15
10
8.33
5
0
1 2 3 4 5
Water Tower

27. Are GBM’s
efforts
effective?
Is GBM
operating in
areas most
suitable for
replanting?

28. Reforestation Suitability Analysis
+ +

29. Reforestation Suitability Analysis
+ + *( )

30. Reforestation Suitability Analysis
( + + )*
=

31. Site Suitability Findings
Water Tower 1 Water Tower 2 Water Tower 3
Water Tower 4 Water Tower 5

32. Site Suitability Findings
Water Tower 1 Water Tower 2 Water Tower 3
Water Tower 4 Water Tower 5

33. What this means
In our comparison, there is a significant
forested area between the GBM watersheds
and control GBM (if all other factors hold
constant)
It appears GBM is working in the watersheds
that are most suitable for reforestation efforts

34. Reflections
What are the implications of this study in
other countries? Somalia? World-wide?
Plant trees where people are, for the people
to use and benefit from them!
What is the role of government?

35. Photocredits
greenbeltmovement.org
Brian Thomas, carbon-based-ghg.blogspot.com
BBC News, bbc.co.uk/news/
Mathilde Guillemot, boostinspiration.com
Creative Roots, afroklectic.blogspot.com
Art Poster, kenya-advisor.com
yesbuthowever.com/
twohoursfromlondon.blogspot.com
L Fred Ericks, BBC News, bbc.co.uk/news/
Google Earth, morriscourse.com
The Rainforest Foundation, earthhopenetwork.net