Enterprise-architects as practical futurists

An Association for All IT Architects
Enterprise Architects
as practical futurists
Tom Graves - Tetradian

I’m Tom Graves
 writer
 researcher
 enterprise-architect
 ‘maker of tools for change’
Enterprise architects as practical futurists
 Weblog: http://weblog.tetradian.com/
 Video:https://www.youtube.com/user/tetradian/
videos
 Books: http://tetradianbooks.com/

Part 1: Enterprise-architecture and change
Part 2: Enterprise-architecture and futures
Part 3: A futurists’ toolkit
Part 4: A whole-enterprise architecture toolkit
Wrap-up
How to be practical futurists: About the session
The purpose of this session is to introduce some tools
that can help architects in tackling changes we face now,
and that are coming our way soon

Enterprise architecture is all about change
Yes, we’re facing big changes now - but even larger
changes are coming soon
We need to be ready for those changes
Plans get shredded, but planning (the ability to plan and
re-plan at a moment’s notice) is essential
We need a toolkit that can tackle any kind of change, at any
scope and scale
Part 1: Enterprise architecture and change

Whole-enterprise architecture is a literal ‘the architecture
of the enterprise as a whole’, over multiple timescales
 “things work better when they work together, on-purpose –
every scope, every scale, every type of content or context,
every timescale, from initial idea to decommission”
Link to professional disciplines of futures/strategic-foresight
‘Futures’ is a plural, not singular – we can only know
‘the future’ for certain when it’s already the now
Much of the professional futurists’ toolkit is directly usable
in enterprise architecture
Part 2: Enterprise architecture and futures

Scenarios – modelling alternative-futures
Backcasting – building backwards from a preferred future
Causal Layered Analysis – narrative-based futures
Other tools:
 Wardley Maps – dynamics of strategic choices
 Now to New – an iterative approach to futures
 Stages of Grief – the human impact of change
Part 3: A futurists’ toolkit

Scenarios provide guidance for future choices and options
Build a set of stories (scenarios) of the future (futures)
Find the factors that are stable - design for dynamic
change around that
Develop 2-4 scenarios around at least 2 key change-factors
Develop preliminary plans of how your organisation would
respond to each scenario
As the actual future develops, notice which story is coming
true, and re-plan dynamically for that direction of change
A futures toolkit: Scenarios

[Source:
Deloitte,
April 2020]
A futures toolkit: Scenarios: Factors

[Source:
Deloitte,
April 2020]
A futures toolkit: Scenarios: Story-set

[Source:
Deloitte,
April 2020]
A futures toolkit: Scenarios: Implications

Scenarios provide guidance for future choices and options
 source for example on previous slides:
https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/global/Documents/About-
Deloitte/COVID-19/Thrive-scenarios-for-resilient-leaders.pdf
 Further information:
 Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scenario_planning
 Shell scenarios: https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-
future/scenarios.html
 Scenario Canvas: https://enklare.wordpress.com/2015/04/26/the-scenario-
canvas/
A futures toolkit: Scenarios

Backcasting reduces overwhelm for large-scale change
Develop a story of a desired future (‘To-Be’)
Make that story human
 how you feel, what you see, what underpins satisfaction
What needs to be in place, for that future to exist?
 what services, assets, decisions, skillsets etc
Work backwards from that future towards the present (‘As-Is’),
in a series of steps (‘horizons’)
 what needs to be in place for/at each of those horizons?
Back at the present, what do you need to do right now to get
from here to the first horizon?
A futures toolkit: Backcasting

[Source:
Đorđe
Vojinović]
A futures toolkit: Backcasting: Overview

Backcasting reduces overwhelm for large-scale change
 source for graphic on previous slide:
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Steps-in-backcasting_fig1_334312079
 Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Backcasting
 Natural Step Canada: https://www.naturalstep.ca/backcasting
 UTS, ‘The Future Backwards’:
https://canvas.uts.edu.au/courses/1276/pages/the-future-backwards
A futures toolkit: Backcasting

Making sense of change through layers of narrative
 developed by Sohail Inayatullah et al., 1998 onward
Four distinct layers:
 litany – the everyday ‘litany of complaint’
 systemic causes – economics, politics, culture, history etc
 worldview – social structure, and the discourse that supports it
 myth / metaphor – underlying deep-story (‘the way things are’)
Layers interweave / interact to drive a social context
For change to be successful, it must address all layers
Failure to address deeper layers will show up as ‘the litany’
A futures toolkit: Causal Layered Analysis

 The iceberg is a common
metaphor in CLA: only the
litany is directly visible,
everything else is beneath
the surface
 The litany is just surface-
level symptoms: the real
issues lie deeper below
 Methods for analysis and
review will change as we go
downward through the layers
A futures toolkit: CLA: ‘The Iceberg’
[Source:
Wikipedia]

 Culture, social-causes
and the surface-level
litany all depend on and
build from the underlying
myth / metaphor
 Sustainable change will
depend on a re-visioning
of the deep-story (‘myth,
metaphor and narrative’)
 Source: José Ramos, ‘Futures
Visioning’,
https://actionforesight.net/narrative-
foresight/
A futures toolkit: CLA: Layers and change

Making sense of change through layers of narrative
Sustainability change depends on the underlying deep-story
 Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causal_layered_analysis
 Metafuture: https://www.metafuture.org/Articles/CausalLayeredAnalysis.htm
 On crosslinks to enterprise-architecture:
 ‘SCAN and Causal Layered Analysis’:
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2012/10/24/scan-and-causal-layered-analysis/
 ‘Two SCAN notes: 2 – Causal Layered Analysis’:
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2014/03/04/two-scan-notes-2-cla/
A futures toolkit: Causal Layered Analysis

Futures: Other tools: Wardley Maps
[Source:
Simon
Wardley]
 Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wardley_map
 Learn Wardley Mapping website: https://learnwardleymapping.com/
 Contextual mapping to guide strategic choices and options
 Two axes: Value-chain (invisible -> visible), Evolution (genesis -> commodity)

‘Now to New’ provides a more stepwise approach to futures
 developed by Nils Pflaeging, Silke Hermann, Jack Martin Leith and others
Futures: Other tools: Now to New
 Jack Martin Leith on ‘Now to New’: http://jackmartinleith.com/now-to-new/

Change often triggers grief –
loss of the old, fear of new
Kübler-Ross ‘Stages of grief’
model can be helpful here:
 denial
 anger
 bargaining
 depression
 acceptance
 Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%BCbler-Ross_model
 BetterHelp: https://www.betterhelp.com/advice/grief/understanding-the-stages-of-grief/
[Source:
U3173699
via Wikimedia]
Futures: Other tools: Stages of grief

Change-mapping – consistent method and governance
Visioning (for Context)
Holomap (for Scope)
SCORE (for Plan)
SCAN (for Action)
After-Action Review (for Review)
Other tools:
 VPEC-T – Values, Policies, Events, Content, Trust
 SEMPER power-model
 Enterprise Canvas for service-modelling
Part 4: A whole-enterprise architecture toolkit

Link disparate tools together, keep on-track to purpose,
prevent scope-creep, and support continuous learning
Is consistent – it works the same way:
 across all enterprise domains
 for every type of content or context
 for every scope and scale
 for every level of complexity
Is context-neutral: call in context-specific tools as required
 should support any/every context-specific tool for any domain
Supports good governance – avoid anti-patterns etc
A whole-EA toolkit: Change-mapping

Whole-EA: Change-mapping: Tasks (CSPAR)
[Source:
Tetradian]
Mission as ‘container’ for task
Change-mapping task-sequence:
 Context – big-picture, vision, drivers
 Scope – boundaries, stakeholders, skills
 Plan – preparation, setup, signals, start/end
 Action – capture ideas, insights, information
 Review – benefits-realised, lessons-learned
Roles:
 within Mission: Explorer, Pathfinder, Observer
 broader-scope: Librarian, Coordinator, Architect

Do the right things; do things
right; learn from every task
Iterative, chain, branch, nest
Avoid anti-patterns:
 don’t rush to Action
 don’t rush to Plan
 don’t run backwards from past
 don’t get stuck in one place
Reduce uncertainty in Plan;
resolve uncertainties in Action
Whole-EA: Change-mapping: Task-detail
[Source:
Tetradian]

Link disparate tools together, keep on-
track to purpose, prevent scope-creep,
and support continuous learning
Works the same way for every type of
content or context, every scope and scale
 Book: https://www.changemappingbook.com/
 Video: https://youtu.be/uey79fSYSNM
 Methods for whole-enterprise architecture:
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2016/07/26/methods-for-
whole-enterprise-architecture-keep-it-simple/
A whole-EA toolkit: Change-mapping

Provides a stable anchor for decisions in the midst of change
Three parts: concern (‘what’), action (‘how’), qualifier (‘why’)
 example: concern: “ideas”; action: “spreading”; qualifier: “worth”
 link all three parts into a vision-phrase: “ideas worth spreading”
Derive values from the vision
Derive principles from the values
Contextualise vision, values, principles in Scope and Plan
Use principles in Plan-stage decision-making
Use values and high-priority principles within real-time Action
A whole-EA toolkit: Visioning

Whole-EA: Visioning in business-architecture
[Source:
Tetradian]

Vision provides a stable anchor for
decisions in the midst of change
Vision has concern, action, qualifier
Derive values from the vision
Derive principles from the values
A whole-EA toolkit: Visioning
 Video ‘Introduction to visioning’: https://youtu.be/z0ybs2VOI-M
 Slidedeck ‘Vision, Role, Mission, Goal’:
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/vision-role-mission-goal-a-framework-
for-business-motivation
[Source:
Tetradian]

Make sense of stakeholders, relationships, responsibilities
Enterprise as ‘why’, organisation as ‘how’
Stakeholders connect to organisation via the ‘why’
Look outwards to make sense of stakeholders’ view
Map the enterprise three steps outward from organisation:
 transactions (‘supply-chain’)
 direct-interactions (‘market’)
 indirect-interactions (‘enterprise-as-storyworld’)
Look inward to model how services need to work
A whole-EA toolkit: Holomap

Whole-EA: Holomap: Looking outward
[Source:
Tetradian]

Whole-EA: Holomap: Linking to inward
[Source:
Tetradian]

Make sense of stakeholders, relations,
responsibilities
Map stakeholders for internal-services,
transactions, direct-interactions,
indirect-interactions
A whole-EA toolkit: Holomap
 Video ‘Introduction to Holomap’: https://youtu.be/dZWFYbGcVgQ
 Holomap as service-context: http://weblog.tetradian.com/services-and-
ecanvas-review-2-supplier-customer/
 Inside-out versus outside-in: http://weblog.tetradian.com/inside-in-inside-out-
outside-in-outside-out/

Identifying, addressing and testing options for change-action
Five domains:
 Strengths – capabilities and services already available for (re)-use
 Challenges – concerns arising that require some kind of change
 Options – choices available, with related opportunities and risks
 Responses – expected or actual feedback from the real-world
 Effectiveness – align every action to enterprise values, qualities
Each action ripples out to other domains, like a spreadsheet
 example: resolved Challenges become Strengths, for new Options
In Options, opportunity and risk are a symmetric pair
A whole-EA toolkit: SCORE options-mapping

Whole-EA: SCORE: SCORE workspace
[Source:
Tetradian]

Identifying, addressing and testing options for change-action
Use SCORE as a more useful version of SWOT-analysis
 SWOT gives lists, SCORE gives usable insights
Each action ripples out to other domains, like a spreadsheet
A whole-EA toolkit: SCORE options-mapping
 Video ‘Introduction to SCORE’: https://youtu.be/SdkhYl7ae0M
 Workshop-slidedeck ‘What’s the SCORE?’:
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/whats-the-score-how-to-make-sense-of-a-
business-change
 Slidedeck ‘Introduction to SCORE’ (old, but shows comparison to SWOT):
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/intro-toscore-v1

Mapping and making sense of choices on uncertainty
Two-axis map – axes are:
 time: before, during, after, relative to an arbitrarily-chosen ‘Now’
 uncertainty: absolute-predictability to deep-uncertainty
Boundaries:
 time-axis: transition from plan to action, transition over the ‘Now’
 uncertainty-axis: limit of effective-certainty
Use map to identify what is or can be made more certain
Feedback-loops across the space (e.g. question and answer,
rules and realities, ‘auftragstaktik and fingerspitzengefühl’)
A whole-EA toolkit: SCAN complexity-map

Base-graphic for SCAN
Whole-EA: SCAN: Mapping uncertainty
[Source:
Tetradian]
Choices for tactics
[Source:
Tetradian]

Feedback loops
Whole-EA: SCAN: Resolving uncertainty
[Source:
Tetradian]
[Source:
Tetradian]
Skewed perceptions
about certainty (‘theory
over practice’)

Whole-EA: SCAN: Mapping uncertainty
[Source:
Tetradian]

Mapping and making sense of choices on uncertainty
Use domains to identify tactics for sensemaking and action
Use map to identify what is or can be made more certain
A whole-EA toolkit: SCAN complexity-map
 Video ‘Introduction to SCAN complexity-map’: https://youtu.be/qvgBIXItVYw
 Posts on SCAN (~100 posts): http://weblog.tetradian.com/tag/scan/
 Slidedeck ‘The dung-beetle’s tale’ (introduction to SCAN):
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/the-dungbeetles-tale-systemsthinking-
complexity-and-the-realworld
 Slidedeck ‘Invisible armies’ (feedback-loops in SCAN):
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/invisible-armies-information-purpose-and-
the-real-enterprise

Supports continuous-learning, continuous-improvement
 initially developed by US Army, has been adapted for many other industries
Depends on two rules: no priority, no blame
Link back to Context and Scope, then five steps:
 “What was supposed to happen?” – link back to Plan
 “What actually happened?” – retrieve action-records from Action
 “What was the source of the difference?” – ‘bad’ and ‘good’
 “What can I do better next time?” – personal commitment
 “What can we do better next time?” – team commitment
Do this process after every action
A whole-EA toolkit: After Action Review

 From Context, Scope, Plan:
“What was supposed to happen?”
 From Action: “What actually
happened?”
 In Review: “What was the source
of the difference?”
 Individual link to Purpose
(Context): “What do I learn from
this, to do better next time?”
 Collective link to People
(Scope/skills): “What do we learn
from this, to do better next time?”
Whole-EA: After Action Review: Process

Establish benefits-realised, lessons-learned
Supports continuous-learning, continuous-improvement
Do this process after every action
A whole-EA toolkit: After Action Review
 Wikipedia on ‘After Action Report’:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/After_action_report
 Video ‘Introduction to After Action Review’: https://youtu.be/55s4CebiTaw
 Slidedeck ‘How to build continuous-learning into enterprise-architecture:
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/how-to-build-continuouslearning-into-
architecturepractice

Use to guide sensemaking in
complex multi-stakeholder
contexts
• developed by Nigel Green and Carl Bate
Five ‘lenses’: Values, Policies,
Events, Content, Trust
Whole-EA: Other tools: VPEC-T
[Source:
Nigel Green
/ Carl Bate]
 Wikipedia on VPEC-T: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VPEC-T
 Book ‘Lost In Translation’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/3236146-
lost-in-translation

Make sense of clashes, conflicts, motivation and more
Whole-EA: Other tools: SEMPER power-model
[Source:
Tetradian]

Make sense of clashes, conflicts, motivation and more
Power as ‘ability to do work’ vs ‘ability to avoid work’
What work needs to be done? What power and ‘response-
ability’ is needed for each form of work? (power-with)
What work is being avoided? How is it being avoided?
(power-under [‘not my job’], power-over [blame etc])
Why is work being avoided? (e.g. stages-of-grief model)
Whole-EA: Other tools: SEMPER power-model
 video ‘Introduction to SEMPER power-model’: https://youtu.be/hdeHbQRCcqw

Whole-EA: Other tools: Enterprise Canvas
[Source:
Tetradian]
Model services, service-relationships, service-completeness

Model services, service-relationships, service-governance
Consistent modelling: “Everything is or represents a service”
Provides fractal checklist for service-completeness
Whole-EA: Other tools: Enterprise Canvas
 slidedeck ‘Bridging enterprise-architecture and systems-thinking’,
https://www.slideshare.net/tetradian/acs-easig-bridging-enterprisearchitecture-
and-systemsthinking
 post-series ‘Services and Enterprise Canvas review’,
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2014/10/29/services-and-ecanvas-review-
summary/
 post ‘Enterprise Canvas as service-viability checklist’,
http://weblog.tetradian.com/2011/09/14/ecanvas-as-service-viability-checklist/

Tools described here all work the same way at every scope
and scale, and for every timescale
 use these context-neutral tools to link together the detail-tools
that each work at specific scope, scale and context
Huge challenges now, but more severe ones coming soon
 depletion of crucial resources – e.g. helium
 climate-change – regardless of cause, it is changing in big ways
 no way to make a possession-based economics sustainable –
mandates a shift to responsibility-based economics
Practice on small-changes to get ready for the big ones…
Futures and whole-EA: Wrapping up…

© 2020 IASA GLOBAL. All rights reserved. The information herein is for informational purposes only and represents the current view of IASA GLOBAL as of the date of this presentation. IASA GLOBAL cannot guarantee the
accuracy of any information provided after the date of this presentation. IASA GLOBAL MAKES NO WARRANTIES, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY, AS TO THE INFORMATION IN THIS PRESENTATION
For further information, please contact us at info@tetradian.com

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