SlideShare a Scribd company logo
Playing Chess with
Companies
simon wardley
@swardley
@lefep
LEF
with text bubbles
DANGER!
Will Robinson
DANGER!
Alas this will be
complex ... ... so I've added some text bubbles
(orange).
Why?
How to?
So what?
Gameplay
Learning
What I'll
cover ...
strategy was the most critical
factor to their organizations
future
97% of Executives in HBR Study, Feb 2014
What people say ..
STRATEGY
Most companies have
documents covering ...
Purchasing
Decisions
(Oracle vs SAP)
Rip out ...
Implementation
Details
(Private vs Public)
and ...
Operational
Details
(SLAs)
and ...
Tactical
Choices
(BYOT)
How?
What?
When?
Because this is
all ...
Why?
Vague
What is left is ...
Everyone else is!
67% of successful
companies do ...
Normally we do stuff as ...
Everyone else is!
67% of successful
companies do ...
Past was no different ...
1984
62 Companies for
you to emulate
Backward causality
If A does B and A is
successful ...
If you do B, you too will be
successful.
THEN
This is what
most strategy
is ...
Q. Why does a
General bombard a
hill?
Ask yourself ...
... because 67%
of other successful
generals bombard
hills?
Err... no! In the
military we use ...
Where?
Maps tell us ...
Why?
Where?
Why?
Where?
How?
What?
When?
Where? Why?
Situational
Awareness
In Military ...
Where? Why?
Situational
Awareness
How?
What?
When?
Action
In Military ...
Where? Why? How?
What?
When?
In Business ...
67% of successful
companies do ...
Business is usually a
tyranny of action over
situational awareness ...
Does it
matter?
I’d rather have a first-rate
execution and second-rate
strategy any time
Jamie Dimon, CEO of
JPMorgan Chase
Typical business
doctrine ...
execution is the key to a
strategy’s success - is as flawed
as it is popular.
Professor Roger L. Martin,
The ExecutionTrap, 2009
How it stands up to
scrutiny ...
StrategicPlay
(AWARENESS)
Uses Open to Compete (ACTION)
I looked into this
problem in 2012 ...
StrategicPlay
(AWARENESS)
Uses Open to Compete (ACTION)
Bubbles size
represents number of
companies ...
StrategicPlay
(AWARENESS)
Uses Open to Compete (ACTION)
Players
+ve MRKT CAP
Over 7 years these
companies showed ...
StrategicPlay
(AWARENESS)
Uses Open to Compete (ACTION)
Chancers
-ve MRKT CAP
Players
+ve MRKT CAP
... whilst these didn't. Key
was strategic play.
NB
97% of execs consider strategy to be critical
to future success
Lack of situational awareness has a negative
impact on market cap
Most business strategy is a tyranny of
action over
situational awareness
How do I
improve
situational
awareness?
Why?
How to?
Onto the next bit ...
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
People
Activities Practices
Data
Capital
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyzxyzxyz
1,2,3,4,51,2,3,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
Organisation
Organisations
consist of ...
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyzxyzxyz
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
Organisation
Box and Wire
We usually try to
make sense of this
with ...
Like this ...
Or this ...
Q. Strategy?
Problem is the box and wire diagrams tell
us nothing ... the meaning is within the text
of the boxes.
If you don't know what a WPS is,
then it's of no use.
Business
Speak
Technology
Speak
?&!A?
Alas we use multiple forms of box and
wire for the same organisation
... causing all sorts of
translation issues.
Map
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyzxyzxyz
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
Organisation
What we want ...
How?
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyz
xyzxyzxyz
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
Organisation
ValueChain
ValueChain
ValueChain
Organisations consist of ...
Let's pretend your
business is making ..
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
User needs ... i.e. what
they want
Supplier needs ... i.e. what
you need to make it
happen.
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
USER
Needs
CUP	
  OF	
  TEA
User need is for a 'cup
of tea'
HenceYOU need to
have the capability to
make a cup of tea ...
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
USER
Needs
CUP	
  OF	
  TEA
Needs
HOT	
  WATER
TEA
Needs
But a cup of tea needs
many things (tea, hot
water etc)
... there's a lot more
but I'm keeping the
diagram simple
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
USER
Needs
CUP	
  OF	
  TEA
Needs
HOT	
  WATER
TEA
Needs
KETTLE
Needs Needs
WATER
POWER
Needs
You can build a chain
of needs and the
capabilities required to
meet those needs.
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
USER
Needs
CUP	
  OF	
  TEA
Needs
HOT	
  WATER
TEA
Needs
KETTLE
Needs Needs
WATER
POWER
Needs
What customer
cares about ...
If your power goes, the customer
only cares that they don't get a 'cup
of tea'.
Photo Storage
Data Centre
Power
Payment
Web Site
Platform
Fotango
CRM
Image
Manipulation
Compute
2005
Company I used to
be CEO of ...
Quite some
time ago ...
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Photo Storage
Payment
Fotango
Image
Manipulation
I took the box and wire
diagram and turned it into
a value chain ...
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Photo Storage
Data Centre
Power
Compute
Payment
Web Site
Fotango
Image
Manipulation
Customer
Relationship
System
(CRM)
Platform
Change!
The problem with
simply using value
chains is ...
Nokia
Nokia today is not the
same as Nokia yesterday
or Nokia Tomorrow
The problem with
change is new stuff
appears ...
Early Adopter
Laggards
Everett Rogers,
Diffusion of Innovation 1962
... and spreads.
It's
Random!
So,
change ...
Evolve
Not quite ...
Evolve
Things don't just
diffuse they evolve ...
A[1]
E.g. new thing
appears ...
A[1] A[2] A[3] A[4] A[5]
Evolution
... then we get
better versions of it.
Time
ApplicableMarket
100% adoption A[5]
100% adoption A[2]
100% adoption A[1]
100% adoption A[3]
100% adoption A[4]
Time for A[5]Time for A[2]
Evolution is hence
multiple waves of
diffusion for
improving
versions. Problem
with diffusion
curves is they have
different applicable
markets and time
to diffuse.
Time
ApplicableMarket
100% adoption A[5]
100% adoption A[2]
100% adoption A[1]
100% adoption A[3]
100% adoption A[4]
Time for A[5]Time for A[2]
Ubiquity of
A1 to A5
However, as things
evolve they
become more
ubiquitous ...
Time
ApplicableMarket
100% adoption A[5]
100% adoption A[2]
100% adoption A[1]
100% adoption A[3]
100% adoption A[4]
Time for A[5]Time for A[2]
Maturity of
A1 to A5
... and more
mature or 'fit for
purpose', 'good
enough'.
Maturity?
So can we
measure ...
It's
mature!
Not it's
not!
Difficult, if something is mature (e.g. a brick) we quickly agree but
ask is a 'smartphone mature' and ...
... arguments break out.
Stacey Matrix
Best way of
understanding the
argument is ..
Stacey Matrix
Key is certainty.
Certainty?
So can we
measure ...
Certainty
Type I II (key) III (key) IV
Publication
Type
Refer to the
wonder of
the thing,
described in
terms of
impact
Refer to building,
construction and
awareness
Refer to
operation,
maintenance
and feature
differences
between different
examples
Dominated by
use i.e. what is
built with this or
on top of this
including guides
for maximising
use.
Meaure Volume Volume
Yes by looking at how
publications change ...
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty = f (Volume Publications [Type II + III],
MatureVolume [II + III])
Ubiquity = f (Actual Market Adoption,
Mature Market Adoption)
We can then measure
ubiquity over certainty
and ...
0%
25.00%
50.00%
75.00%
100.00%
0% 25.00% 50.00% 75.00% 100.00%
... spend 6 months in
the British Library in
2007, repeating this
endless times for lots
of activities.
Then add back in the
publication domains
and ...
Certainty
Ubiquity
Custom Built
Commodity
Service
Product
Utility
Genesis Evolution
... confirm a pattern
first discussed at Foo
Camp in 2004.
Certainty
Ubiquity
Emerging
Best
Good
Novel
Practice
Also applies
to ...
Certainty
Ubiquity
Divergent
Modelled
Convergent
Un-modelled
Data
Also applies
to ...
Certainty
Ubiquity
Hypothesis
Accepted
Theory
Concept
Knowledge
Also appears to
apply to ...
Correlation ≠ Causation
BUT ....
Certainty
Ubiquity
Demand
Supply
Competition
Turns out the entire
model is driven by ....
... both supply and
demand competition
Value Chain
(describes organization)
Evolution
(describes change)
Now combine ...
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Photo Storage
Data Centre
Power
Compute
Payment
Web Site
Fotango
Image
Manipulation
Customer
Relationship
System
(CRM)
Platform
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Photo Storage
Data Centre
Power
Compute
Payment
Web Site
Platform
Fotango
Image
Manipulation
Customer
Relationship
System
(CRM)
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Payment
Web Site
Platform
Fotango
CRM
Online Image
Manipulation
Compute
Map
2005
My first map.
Based upon my
Foo Camp idea,
admittedly
before I knew if
the evolution
axis was real or
not.
Why?
How to?
So what?
Onto the next
bit ...
1) Needs
So why care ...
Turns out maps are
great for identifying ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
User Need
Sell
Differentiate
Like user needs ...
they're at the top of
the map!
User needs are what
we sell and try to
differentiate on.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Supplier Need
User Need
Sell
Differentiate
Consume
Efficiency
... and supplier needs.
A random big - REALLY
BIG - Government
project ...
Big specification
documents and lots of
Box and Wire
Alas, no-one can clearly
articulare the user
needs ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
User
Spend an afternoon
to create a 'Wardley'
map of the entire
project ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Need
... easy for
everyone to see
user needs
2) Change
'Wardley' maps also
deal with change ...
PS. I call it Wardley maps because there are other things
calledValue Chain Maps / Strategy Maps / Digital Maps etc
and it makes it easier for people to know who's to blame
for this stuff.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Take a map ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Competition
... everything
changes due to
competition.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Uncharted
Everything starts
over here ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Chaotic
Uncertain
Unpredictable
Changing
Different
Exciting
Future Worth
Differential
Uncharted
... and has these
properties.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Ordered
Known
Measured
Stable
Standard
Dull
Low Margin
Essential
Industrialised
... and ends over
here.
... with these
properties.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Uncharted
Chaotic
Uncertain
Unpredictable
Changing
Different
Exciting
Future Worth
Differential
Industrialised
Ordered
Known
Measured
Stable
Standard
Dull
Low Margin
Essential
Note, properties
are polar
opposites.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Lean
Uncharted Industrialised
SIX SIGMA / OUTSOURCE
StrongWeak
AGILE / IN-HOUSE
Strong Weak
... which is why there is no
such thing as a one size fits all
management method
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Lean
Uncharted Industrialised
SIX SIGMA / OUTSOURCE
StrongWeak
AGILE / IN-HOUSE
Strong Weak
Salamon and Storey
Innovation Paradox
This creates the ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Future Survival
Innovation
Agile, in-house
i.e. future survival
depends upon ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Future Survival
Innovation
Agile, in-house Surivial Today
Six Sigma,
Outsource
Efficiency
.... but surivial today
depends upon
NB. Polar Opposite
methods
However, most
companies can't see the
landscape ...
SIX SIGMA
StrongWeak
AGILE
Strong Weak
OR
YoYoSo they tend to ...
"We're Agile" OR "We're Six Sigma"
Outsource
SIX SIGMA / OUTSOURCE
StrongWeak
Or they tend to ...
Apply strong methods
because they want to
"Know" what they are
getting ...
Outsource
Incur excessive
change control
costs
Some parts will be
efficient
SIX SIGMA / OUTSOURCE
StrongWeak
Of course, same results
happen for complex
projects ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
3D Visualisation
Land Registry
Data Centre
Power
Platform
HR
Customer
GIS
Customer
Customer
Compute
ERPM
Finance
BIM
Web site
RISK
CRM
WISE
PIMS
Incur excessive
change control
costs
Some parts will be
efficient
If you look at the
underlying map you
can see why ...
This stuff is stable
This stuff will
change
That map is from High
Speed Rail 2 (HS2) ...
3) Management
Which brings me onto ...
What they used to use to
manage HS2 with.
Q. How To
Manage? Difficult to answer with box and
wire ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
3D Visualisation
Land Registry
Data Centre
Power
Platform
HR
Customer
GIS
Customer
Customer
Compute
ERPM
Finance
BIM
Web site
RISK
CRM
WISE
PIMS
So they mapped
HS2 ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
3D Visualisation
Land Registry
Data Centre
Power
Platform
HR
Customer
GIS
Customer
Customer
Compute
PIMS
ERPM
Finance
BIM
Web site
RISK
CRM
WISE
outsource to utility
suppliers
LEGEND
Sharepoint
... now its easy
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
3D Visualisation
Land Registry
Data Centre
Power
Platform
HR
Customer
GIS
Customer
Customer
Compute
PIMS
ERPM
Finance
BIM
Web site
RISK
CRM
WISE
outsource to utility
suppliers
use off the shelf
products
LEGEND
Sharepoint
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
3D Visualisation
Land Registry
Data Centre
Power
Platform
HR
Customer
GIS
Customer
Customer
Compute
PIMS
ERPM
Finance
BIM
Web site
RISK
CRM
WISE
outsource to utility
suppliers
use off the shelf
products
build in-house with
agile techniques
LEGEND
Sharepoint
4) Risk Management
Also maps help
with ....
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
User
Big project ...
mapped ....
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Agile, In-
House
CO
Off the Shelf
Product
Six Sigma,
OutSource
Sensible use of
methods ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Now it's important to
treat things as granular
components ...
Why? See ...
Complexity
Idea
Goodness
Problem is, people
have ideas
Goodness
Complexity
+ features They then expand
the idea ...
Goodness
Complexity
+ features
They then over
expand the idea ...
Goodness
Complexity
FIST
FIST counters this by breaking
large systems into fast,
inexpensive, simple and tiny ...
Condor Cluster
e.g. want to build a super
computer ...
1,753 PlayStation 3s
... build it with these.
Harvest Hawk,
idea to combat
operations in 18
months
FIST has been used in
many places ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
So treat components on
your map individually ... You can even
enforce this
with rules like
'Two Pizza' (see
Amazon)
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Don't treat large
systems as one
thing ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Treat as a group of
smaller
components ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Contract X
So when we looked at the
contract arrangement for the
project ...
This was too
deep and wide
But ... specifications
and box and wire
wouldn't have
shown this
Only mapping did
5) Communication
Maps are also good
for ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Creative
Studios
Traditional Media
(DVDs etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
Service
Recommendation
Engine
CRM
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
TV COMPANY
maps make it easier to
talk about what an
organisation does ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Creative
Studios
Traditional Media
(DVDs etc)
Customer
Leisure TimeAggregator
Branded
Commissioned Acquired
Internet
Broadcast
Artistic
Direction
Production
Talent
Production
Systems
Market
Analysis
Content
Web Site
Streaming
Service
Recommendation
Engine
CRM
Web
Server
Compute
Power
Content Pipeline
TV COMPANY
Q. Strategy?
and to talk
about ...
Take a box and
wire ...
Expand it ... Do you know what this is?
or this?
A
E
B
C
D
I'll assume you don't know
exactly what those things
were, so I've recreated the
same box and wire but
using letters.
Q. Outsource?
C
D
A
E
B
Outsourced
Should we do
this?
Now to ask two
questions ...
Why was this a
disaster?
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A
E
B
C
D
Now turn the diagram
into a map ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Q. Outsource?
A
E
B
C
D
Outsourced
Why was this a
disaster?
Should we do
this?
You can probably
answer these now
6) Scenario Planning
Maps are also
good for ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Access System
Authentication
Biometric
2 Factor
User / Pwd
Login
Log History
Compute
Physical Servers
Design for
Failure
Authorisation (ACL)
Permission
Monitoring
Recommendation
(VRM)
Capability
(Credentials)
Trust
Rule
Based
(2 way)
Rule
Based
(1 way) User
Reporting
Identity (me)
Identity (provider)
Control System
Customer Customer
Security
Company ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Access System
Authentication
Biometric
2 Factor
User / Pwd
Login
Log History
Compute
Physical Servers
Design for
Failure
Authorisation (ACL)
Permission
Monitoring
Recommendation
(VRM)
Capability
(Credentials)
Trust
Rule
Based
(2 way)
Rule
Based
(1 way) User
Reporting
Identity (me)
Identity (provider)
Control System
Customer Customer
Play 1 - Commodity
Identity
Should I do this?
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Access System
Biometric
2 Factor
User / Pwd
Login
Log History
Compute
Physical Servers
Design for
Failure
Authorisation (ACL)
Permission
Monitoring
Recommendation
(VRM)
Capability
(Credentials)
Rule
Based
(2 way)
Rule
Based
(1 way) User
Reporting
Identity (me)
Identity (provider)
Control System
Customer Customer
Authentication
Trust
Play 2 - Gamble on
Trusted Authentication
Or this? (actually
high risk)
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Access System
Authentication
Biometric
2 Factor
User / Pwd
Login
Log History
Compute
Physical Servers
Design for
Failure
Authorisation (ACL)
Permission
Monitoring
Recommendation
(VRM)
Capability
(Credentials)
Trust
Rule
Based
(2 way)
Rule
Based
(1 way) User
Reporting
Identity (me)
Identity (provider)
Control System
Customer Customer
Play 3 - Trust as a
Service
Or this? (actually
very high risk)
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Access System
Authentication
Biometric
2 Factor
User / Pwd
Login
Log History
Compute
Physical Servers
Design for
Failure
Authorisation (ACL)
Permission
Monitoring
Recommendation
(VRM)
Capability
(Credentials)
Trust
Rule
Based
(2 way)
Rule
Based
(1 way) User
Reporting
Identity (me)
Identity (provider)
Control System
Customer Customer
Maps help you work
out a way of attacking
a market,
opportunities and
'what ifs'.
7) Comparison
Maps are also
good for ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Take a map ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
And another ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
And another ...
you can find opportunities
between them
A
B
C
D
E
F
For example - a
process from a
company
Business Unit FR
A
B
C
D
E
F
One business unit in
France
Business Unit GB
A
C
D
E
F
One business unit in
Great Britain
Business Unit
FR & GB
A & A
B
E & E
D & D
F & F
C & C
Overlap them. It tells you
France does B which GB
doesn't
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A
E
D
B
C
F
Business
Unit FR
Now take a map of
French business unit
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A
D
C
E
F
Business
Unit GB
Take a map of GB
business unit
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A & A
E
D
C & C
F
E
D
B
F
Business Unit
FR & GB
Overlap them ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A & A
E
D
C & C
F
E
D
B
F
User Needs
Business Unit
FR & GB
Take a look at user need.
B is a differential that only FR
does
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
E
D
F
E
D F
Differential
LEGEND
B
A & A
C & C
Business Unit
FR & GB
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
E
D
F
E
D F
Differential
LEGEND
Area of
Efficiency
B
A & A
C & C
Business Unit
FR & GB
But also we have three
potential areas of efficiency ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
E
D
F
E
D F
Differential
LEGEND
Area of
Efficiency
Common /
Shared
B
A & A
C & C
Business Unit
FR & GB
... and two potential shared
services.
Business Unit
FR & GB
A & A
B
E & E
D & D
F & F
C & C
The box and wire didn't
tell you anything about
efficiencies, shared services
or what B was.
Why?
How to?
So what?
Learning
Now the next bit ...
Maps are great for
learning, what
worked, what went
wrong ... this is
something most
organisation truly
suck at.
Pattern 1
Efficiency enables Innovation
You can use maps to
learning basic economic
lessons and patterns ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Interface
Agility
Efficiency
Competition1) As things evolve through
competition they become ...
2) But they also enable more
complex systems to appear.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Interface
Electric
Lighting
Radio
Television
Electricity
For example
Componentisation
Herbert Simon
This effect is
known as ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Interface
Future Worth
PastValue
1) But these more
complex systems
are sources of
future worth
2) the old less evolved
approaches ... disappear.
Creative Destruction
Joseph Schumpeter
This destruction of past and
creation of new future
sources of value is called ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Electricity
Computing
Analytics
Intelligent
AgentsIt's essential for
technological
'progress'
Pattern 2
Choice is an illusion
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Interface
Agility
Efficiency
Competition
Future Worth
These are powerful
forces ...
Pressure
+efficiency
+agility
+worth
Trickle ...
If you're competing against someone more efficient, agile
and able to create worth ...
... they create pressure
for you to change.
Alas, this pressure...
Quickly mounts up as more adapt
... FloodBecoming a
“Red Queen”
The need to constantly
evolve in order to stand still
relative to a surrounding
ecosystem
Prof.VanValen
This is known as ...
$0
$7,500
$15,000
$22,500
$30,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Analyst Estimates for AWS Revenue
Million
1.5%
+8 yrs
Take Cloud -Yuk.
Look at AWS end
quarter estimates and
then x4 ... annual
forward run rate.
NB. Ben Black
proposed the idea for
EC2 to Bezos in 2003
By End 2011, forward
run rate = 1.5% of
server market.
$0
$7,500
$15,000
$22,500
$30,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Analyst Estimates for AWS Revenue
Million
6%
+10 yrs
By End 2013, forward
run rate = 6% of server
market.
Guess where
end 2016 might
be?
$0
$7,500
$15,000
$22,500
$30,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Analyst Estimates for AWS Revenue
Million
Punctuated
Equilibrium
+3 yrs
40-50%?
This is known
as a ...
Just continue on the
doubling rate ... slows
down a bit later.
Pattern 3
We have Inertia
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Past Success
Inertia
Pass success always
creates inertia to
change ...
Disruption of
Past Norms
Transition to
the New
Agency of the
New
Business Model
Change of business
relationship (loss of
social capital)
Investment in
knowledge capital
Suitability Declining unit value
Loss of existing
financial or physical
capital
cost of acquiring
new skillsets
Lack of second
sourcing options
Data for Past
Success
counteracts
Loss of political
capital
Investment in new
business
relationships
Lack of pricing
competition
Resistance from
rewards and culture
Threat to barriers
to entry
Changes to
governance,
management and
practices
Loss of strategic
control
External financial
markets reinforce
existing models
+Inertia
Lots of different types
of inertia - bit of
research I did back in
2010.
Disruption of
Past Norms
Transition to
the New
Agency of the
New
Business Model
Change of business
relationship (loss of
social capital)
Investment in
knowledge capital
Suitability Declining unit value
Loss of existing
financial or physical
capital
cost of acquiring
new skillsets
Lack of second
sourcing options
Data for Past
Success
counteracts
Loss of political
capital
Investment in new
business
relationships
Lack of pricing
competition
Resistance from
rewards and culture
Threat to barriers
to entry
Changes to
governance,
management
and practices
Loss of strategic
control
External financial
markets reinforce
existing models
+Inertia
Lets look at this
one
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Compute
(Product)
Take an activity ... like
compute ... when it was
a product
Evolution
Compute
(Product)
I'm going to ignore the
value chain bit for a
moment, to make my
diagram easier
Evolution
Novel Practice
(Scale Up)
When compute was a
product we developed novel
architectural PRACTICES
e.g scale-up for capacity, N
+1 for resilience and
disaster recovery tests for
failure testing
Evolution
These spread ...
Evolution
Best Practice
(Scale Up)
... becoming best
practice.
Evolution
Compute
(Utility)
BUT the act of computing
evolved becoming more
of a commodity and
eventually provided as a
utility ...
Evolution
Novel Practice
(Scale Out)
... this enabled novel practices
to appear ... e.g. scale-out for
capacity, "design for failure" for
resiliences, chaos engines (e.g.
monkeys / gorillas) for failure
testing.
Evolution
These spread ...
Evolution
Product
Co-Evolution
Best Practice
Utility
Best Practice
... becoming best
practice.
NB Practices often
co-evolve with the
activity
Evolution
Legacy
Estate
New Estate
"DevOps"
Product
Best Practice
Utility
Best Practice
Legacy means
application built with
best practice for a
PRODUCT WORLD
We gave this a name
'DEVOPS'
New Estate means
application built with
best practice for a
UTILITY WORLD
Evolution
Legacy
Estate
New Estate
"DevOps"
Cost
Product
Best Practice
Utility
Best Practice
We want the benefits of
the new world ... efficiency,
agility, new sources of
worth ...
But there is a 'cost'
of re-architecting.
Pattern 4
Inertia Kills
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
DSC
Online
Photo
Digital
Analog
As images changed from
analog to digital, Kodak
was first in with Digital
Still Cameras and
Online photos
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Digital
Analog
Fulfilment
Inertia
DSC
Online
Photo
... but it's fulfilment
systems created inertia
to the change
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Guess who was first
with video on demand
online and guess who
had shops! Guess who
failed to deal with this.
Pattern 5
Cycles
The economy has ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Peace
As an activity evolves we
get a state of relatively
'peaceful' competition
between big vendors ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Peace
... they build up inertia to
change ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Peace
... the act becomes suitable
for commodity (+ utility)
provision ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
WarPeace
Punctuated
Equilibrium
... a new entrant (not
encumbered by past)
appears, a punctuated
equilibrium occurs and a
state of war with disruption
of those stuck behind
inertia barriers.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Interface
Peace War
Wonder
... also you get an
explosion of higher
order systems (new
sources of worth,
value) ... a time of
wonder.
Peace
War
Wonder
the pattern of wonder,
peace and war occurs
at both macro and
micro scales.
The Age of Electricity
The macro we call
'Ages' ...
... these don't start
with 'innovation'
but ...
G. Westinghouse,
1886
... commoditisation of
a pre-existing act.
Causing an explosion
of higher order
systems ...
Dreams of
magic, a time
of wonder
Creating a time of
wonder ...
Unless you're in the
'old' industry.
Pattern 6
Organisations Evolve
It's not just activities,
practices and data
that evolve ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Interface
Peace War
Wonder
Everytime we go
through a cycle ...
Evolution
Co-Evolution
Best Practice
Best Practice
Product Utility
We have co-evolution
of practice ...
Evolution
Estate
Peace
Product
Best Practice
... which means we
have the old world
with the old estate ...
Evolution
New Estate
Estate
Legacy
Product
Best Practice
Utility
Best Practice
War
... that becomes
legacy whilst a new
estate is formed.
Evolution
DIES
WINS
Utility
Best Practice
War
The old world then dies,
the new world wins ...
which means the new
practices / methods
become dominant.
Evolution
Utility
War
Electricity
Fordism
Hence every cycle
leads to a new form
of organisation.
Evolution
Utility
War
Compute
Next
Generation
Even today.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
We do not open that we
consider a source of differential
advantage
Next Gen
Traditional
Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Neutral Agree
Strongly
Agree
In some respects the
new organisation are
similar to the past ...
0%
20%
40%
60%
Next Gen
Traditional
Strongly
Disagree
Disagree Neutral Agree
Strongly
Agree
Our company deploys an open technology
approach as a means of outmaneouvering
competitors
In others they are
vastly different.
Open source
Resilience
Failure Testing
Infrastructure
Learning
"Big" Data
Culture
Structure
Corporate Focus
Type
Strategy/TacticalOrganisationActivity
Departmental
Inertia
Profit
Cost Reduction
N+1
Disaster Recovery
Analysts
Used
Enterprise Class
Service / Cell
Fluid / Gameable
Disruption
Weapon
Design For Failure
Chaos Engines
Ecosystem
Driven By
Commodity
Traditional Next Generation
Capacity
Deployment
Scale Up
Change Control
Scale-out
Continuous
Technique Single Mixed
Practice
This is the
phenotype
Why?
How to?
So what?
Gameplay
Learning
Now the fun stuff ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Access System
Authentication
Biometric
2 Factor
User / Pwd
Login
Log History
Compute
Physical Servers
Design for
Failure
Authorisation (ACL)
Permission
Monitoring
Recommendation
(VRM)
Capability
(Credentials)
Trust
Rule
Based
(2 way)
Rule
Based
(1 way) User
Reporting
Identity (provider)
Control System
Customer Customer
To play the game you
need to move a
piece ...
Certainty
Ubiquity
Demand
Supply
Competition
Fortunately there are
many ways to
accelerate and
deaccelerate
competition
Certainty
Ubiquity
Demand
Supply
Open
Like Open Source
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
+competition
Open
A
B
Customers
So you can move
pieces on the map ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A
B
Customers
Patents
+competition
... and you can slow
them down.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A
B
Conditions
* Concept
* Suitable
* Technology
* Attitude* Attitude
Customers
FUD
+competition
Through numerous
ways ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A
B
C
+Marketing
Customers
including attempting
to create new
'needs'
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A
B
+Constraints
Customers
... and exploiting
constraints.
The rest of this presentation was
examples of this and how to
exploit the situation. For those
who attended one of the
workshops, a couple of diagrams
for reminders ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Ecosystem
Ecosystems are
force multipliers ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Leverage
Commoditize
Innovate
... if correctly used.
THINK - Innovate,
Leverage, Commoditise
Worth noting
Ecosystems if effectively used are
future sensing engines.
Be first to industrialise
but follow innovation
Uncharted Industrialized
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
First Mover
Fast Follower
In other words, be first
to create the
industrialised service,
allow others to
innovate on top and
mine consumption data.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
A1
A2
Ecosystem
Tower
Moat
B1 B2
C1 C2
Don't forget to exploit
competitors - Tower &
Moat.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
+competition
+competition
+competitionSince everything
evolves ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Where?
You have multiple
'where' to attack
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Platform
Why?
Mapping can tell you
why one where over
another.
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Platform
Compute
Platform Utility
Compute
Utility
Co-evolved
management
tools and
practice
(Devops)
Physical Server
Server OS
Guest OS
New
Applications
(Developers)
2008
This can have a
powerful effect
The only people who
can map a business
are people within the
business.
No consultants
Remember ...
ValueChain
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
VisibleInvisible
Online Photo
Storage
Data Centre
Power
Payment
Web Site
Platform
Fotango
CRM
Online Image
Manipulation
Compute
Map
Precision
Due to ...
Marquis De Condorcet,
1785
"each member of a voting group
is more likely than not to
make a correct decision,
the probability that the highest
vote of the group is the correct
decision increases as the
number of members of
the group increases"
Wisdom of the Crowd
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible On the issue of
predictability ...
Uncharted Industrialized
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Peace War
A2
B1
A1 A5A3 A4
CompetitionWhat?
What!
What!
When?
When!
When!
Some things are,
some things
aren't ...
There appears to exist an
uncertainty principle in the
economic cycle whereby
p(what) + p(when) ≈ 1
Not confirmed,
but ...
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
fitness function
fitness function
Cells
Aptitude
(finance + marketing)
Unit (fitness function)
We didn't get to
organisation ...
... maps help with
cell based
structures ...
Aptitude
(finance + engineering)
Uncharted Industrialized
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
fitness function
fitness function
Cells
Attitude?
Attitude?
Unit (fitness function)
but there's an
issue of attitude ...
Uncharted Industrialized
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
fitness function
fitness function
Cells
Unit (fitness function)
... that allows for
new forms of
organisation
Pioneers
Settlers
Town Planners
Attitude
Uncharted Industrialized
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
fitness function
fitness function
Cells
Pioneers
Settlers
Town Planners
Unit (fitness function)
Attitude
+ Aptitude
(finance + engineering)
Cell has
+ Attitude
(Town Planning)
+ Fitness Function
... for example ...
Uncharted Industrialized
Genesis Custom
Built
Product
(+ rental)
Commodity
(+ utility)
Evolution
ValueChainVisibleInvisible
Competition
Steals from Steals from
Unit (fitness function)
... that solve
evolution by theft.
+situational awareness
Units
+fitness functions
+fitness functions
Cells
(aptitude &
attitude)
Units Units
Executive
Attitude Attitude Attitude
Chief
Pioneer
Chief Settler
Chief Town
Planner
Finance
Engineering
Operations
Marketing
+fitness functions
+populate
+fitness functions
steal from
3 x Cultures +enforces evolution
Work
+populate
Preparation
Aptitude
Cells
(aptitude &
attitude)
Leading to ...
@swardley

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