The document discusses several topics related to global energy security including: - Types of energy sources and factors affecting energy reserves and consumption around the world - Issues with energy supply and demand in regions like Europe, Asia, and Africa - Threats to energy security including dependency on imports, political instability, and human/physical factors - Examples of disruptions to energy supplies between Russia and Europe - Options for increasing energy supply and the impacts of developing resources like Canada's oil sands

1. ENERGY SECURITY

2. ENERGY SUPPLY, DEMAND AND SECURITY

3. ENERGY SOURCES Renewable energy source : Energy source capable of natural regeneration on a human time scale E.g. solar power, wind power Non-renewable energy source Energy source that is finite on a human time scale Once exhausted, it can only be replaced over considerable periods of geological time E.g. coal, natural gas Recyclable energy source Reprocessed energy E.g. uranium in nuclear fission can be used repeatedly Primary energy Energy found in natural resources I.e. original sources of energy – including renewable and non-renewable Secondary energy Primary energy that has been converted to a more convenient form E.g. electricity

4. DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY RESERVES Russia and Eastern Europe High reserves of natural gas and coal Amongst top ten countries for oil and uranium Energy surplus Europe Dependent on energy imports Low energy efficiency – high wastefulness Lack of fossil fuel supply Energy insecurity Middle East Large oil reserves Unstable regimes affecting fossil fuel supply Energy surplus

5. DISTRIBUTION OF ENERGY RESERVES CONTD. North America Large coal resources Opportunity to exploit oil reserves in Arctic, Antarctic and other sensitive areas Huge energy consumption – outweighs supplies Energy insecurity Asia (excluding Russia) Large coal and uranium reserves Rapidly increasing demand – outweighs supplies Energy insecurity Sub-Saharan Africa Dependency on foreign TNCs to exploit supply, e.g. oil in Nigeria Energy Poverty

6. PHYSICAL FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY RESERVES Climate E.g. the need to keep cool in hot countries, by way of air conditioning, significantly increases energy consumption in these countries Availability E.g. geology determines availability of oil and coal Local variations E.g. cloud cover and wind speed affect availability of solar and wind energy Solar variations E.g. stronger sun and longer sunshine hours along equator, therefore more potential for solar energy

7. HUMAN FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY RESERVES Energy infrastructure E.g. in LDCs, the infrastructure often doesn’t exist to extract energy reserves such as oil Energy affordability E.g. in some parts of the world where modern forms of energy are available, many people cannot afford to use it Cultural preferences E.g. tradition keeps people using traditional forms of energy such as open coal fires for heating

8. GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY Energy Security The extent to which an affordable, reliable and stable energy supply can be achieved Factors affecting energy security Natural hazards Political instability Dependency on imports Range of energy sources used Costs of energy

9. FACTORS AFFECTING UK’S ENERGY SECURITY Gas availability Diminishing North sea gas, expected to run out within 50 years In 2004, over 90% of the UK’s gas supply was produced in the UK In 2020, the gas supply from the UK is predicted to be less than 10%, with 20% expected to be imported from Norway, 40% from Europe (excluding Norway) and the rest from other parts of the world Lead to decreasing political power of UK and increasing political power of gas rich nations, e.g. Russia (supplies 30% of European gas) Oil availability Volatile oil prices Potential for political instability between UK and oil producing states Reached peak oil production in USA in 1970 Many argue global peak oil was reached in 2006 Global warming and renewable energy concerns Restrictions on over use of coal for energy Limited amount of sun for solar panels Concerns over nuclear safety and waste plus cost of building of nuclear plants

10. GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION Factors leading to increased energy consumption Population increase Improved standards of living Industrialisation / economic development Rural to urban migration Future trends Increasing power usage in China and India Western Europe more energy efficient Energy consumption in developing world expected to double by 2050 Energy consumption in developed world expected to increase by 1/3 by 2050 Energy consumption of developed and developing world expected to be equal by 2050

11. CHINA’S ENERGY SECURITY Energy consumption parallels that of its economic development – it has more than quadrupled since 1980. Energy Secure China is the biggest producer of coal in the world, and relies on coal for 70% of its electricity generation. The country also has large oil fields and controls 3% of the world’s oil reserves. Though no longer self sufficient, can afford to import oil, predominantly from the Middle East. Also relies on renewable energy; HEP (including the Three Gorges Dam) accounts for 16% of its energy production and therefore are plans to build HEP dams on all major rivers in China.

12. CHINA’S ENERGY SECURITY CONTD. Energy Insecure Dependency on coal – vulnerable to global warming sanctions. Chinese government being pressure to find alternatives to coal in order to reduce its level of pollution and contribution to climate change. China’s largest oil fields have now peaked and some say that oil will run out within two decades. Oil deposits in the Tarim Basin, in the west of China, are difficult and expensive to exploit, due to its remote location and difficult geology. China’s deepwater exploration for oil may be threatened by political conflict with Vietnam and the Philippines. HEP: natural hazards are a major threat to dams, and after the Sichuan earthquake, plans for extensive construction of dams may be reconsidered Natural gas: very expensive and difficult to build pipelines from gas fields in Western China while liquefied gas is in short supply

13. THE IMPACTS OF ENERGY INSECURITY

14. ENERGY PATHWAYS Energy pathway The flows of energy from producer to consumer Oil pathways Middle East exports the most oil – approximately 4000 barrels to Japan, 3000 to Europe and 2000 to North America Former Soviet Union exports almost 7000 barrels South America exports approximately 2,500 barrels to USA Europe exports just 408 barrels – to North America Gas pathways Main gas pathway is trans-Siberian pipeline from Russia to Eastern Europe New gas pipeline planned to transport gas from the Middle East to Eastern Europe to decrease dependency on Russia

15. ENERGY PATHWAYS CONTD. Factors which make energy pathways vulnerable Geopolitical connections between countries (Ukraine-Russia) War – e.g. Gulf war, Iraq war Strikes by energy workers Damaged infrastructure from natural disasters Disintegration of infrastructure (e.g. pipelines) Terrorism

16. DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: RUSSIA AND EUROPE Russia and Ukraine Gas Dispute In November / December 2004, Ukraine’s government changed. This government had pro-Western policies as opposed to pro-Russian policies. As a result, Russia quadrupled the price of its gas to Ukraine and the government of Ukraine refused to pay. Gazprom (51% owned by Russian government) cut of the gas to Ukraine.

17. DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: RUSSIA AND EUROPE CONTD. Europe’s dependency on Russia Russia supplies a large proportion of Europe’s gas, and most of this is piped through Ukraine. When Gazprom stopped supplying gas to Ukraine, the flow of gas to the rest of Europe fell by 40% in some areas Countries that rely on Russian gas could suffer economically if gas is cut Europe’s energy security Gazprom relies on income from gas exports to Europe Russian gas was stable even during the Cold war New pipelines planned which bypass Ukraine and Blarus South Caucus pipeline will bring gas from Azerbaijan to Europe via Turkey Europe looking alternative energy sources

18. DISRUPTING ENERGY SUPPLIES: RUSSIA AND EUROPE CONTD. South Stream Pipeline Proposed gas pipeline owned by Gazprom Aims deliver gas from central Asia and Russia to central Europe and Italy through the Balkans Will rival the proposed Nabucco pipeline, owned by the EU to deliver gas to Eastern Europe EU believe that Russia aims to use their gas supplies for political power and to outcompete the Nabucco pipeline

19. LOOKING FOR MORE ENERGY Canada’s oil sands Oil sands are thick slurry composed of sand, water and type of oil called bitumen Largest reserves of oil sands are in Alberta in Canada; produced a million barrels of oil per day in 2003 and plan to produce 5 million barrels a day by 2030 Costs of exploiting oil sands Expensive to extract oil Very energy intensive and a large source of greenhouse gas emissions – conventional oil production requires much less energy Very water intensive – 2 to 5 barrels of water to produce every barrel of oil Environmental impacts – removal of trees, shrubs and soil

20. LOOKING FOR MORE ENERGY: CANADA’S OIL SANDS Benefits Provide an alternative source of oil when other conventional soruces are unavailable for political or access reasons Could meet 16% of North America’s demand for oil by 2030 Additional source of oil until more renewable sources are developed / implemented Benefits Canadian economy – accounted for 20% of total exports in 2007

21. ENERGY PLAYERS Cartel An association of producers or suppliers Formed to monopolise the production and distribution of a product to control prices E.g. Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Advantages of cartels for producers Able to collectively control supply and therefore global prices Maximises profits of producers – when state owned, also GDP Political power – e.g. Yom Kippur war oil embargo where OPEC cut off supply to USA so they would stop supporting Israel Disadvantages of cartels for producers To ensure oil prices remain high, supply must be relatively low, meaning overall income is limited Advantages of cartels for consumers Aim of cartel is to have stable prices – increases reliability for consumer Disadvantages of cartels for consumers Commodity traders cannot control prices Political instability / conflict may affect supply Highest prices

22. ENERGY SECURITY AND THE FUTURE

23. GLOBAL ENERGY UNCERTAINTIES Factors contributing to global energy uncertainties Future performance of global economy Scale of global population growth Impact of rising living standards Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves Discovery of new energy technologies Scale of possible witch to renewable energies Possible contribution of ‘unconventional’ oil sources Emergent economies energy demands

24. RESPONSES TO INCREASING ENERGY DEMANDS Business as usual Do nothing – fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy worldwide Benefits No investment needed in renewable energy Costs 55% increase in global energy related C02 emissions by 2030 Emissions from electricity generation will account for 44% of global emissions by 2030 Multi-energy solution Meeting future energy demands from a mixture of renewable, recyclable and non-renewable sources Benefits Reduces CO2 emissions as a result of clean energy production Costs Expensive to invest in renewable / recyclable energy Nuclear energy controversial – nuclear waste and safety of plants

25. RESPONSES TO INCREASING ENERGY DEMANDS CONTD. Energy conservation Decreasing the amount of energy used Benefits Decrease global energy related CO2 emissions Extends time that fossil fuels can be used Costs Likely to inhibit growth of developing countries Requires large investment from governments globally

26. NUCLEAR ENERGY IN FRANCE Benefits 75% of electricity generated from nuclear power – helps to meet high energy demand Largest exporter of electricity from nuclear power – increases GDP Low levels of CO2 per capita Helps meet targets set by Copenhagen summit Environmentalists view (James Lovelock): Amount of uranium needed is significantly less than coal and oil (small bottle of uranium = 200 tonnes of oil) Amount of nuclear waste is minimal unlike 700 tonnes of CO2 produced by fossil fuels Nuclear far cheaper while oil / coal prices will increase Costs Nuclear waste sent to Normandy for reprocessing – 97% recycled and 3% stored and disposed Land needs to cleared to build plants – visual pollution Danger of nuclear disaster (Chernobyl, 1986) Expensive - €15 billion for nuclear waste disposal Fear of terrorists getting hold of nuclear energy

27. NUCLEAR ENERGY IN CUMBRIA Benefits Employment – 10,000 employees, 90% from West Cumbria Attracts investment Increases local income and therefore council spending Costs Radioactive waste Reliance on one industry – dangerous if it closes Dangerous – 21 serious incidents of accidents between 1950 and 2000 Some waste dumped in Irish sea – Irish government pressuring Sellafield to close Visual pollution – damages tourist industry

28. WIND POWER Benefits Wind is free – low efficiency is unimportant as it doesn’t coast to harness it and it is an infinite resource Wind turbines save 4 million tonnes of carbon annually Costs Low efficiency – only 30% of energy harnessed in comparison with 60% for coal powered plants Unreliable – power generated can double one day to the next – may not always meet demand so need fossil fuels as backup Long process to build wind farms – must be approved by government, councils, locals etc. Expensive to build wind turbines – price will increase as less efficient sites will have to be used (efficient sites already used) Environmentalist’s point of view (James Lovelock again): ‘ Far too late’ for renewable energy 1 nuclear station = 3000 wind turbines On-shore wind farms damage farmland that will be needed to grow food Ruins aesthetic (visual pollution) Inefficient

29. ENERGY CONFLICTS Terrorist attack on Abqaiq oil processing plant Al Qaida terrorists tried to take over Abqaiq oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia Attempted to drive vehicles loaded with explosives into the compound Two hour gun battle between officials and terrorists Two terrorists and two guards killed but no damage to plant US invasion of Iraq – possible reasons Saddam Husain was considered a threat to the security of Western oil supplies in Middle East – by 2003 he was making deals with Russian and Chinese oil companies Iran as an energy power 3 rd largest oil reserves and 2 nd largest natural gas reserves Japan and China both import 13% of their oil from Iran Alliances developing between Moscow, Tehran and Beijing – energy exports from Russia and Iran in exchange for Chinese goods

30. RADICAL NEW APPROACHES Kyoto protocol Agreements for MDCs to cut emissions and for NICs to monitor emissions Benefits Long term agreement to reduce global CO2 emissions Problems NICs such as China and India had no obligation beyond monitoring and reporting emissions USA didn’t sign protocol Cap and trade scheme (2007) Government sets a limit (cap) on carbon emissions – carbon emissions not used can be sold as credits to companies that produce over the limit Benefits Limits emissions in the private sector Financial motivation for companies to use less energy credits so they sell them Costs Companies can continue releasing high emissions by buying energy credits from lower polluting companies

31. RADICAL NEW APPROACHES CONTD. Green taxes In the UK, vehicle exercise duties (VED) tax vehicles according to their level of CO2 emissions Other taxes include fuel tax and aviation tax Benefits Encourages less polluting vehicles to be used Problems Those who can afford the VED may use pollution vehicles anyway Combined heat and power (CHP) Captures and regulates the waste heat produced in electricity generation Benefits Cuts emissions Increases efficiency of electricity generation Can use biofuels Costs Predominantly uses fossil fuels Expensive