2. What is this topic about?
• Energy is fundamental to our
lives, and we often take it for
granted
• This topic explores our energy
supply, and asks challenging
questions about it
• Can we continue to rely on
fossil fuels, or do we need a
radical switch in energy
sources?
• Energy is very closely linked to
climate change as fossil fuels
(our main energy source) are
the main source of greenhouse
gas emissions.
3. CONTENTS
1. Energy supply, demand and
security
2. The impacts of energy insecurity
3. Energy security and the future
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4. 1. Energy supply, demand
and security
There are a wide range of energy resources, with different security of
supply and environmental issues:
Non-renewable Renewable Recyclable
A finite stock of resources, A flow of resources, which Can be used repeatedly,
which will run out is infinite in human terms if managed carefully
Coal, oil, gas (plus oil shale, Wind, solar, hydroelectric, Biomass, nuclear (with
tar sands, lignite etc.) wave, tidal, geothermal reprocessing of fuel)
•Significant environmental •May require large areas •Large land area needed
impacts during extraction (solar arrays, wind farms) for biomass.
(oil wells, opencast mines) for operation. •Largely unresolved issues
•Greenhouse gas emissions •NIMBY issues. of storing high level
during use, and acidic •Limited / no greenhouse radioactive waste.
emissions emissions.
5. Life cycle analysis
Life cycle analysis accounts for
C02 emissions at all stages
of the energy supply chain, not
simply during use
• Comparing the environmental impact of
different energy sources is a challenge
• Life cycle greenhouse emissions is one
approach
• Even this does not account for NIMBY
issues (e.g. windfarms), or the loss of
ecosystems and biodiversity linked to
extraction of fossil fuels
• Some sources, such as nuclear and biomass
are highly controversial and there is
intense debate over their ‘green’
credentials.
6. Access to energy
• Direct access to fossil fuel
reserves is a coincidence of
geological history and
international boundaries.
• Some countries find themselves
with more fossil fuel sources
than their needs
• Others have none
• Reserves run down over time, as
is the gas with the UK’s once
abundant North Sea oil and gas
• Remaining oil and gas will
increasingly concentrate in the
Middle East over the next 30
years.
Top 15 countries by oil, gas and
coal reserves in 2008
7. Access to renewables
• Most renewable energy is constrained by
physical geography, and especially climate
• This means its availability is place specific UK renewable potential
• The UK has significant renewable potential,
especially wind, although it is a small
country with limited land area; most HEP
sites are already used.
• Many renewables are intermittent energy
sources, so energy must be stored (very
costly and technically difficult) or backed
up by another source
Source Physical limitations
Wind Requires wind speeds of 8-25 mph
Solar PV Works best in areas of over 6 kwh
per sq. metre per day
Biomass Requires large land area for
feedstock
HEP Suitable valleys i.e. long, deep and
relatively narrow, and predictable
water supply
8. Access to energy
• Which energy sources are used is not simply a matter of which
fossil fuels or renewable forms are available in a country
• Other factors influence choice of energy sources
• Cost is critical, as people are sensitive to energy sources
• Nuclear power station construction ground to a standstill after
the 1986 Chernobyl accident.
9. Energy poverty
• Lack of access to energy resources is common in the developing world
• Reliance of fuel wood, farm waste and dung is high and fossil fuel
consumption low
• Up to 40% of the world’s population rely on these sources as their
primary cooking and heating fuel
• Close to 2 billion people have no access to electricity
• Access to cheap, reliable energy is strongly related to development as
so much of ‘modern’ life and industry depends on it.
10. Demand
• Global demand for energy
has risen dramatically,
especially since the 1960s
• Demand doubled between
1960 and 1980
• Growth in demand has been
slower since 1980, but is
projected to rise by up to
60% between 2002 and 2030
and continue upward.
• The BRIC countries, as well
as other large developing
nations (Mexico, Indonesia)
have contributed to much to
recent increases in demand
and are likely to do so in the
future.
• Further industrialisation
inevitably brings demands for
cars and consumer goods, all
of which need power.
11. Security
• Energy security depends on
a number of factors (see
table)
• Countries with a diverse Domestic fossil Domestic renewable
energy ‘mix’ are less at risk fuel reserves potential
than those relying on 1 or 2
sources Countries like Italy and Small, crowded nations like
Japan have few of their Singapore and South Korea
• Renewable potential could own resources lack renewable potential
be used to offset declining
fossil fuel reserves or Domestic energy Import pathway
mix risk
supply interruptions
• Reliance on long distance France relies heavily on The UK imports gas from
international trade in fossil nuclear power, and the Russia and Qatar, both long
UK on gas. distance pathways.
fuels may be risky
• Demand and dependency
are important too, as it is
difficult to replace a large
amount of oil with another
energy source for instance
12. 2. The impacts of energy insecurity
• Fossil fuel supply regions are
poorly matched with areas of
largest demand
• This is especially true for oil
and gas
• Energy must flow along
international pathways from
producer to consumer
• These are either pipelines
(oil and gas), bulk carriers
(coal, uranium), LNG tankers
(gas) or oil tankers.
Electricity is also exported /
imported.
• Pathways could be
disrupted, increasing energy
insecurity.
13. Risks of disruption
• Gas pipeline disruption has already occurred, as disputes between Russia
and Ukraine disrupted European gas supplies in 2006 and 2009
• Russia holds 25% of world gas reserves, the Middle East 40% (and 56% of
oil)
• Disruption to narrow ocean choke points (see map) could seriously affect
the flow of oil
• Countries close to some choke points are unstable (Iran, Somalia, Yemen)
14. Risks of disruption
• There are real risks if oil and gas UK energy disruption
supplies are disrupted.
Oct Oil crisis; petrol
• Any potential disruption is 1973 rationing
headline news
Sept UK wide fuel protests
• So dependent are we on cheap,
2000 over price and tax
uninterrupted energy supplies that
disruption could lead to: Aug Further UK protests;
2005 Hurricane Katrina pushes
1. Soaring energy costs and rising
oil prices higher
energy poverty
2. Pressure on politicians to act; Aug Oil at $147 a barrel
possibly rationing energy 2008
3. Civil disruption Jan National Grid ‘gas
4. Rising costs for industry, job losses 2010 balancing alerts’ are
and recession headline news ; gas
supply from Norway
5. Unsound decisions (economically drops on technical
and environmentally) to rapidly problems
develop alternative sources
6. Diplomatic conflict
15. Supply: new sources
• As oil prices remain high, and fears of ‘peak oil and gas’ increase the
search is on for new sources:
Example Source Technical challenge Environmental
impacts
Canadian Bitumen combined MODERATE HIGH
(Athabasca) with sand / rock Strip mining or extraction by Energy intensive extraction
tar sands under boreal forests; steam; gas is used to heat and destruction of
close to surface the sands and extract oil. ecosystems
Arctic oil Conventional oil in LOW MODERATE
fragile wilderness Conventional drilling and Fragile environment but
region, both on and extraction; Arctic oil has production has relatively
offshore been taken from Prudhoe small footprint
Bay for decades.
West of Conventional oil in HIGH LOW
Shetland, deep ocean water Production began in 1997, Low risk of spills and
Foinaven field but using ‘floating’ rigs limited impact on sea bed
USA (Green Bitumen encased in MODERATE HIGH
River) oil solid rock Opencast mining, then can Large areas mined, scarring
shale be directly burnt or heated landscape and energy
to drive off oil. intensive production
16. Viable alternatives?
• The chart below shows the estimates oil price required for each
energy resource to be competitive with oil and gas without any form
of State support or subsidy
Economic viability of energy sources
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
European biodiesel
USA Corn ethanol
Sugar cane ethanol
Tar sands
Coal to liquids
Oil Shale
Deep water oil
Conventional Oil other
Conventional Oil Middle East
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Oil price US$
Source: the FT 2009
17. Players
• The diagram below summarises the role of some key players in the energy
supply
18. Big oil: TNCs and OPEC
‘Supermajor’ TNCs State owned oil giants • Supermajor and
Total Fr Saudi Aramco Saudi Arabia other oil and gas
TNCs control most
BP UK Gazprom Russia
oil and gas
Shell UK/Nl CNPC China extraction,
Chevron USA Petrobras Brazil refining and
distribution.
ExxonMobil USA NOIC Iran
• State owned oil
ConocoPhilips USA PDVSA Venezuela companies own /
control access to
95% of world oil
and gas reserves
• OPEC is
effectively a price
control cartel,
with considerable
power.
19. 3. Energy security and the future
• There are several key
uncertainties relating to
energy futures:
• Future demand is uncertain –
it partly depends on future
population and economic
growth
• The lifespan of fossil fuel
reserves, especially oil, is
unknown
• The extent to which we
exploit unconventional oil
(see image)
• The extent and timing of
switching from fossil fuel to
renewables is uncertain.
• Peak oil and gas are
important; after peak
production prices can only
rise.
20. The nuclear option?
• Opinion is divided over whether
Advantages Disadvantages
nuclear power is the answer
•Fuel sources (see •Public distrust.
• It provides about 15% of the
map) •High initial cost.
world’s electricity, but only 2% of •Low life cycle •Long build times.
all energy needs carbon emissions. •High level waste
• There are over 400 reactors in 30 •Constant power disposal.
countries, but few currently output •Fears of terrorism.
•Takes up little •Nuclear
being built space . proliferation.
•Large power output •Technically
per plant challenging
21. Biofuels?
• Biofuels have the advantage of
being flexible liquids
• As such they can replace diesel
(biodiesel) and petrol (bio-
ethanol)
• However, they require food
crops as feedstocks (sugar cane,
maize etc)
• This means land that could be
used for food.
• In 2007-08 explosive growth of
biofuel crop area was blamed for Future biofuels might not use
pushing up global food prices food crops:
• Biofuels are not carbon neutral, 1st generation – food crops
2nd generation – crop wastes
because of the energy used in
3rd generation – algae
farming, transport and refining.
22. Geopolitics
• There are a number of sources of tension, both present and future,
related to energy security and the threat of insecurity:
Scenario Explanation Consequences
Oil hits $100 •Sustained oil price of over $100 per •Prolonged economic recession
barrel, for several years. and rising fuel poverty in OECD
countries
Middle East •Tensions in the Gulf escalate into war •Interruption of oil and gas flows;
between Muslim factions; possibly rising prices; tension between
meltdown involving Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Turkey China and USA to secure oil supply
and others.
The nuclear •Wholesale shifting towards nuclear to •Power stations become ‘soft
replace fossil fuels, leads to global spread targets’ for terrorism; enriched
option of nuclear power and technology uranium and depleted plutonium
get into the wrong hands….
Energy •The Gulf States hold 60%+ of oil reserves •Energy superpowers begin to
and Russia/Qatar/ Iran 60%+ of gas; the ‘name their price’ and take care
superpowers world has not shifted to renewables. of their friends; major
geopolitical shifts
Arctic attack •Canada, Russia, USA and EU begin to •A war or words over who has the
exploit the Arctic for oil and gas, but right to exploit what, quickly
without clear delineation of territorial becomes a new cold war – possibly
areas. a hot one……
23. Future challenges
• What are our energy Mix it up Technology for all
•Wind, solar and others can be
challenges in 2010? used to diversify energy
•Aid could be used to help
developing nations grow their
There are some that sources. renewable sectors
are obvious: •This would increase security, •Intermediate technology is
• Reduce dependency but could also reduce key to this.
greenhouse emissions.
on fossil fuels to •They need energy, but
increase energy without greenhouse emissions.
security Tax it down Self generation
• Increase renewable •Green taxes i.e. taxing fossil •Homes can generate
fuel use, could encourage renewable energy using ground
energy use as fossil efficiency source heat pumps, micro-
fuels become more wind and solar PV / thermal
•Greenhouse emissions would
expensive / peak fall as efficiency rises •This would diversify the
• Reduce greenhouse energy mix, reduce emissions
•The dirtiest fuels could be and increase self-reliance.
gas emissions taxed the most.
• Increase access to
energy in developing
nations
