Over the next quarter century, the international order is likely to change considerably. A new geopolitical and macroeconomic context will necessitate a flexible strategy to maximise India's national interest.
In this Discussion Document, an analytical framework is developed to visualise possible New World Orders at the intersection of two axes. The first axis represents five possible geopolitical trends, organised by the degree of global polarity. The second axis represents four geoeconomic trends, based on the degree of growth, automation, trade, and labour movements.
In each scenario, the proposed strategies to maximise India's national interest are determined. The most frequently-occurring strategies are used to develop an agenda that will hold India in good stead, regardless of how the world shapes up.
Domestic Economic Reforms
Liberalise major sectors, implement labour and factor market reforms. Be an attractive destination for FDI.
Focus on the employment elasticity of growth in addition to growth itself. Collaborate with foreign universities for skilling the workforce.
Build a social security net to deal with inequality, unemployment, skill obsolescence, and an aging population.
Reforms for India’s engagement with the world at large.
Three critical military shifts needed: from land to sea, from the physical to the virtual (cyberwarfare); and from manpower to firepower.
Champion the cause of globalisation as movement of labour, goods, and services is critical for India’s growth.
Retain flexibility in terms of alignment: be open to larger partnerships and global projects, as well as unilateral action.
Partner with other middle powers, especially those concerned by G2 dominance.
The document discusses Pakistan's foreign policy and geostrategic environment. It notes that Pakistan's foreign policy is shaped by factors like its geography, regional environment, economy, and rivalry with India. While India poses a security threat, opportunities exist from China's CPEC investment and NATO withdrawing from Afghanistan. Pakistan aims to balance relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, diversify its economy beyond CPEC, and play a role in Afghan reconciliation talks.
India and China have had a long relationship but also border disputes that have led to military conflicts, including the 1962 Sino-Indian War over Aksai Chin and the border between the two countries. The border is disputed in several areas such as Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin, which China claims as part of Tibet. These disputes have continued to cause tensions between the two neighboring nuclear powers despite their long history and economic ties.
This document discusses the U.S. Asia-Pacific policy and its importance in the region. It outlines key alliances the U.S. has with countries like Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and others. It also discusses China's growing economic and military influence in the region through initiatives like the China economic corridor, and the conflicts that arise between U.S. and Chinese interests and policies in Asia-Pacific. The document provides an overview of the topic and highlights findings on U.S. and Chinese foreign policies, as well as suggestions on maintaining cooperation between the two powers.
1) The document outlines the key principles of India's foreign policy, including the promotion of world peace, anti-colonialism, anti-racialism, non-alignment, and the Panchsheel principles.
2) It discusses India's objectives in foreign policy such as protecting national interests, strengthening ties with neighbors and major powers, and reforming international organizations like the UN.
3) India aims to ensure regional stability and counter terrorism while strengthening economic and strategic cooperation internationally.
Geopolitics and geostrategy dynamics in asia pacific region amidst covid 19Sampe Purba
this presentation showing how the BRI - Belt Road Initiative of PRC is a game changer in Asia Pacific major actors. Renaming of Pacific command to be Indo Pacific command by US reflecting the shifting of center of gravity in the region
The document discusses the foreign policy of the United States in three phases: before 1945, after 1945, and after 9/11. It outlines the major objectives and instruments of US foreign policy in each phase. Before 1945, the US pursued isolationism and focused on security, promoting ethical values, and individual liberty. After 1945, it abandoned isolationism due to the bipolar world, military developments, and ideological differences. It expanded alliances, provided foreign aid, used sanctions, pursued open markets and free trade. After 9/11, countering terrorism became a major focus, through objectives like bringing terrorists to justice and promoting democracy.
The document discusses Pakistan's foreign policy and geostrategic environment. It notes that Pakistan's foreign policy is shaped by factors like its geography, regional environment, economy, and rivalry with India. While India poses a security threat, opportunities exist from China's CPEC investment and NATO withdrawing from Afghanistan. Pakistan aims to balance relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran, diversify its economy beyond CPEC, and play a role in Afghan reconciliation talks.
India and China have had a long relationship but also border disputes that have led to military conflicts, including the 1962 Sino-Indian War over Aksai Chin and the border between the two countries. The border is disputed in several areas such as Arunachal Pradesh and Aksai Chin, which China claims as part of Tibet. These disputes have continued to cause tensions between the two neighboring nuclear powers despite their long history and economic ties.
This document discusses the U.S. Asia-Pacific policy and its importance in the region. It outlines key alliances the U.S. has with countries like Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and others. It also discusses China's growing economic and military influence in the region through initiatives like the China economic corridor, and the conflicts that arise between U.S. and Chinese interests and policies in Asia-Pacific. The document provides an overview of the topic and highlights findings on U.S. and Chinese foreign policies, as well as suggestions on maintaining cooperation between the two powers.
1) The document outlines the key principles of India's foreign policy, including the promotion of world peace, anti-colonialism, anti-racialism, non-alignment, and the Panchsheel principles.
2) It discusses India's objectives in foreign policy such as protecting national interests, strengthening ties with neighbors and major powers, and reforming international organizations like the UN.
3) India aims to ensure regional stability and counter terrorism while strengthening economic and strategic cooperation internationally.
Geopolitics and geostrategy dynamics in asia pacific region amidst covid 19Sampe Purba
this presentation showing how the BRI - Belt Road Initiative of PRC is a game changer in Asia Pacific major actors. Renaming of Pacific command to be Indo Pacific command by US reflecting the shifting of center of gravity in the region
The document discusses the foreign policy of the United States in three phases: before 1945, after 1945, and after 9/11. It outlines the major objectives and instruments of US foreign policy in each phase. Before 1945, the US pursued isolationism and focused on security, promoting ethical values, and individual liberty. After 1945, it abandoned isolationism due to the bipolar world, military developments, and ideological differences. It expanded alliances, provided foreign aid, used sanctions, pursued open markets and free trade. After 9/11, countering terrorism became a major focus, through objectives like bringing terrorists to justice and promoting democracy.
Lecture no. 10 foreign policy, models of decision making, and domestic influ...Dildar Ali
Foreign policy is how a state interacts with other states and international actors. It is influenced by both internal factors like a country's geography, leadership, and public opinion, as well as external factors like the international system and other states. The foreign policy process involves decision making, which can follow rational, organizational, or bargaining models. Individual leaders and groups also influence decisions through psychological biases or pursuing their interests. A country's diplomats, interest groups, public, military, and legislature all shape its foreign policy choices.
Objectives and instruments of Foreign Policy Austin Trantham
This document provides instructions for a POL 403 class assignment where students must write their own foreign policy statement using two objectives and two instruments. It outlines several topics that could be addressed in the statement, such as priorities, roles, instruments, and resources. It also lists potential foreign policy objectives like power, peace, and prosperity as well as instruments like national security intelligence, diplomacy, military force, and economic statecraft.
The document discusses the key geo-strategic, geo-political, and geo-economic determinants that shape Pakistan's foreign policy. It outlines Pakistan's relations with major countries including the US, China, India, Afghanistan, and countries in the Middle East. Pakistan's strategic location and history with India, as well as its religious heritage and economic needs, are some of the main factors that influence its foreign policy goals of ensuring national security, peace in the region, and balanced diplomatic relations.
Today, India has a very strong position in world politics. Authority of the country on the world stage continues to grow seriously, as evidenced by its inclusion in the "twenty", talks on granting the country a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, etc. From the outset, in India the main real strategic goal of foreign policy was determined to transform the country into a world power. This problem is fundamental to the country's foreign policy for over 60 years.
This is a slide-set that I had used for a workshop conducted by the Indian School of Business on the Indo-Pacific on July 30, 2021.
It discusses the evolution of the US Indo-Pacific strategy and China's perceptions and policy responses.
Though the worst intelligence failure, the USA took maximum advantage of the 9/11 tragedy and embarked on the mission to accomplish the objectives set forth in the infamous neo-con paper, known as the American Century.
America employed all its -military, diplomatic and financial, to wage a war of terror on several countries besides Afghanistan-its starting point.
Whether it was a stellar success or a dismal failure, it has cost the world massively in terms of loss of human lives, financial losses, refugees crises, missed opportunities, and surprisingly, increased global terrorism
This presentation covers all these issues in greater detail
intro duction of freign policy of pakistan,foreign policy of pakistan with u.s.a,foreign policy of pakistan with china,foreign policy of pakistan with russia,foreign policy of pakistan with central asian countries..
The document discusses US-China foreign policy relations and decision making processes. It examines the relationship between the two countries across several issues including security, currency exchange, financial matters, and human rights. It also analyzes cultural differences between China and the US that influence their relationship, as well as political ideologies like neoconservatism that shape US foreign policy approaches toward China. Containment versus engagement strategies for China's rise are also debated. Overall, the relationship remains complex due to differing political systems between the US and China.
The document discusses the geopolitical competition over Central Asia referred to as the "New Great Game". It summarizes that Central Asia has significant hydrocarbon resources and strategic geographic position that has made it an area of competition between major powers like the US, Russia, and China. The document outlines each country's interests in the region and major pipeline projects that have geopolitical significance for transporting oil and gas from Central Asia, but also notes challenges and delays that have prevented some proposed projects from being realized.
Pakistan has pursued different foreign policy approaches throughout its history based on changing geopolitical circumstances. Initially, it explored friendly relations with all countries after independence. It then aligned with Western countries during the Cold War, joining organizations like SEATO and CENTO. From the 1960s, Pakistan transitioned to bilateral relations and non-alignment. It supported Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion and improved ties with the US. Following the Cold War, Pakistan pursued a nuclear program while dealing with insurgencies in Kashmir and Afghanistan. Since 9/11, Pakistan has played an active but difficult role in counterterrorism efforts while seeking to maintain relations with the US, China, and other countries.
Shanghai cooperation organization And Pakistan Hans Raj
The document discusses Pakistan joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full member in 2017. The SCO is an intergovernmental organization composed of China, Russia, and several Central Asian countries. Pakistan had been an observer since 2005 but was granted full membership to strengthen its relationship with China and increase trade and economic cooperation with other Eurasian countries. Membership in the SCO also signals that attempts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically will not succeed and allows Pakistan to work with neighboring India within the SCO framework.
This MC word documents includes the current water disputes that exist in South Asia. The disputed country discussed are;
Pakistan-India
Bangladesh-India
Nepal-India
India-Bhuta
India-Sri-Lanka.
A talk given to post-graduate students of Osaka University and Royal Canadian Military College. Military strategy as part of Asia-Pacific stability was discussed.
Pak-Afghan Relations in post 9-11 era: A case study of Durand line security b...Bilal yousaf
This document outlines the history of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan from Pakistan's independence in 1947 to the post-9/11 era. It discusses the tensions caused by the disputed Durand Line border and Afghanistan's claims over Pashtun areas in Pakistan. The relations progressed through phases of hostility over the border issues, cooperation against the Soviet invasion, civil war after the Soviets withdrew, Taliban rule with Pakistani support, and renewed tensions after 9/11 when Pakistan joined the US in fighting terrorists along the border. The document argues that securing the border and increasing cultural exchange could help resolve tensions, while a peaceful dialogue is needed to settle disputes over the Durand Line.
India's Look/Act East policy was first formulated in the 1990s to boost economic, political, and social ties with Southeast Asia. It aims to develop infrastructure like roads, railways, and pipelines connecting India to the region. The policy was upgraded in 2014 as India's "Act East" policy to take a more proactive approach towards engagement with ASEAN countries. Key objectives include increasing trade volume with ASEAN nations, which currently accounts for 10% of India's total trade, and countering China's influence in the region through stronger economic and strategic cooperation.
China follows a foreign policy of non-aggression, non-interference, equality and cooperation between nations. It focuses on peaceful development and believes in resolving disputes through negotiation rather than military force. China's foreign policy is guided by the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence - mutual respect for sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. China seeks cooperative relationships with other countries based on these principles and aims to avoid conflict or confrontation.
In a recent development, India’s defence minister suggested that the “country may redesign it’s ‘No First Use’ policy of nuclear weapons”, raising stakes at a time of high tension due to abrogation of Article 370 with its “nuclear-armed” neighbour Pakistan.
This document provides an overview of geopolitics, including definitions and perspectives from influential geopolitical theorists. It defines geopolitics as the study of how geographical factors influence politics and international relations. It discusses the work of Friedrich Ratzel, who viewed states as organic organisms that seek to expand, Halford Mackinder, who emphasized the strategic importance of Eurasia, and Nicholas Spykman, who argued that control of the rimland surrounding Eurasia was key to global power rather than the heartland alone.
This document discusses the potential for India to emerge as an economic superpower. It outlines factors that could support India's rise, including its growing economy, large workforce, infrastructure development, and influence through diplomacy. The document also examines how Asian economies are taking on greater leadership roles globally as China's influence grows through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. While India faces challenges around security, building strong institutions, and ensuring internal peace, its continued economic growth could allow it to one day achieve superpower status to balance China's dominance in Asia.
The document discusses India's economic growth and development since independence. It notes that India has made progress reducing poverty and inequality, but still faces challenges in areas like employment and education. Several states have recently relaxed some labor laws to revive industry amid the pandemic, which could both help and hurt the economy and workers. As a manager, factors to consider regarding relaxed laws include prioritizing employee safety, supporting remote work, and engaging with customers and officials during the crisis.
Lecture no. 10 foreign policy, models of decision making, and domestic influ...Dildar Ali
Foreign policy is how a state interacts with other states and international actors. It is influenced by both internal factors like a country's geography, leadership, and public opinion, as well as external factors like the international system and other states. The foreign policy process involves decision making, which can follow rational, organizational, or bargaining models. Individual leaders and groups also influence decisions through psychological biases or pursuing their interests. A country's diplomats, interest groups, public, military, and legislature all shape its foreign policy choices.
Objectives and instruments of Foreign Policy Austin Trantham
This document provides instructions for a POL 403 class assignment where students must write their own foreign policy statement using two objectives and two instruments. It outlines several topics that could be addressed in the statement, such as priorities, roles, instruments, and resources. It also lists potential foreign policy objectives like power, peace, and prosperity as well as instruments like national security intelligence, diplomacy, military force, and economic statecraft.
The document discusses the key geo-strategic, geo-political, and geo-economic determinants that shape Pakistan's foreign policy. It outlines Pakistan's relations with major countries including the US, China, India, Afghanistan, and countries in the Middle East. Pakistan's strategic location and history with India, as well as its religious heritage and economic needs, are some of the main factors that influence its foreign policy goals of ensuring national security, peace in the region, and balanced diplomatic relations.
Today, India has a very strong position in world politics. Authority of the country on the world stage continues to grow seriously, as evidenced by its inclusion in the "twenty", talks on granting the country a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, etc. From the outset, in India the main real strategic goal of foreign policy was determined to transform the country into a world power. This problem is fundamental to the country's foreign policy for over 60 years.
This is a slide-set that I had used for a workshop conducted by the Indian School of Business on the Indo-Pacific on July 30, 2021.
It discusses the evolution of the US Indo-Pacific strategy and China's perceptions and policy responses.
Though the worst intelligence failure, the USA took maximum advantage of the 9/11 tragedy and embarked on the mission to accomplish the objectives set forth in the infamous neo-con paper, known as the American Century.
America employed all its -military, diplomatic and financial, to wage a war of terror on several countries besides Afghanistan-its starting point.
Whether it was a stellar success or a dismal failure, it has cost the world massively in terms of loss of human lives, financial losses, refugees crises, missed opportunities, and surprisingly, increased global terrorism
This presentation covers all these issues in greater detail
intro duction of freign policy of pakistan,foreign policy of pakistan with u.s.a,foreign policy of pakistan with china,foreign policy of pakistan with russia,foreign policy of pakistan with central asian countries..
The document discusses US-China foreign policy relations and decision making processes. It examines the relationship between the two countries across several issues including security, currency exchange, financial matters, and human rights. It also analyzes cultural differences between China and the US that influence their relationship, as well as political ideologies like neoconservatism that shape US foreign policy approaches toward China. Containment versus engagement strategies for China's rise are also debated. Overall, the relationship remains complex due to differing political systems between the US and China.
The document discusses the geopolitical competition over Central Asia referred to as the "New Great Game". It summarizes that Central Asia has significant hydrocarbon resources and strategic geographic position that has made it an area of competition between major powers like the US, Russia, and China. The document outlines each country's interests in the region and major pipeline projects that have geopolitical significance for transporting oil and gas from Central Asia, but also notes challenges and delays that have prevented some proposed projects from being realized.
Pakistan has pursued different foreign policy approaches throughout its history based on changing geopolitical circumstances. Initially, it explored friendly relations with all countries after independence. It then aligned with Western countries during the Cold War, joining organizations like SEATO and CENTO. From the 1960s, Pakistan transitioned to bilateral relations and non-alignment. It supported Afghanistan during the Soviet invasion and improved ties with the US. Following the Cold War, Pakistan pursued a nuclear program while dealing with insurgencies in Kashmir and Afghanistan. Since 9/11, Pakistan has played an active but difficult role in counterterrorism efforts while seeking to maintain relations with the US, China, and other countries.
Shanghai cooperation organization And Pakistan Hans Raj
The document discusses Pakistan joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full member in 2017. The SCO is an intergovernmental organization composed of China, Russia, and several Central Asian countries. Pakistan had been an observer since 2005 but was granted full membership to strengthen its relationship with China and increase trade and economic cooperation with other Eurasian countries. Membership in the SCO also signals that attempts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically will not succeed and allows Pakistan to work with neighboring India within the SCO framework.
This MC word documents includes the current water disputes that exist in South Asia. The disputed country discussed are;
Pakistan-India
Bangladesh-India
Nepal-India
India-Bhuta
India-Sri-Lanka.
A talk given to post-graduate students of Osaka University and Royal Canadian Military College. Military strategy as part of Asia-Pacific stability was discussed.
Pak-Afghan Relations in post 9-11 era: A case study of Durand line security b...Bilal yousaf
This document outlines the history of relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan from Pakistan's independence in 1947 to the post-9/11 era. It discusses the tensions caused by the disputed Durand Line border and Afghanistan's claims over Pashtun areas in Pakistan. The relations progressed through phases of hostility over the border issues, cooperation against the Soviet invasion, civil war after the Soviets withdrew, Taliban rule with Pakistani support, and renewed tensions after 9/11 when Pakistan joined the US in fighting terrorists along the border. The document argues that securing the border and increasing cultural exchange could help resolve tensions, while a peaceful dialogue is needed to settle disputes over the Durand Line.
India's Look/Act East policy was first formulated in the 1990s to boost economic, political, and social ties with Southeast Asia. It aims to develop infrastructure like roads, railways, and pipelines connecting India to the region. The policy was upgraded in 2014 as India's "Act East" policy to take a more proactive approach towards engagement with ASEAN countries. Key objectives include increasing trade volume with ASEAN nations, which currently accounts for 10% of India's total trade, and countering China's influence in the region through stronger economic and strategic cooperation.
China follows a foreign policy of non-aggression, non-interference, equality and cooperation between nations. It focuses on peaceful development and believes in resolving disputes through negotiation rather than military force. China's foreign policy is guided by the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence - mutual respect for sovereignty, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. China seeks cooperative relationships with other countries based on these principles and aims to avoid conflict or confrontation.
In a recent development, India’s defence minister suggested that the “country may redesign it’s ‘No First Use’ policy of nuclear weapons”, raising stakes at a time of high tension due to abrogation of Article 370 with its “nuclear-armed” neighbour Pakistan.
This document provides an overview of geopolitics, including definitions and perspectives from influential geopolitical theorists. It defines geopolitics as the study of how geographical factors influence politics and international relations. It discusses the work of Friedrich Ratzel, who viewed states as organic organisms that seek to expand, Halford Mackinder, who emphasized the strategic importance of Eurasia, and Nicholas Spykman, who argued that control of the rimland surrounding Eurasia was key to global power rather than the heartland alone.
This document discusses the potential for India to emerge as an economic superpower. It outlines factors that could support India's rise, including its growing economy, large workforce, infrastructure development, and influence through diplomacy. The document also examines how Asian economies are taking on greater leadership roles globally as China's influence grows through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. While India faces challenges around security, building strong institutions, and ensuring internal peace, its continued economic growth could allow it to one day achieve superpower status to balance China's dominance in Asia.
The document discusses India's economic growth and development since independence. It notes that India has made progress reducing poverty and inequality, but still faces challenges in areas like employment and education. Several states have recently relaxed some labor laws to revive industry amid the pandemic, which could both help and hurt the economy and workers. As a manager, factors to consider regarding relaxed laws include prioritizing employee safety, supporting remote work, and engaging with customers and officials during the crisis.
G&P - Chapter 13 - International Developmentcyruskarimian
This document discusses international development and economic growth in developing countries in the global South. It covers several topics:
1. It describes different models of economic development including import substitution, export-led growth, concentrating capital, and the roles of foreign investment, debt, and foreign aid.
2. It analyzes the experiences of different regions and countries - East Asia, China, India, Latin America, and others - in pursuing economic growth through various strategies.
3. It discusses debates around the relationship between economic development and factors like authoritarianism, democracy, and corruption.
4. It outlines different models of foreign assistance including disaster relief, handouts, and the Oxfam model of empowering local communities
Contemporary issues and Challenges in Global Economic Environment - Indian perspective: Globalization and
its Advocacy, Globalization and its Impact on India, Fair Globalization and the Need for Policy Framework,
Globalization in Reverse Gear-The Threatened Re-emergence of Protectionism. Euro zone Crisis and its impact
on India, Issues in Brexit, World recession, inflationary trends, impact of fluctuating prices of crude oil, gold
etc.
This document discusses two companies, Unilever and GlaxoSmithKline, that have significant exposure to emerging markets like India through their operations and investments. It warns that this exposure leaves the companies vulnerable as geopolitical tensions rise globally in what the document calls "The Great Game". For Unilever, 57% of its sales come from emerging markets like India, making it highly susceptible to volatility. For GlaxoSmithKline, 26% of its profits come from emerging markets, including a planned 50% increase in investment in India, but the Indian pharmaceutical market has low margins, price caps, and heavy regulation. The document advises investors to avoid these two companies due to the risks posed by their emerging market exposure as
This document summarizes a debate on bikini waxing among successful Indian women. Some physicians argue that bikini waxing increases health risks by irritating hair follicles and leaving micro-wounds that can harbor infections. However, others believe women should have the choice regarding their own bodies. The debate touches on issues of women's empowerment, health risks, and social/cultural norms.
The article highlights some of the short and medium term objectives of India’s economic diplomacy and provides game-theoretical setup in a few major areas outlining different players, their pay-offs and best-responses, and India’s potential strategies.
This document discusses reforms and globalization in India. It notes that while illiteracy, population, and poverty still exist, India is making progress in areas like education, technology, and economic growth. Literacy rates have increased to 65% from 48% a decade ago. Indians now embrace their role as a rising global power alongside China. Globalization has connected more lives through technology. Indians no longer see affluence or entrepreneurship negatively. A commitment to democracy, social advances, and a new mindset are helping India's standing globally more than specific government policies. The document examines India's shift from an inward-looking past to greater economic openness and participation in global trade and investment.
business proposal for a clothing store in the United StatesKanikaChhatwal3
The document provides details about a business proposal to open a clothing store in the United States. It discusses reasons for choosing the US as the target market, including its large economy, access to credit, diverse population, innovation, and the US dollar being the dominant global currency. The proposal then outlines sections that will be included in the business plan such as objectives, mission, products, target markets, competition analysis, and financial plan. It aims to leverage the US apparel market and differentiate the store's product offering to gain efficiency and market share.
The World In 2025 Analyzing NIC Predictionsnbelarbi
This article provides a general analysis of some topics mentioned in the last National Intelligence Council report on the World in 2025. A focus is made on China’s potential, US challenges and the way to maintain the US leadership.
This document discusses the challenges of transformation societies in developing economies as they transition from labor-intensive to innovation-driven growth models. It addresses the "transformation trap," which is the inability to resolve political, social, and economic contradictions during periods of significant change. Specifically, it argues that:
1) Establishing political stability through an inclusive social compromise between established and emerging classes is essential to lay the foundation for sustainable development during transformations.
2) The development narrative must shift from identity politics and patronage to empowering all through universal access to opportunities and capabilities.
3) Bringing together a broad societal coalition around the vision of a "Good Society" with full capabilities for all can help shape transformations
1) The 21st century global economy will be driven by emerging markets like China and India rather than advanced nations as in the 20th century.
2) The rise of China and India as economic superpowers will have widespread impacts on global resources, markets, and politics.
3) China is projected to become the world's largest economy by 2020, surpassing the US, while India will likely surpass Germany and Japan.
Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World EconomyDivek Bhatia
Fault Lines: How Hidden Fractures Still Threaten the World Economy is a 2010 book by Indian economist Raghuram Rajan on the underlying causes of the 2008 financial crisis and the structural weaknesses present in the world economy. It won the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs business book of the year award in 2010.
Emergence of india as an economic super powerKavya B.S
Four important strategies for our Economy to prosper is that of:
1) Inclusive growth
2) Environmental concern
3) Investment in innovation
4)Curbing of Black Money
thus explaining each of them.
The document discusses the rise of emerging economies and shifting global economic realities. It notes that emerging economies like China, India, Brazil and others have contributed significantly to stabilizing global growth during recessions, while their share of global GDP, trade and investment is increasing. It argues that partnerships between advanced and emerging economies are needed to support shared and balanced global growth going forward. India is positioned to leverage new opportunities from these changes through economic reforms and improved competitiveness.
This document provides lecture highlights and summaries on various topics related to modern world governments and political science. It covers concepts like modernization, theories of trade such as liberalism and mercantilism, economic growth and development, and state interdependency. Specific policies and concepts discussed include protectionism, comparative advantage, theories of economic development, and the role of scientific knowledge in reducing racism and sexism. Case studies on China's economic growth are also presented.
GLOBALIZATION and The Globalization Paradox: Why Global Markets, States, and ...tesfa7
is the process of interaction and integration among people, companies, and governments worldwide (en.m.Wikipedia.org). The authors of the articles discussed that;
Impacts of Globalization on developing and developed countries
Faire economic distribution and employment opportunities
National government demands to frame their policy aligned with international environmental laws and regulations
Msme Growth Reforms Difference between INDIA and CHINAMeghna Baid
This document compares the New Economic Policies (NEP) implemented in India and China and their effects on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in the two countries. It provides background on the Chinese economic reforms starting in 1978 that opened up and reformed China's economy. It also discusses India's economic liberalization beginning in 1991 that made its economy more market-oriented. The document then examines the objectives and impacts of these reforms in China and India, including differences in MSME policies between the two countries. It analyzes how China's exports have impacted India's MSME sector and considers strategies India's MSMEs could employ to address challenges from China.
Based on Erik Reinert, How Rich Countries Got Rich ... and Why Poor Countries Stay Poor (2007), London: Constable, Chapter 8: “Get the economic activities right”, or, the Lost Art of Creating Middle-Income Countries. Further discussion on how to make upper-middle income county out of middle-income trap. And how to synchronize different aspect on developmental policy in modern era.
1. The document discusses the BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China), which were grouped based on their large, fast-growing economies.
2. It is projected that by 2050, the BRIC nations will account for over 40% of the world's population and 60% of global GDP, surpassing developed economies.
3. The BRIC nations face both opportunities and challenges in continuing their economic growth, improving living standards, and increasing their influence in global politics and international organizations.
Similar to India's Strategies for a New World Order (20)
Post Article 370 scenario:
A worsened security situation in Jammu and Kashmir abetted by Pakistan, exacerbated by the absence of legitimate political channels, a weak economic infrastructure, and an inadequate administrative capacity.
Further, this situation is unlikely to change for the better over the next two years.
To manage this worsened security situation while rebooting economic and political mechanisms, India’s policy approach should be:
1. Security: reduce visibility while increasing security over the near term
2. Economy: build public infrastructure to support private investment
3. Administration and governance: decentralise and devolve
4. Politics: return to political normalcy as the security situation improves
5. Employment and entrepreneurship: remove obstacles to livelihood and entrepreneurship, invest in relationships, build social networks
For each policy approach, the document lists initiatives that the Union government can take up.
Mobilised violence is detrimental to the democratic fabric of India. It prevents individuals from enjoying their right to speak, move and conduct business freely. It can also cause injuries and loss of life to bystanders, in addition to significant economic costs from a cessation of economic activity and damage to property.
This Discussion Slidedoc is based on the Takshashila Discussion Document – A Framework for Countering Mobilised Violence. Existing legal measures being insufficient in addressing the problem. This Slidedoc recommends that mobilised violence can be better targeted by making a few specific changes to the legal instruments currently in place to counter such incidents. The Slidedoc presents two primary recommendations to counter mobilised violence.
Creation of a law that targets groups engaging in mobilised violence and not just individual perpetrators of violence.
Refining the scope of hate speech under the IPC to focus on the incitement of violence.
This is a presentation highlighting the key points in the report released by The Takshashila Institution and Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy at an event in Bangalore on December 5, 2018.
Financing public health in India is a vital challenge. As a response, the Union government transfers funds to the lower tiers of government, specifically meant to improve the public health services. The stated goal of specific transfers is to ensure that at least certain minimum standards of healthcare are achieved all across the country. However, our analysis of this category of funds in the period 2005 to 2015 highlights several problems that make this goal difficult to achieve.
First, the transfers are poorly targeted, as these are not linked to health indicators. Instead, such transfers by and large tend to be incremental. Second, the specific purpose transfer system has not been very helpful in offsetting the fiscal disabilities of the poorer states. Third, there is evidence to suggest that States substitute grants received from the Union government for their own spending with the result that there has not been a commensurate increase in overall spending on healthcare.
This Blue Paper was prepared as a result of a roundtable discussion organised by the Takshashila Institution on 4 September 2017, based on the Discussion Document, Beyond Consent: A New Paradigm for Data Protection.
The discussion document brings forth a rights-based model (Rights Model) to help secure the interests of a data subject sharing his data with data controllers. This Rights Model assures to every individual, an inalienable right over his personal data. Any data collector that wishes to access a data subject's personal data must ensure that they do so in a manner that does not violate this inherent data right.
The Blue Paper highlights the recommendations of the all participants at the roundtable discussion, which was chaired by Rahul Matthan.
Gene drives are being explored for alleviating vector-borne infectious diseases however, the risks of employing them need to be understood. This Slidedoc assesses the potential use of gene drives in India by performing a stage-wise risk assessment of deploying gene drive.
Gene drive mosquitoes are an application of Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats (CRISPR) technology. The application is to develop mosquitoes that decrease the incidence of mosquito-borne diseases.
Research into gene drives should be promoted however, there are risks associated with their potential use in India. Given the nature of the technology, it is recommended that robust monitoring mechanisms for disease incidence, mosquito burden and ecological impact be implemented before deploying these mosquitoes.
Data driven decisions on identifying the type of gene drive and deployment locations will ensure effective use of the technology.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Wuhan for a two-day informal meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on April 27 and 28, 2018. The two leaders are expected to discuss “issues of overarching, long-term and strategic importance” along with changes in the global order.
This could potentially imply a fundamental shift in India’s approach towards China after deepening friction over the past three years.
This Slidedoc provides a cost-benefit analysis of a strategic reset, keeping in mind India’s national interests. Based on the analysis, it arrives at an assessment that the potential costs of such an approach by India outweigh the potential benefits.
This Slidedoc presents a strategic framework that provides insights into China’s behaviour and highlights various alternative policies that China may consider for engagement in the Indian Subcontinent. An underlying assumption is that China is modeled as a rational actor in this framework.
What is China’s strategy in the Indian subcontinent?
China’s growing footprint in the Indian subcontinent is one arc of an overarching strategy to expand its global presence and influence. This study unpacks the underlying drivers of China’s policy in the region and examines the enabling and constraining factors. Based on these, it identifies a repertoire of ongoing measures and long-term policy approaches that China can and is employing.
China's ongoing measures of engagement in the subcontinent include:
Control over resource streams
Display of aggressive intent by Chinese armed forces
Control over flows of people and ideas
Denial/Provision of support at international fora
China's long term approaches to expand its presence and influence include:
Investing in multi-purpose projects
Interfering in domestic affairs of other states
Providing strategic support to non-democratic regimes
Expanding hard power reach
This Slidedoc presents a strategic framework that provides insights into China’s behaviour and highlights various alternative policies that China may consider for engagement in the Indian Subcontinent. An underlying assumption is that China is modeled as a rational actor in this framework.
What is China’s strategy in the Indian subcontinent?
China’s growing footprint in the Indian subcontinent is one arc of an overarching strategy to expand its global presence and influence. This study unpacks the underlying drivers of China’s policy in the region and examines the enabling and constraining factors. Based on these, it identifies a repertoire of ongoing measures and long-term policy approaches that China can and is employing.
China's ongoing measures of engagement in the subcontinent include:
Control over resource streams
Display of aggressive intent by Chinese armed forces
Control over flows of people and ideas
Denial/Provision of support at international fora
China's long term approaches to expand its presence and influence include:
Investing in multi-purpose projects
Interfering in domestic affairs of other states
Providing strategic support to non-democratic regimes
Expanding hard power reach
For millennia, the Himalayas constituted a strategic frontier between two dissimilar civilisations. In this presentation, Nitin Pai argues that nuclear weapons are the new Himalayas and the India-China contest has gone beyond the mountains, to the Oceans and beyond. Presented at Bangalore International Centre in June 2010.
An Account of Unaccounted Income is a discussion document that takes an in-depth look at India's unaccounted economy. It is important to distinguish between different categories of unaccounted economy, each of which has different method of functioning and different implications for the economy. The unaccounted economy is a combination of the illegal economy, unreported economy, unrecorded economy and finally, the informal economy.
This discussion document focuses on the size of the unaccounted economy and the processes involved in generating and utilising unaccounted income. It dwells on select sectors of the economy, which are more vulnerable to unaccounted income, such as real estate, education, mining, trade misinvoicing and illicit financial flows, and gold. Finally, the document looks at corruption and malpractices in government contracts and schemes.
The document analyzes India's currency reform in 2016 that removed high denomination banknotes from circulation. It discusses various potential objectives of the reform and assesses what was done, what could be expected, and what measures should have been taken for each objective. The objectives discussed include combating counterfeit currency, countering terrorist funding, punishing holders of unaccounted money, promoting a cashless economy and banking culture, replacing old currency notes, and recapitalizing the banking system.
A new smart river water management system that can allocate water to states in a dynamic, equitable and efficient manner.
The current system relies on court-administered water quotas, which is broken and dysfunctional. We are proposing to replace it with a system where states get a basic water entitlement and have to pay a Kaveri River Fund for more, and receive payouts from the Fund during drought years. It can change the issue from an emotional-political one to an ordinary-economic one, as well as give the first incentives for water conservation in the basin at the state-level.
The Takshashila Institution and the US Consulate, Chennai, hosted a roundtable conference on reviewing India’s coastal security architecture at The Hyatt MG Road, on 23 September 2016.
The slides provide an overview of the event, the key challenges faced by India in securing its coastline, views and recommendations by the discussants on ways to overcome them.
The Takshashila Institution is launching a Centre for Smart City Governance to focus on education and training programs, research, and public engagement around urban governance and India's growing cities. The Centre aims to train current and future civic leaders through an 8-class course for administrators and a 3-month leadership incubation program. It will also conduct research on key urban issues and solutions through policy toolkits, conferences, and publications. The overall goal is to help Indian cities better manage growth, create jobs, and improve quality of life for their expanding populations through smart governance.
Why Future Deck?
The Takshashila Future Deck is a set of cards designed to spark conversations about emerging challenges and opportunities that are facing India and the world.
Creating the Deck
This project was inspired by a similar deck created by the Centre for Strategic Futures, Singapore. Each card in the deck is a potential driver of India's future. The cards are grouped in the following sub-sets: Macroeconomic Shifts, Technology and Society, Citizenship and Governance, Future of Conflict and the Drivers of Growth.
Using the cards
The deck can be used in workshops to prioritise issues for further research, to examine the impact of the issues on public policy, and to craft scenario narratives about the future.
Participants can assume public roles and examine how individual cards could impact them, and also draw up new scenarios based on how two or more cards would affect each other.
Prof Mukul Asher, Councillor at the Takshashila Institution, analyses the Bangalore municipal budget (BBMP) for students of the B.PAC Civic Leadership Incubation Program. The Takshashila Institution is B.PAC's knowledge partner.
El Puerto de Algeciras continúa un año más como el más eficiente del continente europeo y vuelve a situarse en el “top ten” mundial, según el informe The Container Port Performance Index 2023 (CPPI), elaborado por el Banco Mundial y la consultora S&P Global.
El informe CPPI utiliza dos enfoques metodológicos diferentes para calcular la clasificación del índice: uno administrativo o técnico y otro estadístico, basado en análisis factorial (FA). Según los autores, esta dualidad pretende asegurar una clasificación que refleje con precisión el rendimiento real del puerto, a la vez que sea estadísticamente sólida. En esta edición del informe CPPI 2023, se han empleado los mismos enfoques metodológicos y se ha aplicado un método de agregación de clasificaciones para combinar los resultados de ambos enfoques y obtener una clasificación agregada.
04062024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
Find Latest India News and Breaking News these days from India on Politics, Business, Entertainment, Technology, Sports, Lifestyle and Coronavirus News in India and the world over that you can't miss. For real time update Visit our social media handle. Read First India NewsPaper in your morning replace. Visit First India.
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An astonishing, first-of-its-kind, report by the NYT assessing damage in Ukraine. Even if the war ends tomorrow, in many places there will be nothing to go back to.
Essential Tools for Modern PR Business .pptxPragencyuk
Discover the essential tools and strategies for modern PR business success. Learn how to craft compelling news releases, leverage press release sites and news wires, stay updated with PR news, and integrate effective PR practices to enhance your brand's visibility and credibility. Elevate your PR efforts with our comprehensive guide.
Here is Gabe Whitley's response to my defamation lawsuit for him calling me a rapist and perjurer in court documents.
You have to read it to believe it, but after you read it, you won't believe it. And I included eight examples of defamatory statements/
Acolyte Episodes review (TV series) The Acolyte. Learn about the influence of the program on the Star Wars world, as well as new characters and story twists.
1. This discussion document can be cited as “Anirudh Kanisetti, Anupam Manur et al, India’s Strategies for a New World Order,
Takshashila Discussion Document, 2018-01”.
INDIA’S STRATEGIES FOR A
NEW WORLD ORDER
A portfolio of initiatives for India to
prosper in the likely scenarios for the
world over the next 25 years
A Takshashila Discussion Document
January, 2018-01
Prepared by:
Anirudh Kanisetti
Anupam Manur
Pranay Kotasthane
Akshay Alladi
2. Executive
Summary
India’s portfolio of options
for the next 25 years
2
What should India be doing?
An agenda of what will hold India in good stead for the next quarter
century, regardless of how the world shapes up.
Domestic Economic Reforms
1. Liberalise major sectors, implement labour and factor market reforms. Be an attractive
destination for FDI.
2. Focus on the employment elasticity of growth in addition to economic growth.
Collaborate with foreign universities for skilling the workforce.
3. Build a social security net to deal with inequality, unemployment, skill obsolescence,
and an aging population.
Reforms for India’s engagement with the world at large
4. Three critical military shifts needed: from land to sea, from the physical to the virtual
(cyberwarfare); and from manpower to firepower.
5. Champion the cause of globalisation as movement of labour, goods, and services is
critical for India’s growth.
6. Retain flexibility in terms of alignment: be open to larger partnerships and global
projects, as well as unilateral action.
7. Partner with other middle powers, especially those concerned by G2 dominance.
3. We imagine 20
New World
Scenarios..
.. At the intersection of 5
geopolitical trends and 4
geoeconomic trends
3Geopolitical Trends
GeoeconomicTrends
The Great
Disruption
The New
American
Universe
US-China LLP
Pragmatic
Competition
New
Technology
Race
Digital
Westphalia
New Economic
Boom
Washington
Consensus 2.0
Rush Hour
Clinton-Jiang
Redux
Clash of
Prosperities
The Delhi
Dream
Secular
Stagnation
Obama
Reprise
Slow & Steady
Staying on the
Rails
The Great
Walls
The Big Snail
Race
Global
Recession
1929 Again
Partners in
Crime
Spiralling
Downwards
Race to the
Bottom
Powerful in
Poverty
US as the sole
superpower Cooperative G2 Coopetitive G2 New Cold War
Multipolar
world
4. These 20 New World Scenarios were constructed from
5 Geopolitical Trends 4 Geoeconomic Trends
4
US as the Sole Superpower
US returns to its late 20th century role as sole global superpower
The Great Disruption
Global economy radically changed by technological advances
Cooperative G2
US and China amicably manage the global order
New Economic Boom
World enters a period of sustained, high growth
Coopetition in G2
US and China cooperate and compete selectively
Secular Stagnation
World enters a period of low growth
New Cold War
US and China openly confront each other, with no immediate rivals
Global Recession
World enters a period of negative growth
Multipolar World
Relative decline of superpowers, a number of regional competing powers
* We foresee that China is unlikely to
become the sole superpower in the next 25
years.
5. Guide to the Reader
1. “The New American Universe”
2. “Rush Hour”
3. “Staying on the Rails”
4. “Race to the Bottom”
5. “Digital Westphalia”
6. India’s Portfolio of Alternatives
7. Appendix
5
A curated list of interesting and most likely
scenarios is presented in the next 5 slides.
For each scenario, we analyse:
1. The macroeconomic and macro political
trends in that scenario
2. The exogenous impact on India
3. Possible set of options for India to manage
the scenario.
This is used to construct India’s portfolio of
options for the next 25 years.
The Appendix explains the remaining 15
scenarios.
Index
6. “The New American Universe”
What might the world look like? The US dominates the world militarily, and American tech conglomerates
dominate the economy. US-aligned states get favourable tech transfers. A global regulatory body for new
tech, controlled by the US, is formed. Though clean energy becomes less of a priority, there is massive
investment in climate change management technology such as industrial greenhouse cultivation. Globally,
conventional conflict becomes insignificant but asymmetric warfare is amplified, global, and much more
efficient, primarily directed against perceived American imperialism.
How will this affect India? The Indian economy is radically reshaped. Access to knowledge and markets
become vital but rising inequality becomes a major issue - some sectors of Indian industry are well-placed in
terms of access to knowledge, while others face a net job-loss situation. There is a backlash against “the
West”, and globalised elites. Politically, US is unsympathetic at worst and unreliable at best with regards to
India’s concerns.
How can India maximise its national interest? Tie up with other emerging or middle powers, and trade
access to markets for membership in the club that manages the tech globally. A lot of sectors should be
liberalised to receiving FDI to facilitate this process - including defence. India should invest heavily in
asymmetric weaponry to take advantage of the disruption. Factor market reforms needed to ensure that
companies can be flexible enough to deal with disruption - stalling the shift to automation can keep
unemployment at bay. A human capital approach to social security must also be developed to address
inequality concerns and the ageing population. Invest heavily in R&D, set-up world-class science universities,
and collaborate with the best foreign universities.
6
Geopolitics:
US as the Sole
Superpower
➔ US is unchallenged, committed to an
external balancing strategy
Geoeconomics:
The Great Disruption
➔ High but uneven global growth; low
inflation
➔ High automation
➔ High levels of trade
➔ Rare earth metals become
sought-after resources
➔ Low to moderate labour mobility,
high capital and knowledge flows
7. “Rush Hour”
What might the world look like? The international order is maintained by the G2 and their dominance of
global institutions. Spheres of influence dominated by the economic system of each superpower emerge. This
leads to a decline in the importance of the G20. Relative economic prosperity and the absence of unilateral
action leads to reduced conflict. On global issues such as climate change, there is some action, tempered by
American and Chinese interests.
How will this affect India? With an economic boom behind it, the middle class is large, aspirational, and
assertive. Concerns about inequality and India’s position on the global stage are present, especially due to the
sidelining of the G20. Since both the US and China want access to India and other developing markets, there is
an opportunity for India to lead a market-sharing bloc of non-G2 States. Export-driven growth becomes a
strong possibility. The US is unlikely to develop a closer strategic partnership with India, and China continues its
strategy of containment. This means that India must aggressively advance its interests or risk being sidelined.
How can India maximise its national interest? Foreign policy must be trade-oriented, backed up by a
larger diplomatic corps, an expanded navy, and more bilateral ties. A sovereign wealth fund should be created
and immigration policies negotiated with SE Asia and East African countries. Islands in the Indian Ocean should
also be brought decisively into India’s sphere of influence, with a larger naval presence in the Andamans and
effective control of the sea lanes to offset the power of the G2. A defence partnership with other middle powers
such as Iran & Russia should be considered. Domestically, social reforms, such as investment in healthcare, and
education, and institutional preparedness to take advantage of FDI and FII flows, are necessary.
7
Geopolitics:
Cooperative G2
➔ US and China carve out an amicable
partnership to manage the world in
their interest
Geoeconomics:
New Economic Boom
➔ High global growth, low to moderate
levels of inflation
➔ Moderate automation
➔ High levels of trade
➔ Slight demand shift to
unconventional resources
➔ Relatively high levels of knowledge,
capital and labour mobility
8. “Staying on the Rails”
What might the world look like? The international order is maintained by G2 consultation, but there is
underlying tension on many issues. Both superpowers dominate weak global institutions. There is intense
competition between smaller powers for favourable trade/investment deals, with a limited degree of
protectionism. There are trade wars between the G2 and the blocs that they dominate. Climate action stalls.
Conventional conflict is unaffordable, but asymmetric warfare is present to a moderate degree.
How will this affect India? Redistributive demands dominate Indian discourse. There is increasing
unemployment. Low global labour mobility leads to resentment in the middle class. There is considerable
internal and external pressure to join either G2-led economic bloc, wherein India’s large market would provide
opportunities for FDI and allow for favourable trade agreements. Initially, an outright economic competition
with other blocs is also likely.
How can India maximise its national interest? The key issue for the Indian government would be creating
new jobs in the economy. India must be receptive to trade and FDI, using its market power to get the best
possible deals. Good relations should be maintained with both blocs, and India should become part of the BRI,
TPP or similar treaties to ensure a steady inflow of capital. It would have to slash taxes, liberalise product and
factor markets and promote industry, especially to soak up talent that is unable to migrate abroad. A general
push for domestic consumption may help restart growth - which would make it possible to act as a swing
power on some issues. India should deepen strategic cooperation with the US while maintaining a near
neutral outlook towards China. A social security net should be developed. 8
Geopolitics:
Coopetitive G2
➔ US and China cooperate on some
issues but fiercely compete in some
others
Geoeconomics:
Secular Stagnation
➔ Low global growth, deflation or low
inflation; low automation
➔ Low levels of trade, somewhat
higher within blocs
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Low labour mobility, capital flows
from developed to developing
economies.
9. “Race to the Bottom”
What might the world look like? The UN becomes irrelevant and the world separates into alliances
dominated by either power. There is ruthless competition between the superpowers to expand their blocs. High
global unemployment leads to radicalisation and more non-state actors. Excessive tech disruption is seen as a
threat to stability, but military and software research continues. Conventional conflict is mostly low-intensity,
over resources, but asymmetric warfare is present to a very high degree.
How will this affect India? High inequality and unemployment lead to demands for social justice, possibly
resulting in authoritarianism. Populism and security are the dominant themes of discourse. The security
emphasis, however, could lead to marginalisation with internal actors demanding superpower intervention.
Simultaneously, India comes under significant pressure from both superpowers to join their blocs or provide
market access. If handled delicately, there could be major payoffs by playing off the superpowers.
How can India maximise its national interest? This scenario severely restricts India’s options and a very
non-confrontational attitude must be adopted to prevent hostility from either superpower. India cannot lose
cheap Chinese exports, nor can it lose American investment. India must intelligently play them off to ensure
security as well as investment. Kickstarting domestic production through lowered taxes and market reforms
should be the first priority. The indigenous defence industry must be strengthened. Unconventional warfare,
such as a nuclear umbrella and cyber warfare capabilities, are a good way to meet security objectives. Allow FDI
strategically - align with the US in the defence sphere, and with China in the economic sphere. A human capital
approach to social security must also be developed to address inequality concerns. 9
Geopolitics:
New Cold War
➔ Confrontation between US and
China, without a full-scale war
Geoeconomics:
Global Recession
➔ Negative global growth, deflation
➔ Low automation
➔ Medium levels of trade within blocs,
Very low levels of trade outside them
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Very low labour mobility. Capital
flows only into high performing
developing countries.
10. “Digital Westphalia”
What might the world look like? A G10-type scenario emerges with regional “poles”. Disruption leads to the
emergence of two global groupings - those with the technology, and those without. There is intense
competition over knowledge resources. To protect local economies, free trade zones of countries with
technology emerge with high levels of internal trade, but much less externally. Conventional conflict is localised
but asymmetric warfare is amplified, global, and much more efficient.
How will this affect India? The Indian economy is radically reshaped. While some sectors of Indian industry
are well-placed in terms of access to knowledge, careful management of disruption is necessary to ensure
social cohesion. Access to knowledge and markets is vital electorally, but rising inequality is also a major issue.
There is a backlash against the most disruptive countries and globalised elites, unless the benefits of disruption
are felt. This is also a major concern for countries which rely on conventional resources (such as Russia and
Saudi Arabia).
How can India maximise its national interest? The goal should be to bolster the influence of the Indian
“pole”. Foreign aid and investments, resource extraction consortiums, sovereign wealth funds, and promoting
immigration to and from India can expand our footprint. We should join or form a technology-sharing and
market-access bloc, or a global technology management regime. Invest heavily in R&D, set-up world-class
science universities, and collaborate with the best foreign universities. In a highly disrupted multipolar world,
India should also consider building expeditionary capability in addition to asymmetric warfare capability for
security. Domestically, a strong social security net must be developed to address inequality concerns and the
ageing population.
Geopolitics:
Multipolar World
➔ Relative decline of superpowers, a
number of regional competing
powers
Geoeconomics:
The Great Disruption
➔ High but uneven global growth, low
inflation
➔ High automation
➔ High levels of trade within blocs
➔ Resource demand shifts to rare
earths
➔ Low to moderate labour mobility,
high capital and knowledge mobility
10
11. Conclusion:
India’s
portfolio of
options
11
How can India’s national interest be maximised?
The best responses for India are the ones that appear across the maximum
number of scenarios.
Domestic Economic Reforms
1. Liberalise major sectors, implement labour and factor market reforms. Be an attractive
destination for FDI.
2. Focus on the employment elasticity of growth in addition to economic growth. Collaborate
with foreign universities for skilling the workforce.
3. Build a social security net to deal with inequality, unemployment, and an ageing
population. This net should be focused towards building human capital by allowing for
retraining.
Reforms for India’s engagement with the world at large
4. Three critical military shifts needed: from land to sea, from the physical to the virtual
(cyberwarfare); and from a people-heavy force to a machine-heavy force.
5. Champion the cause of globalisation as movement of labour, goods, and services is critical
for India’s growth.
6. Retain flexibility in terms of alignment: side with powers based only on the national
interest. Be open to larger partnerships and global projects, as well as unilateral action.
7. Partner with other middle powers, especially those concerned by G2 dominance.
14. "Washington Consensus 2.0"
What might the world look like? A US-dominated UN supervises a capitalist global system, with order
maintained by American guarantee and for American interests. Powerful corporations have a major say in
global affairs. The source of such power lies in control over resources and knowledge. A continued reliance on
conventional fuels results in severe environmental consequences, but there is massive investment in climate
change mitigation technologies. There is significantly lower conflict, except when in American interests. This
would be primarily conventional conflict, with some actors resorting to asymmetric warfare.
How will this affect India? Development continues to remain the key theme for government policies. The
middle class is large, assertive and growing, with an increasingly Westernised/globalised outlook. The US needs
access to Indian markets for growth, allowing for chances of regional leadership constrained by US interests. In
an American global trading order, though, indigenous industry is at risk. This is an opportunity to collaborate
with a weakened China both politically and economically.
How can India maximise its national interest? India should aggressively position for export-led growth to
take advantage of Western manufacturing and investment. This calls for significant market reforms (especially
in factor markets - land & labor), along with creation of SEZs. China’s reduced importance could allow for the
resolution of border disputes and an expanded Indian presence in initiatives such as the RCEP. India could also
create an Asian economic bloc to negotiate agreements with US-led blocs. Military spending can be restricted
to modernisation and capital acquisition, as the US would guarantee trade security. There is an opportunity to
invest heavily in healthcare, education, and skilling to address inequality concerns.
14
Geopolitics:
US as the Sole
Superpower
Geoeconomics:
New Economic Boom
➔ High global growth, low to moderate
levels of inflation
➔ Moderate automation
➔ High levels of trade
➔ Increased pressure on conventional
fuels
➔ Relatively high levels of knowledge,
capital and labour mobility
15. “Obama Reprise”
What might the world look like? Order is maintained by US dominance of global institutions. Some degree
of global trade liberalisation occurs, and expansionary monetary policies are implemented in the US and EU.
Some degree of protectionism and formation of smaller free trade blocs also takes place. Competition is over
favourable trade/investment deals. Conventional conflict is nonexistent, and asymmetric warfare is present to
a low degree.
How will this affect India? India remains development-oriented, with some redistributive demands.
Inequality and unemployment lead to calls for social justice. Expansionary monetary policies abroad provide
liquidity, and India’s large market is an opportunity for FDI and allows for favourable trade agreements. There
is increased cohesion and trade among members of regional blocs and more treaties to cooperate come into
force. The US, however, expects preferential treatment. China is weakened further in this scenario, clearing
the way for an entente.
How can India maximise its national interest? India must be receptive to trade and FDI, using its market
power to get the best possible deals. Domestic investment and consumption should be stimulated by
adopting structural reforms. India should align with the US to magnify its projection of economic strength, as
well as being part of regional free trade blocs. American backing should be used to secure peace in the
neighbourhood. In the long term, the US would not allow India to become too powerful. This could be offset
by entering into an agreement with China, resolving border disputes, embarking on joint projects, or even
splitting Southeast Asia into Indian and Chinese economic spheres. 15
Geopolitics:
US as the Sole
Superpower
Geoeconomics:
Secular Stagnation
➔ Low global growth, deflation or low
inflation; low automation
➔ Low levels of trade
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Low labour mobility, capital flows
from developed to developing
economies.
16. “1929 Again”
What might the world look like? Order is maintained by US dominance of global institutions, but the world
separates into internal free-trade blocs. There is competition over favourable trade/investment deals, which are
selectively handed out by the US. Some degree of trade wars occur, as long as the belligerents aren’t
US-aligned. Higher unemployment, low migration, and American resource imperialism lead to radicalisation
and more non-state actors. Asymmetric warfare is present to a moderate degree.
How will this affect India? High inequality, unemployment, and a lack of global opportunities lead to
demands for social justice. Populism and redistribution with a high degree of state involvement are the
dominant themes of governance. India’s large market provides opportunities for FDI and allows for favourable
trade agreements. However, there is some degree of US-led pressure to maintain austerity in return for
investment. Friendly ties with them would allow for continued export of goods, if not labour. China is weakened
and vulnerable, creating an opportunity for India and the US.
How can India maximise its national interest? It may be necessary to ally with the US and get into their
military-industrial complex, aligning with them on most issues. This would clear the way for forceful resolution
of border disputes with China, supporting the independence of Tibet and Xinjiang, and entering into areas
formerly under Chinese influence, turning India into the regional hegemon under American dominance. All
sectors should be opened for FDI and FII and good macroeconomic fundamentals should be maintained to
remain an attractive destination. High domestic consumption-led growth and strong institutions are vital, since
global consumption would be low. This could be kickstarted with lowered taxes and regulations. 16
Geopolitics:
US as the Sole
Superpower
Geoeconomics:
Global Recession
➔ Negative global growth, deflation
➔ Low automation
➔ Low levels of trade
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Very low labour mobility. Capital
flows only into high performing
developing countries.
18. “US-China LLP”
What might the world look like? The global order is maintained by G2 consultations and tech dominance.
Concerns over inequality lead to the emergence of strong alliances of third-world countries, as well as Chinese
and American blocs. There is a major shift in trade patterns, with a strong possibility of neo-colonialism.
Competition is over knowledge resources, monopolised by the G2. Conventional conflict is nonexistent but
asymmetric warfare would be used by smaller actors struggling with the effects of disruption and G2
dominance. Climate improves.
How will this affect India? Some sectors of the Indian economy are already well-placed in terms of access to
knowledge and FDI inflows, but disruption leads to radical changes in others. More capital-intensive industries
cause higher unemployment. This might lead to a backlash electorally. The G2 are interested in India only for
its market, and restrict it otherwise.
How can India maximise its national interest? Invest heavily in R&D, set-up world-class science
universities, and collaborate with the best foreign universities. India should bank on its existing technological
prowess and focus on using it to build competence in new technologies to contain China’s influence. The Indian
Ocean bed should be mined for rare earths and expeditionary capacity should be built up to reduce dependence
on Chinese rare earth resources. Defence and technology partnerships with other middle powers should be
cultivated, especially those whose economies depend on conventional resources. India must be extremely
selective in providing market access, especially to the G2, until its technology is competitive. A strong social
security net must be developed to address inequality concerns.
18
Geopolitics:
Cooperative G2
Geoeconomics:
The Great Disruption
➔ High but uneven global growth, low
inflation; high automation
➔ High levels of trade, except between
some blocs
➔ Resource demand shifts to rare
earths
➔ Low to moderate labour mobility,
high capital and knowledge mobility
19. “Slow & Steady”
What might the world look like? Order is maintained by G2 consultation and dominance of institutions.
These weak global institutions supervise internal free-trade blocs. The growth slowdown prompts the US,
China, and the EU to indulge in a monetary and fiscal stimulus. Competition is over favourable trade/
investment deals. Some countries resort to competitive devaluation and increased trade barriers. Higher
unemployment leads to radicalisation and more non-state actors. Conventional conflict is nonexistent, but
asymmetric warfare would be present to a moderate degree.
How will this affect India? India is development-oriented with some redistributive demands. Inequality and
unemployment lead to calls for social justice. The global monetary and fiscal stimulus provides liquidity and
investors look for growing economies to invest in. India’s large market provides opportunities for FDI and
allows for favourable trade agreements. However, we face increased cohesion and trade among members of
G2-led blocs, and some pressure to join either bloc. In addition, economic competition with China is a risk.
How can India maximise its national interest? India should align politically with the US, and economically
with China. G2 guarantees should be used to secure peace and trade in the neighbourhood. India should
strategically liberalise some sectors of the economy, and be receptive to trade and FDI, using its market power
to get the best possible deals. Strong macroeconomic fundamentals are a must. There should also be a push for
domestic consumption and import substitution. India can also focus on building charter cities and creating SEZs
to create employment.
19
Geopolitics:
Cooperative G2
Geoeconomics:
Secular Stagnation
➔ Low global growth, deflation or low
inflation; low automation
➔ Low levels of trade
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Low labour mobility, capital flows
from developed to developing
economies.
20. “Partners in Crime”
What might the world look like? Order is maintained by G2 consultation. Weak global institutions supervise
regional free-trade blocs. The recession prompts the US, China and EU to undertake a monetary and fiscal
stimulus. Competition is over favourable trade/investment deals. Many countries resort to competitive
devaluation and increased trade barriers. Higher unemployment leads to radicalisation and more non-state
actors. Conventional conflict is nonexistent but asymmetric warfare is present to a moderate degree.
How will this affect India? High inequality and unemployment lead to demands for social justice. Populism
and redistribution with a high degree of state involvement are major themes for governance. Countries are
interested in trading with India, depending on its relationship with the G2. India’s large market provides
opportunities for FDI and allows for favourable trade agreements.
How can India maximise its national interest? India should make concessions to ensure investment from
the G2. India’s best bet is to be receptive to trade, using its market power to get the best possible deals and
possibly investing in strategically vital countries. A larger diplomatic corps may be necessary to cultivate
bilateral ties. G2 cooperation is also an excellent opportunity for India’s involvement in global infrastructure
projects and in getting FDI. High domestic consumption-led growth and strong institutions are vital. The US
relationship should be cultivated, and peace with China maintained. Military expenditure should be curbed in
favour of developing economic power.
20
Geopolitics:
Cooperative G2
Geoeconomics:
Global Recession
➔ Negative global growth, deflation
➔ Low automation
➔ Low levels of trade
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Very low labour mobility. Capital
flows only into high performing
developing countries.
22. “Pragmatic Competition”
What might the world look like? Order is maintained by G2 consultation. Weak global institutions
dominated by either superpower supervise blocs organised around access to tech and markets. There is a major
shift in trade patterns depending on who has access to the best technology, and competition will be primarily
over knowledge resources. Conventional conflict is almost nonexistent, but asymmetric warfare would be
amplified, global, and much more efficient.
How will this affect India? Access to knowledge and markets are vital electorally. Rising inequality and
unemployment are major threats, and there is a backlash owing to a new degree of globalisation. All countries
are interested in friendly ties with India for market access. India is well-placed in terms of access to knowledge
but disruption leads to radical changes in India’s economy, which need to be managed.
How can India maximise its national interest? Bank on our existing technological prowess and focus on
using it to build competence in new technologies, especially cheap manufacturing to reduce dependence on
China. Japan and the US can be induced to help explore rare earth reserves in the Indian Ocean for the same
purpose. India should invest heavily in R&D, set-up world-class science universities, and collaborate with the
best foreign universities. India should also join or form a technology-sharing and market-access bloc that
collectively negotiates with the G2. Access to markets should be traded for access to resources. Strategically
allow for 100% FDI in defence and invest heavily in asymmetric weaponry to take advantage of disruption and
maintain security. A strong social security net must be developed to address inequality concerns.
22
Geopolitics:
Coopetitive G2
Geoeconomics:
The Great Disruption
➔ High but uneven global growth, low
inflation
➔ High automation
➔ High levels of trade
➔ Resource demand shifts to rare
earths
➔ Low to moderate labour mobility,
high capital and knowledge mobility
23. “Clinton-Jiang Redux”
What might the world look like? Order is maintained by G2 consultation. Weak global institutions
dominated by either superpower supervise economic blocs specialising in secondary or tertiary manufacturing.
There are high levels of trade in G2-led blocs, possibly less between blocs, with no major shift in patterns or
resource demand. Some degree of trade conflict is present between G2-led blocs. Competition is over
knowledge resources and market access. Climate action depends on the G2, but is likely. Conventional conflict
nonexistent but asymmetric warfare would be present to a low degree.
How will this affect India? India is highly development-oriented. The middle class is large, aspirational, and
assertive. As always, there are some concerns about inequality. All countries are interested in friendly ties with
India, especially the G2, for strategic and economic reasons. India is well-placed in terms of access to
knowledge and size of its market.
How can India maximise its national interest? Markets should be opened to all countries, and a strong
social security net developed to address inequality concerns. Friendly relations must be cultivated and
issue-based diplomatic coalitions formed. A strategic defence partnership with the US can be pursued, and its
help used to resolve border disputes. Defence deals should be struck with Vietnam and other SE Asian
countries to contain Chinese influence. Simultaneously, India should pursue immigration treaties, create a
sovereign wealth/foreign aid fund, and start international infrastructure projects to expand its influence.
Military strength should be ramped up quickly to project power in the neighbourhood. Product and factor
market reforms will help India take advantage of the global economic boom. 23
Geopolitics:
Coopetitive G2
Geoeconomics:
New Economic Boom
➔ High global growth, low to moderate
levels of inflation
➔ Moderate automation
➔ High levels of trade
➔ Increased pressure on conventional
fuels
➔ Relatively high levels of knowledge,
capital and labour mobility
24. “Spiralling Downwards”
What might the world look like? Order is maintained by G2 consultation. Weak global institutions
dominated by either superpower supervise internal free-trade blocs. Trade barriers are competitively imposed
by many countries. Higher unemployment leads to radicalisation and more non-state actors. Conventional
conflict is nonexistent but asymmetric warfare would be present to a moderate degree.
How will this affect India? The electoral system would favour nationalism, populism and redistribution, with
a high degree of state involvement. High inequality and unemployment lead to demands for social justice.
Meanwhile, all countries are interested in friendly ties with India for economic reasons. This means that India
must walk a fine line between protecting its industries and obtaining investment and trade.
How can India maximise its national interest? India must be receptive to trade and FDI, using its market
power to get the best possible deals and investing in strategically vital countries. The diplomatic corps should
be expanded and states pushed to engage in foreign policy under the aegis of the Union. A social security net
would be necessary to ensure domestic political stability. Domestic investment and consumption will gain
importance, which means that there will be a need to reform product and labour markets.
Internationally, India must cultivate the US, and remain at peace with China. Its economic strength can then be
used to project power in unprecedented ways. There is a chance for India to create a G3 world by using its
economy to obtain global influence and taking advantage of G2 coopetition.
24
Geopolitics:
Coopetitive G2
Geoeconomics:
Global Recession
➔ Negative global growth, deflation
➔ Low automation
➔ Low levels of trade
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Very low labour mobility. Capital
flows only into high performing
developing countries.
26. “New Technology Race”
What might the world look like? The UN becomes irrelevant, and the world separates into alliances and
Internets dominated by either power, who control access to technology. Sovereignty is eroded and
neo-colonialism emerges. There are high internal levels of trade within alliances. The climate comes under
major pressure due to economic arms races. There are protracted proxy wars, cyber warfare, propaganda,
espionage, and terrorism, as well as new forms of conflict including drone warfare and even biological
weaponry.
How will this shape India’s society and economy? Disruption leads to radical changes in India’s economy
and society. Access to knowledge and markets is critical to our survival as a sovereign state. Meanwhile, rising
inequality is an existential threat, and there is a backlash against the superpowers owing to their technological
and economic dominance. The superpowers, however, are interested in friendly ties with India for market
access. This should not be easily granted owing to their overwhelming technological edge. India’s weakness on
this front means that it will be necessary to align with one of them.
How can India maximise its national interest? Align with the American bloc, partner with US tech giants,
and support the independence of Tibet, Xinjiang and Balochistan to weaken the Chinese axis. A “Look West”
policy should be adopted, befriending Middle Eastern countries for investment and developing a naval
chokehold on the Arabian Sea to counterbalance Chinese power in the Southeast. Indian corporations can mine
African rare earths under the aegis of the US. To handle the economic backlash from China, India must invest in
cheap manufacturing technology. India’s existing technological prowess must be aggressively converted into
competence in new technologies, especially for unconventional warfare.
26
Geopolitics:
New Cold War
Geoeconomics:
The Great Disruption
➔ High but very uneven global growth
➔ High automation
➔ High levels of trade within blocs, low
between blocs
➔ Resource demand shifts to rare
earths
➔ Capital and knowledge mobility high
within blocs. Low labour mobility
27. “Clash of Prosperities”
What might the world look like? The UN becomes irrelevant, and the world separates into alliances
dominated by either power. Sovereignty is eroded and neo-colonialism emerges. Each superpower invests
massively in its allies, leading to a growth spurt. There is intense economic and military competition, especially
over knowledge. This competition leads to new technologies. The climate comes under major pressure due to
economic arms races. There is some low-intensity conventional conflict between puppet states, in addition to
protracted proxy wars, cyber warfare, espionage, possible sanctions, and terrorism.
How will this affect India? Rising inequality and security concerns lead to severe marginalisation. Security is
the dominant theme of organisation. The middle class is not as assertive. There are major opportunities for
diplomatic payoffs by playing off the superpowers against each other. We would, however, be at an increased
risk of sanctions from either bloc, trade disruption due to new alignments, or economic disruption due to new
technology.
How can India maximise its national interest? Russia, owing to rising prosperity, will also be antagonistic
to China. This gives India a chance to weaken the Chinese hegemony. Power projection is vital and overseas
military bases may be needed. Closer ties with the East African and Arabian seaboard should be sought with an
expanded navy, and the army expanded to protect the China and Pakistan borders, in addition to building
nuclear deterrence. FDI must be allowed only for friendly states, and technology transfers aggressively sought.
State spending should be used to deal with inequality and prevent marginalised internal actors from aligning
with China. 27
Geopolitics:
New Cold War
Geoeconomics:
New Economic Boom
➔ High global growth, low to moderate
levels of inflation
➔ Moderate automation
➔ High levels of trade within blocs.
➔ Increased pressure on conventional
fuels
➔ Relatively high levels of knowledge,
capital and labour mobility within
blocs
28. “The Great Walls”
What might the world look like? The UN becomes irrelevant, and the world separates into alliances
dominated by either power, which use investment to win over states. There will be low levels of trade even
within blocs, causing destabilisation. There is considerable competition with trade/investment deals used as
carrots or sticks, as well as low-intensity conventional conflict over resources, and asymmetric warfare to a
moderate degree. Climate change worsens.
How will this affect India? There will be populism and redistribution, with a degree of state involvement in
markets. Inequality and unemployment lead to calls for social justice. India also faces significant pressure from
both blocs to join or provide market access. This is an opportunity for FDI, favourable trade agreements or
investment/infrastructure deals with either superpower, with strings attached.
How can India maximise its national interest? Owing to India’s reduced economic clout, a cautious foreign
policy should be followed to not antagonise either superpower. It should use its market power to get the best
possible deals from both blocs, using these to stimulate its own economy with fiscal spending to address
inequality and unemployment. India must play off the blocs to ensure its own security, while also stimulating
indigenous defence and trying to obtain better technology from the superpowers. If it is impossible to get deals
without aligning, India should consider forming a Non-Aligned Movement 2.0 under its economic leadership.
28
Geopolitics:
New Cold War
Geoeconomics:
Secular Stagnation
➔ Low global growth, deflation or low
inflation; Low automation
➔ Existence of trade barriers between
blocs. Moderate trade within blocs
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Low labour mobility, capital flows
from developed to developing
economies within blocs.
30. “The Delhi Dream”
What might the world look like? Order is maintained by a reformed United Nations and other global
institutions, with a strong G20. Strong regional economic blocs emerge, and climate action is taken. Some
degree of competition over knowledge resources and market access are present within a global (mostly)
neoliberal economy. Conventional conflict is nonexistent.
How will this affect India? India is highly development-oriented. The middle class is large, growing, and
assertive. Concerns about inequality begin to wane. All countries are interested in friendly ties with India for
strategic and economic reasons, presenting more opportunities for regional cooperation and leadership.
How can India maximise its national interest? This scenario is an excellent opportunity for India to rise to
the top of the global order. Free trade agreements should be negotiated, a sovereign wealth fund created, the
export sector boosted, and the knowledge economy developed. India should invest in massive regional and
global projects - and maybe even create its own - a "New Spice Route". An “Aman ki Asha 2.0” should be
pursued with Pakistan (the relative decline of American and Chinese funding to the military-jihadi complex
creates an opportunity for peace). Major social reforms can be carried out. India’s economic power can be
solidified with a regional bloc supported by an expanded Navy to govern the Indian Ocean and support
large-scale Indian projects and demographic expansion across the region. Since non-proliferation has been less
than a success, India should create a new global peace accord by insisting on a global no-first-use policy. 30
Geopolitics:
Multipolar World
Geoeconomics:
New Economic Boom
➔ High global growth, low to moderate
inflation; moderate automation
➔ Moderate to high levels of trade.
Preference given to trade within
cooperative areas
➔ Increased pressure on conventional
fuels
➔ Relatively high levels of knowledge,
capital and labour mobility
31. “The Big Snail Race”
What might the world look like? Global order is slightly eroded, and institutions are neglected in favour of
new groupings on nationalist/economic lines. Competition will be over favourable trade/investment deals.
Conventional conflict is unaffordable, and asymmetric warfare is present to a moderate degree.
How will this affect India? India is development-oriented with a high degree of state involvement.
Inequality and unemployment lead to calls for social justice. All countries are very interested in friendly ties
with India, for economic reasons. India’s large market provides opportunities for FDI and allows for favourable
trade agreements.
How can India maximise its national interest? India must be receptive to trade and FDI, using its market
power to get the best possible deals and investing in strategically vital countries. Other countries should be
incentivised to buy from India. The country’s economic strength can be used to project power in
unprecedented ways and obtain massive concessions from countries interested in growth. India can also focus
on building charter cities and creating SEZs to create employment. Social reforms might be necessary. Military
strength can be ramped up through FDI deals and a regional bloc formed on economic lines.
31
Geopolitics:
Multipolar World
Geoeconomics:
Secular Stagnation
➔ Low global growth, deflation or low
inflation; low automation
➔ Low levels of trade. Preferential
trade within cooperative areas
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Low labour mobility, capital flows
from developed to developing
economies.
32. “Powerful in Poverty”
What might the world look like? Global order is seriously eroded. Global institutions are neglected in favour
of new groupings with increasing nationalism. Most nations struggle with high unemployment, leading to
radicalisation and more non-state actors. The climate worsens, as every state attempts to kickstart growth.
Localised conventional conflict occurs in order to capture resources. Trade wars are commonplace, as is
asymmetric warfare.
How will this affect India? The electoral system favours populism and redistribution, with a high degree of
state involvement. High inequality and unemployment lead to demands for social justice. Meanwhile, all
countries are interested in friendly ties with India for economic reasons. This means that India needs to walk a
fine line between protecting its industries and obtaining investment and trade.
How can India maximise its national interest? The international order can be expected to be far more
anarchic than any time in recent history. A massive investment in defence would be necessary to project power
as well as to create jobs. Both expeditionary capacity and nuclear deterrence capability are needed. A much
larger army should be deployed on the borders, and neighbours should be dissuaded from engaging deeply
with China. India should also develop its own internal free-trade bloc for emerging economies to collectively
negotiate with others, using its military power to get favourable terms, maintaining control and extracting
resources with an expanded navy operating in the Indian Ocean. Domestically, some degree of redistribution
should be considered to maintain social stability.
32
Geopolitics:
Multipolar World
Geoeconomics:
Global Recession
➔ Negative global growth, deflation
➔ Low automation
➔ Low levels of trade, competitive
trade barriers.
➔ No major shift in patterns of resource
demand
➔ Very low labour mobility. Capital
flows only into high-performing
developing countries.
33. India’s
demography
over the next
25 Years
An extrapolation of
present trends
33
What will India look like in 25 years?
By 2043 i.e. 25 years from now, demographic projections suggest:
1. Total population will be 1.63 billion, the largest in the world.
2. The median age will be 35.
3. Ratio of non-working to working population: 46.3% .
4. 43% of India will be urban (an extremely conservative estimate).
5. The female working age population will be 53 million, or 48% of the
labour force.
Sources:
World Bank Data Catalog
United Nations World Urbanization Prospects
United Nations World Population Prospects