Urban resilience and infrastructure | Emerging Trends #3 _ v2

CLIMATE RESILIENCE
AND INFRASTRUCTURE
0 s

BILOXI-OCEAN SPRINGS BRIDGE AFTER HURRICANE KATRINA (2005)
The hurricane caused $156.3B in damages
INCREASE IN NATURAL DISASTERS

FLOODED BANKS OF THE SEINE (2016)
The May-June flood affecting the northern half
of France caused €1.4B in damages
©Thesupermat–2016-CCBY-SA4.0

DON MUANG AIRPORT SHUT DOWN BY FLOODING IN THAILAND (2011)
The disaster caused €33B in damages
©SirAlex/Shutterstock.com–2011

HURRICANE IRMA’S PATH OF DESTRUCTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN (2017)
The natural disaster caused $80.8B in damages and killed 105 people (EM-DAT)
©DevastationoftheislandofJostVanDykeafterhurricaneIrma-DFID-UKDepartmentforInternationalDevelopment–2017-CCBY2.0

I. RESILIENCE: A NECESSITY IN THE
FACE OF CLIMATE CHANGE
II. THE CRITICAL CHALLENGES AHEAD
III. DEVELOPING RESILIENT
SOLUTIONS

I. RESILIENCE:
A NECESSITY IN THE FACE
OF CLIMATE CHANGE

1. A GLOBAL PHENOMENON
WITH LOCAL CONSEQUENCES

CLIMATE CHANGE
“Any change in climate over
time, whether due to natural
variability or as a result of
human activity”
IPCC, 2007

THE HUMAN-INDUCED DRIVERS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Human
activity
Greenhouse gas
emissions
Climate
change
Demographic
spike
Economic
growth
Environmental
impact

Periodic
climate shocks
Gradual evolution of
climate factors
A GLOBAL PHENOMENON WITH LOCAL CONSEQUENCES
Typology of climate risks
Climate change will affect each region differently

THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE FACTORS
Sea level Thermohaline
circulation
Wind patterns Air quality
Air
temperature
Rainfall
patterns
Melting
permafrost

PERIODIC CLIMATE SHOCKS
Flooding Tropical
cyclones
Storms Forest fires Extreme
temperatures
Frost / Thaw DroughtShrink / swell of
clay
Landslide

2. TOWARDS RESILIENCE IN
INFRASTRUCTURE

“Climate change has happened because of
human behavior, therefore it is only natural
that it should be us, as human beings, to
address this issue. It may not be too late if
we take decisive actions today.”
Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary-General (2007-2016)
Speech at 45th World Economic Forum,
January 23, 2015
©WorldEconomicForum-2008-CCBY-SA2.0

CLIMATE RESILIENCE
Capacity of a system, society or
infrastructure to resist and absorb a
climate disturbance and to return to its
initial state, while reducing its
vulnerability to future disturbances
© Cheonggyecheon – Rich & Cheryl – 2013 - CC BY-NC-SA 2.0
Greenspace reclaims a former
highway in Seoul

QUALITIES OF A RESILIENT SYSTEM
RESOURCEFUL
Facilitated
reallocation of
resources
REFLECTIVE
Able to
learn
ROBUST
Limits the
propagation of flaws
FLEXIBLE
Alternative
strategies
REDUNDANT
Back-up
capacities
INCLUSIVE
Input and
involvement of
stakeholders
INTEGRATED
Systems that
work together
as a whole

FUNCTIONAL RESILIENCE
Operation in fail-soft mode while ensuring a minimum service level in the
absence of the usual resources
Resistance
Absorption
Recovery

TWO TYPES OF RESILIENT MEASURES
Adaptation
Manage the
inevitable
Attenuation
Avoid the
unmanageable

Resistance Withdrawal Coexistence Recovery
FOUR STRATEGIES FOR ADAPTING TO RISKS

Coexistence RecoveryResistance Withdrawal
REINFORCING PROTECTION SYSTEMS AND STRUCTURES AGAINST RISK
Fortifying the Perrotine dyke (Saint-Pierre-d’Oléron, 2017)
©GillesDELACUVELLERIE–PhotothèqueVINCI-2005

ABANDONING A REGION’S DEVELOPMENT
The only house left standing after the Saguenay flood (Quebec, 1994)
©0x010C-2016–CCBY4.0

DEVELOPING TO LIVE WITH CLIMATE RISK
A floating house can mitigate the risk of sudden high waters
©Kröslin,Allemagne-2013

TWO WAYS OF SUPPORTING POST CRISIS RECOVERY:
“BUILD BACK BETTER” OR “FRAGILE BUT AGILE”
After Irma, six schoolrooms will be rebuilt through the Logelis Build Back Better
strategy (Saint-Martin, 2017)
©LavilledeMarigotsurl'îledeSaint-Martin,deuxjoursaprèsl'ouraganIRMA-UIISC1-2017-CCBY-SA4.0

II. THE CRITICAL
CHALLENGES AHEAD

“The warnings about global warming have
been extremely clear for a long time. We
are facing a global climate crisis. It is
deepening. We are entering a period of
consequences.”
Al Gore, Vice President of the United States (1993-2001)
Speech given at the Sierra Club National Convention on
September 9, 2005
©AlGore–SSEE–2016-CCBY-SA4.0

Ecosystem and
biodiversity
Economy Health
Access to
resources
Geopolitical
instability
Climate
migration
INABILITY TO ADAPT TO CHANGING HABITATS AND ENVIRONMENTS
Coral bleaching caused by rising ocean temperatures and acidification
©BentSeaRodBleaching(Florida)-U.S.GeologicalSurvey-2014–CC0

EACH THREATENED FOOD SOURCE UPSETS THE ENTIRE SUPPLY CHAIN
This applies across every sector: agriculture, fishing, construction, retail, insurance, tourism, etc.
Ecosystem and
biodiversity
Economy Health
Access to
resources
Geopolitical
instability
Climate
migration

CHANGING DISTRIBUTIONS OF DISEASE VECTORS AND ALLERGENS
Pollen season could become longer and more severe (Inserm, 2017)
Ecosystem and
biodiversity
Economy Health
Access to
resources
Geopolitical
instability
Climate
migration

THREATENED SUPPLY CHAIN AND FOOD INSECURITY
In Cape Town, drought led to a water restriction of 50L/day per resident (2018)
Ecosystem and
biodiversity
Economy Health
Access to
resources
Geopolitical
instability
Climate
migration
©MarkFisher/Shutterstock.com-2018

WORSENING OF CONFLICT WHEN VITAL RESOURCES RUN SHORT
Syria’s 2006-2010 drought is one of the factors behind the current civil war
Ecosystem and
biodiversity
Economy Health
Access to
resources
Geopolitical
instability
Climate
migration
©FreeSyrianArmysoldierwalkingamongrubbleinAleppoduringtheSyriancivilwar-VoiceofAmericaNews:ScottBobbreportsfromAleppo,Syria-2012

THE WORLD’S POOREST REGIONS ARE MOST VULNERBLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Climate refugee camp, an artwork by activist Hermann Josef Hack (Hanover, 2009)
Ecosystem and
biodiversity
Economy Health
Access to
resources
Geopolitical
instability
Climate
migration
©Sven-ChristianKindler-2009–CCBY2.0

ALREADY A HIGH GLOBAL COST
Total cost of
natural disasters
in 2017 (Swiss Re)
330Billion

In France, the cost of natural disasters could double in 25 years due to climate
change, the increase in the country’s total wealth and unfavorable regional
development (FFA, 2015)
€48B
in damages
from 1988 to 2013
€92B
in damages expected
from 2014 to 2039
THE RISING COST OF CLIMATE DISASTERS

Regional
interdependence
Demographic growth
and urbanization
Increasing challenges
in at-risk areas
MORE VULNERABLE REGIONS
60% of the world’s population will live in cities by 2030 (ONU, 2018)

INFRASTRUCTURE: A CRITICAL COMPONENT OF ADAPTATION
Housing Energy Production Communication
Protection Transport Water & sanitationStorage
75% of infrastructure cities will need in 2050 has not been built
(GIB, 2014)
A unique chance to include resilience in their design: Resilience by design

SETBACKS TO ADAPTATION
Science & technology
Financial
Social & cultural
Governance & institutions
In light of uncertain long-term projections, greater knowledge
and advances in modeling will be needed
Access to funding and implementing adaptation measures is
often costly
Informing stakeholders about climate change and the various
levels of acceptable risk can inhibit the formation of a
common strategy and ability to take responsibility for the
phenomenon
Increasing stakeholders makes it harder to take decisions and
implement regional adaptation strategies

A. Operational risks to business continuity
Due to periodic climate shocks
B. Long-term risks to the contract economy
Due to the gradual evolution of climate parameters

A. OPERATIONAL RISKS TO BUSINESS CONTINUITY
DUE TO PERIODIC CLIMATE SHOCKS
Damage to equipment Health and safety Business and worksite
stoppage
Environmental

DAMAGE TO A CONSTRUCTION CRANE BECAUSE OF HURRICANE IRMA (Miami, 2017)

EXTREME WEATHER WILL INCREASE THE PHYSICAL HARDSHIP AND ACCIDENT RISK OF JOBS:
CRAMPING, FROSTBITE, EXHAUSTION, DEHYDRATION OR HEAT EXPOSURE THREATENS
WORKSITE SAFETY

43 FLIGHTS CANCELLED BY AMERICAN AIRLINES DUE TO EXTREME HEAT (Phoenix, June 20, 2017)
©Braboowi–2010-CCBY-SA3.0

WITH MELTING PERMAFROST, FLOODING, LANDSLIDES AND AVALANCHES,
NETWORK FAILURES REPRESENT AN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK
©PipelineinAlaska-2015

B. LONG-TERM RISKS TO THE CONTRACT ECONOMY
DUE TO THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION OF CLIMATE PARAMETERS
Operation and
maintenance spending
Performance of
structures
Contractual
penalties
Infrastructure
maladjustment
Ineligibility for “green
funding”

INCREASE IN BUILDING ENERGY USE DUE TO RISING AVERAGE TEMPERATURES

THE LIFESPAN OF STRUCTURES WILL BE ALTERED IF PHENOMENA SUBJECT TO CLIMATE CHANGE
– SUCH AS SHRINK-SWELL CAPACITY OF SOIL – IS NOT ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE DESIGN PHASE

CONTRACTUAL RISK DEPENDS ON A CONSIDERATION OF EXPOSURE TO CERTAIN CLIMATE RISKS
WHEN DRAFTING CONTRACT CLAUSES
©FrancisVigouroux-PhotothèqueVINCI-Enginsdesalageetdedéneigementsurl’A10–2018

THE FINANCE COMMUNITY INCREASINGLY REQUIRES PROJECTS TO MEET CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION CRITERIA BEFORE ALLOCATING INVESTMENTS
©TheWorldBankGroupheadquartersbuildingsinWashington,D.C.–AgnosticPreachersKid–2008-CCBY-SA3.0

NEED TO ADAPT RUNWAYS DUE TO THE CHANGING DIRECTION OF PREVAILING WINDS
©HonoluluAirportRunway-rharrison/wikicommons–2008-CCBY-SA3.0

DECLINING TRAFFIC AT CERTAIN AIRPORTS CURRENTLY BENEFITTING FROM SEASONAL TOURISM
©AltiportdeCourchevel-2017

III. DEVELOPING
RESILIENCE SOLUTIONS

CONVERGENCE OF INITIATIVES
Insurance
Parametric insurance
Weather derivatives trading
Cat bonds
Institutions
Paris climate agreement
Connected Cities network
Multilateral backers
Standards
Norms
Resilience label for French cities
HQE Resilience

A GLOBAL NETWORK OF CITIES: THE C40
The C40 connects
urban stakeholders and
mayors worldwide to
encourage stronger
collective action on
climate issues

ANOTHER GLOBAL NETWORK OF CITIES: THE 100RC
The 100 Resilient Cities
(100RC) network aims
help cities around the
world withstand the
physical, social and
economic challenges
of the 21st century

AXA GLOBAL PARAMETRICS
COVERS CLIMATE DISTURBANCES
Compensation is paid when a weather
parameter associated with
the customer’s losses reaches a
predetermined threshold
Insurance covering the cost of additional
defrosting for aircraft during prolonged periods
of low temperatures

THE NEW INTERNATIONAL NORM:
ISO 37101
The ISO 37101 norm offers assistance to
municipalities to improve the sustainable,
smart or resilient nature of strategies,
programs and plans

THE NEW STANDARD:
THE RESILIENCE THEME OF NF HABITAT HQE
In early 2018, a “resilience” section was
added to the NF Habitat HQE certification
to encourage building design to account
for risks posed to buildings by natural
hazards. To that end, it inventories the
potential impacts for each hazard in order
to implement adaptation measures
PHOTO A
CHANGER

2. INNOVATIVE SOLUTIONS
FOR INFRASTRUCTURE
RESILIENCE

1. Technical solutions
2. Software development and data processing
3. New lines of resilient services
4. Rethinking urban development

O2D GREEN (O2D ENVIRONMENT) TURF SLAB IS A SUSTAINABLE SOLUTION FOR RAINWATER
INFILTRATION, REDUCING HEAT ISLAND EFFECT AND PRESERVING SOIL BIODIVERSITY
©O2DENVIRONNEMENT

POWER ROAD® MITIGATES URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND REDUCES SNOW ACCUMULATION ON
ROADWAYS BY STORING SOLAR ENERGY

POROUS ASPHALTS MITIGATE FLOODING BY CREATING ROADS WITH HIGH WATER RETENTION

URBAN CANOPEE DEVELOPS WATER AND ENERGY AUTONOMOUS GREEN CANOPIES
ABOVE THE CITY TO CREATE COOL ISLANDS
©Corolle–URBANCANOPEE-2018

THE ANTI-CIGARETTE BUTT TRENCH & RUNNER IN REINFORCED CONCRETE USED BY ESCOTA TO
PREVENT FOREST FIRES DURING PERIODS OF SUMMER DROUGHT
©M.Martini–PhotothèqueESCOTA-2004
©M.Martini–PhotothèqueESCOTA-2011

LOGELIS, THE MAKER OF “ECOLOW-COST HIGH QUALITY” KIT HOMES HAS ALREADY HELPED
MEET THE URGENT REBUILDING NEEDS IN SAINT-MARTIN
©LavilledeMarigotsurl'îledeSaint-Martin,deuxjoursaprèsl'ouraganIRMA-UIISC1-2017-CCBY-SA4.0

THE RESILIENT TUNNEL PLUG DEVELOPED BY WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY, A GIANT
INFLATABLE BALLOON TO PLUG TUNNELS IN CASE OF FLOODING
©USDepartmentofHomelandSecurity–2018

HAND (Hackers Against Natural Disasters) UNITES HACKTIVISTS TO DEVELOP AN ACTION PLAN
AND DECENTRALIZED ORGANIZATION FOR CRISIS SITUATIONS

GEOSCOPE MANAGES DATA IN REAL TIME TO MANAGE RISKS THROUGH PROACTIVE
OVERSIGHT OF STRUCTURES
©PhotothèqueSIXENSE

SCORE ICU (E6 & ACPP) IS A TOOL FOR MONITORING THE FORESEEABLE IMPACT OF
DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS ON URBAN HEAT ISLANDS
Place des Jacobins in LYON, France
Initial state
ICU score: 0.764 ICU score: 0.693
Projection

CLS (Satellite Location Collection) OFFERS SATELLITE TOOLS AND SERVICES FOR MONITORING
WATER RESOURCES AND THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING

TEMPERATE (AZAVEA & ICLEI-USA), ADAPTATION STRATEGY PLANNING SOFTWARE THAT
ACCOUNTS FOR FUTURE CLIMATE DATA BASED ON RECOGNIZED MODELS AND SCENARIOS,
FOR AMERICAN CITIES

THE PRAGUE FLOOD MODEL, UPDATED REGULARLY, HELPED PUT IN PLACE AN EMERGENCY
PLAN THAT HAS ALREADY AIDED WITH FLOODING IN DOWNTOWN BY LOCATING THE MOST
VULNERABLE POINTS
©Sovovymlyny–Che/Wikicommons-2006–CCBY-SA2.5

OPENCLIMATEGIS (ESGF-COG), OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE DESIGNED FOR MANIPULATING
GEOSPATIAL CLIMATE DATA
79
©USClimateResilienceToolkit/NOAA

COPERNICUS, THE EU’S EARTH MONITORING PROGRAM, HELPS EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
BOOST THEIR CAPACITY FOR MANAGING RISKS BY IMPROVING THEIR CLIMATE DATA
©CaliforniainflamesbySentinel-2-EuropeanSpaceAgency-ContainsmodifiedCopernicusSentineldata(2017)–CCBY-SA3.0IGO

RESALLIENCE, VINCI’S DESIGN OFFICE DEDICATED TO ADAPTING PROJECTS,
INFRASTRUCTURE AND THEIR USES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

UBYRISK CONSULTANTS, A SPECIALIST IN NATURAL RISK RESEARCH, CONSULTING AND
EXPERTISE, OFFERS A SERVICE FOR PUTTING NATURAL THREATS IN PERSPECTIVE WITH
RESPECT TO EXPECTED CLIMATE CHANGE
Droit et photo en attente : d’ici fin aout/début
septembre
83
©UbyriskConsultants

PREDICT SERVICES HELPS RISK MANAGERS TO MAKE THE RIGHT DECISIONS
BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER CRISIS
©VigieFrance-PredictServices-2015

EQUO VIVO, VINCI CONSTRUCTION’S BRAND DEDICATED TO ECOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT
PROJECTS : RESTORING BIODIVERSITY - DESIGNING AND COMPLETING ECOLOGICAL
DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS - MAINTAINING ECOLOGICAL CONTINUITY
The ecological restoration of the Hermance
allowed to mitigate flood impacts
©EquoVivo

DHI FRANCE MANAGES WATER ISSUES WHILE TAKING CLIMATE CHANGE INTO ACCOUNT TO
HELP ITS CUSTOMERS IMPLEMENT ADAPTATION STRATEGIES: MANAGING AND ASSESSING
URBAN FLOODS, WATER SHORTAGES, ETC.

URBALIA CONTRIBUTES TO CITY RESILIENCE BY REINFORCING THE ROLE OF NATURE TO
RECREATE FUNCTIONAL ECOSYSTEMS.
©Urbalia

WATER SQUARE BENTHEMPLEIN, INNOVATIVE USAGES COMBINING RECREATIONAL SPACE
WITH A RAINWATER COLLECTION BASIN (ROTTERDAM)
©Waterplein(DeUrbanisten)-OssipvanDuivenbode–2015

MAKOKO FLOATING SCHOOL, MOBILE INFRASTRUCTURE ADAPTABLE
TO CHANGES IN TIDES AND SEA LEVEL (LAGOS)
©NLÉ,IwanBaan,GeorgeOsodi–MakokoFloatingSchool(Nléproject)-2013

GARDENS BY THE BAY HOUSES “SUPERTREES” COVERED WITH VEGETATION THAT SUPPORT
PHOTOVOLTAIC SOLAR CELLS AND A RAINWATER COLLECTION SYSTEM (SINGAPORE)

CHEONGGYECHEON, A FORMER STREAM REDEVELOPED IN PLACE OF A HIGHWAY
TO KEEP SOILS FROM LOSING PERMEABILITY (SEOUL)
©Superde1uxe–2010–CCBY2.0

TÅSINGE PLADS SQUARE, A PARK REDEVELOPMENT PROJECT BY TREDJE NATUR
TO ABSORB HEAVY RAINS VIA A COLLECTION NETWORK (COPENHAGEN)
©TåsingeSquareVisualisation-TredjeNatur–2012

IN IOWA, HISTORIC DATA IS USED TO MAKE INFRASTRUCTURE MORE ROBUST BY IDENTIFYING
THE MOST VULNERABLE STRUCTURES AND ADAPTING THEM TO FUTURE FLOODS (USA)

BIG U, THE PROJECT TO REDEVELOP MANHATTAN’S LOWER BANKS INTO NEW LIVING SPACES
TO PROTECT AGAINST FLOODING TIED TO RISING SEA LEVEL AND HURRICANES (NEW-YORK)
©TheBIGTeam/RebuildbyDesign

“Every credible scientific source is telling
us that these impacts will only get worse
if we do not address climate change and
it also tells us that our window of time for
addressing it is closing very soon. To do
this, we need to dramatically increase our
ambitions.”
Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of UN Climate
Change
Opening speech at the Bonn climate change conference on April
30, 2018
©CTBTOPreparatoryCommission(JamesLeynse)–2011-CC-BY-2.0

CRISIS MANAGEMENT,
CRUCIAL FOR GUARDING
AGAINST HAZARDS

EU SEQUANA 2016
A EUROPE-WIDE CRISIS MANAGEMENT EXERCISE SIMULATING A 10-YEAR FLOOD
IN ILE-DE-FRANCE FROM MARCH 7-18, 2016
Operate the European civil
protection system
Focus attention on flood
phenomenon
Bring together partners and
stakeholders in the Paris region to
improve coordination of their
actions
Result: the May-June 2016 floods, the exercise, which took places
upstream, helped to streamline crisis management procedures

CLIMATE HAZARDS:
THE GRADUAL EVOLUTION
OF CLIMATE PARAMETRS

SEA LEVEL CHANGE
Estimate of global average sea level by 2100 based on 1986-
2005 and according to 4 RCP scenarios.
© Climate Change 2013 : The Physical Science Basis / IPCC – figure 13.11 - 2013
Since the middle 20th century, 13
islands have already been recorded as
lost in the Pacific Ocean. The first
victims were the Solomon Islands and
Micronesia.
The IPCC defines eustatic change of sea level as a change in the
global average sea level due to a variation in the volume of the
world’s oceans
©AtollSikaiana(SolomonIslands)-JohnsonSpaceCenteroftheUnitedStates/NASA–2001

AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
Projection of the change in average surface temperatures, in Celsius, by 2081-
2100 based on 1986-2005 according to the most optimistic scenario (left) and
the most pessimistic scenario (right). The projection is based on the CMIP5
model.
© Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report / IPCC – figure 2.2 - 2014
Some regions are affected more
rapidly than others, such as the ice
caps. Polar regions warm twice as fast
as the rest of the planet, according to
ADEME.
According to the IPCC, temperature change, notably planetary
warming, is caused primarily by an increase in greenhouse gas,
which traps infrared light. In this way, heat is retained and the
Earth’s land and ocean surface heats in a heterogenous manner.
©AntarticPeninsula-JeffSchmaltz/NASAEarthObservatory–2011

Projection of the percentage change in average annual rainfall on the Earth’s
surface by 2081-2100 based on 1986-2005 according to the most optimistic
scenario (left) and the most pessimistic scenario (right). The projection is based
on the CMIP5 model.
RAINFALL PATTERNS
The IPCC explains changing rainfall patterns by the variation in
atmospheric moisture (warming oceans, melting glaciers, etc.)
via the action of greenhouse gases within the troposphere and
aerosols on the structure of cloud formations.
© Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report / IPCC – figure 2.2 - 2014

WIND PATTERNS
Atmospheric circulation with the
Hadley, Farrell and polar cells
influencing regional climates.
© Kaidor– 2013 - CC BY-SA 3.0
Projected change, in meters
per second, of zonal winds
(west to east) at 850hPa by
2016-2035 based on
1986-2005 and according
to the RCP 4.5 scenario. The
projection is based on the
CMIP5 multi-model.
© Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis / IPCC – figure 11.15 - 2013
According to ADEME, the circulation of air masses
disturbed by global warming, will modify the wind
patterns. The intensity and direction of prevailing
winds are susceptible to change.

MELTING PERMAFROST
The IPCC defines permafrost as permanently frozen soil, present
when temperatures remain below 0°C for several years.
However, as atmospheric temperatures rise, permafrost
disappears.
Projected change, in square kilometers, of
permafrost in the Northern Hemisphere by
2100 based on 1986-2005 and according
to different RCP scenarios. The projection is
based on the CMIP5 multi-model. Thick
lines correspond to the multi-model
average. Thin lines indicate inter-model
spread (standard deviation). The black line is
calculated based on the average of
reanalysis of ECMWF, ERA, JRA, MERRA and
CFSRR. The current estimated level of
permafrost is around 12 and 17 million km2
(Zhang et al., 2000). © Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis / IPCC – figure 12.33 - 2013
Thermokarst, the melting of
permafrost, releases carbon dioxide
(CO2) and methane, two powerful
greenhouse gases, into the
atmosphere
©TeshekpukLakeandthew:AlaskaNorthSlope.-NASA–2000

CLIMATE HAZARDS:
PERIODIC CLIMATE SHOCKS

FLOODING
Projected percentage change in the
maximum annual accumulation of
precipitation over five days by
2081-2100 based on 1981-2000
and according to the RCP 8.5
scenario. The 2010 floods in Pakistan killed
1,760 and left 10 million homeless
according to the UN. Damages are
estimated $9.5B according to EM-
DAT.
The French government defines flooding as a temporary
submersion in water of land that is not ordinarily inundated,
regardless of cause. According to the IPCC, that can lead to
flooded rivers, urban runoff, coastal flooding by seawater
inundation or glacial lake outburst flood.
©U.S.ArmySgt.MonicaK.Smith–2010-CC-BY-2.0

TROPICAL CYCLONES
The IPCC defines tropical cyclones as a powerful cyclonic
depression forming above tropical waters. They are
distinguished from weaker systems (often called depressions or
tropical disturbances) by exceeding a wind speed threshold. In
this way, a tropical storm when surface winds reach an average
speed of 18-32 m s-1 per minute. Beyond 32 m s-1, the
tropical cyclone is called a hurricane or typhoon, depending on
the region where it originates.
Hurricane Isabel caused $3.6B in
damages and killed 47 people in 2003
in the Caribbean and eastern seaboard
of the US and Canada, according to
NOAA and NCDC.
©ClimateChange2013:ThePhysicalScienceBasis/IPCC–figure14.17-2013

STORMS
The French government defines storms as atmospheric
disturbances (or depressions) that form when two air masses
with distinct characteristics (temperature, humidity) meet and
cause potentially strong winds. Unlike tropical cyclones, they
may continue to grow in strength while moving across land.
Heavy rain, snow and thunderstorms may accompany the strong
winds.
Sables d'Olonne embankment after the
storm Xynthia in 2010 killed 47 in
France and cost €1.5B in damages
according to the French Federation of
Insurance Companies.
©Freeminder~commonswiki–2010–CCBY-SA2.0

CLIMATE CHANGE, TROPICAL CYCLONES
AND STORMS
Projected percentage change in the
occurrence and intensity of tropical
cyclones by cyclone basin by 2081-2100
based on 2000-2019 according to a
scenario similar to A1B.
Four parameters were taken into
account: percentage variation of (I) the
total annual frequency of tropical storms,
(II) the annual frequency of category 4
and 5 storms, (III) the average lifetime
maximum intensity (LMI) and (IV) the
precipitation rate under 200 km from the
eye of the storm at the time of the LMI.
For each measurement, the solid blue
line is the best estimate of the expected
percentage change and the colored bar
indicates confidence interval of 67%
(probable) for this value. If no metric is
shown, sufficient data is not available to
perform an assessment.© Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis / IPCC – figure 14.17 - 2013

DROUGHT
In Somalia, nomadic livestock farmers are greatly
impacted by 25 years of successive drought and food
crises affecting the entire Horn of Africa.
© Oxfam East Africa – Somaliland Drought– 2012 - CC-BY-2.0
Projected change in the annual number of consecutive
dry days (with daily precipitation under 1mm) by 2081-
2100 based on 1981-2000 and according to the RCP 8.5
scenario. The projection is based on the CMIP5 model.
The IPCC defines drought as a phenomenon that occurs when
precipitation falls well below the normal recorded rates, causing
a serious water imbalance with potentially devastating affects
on resource production.

112
FOREST FIRES
Dry conditions increase the likelihood of forest fires,
which, together with human activities, can compromise
the forest’s resilience to climate change.
© State Farm – 2007 – CC-BY-2.0
According to the French government, forest
fires occur primarily during drought periods
when plants have a low water content. They
may have natural causes (lightning, volcanic
eruption) or human causes (criminal or
accidental).
San Diego threatened by California’s
forest fires in October 2007. 8 people
died and material damages reached
$2.8B according to EM-DAT.
In December 2017, California was once
again ravaged by 29 forest fires causing
$2.2B in damages (EM-DAT)
© Thomas Fire - Kari Greer / US Forest Service – 2017 – CC BY 2.0

EXTREME TEMPERATURES
In France the National Heat Wave Plan
(PNC) is put in place on June 1. In Paris,
heat waves start when daytime
temperatures exceed 31°C and nocturnal
temperatures exceed 21°C for 3
consecutive days.
Phenomenon and
anticipated change
Evaluation of the probability of change since 1950 Evaluation of the human
contribution to observed
changes
Probability of other
changes in the early
21st century
Probability of other
changes in the late
21st century
Heat waves/periods more
frequent and/or longer on
most exposed land
Average level of confidence globally.
Probable in large portions of Europe, Asia and Australia
Probable No formal evaluation Highly probable
Average level of confidence in many regions (but not all)
Probable
No formal evaluation
More probable than
improbable
Highly probable
Evaluation of change in extreme temperature waves
for the start (2016-2035) and end (2081-2100) of
the 22st century.
© JB Gurliat / Marie de Paris – 2018
The IPCC defines extreme temperature waves (heat wave and
cold snaps) as periods of harsh and abnormally hot or cold
atmospheric conditions over a given period. In France, heat
waves correspond to at least 3 consecutive days and nights of
intense heat and cold snaps to at least 2 consecutive days of
intense cold.

Rising moisture and precipitation in certain regions,
combined with unfavorable land development, may
increase the number of landslides linked to water.
LANDSLIDES
On December 15, 1999, heavy rains caused a
landslide in the state of Vargas in Venezuela,
causing at least 30,000 deaths and $1.8B in
damages according to USGS.
The IPCC defines a landslide as a mass of
material that has moved downhill by gravity,
often assisted by water when the material is
saturated; rapid movement of soil, rock or
debris down a slope.
©L.M.Smith,WaterwaysExperimentStation,U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineer-1999

THE QUALITIES OF A
RESILIENT SYSTEM

A REFLECTIVE SYSTEM
According to 100RC, reflective people and institutions use
past experiences to inform future decisions and modify
norms and behaviors in turn.
Example:
A reflective planning process is more apt to respond to new circumstances
Source : 100RC

A ROBUST SYSTEM
According to 100RC, a robust project is well designed, built
and managed. It includes measures to ensure that failures are
predictable, safe and not disproportionate to their cause.
Example:
Robust protection infrastructure will not break down in a catastrophic way
when the design thresholds are exceeded
Source : 100RC

A FLEXIBLE SYSTEM
According to 100RC, flexibility refers to the drive and capacity
to adopt alternative strategies in response to changing
circumstances or sudden crises. Systems can be made more
flexible by introducing new technologies or knowledge,
notably by recognizing traditional practices.
Example:
In a period of crisis, cities can reassign city buses for emergency
evacuations.
Source : 100RC

AN INTEGRATED SYSTEM
According to 100RC, integrated processes combine systems
and institutions and can also trigger additional benefits as
long as resources are shared and stakeholders can work
together to achieve greater goals.
Example:
Integrated urban planning enables a city to cope with multidisciplinary
problems, such as an emergency response to catastrophe through
coordination
Source : 100RC

A RESOURCEFUL SYSTEM
According to 100RC, resourceful people and institutions can
recognize other ways to use resources during crises to meet
their needs or achieve their goals
Example:
Although households in the cities of Chile’s central valley use water provided
by municipal networks, service is frequently out after strong earthquakes. In
response, many households have wells to maintain their water supply.
Source : 100RC

A REDUNDANT SYSTEM
According to 100RC, redundancy refers to the reserves
available for coping with disturbances caused by extreme
stress, demand spikes or external events. This includes a
diversity of ways to meet a given need.
Example:
Redundant energy systems deliver several solutions for supplying networks
during demand spikes or service outages
Source : 100RC

AN INCLUSIVE SYSTEM
According to 100RC, inclusive processes focus on expanded
cooperation aiming to create a shared vision and a feeling of
shared ownership in order to build resilient cities
Example:
Advance warnings enable at-risk populations to protect themselves and
minimize human and material damages
Source : 100RC

FOCUS ON FUNCTIONAL RESILIENCE:
THE BUSINESS CONTINUITY PLAN
To be resilient in response to a natural
catastrophe, a business or institution will
need to implement a business continuity
plan (BCP) to maintain a minimum level of
service without its usual human and material
resources.
This includes a strategic document updated
regularly to plan the reaction to adopt in
response to a hazard in order to minimize the
impact on business.
In practice:
• In response to a climate shock like a
tropical cyclone, this may include taking
cover to protect staff, equipment and
installations, while working to restore
priority activities within a short time frame
• In response to a prolonged episode, it may
involve a backup for the portion of the
company that can be backed up

Urban resilience and infrastructure | Emerging Trends #3 _ v2

Urban resilience and infrastructure | Emerging Trends #3 _ v2

More Related Content

What's hot

Similar to Urban resilience and infrastructure | Emerging Trends #3 _ v2

More from Leonard

Recently uploaded

Urban resilience and infrastructure | Emerging Trends #3 _ v2