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Using Hierarchical Modeling to Assist Effects Based Planning and Assessment Lt Col Dave “Doc” Denhard, PhD Maj Robert “Dagwood” Umstead Air Force Institute of Technology Wright-Patterson, Air Force Base Ohio United States The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or  position of the Air Force, Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. Contact info: [email_address] 01-937-255-3355 X3325
Overview ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Effects-Based Operations Enemy Systems of Systems Model Effect 1 Action (via Resource) [Node A] [Node B] [Node C] Friendly Course of Action (COA) Against  An Enemy System Node Effect 2 (Desired) Effect 3 (Undesired) Objective “ Operations that are  planned, executed, assessed, and adapted based on a holistic understanding  of the operational environment in order to influence or change  system behavior  or  capabilities   using the integrated application of selected instruments of power to achieve directed policy aims.”  JFCOM JWFC Doctrine Pamphlet 7, Nov 04 Political Political Social Social Military Economic Economic Information Information Infrastructure Infrastructure A B C
AFIT EBO Research Stream Approach Potential Methods for Exploration Effort Description ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Dynamic Bayesian Nets Influence Networks Petri Networks E-calculus Qualitative Probabilistic Nets Game Theory Fuzzy Set Theory Dempster-Shafer Theory Possibility Logic Value-Focused Thinking Multi-Criteria Decision Making Social Network Analysis Risk Analysis Event/Fault Tree Analysis Simulation System Dynamics Complexity Theory Effort Duration ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Dimensionality  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
COA through the EBO Prism ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
RFRM Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Guiding Principles ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
COA Development, Evaluation, and Selection Process ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Develop Evaluate COA Selection
Steps 1 (Identification) & 2 (Resource Filtering) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Step 3 (Phase & Scope Filtering) & Step 4 (Quantitative Eval, Ranking, & Filtering) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Step 5 (Risk Filtering) ,[object Object],P s  = probability of success Low to Negligible  Risk Negligible Negligible COA 3 (Ps  < .5) Low Low COA 4 (Ps  < .4) COA 1 (Ps  < .7) Medium Medium COA 2 (Ps  < .2) High High High to Extreme  Risk, High Priority Extreme Extreme High High Medium Medium Low Low Low to Negligible  Risk Negligible Negligible COA 3 (P s   < .5) Low Low COA 4 (P s   < .4) COA 1 (P s   < .7) Medium Medium COA 2 (P s   < .2) High High High to Extreme  Risk, High Priority Extreme Extreme High High Medium Medium Low Low Risk To Risk To Forces Forces Effects Effects Priority Priority
Step 6 (Safeguarding) ,[object Object],[object Object]
Deliberate Vs. Crisis Action Planning ,[object Object],[object Object]
Observations ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Continuing AFIT Research ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
End of Using Hierarchical Modeling to Assist Effects Based Planning and Assessment Presentation

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Effects Based Planning And Assessment

  • 1. Using Hierarchical Modeling to Assist Effects Based Planning and Assessment Lt Col Dave “Doc” Denhard, PhD Maj Robert “Dagwood” Umstead Air Force Institute of Technology Wright-Patterson, Air Force Base Ohio United States The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Air Force, Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. Contact info: [email_address] 01-937-255-3355 X3325
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  • 3. Effects-Based Operations Enemy Systems of Systems Model Effect 1 Action (via Resource) [Node A] [Node B] [Node C] Friendly Course of Action (COA) Against An Enemy System Node Effect 2 (Desired) Effect 3 (Undesired) Objective “ Operations that are planned, executed, assessed, and adapted based on a holistic understanding of the operational environment in order to influence or change system behavior or capabilities using the integrated application of selected instruments of power to achieve directed policy aims.” JFCOM JWFC Doctrine Pamphlet 7, Nov 04 Political Political Social Social Military Economic Economic Information Information Infrastructure Infrastructure A B C
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  • 17. End of Using Hierarchical Modeling to Assist Effects Based Planning and Assessment Presentation

Editor's Notes

  1. Authors: Lt Col Dave Denhard Assistant Professor Department of Operational Sciences Air Force Institute of Technology Maj Robert Umstead Student, School of Advanced Military Studies Ft. Leavenworth, KS