21st century effort estimation methods from JPL. Jairus Hihn (JPL), Tim Menzies (WVU), Karen Lum (JPL), Dan Baker (WVU)

1. “ 2cee” A 2 1 st C entury E ffort E stimation Methodology Tim Menzies Dan Baker [email_address] [email_address] Jairus Hihn Karen Lum [email_address] [email_address] 22nd International Forum on COCOMO and Systems/Software Cost Modeling (2007)

4. Some Things We Learned Along the Way

11. Load Historical Data Use Predefined COCOMO Coefficients Bootstrapped Local Calibration Full Local Calibration Nearest Neighbour Local Calibration Optionally Use Manual Or Automatic Feature Selection Optionally Use Manual Stratification 2CEE Define Project Ranges Monte Carlo Project Instances Produce Range of COCOMO Estimates

12. 2CEE Steps Define Model Calibration Evaluate with Cross Validation Define Project Ranges Monte Carlo Estimates

16. Karen will be available at the tool fair Stop in and take a look under the hood

17. Bibliography Current Research Publications Selecting Best Practices for Effort Estimation, IEEE Transactions On Software Engineering , Nov 2006. (Menzies, Chen, Hihn, Lum) Evidence-Based Cost Estimation for Better-Quality Software, IEEE Software , July/August 2006. (Menzies and Hihn ) Studies in Software Cost Model Behavior:Do We Really Understand Cost Model Performance?, Proceedings of the ISPA International Conference 2006 , Seattle, WA. (Lum, Hihn, Menzies) (Best Paper Award) Simple Software Cost Analysis: Safe or Unsafe?, Proceedings of the International Workshop on Predictor Models in Software Engineering ( PROMISE 2005 ), St Louis, MS, 14 June 2005. (Menzies, Port, Hihn , Chen) Feature Subset Selection Improves Software Cost Estimation. ( PROMISE 2005 ), St Louis, MS, 14 June 2005. (Chen, Menzies, Port, Boehm) Validation methods for calibrating software effort models, ICSE 2005 Proceedings , May 2005, St Louis, MS. May 2005. (Menzies, Port, Hihn, Chen) Specialization and Extrapolation of Software Cost Models, Proceeding in Automation in Software Engineering Conference , Nov 2005. (Menzies, Chen, Port, Hihn) Finding the Right Data for Software Cost Modeling, IEEE Software , Nov/Dec 2005. (Chen, Menzies, Port, Boehm)