This document summarizes an SEIR model used to model the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. The model tracks susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered individuals over time. It was able to fit reported case and death data from Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia reasonably well. When updated with more recent data, the model still fit dynamics in Guinea and Sierra Leone but overestimated cases in Liberia. Parameter values like transmission rate and decay rate varied between countries and initial assumptions in the original model were too simplistic.
This document provides information about Ebola virus disease (EVD), including what Ebola is, how it is transmitted, its signs and symptoms, diagnosis, treatment and prevention. Ebola is a severe hemorrhagic fever virus affecting humans and other primates that is transmitted through contact with infected body fluids. It causes sudden onset of fever, muscle pain and may lead to vomiting, diarrhea and internal/external bleeding. While there is no approved vaccine or treatment, basic supportive care such as rehydration can improve survival.
This document provides information about Ebola virus disease (EVD) including its transmission, symptoms, prevention, and the 2014 West Africa outbreak. It details how a Liberian diplomat, Patrick Sawyer, unknowingly spread the disease to Nigeria by traveling there while infected and in denial about his infection. Sawyer came into contact with 59 people in Nigeria and exhibited disruptive behavior at hospitals in both Nigeria and Liberia before succumbing to the disease, highlighting the risks of disregarding medical advice during an outbreak. The document outlines key facts about EVD transmission, symptoms, treatment and prevention measures to raise awareness about the disease.
The document discusses the prevention of Ebola virus infection and associated challenges. It outlines people at risk of infection, case definitions, laboratory tests for diagnosis, screening procedures at airports, isolation and treatment protocols, contact tracing, precautions for healthcare workers, waste management procedures, vaccine candidates, and post-exposure prophylaxis. It identifies challenges to prevention as weak health systems, cultural and economic factors, lack of international cooperation, and technical difficulties in research and developing effective treatments.
The document lists the 10 deadliest viruses in the world and provides details about each. It discusses how influenza, rabies, dengue virus, Marburg virus, Ebola virus, smallpox, HIV, hantavirus, SARS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 are among the deadliest viruses and have killed millions of people worldwide through history or in recent outbreaks. Mortality rates for these viruses range from under 10% to over 80% depending on the virus and outbreak. Many of these viruses originated in animals and jumped to humans, triggering large epidemics and pandemics.
The document discusses the ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. It provides statistics from the WHO warning that the death rate has risen to 70% and there could be up to 10,000 new cases per week within two months. Images show health workers and burial teams working to contain the virus in Liberia, while questions are answered about how the virus spreads and can be prevented from spreading further.
The document discusses the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, which has become one of the largest and deadliest Ebola outbreaks in history. As of August 28, 2014, the WHO reported over 3,000 cases and 1,500 deaths across five countries - Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The outbreak is caused by the Zaire species of the Ebola virus, which is closely related to variants found in previous outbreaks in Central Africa. Fruit bats are believed to be the natural reservoir of the virus, which can be transmitted to humans through contact with infected animal hosts like chimpanzees.
The Ebola virus first emerged in 1976 in Sudan and Zaire. Since then, five strains of the virus have been identified, including the Zaire, Sudan, Bundibugyo, Taï Forest, and Reston strains. Major outbreaks have occurred in Zaire in 1976, Sudan in 2000-2001, and a widespread outbreak in West Africa beginning in 2013 affected Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. As of late 2014, over 13,000 suspected cases and nearly 5,000 deaths had been reported in the West African outbreak. The Ebola virus is classified taxonomically within the family Filoviridae and the genera Ebola virus.
This document provides information about Ebola virus disease (EVD), including what Ebola is, how it is transmitted, its signs and symptoms, diagnosis, treatment and prevention. Ebola is a severe hemorrhagic fever virus affecting humans and other primates that is transmitted through contact with infected body fluids. It causes sudden onset of fever, muscle pain and may lead to vomiting, diarrhea and internal/external bleeding. While there is no approved vaccine or treatment, basic supportive care such as rehydration can improve survival.
This document provides information about Ebola virus disease (EVD) including its transmission, symptoms, prevention, and the 2014 West Africa outbreak. It details how a Liberian diplomat, Patrick Sawyer, unknowingly spread the disease to Nigeria by traveling there while infected and in denial about his infection. Sawyer came into contact with 59 people in Nigeria and exhibited disruptive behavior at hospitals in both Nigeria and Liberia before succumbing to the disease, highlighting the risks of disregarding medical advice during an outbreak. The document outlines key facts about EVD transmission, symptoms, treatment and prevention measures to raise awareness about the disease.
The document discusses the prevention of Ebola virus infection and associated challenges. It outlines people at risk of infection, case definitions, laboratory tests for diagnosis, screening procedures at airports, isolation and treatment protocols, contact tracing, precautions for healthcare workers, waste management procedures, vaccine candidates, and post-exposure prophylaxis. It identifies challenges to prevention as weak health systems, cultural and economic factors, lack of international cooperation, and technical difficulties in research and developing effective treatments.
The document lists the 10 deadliest viruses in the world and provides details about each. It discusses how influenza, rabies, dengue virus, Marburg virus, Ebola virus, smallpox, HIV, hantavirus, SARS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2 are among the deadliest viruses and have killed millions of people worldwide through history or in recent outbreaks. Mortality rates for these viruses range from under 10% to over 80% depending on the virus and outbreak. Many of these viruses originated in animals and jumped to humans, triggering large epidemics and pandemics.
The document discusses the ongoing Ebola outbreak in West Africa. It provides statistics from the WHO warning that the death rate has risen to 70% and there could be up to 10,000 new cases per week within two months. Images show health workers and burial teams working to contain the virus in Liberia, while questions are answered about how the virus spreads and can be prevented from spreading further.
The document discusses the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, which has become one of the largest and deadliest Ebola outbreaks in history. As of August 28, 2014, the WHO reported over 3,000 cases and 1,500 deaths across five countries - Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The outbreak is caused by the Zaire species of the Ebola virus, which is closely related to variants found in previous outbreaks in Central Africa. Fruit bats are believed to be the natural reservoir of the virus, which can be transmitted to humans through contact with infected animal hosts like chimpanzees.
The Ebola virus first emerged in 1976 in Sudan and Zaire. Since then, five strains of the virus have been identified, including the Zaire, Sudan, Bundibugyo, Taï Forest, and Reston strains. Major outbreaks have occurred in Zaire in 1976, Sudan in 2000-2001, and a widespread outbreak in West Africa beginning in 2013 affected Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. As of late 2014, over 13,000 suspected cases and nearly 5,000 deaths had been reported in the West African outbreak. The Ebola virus is classified taxonomically within the family Filoviridae and the genera Ebola virus.
The document provides information about swine flu and answers 16 questions from the CDC about the virus. It discusses that there are different subtypes of swine influenza viruses that infect pigs, including H1N1, H1N2, H3N2, and H3N1. It notes that humans can become infected with swine flu from direct contact with pigs, though human-to-human transmission is rare. Symptoms in humans are similar to seasonal flu. While human infections are uncommon, cases increase risk of a new pandemic strain emerging. There is no vaccine to protect people but antiviral medications can treat infections.
Emerging and reemerging infectious diseasesarijitkundu88
Various emerging and reemerging diseases. Factors contributing to the emergence of infectious diseases. Antibiotic resistance. The global response to control them. Laboratories network in surveillance.
Group 14 will present a podcast on Ebola that covers what it is, how it is transmitted, its symptoms, current outbreak areas, treatment and prevention. Ebola is a deadly virus spread through direct contact with bodily fluids that causes sudden fever, muscle pains and can lead to internal bleeding. The largest outbreak on record started in 2014 in West Africa and spread to several countries. While there is no approved vaccine or treatment, prevention focuses on avoiding infected areas and people along with good hand hygiene.
1. The document is a biology project on the Ebola virus completed by a student. It includes an introduction to Ebola, its classification, symptoms, transmission, diagnosis and prevention.
2. The largest sections cover the epidemiology of Ebola, discussing its natural reservoir in fruit bats and outbreaks in West Africa.
3. Treatment of Ebola focuses on treating symptoms and several vaccine candidates are discussed, though none have been approved.
1. transmission of ebola virus disease an overviewSuresh Rewar
Ebola is a viral illness of which the initial symptoms can include a sudden fever, intense weakness, muscle pain and a sore throat, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Airborne transmission of Ebola virus has been hypothesized but not demonstrated in humans. Ebola is not spread through the air or by water, or in general, by food. However, in Africa, Ebola may be spread as a result of handling bushmeat (wild animals hunted for food) and contact with infected bats. The disease infects
humans through close contact with infected animals, including chimpanzees, fruit bats, and forest antelope. Ebola virus can be transmitted by direct contact with blood, bodily fluids, or skin of patients with or who died of Ebola virus disease. As of late October 2014, the World Health Organization reported 13,567 suspected cases and 4922 deaths, although the agency believes that this substantially understates the magnitude of the outbreak. Experimental vaccines and treatments for Ebola are under development, but they have not yet been fully tested for safety or effectiveness.
This document summarizes information about the Ebola virus, including its characterization, life cycle, transmission, symptoms, outbreaks, treatment and prevention. It describes Ebola virus as a filamentous, enveloped RNA virus that infects monocytes, macrophages and other immune cells. It evades the host immune system and causes hemorrhagic fever through mechanisms such as blocking interferon response. The largest Ebola outbreak occurred in West Africa from 2013-2016. Treatment involves general medical support and isolation, while prevention focuses on avoiding contact with patients, proper PPE and animal surveillance.
The document summarizes the 2009 H1N1 swine flu outbreak. It describes the virus as a hybrid containing genes from human, avian, and swine influenza viruses. Cases were initially reported in Mexico and the US. Symptoms are similar to seasonal flu. Treatment involves antiviral drugs. The virus can spread from pigs to humans and between humans. Precautions are recommended to control spread in healthcare settings.
H1 n1 influenza a disease information for health professionals lindsey_nejm 2009Ruth Vargas Gonzales
1. A novel H1N1 influenza virus emerged in Mexico and the US in April 2009 that was a triple reassortment of human, avian, and swine influenza viruses.
2. Researchers developed PCR tests to identify confirmed cases of the virus and help track the outbreak. Health authorities worldwide are monitoring and trying to control the outbreak.
3. As of early May 2009, the virus was causing mild to moderate illness in most patients. However, some hospitalized patients developed pneumonia or other complications, and two deaths occurred in high-risk patients. The age distribution and symptoms resembled typical seasonal influenza.
5.SANITATION VS VACCINATION- Vaccines Did Not Save Us- Charts and StatisticsAntonio Bernard
1) The document presents data showing that major declines in infectious diseases like measles, pertussis, and tuberculosis occurred before widespread vaccination efforts. This provides evidence that vaccines were not solely responsible for disease elimination.
2) Graphs and studies show artificial immunization is often ineffective or inconsequential for diseases like influenza, tuberculosis, measles and pertussis. In some cases, vaccination appeared to increase risks of disease or other health issues.
3) Data indicates increases in vaccine doses mandated for US children under 5 correlated with rising rates of infant mortality and deaths in children under 5. Studies also link vaccination to sudden infant death syndrome, inflammatory bowel diseases, diabetes and recent rises in autism diagnoses.
Emerging and re-emerging diseses part2 (INCLUDES ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE)Dr. Mamta Gehlawat
2nd half of my ppt on emerging and re-emerging diseases. i uploaded the first half already. pls refer to that too. this ppt has info on AIDS/HIV, ZIKA, EBOLA-MARBURG, MELIODIOSIS, CHOLERA and ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE
This document provides an overview of Ebola virus, including its taxonomy, history, molecular biology, symptoms, diagnosis, treatment, and management. Ebola virus is a negative-sense RNA virus that causes severe hemorrhagic fever in humans and non-human primates. It is transmitted through contact with infected body fluids and has a high fatality rate. The current 2014 outbreak in West Africa involving the Zaire species is the largest on record. There is no approved treatment but supportive care and experimental therapies are being used. Strict isolation protocols are necessary to prevent spread in healthcare settings.
Leptospirosis is a bacterial infection spread through contact with infected animal urine that can cause fever, headache, jaundice and other symptoms. It is more common in warm climates and transmitted through breaks in the skin or mucous membranes. Antibiotics are used to treat it, with more severe cases requiring hospitalization.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is a viral pneumonia caused by a coronavirus. It is spread through droplets from coughs or sneezes of infected individuals or surfaces they touch. Prevention methods include handwashing, wearing masks around infected people, and disinfecting surfaces.
Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral disease caused by
Peste des-ruminants-is-a-rinderpest.doc pdfGudyne Wafubwa
Peste des petits ruminant virus (PPRV) is a disease mostly affecting goats and sheep. Since its first discovery, it has caused massive economic loss to most small pastoralists in Africa and other developing countries. It is the integral role of all stakeholders to join hands so as to eradicate the disease.
An overview on ebola virus disease (evd) or ebola hemorrhagic fever (ehf)pharmaindexing
Ebola virus disease (EVD), also known as Ebola hemorrhagic fever, is a severe and often fatal illness in humans caused by the Ebola virus. The virus is transmitted through contact with infected animals like fruit bats or non-human primates, and then spreads between humans through contact with bodily fluids. Symptoms include fever, headache, muscle pain and weakness followed by vomiting, diarrhea and rash, with fatality rates reaching 90% in some outbreaks. There is no approved vaccine or treatment, though several are in development.
First Human Becomes Infected By H6N1 Bird Flu In TaiwanHarm Kiezebrink
A new bird flu strain called H6N1 has infected its first human.
Taiwanese researchers are reporting the new bird flu appeared in a 20-year-old woman from central Taiwan. The woman had been working in a delicatessen before she began experiencing flu-like symptoms and shortness of breath. She was then hospitalized in May 2013.
Ebola Virus Disease: An Emerging Global Public Health Concernpaperpublications3
Abstract: Ebola virus disease (EVD) formerly known as, Ebola haemorrhagic fever (EHF) is one of the most severe viral HFs often characterized by the sudden onset of fever, intense weakness, muscle pain, headache, sore throat, vomiting, diarrhoea, rash, impaired kidney and liver function, and in some cases, both internal and external bleeding. The 2014 Ebola outbreak is the largest Ebola outbreak in history and the first Ebola outbreak in West Africa affecting multiple countries in West Africa e.g. Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The current outbreak threatens to spread more and cross the boundaries of West Africa to establish itself in realms of different continents. India is also vulnerable due to its susceptible ecosystem and unprepared health system. Our healthcare systems as well as communities are clearly not sensitised to the extent of the danger this possess, it’s time to take action before it is far too late.
Keyword: Ebola Virus Disease, Outbreak, West Africa, Laboratory Diagnosis, Vaccine, Prevention.
The document discusses coronaviruses, including their origins and characteristics. It provides background on coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Key points include:
- Coronaviruses are large, enveloped RNA viruses that infect a wide range of animals and cause respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases.
- They get their name from crown-like spikes on their surface. Their genomes contain genes that encode structural and accessory proteins.
- Bats are considered natural reservoirs for coronaviruses. The SARS outbreak in 2003 was believed to have originated from bats and spread to humans via civets.
- The Wuhan coronavirus originated at an animal market in Wuhan, China in December 2019.
This document discusses emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. It begins with trends in infectious diseases, then defines emerging and re-emerging diseases. Factors that contribute to emergence include changes in the agent, host, and environment. Examples are provided of diseases that have emerged or re-emerged recently, including SARS, avian influenza, hepatitis C, and antibiotic resistance. The response from public health is also mentioned.
This document provides information about Ebola virus disease (EVD), also known as Ebola hemorrhagic fever. It can spread easily between people and animals through direct contact with body fluids. Common signs and symptoms include fever, muscle aches, vomiting and diarrhea in the early stages and later internal and external bleeding. While there is no vaccine or standard treatment, prevention focuses on avoiding contact with infected individuals or animals and thoroughly washing hands. The document outlines Ebola's transmission, signs, prevention methods and lack of a current vaccine.
This document provides guidance on selecting and using personal protective equipment (PPE) in healthcare settings. It defines PPE and outlines OSHA and CDC regulations. The goal is to improve safety through appropriate PPE use. The document describes different types of PPE like gloves, gowns, masks, and respirators. It provides details on factors influencing selection, proper donning and doffing, and when different PPE should be used according to standard and expanded isolation precautions. Step-by-step instructions and diagrams demonstrate safe wearing, removal, and disposal of PPE.
The document provides information about swine flu and answers 16 questions from the CDC about the virus. It discusses that there are different subtypes of swine influenza viruses that infect pigs, including H1N1, H1N2, H3N2, and H3N1. It notes that humans can become infected with swine flu from direct contact with pigs, though human-to-human transmission is rare. Symptoms in humans are similar to seasonal flu. While human infections are uncommon, cases increase risk of a new pandemic strain emerging. There is no vaccine to protect people but antiviral medications can treat infections.
Emerging and reemerging infectious diseasesarijitkundu88
Various emerging and reemerging diseases. Factors contributing to the emergence of infectious diseases. Antibiotic resistance. The global response to control them. Laboratories network in surveillance.
Group 14 will present a podcast on Ebola that covers what it is, how it is transmitted, its symptoms, current outbreak areas, treatment and prevention. Ebola is a deadly virus spread through direct contact with bodily fluids that causes sudden fever, muscle pains and can lead to internal bleeding. The largest outbreak on record started in 2014 in West Africa and spread to several countries. While there is no approved vaccine or treatment, prevention focuses on avoiding infected areas and people along with good hand hygiene.
1. The document is a biology project on the Ebola virus completed by a student. It includes an introduction to Ebola, its classification, symptoms, transmission, diagnosis and prevention.
2. The largest sections cover the epidemiology of Ebola, discussing its natural reservoir in fruit bats and outbreaks in West Africa.
3. Treatment of Ebola focuses on treating symptoms and several vaccine candidates are discussed, though none have been approved.
1. transmission of ebola virus disease an overviewSuresh Rewar
Ebola is a viral illness of which the initial symptoms can include a sudden fever, intense weakness, muscle pain and a sore throat, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Airborne transmission of Ebola virus has been hypothesized but not demonstrated in humans. Ebola is not spread through the air or by water, or in general, by food. However, in Africa, Ebola may be spread as a result of handling bushmeat (wild animals hunted for food) and contact with infected bats. The disease infects
humans through close contact with infected animals, including chimpanzees, fruit bats, and forest antelope. Ebola virus can be transmitted by direct contact with blood, bodily fluids, or skin of patients with or who died of Ebola virus disease. As of late October 2014, the World Health Organization reported 13,567 suspected cases and 4922 deaths, although the agency believes that this substantially understates the magnitude of the outbreak. Experimental vaccines and treatments for Ebola are under development, but they have not yet been fully tested for safety or effectiveness.
This document summarizes information about the Ebola virus, including its characterization, life cycle, transmission, symptoms, outbreaks, treatment and prevention. It describes Ebola virus as a filamentous, enveloped RNA virus that infects monocytes, macrophages and other immune cells. It evades the host immune system and causes hemorrhagic fever through mechanisms such as blocking interferon response. The largest Ebola outbreak occurred in West Africa from 2013-2016. Treatment involves general medical support and isolation, while prevention focuses on avoiding contact with patients, proper PPE and animal surveillance.
The document summarizes the 2009 H1N1 swine flu outbreak. It describes the virus as a hybrid containing genes from human, avian, and swine influenza viruses. Cases were initially reported in Mexico and the US. Symptoms are similar to seasonal flu. Treatment involves antiviral drugs. The virus can spread from pigs to humans and between humans. Precautions are recommended to control spread in healthcare settings.
H1 n1 influenza a disease information for health professionals lindsey_nejm 2009Ruth Vargas Gonzales
1. A novel H1N1 influenza virus emerged in Mexico and the US in April 2009 that was a triple reassortment of human, avian, and swine influenza viruses.
2. Researchers developed PCR tests to identify confirmed cases of the virus and help track the outbreak. Health authorities worldwide are monitoring and trying to control the outbreak.
3. As of early May 2009, the virus was causing mild to moderate illness in most patients. However, some hospitalized patients developed pneumonia or other complications, and two deaths occurred in high-risk patients. The age distribution and symptoms resembled typical seasonal influenza.
5.SANITATION VS VACCINATION- Vaccines Did Not Save Us- Charts and StatisticsAntonio Bernard
1) The document presents data showing that major declines in infectious diseases like measles, pertussis, and tuberculosis occurred before widespread vaccination efforts. This provides evidence that vaccines were not solely responsible for disease elimination.
2) Graphs and studies show artificial immunization is often ineffective or inconsequential for diseases like influenza, tuberculosis, measles and pertussis. In some cases, vaccination appeared to increase risks of disease or other health issues.
3) Data indicates increases in vaccine doses mandated for US children under 5 correlated with rising rates of infant mortality and deaths in children under 5. Studies also link vaccination to sudden infant death syndrome, inflammatory bowel diseases, diabetes and recent rises in autism diagnoses.
Emerging and re-emerging diseses part2 (INCLUDES ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE)Dr. Mamta Gehlawat
2nd half of my ppt on emerging and re-emerging diseases. i uploaded the first half already. pls refer to that too. this ppt has info on AIDS/HIV, ZIKA, EBOLA-MARBURG, MELIODIOSIS, CHOLERA and ANTIMICROBIAL RESISTANCE
This document provides an overview of Ebola virus, including its taxonomy, history, molecular biology, symptoms, diagnosis, treatment, and management. Ebola virus is a negative-sense RNA virus that causes severe hemorrhagic fever in humans and non-human primates. It is transmitted through contact with infected body fluids and has a high fatality rate. The current 2014 outbreak in West Africa involving the Zaire species is the largest on record. There is no approved treatment but supportive care and experimental therapies are being used. Strict isolation protocols are necessary to prevent spread in healthcare settings.
Leptospirosis is a bacterial infection spread through contact with infected animal urine that can cause fever, headache, jaundice and other symptoms. It is more common in warm climates and transmitted through breaks in the skin or mucous membranes. Antibiotics are used to treat it, with more severe cases requiring hospitalization.
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) is a viral pneumonia caused by a coronavirus. It is spread through droplets from coughs or sneezes of infected individuals or surfaces they touch. Prevention methods include handwashing, wearing masks around infected people, and disinfecting surfaces.
Chikungunya is a mosquito-borne viral disease caused by
Peste des-ruminants-is-a-rinderpest.doc pdfGudyne Wafubwa
Peste des petits ruminant virus (PPRV) is a disease mostly affecting goats and sheep. Since its first discovery, it has caused massive economic loss to most small pastoralists in Africa and other developing countries. It is the integral role of all stakeholders to join hands so as to eradicate the disease.
An overview on ebola virus disease (evd) or ebola hemorrhagic fever (ehf)pharmaindexing
Ebola virus disease (EVD), also known as Ebola hemorrhagic fever, is a severe and often fatal illness in humans caused by the Ebola virus. The virus is transmitted through contact with infected animals like fruit bats or non-human primates, and then spreads between humans through contact with bodily fluids. Symptoms include fever, headache, muscle pain and weakness followed by vomiting, diarrhea and rash, with fatality rates reaching 90% in some outbreaks. There is no approved vaccine or treatment, though several are in development.
First Human Becomes Infected By H6N1 Bird Flu In TaiwanHarm Kiezebrink
A new bird flu strain called H6N1 has infected its first human.
Taiwanese researchers are reporting the new bird flu appeared in a 20-year-old woman from central Taiwan. The woman had been working in a delicatessen before she began experiencing flu-like symptoms and shortness of breath. She was then hospitalized in May 2013.
Ebola Virus Disease: An Emerging Global Public Health Concernpaperpublications3
Abstract: Ebola virus disease (EVD) formerly known as, Ebola haemorrhagic fever (EHF) is one of the most severe viral HFs often characterized by the sudden onset of fever, intense weakness, muscle pain, headache, sore throat, vomiting, diarrhoea, rash, impaired kidney and liver function, and in some cases, both internal and external bleeding. The 2014 Ebola outbreak is the largest Ebola outbreak in history and the first Ebola outbreak in West Africa affecting multiple countries in West Africa e.g. Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The current outbreak threatens to spread more and cross the boundaries of West Africa to establish itself in realms of different continents. India is also vulnerable due to its susceptible ecosystem and unprepared health system. Our healthcare systems as well as communities are clearly not sensitised to the extent of the danger this possess, it’s time to take action before it is far too late.
Keyword: Ebola Virus Disease, Outbreak, West Africa, Laboratory Diagnosis, Vaccine, Prevention.
The document discusses coronaviruses, including their origins and characteristics. It provides background on coronaviruses such as SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Key points include:
- Coronaviruses are large, enveloped RNA viruses that infect a wide range of animals and cause respiratory and gastrointestinal diseases.
- They get their name from crown-like spikes on their surface. Their genomes contain genes that encode structural and accessory proteins.
- Bats are considered natural reservoirs for coronaviruses. The SARS outbreak in 2003 was believed to have originated from bats and spread to humans via civets.
- The Wuhan coronavirus originated at an animal market in Wuhan, China in December 2019.
This document discusses emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. It begins with trends in infectious diseases, then defines emerging and re-emerging diseases. Factors that contribute to emergence include changes in the agent, host, and environment. Examples are provided of diseases that have emerged or re-emerged recently, including SARS, avian influenza, hepatitis C, and antibiotic resistance. The response from public health is also mentioned.
This document provides information about Ebola virus disease (EVD), also known as Ebola hemorrhagic fever. It can spread easily between people and animals through direct contact with body fluids. Common signs and symptoms include fever, muscle aches, vomiting and diarrhea in the early stages and later internal and external bleeding. While there is no vaccine or standard treatment, prevention focuses on avoiding contact with infected individuals or animals and thoroughly washing hands. The document outlines Ebola's transmission, signs, prevention methods and lack of a current vaccine.
This document provides guidance on selecting and using personal protective equipment (PPE) in healthcare settings. It defines PPE and outlines OSHA and CDC regulations. The goal is to improve safety through appropriate PPE use. The document describes different types of PPE like gloves, gowns, masks, and respirators. It provides details on factors influencing selection, proper donning and doffing, and when different PPE should be used according to standard and expanded isolation precautions. Step-by-step instructions and diagrams demonstrate safe wearing, removal, and disposal of PPE.
Ebola virus disease is caused by infection with the Ebola virus. It was first discovered in 1976 near the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The virus causes severe hemorrhagic fever with symptoms including muscle pain, headache, vomiting and diarrhea. The disease has a high fatality rate, especially with the Zaire species of the virus. There is currently no approved vaccine or treatment, though several are in development. Prevention relies on avoiding contact with infected individuals or animals and practicing good hygiene.
Dear viewers , this presentation includes all information about Ebola virus , like introduction,symptoms,preventions,origin,etc.I hope you all improve your knowledge by going through this presentation.
Ebola virus disease is a severe, often fatal illness caused by the Ebola virus. The virus was first discovered in 1976 near the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The 2014 outbreak in West Africa was the largest in history, infecting thousands and killing over 11,000. The virus is transmitted through direct contact with body fluids of infected humans or animals. Common symptoms include fever, headache, muscle pain and weakness. While there is no approved vaccine, treatment involves supportive care to improve symptoms.
The document discusses Ebola virus disease (EVD), also known as Ebola hemorrhagic fever. It first appeared in Africa in 1976 and causes severe bleeding and organ failure in humans and nonhuman primates. The virus spreads through direct contact with body fluids of infected individuals or contaminated environments. While there is no approved vaccine or treatment, prevention focuses on isolation of patients, medical staff training in infection control, safe burials, and avoiding contact with high-risk animals like bats that may carry the virus. The document provides details on the virus's pathogenesis, symptoms, subtypes, transmission methods, and the challenges it poses given its rapid multiplication and ability to evade immune responses.
Ebola hemorrhagic fever is a often-fatal viral disease that affects humans and nonhuman primates. It was first discovered in 1976 near the Ebola River in the Democratic Republic of Congo. There are 5 distinct sub-species of the Ebola virus. The natural reservoir of the virus is unknown, but it is believed to be animal-borne and native to Africa. Early symptoms include fever, headache, and muscle pain. Late stage symptoms are more severe and include internal and external bleeding. The virus disables a human protein called tetherin that normally prevents virus spread, allowing the virus to efficiently spread from cell to cell. There is no approved vaccine yet for Ebola virus, but research is
Ebola virus disease is a severe and often fatal illness in humans that causes hemorrhagic fever. It first appeared in 1976 and is transmitted through contact with infected wildlife such as fruit bats or primates, or through human-to-human transmission via bodily fluids. Symptoms include fever, muscle pain, and bleeding. While there is no approved vaccine or treatment, several are in development. Fruit bats are considered the natural host for the virus in Africa.
Tiga kalimat ringkasan dokumen tersebut adalah:
Dokumen tersebut membahas tentang penyakit Ebola, termasuk gejala, penyebab, penularan, diagnosis, pengobatan, pencegahan, dan pengendaliannya. Wabah Ebola terbesar terjadi di Afrika Barat pada 2014 yang disebabkan oleh virus Zaire Ebolavirus dan menyebar ke beberapa negara. Pencegahan dan pengendalian wabah Ebola bergantung pada keterlibatan masyarakat
Ebola adalah virus yang menyebabkan demam berdarah yang berbahaya dengan gejala seperti demam, muntah darah, dan kematian hingga 100% di beberapa kasus. Virus ini menular melalui kontak langsung dengan cairan tubuh yang terinfeksi. Pencegahannya adalah menghindari kontak dengan pasien Ebola dan menangani cairan tubuhnya dengan hati-hati.
The document presents information on Ebola virus from its initial outbreak in 1976 in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Southern Sudan. It discusses how Ebola is transmitted through contact with bodily fluids and can be transmitted sexually for up to 7 weeks after recovery. Signs and symptoms include fever, muscle pain, and internal and external bleeding. While vaccines are being tested, currently there is no approved vaccine or treatment. Prevention relies on controlling the virus in animals, proper hygiene and protective equipment when handling infected individuals or meat, and safe burials.
This document discusses chronic kidney disease (CKD). It defines CKD as a progressive loss of renal function over months or years that is identified by increased creatinine levels and protein or blood in the urine. The two main causes of CKD are diabetes and high blood pressure, which together account for two-thirds of cases. Symptoms of CKD may not appear until later stages and include fatigue, poor appetite, and swollen limbs. Anyone can develop CKD, but those with diabetes, high blood pressure, family history, older age, or certain ethnicities are at higher risk. CKD is diagnosed through tests of kidney function and imaging and staged based on glomerular filtration rate.
This document provides an overview of Ebola virus disease (EVD), including its origins, transmission, symptoms, diagnosis, treatment and prevention. It notes that Ebola was first identified in 1976 in Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan. Ebola is transmitted through contact with body fluids of infected humans or animals. Symptoms include fever, muscle pain and bleeding. While there is no approved vaccine or treatment, prevention focuses on avoiding contact with infected individuals and animals.
There are five known Ebola viruses, with the Zaire Ebola virus being the most dangerous. Four of the five known Ebola viruses can cause Ebola virus disease, a severe and often fatal hemorrhagic fever in humans and other primates. Ebola virus disease is a serious condition that affects both humans and primates caused by four out of the five known Ebola virus strains.
The Ebola virus causes an acute, serious illness which is often fatal if untreated. Ebola virus disease (EVD) first appeared in 1976 in 2 simultaneous outbreaks, one in Nzara, Sudan, and the other in Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo. The latter occurred in a village near the Ebola River, from which the disease takes its name.
The current outbreak in west Africa, (first cases notified in March 2014), is the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the Ebola virus was first discovered in 1976. There have been more cases and deaths in this outbreak than all others combined. It has also spread between countries starting in Guinea then spreading across land borders to Sierra Leone and Liberia, by air (1 traveller only) to Nigeria, and by land (1 traveller) to Senegal.
The most severely affected countries, Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia have very weak health systems, lacking human and infrastructural resources, having only recently emerged from long periods of conflict and instability. On August 8, the WHO Director-General declared this outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.
A separate, unrelated Ebola outbreak began in Boende, Equateur, an isolated part of the Democratic Republic of Congo.
The virus family Filoviridae includes 3 genera: Cuevavirus, Marburgvirus, and Ebolavirus. There are 5 species that have been identified: Zaire, Bundibugyo, Sudan, Reston and Taï Forest. The first 3, Bundibugyo ebolavirus, Zaire ebolavirus, and Sudan ebolavirus have been associated with large outbreaks in Africa. The virus causing the 2014 west African outbreak belongs to the Zaire species.
Ebola virus disease is a severe and often fatal illness in humans caused by the Ebola virus. The virus is transmitted through direct contact with body fluids of infected humans or animals. While there is currently no proven treatment, several vaccines and treatments are in development. The 2014 outbreak in West Africa was the largest in history, infecting over 10,000 people and killing nearly 5,000. Containing the outbreak has proven extremely challenging and costly due to limitations in healthcare infrastructure and resources in the affected countries.
Ebola virus disease (EVD; also Ebola hemorrhagic fever, or EHF), or simply Ebola, is a disease of humans and other primates caused by ebolaviruses. Ebola virus disease is a serious illness that originated in Africa, where there is currently an outbreak
Ebola virus disease is a severe and often fatal illness in humans that was first identified in 1976. The virus spreads through direct contact with body fluids from infected humans or animals. Early symptoms include fever, fatigue, and muscle pain that can progress to vomiting, diarrhea and internal bleeding. While there is no licensed treatment, supportive care such as rehydration can improve survival. The 2014-2015 outbreak in West Africa was the largest in history, resulting in over 23,000 cases and 9,600 deaths across multiple countries. Controlling the outbreak requires community engagement along with safe practices in healthcare settings and burials.
1. The document summarizes an analysis of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in three regions of Guinea - Gueckedou, Macenta, and Conakry. It provides background on Ebola virus characteristics and transmission.
2. Epidemic modeling was conducted using the regions' case data from April to November 2014. The modeling found Gueckedou's outbreak appeared to be stabilizing while Macenta and Conakry's cases continued rising sharply.
3. Further modeling for Gueckedou predicted the outbreak could stabilize there by the end of the year if transmission from outside was prevented and care ratios did not change.
The SIR Model and the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak in Guinea, Liberia an...CSCJournals
This document presents a mathematical model using the SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model to understand the spread of the 2014 Ebola virus disease outbreak in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The model divides the population into compartments based on disease status. Differential equations are formulated and numerically solved using data from the outbreak. The results show that initially the number of infected individuals increases, reaches a peak, and then decreases as individuals recover or die, indicating the outbreak could be controlled. Public health interventions that reduce transmission rates can help an outbreak die out by lowering the reproduction number below 1.
Ebola hemorrhagic fever is a disease caused by one of five different Ebola viruses. Four of the strains can cause severe illness in humans and animals. Humans can be infected by other humans if they come in contact with body fluids from an infected person or contaminated objects from infected persons. Humans can also be exposed to the virus, for example, by butchering infected animals. Deadly human Ebola outbreaks have been confirmed in the following countries: Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Gabon, South Sudan, Ivory Coast, Uganda, and Republic of the Congo (ROC), Guinea and Liberia. In this sense, it is of vital importance to analysis the history data and predicts its propagation. More specifically, a model based k-means algorithm to determine the optimal locations of virus delivery is constructed and tested Using Mab-lab programming. By experiment, we find that our model can work well and lead to a relatively accurate prediction, which can help the government forecast the epidemic spread more efficiently
Analyzing the economic consequences of an epidemic outbreak experience from t...Alexander Decker
The document analyzes the economic impact of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. It finds that the outbreak adversely affected economic growth, commodity prices, and government budget deficits in the hardest hit countries of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Using a probit model and data from the four affected West African countries between March and September 2014, the study finds that factors like the severity of the outbreak, isolation of countries, and cumulative infection cases significantly increased the probability of adverse economic outcomes. It recommends strengthening health systems and regional coordination to combat future epidemics.
Analyzing the economic consequences of an epidemic outbreak experience from t...Alexander Decker
The document analyzes the economic impact of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. It finds that the outbreak adversely affected economic growth, commodity prices, and government budget deficits in the hardest hit countries of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Using a probit model and data from the four affected West African countries between March and September 2014, the study finds that factors like the severity of the outbreak, isolation of countries, and cumulative infection cases significantly increased the probability of adverse economic outcomes. It recommends strengthening health systems and regional coordination to combat future epidemics.
The document summarizes an epidemiological study of the 2014-2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Western Area of Sierra Leone. It found that the Western Area, comprising only 2 of Sierra Leone's 14 districts, accounted for over half of the country's reported EVD cases and deaths. Key factors driving transmission included delayed detection and response, intense population movement, overcrowding, and unresponsive communities. Transmission was primarily through contact, with limited transmission through sex and breast milk. The unprecedented scale of the outbreak in the urban Western Area was attributed to these factors and highlighted the need for strengthened preparedness and swift response to limit morbidity and mortality in future similar outbreak outbreaks.
The document discusses a research proposal on assessing public awareness of the impacts of the Ebola outbreak. It provides background on Ebola, including its history and transmission. The largest Ebola outbreak started in West Africa in 2014. The purpose of the study is to evaluate Malaysian public knowledge of Ebola's effects. It will investigate the causes and impacts of Ebola and solutions to increase public awareness of the outbreak. The significance is to ensure Malaysians understand Ebola risks and precautions.
Predicting west nile virus in mosquitos across the city of chicagoTharindu Ranasinghe
The document discusses predicting outbreaks of West Nile virus in mosquitos in Chicago using machine learning models. Data on mosquito trap locations, weather patterns, and virus test results from 2007-2014 were analyzed. Extreme Gradient Boosting and Regularized Greedy Forest classifiers were used to predict virus presence based on features like mosquito species, temperature, and location. The models achieved an AUC of 0.79044 and can help target prevention efforts. Future work could incorporate mosquito spraying data to potentially improve accuracy.
Dengue fever is a viral illness spread by mosquitoes. It is estimated that 50 million people are infected with dengue each year worldwide. While most cases result in mild fever and joint pain, some cases can develop into severe dengue hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome, which are life-threatening and the leading cause of death among children in some Asian and Latin American countries. Climate change is increasing global temperatures and altering rainfall patterns, conditions which allow mosquitoes to spread to new areas and increase transmission of dengue virus to humans. Effective control of dengue requires integrated vector control strategies to reduce mosquito populations and public education regarding prevention of mosquito bites.
Non compartmental s-i-s modeling of hiv prevalence in 7 countries of the worldAlexander Decker
This document presents two non-compartmental S-I-S models developed to model HIV prevalence over time in different countries. The models were validated using HIV prevalence data from 7 countries obtained online. The models fitted the data very well, with correlation coefficients close to 1. The models can be used to determine key values for each country, such as ultimate prevalence, time of peak prevalence, and time of exhaustion. Non-compartmental S-I-S models provide a simple way to model and make predictions about HIV prevalence over time for different countries.
This is a final year project report on Ebola Virus Disease.....
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for more information and materials for the project contact me @ www.facebook.com/abhishekurmate
The document provides background information on the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak in history. It discusses how Ebola spread from Guinea to the neighboring countries of Liberia and Sierra Leone due to porous borders and mobility. Issues that promoted the spread included cultural practices like eating bushmeat, lack of understanding of Western medicine, and damage to health infrastructure from civil wars in the affected countries. Problems arose regarding personal protective equipment recommendations, availability of supplies, and proper use of PPE. However, specialized treatment units like the one at Emory Hospital helped successfully treat patients through years of preparation and stringent safety protocols.
This document discusses filoviruses, which cause viral hemorrhagic fevers such as Ebola virus disease and Marburg virus disease. It provides background on the classification and transmission of filoviruses, describing how they are spread through contact with bodily fluids. Symptoms are then explained, which include fever, vomiting, and bleeding. As there is no vaccine or cure, treatment focuses on supportive care. The document concludes by reviewing the history of Ebola virus outbreaks since 1976 and discusses current concerns around controlling the ongoing 2014 outbreak in West Africa.
U.S. Preps For Ebola Outbreak Cases May Exceed 100,000 By December “The Numbe...Hope Small
The article does not mention that a completely unrelated strain of ebola has broken out in the Congo. What are the chances of that?
Though news on the Ebola virus has been muted since two American health care workers were admitted to U.S.-based facilities last month, the deadly contagion continues to spread. According to the World Health Organization more than 40% of all Ebola cases thus far have occurred in just the last three months, suggesting that the virus is continuing to build steam.
Physicist Alessandro Vespignani of Northeastern University in Boston is one of several researchers trying to figure out how far Ebola may spread and how many people around the world could be affected. Based on his findings, there will be 10,000 cases by September of this year and it only gets worse from there.
The document describes a varicella zoster virus (VZV) outbreak that occurred in 2008 in a refugee camp in Northern Thailand. It affected a population of 7815 Lao Hmong refugees. The outbreak began with 2 initial cases on January 28th and ended on May 5th, with a total of 309 cases identified. Different transmission coefficients (β) were estimated and used to model the outbreak data using a basic SIR model. The model that best fit the epidemic curve used a β of 0.000133, producing a basic reproduction number (R0) of 6.08, which is close to values reported in previous studies. However, the SIR model violated several assumptions given heterogeneity in the population.
This document summarizes research on Powassan virus (POW), a rare but serious tick-borne virus. It discusses the virus's distribution and prevalence based on studies of deer populations. POW causes encephalitis and meningitis and has a 10% fatality rate. While cases are rare, rates have increased in areas where the transmitting ticks (Ixodes species) are common. Climate change may be expanding the ticks' habitats. The document reviews the virus's pathogenesis, symptoms, and current prevention strategies like tick repellents and body checks. More research is needed due to the virus's rarity.
The document analyzes the effect of American military intervention in the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak. It compares data on death counts and case numbers in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone before and after US intervention. The graphs show deaths and cases leveling off in Liberia and Sierra Leone following US intervention in October 2014, while numbers remained high in Guinea where there was no intervention. This suggests that American aid helped slow the spread of the virus in the countries it was focused on.
The document is a project report on the Ebola virus submitted for a school examination. It includes an introduction that describes the origins and risks of Ebola, noting that it is caused by one of five virus strains found in several African countries with no known cure or vaccine. It then provides sections on the current West Africa outbreak which began in 2013, how Ebola is transmitted through contact with bodily fluids, the WHO response which includes surveillance and support for affected countries, current statistics on the outbreak from WHO, symptoms and current treatment approaches, and prevention methods such as proper hygiene practices.
Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in FranceGuy Boulianne
This document summarizes a study estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France. As of April 14th, over 70,000 people had been hospitalized and over 10,000 had died from COVID-19 in France. The study uses modeling to estimate key parameters like the infection fatality ratio (0.53%), risk of hospitalization by age and sex, and impact of the lockdown in reducing transmission. It projects that by May 11th, around 3.7 million people or 5.7% of the French population will have been infected. Herd immunity alone will not prevent a second wave if control measures are lifted.
Sensitivity Analysis of the Dynamical Spread of Ebola Virus DiseaseAI Publications
The deterministic epidemiological model of (S, E, Iu, Id, R) were studied to gain insight into the dynamical spread of Ebola virus disease. Local and global stability of the model are explored for disease-free and endemic equilibria. Sensitivity analysis is performed on basic reproduction number to check the importance of each parameter on the transmission of Ebola disease. Positivity solution is analyzed for mathematical and epidemiological posedness of the model. Numerical simulation was analyzed by MAPLE 18 software using embedded Runge-Kutta method of order (4) which shows the parameter that has high impact in the spread of the disease spread of Ebola virus disease.
This document is an unofficial academic transcript for Gerard Michael Trimberger from the University of Washington. It summarizes his educational history, including SAT scores, courses taken quarter by quarter from 2007 to 2016, grades received, grade point averages, academic honors earned, and that he received a Bachelor of Science degree in Applied and Computational Math Sciences in Autumn 2016.
This document describes a group project analyzing customer purchasing patterns in different departments of a grocery store using multidimensional scaling. The group collected hourly sales data for 10 departments from a local grocery store. They normalized the data and calculated distances between departments using Minkowski distance formulas. They then used multidimensional scaling to plot the departments and show their similarities based on busy times. The results could provide insight for grocery store layout and planning.
This project aims to find optimal vacation routes that visit predetermined cities using graph theory and linear programming. Two problems are solved: the classic traveling salesperson problem to minimize distance and a "best trip" problem to maximize happiness factors. Cities are rated based on factors like cost of living, GDP, and attractions. The results discuss solutions in terms of cost and travel distance between 13 global cities.
This document provides a literature review and overview of simple energy balance climate models. It summarizes Budyko's 1969 model, which related outgoing radiation to surface temperature. It also discusses the ice-albedo feedback mechanism considered important by climate scientists. The document then reviews the key assumptions and equations of simple energy balance models, including representing solar radiation as a latitude-dependent function, modeling albedo with piecewise constants, and approximating transport with a relaxation term. It derives the governing heat balance equation and shows how to solve for equilibrium temperatures as a function of latitude.
This document describes mathematical models of the three main systems that produce energy in the human body: phosphocreatine (PC), anaerobic respiration, and aerobic respiration. Differential equations were formulated to model how these systems interact over time based on assumptions about the underlying chemical reactions and feedback loops. The models were fitted to data on world record running times using Bayesian inference to manipulate variables and match the energy output. This allowed studying how the different energy systems contribute at varying intensities and durations of exercise.
This proposal outlines a novel genetic circuit that could be inserted into E. coli to detect safe and harmful concentrations of lead in liquid samples. The circuit would utilize existing lead-binding proteins and promoters, as well as common metabolic signals, fluorescent reporters, and terminator sequences. It is composed of three modules: a concentration detector, memory unit, and signal amplifying fluorescent reporter. While the actual circuit cannot be constructed yet, computer simulations show it could function as intended given the appropriate biological parts. The proposal provides detailed specifications and simulations of each module and the complete circuit.
The document describes the design and implementation of a PID temperature controller using LabVIEW. A circuit was built using common electrical components to act as the system being controlled. Data was collected on the system's response to control voltages. The data was used to determine the system's transfer function. A LabVIEW VI was created to implement PID control, varying the P, I, and D gains to analyze their effects on temperature response. Gains of kp=550, ki=2, kd=8 produced the best response with minimal overshoot and settling time. Graphs show the temperature profiles for various gain configurations.
1) The document describes an experiment to measure the thermal profile of an egg white cylinder cooking in boiling water using a thermocouple. Trials showed a linear relationship between temperature difference and time.
2) A COMSOL simulation modeled the system and also showed a linear relationship, though the slope differed from experimental results, likely due to modeling assumptions.
3) A theoretical model based on an infinite cylinder approximation had results close to experiments, with less than 1% error in slope, suggesting it adequately modeled the system.
These lecture slides, by Dr Sidra Arshad, offer a simplified look into the mechanisms involved in the regulation of respiration:
Learning objectives:
1. Describe the organisation of respiratory center
2. Describe the nervous control of inspiration and respiratory rhythm
3. Describe the functions of the dorsal and respiratory groups of neurons
4. Describe the influences of the Pneumotaxic and Apneustic centers
5. Explain the role of Hering-Breur inflation reflex in regulation of inspiration
6. Explain the role of central chemoreceptors in regulation of respiration
7. Explain the role of peripheral chemoreceptors in regulation of respiration
8. Explain the regulation of respiration during exercise
9. Integrate the respiratory regulatory mechanisms
10. Describe the Cheyne-Stokes breathing
Study Resources:
1. Chapter 42, Guyton and Hall Textbook of Medical Physiology, 14th edition
2. Chapter 36, Ganong’s Review of Medical Physiology, 26th edition
3. Chapter 13, Human Physiology by Lauralee Sherwood, 9th edition
TEST BANK For Community and Public Health Nursing: Evidence for Practice, 3rd...Donc Test
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Osteoporosis - Definition , Evaluation and Management .pdfJim Jacob Roy
Osteoporosis is an increasing cause of morbidity among the elderly.
In this document , a brief outline of osteoporosis is given , including the risk factors of osteoporosis fractures , the indications for testing bone mineral density and the management of osteoporosis
share - Lions, tigers, AI and health misinformation, oh my!.pptxTina Purnat
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These lecture slides, by Dr Sidra Arshad, offer a quick overview of the physiological basis of a normal electrocardiogram.
Learning objectives:
1. Define an electrocardiogram (ECG) and electrocardiography
2. Describe how dipoles generated by the heart produce the waveforms of the ECG
3. Describe the components of a normal electrocardiogram of a typical bipolar lead (limb II)
4. Differentiate between intervals and segments
5. Enlist some common indications for obtaining an ECG
6. Describe the flow of current around the heart during the cardiac cycle
7. Discuss the placement and polarity of the leads of electrocardiograph
8. Describe the normal electrocardiograms recorded from the limb leads and explain the physiological basis of the different records that are obtained
9. Define mean electrical vector (axis) of the heart and give the normal range
10. Define the mean QRS vector
11. Describe the axes of leads (hexagonal reference system)
12. Comprehend the vectorial analysis of the normal ECG
13. Determine the mean electrical axis of the ventricular QRS and appreciate the mean axis deviation
14. Explain the concepts of current of injury, J point, and their significance
Study Resources:
1. Chapter 11, Guyton and Hall Textbook of Medical Physiology, 14th edition
2. Chapter 9, Human Physiology - From Cells to Systems, Lauralee Sherwood, 9th edition
3. Chapter 29, Ganong’s Review of Medical Physiology, 26th edition
4. Electrocardiogram, StatPearls - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK549803/
5. ECG in Medical Practice by ABM Abdullah, 4th edition
6. Chapter 3, Cardiology Explained, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK2214/
7. ECG Basics, http://www.nataliescasebook.com/tag/e-c-g-basics
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Ebola final project paper
1. Outbreak of Ebola Presentation
By
RYAN AHEARN, CHARLTON CALLENDER,
GERARD TRIMBERGER, JESSE WALES
422/522 FINAL PROJECT
COMPLETED AT
THE UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON SEATTLE
DECEMBER 2015
2. Contents
1 Introduction 2
2 Model 6
3 Reproduction of Results 12
3.1 Paper Model vs Our Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
4 Novel Results 17
5 Conclusions 20
6 Appendix 23
1
3. Chapter 1
Introduction
As of December 2nd
, 2015 there have been a total of 28,601 cases as reported by the CDC.
11,300 of those cases ended in death. The outbreak in West Africa is believed to have been
caused by a child in Guinea who was infected by a fruit bat in December 2013. However, the
cases were not reported as an Ebola outbreak until March 2014. Unlike previous outbreaks
which began in rural areas of Africa, the most recent outbreak that Althaus’ paper discusses
began in the densely populated border region between three countries: Guinea, Sierra Leone
and Liberia.
These countries have weak health systems, they tend to lack human and infrastructure
resources, and have recently emerged from long periods of war and instability. Infections are
caused by contact through infected blood or other bodily fluids, as well as re-use of needles,
or physical contact with infected dead. This includes contact with linens, and surfaces that
the infected may have touched with their fluids. Traditional West African burial practices
2
4. are that families wash the deceased and that they are to be buried in the villages in which
they were born. The infection spread quickly as infected bodies were moved to towns via
taxis that operated in these densely urban areas. This greatly contributed to the massive
spread due to the high mobility of the persons there. As stated by Moore, ”Many burial
practices have to be curtailed if an outbreak is going to be contained.” On August 8, 2014,
the World Health Organization Director-General declared the West Africa outbreak a Public
Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations.
The first Ebola outbreak began in Yambuku, Zaire in September 1976. Until 2014, it
was the largest outbreak on record with a total of 318 cases and 280 deaths. Blood samples
from an infected Belgian nun working in Zaire made it to a low-security lab in Belgium
contained within a thermos full of mostly melted ice. One of the sample vials had broken,
so the other was fished out of the blood and broken glass to be examined. Many tests
were completed using the samples, but the tests for the usual suspects (yellow fever, Lassa
fever, and Typhoid) all came back negative. It wasn’t until they infected lab animals did
they learn they were dealing with something that was ”quite deadly.” Shortly thereafter, the
World Health Organization ordered all of the samples at the Belgian lab to be moved to a
high-security lab in England. However, one of the supervisors for the project took a vial to
keep for examination at the Belgian facility, but dropped it onto a colleague’s foot where the
vial shattered. Luckily, none of the investigators were infected due to their ignorance of the
disease.
The virus was finally identified using an electron microscope (See Figure (1.1)). It was
3
5. Figure 1.1: EBOV under a microscope
found to be similar to the Marburg virus which also causes a hemorrhagic fever. When sci-
entists first flew to Zaire, they still were uncertain how the virus is passed between humans.
All precautions were taken, but the suits were quickly discarded due to the heat. There, it
was discovered that the virus was spread by the hospitals themselves through contaminated
needles.
Ebola is part of the family of Filoviridae viruses. Ebola contains several strains that
affect humans: Ebola-Zaire, Ebola-Sudan, Ebola-Ivory Coast (Tai Forest), and Bundibugy.
The 2014-2015 outbreak was caused by the Ebola Zaire virus which is also the deadliest
of the strains with an 80-90% death rate. Symptoms include weakness, muscle, joint, and
abdominal pains; headache, sore throat, nausea, then they begin to bleed from the eyes and
have red spots under the skin due to damaged blood vessels, the cough and vomit bloody-
foam as their lungs and guts weaken, then the virus begins to cause severe organ damage
targeting the spleen, kidneys, and liver which causes bloody diarrhea (See Figure (1.2)).
4
6. Figure 1.2: Symptoms caused by Ebola Virus
The incubation period, or the time interval from infection to onset of symptoms, is from
2 to 21 days. People are not contagious until they develop symptoms and infections can only
be confirmed through laboratory testing. There is no cure or treatment for Ebola. Those
infected can only be made comfortable, contained, and given intravenous fluids.
5
7. Chapter 2
Model
The model used in Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During
the 2014 Outbreak in West Africa [1] is an SEIR model. Before introducing the disease,
the entire population, N, is in the susceptible, S, category and are equally likely to catch
the virus. An individual who contracts Ebola then enters the incubation period, E, where
symptoms are not apparent and they are not yet infectious. Then the individual enters an
infectious stage, I, once they begin to show symptoms and can now infect others. Finally,
the individual either enters the recovered stage, R, or dies. Individuals belonging to stage
R are no longer susceptible to the virus as they have gained a temporary immunity to the
virus. C is the number of cases at a certain time. D is the number of fatalities at a certain
time.
The model ignores the initial vector of transmission from bats to humans. It only consid-
ers human to human transmission. However, it does not take into account infections caused
6
8. by the infectious dead. The model also does not take into consideration those that have
recovered and have spent enough time in R to pass back into S. It also assumes an N of
106
individuals, which is negligible since the stages are represented as ratios of the total
population.
One last assumption that needs to be mentioned when creating the model for such dy-
namic behavior is that of the difference between the model start point and that of the data.
It is often, if not always the case, that the first reported cases of an outbreak are long after
the first initial case. Most of the time, it is impossible to trace the outbreak back to its
original source. For this reason assumptions are made in Althaus’ model, as well as ours.
We assume that the first case (i.e. I0 = 1 and C0 = 1) in Guinea occurred on December 01,
2013 and the first cases in Sierra Leone and Liberia were on April 15, 2014. These values
were estimated from the Althaus figures. A ”tshift” value was calculated by subtracting
this ”assumed start date” from that of the date from the first reported cases. This value
was then used to appropriately scale the time axis to position the data at the correct time
point along the time axis. For example, the first reported data point in the Guinea region
was on 3/25/14 with 86 cases and 59 deaths. However, this data point does not represent
the first case that is assumed in our model. Therefore, a ’tshift’ value must be calculated
between the date of this point and the assumed start date (i.e. 12/01/13). This shift allows
us to plot the data point corresponding to 86 cases and 59 deaths further down the time
axis. A similar shift is applied to all data sets for all regions and allows for a more accurate
correlation between model predictions and real life data.
7
10. Parameters Definition
S Susceptible, i.e. they can be infected
E Exposed, i.e. they are infected, but not yet contagious
I Infectious and transmitting
R Recovered
C Number of cases
D Number of fatalities
N Total population; S + E + I + R
β(t) = βe−k(t−τ)
transmission rate over time
β transmission rate over time in absence of intervention
f fatality rate
k =
ln(2)
τ1/2
rate at which the transmission rate decays
σ per-capita infectious rate and
1
σ
= average incubation period
γ per-capita death rate and
1
γ
= average infectious period
τ1/2 time until transmission rate is 50% of initial value
τ
time when control measures are introduced (assumed to be 0
for this model)
R0 =
β
γ
basic production number
Re =
β(t)S
γN
≈
β(t)
γ
effective production number; number of people infected per
infectious case; if Re < 0, the outbreak is ”contained”
9
11. This model used data as reported by the CDC from March 2014 until August 2014. The
model fit very well with the progression of reported number of cases and fatalities. Our
modification to the model was to introduce the data that has been updated by the CDC to
be as recent as possible. The figures produced using Althaus’ models from the paper are
Figure (2.1) and Figure (2.2).
Figure 2.1: Dynamics of the 2014 EBOV outbreaks in Guinea (left), Sierra Leone (center)
and Liberia (right). The data of the cumulative numbers of infected cases are shown as red
circles and the cumulative numbers of infected deaths as black squares. The lines represent
the best-fit model to the data (See legend). Note: the scale of the x-axis differs between
each of the countries.
10
12. Figure 2.2: Effective reproduction number (Re) of EBOV in Guinea (left), Sierra Leone
(center) and Liberia (right). This model assumes that β decays exponentially due to the
introduction of control measures. In Guinea and Sierra Leone, the effective reproduction
number has dropped to around unity by the end of May/July 2014, respectively (dashed
lines). In Liberia, Re remains unchanged by end of August 2014. Note: the scale of the
x-axis differs between countries and
1
γ
= 5.61 days.
11
13. Chapter 3
Reproduction of Results
The reproduction of Althaus’ figures models are Figure (3.1) and Figure (3.2), respectively.
Do to the difference between programming languages, there are slight differences in the axes.
Althaus’ figures were produced using the statistical programming language R. Ours was, of
course, made using MATLAB. All assumptions discussed for the Althaus model stands true
for our recreations and additions to the model.
The fminsearch MATLAB command was utilized in our code to solve for optimized beta,
f, and k parameters for the model’s system of differential equations. The ebola min function
was created to solve for the sum-square error (SSE) between the WHO data points and the
model predictions at those corresponding time points (i.e. those of corresponding to each
WHO point). fminsearch accepts the function ebola min which solves for error and the initial
guesses for the beta, k, and f values. The command then solves for the optimal parameter
values such that ebola min returns the lowest value for SSE.
12
14. Figure 3.1: Dynamics of the 2014 EBOV outbreaks in Guinea (left), Sierra Leone (center)
and Liberia (right). The data of the cumulative numbers of infected cases are shown as red
circles and the cumulative numbers of infected deaths as black circles. The lines represent
the best-fit model to the data (See legend). Note: the x-axis represents a different starting
date between countries.
3.1 Paper Model vs Our Model
SEIR model plotted by Althaus was consistent with data released by the CDC and WHO
of total cases reported, confirmed, and probable as well as total reported, confirmed, and
probable deaths for the time period March 2014-August 2014. Updated information about
the totals from each country was introduced to the model. Though the model itself was still
able to accurately represent the number of cases and deaths, changes were needed in the
parameters for each country. By comparing the two models we can make some inferences
about how the first model holds up when the new data is introduced. These comparative
models are Figure (3.3) and Figure (3.4) which explore the infections’ dynamics and Re,
13
15. Figure 3.2: Effective reproduction number (Re) of EBOV in Guinea (left), Sierra Leone
(center), and Liberia (right). This model assumes that β decays exponentially due to the
introduction of control measures. In Liberia, Re remains unchanged by end of August 2014.
Note: the x-axis represents a different starting date between countries and
1
γ
= 5.61 days.
respectively.
Looking at Figure (3.3) (left and center), we can see that the predictions made by Al-
thaus were too low for both Guinea and Sierra Leone. Althaus’ paper made the assumption
that intervention measures taken at the time would cause the infection to be contained be-
fore 2015. What they could not have predicted was the unaccountable spread of the disease
through contaminated dead and surfaces as well as the inhumane treatment of the quaran-
tining process. There were stories of quarantined areas that were protected by armed guards
without influx of fresh food or water for the duration of the quarantine. Figure (3.4) (left
and center) tells us that unity was not reached until about January 2015 which was several
months after the Althaus prediction. The dashed line is an indication of when those infected
will infect one other person and the disease is beginning to decline.
14
16. For Liberia, the predictions differs from the two papers unlike Guinea and Sierra Leone.
As mentioned in the paper, the k value for Liberia is set at 0*, in which the ”*” indicates the
unreasonableness of this assumption. Due to this, Althaus’ model predicted an uncontrolled
spread of EBOV in Liberia. When compared with current data, it is strikingly obvious how
unrealistic this assumption was for the long run as the increase was too large to reasonably
plot (See Figure (3.3), right). In Figure (3.4) (right), the Althaus model never reached a
level of unity implying that those that were sick kept infecting those around them. Numer-
ical comparisons of β, f, and k for all three countries are made in the following Numerical
Comparisons Table.
Numerical Comparisons of Parameters β, f, and k in Althaus Paper and Updated Model
Althaus, 2014 Guinea Sierra Leone Liberia
β 0.27 0.45 0.28
f 0.74 0.48 0.71
k 0.0023 0.0097 0*
Updated, 2015 Guinea Sierra Leone Liberia
β 0.24 0.31 0.34
f 0.67 0.30 0.45
k 0.000816 0.0024 0.0032
15
17. Figure 3.3: Our model vs. Althaus model dynamics of the 2014-2015 EBOV outbreaks in
Guinea (left), Sierra Leone (center), and Liberia (left). The data of the cumulative numbers
of infected cases are shown as red circles and the cumulative numbers of infected deaths as
black circles. The solid lines represent the best-fit model to the data for the updated model
and the dashed lines represent the predicted fit as determined by the Althaus paper(See
legend). Note: the x-axis represents a different starting date between countries.
Figure 3.4: Our models’ Re of EBOV outbreak in Guinea (left), Sierra Leone (center), and
Liberia (right). The models assume that β decays exponentially due to the introduction of
control measures. Note: the x-axis represents a different starting date between countries
and
1
γ
= 5.61 days. Red represents the Althaus model and black is our Re. The dashed line
represents the line of unity at y = 1.
16
18. Chapter 4
Novel Results
Figure (4.1) visually sums up the outbreaks over their entire course as there have not been
any new, confirmed cases since mid-November of 2015. For the total number of cases and
deaths including all three countries, β = 0.3271, k = 0.0025, and f = 0.4065. The ”Total
plot” (Figure (4.1) bottom right) assumes a pooled population but still is able to map the
course of the outbreak fairly well for not considering any spacial separation and equal mixing
between the populations of the countries.
For each country, the fatality rate was reduced after introducing more information. Con-
sidering the Althaus model mostly included information from the beginning of the outbreak,
it is understandable that intervention measures may not have had time to be visually effec-
tive within the model. Though, over time, the intervention measures obviously helped get
the outbreaks under control. One example of this is the fatality rate itself; EBOV has been
recorded as having a fatality rate of around 80-90%. However, by the end of the outbreaks, f
17
19. was less than 45% for the total number of cases. This is even lower than the average fatality
rate of any other strain of Ebola!
18
20. Figure 4.1: Our model dynamics of the 2014-2015 EBOV outbreaks in Guinea (top left),
Sierra Leone (top right), Liberia (bottom left) and totals between all three countries (bottom
right). The data of the cumulative numbers of infected cases are shown as red circles and
the cumulative numbers of infected deaths as black circles. The lines represent the best-fit
for the model (See legend). Note: the x-axis is based on the number of days after the initial
case and represents a different starting date between countries.
19
21. Chapter 5
Conclusions
A study of the parameters β, k, and f were done to see what their behavior would be if
they were increased. These comparisons can be seen in Figure (5.1). Reading the Figure
from left to right, we can make the following inferences: that as β approaches one, both the
number of infected cases and fatalities rises dramatically even with only a small change; as
f is increased, only the number of fatalities increases because f does not affect the number
of S or I; as k is increased, the number of infected and the number of fatalities is greatly
reduced. These graphs allow us to visualize how the transmission term, β, fatality term, f,
and transmission decay rate, k, can affect the overall population.
It may seem too obvious, but it is worth mentioning that attempting to model biologi-
cal data cannot capture how it will actually happen. In general, this can be due to many
reasons which includes, but is not limited to, human error, mutations, immigration, and
unpredictable human reactions. It is especially hard to predict the outcome of any situation
20
22. based on limited knowledge of the situation. The Althaus’ model is a wonderful one to use
for a biological phenomenon such as the spread of EBOV, though the parameters needed to
be changed to more accurately represent the real world data released by the CDC.
Though the Althaus model fit the data at the time very well, it was not able to predict
that the intervention at the time was not enough to control the outbreaks. Althaus’ model
predicted that the outbreaks in Guinea and Sierra Leone would be contained well before
January 2015 and that the outbreak in Liberia would spread without stopping. With their
limited data set, and considering the level of previous outbreaks, it seemed unlikely that the
outbreaks would get much worse.
Looking at Figure (4.1), it is clear that the outbreaks did not begin to level off until over
a year after the initial infections began. From this, we can infer that any models using data
before this time would most likely not be able to accurately predict the outcome, as the
trend would not yet be seen until around this one year mark. It is probable that the Althaus
model could not begin to accurately represent the outbreaks as there had never been one
like it before with this particular disease. However, if such an outbreak would happen again,
the updated model could be useful in determining the dynamics of EBOV. Both past and
present data is useful in making a more accurate model.
The particular way in which this code is designed is to pass in almost any data set of
dates, cases and deaths, and solve for optimal values for the beta, k, and f parameters.
Because of this ability to be transmissible, it would be interesting to solve this system of
differential equations for other data sets. For example, the Althaus paper mentions that
21
23. they base their sigma and gamma values (i.e. infection and incubation period) on a 1995
paper on a similar Ebola strain in Congo. In future work, we could take the data set for that
outbreak and pass it through our models to ensure that we solve for the same parameter
values. We could also examine how well this model predicts behavior for other strains of
Ebola and even other diseases.
Figure 5.1: Left: As β approaches one, the number of infected persons and fatalities rises.
Center: As f increases, the number of deaths increases. However, f does not affect the
number of S or I. Right: As k is increased, the number of infected and the number of
fatalities is greatly reduced.
22
24. Chapter 6
Appendix
Ebola Class Presentation.m
clear all;close all;clc
%Set max time point
Tmax=609;
%Time range where want solution
tspan=0:1:Tmax;
%create vector of initial values for different countries
%1-Guinea, 2-Sierra Leone, 3-Liberia
s(1,1).Guinea = ’Guinea’;
23
25. s(2,1).SierraLeone = ’Sierra Leone’;
s(3,1).Liberia = ’Liberia’;
countries= fieldnames(s);
beta=[.27,.45,.28]; %.27 Guinea; .45 Sierra Leon; .28 Liberia
k=[.0023,.0097,0]; % .0023 Guinea; .0097 Sierra Leon; 0* Liberia
tau=0; %Model Assumption-control measure began after appearance of first infected case;
sigma=1/5.3; %days; based on data from Congo
gamma=1/5.61; %days; ” ” ” ” ”
fata=[.74,.48,.71]; %.74 Guinea; .48 Sierra Leon; .71 Liberia
%Specify INITIAL VALUE
N= (1 ∗ 106
); %total population
S 0 = (N − 1); E 0 = 0; I 0 = 1; R 0 = 0; C 0 = 1; F 0 = 0; %proportional populations
%initial SEIR=[S 0 ; E 0; I 0; R 0]*N; %set initial pop. for each stage
initial SEIR=[S 0 ; E 0; I 0; R 0; C 0; F 0]; %set initial pop. for each stage, used when need
cases and fatalities
country data = xlsread(’previous-case-counts.xlsx’); % data from CDC, previous case
counts
% data from 3/25/14 - 11/25/15, 609 days
24
26. figure()
for i=1:3
param = [N,beta(i),k(i),tau,sigma,gamma,fata(i)];
%Call ODE solver ode45 as follows
% function F=my ebolafun(t,SEIR,N,beta,k,tau,sigma,gamma,f)
[t,SEIR]=ode45(@my ebolafun,tspan,initial SEIR,[],param);
%plot solution components vs. time
%figure(i)
subplot(3,3,i)
plot(t, SEIR(:,1)) ; hold on
plot(t, SEIR(:,2))
plot(t, SEIR(:,3))
plot(t, SEIR(:,4))
plot(t, SEIR(:,5))
plot(t, SEIR(:,6))
xlabel(’Time, t(days)’,’FontSize’,10)
ylabel(’Population of each Stage (S,E,I,R)’,’Fontsize’,10)
title([’Model Population Dynamics for ’,num2str(countriesi)],’Fontsize’,10)
legend(’S-Susceptible’,’E-Exposed’,’I-Infected’,’R-Recovered’,’C-Cases’,’F-Fatalities’,’Location’,’Best’)
25
27. R e=zeros(length(tspan),1);
for j=1:length(tspan)
beta t = beta(i)*exp(-k(i)*(j-tau));
R e(j)=beta t/gamma;
end
subplot(3,3,i+3)
plot(t,R e)
xlabel(’Time from initial breakout, t(days)’,’FontSize’,10)
ylabel(’Effective reproduction number, R e’,’Fontsize’,10)
title([num2str(countriesi)])
subplot(3,3,i+6)
t data=41723:1:42332; % same serial dates as case data
plot(country data(:,1),country data(:,2*i),’ro’); hold on;
plot(country data(:,1),country data(:,(2*i+1)),’ko’); hold on;
axis manual %keep the axis fixed now
plot(t data, SEIR(:,5),’r-’); hold on; % cases
plot(t data, SEIR(:,6),’k–’); hold on; % fatalities
%axis auto
xlabel(’Time, t(days)’,’FontSize’,10)
ylabel(’Individuals’,’FontSize’,10)
26
28. title([num2str(countriesi)])
legend(’Cases’, ’Deaths’, ’Cases Model’, ’Deaths Model’,’Location’,’northwest’)
datetick(’x’, 2)
end
my ebolafun.m
function dSEIR dt=my ebolafun(t,SEIR 0,p)
%t is the time
%SEIR is the state vector
%F is the velocity vector
%N is total pop. size = S+E+I+R
%beta is transmission rate in absence of control interventions
%k: the transmission rate was assumed to decay exponentially at rate k
%tau is the time that control measures were introduced tau <= t
N = p(1); beta = p(2); k = p(3); tau= p(4); sigma= p(5); gamma= p(6); f = p(7);
%Therefore, betat is the effect of the control measures on the
%transmission rate over time, t
beta t= beta ∗ exp(−k ∗ (t − tau));
%sigma is 1/”the average duration of incubation”
%gamma is 1/”the average duration of infectiousness”
27
29. %f is the fatality rate
S=SEIR 0(1);
E=SEIR 0(2);
I=SEIR 0(3);
R=SEIR 0(4);
dS dt=-beta t*S*I/N;
dE dt=beta t*S*I/N-sigma*E;
dI dt=sigma*E-gamma*I;
dR dt=(1-f)*gamma*I;
dC dt=sigma*E;
dF dt=f*gamma*I;
%dSEIR dt=[dS dt; dE dt; dI dt; dR dt];
dSEIR dt=[dS dt; dE dt; dI dt; dR dt; dC dt; dF dt];
end
% function R e=my ebolafun2(S,N,gamma,beta t)
% R e=beta t*S/(gamma*N);
% end
28
30. min ebola.m
function SSE=min ebola(p0)
beta=p0(1);
k=p0(2);
f=p0(3);
% parameters that are fixed
tau=0;
sigma=1/5.3;
gamma=1/5.61;
N= (1 ∗ 106
); %total population
param=[N;beta;k;tau;sigma;gamma;f];
country=8:9;
% Guin=2:3; Lib=4:5; SLeo=6:7; Tot=8:9;
country data = xlsread(’previous-case-counts.xlsx’); % data from CDC, previous case counts
CD data=country data(:,country); % only using guinea data for now
t data = country data(:,1);
%Set max time point
Tmax=max(t data);
29
31. %Time range where want solution
tspan=0:1:Tmax;
%Specify INITIAL VALUE
S 0 = (N − 1); E 0 = 0; I 0 = 1; R 0 = 0; C 0 = 1; F 0 = 0; %proportional populations
initial SEIR=[S 0 ; E 0; I 0; R 0; C 0; F 0]; %set initial pop. for each stage, used when need
cases and fatalities
[t,SEIRCD output]=ode45(@my ebolafun,tspan,initial SEIR,[],param);
CD output = [t, SEIRCD output(:,5:6)];
% From our model, get the dates that we have data for
num timepts=length(t data);
same CD output=zeros(num timepts,2);
for i=1:num timepts
same CD output(i,:)=CD output(t data(i)+1,2:3);
end
err = CD data(:,1:2)-same CD output(:,1:2);
SSE = sum(sum(err.2
));
Ebola fit.m
30
32. clear all; close all; clc;
country=8:9;
% Guin=2:3; Lib=4:5; SLeo=6:7; Tot=8:9;
country data = xlsread(’previous-case-counts.xlsx’); % data from CDC, previous case counts
% country data = flipud(country data); % flip the data so that time is going from old to
new
CD data=country data(:,country); % only using guinea data for now
t data = country data(:,1);
%Set max time point
Tmax=max(t data);
%Time range where want solution
tspan=0:1:Tmax;
% parameters that can change, give them initial values
% beta=0.2238;
% k=0.0026;
% f=.74;
%optimized values after first pass:
beta=0.2801;
31
33. k= 0.0019;
f=.6662;
p0=[beta,k,f]; % initial guess for beta
% search for the parameters that give the minimum error to fitting our data
[p final,fits]=fminsearch(@ min ebola,p0);
beta=p final(1);
k=p final(2);
f=p final(3);
% now plot the data and model results using the fitted parameters we calculated
% use fitted parameters now
tau=0;
sigma=1/5.3;
gamma=1/5.61;
N= (1 ∗ 106
); %total population
param=[N;beta;k;tau;sigma;gamma;f];
%Specify INITIAL VALUE
S 0=(N-1); E 0=0; I 0=1; R 0=0; C 0=1; F 0=0; %proportional populations
32
34. initial SEIR=[S 0 ; E 0; I 0; R 0; C 0; F 0]; %set initial pop. for each stage, used when need
cases and fatalities
[t,SEIRCD output]=ode45(@my ebolafun,tspan,initial SEIR,[],param);
figure(1)
plot(t data, CD data(:,1),’ro’); hold on;
plot(t data, CD data(:,2),’ko’);
axis manual %keep the axis fixed now
plot(t, SEIRCD output(:,5),’r-’);
plot(t, SEIRCD output(:,6),’k–’);
xlabel(’time (days)’,’FontSize’,14)
ylabel(’Number of People in Population’,’FontSize’,14)
title(’Ebola in All 3 Countries’,’FontSize’,18)
legend(’WHO-Cases’,’WHO-Deaths’,’Predicted Case’,’Predicted Deaths’,’Location’,’Best’)
stability simulation.m clear all; close all;
%Parameters optimized from data in all three countries
beta0=0.3271; k0=0.0025; f0=0.4065;
sigma= 1/5.3; gamma= 1/5.61; tau= 0; N= (1 ∗ 106
); %set parameters
33
35. %Set max time point
Tmax=610;
%Time range where want solution
tspan=0:1:Tmax;
%Initially start with one infectious case
S 0=(N-1); E 0=0; I 0=1; R 0=0; C 0=1; D 0=0;
initial SEIR=[S 0 ; E 0; I 0; R 0; C 0; D 0];
n = 20; %number of points to range parameter over
%range beta, k and f from 1/2 parameter to 2 times parameter
beta range=linspace((beta0*0.5),(beta0*2),n);
k range=linspace((k0*0.5),(k0*2),n);
f range=linspace((f0*0.5),(f0*2),n);
CD vary=zeros(3,n); % initialize vector to store parameter, cases and deaths
%store the parameter being varied in the first row of CD vary
CD vary(1,:)=beta range;
%CD vary(1,:)=k range;
%CD vary(1,:)=f range;
34
36. for i=1:n;
%select the varied parameter
beta=beta range(i);
%k=k range(i);
%f=f range(i);
param=[N;beta;k0;tau;sigma;gamma;f0]; %store in one vector
[t,SEIRCD output]=ode45(@my ebolafun,tspan,initial SEIR,[],param);
%Get the last case and death from the SEIRCD output.
CD vary(2,i)=SEIRCD output(Tmax+1,5);
CD vary(3,i)=SEIRCD output(Tmax+1,6);
end
figure(1)
ax = gca;
plot(CD vary(1,:),CD vary(2,:),’r-’,’LineWidth’,4); hold on
plot(CD vary(1,:),CD vary(3,:),’k–’,’LineWidth’,4); hold on
xlabel(’beta’,’FontSize’,20)
ylabel(’Individuals’,’FontSize’,20)
title(’Ebola in all 3 Countries, Vary f’, ’FontSize’,20)
35
38. Bibliography
[1] Althaus CL. Estimating the Reproduction Number of Ebola Virus (EBOV) During the
2014 Outbreak in West Africa. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep 2 . Edition 1. doi:
10.1371/currents.outbreaks.91afb5e0f279e7f29e7056095255b288.
[2] Bredow, Rafaela Von, and Veronika Hackenbroch. ”Interview with Ebola Discoverer
Peter Piot.” SPIEGEL ONLINE INTERNATIONAL. SPIEGEL ONLINE, 26 Sept.
2014. Web. 03 Dec. 2015. ¡http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-
peter-piot-discoverer-of-the-ebola-virus-a-993111.html¿.
[3] Moore, Peter. ”The Little Book of Pandemics: 50 of the World’s Most Virulent Plagues
and Infectious Diseases.” Fall River Press, 2009: 29-31. Print.
[4] ”Modeling the Spread of Ebola.” Web. 09 Feb. 2015.
¡http://www.math.washington.edu/ morrow/mcm/mcm15/38725paper.pdf¿.
[5] ”Ebola Virus Disease.” World Health Organization. WHO, Aug. 2015. Web. 02 Dec.
2015. ¡http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/¿.
37
39. [6] ”Freqently Asked Questions on Ebola Virus Disease.” World Health Organization.
WHO, Aug. 2015. Web. 02 Dec. 2015. ¡http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/faq-
ebola/en/¿.
[7] ”Previous Case Counts.” Center for Disease Control. CDC, 3 Dec. 2015. Web. 3
Dec. 2015. ¡http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/previous-case-
counts.html¿.
38