This session will provide an overview of what climate change means for agriculture in Eastern Ontario. What does current scientific understanding predict for this region when it comes to growing conditions in the coming years? Concepts of adaptation and mitigation will be discussed, providing producers with practical suggestions to meet challenges and access opportunities that might arise from climate change. Current research and policy initiatives, designed to contribute to the resilience of the agriculture sector, will be introduced.

1. Adapting to Ontario’s Changing Climate
Eastern Ontario Local Food Conference
Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change
November 23, 2016

2. 2
Global Context – Changing Climate
• Burning of fossil fuels since the industrial revolution has
released large amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that
were trapped in Earth's crust for millions of years
• By trapping heat, we are heating up the atmosphere,
which has effect of changing climate patterns
• Earth’s atmosphere today contains 42 per
cent more carbon dioxide (CO2) than 200
years ago
• Projections suggest a 3.5-40C degree increase
in average surface temperature by the end of
this century
• World faces increase in weather variability/
extreme weather events as result of climate
change such as floods, extreme heat, and drought
Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report – Working Group 1 – The
Physical Science Basis, 2013

3. Ontario Context – Changing Climate
• Average temperatures in Ontario
have increased by 1.4ºC since
1948
• Scientists project that by 2050, the
average annual temperature in
Ontario will increase by 2.5°C to
3.7°C
3

4. Impacts vary on a
regional scale and are
already affecting every
economic sector (human
health, energy,
transportation, tourism,
recreation etc.)
Changing Climate – Impacts
4
Rising average temperatures lead to
more widespread extreme weather
events, like severe storms, flooding,
droughts, and heat waves.
Ontario has already experienced decreased
winter tourism (availability of snow) and
increased summer tourism.

5. 5
A warm March and a severe frost
in April 2012 saw over 80% of
Ontario’s apple crop lost to frost
damage
Hail damage to
vineyard
An increase in variability is proving challenging for the agricultural sector (e.g.
wine industry and types of grapes grown; asparagus may be ready for harvest
sooner, or prone to late frost damage).
Increased climate variability (e.g.
extreme heat/drought) make crops
more vulnerable to pest infestations
(Corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea
pictured below).
Climate Variability

6. 6
Flooding Events
In May 2013, heavy rains and subsequent flooding caused Thunder Bay
to declare a state of emergency after homes and infrastructure were
flooded and sewer systems overloaded as parts of the city got more than
100mm of rain. Pump failures at Thunder Bay’s sewage treatment plant
also resulted in the flooding of hundreds of basements.
In August 2014, the City of Burlington received
nearly two months of rain (191mm) in
approximately eight hours. The record rainfall
caused flooding and damages across the city.
Roads, highways, and more than 3,000 homes
were flooded. The Insurance Bureau of Canada
estimated insured losses to be just over $90M.
In September 2016, both Windsor and Tecumseh declared a state of
emergency after more than 190mm fell in Tecumseh, while 80mm of
rainfall was recorded in Windsor over two days. The rainstorm
inundated streets, flooded hundreds of homes, impacted businesses,
and halted transportation routes around the community.

7. There have been a number of catastrophic events in recent
years that can be attributed to increasingly variable and
volatile weather patterns:
• In June 2010, a wind and thunderstorm event in
Leamington resulted in $120M in insurance claims.
• An August 2011 tornado in Goderich resulted in heavy
damage to the city’s downtown core and disruptions in
electricity and natural gas utilities.
• In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy devastated portions
of the Caribbean and the Mid-Atlantic and the
Northeastern United States, including impacts in
Southeastern Canada and the US mid-west. Economic
impacts from losses due to damage and business
interruption are currently being estimated between $30
and $50 billion.
Severe Storms
Photo: Tornado damage in Vaughan, 2009
7

8. Economic Impacts
8
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Loss + Loss Adjustment
Expenses
Source: IBC Facts Book, PCS, CatIQ, Swiss Re, Munich Re & Deloitte
Values in 2015 $ CAN
Note: not all extreme weather is climate-change induced
Quebec Floods
Eastern Ice Storm
Ontario Wind and Rain
Alberta and Toronto Floods
Ontario is experiencing the impacts of climate change across all sectors.
$Billion

9. What Does It Mean For Ontario?
• Decision-makers and community leaders do not always have access to the
right information and tools, and there is a lack of expertise/capacity across
sectors.
• This means that decisions, related to Ontario’s long-term food security,
infrastructure investments and resource management from the boreal forests
to the Great lakes, are not fully taking climate change into account.
• In the face of a changing climate the province needs to come to grips with:
• How to support communities to plan for a changing climate
• How to ensure long-term return on investments
• Ensuring infrastructure is not built to the wrong standards
• Our agricultural sector plans accordingly to limit impacts and maximise
opportunities
9

10. HOW IS ONTARIO PLANNING FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE?
10

11. Adapting to Climate Impacts
• Building on the momentum created by the Expert Panel, the province released
Climate Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan in 2011.
• Climate Ready outlined a total of 37 actions to be taken by 10 ministries
(MOECC, MNRF, MEDEI (previously MOI and MEDTE), MTO, Education,
Tourism, MNDM, MMAH, OMAFRA), over the course of four years, 2011 to
2014.
• The plan included as one of the 5 main goals to “achieve a better
understanding of future climate change impacts across the province”, and
actions including:
• Enhancing Climate Related Monitoring
• Undertaking Research Partnerships for Climate Modelling
• Establish a Climate Modelling Collaborative
• The Plan served as a first step in taking action across government on
adaptation. It contains a number of actions to be taken by ministries including
two overarching actions to ensure the ongoing mainstreaming of impacts and
adaptation across government.
11

12. 12
Climate Ready – Vision & Goals

13. Current Government Commitment
The government has identified adaptation as a priority:
• Mandate letter (2014): “Supporting the Secretary of the Cabinet and the President of the Treasury Board
to ensure climate change is taken into account in the government decision-making process. This will
include …adaptation considerations for public infrastructure investments.
• Climate Change Strategy (2015 ): the province committed to“ establish a climate change modelling
collaborative … a one-window source for climate data. .. to help both public and private sectors make
informed and evidence-based decisions regarding adapting to climate change and increasing resilience;”
and to “integrate climate change adaptation considerations in infrastructure decision-making.”
• Ontario’s Climate Change Action Plan (2016): release a new Climate Change Adaptation Plan in
2017, which will include details of the Climate Change Modelling Consortium.
• September 2016 mandate letter: “Working with partner ministers, stakeholders and Indigenous partners,
develop a Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Ontario that sets out priorities and actions Ontario will
take to adapt to the effects of Climate Change.”
13