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Scenario Analysis: Planning for Uncertain Futures

The document discusses scenario analysis as a tool for navigating uncertainty and predicting multiple possible futures in market conditions. It emphasizes the importance of diverse expertise and the use of frameworks like STEEP to identify critical uncertainties, particularly in the context of rural wireless broadband. Strategies are proposed for managing varying scenarios, highlighting the need for proactive planning in response to extreme market conditions.

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Scenario AnalysisAugust JacksonGlobal Market & Competitive Intelligence#scipdc
It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future.
Human Cognition, Systems Complexity and Fate Conspire to Thwart Our Efforts at Prediction
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”Western Union internal memo1876
Lehman Brothers bankruptcy leads to a near collapse of global finance.
Scenario Analysis Overcomes Limitations of Traditional ForecastsHigh UncertaintyUnlikely, Impactful EventsDifferences of Opinion
Scenario Analysis Does NOT Predict the Future!
Ingredients and Outcomes of a Good Scenario Exercise
Scenario Analysis Gives us a View of Multiple Possible FuturesExtreme Positive StateCritical Uncertainty 2Extreme Negative StateExtreme Negative StateExtreme Positive StateCritical Uncertainty 1
Stages to Scenario Analysis
Use KITs to Define Your Scope
Example: Rural Wireless Broadband
Diversity of Expertise and Opinion Are Key to Identifying Critical FactorsInternal ExpertsTechnical, Engineering, R&DMarketing & SalesManagementExternal ExpertsAcademicsCustomers
Use Delphi Method to Engage Experts
STEEP Framework Captures External Factors
An Example: STEEP for Rural Wireless Broadband
The Interplay of Critical Uncertainties Will Define Possible Alternative FuturesA Hundred Flowers Bloom Competition between licensed and unlicensed broadband
Significant 4G build out4G Goes Rural Incumbent wireless carriers compete w/RLECs
Wired voice & broadband becomes the exceptionUSF Available for WirelessUniversal Service Fund PolicyRLEC’s Dream Broadband remains very expensive, limited market penetration
High ROC for RLECs for fixed-lineBYO Broadband Many rural markets ceded to unlicensed providers
Municipal fiber in larger rural communitiesUSF Limited to Fixed LineLicense RegimeUnlicensed Use for WANAvailability of “White Space” Spectrum
Develop Strategies for Each Scenario4G Goes Rural Create “cut the cord” bundles for rural markets