A presentation on the scenarios to consider with respect to enhancing the future of rural areas in Africa.

1. Introduction to scenarios
thinking and planning
By Katindi S. Njonjo

2. What are Scenarios
scenarios are stories about the future
scenarios take into cognisance past events
and forces to determine how these have
shaped the present.
This information is combined with
thorough research/knowledge and acute
intuitive insight to depict things that are
‘inescapable’, most important and
uncertain, describing how these might
evolve in the future.

3. Multiple
Paths
Current realities
(Mental maps)
Many
futures,
different
truths
and
realities
Source: Adopted from Rafael Ramirez
Pastevents&
forcesshaping
thepresent
Time
Bring the future back into the present
(back-casting) to strategize
Learningjourney
withhighlevel
analysis
Overall Scenarios framework
The present
Alternative Future Images

4. wps.cn/moban

5. Why do we do Scenarios
 The world is very complex, fast changing,
unpredictable and full of uncertainty
 Most of us look to political leaders, civil society,
religious leaders etc to provide comfort and
certainty
 Because many have not grasped the complexities
of our time they continue to use their former
skills, expertise and old knowledge to solve new,
more complex problems
 No one admits that they have no adequate
answers. Each new failure on their part to deliver
on their promises increases mistrust, lowers
legitimacy and increases indifference
wps.cn/moban

6. Johari window
Company Logo

7. The Iceberg Analogy
Events
Patters of
behavior
Structure of the
system, causal
relationships, driving
forces, assumptions
Increasing
the ability
to
influence
and learn
Adopted from Senge (1990)

8. Why scenarios
 Human beings keep
looking for certainty
 So we keep looking
for a 3
 However, the world
is not liner and
static.
 It is fast changing,
unpredictable and
full of uncertainty
America will always be ruled by a white
president!

9. What if blacks
outnumber us and
one day America is
ruled by a black!
What if the next
president is a
woman!
America will
always be ruled
by a white
What if?!
*&%$@*?
Scenarios as the art of re-perceiving

10. Vickers triangle... When do we do scenarios
Strategizing
scenarios
Instrumenta
l judgment
(=‘actions”)
Value
judgment
(=‘Values”)
Reality
judgment
(= ‘Facts’)
Ability to
do
something
about it
Norm creating
scenarios
Value
judgment
(=
‘values’)
Reality
judgment
(= ‘Facts’)
Instrument
al judgment
(=‘actions”)
Evaluating
the reality
Sense-making
scenarios
Reality
judgment
(= ‘Facts’)
Value
judgment
(=‘Values”)
Instrumental
judgment
(=‘actions”)
Assessing
the facts

11. Sense-making / uncertainty Projects
• These are
scenarios that
help look for
ways to survive
in a world that
one does not
control
• They describe a
range of
uncertainties
• Good for
exploring
organizational
survival
Surfacing
assumptio
ns
Deepeni
ng
causal
links
Re-
framing
and
sensitizin
g
‘seeing’
and
anticipati
ng
Source: Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework, Louis van der Merwe

12. Nature
ofeconomy
Umbrella
state
New
state
Homestead
economy
Modernized
economy
Flying
Geese
of state
KATIBA
AVENUE
EL NINO
ROAD
MAENDELE
O
STREET

13. Inequality
Passive
participation
Active
participation
Equality
. .
.
.
Governance
population
Tsunami scenario
Pond scenario
Water fall scenario
Ocean Scenario

14. Norm Creating Projects
Involving
stakeholders &
challenging
group thinking
Increasing
future
orientation
and team
building
Language
creation,
establishin
g common
ground
and culture
change
Source: Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework, Louis van der Merwe
VISION

15. Is a settlement
negotiated?
Ignorance
is bliss
NO Non –representative government,
non-negotiated resolution not
sustainable.
Is the transition rapid
& decisive? NO
Transition slow
and indecisive
NO
Are the government
policies sustainable?
Flight of the
Flamingo
Ostrich
Lame
duck
Inclusive
democracy
& growth?
Transition rapid but
government pursues
unsustainable, populist
agenda
Government’s policies are
sustainable; the country takes a path
of inclusive democracy and growth
The Mont Fleur
Scenarios
Source: Luis Jimenez – senior VP & chief strategy officer, Pitney Bowe, 2005

16. Strategizing Projects
• Discovering options
• Inventing options
• Re-defining
possible/impossible
distinctions
• Building confidence
to act
• Mapping options
• Testing options
• Engaging others
Source: Scenario-Based Strategy in Practice: A Framework, Louis van der
Merwe

17. Present
The
‘Official’
Future
What scenarios are not: Forecasts!
Source: Adopted from Schwartz (1991)
Forecasting

18. Scenarios contests the planning cycle
 Top management
comes up with 3-5
year plans
 They communicate
the vision to
investors,
journalists,
partners etc
 Budgets are drawn
up , negotiated and
renegotiated
Analyze
Formulate
Implement
Monitor
1 year
Scenarios help you think about the future in other ways beyond budgeting and projections
or forecasting
By the
time this
happens
This is
outdated

19. Success in the future depends not on the
study of the future but on the future
success of decisions taken today…
Angela Wilkinson, Oxford University

20. Thank You