The document discusses the transformative impact of new technologies, particularly the rise of smartwatches, smartphones, and digital media, on individuals and businesses. It highlights the concept of disruptive innovation and its historical examples, illustrating how companies like Nokia and IBM misjudged emerging technologies. The text emphasizes the shift in consumer behavior and business models from the 20th to the 21st century, underlining the importance of adaptation in the face of rapid technological change.

1. WLA/EL INTERNET AND NEW MEDIA SEMINAR
September 2014
Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson
Adjuct, Reykjavík University

2. NEW TECHNOLOGY
UNDERSTANDING
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON
PEOPLE,
BUSINESSES AND
SOCIETY

3. NEW TECHNOLOGY
LIVING IN THE FUTURE

5. Written March 4th 2013

6. WHY IS
2014
THE TIME FOR THE
SMARTWATCH?

8. ADJACENT POSSIBLE
WHEN ALL
THE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES AND
CONDITIONS ARE READY,
NEW INNOVATION WILL EMERGE

10. EXPONENTIAL
GROWTH

11. 30 DOUBLINGS
= BILLION

12. THE SECOND HALF OF THE
iMac
CHESSBOARD
iPhone
Mac OS 9.0.4
500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
Screen - 786K pixels
Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
iOS 4.0
1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory
Screen - 614K pixels
Storage - 32GB Flash Drive
2000 Source: Ars Technical Images: Apple 2010

13. MUSIC
PICTURES
COMMUNICATION
SMARTPHONES
TV SHOWS
MOVIES
BOOKS
THE DIGITAL DECADE
2000 2010

14. SOCIAL MEDIA
14 2000 2010

15. CONTENT CREATION IN THE
20TH CENTURY (BG)
Image from Jyrki J.J. Kasvi

16. 21ST CENTURY – OUCH!
Image from Jyrki J.J. Kasvi

17. HOW DO YOU
RUN A BUSINESS
WHEN EVERYTHING
IS CHANGING?

18. Source: (Christensen, 2000)
THE DISRUPTIVE
INNOVATION THEORY
New organisation can use relatively
simple, convenient, low-cost
innovations to create growth and
triumph over powerful incumbents

19. Source: (Blue Ocean)
VALUE INNOVATION
Instead of focusing on beating the
competition, you focus on making the
competition irrelevant by creating a
leap in value for your buyers, thereby
opening up new market space

20. Stephen Elop,
(former) CEO Nokia

22. IN 2002 NOKIA HAD
35% OF
THE WORLDS
MOBILE MARKET
IN 2006 NOKIA HAD
73.6% OF THE
WORLDS
SMARTPHONE
MARKET

23. Then in January 2007 this guy comes along…

24. Then in January 2007 this guy comes along…

25. DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY
TECHNOLOGY
THAT
CHANGES
EVERYTHING

26. THE IPHONE EFFECT
FROM HARDWARE
TO SOFTWARE
INDUSTRIAL
STRENGTH
OPERATING SYSTEM
PLATFORM FOR APPS

27. HOW DOES
THE COMPETITION
RESPOND?

28. Steve Ballmer CEO of Microsoft, on the iPhone

29. THE ARROGANCE
OF THE PRESENT
WE BASE OUR JUDGEMENT ON
FACTS FROM THE PAST
NOT THE POSSIBILITIES
OF THE FUTURE

30. WE TEND TO
LOOK BACK
THE
UNKNOWN
DAWN OF MAN FUTURE

31. TELEPHONE
(1876)
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings
to be seriously considered as a means of
communication. The device is inherently of
no value to us."
- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

32. "I think there is a world market for maybe
five computers.“
- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
COMPUTERS
(1943)

33. “The horse is here to stay, but the
automobile is only a novelty – a fad”
- The president of the Michigan Savings Bank to advised
Henry Ford's lawyer Horace Rackham not to invest in the
Ford Motor company
CARS
(1885)

34. February 11th 2011, Nokia announced
a partnership with Microsoft

35. http://www.businessinsider.com/iphone-bigger-than-microsoft-2012-2

36. People waiting in line to buy iPhone 6
www.dailymail.co.uk

37. Early 2011, Elop said in a memo they were
standing on a burning platform

38. Resources, Processes and Values
Theory
Resources (what a firm has),
Processes (how a firm does it´s work), and
Values (what a firm wants to do)
collectively defines an organization’s strengths
as well as weaknesses and blind spots
Source: (Christensen, 2000)
The RPV Theory

39. DISRUPTION AHEAD

40. The Invention of the Printing Press
Controlled by those with Power

41. Knowledge Accessible
by the Exclusive Few

42. Portable Knowlege
The Revolution Begins

43. END OF CONTROL

44. UNIVERSAL
ACCESS TO
KNOWLEDGE,
SERVICES AND
OTHER PEOPLE

45. END
OF
CONTROL

46. 2,6 BILLION PEOPLE
ARE CONNECTED
TO THE INTERNET

47. HIERARCHAL NETWORK
20th Century 21th Century

48. THE TRANSFORMATION
DECADE
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
20TH CENTURY
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
21TH CENTURY
2010 2020

49. THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET
BEFORE NOW
Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable

50. CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE
BEFORE NOW
Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture

51. OUR
DEVICES
ARE
GATEWAYS
TO
THE
CLOUD

52. FUNDAMENTAL
SHIFT
IN
PEOPLE’S
BEHAVIOUR

53. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
CONSUMING
CONTENT
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

54. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
PRODUCING
CONTENT
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

55. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
CONNECTING PEOPLE

56. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
DOING BUSINESS

57. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
DOING BUSINESS

58. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
DOING BUSINESS

59. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
DOING BUSINESS

60. 25
CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
BEFORE NOW
Videostores, DVD,
late fees, clutter
Everything, anywhere,
anytime (almost) for rent

61. WHO RENTS DVD ANYMORE?

62. CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR
BEFORE NOW
Printed books, magazines
Digital, automatically
delivered, interactive

63. BOOK STORES SELL COFFEE NOW

64. STORES BECOME FITTING/TRYING ROOMS

65. SHOPPING WITH APPS

66. OWNERLESS LIFESTYLE
BEFORE NOW
Own, store, clutter Rent, subscribe, stream

67. FREEDOM
BEFORE NOW
Car Smartphone

68. TRANSFORMATION
3D PRINTING, ROBOTS
MASS CUSTOMISATION, DESIGN
PERSONAL STREAMING
USER REVIEW
ABUNDANCE
INDUSTRY
MASS PRODUCTION
BROADCASTING
GATEKEEPERS
SACRISTY
20. CENTURY 21. CENTURY

69. “Disruption only happens to
the unprepared”
- Marlier & Pontes.

70. OPPORTUNITY
Flickr photo: Arkadyevna

71. DISRUPTION RULES!
Ólafur Andri
Ragnarsson
@olandri
http://www.olafurandri.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/olandri
http://www.vimeo.com/olandri
http://www.slideshare.net/olandri