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New Technology 2017 L04 Exponential World
The document discusses the exponential growth of technology from the dawn of the 20th century to the present, highlighting the rapid advancement of various technologies and their lifecycle through the S-curve model. It references significant innovations and laws of technological development, such as Moore's Law, which predicts that the number of transistors on integrated circuits will double approximately every 18-24 months. The text also addresses the impact of technology on society, emphasizing both the disruptive and opportunistic aspects of technological evolution.
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New Technology 2017 L04 Exponential World
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- 2. “Everything that canbe invented has been invented” - Purportedly said by Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899
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- 5. Alternating Current PowerPlant at World's Fair, Chicago, 1893.
- 6. TECHNOLOGY AT THEDAWN OF THE 20TH CENTURY
- 7. Now explain tosomeone technology today
- 8. TECHNOLOGY AT THEDAWN OF THE 21ST CENTURY
- 9. OUR VIEW ON TECHNOLOGY ISVERY CONTEMPORARY
- 10. Any sufficiently advancedtechnology is indistinguishable from magic - Arthur C. Clark’s 3rd Law
- 11. CENTURY OF SCIENCEAND TECHNOLOGY Radio Messages Airplanes Ice lolly Ford model T Talking pictures Zipper Stainless steel Tanks Penicillin FM Radio Computers Nuclear fission Ballistic missile Transistor Atom bomb Solar battery PC Integrated circuit Video game consoles GUIs TV ARPANET Laser Altair CD-ROM Mosaic DVD WWW Internet VCR Digital cameras Satellites Mircochip
- 12. “He was thepre-eminent scientist in a century dominated by science. The touchstones of the era — the Bomb, the Big Bang, quantum physics and electronics — all bear his imprint.”
- 13. special theory ofrelativity model of the atom discovery of the electron theory of continental drift nuclear chain reaction discovery of the positron, neutron big bang theory quantum theory uncertainty principle
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- 18. Product Development Products thatare built based on older technologies follow a specific path from initial idea to a mature stable product
- 19. The S-curve Based onthe notion of the Technical Life Cycle Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology
- 20. Improvements in performance varies throughoutthe life of the technology Problem is that people in the R&D phase may not be right in the growth phase The S-curve
- 21. Exponential trends can becomposed of a sequence of S- curves where each curve is faster The S-curve
- 22. Exponential trends can becomposed of a sequence of S- curves where each curve is faster The S-curve
- 23. Technology Life Cycle Describesthe commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life"
- 24. In the earlydays The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market In the later days The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market Technology Life Cycle
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- 26. IBM System/360 360/20 with24K of memory Computers in 1964
- 27. Transistor, 1947 Vacuum tube,1904 THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
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- 29. Transistor, 1947 Integrated circuit,1959 Intel 4004, 1971 Vacuum tube, 1904 THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
- 30. Gordon Moore published anarticle in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”
- 31. Number of transistorson an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
- 32. Number of transistorson an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
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- 37. 1977 Apple II $1,298 4000bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz 2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz 30 years of product improvements
- 38. iPad 2 asfast as Cray 2 supercomputer, fraction of the size Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4 Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 30 years of product improvements
- 39. Slow growth inthe beginning than accelerates Exponential Growth
- 41. IF PRODUCT PERFORMANCEDOUBLES EVERY YEAR IN 10 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE IN 30 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000,000,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE
- 42. Flickr picture by spwelton SECOND HALF OFTHE CHESSBOARD
- 43. The Legend ofthe Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam
- 45. The total amountof rice required to fill a 64- squared chess board is (2^ (64) - 1), which is equal to 18446744073709551615 grains 460 billion tons
- 46. Number of transistorson an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
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- 48. COMPUTERS WILL BEFASTER
- 49. COMPUTERS WILL BESMALLER
- 50. COMPUTERS WILL BECHEAPER
- 51. THINGS THAT ONCEWHERE IMPOSSIBLE BECOME POSSIBLE
- 54. From a 1946Comic strip to CES 2009
- 56. And from 2009to 2014
- 58. ANY NEW TECHNOLOGY THATCOMES TO THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 10 YEARS OLD
- 59. Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/ id2008012_297369.htm Bill Buxton’s Longnose of Innovation The Long Nose of Innovation
- 60. Growth of Technology Evolutionary processes– both biology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e
- 61. Ray Kurzweil onhow technology will transform us (from TED.com)
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- 64. DESIGN PRODUCTS WITHTECHNOLOGY OF THE FUTURE IN MIND
- 65. TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS AREUSUALLY RIGHT, JUST WRONG IN TIME
- 66. MOST PRODUCTS FAIL BECAUSEALL THE ENABLING FACTORS ARE IN PLACE WHEN NEEDED
- 67. The Law ofAccelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
- 68. “An analysis ofthe history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common- sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).” - Ray Kurzweil
- 74. Working in anexponential industry with a liner view is deadly Disruption
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- 77. Finance Healthcare Retail TransportationEducation ? Any industry
- 78. Disruptive stress or opportunity Growthof technology Our view of the world
- 79. DISRUPTIVE STRESS TECHNOLOGY ISCAUSING PROBLEMS ESTABLISHED COMPANIES ARE THREATENED BUSINESS MODELS BECOME IRRELEVANT LAWS BECOME USELESS
- 80. DISRUPTIVE OPPURTINTY NEVER BEFOREIN HISTORY HAS SOME MUCH OPPORTUNITY BE AVAILABLE TO SO MANY PEOPLE
- 81. Is this evolutionof technology good?
- 82. Technology is neither goodnor bad; nor is it neutral Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology
- 83. Why did smartwatchesappear in 2014 when the idea came in the 50s QUESTION
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