History has many examples of powerful companies that seem to be unbeatable. Then in a short time they become irrelevant due to new companies with new ideas. One of the factors in such transformation is technology. Never in history has technological change been so important in building and destroying companies. We look at few examples of successful companies that fail to address the chaning times and become disrupted. We also look at why technology emerges when it does and why some ideas can only be realised when certain conditions are met. In this first lecture we set the tone for the course and define the themes that we will be looking at.

1. NEW TECHNOLOGY
2016

2. Ólafur Andri Ragnarsson

4. LECTURE L01
INTRODUCTION

5. Stephen Elop,
CEO Nokia

7. In 2002 Nokia had 35% of
the worlds mobile market
In 2006 Nokia had 73.6% of the
worlds smartphone market

8. Falling from glory
Nokia stock price 2007-2011

9. 1871: Founded. Spends the next century making tyres, boots and cables.
1987: Launches first phone. The Mobira Cityman weighs almost 1kg.
1992: Sells non-mobile divisions and launches first digital GSM phone, the
Nokia 1011.
2000: Stock market value hits 186bn euros. Now worth 11bn euros.
2003: Basic 1100 phone launched. Goes on to sell 250 million units and
become the world's most popular consumer electronic device.
2011: Abandons Symbian mobile phone operating software and switches
to the Windows platform instead.
Source: Reuters/Nokia
History of a survivor

10. The iPhone Effect

11. Shift in power
Source: Google

12. Shift in power

13. Early 2011, Elop said
in a memo they were
standing on a
burning platform

14. How did we get to this point? Why did we fall behind when the world
around us evolved?
This is what I have been trying to understand. I believe at least some
of it has been due to our attitude inside Nokia. We poured gasoline on
our own burning platform. I believe we have lacked accountability and
leadership to align and direct the company through these disruptive
times. We had a series of misses. We haven't been delivering
innovation fast enough. We're not collaborating internally.
Nokia, our platform is burning.
Elop’s Memo - excerpts
http://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2011/feb/09/nokia-burning-platform-memo-elop

15. February 11th 2011, Nokia announced
a partnership with Microsoft

16. September 3rd 2013, Microsoft bought Nokia’s Devices
and service business for $7.2 billion

17. Is this new…?

18. Western Union 1878
7,500 offices
12.000 employees
200,000 miles of cable

19. https://thepoliticalcarnival.net/tag/western-union/

20. Alexander G. Bell, 1876

21. "This 'telephone' has too many
shortcomings to be seriously considered
as a means of communication. The
device is inherently of no value to us."
- Western Union internal memo, 1876.

23. Actually this is not even rare…

24. Britannica 1990
Sales: $650 million

26. Taken from Mary Meeker’s State of the Internet

27. Printed books, sold in stores Online, access everywhere,
updated in real-time,
crowdsourced
THEN NOW

28. And again…

29. In January 2010, Blockbuster
operated 5,200 stores worldwide

30. By September 2010, Blockbuster
files for bankruptcy

32. TECHNOLOGY
IS ONE OF THE
MAJOR
FACTORS IN
CHANGE

33. Today 3.4 billion people connect to the Internet and in the next few years 3
billions will connect
There are more mobile devices connecting to the Internet than computers
Printed newspapers and magazines are going out of business, those who
survive will go online
Bookstores are closing as sales of books decline
CD sales are dropping rapidly as online streaming increases
TV stations need to go on the internet or out of business
Social networks are shaping our lives in ways we never imagined
Amazon sells more digital books than printed books
Over 6 billion hours of video are watched each month on YouTube
Self-driving cars are taking to the roads
People are starting to lose jobs because of robots
Every day 864 million people log on to Facebook each day
People are tracking the health and activity with sensors and gathering
statistics in the cloud

34. UNDERSTANDING
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS
AND THEIR IMPACT ON
PEOPLE,
BUSINESSES
AND SOCIETY

35. CAN WE
LOOK FORWARD
3-5 YEARS
TO SEE COMING
CHANGES

36. LIVING IN THE FUTURE

38. Written March 4th 2013

39. WHY WAS
2014
THE TIME FOR THE
SMARTWATCH?

42. This was in 1991…

43. Then in 2015 this happens…

47. Is Virtual Reality really real or just fake?

49. WHY IS
2016
THE TIME FOR
VIRTUAL REALITY?

50. ADJACENT POSSIBLE
WHEN ALL
THE ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES AND
CONDITIONS ARE READY,
NEW INNOVATION WILL EMERGE

52. EXPONENTIAL
GROWTH

53. 2000 2010
iMac iPhone
iMac G3
Mac OS 9.0.4
500 MHz PowerPC G3 CPU, 128MB Memory
Screen - 786K pixels
Storage - 30GB Hard Drive
iPhone 4 iOS 4.0
1 Ghz ARM A4 CPU, 512MB Memory
Screen - 614K pixels
Storage - 32GB Flash Drive
THE SECOND HALF OF THE
CHESSBOARD

54. MUSIC
PICTURES
COMMUNICATION
SMARTPHONES
TV SHOWS
MOVIES
BOOKS
THE DIGITAL DECADE
2000 2010

55. 2000 2010
SOCIAL MEDIA

56. 3+ BILLION PEOPLE
ARE CONNECTED
TO THE INTERNET

57. THE
DIGITAL DECADE
THE CONTENT
ESCAPES
THE FORM
INTERNET
DISRUPTION
BEGINS
1900 2000
From hierarchical structure to networks
From broadcasting to streaming - long tail
From Read-only culture to read-write culture
The Move to Networks
THE
TRANSFORMATION
DECADE
BUSINESS MODELS
CHANGE
SMARTPHONES
REAL TIME SOFTWARE
CLOUD AND AI
2010

58. HIERARCHAL NETWORK
20th Century 21th Century

59. THE TRANSFORMATION
DECADE
2010 2020
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
20TH CENTURY
BUSINESS
MODELS OF THE
21TH CENTURY

60. MANY 2 MANY:
PEER INTERACTION
ESTABLISHED
BUSINESS MODELS
GET DISRUPTED
READ WRITE CULTURE
ONE 2 MANY:
BROADCASTING
BUSINESS
MODELS GET
ESTABLISHED
READ ONLY CULTURE
BEFORE NOW
CONTROLLED BY
GATEKEEPRS
CONTROLLED BY
CONSUMERS

61. Desktops, heavy laptops Lighter, smaller, portable
BEFORE NOW
THE WORLD IN YOUR POCKET

62. Keyboard, mouse Touch, sound, gesture
BEFORE NOW
CHANGE IN USER EXPERIENCE

63. OUR
DEVICES
ARE
GATEWAYS
TO
THE
CLOUD

64. UNIVERSAL
ACCESS TO
KNOWLEDGE,
SERVICES AND
OTHER PEOPLE

65. END
OF
CONTROL

66. FUNDAMENTAL
SHIFT
IN
PEOPLE’S
BEHAVIOUR

67. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
CONSUMING
CONTENT
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

68. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
PRODUCING
CONTENT
Picture by Flickr user Shaggyshoo

69. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
CONNECTING PEOPLE

70. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
DOING BUSINESS

71. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
DOING BUSINESS

72. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
DOING BUSINESS

73. FUNDAMENTAL
CHANGE IN
DOING BUSINESS

74. 25
Videostores, DVD,
late fees, clutter
Everything, anywhere,
anytime (almost) for rent
BEFORE NOW
CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

75. WHO RENTS DVD ANYMORE?

76. Printed books, magazines
Digital, automatically
delivered, interactive
BEFORE NOW
CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR

77. BOOK STORES SELL COFFEE NOW

78. STORES BECOME FITTING/TRYING ROOMS

79. SHOPPING WITH APPS

80. DELIVERY SERVICES

81. Own, store, clutter Rent, subscribe, stream
OWNERLESS LIFESTYLE
BEFORE NOW

82. FREEDOM
BEFORE NOW
Car Smartphone

83. 20. CENTURY 21. CENTURY
TRANSFORMATION
3D PRINTING, ROBOTS
MASS CUSTOMISATION, DESIGN
PERSONAL STREAMING
ABUNDANCE
USER REVIEW
INDUSTRY
MASS PRODUCTION
BROADCASTING
SACRISTY
GATEKEEPERS

84. HOW DO YOU
RUN A BUSINESS
WHEN EVERYTHING
IS CHANGING?

85. “Disruption only happens to
the unprepared”
- Marlier & Pontes.